Lucas Duda
Last year, the Mets were coming off an absolutely brutal loss to the San Diego Padres on the eve of the trade deadline. As the team blew a 7-1 lead, it seemed like all hope was lost.
However, the Mets front office didn’t share the same sense of diapair. They were active on the phones trying to improve a team that was three games behind the Nationals. They were a team who had an extremely weak August schedule. They were a team in the mend with Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Cuddyer, and David Wright expected to return from the disabled list.
It was a good team getting healthy facing a favorable schedule ready for a three game set at home against the first place Nationals. It was behind this backdrop that the Yoenis Cespedes trade happened.
Seeing Cespedes hobbled out there is a stark reminder that this year is not last year. This is a Mets team that isn’t getting healthy. In fact, they’re falling like flies. Here is a list of the players currently on the disabled list:
- David Wright
- Lucas Duda
- Matt Harvey
- Juan Lagares
- Jose Reyes
- Jim Henderson
This does not include Noah Syndergaard or Steven Matz who both have bone spurs in their pitching elbows that will need to be surgically removed in the offseason.
This list also does not even include Asdrubal Cabrera who left yesterday’s game with what is initially being described as a strained patellar tendon. He seems as if he’s bound for the disabled list. With Cabrera going down, it will create another hole in not just the lineup, but with the defense.
With Cespedes’ injury and Lagares’ surgery, the Mets are left scrambling to find a center fielder. They have tried Curtis Granderson out there, and after one game, the Mets saw enough. Against righties, the Mets have tried Michael Conforto in center, and he has held his own. Just recently, the Mets signed Justin Ruggiano, who was playing in AAA before being released by the Rangers.
With Cabrera injured and seemingly bound for the disabled list, it leaves the Mets scrambling to find adequate defenders at the two most important defensive positions. It will also mean Neil Walker, who has hit .234/.316/.343 since May 1st, will be the only starting infielder remaining from the Opening Day Lineup.
By no means is Walker the only one struggling:
- 2015 – .259/.364/.457 with 33 doubles, two triples, 26 homers, and 70 RBI
- 2016 – .234/.326/.431 with 16 doubles, four triples, 16 homers, and 29 RBI
Michael Conforto
- 2015 – .270/.335/.506 with 14 doubles, nine homers, and 26 RBI
- 2016 – .225/.303/.419 with 14 doubles, or triple, 10 homers, homers, and 30 RBI
Travis d’Arnaud
- 2015 – .268/.340/.485 with 14 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, and 42 RBI
- 2016 – .249/.290/.321 with five doubles, two homers, and 10 RBI
All across the diamond, the Mets are dealing with injuries, under performance, or both. According to Baseball Reference, the Mets have the lowest team WAR at shortstop, third base, and right field among National League teams in the playoff hunt.
Further exacerbating the Mets struggles is their August schedule. There are the four emotionally charged Subway Series games along with series against the Tigers, Giants, Cardinals, and Marlins. There is s short West Coast trip. The combined record of their opponents is 416-369, which is good for a .530 winning percentage. With this schedule and the state of the Mets roster, things can fall apart quickly.
In reality, neither Jonathan Lucroy nor Jay Bruce help these problems. They do not solve the defensive gap at short or center. They cannot heal the players on the disabled list. They cannot make the schedule any easier. No, the only thing they can do is to join the Mets and play well.
However, if the Mets don’t get healthy or start playing better, there’s no point in adding Lucroy or Bruce. They don’t solve the Mets real problems, and they likely don’t put the Mets over the top.
With that in mind, there’s no sense on buying at the deadline. You’re just purging prospects to help acquire players who will most likely not be difference makers. There’s also no sense to selling because this is a talented team that needs to find that next gear.
With that in mind, as frustrating as it might be, the Mets best option might be to stand pat.
Time and time again, we have all seen the Mets fail to get a base hit with a runner in scoring position. It should come as no surprise to anyone that the Mets woeful .207 team batting average with runners in scoring position is the worst in all of Major League Baseball. It is 53 points lower than the .260 league average and 89 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals .296 team batting average with runners in scoring position. It gets worse. The Mets have a .288 team OPB with runners in scoring position, which is again the worst in the Major Leagues. This is 49 points lower than the league average .337 OBP with runners in scoring position, and it is 90 points lower than the St. Louis Cardinals league leading .378 team OBP with runners in scoring position.
At this point, what usually follows is a debate between traditional fans and fans that follow more of a stats based approach. Traditional fans believe hitting with runners in scoring position is a real skill set, and if a team is unable to hit with runners in scoring position, a team will be unable to score runs. Stat based fans will tell you hitting with runners in scoring position isn’t an actual skill, and like anything else, everything tends to regress to the mean. Regardless of your point-of-view, all fans tend to subscribe to the back of the baseball card concept wherein players tend to play to their seasonal averages on a year-in and year-out basis. With that common ground in mind, here are how the current Mets players have fared with runners in scoring position along with the amount of times they have come up this year with a runner in scoring position:
| Player | PA | 2016 | Career |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 70 | .180 | .256 |
| Eric Campbell | 19 | .125 | .168 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 70 | .254 | .301 |
| Michael Conforto | 56 | .250 | .256 |
| Travis d’Arnaud | 24 | .182 | .224 |
| Alejandro De Aza | 23 | .050 | .294 |
| Lucas Duda | 34 | .185 | .235 |
| Wilmer Flores | 41 | .297 | .270 |
| Curtis Granderson | 73 | .274 | .242 |
| Kelly Johnson | 50 | .214 | .261 |
| Ty Kelly | 10 | .111 | .111 |
| Juan Lagares | 21 | .158 | .271 |
| James Loney | 37 | .281 | .302 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 11 | .200 | .200 |
| Kevin Plawecki | 30 | .240 | .274 |
| Jose Reyes | 8 | .167 | .285 |
| Matt Reynolds | 12 | .250 | .250 |
| Rene Rivera | 31 | .259 | .235 |
| Neil Walker | 75 | .254 | .276 |
| David Wright | 38 | .226 | .293 |
* Kelly Johnson’s stats includes his 2016 stats from his 49 games with the Braves this year
While much of the ills of the season has been pinned on Campbell, Kelly, and Reynolds, the three of them have combine for only 41 plate appearances with runners in scoring position. To that end, another scapegoat, De Aza, has not hit whatsoever with runners in scoring position. These four batters have combined for 63 plate appearances which is still less than the plate appearances the either Cabrera, Cespedes, Granderson, or Walker have had individually this year.
Of that group, Granderson is the only batter who is hitting well with runners in scoring position. In fact, he is the only one who is hitting higher than his career average with runners in scoring position. Considering the fact that Cabrera has not gotten a hit with a runner in scoring position since April, it should be no surprise that he is the biggest culprit of the group.
The one encouraging sign is that most of these Mets players are underachieving with runners in scoring position. If these players finish the rest of the year producing at the rate they have done throughout their careers, this Mets team will start to score many more runs.
With homefield advantage on the line and the Mets in playoff position, Terry Collins managed the All Star Game like seemingly every other manager has previously managed the All Star Game. He put more of a premium on getting all the players in the game than winning the game. Well, everyone except his own players Jeurys Familia and Bartolo Colon. Other than the Mets players apparently being upset at this, it is hard to criticize Collins for how he managed the All Star Game. Still, there are many managerial decisions Collins has made in the first half of the season that invite scrutiny.
First and foremost, there is the way he handled Michael Conforto. First, he didn’t let him get any time playing right field in Spring Training. The end result of that was Collins putting Juan Lagares in right and Yoenis Cespedes in center on days that Curtis Granderson was given the day off. There really is no excuse for putting Lagares, possibly the defensive center fielder in the game, anywhere but center.
The other mistake is not letting Conforto hit against lefties until Madison Bumgarner took the mound. Collins was hampering his development by doing that. At the end of the day, this is the Mets best position player prospect, and in many ways, he was the second best hitter on the team. Collins was willing to sacrifice all that to get Lagares’ bat in the lineup instead of sitting an older Granderson who had the very platoon splits that worried Collins. By the way, Granderson is also 35 years old and could use the occasional day or two off. Conforto’s season began to fall apart, and he needed to be sent down to AAA. By the way, Collins is making the same mistake with Brandon Nimmo. However, it’s even worse with Nimmo as he’s doing it to get Alejandro De Aza‘s bat in the lineup.
While on the topic of developing players, Kevin Plawecki has faltered for yet another season under Collins’ tutelage. Last year, there were a number of excuses why Plawecki didn’t succeed from his being rushed to the majors to his sinus issues. This year, he had no such excuses, and he still didn’t produce. While Plawecki deserves a large amount of the blame, Collins certainly deserves some of it, especially when his position with Conforto is that he is not here to help players develop as major leaguers when the Mets have a win-now team.
Another major issue this year was Collins’ handing of Jim Henderson. Henderson was a feel good story that turned into a potential nightmare. The day after Henderson threw a career high 34 pitches, which is puzzling in its own right, Collins used Henderson to pitch in the very next game. He did it despite knowing that Henderson needed to be handled lightly due to his having two shoulder surgeries. He did it even after watching what happened with Johan Santana. Collins knew all of this, and yet he used Henderson in that spot as he said an April 13th game, the eighth game of the season, was deemed to be a must win game. Henderson’s production fell off after that, and now he is on the disabled list.
There was also his handling of Noah Syndergaard. Last year, the Mets wanted to initiate a six man rotation to alleviate some of the early innings Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom pitched early in the season. The idea was to both keep them healthy and keep them fresh for the length of the season. To be fair, Collins use of Syndergaard in any one particular start has not been egregious. However, it was curious how he shoehorned Syndergaard into a relief appearance after Syndergaard was ejected throwing at Chase Utley. The Mets had an opportunity to rest their ace until his next start. Instead, Syndergaard got the adrenaline going and was ramped up in a relief appearance on his throw day. By the way, in Syndergaard’s last start his fastball velocity dropped to 91 MPH, and he left the game with a dead arm.
Speaking of how he is handling pitching, it is amazing that Collins took part in talking Steven Matz out of opting for season ending surgery to address the bone spurs in his elbow that has clearly hampered his pitching. Not only was Collins willing to risk Matz suffering a more severe injury, he’s also willing to put a limited pitcher on the mound every fifth day. Keep in mind that since the bone spurs became an issue, Matz has been 0-3 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.430 WHIP. His slider usage has dropped from 13% to 3% of the time. It’s always troubling when a manager doesn’t protect his players. It’s even worse when he doesn’t protect the young injured ones.
There is also the curious drop in production this team has had since May 1st. Here’s how some of the Mets best hitters have fared since that point:
| April | Since | |
| Curtis Granderson | .241/.347/.471 | .238/.335/.453 |
| Neil Walker | .307/.337/.625 | .232/.318/.345 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | .300/.364/.400 | .249/.305/.435 |
| Michael Conforto | .365/.442/.676 | .148/.217/.303 |
Now, there are many factors to this including some of these players getting nicked up a bit. There’s something to be sad for the natural ebbs and flows of a season as well. There should be some note about the injuries to the players surrounding them. However, with all that said, these players have had a significant drop off in production under Collins’ watch. Whether it was helping them make adjustments and finding days for them to get the rest they needed, Collins didn’t do that as their manager.
There have been other issues dealing with Collins in-game management that could be highlighted as well. To be fair and balanced, it should be pointed out that Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, Matt Reynolds, and Rene Rivera have played far more games than the Mets ever wanted or expected them to play. It’s hard to expect a manager to win under those circumstances. It should also be noted that there were significant injuries to David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey which have further weakened the Mets.
Through all of that, Collins still has the Mets in a position to make the postseason. If he makes better decisions, and the Mets begin playing better, they should be in the postseason, and with that pitching staff, they still have a legitimate chance to return to the World Series.
Last year, Travis d’Arnaud established himself as a major league catcher both behind and at the plate. He showed how far he had come from the player that had to be sent to down to the minors in 2014 because he wasn’t hitting.
In 67 games, d’Arnaud hit .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI. He had a 127 OPS+. For the most part last year, d’Arnaud spent his time hitting fifth, sixth, and seventh. For whatever the reason, d’Arnaud was at his best when he was hitting seventh in the lineup. When he did hit seventh, d’Arnaud was hitting .311/.382/.541 with two homers and 12 RBI. d’Arnaud was hitting seventh in the lineup when he hit three homers in the postseason last year. Given the construction of the Mets roster this year, you could make the case that d’Arnaud should’ve been hitting seventh.
Instead, Terry Collins sees him as the eighth place hitter on this Mets team. There was a legitimate reason for it when he was hitting behind players like David Wright, Lucas Duda, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Neil Walker, and Asdrubal Cabrera. Now, it is a bad decision. Duda and Wright are on the disabled list, and Conforto is in the minor leagues. Now, Collins is hitting d’Arnaud behind players he is clearly better. Take a look at the players who are currently hitting ahead of d’Arnaud:
- James Loney – a career .285/.338/.411 hitter who was released by the Rays prior to the start of the season.
- Wilmer Flores – a career .252/.290/.383 hitter who lost his starting job to Ruben Tejada last year and was never considered for a starting job this season
- Brandon Nimmo – a promising rookie
Given how much d’Arnaud progressed last year, it is easy to say he is better than these options, and accordingly, he should hit higher in the lineup. However, d’Arnaud is struggling this year only hitting .206/.270/.250 with no homers. There are various reasons for these struggles from his wrapping his hands around Julio Franco style when he bats to him starting with an open stance and closing it as the pitch is being delivered. He’s just not as quiet in his stance as he was last year when he was having his most successful season. It’s possible some of these changes were made due to his shoulder. It’s also possible these changes were made due to the struggles he has been facing while hitting eighth in the order.
In 17 of his 19 games this year, d’Arnaud has hit .203/.277/.254 while hitting eighth in the order. For his career, he is hitting .194/.278/.287 from that spot in the lineup. That includes him going 0-3 against the Nationals yesterday. In his entire career, d’Arnaud has never hit well out of the eighth spot in the lineup. It has been more of the same this year, and quite possibly, it has led to d’Arnaud reverting to some bad habits at the plate. The Mets need to get him going in order to help with their offensive woes. It’s possible the best way to cure help him and the Mets is to take him out of the eighth spot.
On July 31, 2015, the Mets were three games behind the Washington Nationals. The Mets had the pitching to win, but they still needed the offense. Most of the Mets best hitters were either on the disabled list or had just returned from their own stint on the disabled list. Under these circumstances, the Mets made a trade for Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes played his first game with the Mets on August 1st. From that point until the end of the season, Cespedes would hit .287/.337/.604 with 17 homers and 44 RBI. The Mets would go from three games back in the division to winning the National League East by seven games. The Mets then set out on a magical postseason run that found them falling just short of winning a World Series.
Many have posited that but for the Cespedes’ acquisition, the Mets would not have even made the playoffs. Cespedes was credited only with raising his game, but also raising the play of his teammates. Cespedes’ production and the ensuing run the Mets went on were seen as proof positive of that fact. Unfortunately, that narrative hasn’t been proven true this year.
Last year, the Mets were 37-22 in the 59 games Cespedes was with the Mets. This year the Mets have played 68 games, and they are 36-32. Despite having played in nine additional games, the Mets still have less wins with Cespedes on the roster. The Mets are faltering despite the fact that Cespedes is producing near the same levels he produced last year. In fact, Cespedes is hitting .287/.352/.564 with 17 homers and 43 RBI this year. Last year, this production was seen as transformative. This year many are left to inquire what moves the Mets need to make to return to the postseason.
The reason for this is simple. The current Mets team is worse than the 2015 version. For example, here is the lineup from Cespedes’ first game with the Mets:
- Curtis Granderson CF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes LF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Wilmer Flores 2B
- Kelly Johnson RF
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Ruben Tejada SS
Here is the Mets lineup from Sunday:
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Asdrubal Cabrera SS
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Neil Walker 2B
- James Loney 1B
- Wilmer Flores 3B
- Michael Conforto LF
- Kevin Plawecki C
No, the lineup Cespedes first appeared would undergo some tweaks as the season progressed. First, Granderson would move back to RF, and Cespedes would play CF most of the time. Additionally, Murphy played some third base, but his primary position with the team was second base. Furthermore, until David Wright returned, Juan Uribe received the bulk of the playing time at third base. Finally, in both 2015 and 2016, Conforto was the primary left fielder that played alongside Cespedes in center. With that in mind, your only conclusion can be that the 2016 Mets as currently constituted are worse than the 2015 Mets. Here are the stats:
| 2016 | 2015 | |||
| C | Plawecki | .194/.301/.258 | d’Arnaud | .268/.340/.485 |
| 1B | Loney | .279/.329/.412 | Duda | .244/.352/.486 |
| 2B | Walker | .266/.335/.477 | Murphy | .281/.322/.449 |
| 3B | Flores | .241/.308/.380 | Uribe | .219/.301/.430 |
| SS | Cabrera | .265/.325/.394 | Tejada | .261/.338/.350 |
| LF | Conforto | .270/.335/.506 | Conforto | .231/.297/.447 |
| RF | Granderson | .223/.310/.449 | Granderson | .259/.364/.457 |
Overall, other than Walker, the 2016 Mets have no real advantage over the 2015 Mets from an offensive standpoint.
Granderson and Conforto are worse versions of themselves. Cabrera has hit for more power than Tejada did last year, but Cabrera’s stats are buttressed by a strong April. Since May 1st, Cabrera has hit .249/.306/.391. As for the catching and first base situations, the Mets have been trying to keep afloat since the Duda and d’Arnaud injuries. There is no timetable on Duda’s return. The expectation is d’Arnaud returns today.
This all tells us two things. First, Cespedes really didn’t make the players around him better last year. Yes, his presence in the lineup made the Mets a better team. However, him being a Met didn’t make the other Mets better players.
That leads to the second point, which is Sandy Alderson didn’t do the job he was tasked to do. He built a Mets team that lacked sufficient depth to carry the Mets through the anticipated Wright injury (even if the injury was of a different nature), and the likely Duda injury (again the injury was of a different nature).
So yes, Cespedes was great last year, and the Mets won. Cespedes has been similarly great this year, but the results are different. The results are different because it takes a lot more than Cespedes being great to make the Mets great. We know that now. Hopefully, so do the Mets.
From time to time, if you listen to the Mets telecasts close enough, you will hear Keith Hernandez tell the story of his 1975 season. After getting called-up and playing well in 1974, he thought he was in the majors for good. That wasn’t the case. In 1975, he was hitting .250/.309/.362 in 64 games. He left the Cardinals with little other choice but to send him down to the minors, and they did.
Initially, Hernandez was humiliated by the moment. However, he took advantage of the opportunity. Down in the minors, he got his swing right. He came back to the majors in 1976, and he he hit .289/.376/.428. He was back in the majors, and he was back for good. Hernandez would go on to win the 1979 batting title and MVP Award (shared with Willie Stargell). He had a bat to match his unparalleled defense. From that adversity, Hernandez would become a champion as a member of the 1982 and 1986 World Series teams. In total, Hernandez put together a borderline Hall of Fame career. It is something he might not have done had he not ever gone to the minors. As he has said, it was the best thing that ever happened to his career.
If you listen to Mets telecasts closely enough, you will also notice that Hernandez is a huge fan of Michael Conforto. You will also notice Conforto is struggling mightily like Hernandez did in 1975.
It was not too long ago that Conforto seemed to be a budding superstar. Having never played above AA, Conforto was called-up to the majors last year to hit .270/.335/.506 in 56 games. He hit two home runs in Game 4 of the World Series. He started this season off hitting .365/.442/.676 with four homers in April. The question then wasn’t whether he was major league ready, the question was how high his ceiling could possibly be. It seemed that Conforto was a likely All Star, possibly more. Then the calendar turned to May.
Since May 1st, Conforto has hit .157/.212/.321. There could be a multitude of reasons why this has happened from major league pitchers figuring him out and Conforto failing to make the needed adjustments to the cortisone shot Conforto needed in his wrist. Bottom line is Conforto has gone from playing at an All Star level to being a player who belongs in the minor leagues. Considering the fact that Terry Collins wants to “shake things up” it may be a signal that the Mets are willing to demote Conforto. It may not be the worst thing for Conforto or the Mets.
Conforto can go to Las Vegas and get himself right. He can spend time down there not only working on his swing but also his approach at the plate. Furthermore, hitting in a hitter’s haven like the Pacific Coast League could do wonders for a player that has been struggling for well over a month in the majors. We all saw how well this worked for Travis d’Arnaud back in 2014. He came back a much better player after his time in the minors. We also saw the positive effects of such a demotion with Keith Hernandez.
In the interim, the Mets could choose to give Alejandro De Aza some additional playing time to see if he can start playing like the player they thought he was when the Mets signed him in the offseason. The Mets could decided to turn to Brandon Nimmo who has been raking in AAA. Maybe, just maybe, the Mets could allow Conforto to start taking grounders at first considering James Loney is not the long term answer and no one knows when Lucas Duda can return from the disabled list.
Ultimately, this could be the best thing that has happened to both Conforto and the Mets. If the Mets have designs on returning to the World Series, they are going to need Conforto, who, when right, is the most complete hitter on the team. While he’s finding his stroke in the minors, Nimmo could get his chance to see if he is indeed ready to play in the majors. If Conforto is able to pick up first base, then the Mets could keep Nimmo in left when Conforto is ready to return to the majors. It might be time to send Conforto to AAA for not only his own good, but also for the good of the Mets.
After all, it worked for Keith Hernandez.
Lucas Duda went on the disabled list almost a month ago due to a stress fracture in his back. So far, the stress fracture in his back is not allowing him to do anything other than ride a stationary bike. As each day passes, the question needs to be asked about whether Duda can play again in 2016. The question needs to be asked about whether the Mets can sit and wait for Duda to return.
For the time being, the Mets solution has been James Loney. In his 13 games as a Met, Loney has hit .260/.302/.340 with 77 OPS+. This is as short sample size, but based upon his .280/.322/.357 batting line and 91 OPS+ last year, it may be fair to say that this is now who Loney is as a player. The positive aspects of having Loney is that he’s a better option than Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly. The negative is that his bat is just not going to cut it over the course of a season. If Duda is not going to be able to return, Loney’s bat is going to force the Mets to make another move for a long term solution at first base.
Obviously, if the Mets are going to make a move, they are going to have to obtain a player who is going to put up better numbers than Loney. At this point in the season, there are going to be very few sellers, and there are going to be very limited options at first base. At this point, the line of demarcation are teams that are under .500 teams who are at least ten games out of the division. That means if the Mets are going to upgrade at first base, they would be looking to swing a trade with the Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres. With those parameters in place, here is the list of potential trade targets
Joe Mauer – he’s returned to form hitting .286/.388/.420. However, given his contract and the fact that he’s the Twin’s David Wright, it’s hard to imagine the Mets would add his salary, and that the Twins would trade him.
C.J. Cron – Cron is the Mets version of Wilmer Flores. He’s a low OBP hitter with some pop in his bat. This year he is hitting .249/.305/.389, and he is a career .257/.389/.431 hitter. While Cron is still only 26, and he has some upside, he is not a clear upgrade over Loney.
Kole Calhoun – Presuming Calhoun can play first base everyday is a stretch considering he’s only played nine games there in his five year career. At the plate, he’s amidst a career year hitting .295/.369/.461 with eight homers. However, if the Mets do think he can play first base, it is going to take a lot to get from from the suddenly stingy Angels as Calhoun is still under team control until 2020.
Albert Pujols – there are $140 million reasons over the next five years why this will never happen.
Yonder Alonso – As a prospect in the Reds system, Alonso was supposed to be a slugging on base machine. This year he is nothing more than a .245/.306/.324 hitter. While his career .270/.336/.385 line is an upgrade over Loney, it is not clear that this version of Alonso will be.
Danny Valencia – it can’t be a Mets trade rumor analysis without mentioning Valencia who has played 25 career games at first base. He’s been great this year hitting .335/.379/.567 with 10 homers. He’s under team control until 2018. If Duda does return, he can shift to third. If Duda and Wright return, it’s a nice problem to have. The main sticking point with Valencia is going to be the cost.
Billy Butler – While Butler is best suited for DH, he has played first base almost every year of his career. Unfortunately, the question with respect to Butler isn’t his glove, it’s his bat. Butler is hitting .257/.296/.396 this year, and he has not had an OPS+ over 100 since 2013.
Ryan Howard – stick a fork in him, he’s done.
Freddie Freeman – the Braves have removed everything of value from this roster including the copper wiring. The only thing that remains is Freeman who is having a poor year hitting .248/.343/.432, which is to say, he’s a big upgrade over what the Mets have. Before this year, the 26 year old Freeman hit .286/.368/.467 in each of his five seasons as a starter. The main sticking points to a Mets/Braves trade will be the $106.5 million Freeman is owed through 2021. It’s a reasonable contract given his skill set and the fact that he will be 31 when the contract ends. However, it does not appear the Mets would be willing to take on that type of contract even if they were willing to part with the necessary prospects.
Chris Carter – This year Carter has been what he has always been – a pure slugger. Carter doesn’t walk, he strikes out a lot, and he hits a lot of homeruns. He’s hitting .223/.295/.507 this year with 17 homeruns. He would be the Mets homerun leader, but he is not getting on base. Carter is the all or nothing player that has been the entire Mets offense this year.
Joey Votto – he was a superstar, and he’s one of the few trade pieces the Reds actually have. He can be a real difference maker. However, he’s due $172 million until 2023, which is his age 39 season. After that he has a $7 million buyout.
Jay Bruce – he has three career games at first base, and he has a very reasonable $13 million trade option for next year. He has returned to form this year hitting .271/.329/.584 with 15 homers. The issue is the Reds turned down a straight up trade for Zack Wheeler last year. With that said, it does not appear there is room for a trade for Bruce even if you’re willing to ignore his limited first base exposure.
Paul Goldschmidt – there is absolutely no way the Diamondbacks are trading him.
Jake Lamb – he’s a young player having a breakout year, who is also under team control through 2o21. He’ll be easier to acquire than Goldschmidt, but this trade isn’t happening either.
Yasmany Tomas – Tomas is interesting because since he’s came to the majors from Cuba, the Diamondbacks aren’t quite sure where to play him. With him owed $55.5 million through 2020, the Diamondbacks may be willing to move their .260/.313/.425 hitter to retool so they can make another run for it next year (or the second half). However, his salary may be just want keeps the Mets at bay.
Wil Myers – The 25 year old Myers is finally living up to some of the potential everyone envisioned when he was traded to the Royals for James Shields. He’s in the All Star conversation as he is hitting .283/.324/.506 with 14 homers. He’s also versatile, which could be of great benefit to the Mets. All of this is also why the small market Padres would not want to trade him unless they are getting a massive haul in return.
Yangervis Solarte – like Myers, he’s having a terrific year, he’s versatile, and he’s under team controll. The Mets are going to part with a lot to get him.
Brett Wallace – Like Loney, Wallace is not hitting for power. Unlike Loney, he gets on base with a .208/.352/.369 batting line which is good for a 101 OPS+.
Overall, the first base upgrades that would be available for the Mets have bigger contracts. Seeing how the Mets have operated the past few seasons, it is difficult to imagine them being willing to pay someone like Freeman. It is also difficult to imagine the Mets would be willing to part with the prospects necessary to acquire a Solarte. In the end, this means the Mets are most likely sticking with Loney until Duda is able to return to the Mets.
As a Knicks fan, I remember in 1999 when Patrick Ewing went down with a partially torn Achillies tendon against the hated Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. The team’s leader was sidelined. He was robbed of what proved to be his last chance to win a championship. He gathered his teammates together, and he delivered a message:
I told them before practice started that I believe in them, and for them to go out there and get me my ring. They’re ready. They’re ready to get it for me.
As it turns out, the Knicks would rally to beat the Pacers, but they would falter against the much deeper and talented San Antonio Spurs.
Ewing never did get his ring. When the Knicks had won the Draft Lottery in 1985, the question was never whether Ewing would win a ring, it was how many rings he would win. Ewing always did his part. He won the Rookie of the Year Award. He was an 11 time All Star. He was the Knicks all-time leading scorer. He was named to the 1992 Dream Team that won gold in Barcelona. He was named one of the 50 greatest players in NBA history. To many, he is the greatest Knick to ever wear the uniform. Ewing did everything but win a ring. In many ways, he has become a tragic figure amongst Knicks fans.
That’s the fate befalling David Wright. When he was called-up in 2004, Mets fans were able to imagine him winning multiple World Series. That notion was fortified by the 2006 season. Then disaster struck in 2007 and 2008. The Mets were then terrible for nearly a decade. Through all of it Wright stayed with the Mets, and he played extremely well. He has had a borderline Hall of Fame career. With his spinal stenosis, the only left for Wright to reasonably accomplish is to win a World Series ring. He came painstakingly close last year. He’s on a team that is built to do it this year.
However, Wright is no longer going to be a part of that team. Wright now needs surgery to repair a herniated disc in his neck. While Wright and the Mets are not discounting his return to the team this year, there are others who suggest Wright will not be able to play again until the 2017 season. At that point, Wright will be a 34 year old who has spinal stenosis and a cervical fusion. While we have learned never to count Wright out, we cannot assuredly believe that he will be able to every play again. Furthermore, even if he will be able to play again, we don’t know what the Mets future holds.
Neil Walker will be a free agent. Yoenis Cespedes can opt out of his deal, and given his production, he will most likely opt out of his deal. Lucas Duda is dealing with a back issue for the second year in a row. Curtis Granderson will be another year older. The 2016 free agent class will be less than lackluster. There is no telling what this Mets team will look like next year regardless of whether or not Wright is on the team. With that said, this year could be Wright’s best year to win a ring. It could also be his last.
Wright has been important to this franchise and this current Mets team. Injuries have robbed Wright of so much during his career. He’s done everything he can do to help the Mets franchise add a third World Series title. It’s time for his teammates to pick up where he’s left off and go win it. It’s time for them to go out there and get him the ring the Knicks never could get Patrick Ewing.