Keith Hernandez
Back in 2012, the New York Mets announced their 50th Anniversary Team. Reviewing the list none of the players named should come as a surprise. It should come as even less of a surprise that of all the players named to the team, all the retired players have been inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame. Well, all but one player has.
The greatest second baseman in Mets history, Edgardo Alfonzo, still has not been inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame. He has not been inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame despite his being retired since 2006 and despite his presence in the Mets organization for the past few seasons. Put another way, this is not a player who has poor ties with the organization and that would be hard to bring back to honor him. Looking at it from that perspective, it is shocking to say the least that Alfonzo is not in the Mets Hall of Fame.
Judging by WAR alone, Alfonzo is the best middle infielder in Mets history posting a career 29.5 WAR as a Met. That 29.5 WAR ranks him as the seventh best Met in history. That puts him ahead of players like Keith Hernandez, Mike Piazza, and Bud Harrelson, all of whom have already been inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame. With that said, WAR only tells part of the story of the impact Alfonzo has had on Mets history.
In eight seasons as a New York Met, Alfonzo hit .292/.367/.445 with 120 homers and 538 RBI. In those eight years, Alfonzo was one of the best Mets to ever put on a uniform. It’s why he was named as the best second baseman in Mets history. Naturally, Alfonzo ranks high in the Top 10 in many offensive categories:
- Games (1,086) – 10th
- PA (4,449) – 8th
- AB (3,897) – 9th
- Runs (614) – 5th
- Hits (1,136) – 5th
- Doubles (212) – 6th
- Homers (120) – 9th
- XBH (346) – 8th
- RBI (538) – 7th
- Average (.292) – tied 5th
- OBP (.367) – 7th
The advanced numbers paint a number better picture of Alfonzo. His WAR is fourth best for a Mets position player, second for a Mets infielder, and the best for a Mets middle infielder. His 2000 6.4 WAR ranks as the fifth best season by a Mets position player. His defensive WAR is the sixth best in Mets history, third best by a Mets infielder, and best by a Mets second baseman. He ranks fifth in runs created, eighth in adjusted batting runs, and eighth in WPA.
Alfonzo led the Mets in runs, hits, and doubles in the 1990s. In that same decade, he also had the finished second in games played, at bats, total bases, and RBI. In the decade he was also fourth in triples, seventh in homers, eighth in stolen bases, third in walks, and third in batting average. Arguably, he was the Mets best player of the decade.
In addition to these numbers, Alfonzo was named to an All Star team (should have been more than the one), won a Silver Slugger, and had three top 15 MVP finishes. He finished second in Gold Glove voting in 1999 and 2001 as a second baseman. In 1997, he finished second in Gold Glove voting as a third baseman. Still, Alfonzo was much more than all of this.
When thinking of Alfonzo it is near impossible to choose just one moment that highlights his career. You can start with him being part of the greatest defensive infield ever assembled. In the 1999 Wild Card play-in game, he followed Rickey Henderson‘s leadoff home run with a home run of his own to give Al Leiter all the cushion he needed for the Mets to claim the Wild Card and head to the NLDS. In Game One of the NLDS, he would homer off Randy Johnson in the first inning to give the Mets a 1-0 lead, and then he would hit a grand slam off of Bobby Chouinard in the ninth to break the 4-4 tie. In the clinching Game 4, he got the Mets on the board with a fourth inning homer off of Brian Anderson.
Alfonzo would come up similarly big in the 2000 NLDS. In Game 2, with the Mets already down 1-o in the series, and with Armando Benitez having blown the save, Alfonzo ripped a double down the left field line scoring Lenny Harris. Lost in the shuffle of that inning was the fact that he had hit a home run in the ninth giving the Mets some much needed insurance runs. In any event, the RBI double allowed the Mets to tie the series and return to the NLCS for a second consecutive year. In the 2000 NLCS, Alfonzo was one of a few Mets that probably should have been named the NLCS MVP. In the five game series, Alfonzo hit an incredible .444/.565/.611 with five runs, a double, a triple, and four RBI.
Unsurprisingly, Alfonzo is the Mets all-time leader in postseason hits, games played, and g0-ahead hits. In fact, four of those hits were in the 7th inning or later. That is the second best mark in postseason history – not Mets postseason history – all of baseball history.
Speaking of hits, Alfonzo became the first ever Met to go 6/6 in a game. In what ranks as the most impressive hitting display in Mets history, Alfonzo hit three home runs and a double while recording five RBI. There have been no Mets and only one National League player that has posted a higher game score since 1999.
Somehow, some way none of this has garnered Alfonzo enough support to be inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame. It’s wrong because Alfonzo is not just the best second baseman in Mets history, he is the best middle infielder in Mets history. He was a pivotal member of two teams that went to the postseason, and he had huge hits on those postseasons. He has set a number of Mets records. Overall, there is absolutely no way you can deny that Alfonzo is one of the best players in Mets history. Accordingly, he deserves enshrinement into the Mets Hall of Fame.
On a cold and blustery Christmas Eve night at Citi Field, faithful manager Terry Collins enters Fred Wilpon’s office.
Terry: I just wanted to stop on my way out to wish you and your family a happy holiday, and I just wanted to let you know I look forward to working with you and Sandy to help build a Mets team that can go to the World Series again.
Fred: What do you mean build?
Terry: Well, there are a few areas I was hoping to address. With Fernando Salas and Jerry Blevins free agents, we need a couple of relievers in the bullpen, and –
Fred: Relievers? I just gave you two guys last week!
Terry: I know, but those were minor league deals.
Fred: I don’t get it. After Madoff, I’ve done all I could do to get my money back, and now everyone wants me to just give it away.
Terry: Well, we do owe the fans.
Fred: Seriously?
Terry: Well, I guess not. Anyway, happy holidays, and I look forward to next season.
Fred: Bah!
Not long after Terry leaves, Fred Wilpon leaves Citi Field, and he begins his drive to Greenwich. He pulls up to a stately manor that hasn’t been renovated since 2008. He makes his way into the bedroom, and before he can turn on the lights, he hears a ghostly whisper coming from behind him. It sounds like his name, but he initially can’t quite make it out. Suddenly, as if out of nowhere a figure emerges.
Fred: No, it can’t be. Is that really you?
M. Donald Grant: It is.
Fred: But, you’re dead. How? How?
M. Donald Grant: I’ve come here to deliver a message.
Fred: What?
M. Donald Grant: Remember when I was alive, I won a World Series, and then I refused pay raises to everyone. Remember when I shipped Tom Seaver and everyone of value out of town?
Fred: All while keeping the team profitable!
M. Donald Grant: Yup, I mean no. No! I was wrong, and now I have to watch the 1962 Mets over and over again. But worse, I have to give the players raises after each and every game despite no one coming to the ballpark!
Fred: The horror.
M. Donald Grant: And if you don’t change, your fate will be worse than mine.
Fred: No . . . NO! . . . You’ve got to save me.
M. Donald Grant: Tonight, you will be visited by three spirits. Listen to them! Do what they say! Or you will be cursed for eternity.
And with that the apparition of Grant faded away leaving Fred frightened in his room. A few times he splashed cold water on his face and pinched himself to make sure he wasn’t dreaming. Still shaken, Fred made his way to bed. After a while, his fatigue got the better of his anxiety, and he faded to sleep. Then there was a loud noise like the roar of the crowd. It jostled Fred from his sleep. Still groggy, he looked out and couldn’t believe the figure before him.
Fred: No, it can’t be. Is it really you Gary?
Before Fred was Hall of Fame catcher Gary Carter. Back in 1985, when Fred had just a small interest in the team, the Mets traded for Carter in the hopes that he would put the Mets over the top. Eventually, Carter did with the Mets winning the 1986 World Series. Notably, Carter started the game winning two out rally in the bottom of the 10th to allow the Mets to force a Game 7.
Gary: It’s really me Fred. I’m now the Ghost of Baseball Past.
Fred: Am I dead?
Gary: No, you’re not. I’m here to show you what things used to be like before you changed the way you did business with the Mets.
With that Gary, took a swing of the bat creating a cloud of dust and smoke all over the room. As the dust settled, the Mets found themselves back in a sold out Shea Stadium.
Fred: What a dump!
Gary: You didn’t always think so. In fact, you used to love coming here. Back in the 80s, Shea Stadium was the place to be. Those Mets teams were stacked with players like me, Keith Hernandez, Darryl Strawberry, and tonight’s starter Dwight Gooden.
Fred: Those Gooden starts were something special. No one could beat us then, and we knew it. We never could quite capture the magic from those teams again, but that was something special.
Gary: This is how things used to be. It was always this way. You did it again when you signed Mike Piazza, except you didn’t just sign him. You surrounded him with good players like Robin Ventura and Edgardo Alfonzo. That team came close. You did it again with Carlos Beltran. You spent the extra dollar to get a truly great player. You then added players like Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana to try to get it done. It didn’t work, but the fans came. More importantly, everyone respected you for it.
Fred: But they don’t understand.
Gary: Let’s see what happened next.
With a blink of Fred’s eye, Shea Stadium is just a memory. As he reopens his eyes, he is back in Citi Field as it was before it was fully renovated. The fans were angry with the team. It was one thing that the ballpark didn’t fully honor Mets history; it was another that the Mets let Jose Reyes walk in the offseason without so much as an offer. It was an uninspiring 88 loss win team that was seemingly going nowhere.
Fred: When did we put the Great Wall of Flushing back in? Where are all the fans?
Gary: You didn’t. It’s 2012.
Fred: That was an ugly time. Fans constantly complaining and booing. The team and I were personally cash strapped. I had no idea what our future was or could be. Worse yet, no one seemed to understand. The fans, the players, the press. No one. The whole thought of this time is just too much to bear. I can’t . . .
Before Fred could finish the sentence, he was hit in the head by a foul ball off the bat of Daniel Murphy. Next thing Fred knew, he was awake, with a headache back in his bed in Greenwich.
Fred: Man, I really have to lay off the Shake Shack late at night. It gives me the strangest dreams. And man, just remembering those days just gives me a headache. I never want to get back to that point . . .
As the words left Fred’s lips, there was a strange noise. Fred looked over, and he sees beloved former announcer and Hall of Famer Ralph Kiner in what appears to be old set of Kiner’s Korner.
Fred: Ralph?
Ralph: Well hi everybody it’s Ralph Kiner, the Ghost of Christmas Present, on Kiner’s Korner. Well the Mets are in the middle of the offseason after the team failed to win the Wild Card Game. While the team acted quickly and brought back Neil Walker and Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets offseason has been marked by inactivity. Recently, Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson stated the Mets were going to have to move a contract like Jay Bruce or Curtis Granderson before they could sign additional players this offseason. We have Mets owner Fred Wilpon on to talk about it next.
Fred: Ralph?
Ralph: Welcome back to Kiner’s Korners. As you know Kiner’s Koners is sponsored by Rheingold – the Dry Beer!
Ralph: Hi Mr. Wilpon, welcome to Kiner’s Korners.
Fred: I’m not sure what exactly is happening here.
Ralph: Well, Mr. Wilpon, we’re here to talk about your team and what the 2017 roster will look like.
Fred: We’ve given Sandy free reign to do whatever he needs to do to put the best team on the field. We trust in his decision making, and we always demure to him on personnel decisions.
Ralph: Well Mr. Wilpon, there are not many that believe you. In fact, the fans will say that the team isn’t going to spend the money on the players like the Mets should. It reminds me back when I had won another home run title for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and I went to Branch Rickey to ask for a raise. During the meeting, Rickey denied me a raise saying, “We finished eighth with you, we can finish eighth without you.” From there of course, I was then traded to the Chicago Cubs. This is the same Chicago Cubs franchise that won their first World Series title since 1908. The Cubs were once defeated –
Fred: Okay, okay. No, we’re not spending any money until we move a contract. That’s just the way things work now. This isn’t the old days where Omar gets free reign.
Ralph: Well, the fans are angry the team isn’t spending money. And I remember as a player how much the team wanted to know the owner supported them. When the team had the support of ownership it had an effect in the clubhouse and the play on the field.
Fred: Let’s be honest. The fans will let me do whatever I want so long as we’re winning. With the team we have now, we’re going to fill the seats because we have Cespedes. We have free t-shirts. We get to hype up the starts of not just Matt Harvey, but also Noah Syndergaard. As for the players, the only thing they really care about is their salary.
Ralph: That’s not true. Here is a videotape of your captain David Wright.
A large screen appears on the set of Kiner’s Korner with an image of Wright at his home talking to Collins about the upcoming season.
Collins: I know it may be a little late, but I wanted to wish you and your family a Merry Christmas. And I wanted to let you know that we’re all pulling for you to get back out on that field.
David: It’s hard skip. I wake up in pain everyday. It was bad enough when it was just the stenosis, but now it is my neck too. I just spend all of my day rehabbing and working out. I do all these special exercises for my back and my neck. It’s almost 24 hours of pure hell. It’s made all the harder by the fact that every minute I spend working out is time away from my wife and daughter. Baseball has always been a sacrifice, and I love it. But it just gets harder and harder.
Collins: You know the whole team is behind you. If there is anything you ever need, you just have to ask. And if you feel as if you can’t go on, you’ll always have a place on my staff.
David: I can’t hang ’em up. Not yet. Not with this team. We’re so close. I’ve come so close to the World Series a few times in my career, and I’ve fallen short. I don’t know if I’ll ever feel right hanging it up without winning one.
Fred: This is costing me $20 million a year.
David: And it’s not just about me. I owe a World Series to Mets fans who have supported me my whole career. They’ve gone out and bought my jerseys. They’ve cheered for me. They’ve always been there for me. And more importantly, I owe it to the Wilpon family. I saw what happened with Reyes and the other players who left. They decided to keep me. They made me the face of the franchise and the team captain. I’ve loved being a Met, and the Wilpons made that possible.
Fred: I just never knew how much he cared and how appreciative he was.
Ralph: Time for another commercial break and word from our sponsor the Ghost of Christmas Future.
Everything turns to black like a television screen being turned off. At first, Fred sits there quietly unsure of what is happening. He then finds himself in a strange room with Darryl Hamilton wearing his black Mets jersey. The same jerseys the Wilpons wanted to help drum up fan interest and help increase revenues. At first, Hamilton says nothing. He just looks at Fred before gesturing for Fred to follow him.
Fred follows Darryl down a hallway. Eventually, an image of a badly beaten down Wright emerges. On the walls are different jerseys he wore in his career. A shelf displays all of his awards and his 2015 National League Pennant ring. Wright moves around the room but with great difficulty. Although still relatively young, he moves like an old man. He’s there with another person.
Woman: Look, this is not going to happen overnight. With the beating your body has taken you’re luck you’re even in position to walk.
David: I don’t care. I need you to get me to the point where I can dance again. There is nothing that is going to stop me from dancing at my daughter’s wedding.
Woman: Ok, but we need to take it slowly. You’ve had a number of injuries in your career, especially those last few. Doing things like dancing is going to come with some difficulty for you. The trick is to build everything up so you can do it again.
Fred: What, what happened to him?
Darryl only nods his head in the direction of the trophy case.
Fred: He never won? But we had Harvey and Syndergaard. We had Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz. We had Cespedes. Of course we won at least one. There is no way we let that core go without winning a World Series. Surely, we made a move to get that final piece at least one of those years.
David: On cold days like this, it really makes me wonder how wise it was sticking to the end of my contract rather than just medically retiring the way Albert Belle and Prince Fielder did. I really wonder if Prince has the same problems I have. Still, I would do it all over again because trying to win that ring was important not just for my career, the fans, and Fred.
Woman: What happened?
David: We were so close, but we shot ourselves in the foot in 2015. After that, we always just seemed one or two players short. We gave it the best we could, but it just wasn’t meant to be . . . .
As David drifts off, Darryl gestures for Fred to re-enter the dark hallway. The two make their way down before standing outside the Rotunda entrance to Citi Field. Nearby is a group of men putting up a few statues. In the parking lot adjacent to 126th Street, there are a number of moving vans.
Worker 1: Honestly, it is about time there was a Tom Seaver statue erected at Citi Field. I think adding the Piazza one as well was a nice touch.
Worker 2: Things have been a lot better around here with the new guys came in.
Worker 1: And ain’t no one going to miss the old group.
Worker 2: How can you? They let the whole thing fall apart.
Worker 1: Good riddance!
Fred: What is happening here? What old group? Who authorized these statues?
With that Fred began a dead sprint towards the entrance to the executive offices, but he was distracted by a commotion happening at McFadden’s. Despite wanting to get back to his office, Fred found himself drawn to the bar where he found a group of people in celebration.
Man: Shhh! It’s about to be on the television.
Reporter: After years of seeing homegrown players sign elsewhere, and the Mets having been inactive on the free agent market, Citi Field has become eerily reminiscent of Grant’s Tomb in the 1970s. With fan interest at a nadir and record low revenues for the team, it became time for a change.
Fred: Darryl! What are they talking about?
Man: This is a dream come true for me. As a little boy sitting int he Upper Deck at Shea Stadium, I never imagined I would be in the position I am here today. And yet, here I am.
Cheers spread through McFaddens making the sound from the televisions inaudible.
Man: Back in 1980, the late Nelson Doubleday purchased the New York Mets from the Payson family. From that day, a new era of Mets prosperity began with ownership investing not just in good baseball people, but also its players and its fans. My pledge to the Mets fans is to operate this club much in the same fashion as Mr. Doubleday, and with that, a new era of Mets prominence will begin.
As cheers fill the room and the bartenders try to keep up with the customers needing drinks, a bewildered Fred turns back to Darryl.
Fred: Darryl, what is happening with my team? Was it . . .
As Fred trails off, he can see a sullen Jeff Wilpon standing out on the sidewalk waiting for a driver to take him home. Before Jeff could get into the car, he is ambushed by a group of reporters. Instinctively, Jeff runs out to assist his son.
Reporter: How do you feel today?
Jeff: How do you expect me to feel? The thing that mattered most to my father is now gone.
Reporter: What message do you have for Mets fans?
Jeff: I’m not sure where you guys have been all these years. If you came to the park, we might’ve been able to improve the team and prevent this day from happening.
Fred: Jeff, don’t tell me you did it! Don’t tell me you sold my team!
Reporter: How do you think your father would feel about this moment?
Jeff: Look guys, it’s been a hard day in what has been a hard few years. I just want to go home to my family.
Fred: Jeff! Jeff! I’m over here! Jeff!
With Jeff being worn down by the questioning, and his being unable to hear his father scream, he enters the car. Initially, Fred heads toward Jeff while repeatedly asking him what happened with the Mets. With Jeff being unresponsive, and with Fred knowing he’s not going to be able to get to the door in time, he runs in front of the car in an attempt to stop it. The car pulls from the curb, makes contact with Fred, and everything goes black.
The sun begins to rise, and it begins to light Fred’s room in Greenwich. The sun shines in Fred’s eyes causing him to initially squint. When he realizes that a new day has begun, Fred eagerly jumps from his bed, and he checks his iPhone.
Fred: It’s December 25, 2016! I still own the team! The spirits have given me another chance!
Fred grabs his phone, and he calls his secretary to immediately set up a conference call with Collins, Alderson, and Wright.
Fred: I’m sorry to bother you on Christmas morning, but I felt like this couldn’t wait any longer. We have a window here, and we have to take advantage of it. Sandy, the shackles are off. You have everything you need at your disposal. We owe Terry the best team possible for him to lead the Mets back to the World Series. And we owe it to you David because you stuck by us when times were at their lowest. We can’t let you finish your career without winning a World Series. It wouldn’t be fair, and it wouldn’t be right.
Terry: Thank you, and God bless you Mr. Wilpon!
David: God bless us everyone!
Overall, I have decided to vote for Vladimir Guerrero, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, and Larry Walker on my IBWAA ballot. If they were up for IBWAA vote, I would have also voted for Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell while not voting for Edgar Martinez. In looking at Kent, Mussina, and Walker, I went back over their careers, and I re-assessed whether or not I should vote for them. Ultimately, I did. I did the same with players I did not vote for, and as a result, I added one to my ballot:
Fred McGriff, 1B
Stats: 19 seasons, .284/.377/.509, 2,490 H, 441 2B, 24 3B, 493 HR, 1,550 RBI, 38 SB
Advanced: 52.4 WAR, 35.8 WAR7, 44.1 JAWS
Awards: 3X Silver Slugger, 5X All Star
During Hall of Fame voting, many times you will hear about a player being a compiler. There are two ways you can define compiler: (1) someone who put up a number of counting stats over a very good but not great long career; or (2) Fred McGriff.
Arguably, McGriff was never a truly great player. In fact, from a WAR perspective, he only had three seasons that you would rate him at superstar or MVP level. If you take out the partial seasons he played in his first and last year, McGriff averaged a 3.1 WAR. Basically, this means for most of McGriff’s career, he was a very good, but not quite All Star caliber player. In that sense, his five All Star appearances seem right on the money.
Like Guerrero. McGriff’s advanced statistics were held down by his perceived poor base running and defense. Certainly, McGriff was no Keith Hernandez out there. In fact, despite his appearance on the Tom Emanski videos, McGriff was not a particularly good first baseman. Certainly, his .992 fielding percentage was nothing special as far as first baseman go. It goes a long way in explaining why McGriff had a -18.1 dWAR in his career. With that said, I am not sure how reliable that -18.1 figure is.
One of McGriff’s contemporaries at first base was the man who replaced him at first base in Toronto – John Olerud. In Olerud’s playing days, he was considered a very good first baseman who won four Gold Gloves, and in reality, probably should have won more. That notion has been reinforced by some advanced metrics. For his career, Olerud’s dWAR was -2.
When reputation and advanced metrics agree a players is a good defensive player at his position, and dWAR completely disagrees, it gives you pause as to whether the calculation is entirely correct. Assuming McGriff was only half as bad as dWAR suggested, his career WAR would increase to 61.5, which would leave him only 4.4 WAR short of what the average Hall of Famer was. In fact, you could conclude McGriff was a poor first baseman that merited a negative dWAR and still have him reach the average WAR for a first baseman.
Despite all this hand wringing, the fact remains McGriff probably falls short of being a Hall of Famer due to his defense, and yes, defense matters. With that said, there are two other factors which give McGriff the benefit of the doubt.
First, McGriff was a money player that was typically at his best when there was a lot at stake. Using the baseline of his .284/.377/.509 career slash line, here are McGriff’s stats in big situations:
- RISP: .277/.403/.479
- RISP, two outs: .241/.399/.421
- High Leverage: .290/.385/.500
Typically speaking, McGriff was at a minimum slightly better in pressure situations.
Another example of how good McGriff was in pressure situations was the 1993 season. At the time the Braves acquired McGriff, the Braves trailed the San Francisco Giants by nine games in the National League West Standings. Over the final 68 games of the season, McGriff would hit an astounding .310/.392/.612 with 19 homers and 55 RBI. Essentially, McGriff was Yoenis Cespedes before Cespedes was Cespedes. The Braves needed each and every single one of those homers as they finished one game ahead of the Giants in the standings.
Granted, that was just one season. However, McGriff’s clutch hitting was also evident in the postseason. In 50 postseason games, McGriff was a .303/.385/.532 hitter with 10 homers and 37 RBI. His clutch postseason hitting helped the Braves win their only World Series with the vaunted Greg Maddux–Tom Glavine–John Smoltz rotation. In the 1995 postseason, McGriff hit .333/.415/.649 with four homers and nine RBI.
Overall, his postseason play combined with the question marks surrounding the defensive statistics that push his WAR outside Hall of Fame averages is enough for him to get my vote even if it is my the narrowest or margins.
There is one other small factor at play. Anyone who saw McGriff towards the end of his career knew he was sticking around to try to get to 500 homers. At the time, 500 homers was a golden benchmark which led to almost automatic Hall of Fame induction. Well, McGriff didn’t get there as he fell seven home runs short. He fell seven home runs short because he began his career in a de facto platoon with Cecil Fielder. He fell seven home runs short because of the 1994 strike. He fell seven home runs short because there were pitchers juicing while he wasn’t. He fell seven home runs short because he was washed up at age 40. Ultimately, he fell seven home runs short because he just wasn’t good enough to get those seven home runs.
Do you know where he would rank on the all-time home run list with those seven extra home runs? 11th. Do you know where he currently stands on the list? 11th. Ultimately, seven home runs over the course of a 19 year career is about one-third of a home run per season. One-third of a home run per season doesn’t amount to much. If that is the case, seven home runs should not be the line of demarcation between him being a Hall of Famer and him not garnering much support.
With or without the seven home runs, you can justify voting for McGriff who had a good career for almost all of his 19 seasons. He has certainly done enough to justify being inducted into Cooperstown.
One of the biggest issues with the 2017 Mets was the production they received from first base. The precipitous drop in production was a major factor in why the 2016 Mets scored fewer runs than the 2015 Mets. Remember, the 2015 Mets once infamously had John Mayberry, Jr. and Eric Campbell hitting in the middle of the lineup. With that in mind, getting improved production out of first base needs to be a priority for the Mets this offseason. Here is what should be available for the Mets this offseason:
INTERNAL FIRST BASEMAN
Duda is exactly the player the Mets need to revive their offense in 2017. From 2014-2015, Duda hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. He is a home run threat in the middle of your order, and he is the classic slugging first baseman.
The issue with Duda is no one knows if he is healthy. In 2015, he went on the disabled list with a herniated disc in his lower back. In 2016, he suffered a stress fracture in his lower back, and he took longer than expected to return from the injury. While he tried admirably to try to play in the Wild Card Game, he just wasn’t ready. For the season, he only played in 47 games hitting .229/.302/.412 with seven homers and 23 RBI.
While all indications are Duda is completely healthy, it is unknown whether he can withstand the rigors of a 162 game schedule. It is also unknown whether he can return to form after suffering back injuries in consecutive seasons. At the moment, it is anticipated he will earn approximately $7 million in arbitration. For the production we know he is capable of producing, that is a steep bargain. Not knowing if he can produce, $7 million could be an expensive gamble, especially in light of Wright’s situation.
Smith is coming off a terrific year in AA where he finally began to fulfill some of the offensive potential he has by hitting for more power in the second half of the season. He is a a highly regarded prospect who is already a slick defender at first base. Still, he is just 21 years old, and he has yet to have an at-bat above AAA. He is not ready to be the Opening Day first baseman, and it is quite possible he may not be ready to play in the majors next year.
PLAYERS CHANGING POSITIONS
Time and again, people state Wright should just move across the diamond and play first base. Saying that presents a clear misunderstanding of the first base position and how taxing it would be on Wright.
Other than catcher, first base is the most demanding physical position for a player. At first base, a player is constantly stretching, turning, and twisting in the hopes of getting a throw from one of his infielders that much quicker to turn a close play into an out. With a runner on first, the first baseman has to spring off the bag and into his defensive position as the pitcher delivers the ball. Like a third baseman, he charges the bunts and dives for balls down the line. According to Dr. Walter P. Jacobsen, DO, a neurosurgeon, these activities that are high impact and require twisting are activities that should be avoided. These activities are more prevalent at first than third base.
Even assuming this was incorrect, that Wright was better suited to first base, when is he going to get the opportunity to transition there? Wright had season ending cervical fusion surgery, and presumably, he is going to need to spend most of his time in the offseason rehabbing and figuring out yet another pregame routine that will permit him to play in as many games as possible. As such, there is no time for him to learn first base.
Without or without Cespedes’ return, the Mets are going to have a glut of everyday caliber outfielders, and one of them may need to find a new home. That new home could be on another team or at another position. With UZR and DRS rating Bruce was the Mets worst outfielder, he would be the likely candidate to move to first base.
The one caution is Bruce has only played three games there in his major league career, and all three of those games were two years ago. Even accounting for that, Bruce may have the athleticism to adapt to first base and succeed there on the major league level. It is also a way to keep him and his 30 home run caliber bat in the lineup every day while also allowing Curtis Granderson, another Mets right fielder who can hit 30 home runs, in the lineup everyday.
Still, before moving someone over to first base, Mike Piazza should always be a caution to Mets fans that not just anyone can move over there. It is a difficult position that requires hard work in the offseason. If this is the plan, the Mets need to implement it sooner rather than later.
None other than Keith Hernandez believes Conforto should be playing first base with him saying, “He more than likely is going to end up at first base, though it’s unlikely he’ll be anything more than average there.” (nj.com). While it is far from a ringing endorsement, it is notable when Hernandez, the best defensive first baseman in major league history, states you should play his position.
For his part, Conforto is open to the possibility saying, “I took some reps in college over at first base just for emergency-type situations. I think that’s something that’s very, very interesting, something I’d be open to, obviously. I just want to help the team.” (New York Post).
Moving Conforto there means you won’t have to displace a veteran like Bruce. However, it does create a few problems. First, choosing to move Conforto over Bruce also means choosing to move the better defensive outfielder out of the outfield. Second, moving Conforto there could become a potential barrier to Smith or Peter Alonso at first base in the upcoming seasons. Third, having Conforto change positions to the infield could be yet another obstacle in the young player’s development.
For a myriad of reasons ranging from a wrist injury to uneven playing time to him just falling into slumps like any other player, the 2016 season was a lost one for Conforto. He went from the Mets top hitting prospect to a young player Terry Collins entrusted to little more than pinch hitting duty down the stretch. It is quite possible the best thing for him is for the Mets to pick a position in the outfield and let him stay there and allow him to work with Kevin Long to get back to what worked well for him.
EXPENSIVE OPTIONS
Tigers GM Al Avila has already announced the Tigers are looking to get younger and shed some payroll this offseason. With that in mind, the Tigers have a number of interesting trade candidates making big money like Cabrera.
At 33, Cabrera had another terrific season hitting .316/.393/.563 with 38 homers and 108 RBI. Should Cespedes depart this offseason, Cabrera would more than replace Cespedes in the lineup. However, the Mets chances of obtaining Cabrera are unlikely due to the cost. First, it is going to take a huge haul of players to obtain them, and in the past, the Mets have shown unwillingness to move one of their big pitchers like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, or Steven Matz. Given Cabrera’s production, it is likely the Tigers ask for one of these players and/or a big prospect like Smith, Amed Rosario, or both.
Even if there was a middle ground on players the Mets deemed acceptable, it is hard to imagine them adding Cabrera’s contract. Cabrera still has seven years $132 million left on his deal. The contract carries through to his age 40 season, and there are two vesting options at the back end of the deal for $30 million a piece. If Cabrera does not age well, this contract would become the type of albatross Sandy Alderson typically avoids.
Bringing back Turner would be a page out of the Todd Zeile handbook. While Turner has not played regularly at first base, he has shown the ability to play over there, and his bat may help the Mets improve in 2016.
Moreover, Turner may need to move to first base to lengthen his career. Over the past few seasons, he has had knee issues, and he may not be well suited for the third base position in the time of the modern shift era that requires a third baseman to cover more ground than they did a decade or so ago.
There does remain some issues for Turner. First and foremost is the aforementioned knee issues. Second, Turner took off when he played in his hometown. There is no telling if he would struggle playing on the east coast again. Third, he regressed from an on base perspective this year. In 2014 and 2015, Turner was a player who had a .384 on base percentage with a .492 slugging. This year, Turner’s OBP dropped to .339 even while his slugging percentage stayed in the same vicinity (.493). This might have been a product of his knee issues or it could have been a product of him swinging for the fences more as evidenced by his career high 27 homers.
In either event, Turner is not the safest choice, especially when you are asking him to play out of position. These fears become magnified when you consider Turner will likely received a qualifying offer, and he will likely get a big contract offer from someone, including but not limited to the Dodgers, to play third base.
THE DESIGNATED HITTERS
Encarnacion may prove to be the biggest power bat on the free agent market. He is coming off a year that saw him hit .263/.357/.529 with 42 homers and a league leading 127 RBI. Over the past three seasons, Encarnacion is hitting .269/.361/.544 while averaging 38 homers and 112 RBI.
There are two issues with Encarnacion. First, much of his stats have been generated as a result of him hitting in the Rogers Centre, which is a hitter’s park. In his career, Encarnacion has hit .272/.360/.535 there. Last year, on the road, Encarnaction was a .246/.342/.492 hitter on the road. While it is a drop-off, the Mets would gladly take Encarnacion’s road production from their first base position next year.
Therein lies the real problem with Encarnacion. He’s a DH. Encarnacion has not played more than half a season at first base in his entire career. In his last five years with the Blue Jays, he has split his time between first and DH. While advanced metrics like UZR and DRS rate him to be an average first baseman, it is unknown whether he could withstand the rigors of playing in the field everyday. Those concerns are amplified for a player that will turn 34 next year, will command a large contract, and will most likely recent a qualifying offer.
Seemingly, from the moment Santana came up to the Cleveland Indians as a catcher, the team has sought a position for him. He has proven his best position is DH.
Santana is coming off a terrific year that saw him hit ..259/.366/.498 with 34 homers and 87 RBI. Those were the highest home run and RBI totals of his career. In his six full seasons with the Indians, Santana has averaged 24 homers and 81 RBI. With his on base skills and his switch hitting ability, Santana would be a welcome addition to the Mets lineup. However, like Encarnacion, the real question is whether he can be an everyday first baseman.
Like Encarnaction, he rates as average when he does play there. Unlike Encarnacion, he played almost a full season there in 2015. Moreover, he is four years younger than Encarnacion. So while both may receive qualifying offers and large contract offers on the free agent market, Santana may prove to be the better bet for the Mets should they look to upgrade the first base position in free agency.
QUESTIONABLE OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION
The best thing you can say about Loney in 2016 was he was a definitive upgrade over the Mets internal options like Campbell. Unfortunately, Loney showed little that would entice the Mets to bring him back next season. Loney finished the year hitting .257/.287/.369 with five homers and 18 RBI in 63 games after the All Star Break. He also showed he had limited range and an inability to stretch far for throws made to first. While he was an improvement over what the Mets had in 2016, the Mets are simply going to have to do better than him in 2017.
The Cleveland Indians took a one year flier on Napoli this offseason, and it has been a boon for them as Napoli has been a major contributor for a team now playing in the World Series. Still, there is caution for Napoli, who has a history of hip problems, and whose numbers were not great this season.
In 150 games, Napoli hit .239/.335/.465 with 34 homers and 101 RBI. In 2015, Napoli bounced around, and he hit .224/.324/.410 with 18 homers and 50 RBI in 133 games. With Napoli turning 35 next year, it is hard to believe he will have another strong campaign. Furthermore, the last thing this Mets offense needs is another low OBP guy who is seemingly all or nothing at the plate.
For a few seasons, Lind had proven himself to be a good on base player who may not have the traditional power you typically want from the first base position. In 2016, Lind played for the Mariners, and his production fell off a cliff. In 126 games, Lind hit .239/.286/.431 with 20 homers and 58 RBI. Historically, Lind has also struggled to hit left-handed pitching. Lind is more of a buy-low candidate in the event there are no better options than he is an upgrade you would seek on the free agent market.
BEST CHOICE
Ultimately, it may behoove the Mets to bring back Duda for one more season. If he produces at his normal levels, he will be exactly what this offense needs. Better yet, if he produces at that level, the Mets could give him a qualifying offer next offseason thereby helping them gain a first round draft pick in the process (assuming no changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement). Furthermore, with Duda, the Mets have a nice bridge to Smith should he take another leap this year and prove himself ready to contribute at the major league level ahead of schedule.
There are many factors to consider when voting for a candidate today. At this point, they have all be regurgitated and discussed at length, and hopefully, you have made your decision based upon sound criteria. However, if you are looking for a reason to change your mind or reason to have your mind made up for you, or you really want to base this important decision on how the Mets have fared with a Republican or a Democrat in office, you are in luck. Here is how the Mets have performed under each President in their 54 year history:
| President | Seasons | Record | Win % |
| John F. Kennedy | 1962 – 1963 | 91 – 231 | 0.283 |
| Lyndon B. Johnson | 1964 – 1968 | 303 – 506 | 0.375 |
| Richard M Nixon | 1969 – 1974* | 478 – 433 | 0.525 |
| Gerald R. Ford | 1974* – 1976 | 263 – 277 | 0.487 |
| Jimmy Carter | 1977 – 1980 | 260 – 388 | 0.401 |
| Ronald Reagan | 1981 – 1988 | 662 – 573 | 0.536 |
| George H.W. Bush | 1989 – 1992 | 386 – 423 | 0.477 |
| William Jefferson Clinton | 1993 – 2000 | 562 – 506 | 0.526 |
| George W. Bush | 2001 – 2008 | 651 – 643 | 0.503 |
| Barack Obama | 2009 – 2016 | 630-666 | 0.486 |
* Nixon resigned from office August 9, 1974
Here are the cumulative results:
| Party | Record | Win% |
| Democrat | 1,846 – 2,297 | 0.446 |
| Republican | 2,440 – 2,349 | 0.510 |
Here are some interesting Mets postseason facts when there was a Democrat or Republican in the White House.
Democrat Postseason Facts
- The two times the Mets have been to back-to-back postseasons was when there was a Democrat in the White House (1999 & 2000 – Clinton; 2015 & 2016 – Obama)
- The Mets have only had an NLCS MVP when there was a Democrat in the White House (Mike Hampton – 2000; Daniel Murphy – 2015)
- The Mets have only won the division once (2015) with a Democrat in office. The other three postseason appearances were as the Wild Card.
- The Mets have appeared in four total postseasons and two World Series. The Mets are 21-17 in postseason games with the following records per round:
Wild Card Game 0 – 1 NLDS 9 – 4 NLCS 10 – 4 World Series 2 – 8
Republican Postseason Facts
- The Mets have won their only two World Series with a Republican in office (1969 – Nixon; 1986 – Reagan)
- In all five of their appearances in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets were the National Leauge East champions.
- In three of the five appearances, the Mets won 100+ games with the high water mark coming in 1986 with 108 wins
- In four of the five seasons the Mets appeared in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets had the best record in the National League (1973 is the exception). In two of those seasons (1986 & 2006), the Mets had the best record in baseball.
- In total, the Mets have appeared in five postseason and three World Series. The Mets are 30-20 in those postseason games with the following records per round:
NLDS 3 – 0 NLCS 16 – 12 World Series 11 – 8
If you wish to mainly focus on player performance over how the team has fared during each administration, Mets players have received more awards during Republican leadership:
Cy Young Award
- Republican 4 (Tom Seaver 1969, 1973, & 1975; Dwight Gooden 1985);
- Democrat 1 (R.A. Dickey 2012)
Rookie of the Year
- Republican 3 (Seaver 1967; Jon Matlack 1972; Darryl Strawberry 1983; Gooden 1984)
- Democrat 1 (Jacob deGrom 2014)
Rolaids Relief Man
- Republican 2 (John Franco 1990; Armando Benitez 2001)
- Democrat 0
Sports Illustrated Man of the Year
- Republican 1 (Seaver 1969)
- Democrat 0
Gold Gloves
- Republican 14 (Tommie Agee 1970; Bud Harrelson 1971; Keith Hernandez 1983 – 1988; Ron Darling 1989; Carlos Beltran 2006 – 2008; David Wright 2007 – 2008)
- Democrat 6 (Doug Flynn 1980; Rey Ordonez 1997 – 1999; Robin Ventura 1999; Juan Lagares 2014)
Silver Sluggers
- Republican 14 (Hernandez 1984; Gary Carter 1985 – 1986; Strawberry 1988; Howard Johnson1989 & 1991; Mike Piazza 2001 – 2002; Jose Reyes 2006; Beltran 2006 – 2007; Wright 2007 – 2008)
- Democrat 5 (Piazza 1998 – 2000; Edgardo Alfonzo 1999; Hampton 2000)
Roberto Clemente Award
- Republican 2 (Carter 1989; Carlos Delgado 2006)
- Democrat 2 (Al Leiter 2000; Curtis Granderson 2016)
From the Front Office side, Republicans have a 2-1 edge in executive of the year with Johnny Murphy winning in 1969, Frank Cashen winning in 1986, and Sandy Alderson winning in 2015. Baseball America named the Mets the top organization in baseball once in a Republican (1984) and once in a Democratic (1995) term.
As a general rule of thumb, the Mets and their players have performed better with a Republican in office. As you enter the voting booths today, take that as you will. Hopefully, you have more sound criteria for choosing your candidate.
If you are a diehard Mets fan, or if you are a Mets fan well versed in the history of the team, you know how the Cubs were the Mets first real rival. You know the stories about how Ron Santo clicked his heels taunting the Mets, and you warmly remember the black cat crossing Santo’s path. From there, the Mets overtook the Cubs to win the National League East en route to winning the 1969 World Series.
In 1984, the Cubs obtained Rick Sutcliffe, and the team went on an incredible run to win the National League East over the upstart New York Mets who went from 68 to 90 wins with their first full season with Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry. By the way, it was also the rookie year for phenom Dwight Gooden.
Then there was the NLCS last year that saw Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom dominate a terrific Cubs lineup. We all knew the Cubs were a great team, but the Mets were their kryptonite. As a Mets fan, a large part of you had to wonder if the Cubs even make the World Series if the Mets pitching was healthy.
But the angst goes well beyond that. There was Ben Zobrist as the World Series MVP. Mets fans watched him be a major contributor to a Kansas City Royals team who beat the Mets in the World Series last year. In the offseason, he was seemingly all but assured to join the Mets to replace Daniel Murphy. Instead, literally at the 11th hour, he spurned the Mets, and he signed with the Cubs. Part of you had to wonder how different the 2016 season would have been had Zobrist signed with the Mets.
The Cubs also overcame a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series. The Mets were in the same position last year, and like the Cubs, the Mets had their starting pitching aligned. It all seemed to be going according to plan as Harvey carried a shutout into the ninth inning. As we remember, Terry Collins went against his better instinct, and he sent Harvey out there instead of Jeurys Familia. Harvey allowed a walk and a double to narrow the gap to 2-1. Familia then did his job getting the ground ball to get out of the game only for David Wright to cut off a ball he shouldn’t have played allowing Eric Hosmer an extra jump rounding third. That was important as it gave Hosmer the ability to break for home, and he scored with Lucas Duda making the worst throw of his life.
Watching the 10th inning reminded me of that 12th inning game of that ill fated Game 5. Watching a cold and tired Joe Shaw helplessly trying to get out of the jam reminded me of an overworked and tired Addison Reed getting hit left and right by the Royals in what was a devastating seven run inning.
In many respects, as a Mets fan it was tough to watch. It was even tougher to watch when you consider Theo Epstein got his Cubs team to win the World Series before the Mets could win one despite Sandy Alderson having been on the job a year longer than Epstein. It is all the more frustrating when you consider the Cubs beat out the Mets for Zobrist, and the Cubs spent a lot of money in the past offseason.
The one solace to take out of all of this is the fact that the Mets are built to win not just next year, but in the ensuing years. And yes, the Mets are built to contend with or without Yoenis Cespedes. Not only do the Mets have the pitching, but they also have players like Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario on the way. There is still hope for Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud to rebound in 2017 to recapture their 2015 form. Duda can put together a healthy contract year season. There is still a lot of hope for the Mets to be World Series contenders the next couple of seasons. There are also the seeds for a real rivalry between the Mets and the Cubs over the next few seasons.
However, as of right now, all that is left behind is a World Series victory for the Cubs, and the Mets wondering both “what if” and “how do we get back there.” That is what stings most of all.
One of the best things about being a parent is you get the opportunity to remedy the perceived wrongs from your childhood. No matter how small or childish they may seem, we all have ones that linger. One of my lingering issues was my parents not going out and getting the Halloween Pail Happy Meals when my brother and I were children.
You see the Mets winning the World Series wasn’t the only major event of October 1986. I’ve never confirmed this, but I’m pretty sure Mookie Wilson got one of these for his stepson and nephew Preston Wilson. Much like the Mets hopes of winning the World Series the following year, my hopes of getting a McDonald’s Halloween Pail were dashed in 1987. My chances of obtaining one in 1989 were as much as nonstarter as the Mets chances were that year. In 1990, Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter were closer to New York than I was to getting my Halloween Pail. In 1992, there were no hopes for me or the Mets. From there, the Halloween Pails all but disappeared.
That was up until last year when the Halloween Pails re-emerged. Despite Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard not being alive in 1986, these trio of arms led the Mets to the World Series in the same year the Halloween Pails returned. Never underestimate the power of the pails. Like the good Mets fan and father (or petulant child) that I am, I made sure to get all four of them for my son who really had no clue who the Minions were or why he needed four of these pails. That changes this year.
My son loves Peanuts. He has loved them since we took him to see The Peanuts Movie, his first ever movie, for his birthday last year, and since he saw A Charlie Brown Christmas last year. Like any child, he loves Charlie Brown, Snoopy, and the whole Peanuts gang:
With that, we have now found the intersection where my son’s love of Peanuts and my need to get these Halloween Pails have met in the parenting Venn diagram. With that, I have checked one thing off my parenting bucket list, and I will now seek out curing other perceived wrongs like never getting the chance to attend a Mets World Series victory parade. I guess that one will just have to wait until next year.
To ensure that will happen, I think McDonalds will need to roll out an Avengers Halloween Pail featuring Thor, Captain America (David Wright), Iron Man (Steven Matz), and The Incredible Hulk (Lucas Duda).
By the way, the Great Pumpkin is on tonight:
It's the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown airs tonight on @ABCNetwork at 8/7c! pic.twitter.com/e9UOr3mua6
— PEANUTS (@Snoopy) October 19, 2016
No matter how you look at it, the Jay Bruce acquisition has been a disaster for the Mets. In 40 games, Bruce has hit .176/.255/.289 with only four doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI. Bruce has gone from the major league leader in RBI to tied for 30th in the majors and 10th in the National League. He went from hitting .360 with runners in scoring position to .172 with the Mets.
Yesterday was rock bottom for him. He got mixed up with Curtis Granderson on a catchable flyball that lead to a Matt Kemp RBI single instead of a an out with Bruce having a chance to throw the runner out at home. At the plate, Bruce was 0-3. Worse yet, when the Mets were rallying to try the game, Terry Collins pinch hit Eric Campbell for him when the Braves brought in the lefty Ian Kroll to face him. Bruce was brought to the Mets just for these RBI situations. However, it has now gotten to the point that no one trusts him in those spots.
Bruce’s struggles have led some to suggest the Mets should decline Bruce’s $13 million option and give him his $1 million buy out. If the Mets were to do that, it would be a very poor decision.
Over his career, Bruce is a .247/.317/.465 hitter who averages 26 homers and 81 RBI. With Bruce turning 30 years old next year, there is every reason to believe Bruce’s struggles with the Mets are the result of a player struggling when joining a new team more than it is a Jason Bay falling apart when signing the Mets and playing his games under the old outfield configurations of Citi Field. So yes, there is reason to believe Bruce will return to form next season whether or not he is wearing a Mets uniform.
Admittedly, the Mets are going to have a glut of outfielders next year. Curtis Granderson is under contract for another year. The Mets figure to give Michael Conforto an everyday job next year. Juan Lagares should be healthy and could form a center field platoon with Brandon Nimmo. Furthermore, Justin Ruggiano, who mashed lefties in the short time he was with the Mets, is arbitration eligible. In addition to that, the Mets should do all they can to bring back Yoenis Cespedes in the even he opts out of his contract. Looking over this list, it’s hard to find a spot for Bruce in the Mets outfield.
The Mets could shift Bruce to first base. However, Lucas Duda, who has been a much better offensive player than Bruce, is still under team control. Additionally, with the overcrowded outfield, it is possible the Mets will seek to move Conforto to first base as has been recommended by Keith Hernandez. Overall, no matter where you look, there may not be room for Bruce. With that in mind, why pick up his option?
The reason is Bruce is an asset in what is going to be a weak free agent class. After Cespedes, the best free agent outfielders will be Ian Desmond, Mark Trumbo, and Jose Bautista. Each of these free agents have their own issues.
Desmond was a surprising All Star outfielder after struggling last year with the Nationals. However, overlooking his stats, Desmond has a number of issues. First, he is hitting .239/.287/.362 in the second half. Second, he’s showing himself to be a platoon bat hitting .272/.329/.442 against righties and .338/.373/.507 against lefties. Lastly, Desmond appears to be a product of Globe Life Park hitting .336/.374/.516 at home and .244/.309/.405 on the road.
Trumbo is essentially Bruce with vastly inferior defense. He also has the same issues as Desmond. He’s hitting .188/.266/.431 in the second half. He’s hitting .183/.232/.415 against lefties. He’s also hitting .257/.337/.552 at Camden Yards and .242/.282/.498 on the road.
Bautista is a 35 year old outfielder who has taken a step back this season. Over his last six seasons with the Blue Jays, he played at a superstar level hitting .268/.390/.555 while averaging 38 homers and 97 RBI. This year he is only hitting .258/.359/.433 with only 18 homers and 59 RBI.
Another team could look at these options and determine they would rather obtain Bruce who should have similar production at a reasonable $13 million price tag. Teams may also prefer to keep their first round pick rather than give it up for Desmond, Trumbo, or Bautista. Additionally, if Bruce bounces back from his struggles with the Mets, the acquiring team could make him a qualifying offer allowing them to obtain a compensatory first round pick in the event Bruce leaves them next offseason.
There’s the other issue. Cespedes is far from a lock to return. In that scenario, the Mets may feel compelled to find a player who can put up the power numbers Cespedes does. Like it or not, the Mets only real opportunity to replace Cespedes’ bat in the lineup will be a Bruce caliber bat. With Bruce most likely being the cheapest option as well as the option that doesn’t require the Mets to forfeit a first round pick, he is probably the Mets best Cespedes replacement (NOTE: no one can truly replace Cespedes).
So yes, Bruce has been a terrible with the Mets. However, that shouldn’t prevent the Mets from picking up his option as he is going to have value for someone next year. Just cross your fingers that team won’t be the Mets.