Lucas Duda
After the game, Terry Collins revealed Juan Lagares was scratched from the lineup because he couldn’t close his left hand. At a minimum, it seems like a DL stint is inevitable.
The natural inclination would be for the Mets to call-up Brandon Nimmo. He’s certainly earned the promotion hitting .330/.411/.529 with five homers and 32 RBI. The 23 year old 2011 first round pick appears to be ready for a promotion to the majors. He could take the place of Michael Conforto in the lineup while Conforto waits for his wrist to react to the cortisone shot.
With that said, Conforto is expected back this weekend. Once he returns, it is likely Terry Collins will play him everyday. That will leave Nimmo on the bench which would be detrimental to his development. Nimmo needs to get regular at bats, and that does not appear likely at the major league level.
However, Lagares and Conforto aren’t the only Mets that are ailing. Neil Walker had to pull himself from a game on Saturday. He hasn’t been able to play since. Tomorrow, he is going to see a back specialist to be evaluated. Given the Mets luck lately with Lucas Duda and David Wright, no one should be holding their breath.
With that in mind, the Mets should call-up Dilson Herrera.
Herrera is the second baseman of the future, and depending on Walker’s back, the future may be now. Herrera is hitting .298/.344/.517 with ten homers and 36 RBI. Like Nimmo, Herrera has earned the call-up. Unlike Nimmo, Herrera has some major league experience. Moreover, Herrera doesn’t have an obvious impediment to his playing time.
In Walker’s absence, Collins has had to pick between Matt Reynolds and Kelly Johnson. Both have played well recently, but there shouldn’t be expectations for that to continue. Reynolds is the same player who has hit .282/.335/.420 in the Pacific Coast League, which is about as favorable a hitter’s league there is. Even with his hot streak, Johnson is hitting .226/.288/.308 this year. Herrera should be an upgrade over these players.
Accordingly, Herrera should be called-up to play second until such time as Walker is ready to return. In the interim, Collins can go with either Johnson in left, like he did Wednesday, or Alejandro De Aza, who Collins wants to get more at bats. Herrera can and should effectively man second base until Walker is ready. When that happens, the Mets will do what they always do in these situations:
They will call up Eric Campbell.
However, before that happens the Mets need to call-up Herrera. He’s the best option at second base behind Walker. Additionally, in Wright’s absence, the Mets can judge whether it is time to let Herrera play second while moving Walker to third. This is an option the Mets have internally discussed. They now have a window to see if it is feasible.
It’s time to call-up Dilson Herrera.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
Here’s a list of all the Mets who got hits off the Pirates rookie phenom Jameson Taillon through the first seven innings:
Don’t worry. Yoenis Cespedes put an end to the tomfoolery by immediately grounding into the 5-4-3 double play. Taillon would pitch a career high eight innings allowing two hits, no earned, and one walk with five strikeouts. Before tonight, Taillon never pitched more than seven innings at any level. He went past that point making the Mets look foolish in the process.
Yes, the Mets are a compromised lineup without David Wright and Lucas Duda. Yes, it does hurt the offense when Neil Walker and Michael Conforto out of the lineup. However, that’s an excuse.
The Mets put out a lineup with Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera, who were two high priced players free agents signed more for their offense than anything. Until this year James Loney and Alejandro De Aza were major league quality players. By the way, remember when De Aza was supposed to be the answer in centerfield? Also, the Mets had Kelly Johnson in the lineup, who the Mets thought so highly of they parted with Akeel Morris to get him (after thinking Eric Campbell was a better bench option).
The other two batters were Wilmer Flores and Kevin Plawecki. Flores was the Mets starting shortstop last year because the Mets thought he was better than players like Jung Ho Kang (more on that in a minute). Now he’s a bench piece. Plawecki was the former first round pick, who, putting it nicely, isn’t any good. He showed us how bad he was again today.
Aside from the 0-3, he was dreadful in the field. In the sixth, he dropped what should have been a foul out off the bat of Andrew McCutchen extending the at bat. Later in the inning, he bounced a an offline throw when Josh Harrison tried to steal second. The ball went into center, and Harrison went to third. Because Jacob deGrom was so good neither error hurt the Mets.
However, deGrom wasn’t perfect when the Mets needed him to be. He made a mistake that Kang turned into a two run homerun in the sixth. The final line for deGrom was six innings allowing six hits, two earned, and one walk with nine strikeouts. For any other team, this would’ve been good enough for the win. Not for this putrid Mets offense.
Jim Henderson allowed a two run home run to Starling Marte. The homer made the score 4-0, and it put the game out of reach. You know, if it wasn’t out of reach at 2-0.
Look, teams will look bad against good pitching. Mets fans have seen their pitching do this to opponents. There is no shame is being shut down by a phenom like Taillon. The problem is, lately, every pitcher looks like Taillon against the Mets.
The Mets have three big holes due to three players going down with significant injuries. Lucas Duda has a stress fracture in his back. David Wright has a herniated disc in his neck in addition to his spinal stenosis. Travis d’Arnaud has a torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder.
With this in mind, the Mets have to answer a few questions as the trade deadline approaches:
- Are any of the three players likely to return?
- Do the Mets have viable internal options to replace that player?
- What is out there on the trade market?
Working backwards, we see the biggest name on the trade market is going to be Jonathan Lucroy.
Lucroy is having a terrific year this season hitting .304/.361/.515 with nine homeruns and 28 RBI. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Lucroy is playing this well as he is better in even numbered years than odd numbered years since he became a full time starter in 2011. In 2012, his OPS+ was 132; in 2014, it was 131, and this year it is 132. In short, we can reasonably expect Lucroy to keep this up.
Lucroy’s just as successful behind the plate. He is a good pitch framer. He’s gunned down 42.9% of would be basestealers. Simply put, Lucroy is as much of a complete catcher as there is in the game. He’s also a massive upgrade over d’Arnaud’s replacements.
Since d’Arnaud’s last game on April 25th, Rene Rivera and Kevin Plawecki have combined to hit .190/.273/.289. While they have been good pitch framers, and Rivera has been a stabilizing force behind the plate, Plawecki and Rivera have both established themselves as poor hitting backup catchers. The Mets need a starting catcher that can hit. That was supposed to be d’Arnaud. It could be Lucroy now.
With that said, the Mets should pass on Lucroy despite his being better than any of the Mets catchers.
The reason the Mets can do this is because d’Arnaud has begun playing in rehab games, and he has had no setbacks this far. He will begin catching in rehab games soon. As per baseball’s 20 game rehab rule, d’Arnaud is set to return to the Mets on Sunday, June 26th at the latest.
Assuming he’s healthy, d’Arnaud can continue being a good overall catcher. He’s a better than average pitch framer. He’s coming off a .268/.340/.485 season. He hit three homeruns in the postseason last year. The only issue that remains is if he can throw out base stealers with his injured shoulder. With the way Mets pitchers hold on base runners, that may not be as big an issue as one might normally believe.
With his injury history, there may come a point in time the Mets decide to move on from d’Arnaud. That time may come sooner rather than later. However, now is not that time. The Mets have bigger issues.
James Loney has been a fine stopgap at first base, but he’s still only hitting .250/.302/.350. He’s not the long term solution. Wilmer Flores has done a yeoman’s job at third hitting .389/.450/.500. He is been much better with his approach at the plate. He is working the counts and starting to draw some walks. He also has an unsustainably high .500 BABIP leading you to believe he is due for a regression back to the .255/.292/.385 career hitter he is. Overall, the Mets continue to have long term holes at first and third with no one really knowing when or if Wright and Duda can return.
Accordingly, the Mets need to husband their resources so they can make a move to acquire a third and/or first baseman. That’s not Lucroy UNLESS the Mets feel comfortable paying the huge price he’ll command on the trade market to play first base . . . a position he has only played 43 games in his seven year career.
Editor’s Note: this was first published metsmerizedonline.com
Despite the Pirates being in the thick of the Wild Card race, and there being no reason to expect for them to drop out of the race, Jon Heyman wrote in his Today’s Knuckleball article that the Pirates could be willing to part with David Freese at the trade deadline. Due to the Mets injury situation, Heyman linked Freese to the Mets.
Assuming that Freese is truly available, and the price is reasonable, Freese would be a solid addition to the New York Mets.
For his career, Freese is a career .277/.346/.418 hitter with a 112 career OPS+ and 115 wRC+. His 162 game averages are 30 doubles, 15 homeruns, and 77 RBI. With the exception of a poor 2013 season, which has proven to be an outlier, Freese has been an average defensive third baseman. Over the course of his career, Freese has been a good hitter and a solid defender. He would be a benefit to almost any team with postseason aspirations.
Here’s the catch: Freese has been even better this year.
This year, Freese is hitting .292/.373/.427 with a 127 OPS+ and a 124 wRC+ in 51 games. This could be construed as a small sample size, but there are some underlying numbers that suggest his current batting line will be sustainable over the course of a full season. First, Freese is still beating up on lefties like he has done his whole career. He has faced lefties in 21 games this year, and he is hitting .366/.409/.610 against them. For a Mets team that has been having some difficulty against lefties, especially with the Nationals Gio Gonzalez, adding Freese’s bat would be beneficial.
However, Freese’s numbers are not just reflective of his facing lefties. Freese is also hitting better against rightes. For his career, Freese has been a .269/.337/.401 hitter against righties. He is now hitting .269/.362/.369 against them. It’s a moderate, but important, improvement. The underlying reason for this improvement may be his approach at the plate. Freese has been hitting a lot of groundballs this year. Freese is hitting the ball on the ground 64.2% of the time. Normally, in this age of the shift, this could be construed as a negative. Many times, we have seen batters like Curtis Granderson pull balls in to the shift. That isn’t the case with Freese. Historically, Freese has hit the ball to all fields. In fact, over the course of his career, Freese pulls the ball 35.1% of the time, hits it up the middle 36.4% of the time, and goes to the opposite field 28.5% of the time. In essence, it is hard to defend a player like that with the shift.
One of the corresponding factors to Freese hitting more groundballs is his hitting fewer flyballs. Typically, unless you are hitting the ball over the fence, flyballs are turned into outs. With Freese hitting fewer flyballs there is a decreased chance he will hit into an out. The increased groundball rate coupled with the decreased flyball rate are strong factors in Freese’s high .397 BABIP. Typically, the league average is .300, which would lead many to believe that Freese is due for a regression. Even if that were to happen, keep in mind Freese’s career BABIP is .342. In essence, he is someone who’s natural talents led to a higher BABIP. Therefore, even if Freese were due for a regression, it wouldn’t be as drastic as one might believe it to be.
Another benefit to adding Freese is the fact that he’s a more versatile player now. Since he has joined the Pirates, Freese has also played at first and second in addition to third. Thereofr,e even if David Wright and Lucas Duda were to return to the Mets completely healthy, Freese would still be an useful player off the bench.
Overall, Freese appears to be a better hitter and a more versatile fielder. He’s exactly the type of player the Mets should be looking to add to the team. The only thing standing in the way of that happening is the Pirates. They first have to make him available, and the Mets need to be willing to meet their demands. That is much easier said than done.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
With the Mets injuries, it’s easy to blame the lack of offense on the Mets supposed depth. It’s true. The Mets backups have been dreadful:
- Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera have combined to hit .194/.291/.302 since Travis d’Arnaud played his last game on April 25th.
- Eric Campbell, Wilmer Flores, and James Loney have combined to hit .197/.231/.328 since Lucas Duda played his last game on May 20th.
- Flores and Ty Kelly have combined to hit .216/.310/.243 since David Wright played his last game on May 27th
These players haven’t done their jobs, and they have hurt the Mets. However, while the Kellys and the Campbells of the world get the blame for hitting the way you reasonably anticipate them to hit, the regulars who haven’t been hitting have not faced the same scrutiny. In fact, the Mets right now have five regulars still in the lineup and four of them are just flat out not producing:
- Asdrubal Cabrera – Since April 27th, Cabrera is hitting .227/.278/.355 with only 10 extra base hits in 151 plate appearances. Over that stretch, he is striking out in 23.8% of his plate appearances.
- Michael Conforto – Since May 1st, in what is now being infamously referenced as the Madison Bumgarner Effect, Conforto has hit .160/.224/.311 while striking out in 31% of his plate appearances. He only has seven extra base hits over this stretch. Terry Collins once had concerns with him lefties. Right now, Conforto isn’t hitting anybody.
- Yoenis Cespedes – Since May 25th, Cespedes is hitting .086/.132/.114 with no homeruns while striking out 34.2% of the time. He is once again dealing with a hip issue, and he is clearly frustrated saying he is “a little lost at the plate right now.” (ESPN).
- Curtis Granderson – Since April 30th, Granderson is hitting .180/.269/.375 while striking out 28.3% of the time. His problems have been analyzed before show he’s hitting the ball on the ground more and it getting beaten by the shift. So far, Granderson is not making the necessary adjustments.
Then again, no Met is making the necessary adjustments right now. The end result is a putrid offense that is the worst offense in the major leagues. According to Baseball Tonight, since May 12th, the Mets are the last in the majors in runs per game (2.8), OBP (.282), and strikeout rate (28%). The team is also second to last in slugging (.354). These numbers would look a whole lot worse if Neil Walker wasn’t hitting.
Overall, this isn’t the July 2015 Mets that had Campbell and John Mayberry hitting in the middle of the lineup. There are legitimate hitters in this lineup who just aren’t hitting. We can all analyze who the Mets should get to be their possible long term solutions at catcher, first, and third in the event any of those injured players aren’t able to return. However, the simple truth of the matter is that unless the players currently here start hitting it’s not going to matter if the Mets make another move at the deadline.
Since Michael Fulmer‘s call-up on April 29th, he is an astounding 6-1 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.175 WHIP. In his last four starts, he is 4-0 with a 0.32 ERA and a 0.635 WHIP. These are great numbers from any rookie. It’s all the more incredible when you consider he’s only made three starts in AAA. The 23 year old is showing everyone why he was considered a potential ace, and why the Tigers wanted him in the first place.
It’s also a reminder that the Mets used their biggest trade chip last year.
While the Mets farm system is still stocked with pitching talent, there aren’t any pitchers with the upside of Fulmer, at least not any that are as close to the major leagues as Fulmer was last year. Now, the Mets do boast some terrific position player prospects like Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario. However, neither one of those players are close to ready to being major leaguers. While these players are highly thought of around baseball, they are certainly not going to fetch a player of Yoenis Cespedes‘ caliber at the trading deadline. That’s a huge problem for the Mets.
Right now, the Mets are without Lucas Duda, David Wright, and Travis d’Arnaud due to severe injuries. The Mets don’t know the long-term status of Juan Lagares and the torn ligament in his left thumb. Hopefully, d’Arnaud, who has started rehab games, can catch with the torn labrum. Realistically, all the Mets can do with each of these players is put a timetable on when they think they could return not fully knowing when these players can return. As the Mets are waiting to figure this out, they are playing a group of players that are having problems just to reach the Mendoza Line. The big solution they have so far was to acquire James Loney. Loney has been good so far, but he is still the player who was released by the Tampa Rays and was playing for the San Diego Padres’ AAA affiliate. In short, the Mets are going to have to go out there on the trade market and obtain some players that can help them at catcher, first, and third.
The Mets have the pieces to make those deals. However, they may not have the pieces to make that blockbuster deal that everyone wants. The Mets don’t have the one big trade piece that could solve the issue at one or more positions. The reason why is the Mets went all-in on the 2015 season. The result was the Mets making it to the World Series. At the end of the day, the 2016 Mets may be hamstrung by what happened in 2015.
With that said, Sandy Alderson is a very good GM. He has swung some good trades while he has been the manager of the Mets. The deals he made with the Braves for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe as well as the deal he made with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Addison Reed were absolute coups. Alderson was able to acquire quality major league pieces without giving up much of anything. The Mets are going to need the same type of performance this trading deadline, especially since he doesn’t have the same assets he had last year to get the job done. It’s not going to be easy. It’s going to require some creativity. However, if anyone can do it, it’s Sandy Alderson.
The other day, Travis d’Arnaud began his rehabilitation assignment playing DH for High-A St. Lucie. It’s interesting he started at a position other than catcher as many people believe d’Arnaud should be using this time to transition away from catcher.
There are sound reasons for this decision. d’Arnaud has been injury prone, and catcher is a position where a player tends to get many nicks, bumps, and bruises. With the torn labrum, d’Arnaud is going to have even more issues throwing out more base stealers than he is perceived to have. Finally, with the Lucas Duda and David Wright injuries, the Mets may need long term solutions to those positions.
Despite all of these reasons, it would be an incredibly poor decision to move d’Arnaud out from behind the plate.
First, d’Arnaud’s torn labrum shouldn’t affect his ability to catch and call a game. Throughout his career, d’Arnaud’s strength has been as a receiver and a pitch framer. Yes, his torn labrum could affect his ability to throw. However, his throwing would be a bigger issue from third base.
Additionally, moving d’Arnaud doesn’t help the Mets offensively. In d’Arnaud’s absence, Kevin Plawecki has hit .203/.302/.298, and Rene Rivera has hit .194/.310/.361. Right now, the Mets have James Loney at first, who is a career .285/.338/.411 hitter, and Wilmer Flores at third, who is a career .251/.288/.382 hitter. Simply put, the Mets are better off with d’Arnaud, Loney, and Flores in the lineup.
Overall, the Mets need d’Arnaud back with the Mets as soon as possible. They need his bat in the lineup to improve the lineup. He helps this team, and this pitching staff most, when he is behind the plate. He needs to stay there.
One thing I’m shocked by is the amount of people who don’t want to take a flyer on a reunion with Ruben Tejada.
Here’s what we know to be true about Tejada:
- He’s not a great defender at second, third, or short;
- He doesn’t hit for power; and
- He’s much better than Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, and Matt Reynolds
The third point is the key. If a team has an opportunity to improve its roster, isn’t it incumbent upon them to get better? Remember, the Mets have an obligation to the team and the fans to put the best possible team on the field that they can. So long as they’re letting Reynolds, Kelly, or Campbell player over an available Tejada, they’re not doing that.
No, Tejada doesn’t solve the third base issue. Ideally, you don’t want him playing everyday. However, in that same ideal world, Ty Kelly isn’t playing third yesterday and grounding into two rally killing double plays.
Right now, the Mets need a lot more than Tejada. They need Travis d’Arnaud, Lucas Duda, and David Wright. In the event they aren’t coming back anytime soon, and that seems like a possibility more and more each passing day, the Mets need to find real long term replacements. Unfortunately, these replacements are not on the roster.
The issue is the trade market for these players may just now be developing. The teams in possession of those assets may be holding on to them for a little longer to try to get more teams involved in the bidding to try to drive the price up. Theoretically, this means the Mets may not be able to get anyone for another month or so. While the Mets wait, they’re stuck with the Kellys, the Reynolds, and the Campbells of the world.
Why do we need to watch Campbell hit .159, Reynolds hit .100, and Kelly hit .118 when Tejada is available for nothing? Is there really anyone that really believes Tejada’s career .254/.328/.322 slash line isn’t better than what the Mets are currently sending out there on a daily basis? The answer should be a resounding “NO!”
Tejada is an improvement, and he’s more than just an incremental improvement. He’s also an improvement that can be in place tomorrow. He’s not the final solution. He’s a stop gap. His contract is up at the end of the year, and you only owe him a prorated portion of a $1.5 million contract. Tejada won’t stand in the way of another move.
In the end, Tejada is not THE solution. He’s just much better than Kelly, Reynolds, or Campbell. Tejada gives you the ability to put a much better player out there than what the Mets currently are putting out there until such time as the injured Mets get healthy or you make a move for a better player. Just because the Mets need someone better than Tejada, it doesn’t mean you should continue to trot out much weaker players like Reynolds, Campbell, or Kelly in the interim.
No, the Mets need better players than Kelly, Reynolds, and Campbell. Tejada is better than them. He should be claimed off waivers and play until such time that the Mets get a player better than him.
If you don’t want Tejada, you’re saying Reynolds, Campbell, and Kelly are better players. Unfortunately, there’s noting to justify that opinion other than a sheer dislike of Tejada.
Yesterday was about as frustrating as it gets. The Mets only scored one run in 13 innings despite drawing 13 walks. The natural reaction is to try to figure out where things went wrong, to try to figure out why this happened. There are many plausible and reasonable explanations. However, when seeking out an answer to what is currently ailing the Mets, Terry Collins is not one of them.
Yes, Terry Collins has his faults as a manager. He sticks with veterans too long. He has a tendency to mismanage the bullpen. He mismanaged the World Series so poorly he might’ve cost the team an opportunity to win the World Series. There are many things wrong with him as a manager. However, you cannot blame him for the current state of the Mets’ offense.
Terry Collins is not to blame for Travis d’Arnaud going down with a rotator cuff injury leaving him with the choice of the light hitting Kevin Plawecki or Rene Rivera each and every night. Terry Collins is not to blame for Lucas Duda‘s pre-existing back issue or his subsequent (if unrelated) stress fracture. He’s also not to blame for David Wright‘s spinal stenosis or the herniated disc in his neck. You can’t blame Terry Collins that his had to start someone from the triumvirate of Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, or Matt Reynolds at third base. You can’t blame Terry Collins that the Mets had to go out and get James Loney, a player released by the Tampa Rays before the season began, to fill-in at first base.
Overall, the manager’s job is to get the best out of his players. It is not to suddenly turn Kevin Plawecki and Ty Kelly into capable major league hitters. That’s unfair and unreasonable.
While there is plenty of blame to go around for the offense, it’s not on Collins. In fact, you could argue that given the current state of the offense, Collins is exactly the manager you want in charge of the Mets. The Mets faced similar issues last year while Collins was at the helm. He had a young starting rotation going out there putting terrific start after terrific start just hoping the offense could score a run or two to get them the win. This is the type of environment that coiuld’ve fractured a team. It’s the type of environment when players could start getting frustrated and take those frustrations out on the field. Instead, Terry Collins held that team together until the team got healthy and Sandy Alderson could get reinforcements in place. A year later, the Mets are in the same exact position.
So, overall, Terry Collins is not to blame. In fact, he has shown that he is the exact manager you want in place right now. The World Series? Well, that’s a whole other matter. Let’s get through this rough patch first before discussing that point.