Luis Guillorme
Maybe this is just the excitement which comes from Opening Day. Certainly, that is amplified by new ownership, the Francisco Lindor extension, and Jacob deGrom taking the mound. However, taking everything into account, this New York Mets team is the best one we have seen since 2015 and probably 2006.
Like most times the Mets are good, they are going to be led by pitching. Their starting staff is great, and when healthy, it is the best in baseball. Part of the reason why is deGrom is still the best pitcher in baseball. Behind him right now is Marcus Stroman. Stroman has made adjustments and added new pitches, and he looks set for a career year. That is really saying something considering he has been a gamer his entire career, and he was the World Baseball Classic MVP.
Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco may be the two most underrated pitchers in baseball. Looking at their FIP, they pitch at or near an ace level. In this rotation, they may be no better than third or fourth starters. It’s not just doing deGrom-Stroman-Syndergaard-Carrasco. This is one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball.
Behind that quartet is Taijuan Walker who was once a top 100 prospect, and he seems poised to take a big step forward after using analytics to help him improve. After Walker, the Mets have David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto, each of whom could be around a three in most rotations. For the Mets, they will eventually be on the outside looking in.
They are all going to be better pitchers because they have the tandem of James McCann and Tomas Nido behind the plate. Both of these players are strong catchers who are excellent pitch framers. Having catchers like that behind the plate make good pitchers even better. When your starting pitching is great and operating at a high level, you are going to win a lot of games.
This is paired with an incredible lineup. They Mets have an embarrassment of riches on that front. Consider Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have each been All-Star lead-off hitters, and they aren’t even the Mets best lead-off hitter. That’s Brandon Nimmo. With that group plus Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith, their 1-6 of their lineup can and probably should be hitting in the middle of the order.
Now, this Mets team isn’t perfect. Far from it. The first problem is their bullpen. The good news on that front is between Edwin Diaz and Trevor May, they have the last two innings covered well. The hope is at least one of Dellin Betances, Miguel Castro, or Jeurys Familia can figure it out to become that seventh inning reliever. That is at least until Seth Lugo is good to return. When that happens the Mets bullpen will be in great shape.
Another factor there is the Mets have some other interesting options. Sooner or later, Drew Smith will be healthy and ready to rejoin the bullpen. It should also be noted when the Mets have their full rotation, someone like Lucchesi can move down to the bullpen where his churve could be a weapon on par with Lugo’s curveball.
The other issue is the defense. Simply put, having J.D. Davis at third is unacceptable. He can’t remotely field the position. Having Dominic Smith behind him makes the left side defense one of the worst in baseball. To that, they may not be the worst in the division with the Atlanta Braves probably being worse with Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna.
It’s very possible Brandon Nimmo can succeed with positioning in center. After all, he’s had positive OAAs in center most of his career, and he does have the speed for the position. Jeff McNeil seems more comfortable at second, and while Alonso has his defensive issues, he is quite adept and receiving throws around first.
While the lineup has serious defensive issues, the bench does not. Luis Guillorme is a Gold Glove caliber defender. Albert Almora and Kevin Pillar are also quite good. With the lead, we can and should see Luis Rojas run all three out with Smith moving to first base. When that happens, the Mets defensive alignment turns from questionable to really strong.
Therein lies the key. Aside from health, Rojas is going to be the biggest key to this Mets season. He is going to need a deft touch as to when to utilize his defensive replacements. He and Jeremy Hefner are also going to have to get their rotation healthy through the season, which is all the more challenging because of the shortened season last year. They are also going to have to find the right mix in the bullpen while making sure they don’t overuse their best relievers.
Right now, the Mets have the right mix to have a great season. They also have an owner willing to invest in the team, and they have Sandy Alderson in charge, who we know will not be shy making a key trade or two to improve this Mets roster.
Looking at the Braves, their pitching has durability issues, and their defensive issues may be worse than the Mets. The Phillies don’t have the starting pitching, and their bullpen was a disaster last year. The Marlins are young and not deep. The Nationals still don’t know what they are going at key positions on the field.
Taking everything into account, the Mets are the best team in the National League East. If Rojas is up to the task, and there is every reason to believe he will be, the Mets are well poised to return to the postseason again and let their pitching take them back to the World Series.
Imagine for a second criticizing Luis Guillorme‘s defense while at the same time praising J.D. Davis. Now, imagine that coming from a Mets coach.
Absurd, right? Well beyond absurd. No one in their right mind would ever do that. Right?
Sadly, it’s true. That’s what Gary Disarcina did. Sorry, Mets INFIELD COACH Gary Disarcina.
Disarcina spoke about how Guillorme has limited range and how he should learn first base to become a more versatile utility player. Yes, it was couched as a positive, but saying your second best defensive infielder has limited range is an unnecessary criticism.
Gold Glove play by Guillorme pic.twitter.com/tdazv3cwaa
— MetsFanMania (@MetsFanMania) March 14, 2021
Luis Guillorme can pitch and make great plays in the field. Versatility >>> pic.twitter.com/uzEQkSyYb2
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 11, 2020
Guillorme wasn’t the only player Disarcina critiqued. He also spoke about Davis’ defense. Now, given how he was critical of Guillorme, you could only imagine what he had to say about Davis.
As reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Disarcina said, “he’s been ‘pleased’ with Davis’ work [at third] this spring.” He also spoke about analytics helping Davis and that Davis has “definitely improved.”
The article also spoke about wanting to make Davis work at third because they want to keep his bat in the lineup and Guillorme on the bench.
That’s right. The Mets are actively ignoring Guillorme continuing to prove himself as an everyday player to make something work that hasn’t. Remember, Davis has been among the worst defenders in Mets history.
Now, they have Disarcina saying Guillorme has poor range and needs to learn first to become more versatile while saying he’s pleased with Davis’ progress. Maybe we should consider the source.
Disarcina was the bench coach who couldn’t properly run QC leading to Jay Bruce batting out of order. He’s also been completely unable to help Mets infielders defensively.
Remember, Disarcina has been coaching Davis for two years now, and Davis has only regressed. Jeff McNeil was a good third baseman, and he struggled under Disarcina’s tutelage last year.
There’s also Amed Rosario. Rosario was an exceptionally gifted prospect who many thought could win a Gold Glove one day. Instead, while working with Disarcina, Rosario was actually the worst defensive shortstop in baseball and fourth worst defender overall.
This same coach is now going to say Guillorme has limited range while working on his versatility to be a better bench player? He’s going to say he’s finally getting through to Davis?
It’s an embarrassing series of statements devoid of any credibility. It really only highlights how poor of a coach Disarcina has been and just which direction the Mets want to go.
At this point, they’d rather try to go with someone who is among the worst fielders in Mets history over the better player who has earned the job. For some reason, the Mets and Disarcina thought they should prop up one player while taking subtle shots at the better player.
It’s ridiculous and hopefully dishonest.
While Luis Guillorme understandably grabbed all the headlines, he was not the only Mets player who impressed. Corey Oswalt also had a strong performance.
Oswalt pitched two scoreless innings striking out five of the six batters he faced. It was a reminder Oswalt may still have an impact at the MLB level.
At this point in his career, it is difficult to say he’s been good. There have been glimpses here and there, but overall, as his career 63 ERA+ would indicate, he’s struggled.
One of the biggest reasons why is how he’s been used, or better put, abused, by the Mets. He’s sat unused for far too long stretches, had him pitch on three or fewer days rest, and they’ve bounced him between roles with zero preparation.
Put another way, the Mets did not put Oswalt in a position to succeed, and he hasn’t. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t or won’t.
Oswalt is a true four pitch pitcher who is willing to throw any of his pitches at any count. One of the reasons he can do this is his control. While not exceptional, it’s still quite good, and he can locate his pitches where he wants.
Oswalt does not have great velocity averaging around 92 MPH on his fastball. He also has not shown much spin on any of his pitches. As noted, he does combat this by locating.
That said, his change has nice drop to it. That helps allow the swings-and-misses, and it helps induce weak contact. The issue is he hasn’t really had that chances. That’s something the Mets really haven’t had.
The question fo Oswalt is whether he’ll get that chance now. That’s certainly up for debate partially because of the Mets.
Overall, this was a strong 2,0 innings for Oswalt. He showed why the Mets can’t give up on him. That goes double with the Mets starting staff beginning the year without Noah Syndergaard and Seth Lugo.
That right there is the key. The Mets need to pick a role to permit Oswalt to thrive and work within that role with Jeremy Hefner. That could be as a reliever, and it could be as a fifth starter. That’s up to the Mets.
With Oswalt off the 40, he has to reprove himself to get that call up again. He then has to stick. He has the talent, and he’s got the ability to work on things. Where he goes from here depends on his development).
Truth be told, the notion of Spring Training competitions have become antiquated. Teams pretty much know their rosters, and it really takes a miracle to get them to change their minds.
Proof of that is Luis Guillorme.
Entering Spring Training, there was presumably one starting job on the infield available. With Jeff McNeil‘s versatility, that job could’ve been at second or third.
For his part, Guillorme continues to make the case he should get that job. He’s had a terrific Spring where he’s made a number of phenomenal defensive plays. Yesterday, it was at third.
.@lguillorme13 starts a gem of a 5-4-3 double play. ? pic.twitter.com/91kYsBbLuG
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 12, 2021
It should not be lost on anyone that was with Marcus Stroman on the mound. Like most of the Mets staff, Stroman generates a high number of ground balls necessitating defense like that in the lineup on an everyday basis.
It’s not just his glove, which has always been phenomenal. Guillorme has also been hitting. So far this Spring, Guillorme is hitting .357 over six games.
That’s building off a great 2020 where he had a 144 wRC+. This marked the third straight season Guillorme saw an increase in wRC+. Each one of those seasons was a small sample size, but 2021 should not.
Guillorme has done everything asked of him. He’s been great in the field, and he’s continued to improve at the plate. This is what you want to see from your players, and that should be rewarded.
More than rewarded, Guillorme continues to prove he’s the best option. There really is no real viable counter-argument why a ground ball pitching staff shouldn’t have their second best defender in the infield.
Guillorme has been great this Spring, and he’s continuously improving as a player. He continues to prove he deserves a starting job. More to the point, he’s establishing he’s better than all the other options.
Come Opening Day, Guillorme needs to be in the lineup.
Yet again, Luis Guillorme made a terrific defensive play. It’s what he does, and aside from possibly Francisco Lindor, he plays defense far better than anyone on the New York Mets.
Unreal snag @lguillorme13 ? pic.twitter.com/3u4ha1WH9G
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 8, 2021
When you see plays like this and all the plays Guillorme can make, there should be no doubt about playing him everyday. Not only is Guillorme a real asset with his defense, he’s also a difference maker.
At least defensively, Guillorme and Lindor would combine to be one of, if not the best middle infields in all of baseball. That would be of vital importance to a Mets pitching staff who generates a large number of ground balls.
On that front, it’s important to note Pete Alonso is a bad first baseman. His -7 DRS since his MLB debut is the second worst. His -9 OAA is one of the worst too. Having Guillorme at second would help offset that.
He’d do that much better than Jeff McNeil. McNeil is good at second with a 1 DRS. He’s just not on Guillorme’s par. That’s not a slight to McNeil in the least, but rather, an acknowledgment of just how good Guillorme is defensively.
Keep in mind, Guillorme is not just a glove. He can hit too.
No, Guillorme is not a 30 home run hitter. He’s not even half that. Still, in big moments, he can hit one out:
Guillorme has seen his wRC+ increase in each one of his MLB seasons. Part of the reason is he’s been steadily increasing. He projects to be a near league average. That’s more than alright for an eighth place hitter with his glove.
That goes double when the Mets are already sacrificing defense at first, third, left, and center. A player in just for defense makes more than enough sense for a team shoe-horning in bats and has a ground ball staff.
All told, Guillorme is an excellent defender who can hit. He’s going to offset Alonso’s defense on the right side while creating a dynamic double play duo with Lindor.
All told, Guillorme is exactly what the Mets need at second, and he’s a better all strong player than he gets credit. As such, he should be put in the Opening Day lineup and on each of the ensuing games.
Simply put, third base was the biggest hole the New York Mets had this offseason, and they did nothing to address it. Now, they’re scrambling.
The incumbent, J.D. Davis, is the worst defensive player in baseball. Not hyperbole, his DRS is literally the worst since joining the Mets.
With the Mets not improving, they’re starting to sell he’s improved there. They even point to Francisco Lindor working with him. There are two problems to this.
First, it’s useless talking point we hear every Spring akin to “best shape of their life.” Second, Davis is still quite bad in the videos promoting his defense.
Francisco Lindor coaching J.D, Davis on the stadium field early this AM. #Mets. pic.twitter.com/nbCW6Ydxav
— David Lennon (@DPLennon) February 28, 2021
Really, he can’t play the position, and the Mets need to stop trying to make it work. The problem is if not Davis, then who?
Yes, the answer is literally anyone else on the team would be better, but that’s also not a good answer. One early talking point is the idea of a Davis platoon with the left-handed hitting Jonathan Villar.
Villar, too, is a bad defender. Over the last two years, he has a -12 DRS in the middle of the infield. The counter-argument is third may be an easier position to play and a better fit for him.
However, that point ignores the disaster Jose Reyes was at third. Players in defensive decline just don’t automatically stem the tide and thrive at third. That’s an important consideration for a player in Villar who hasn’t played there since 2016. In that year, he played 346.2 innings there and had a -5 DRS.
So, looking at it, we return to Jeff McNeil, a player who has actually been the Opening Day starter there the last two seasons. He also has a career 5 DRS and 3 OAA there in his career.
Yes, he had a tough stretch there last year, and he had a tough Spring Training game. Even with that, he’s still been FAR SUPERIOR than the players who are under consideration for third. If you couple that with the ability to put Luis Guillorme and his Gold Glove caliber defense at second, it’s hard to argue there’s a better option.
The only problem is the Mets seem to be reluctant to both put McNeil at third and to play Guillorme everyday. It’s a bizarre thought process with zero sound reasoning given the construction of this roster.
Whatever the case, this is how the Mets built their team. It’s imperative they put their best players on the field in the best position to succeed and help the pitching staff who induces a lot of grounders.
Short of the Mets making that trade for a third baseman, they’re stuck trying to figure out a dilemma they failed to address this offseason. Rather than push sunk costs, lost cases, and poor thought processes, they need to do what helps them win in 2021.
In his first Spring Training start at third base, Jeff McNeil struggled. He had three errors – a missed catch, a missed grounder, and a bad throw.
The complete overreaction to this should be a really big yawn.
As reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets may not be quite reacting that way. In fact, Puma reports J.D. Davis and Jonathan Villar will get the bulk of playing time at third.
If true, it’s a bad plan. Davis is the worst third baseman in the game. Villar is a poor defender who last played third in 2016. Looking at it, McNeil is the Mets best defensive third baseman with a 5 DRS.
McNeil at third would also open up more playing time for Luis Guillorme. If nothing else, Guillorme is a very good defender. He’s also been making significant strides offensively.
Beautiful play from Guillorme to end the 2nd! ? pic.twitter.com/9Cx6tjSQ7e
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 7, 2021
Guillorme should ideally start at second where he is Gold Glove caliber. That would move McNeil to third. Notably, Luis Rojas said McNeil has “looked well at third base in the past.” He will again if given the opportunity.
Overall, Guillorme at second with McNeil at third remains the Mets best possible infield. As such, the team should not overreact to one poor day.
The Mets need to be better than that. They need to roll their eyes and do what’s right for the team. Whatever they decide, they need to move forward with their best team and lineup.
As fans, we are always so critical of the manger about the lineup. Of course, we know managers don’t really set the lineup anymore, and more to the point, there are just so many moving pieces when setting a lineup. While overlooked, there really is a human element at play, which fans are never quite aware.
When it comes to the Mets, there are so many different options on how to set this lineup. For starters, there are four elite lead-off hitters. There are seven middle of the lineup caliber bats. Luis Rojas and the Mets front office have to balance egos as well as how to get the most out of all of their hitters. Taking all of that into account, the 2021 Mets lineup should be:, 3B
- Jeff McNeil, 3B
- Brandon Nimmo, CF
- Francisco Lindor, SS
- Michael Conforto, RF
- Pete Alonso, 1B
- Dominic Smith, LF
- James McCann, C
- Luis Guillorme, 2B
The caveat here is this is obviously not going to be the lineup. After all, early indications from Spring Training are Nimmo will hit lead-off, and the Mets are going to give J.D. Davis the bulk of the playing time at third despite his being incapable of playing the position.
The reason to bat McNeil lead-off is two-fold. First and foremost, McNeil is at his best batting lead-off. As previously detailed, McNeil is an aggressive hitter at the plate, and he is terrific hitting fastballs. Notably, pitchers throw a fastball to start the game over 99% of the time. That gives McNeil an advantage, and it allows him to get an ideal pitch to swing and put in play. Worst case, pitchers adapt, throw something else, and then fall out of rhythm.
That gives Nimmo the opportunity to be a second lead-off hitter. After the pitcher had to deal with McNeil jumping all over him, Nimmo can then work the deep counts he always does. As an aside, a healthy Nimmo is the Mets best hitter, and at least statistically, a team’s best hitter should bat second in the lineup.
What’s interesting is while your best hitter should bat second, your second best hitter should bat fourth. Some of this is counter-intuitive because we’ve done baseball a certain way for more than a century. Keeping that in mind, the Mets second best hitter is arguably Conforto.
wRC+ since 2017
McNeil 139
Nimmo 136
Alonso 136
Conforto 132
Lindor 119
Smith 116 https://t.co/KIyBzWH9it— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) February 21, 2021
Conforto has the longer and better track record. Like Nimmo and Lindor, he’s also shown the ability to hit without the juiced ball. That’s not an indictment of the younger hitters who have only played with the juiced ball. It’s just a fact.
That means Conforto should bat cleanup. Who should bat third is an interesting debate. Given his stature as a superstar and his being a switch hitter, Lindor slots in well here.
Batting Lindor third, also allows the Mets to begin the L-R alternating through the bottom of the lineup. That gives the Mets the most lethal 5-6 hitters in all of baseball and gives them the deepest lineup in all of baseball.
That leads us to Guillorme eighth. Fact is, he’s Gold Glove caliber at second. With the ground ball heavy pitching staff the Mets have, he definitively needs to be in the lineup over Davis. It should also be noted Guillorme has been improving significantly offensively while Davis is a ground ball machine.
Of course, certain players may feel better or more comfortable in different spots. The Mets may also want to change it up when there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound. That said, at least on paper, this is the optimal Mets lineup.
As we look at the 2021 Mets, offensively speaking this team is an embarrassment of riches. This team is full of players who can be great hitting lead-off and can make the argument they should be hitting in the middle of the lineup. As you parse through it all, the debate begins over who exactly is the best hitter on this team.
It may come to surprise you the answer is actually Brandon Nimmo.
No, that is not going to be a popular answer, especially among a fanbase who has a contingent who bizarrely believes Nimmo is a fourth outfielder. To that point, if we look since 2017, here are the Mets top hitters according to wRC+:
- Jeff McNeil 139
- Brandon Nimmo 136
- Pete Alonso 136
- Michael Conforto 132
- Francisco Lindor 119
- Dominic Smith 116
- J.D. Davis 115
- Luis Guillorme 93
- James McCann 91
Now, looking at that list, McNeil is ahead of Nimmo, and Nimmo is in a dead heat with Alonso. Really, taking the top four into account the 132 – 139 range isn’t really much of a separation to adjudge who is best among that group. However, there is more to the story when you are looking at Nimmo.
Nimmo’s biggest issue in terms of these rankings is he mostly missed out on the super juiced ball of 2019. While everyone was putting up video game numbers, Nimmo first dealt with a sore hand after a HBP early in the season. Soon thereafter, he was found to have a bulging disc which cost him the vast majority of that season.
While injuries of that nature are certainly concerning, Nimmo has done nothing but shown he has overcame that injury. Nimmo was reactivated when rosters were expanded in September. From September 1 through the 2020 season, Nimmo hit .275/.412/.506, and he posted a 151 wRC+. That wasn’t exactly a fluke.
In Nimmo’s breakout 2018 season, Nimmo had a 148 wRC+. It’s of interest to note, Nimmo had the same mark in 2020. That’s elite offensive production, and in his last two healthy seasons, he’s posted that same number. Keep in mind, that’s better than any other player on the Mets has posted over the course of a full 162 game season.
Yes, last season, we did see some Mets players post a better wRC+. Specifically, Smith had a 164, and Conforto had a 157. In terms of both, we have seen enough in their careers to indicate they are capable of producing incredible offensive seasons like that. We know the same for McNeil and Alonso. We haven’t seen it in New York, but we know Lindor is a very good offensive player albeit it one a step behind the rest.
Still, no one on the Mets roster has produced the numbers Nimmo has when Nimmo has been healthy. When healthy, Nimmo has produced at a level commensurate with players like Juan Soto (152), Christian Yelich (147), and Freddie Freeman (146). Since 2017, that’s the level of offensive player Nimmo has been.
Certainly, people refuse to believe it and want to write it off because Nimmo walks too much as if that is a bad thing. They also dismiss his approach citing he’s taking hittable pitches while ignoring his .456 SLG and .850 OPS. Nimmo is a player who makes a pitcher work, he gets on base, and he hits for power. That should be seen as the ideal profile for a hitter.
Also, keep in mind, it’s not just about batting average or homers. It’s about the ability to get on base. Few in all of baseball are better than Nimmo in that department and certainly no one on the Mets.
Overall, when Nimmo is healthy, he is the best offensive player in this lineup. Sure, he could very well be surpassed by players like Alonso or Conforto. That is very well possible given the caliber of player they are. However, keep in mind even with all the great things they do, they still haven’t done what Nimmo when healthy over the course of a 162 game season.