Josh Smoker
This year marks the seventh year Terry Collins has been the Mets manager. In those seven years, he has left a wake of horrible decisions and the careers of some players, namely Scott Rice and Jim Henderson.
Collins seems to be in rare form in what he had previously said was going to be his last before retirement. Already this year, he has made some poor and dangerous decisions.
Now, some like starting Jay Bruce over Michael Conforto is an organizational decision. Some decisions are designed to give players a mental and physical day of rest, and they should not be over-analyzed. However, many others, as you’ll see below, fall under the purview of Collins poor managing:
Opening Day – 4/3
Mets 6 – Braves 0
Collins sets out a lineup that makes little sense including batting his second worse OBP guy in Jose Reyes lead-off. He also made a strategical blunder hitting Bruce ahead of Lucas Duda. The issues there are more detailed here.
After Noah Syndergaard left the game with a blister, Collins turned to fifth starter Robert Gsellman for an inning in a 6-0 blowout instead of Rafael Montero, who could have benefited from a pressure free outing to build his confidence.
April 5th
Braves 3 – Mets 1
It’s not Collins’ fault the bullpen blew the lead, and he had to rip through his pen in an extra inning game. However, going to Montero over Josh Smoker was a poor decision. Smoker is just a one inning pitcher. He can’t be the last guy up. Also, he’s better than Montero, and as such, he shouldn’t pitched first.
Also, in extras, Collins turned to Ty Kelly over T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores with two outs and the winning run on second. In 2016, Kelly hit .179 off right-handed pitching to Flores’ .232 and Rivera’s .386. Another factor is with Conforto already having pinch hit, Kelly was the last OF on the bench.
April 6th
Mets 6 – Braves 2
No issues.
April 7th
Marlins 7 – Mets 2
You could argue Collins should’ve lifted Zack Wheeler before the fourth as he labored in ever inning except the first, but focusing too much on this may be picking nits at this point. What was really peculiar was it was obvious the Mets were going to need someone to soak up innings with Wheeler’s short outing. Last year, Smoker proved he is not a multiple inning reliever. Despite that being the case, Collins turned to Smoker over Montero or Hansel Robles, who are two pitchers that can go deep in relief. These are the types of decisions that exhaust bullpens.
April 8th
Marlins 8 – Mets 1
With Gsellman going five, Collins had to go deeper in the pen that he would’ve liked. He went too deep when he brought in Montero. The previous day Montero threw 35 pitches over 2.2 innings. On Wednesday, Montero threw 35 pitches over 1.2 innings. That’s 70 pitches over 4.2 innings without much rest. Montero struggled leading Collins to bring in Fernando Salas who has now appeared in four of the Mets five games himself.
April 9th
Mets 5 – Marlins 2
No issues.
April 10th
Mets 4 – Phillies 3
In the top of the seventh with the score tied at two, Collins put Conforto in the on deck circle, and the Phillies countered by having Joely Rodriguez warm-up. By Collins tipping his hand a bit, he was forced to make the choice of Conforto against the left-handed pitcher or to go with one of his right-handed bench options to pinch hit for Jacob deGrom.
Now, there is a lot of small sample size bias, but Collins options where Conforto (.129/.191/.145 vs. LHP), Flores (.252/.286/.372 vs. RHP), and Rivera (.386/.397/.600 vs. RHP). Again, there are small sample sizes, but based upon the information you would say your best bet is Rivera against Jerad Eickhoff. Instead, Collins went with Flores, who flew out to end the inning and the rally.
One other small note. Based upon the relative production of the Mets players, putting Bruce in the clean-up spot was a defensible and probably the smart move. It’s more than just production, Bruce just looks better at the plate than anyone in the lineup right now. However, according to Collins, Bruce was moved up in the lineup because he was hot. Of course, Bruce wasn’t as he was in the midst of a 2-14 streak.
It’s a problem when the manager is making a move predicated on a faulty premise. It does not matter if it was the right move or it worked out. The problem is the reasoning behind it was flawed.
April 11th
Mets 14 – Phillies 4
No issues.
April 12th
Mets 5 – Phillies 4
To be fair, the following isn’t necessarily a critique of Collins. It really is a critique of most baseball managers. With the Mets up 5-0, and Zack Wheeler loading the bases, Collins summoned Hansel Robles to the mound. While Gary and Ron Darling were harping on it being his third consecutive game, he had only pitched two innings and threw just 20 pitches in that stretch. It’s really difficult to infer Robles was tired.
Rather, the issue is why don’t you use Fernando Salas in that spot? He’s well rested, and he’s arguably your second best reliever right now. This really was the biggest out of the game. The Mets get the out here, and they go to the seventh up 5-0. From there, you can go with some of your lesser arms to close out the game.
Instead, Collins went with his best reliever that wasn’t his 7th, 8th, or 9th inning guy. This is what every manager does in this spot, so this is not unique to Collins. Another point to be made here is Collins going to Robles is justifiable as Robles is a good relief pitcher, and he has bailed the Mets out of similar situations in the past. Again, this is more of a critique of major league managers as a whole than just Collins.
April 13th
Mets 9 – Marlins 8 (16)
Well, this was a long game leaving Collins to make a lot of curious moves that helped lead to this being a 16 inning game that exhausted the Mets bullpen.
Despite the Mets facing a left-handed pitcher in Wei-Yin Chen, the Mets playing a large outfield, and the Mets rushing him back from the disabled list, Juan Lagares was not in the starting lineup.
After four innings, Collins lifted T.J. Rivera from the game for no reason at all. There were no injury issues or defensive problems. This move indirectly led to Rene Rivera playing first base in extra innings and Jacob deGrom having to make a pinch hitting appearance.
In the fifth, despite Gsellman not having anything, Collins pushed him, and the results were terrible. Collins then turned to his worst reliever in Josh Edgin to help Gsellman get out of the jam. The end result was the Marlins not only erasing a three run deficit, but also taking an 8-7 lead.
The Mets tied it and the game went 16 innings. Over the course of those innings, the bullpen was absolutely exhausted which will have far reaching implications in the short and long term.
April 14th
Marlins 3 – Mets 2
To be fair, after a 16 inning game, the Mets did not have a lot of options available in the bullpen. However, it is puzzling why Collins would go with Edgin, who has struggled most of the season, over a fully rested Sean Gilmartin who was brought up for the sole purpose of helping the bullpen. Putting Edgin in for two innings essentially conceded the game. That’s effectively what happened.
April 15th
Marlins 5 – Mets 4
After ONE decent game this season, Collins just rushed ahead and put Reyes back in the lead-off spot. In response, Reyes was 0-3 with a walk. It didn’t prevent the Mets from taking a lead, but again, it shows Collins’ poor though process.
In the eighth, the Mets had Jerry Blevins warming in bullpen when Christian Yelich walked to the plate. Now, you can argue that Salas is the eighth inning reliever until Jeurys Familia returns, and this is his spot. However, when you have Blevins warming up, you have him pitch to the left-handed batter in key situtations. Instead, Salas allowed a game tying home run followed by a go-ahead home run to Giancarlo Stanton.
April 16th
Marlins 4 – Mets 2
No issues.
April 18th
Phillies 6 – Mets 2 (10)
For most of the game, it appeared as if Collins was managing a pretty good game. The most egregious error was batting d’Arnaud behind Reyes, who can’t hit right now, and Walker, who can’t hit as a left-handed batter right now. However, you can excuse that when you consider Collins has to manage a clubhouse and respect veterans.
I’d go so far as to argue Collins deftly managed the bullpen last night. That was until the 10th inning. With a fully rested Sean Gilmartin and a Montero who seemingly gets worse with each and every outing, you simply cannot go to Montero in that spot. It is essentially waiving a white flag. And you know what, that’s exactly what Collins did.
The Phillies quickly had runners on first and second because, well, Montero was pitching. You’re in the 10th inning, and the Mets have no hit at all in the game, you absolutely have to bring your infield in. For some reason, Collins didn’t. It would up not mattering because Montero allowed a sacrifice to the deepest part of right field, but still, how do you not bring your infield in in that spot? It’s an egregious error perhaps more egregious than the Reyes one that lead to the game going into extra innings.
April 19th
Mets 5 – Phillies 4
You could argue that Reyes hitting seventh in front of d’Arnaud is a pressing issue, or his presence in the lineup might be one as well. However, you have to consider Collins has to manage personalities in that clubhouse, and he has to at least consider the impact batting Reyes eighth may have. Right now, this is an area where Collins should get some latitude.
Another thing to note, keeping Gsellman in to bunt and pitch to the first batter in the eighth was a defensible move. The bench was short with Duda and d’Arnaud coming out of the game due to injury. Also, the bullpen has been overworked. Even saving them from having to get one batter is a help right now.
Accordingly, there were no issues with last night’s game.
April 20th
Phillies 6 – Mets 4
People want to harp on Familia throwing 30 pitches in the ninth, but the bullpen has been exhausted, and the Mets really didn’t give him work in the minors. There were no issues with this game.
April 21st
Nationals 4 – Mets 3 (11)
Collins was extremely limited because of the injuries, and yet, he still managed to work a way around that excuse. In the ninth, Collins used Gsellman to pinch run for Rene Rivera. With Lagares in the game already due to the Cespedes’ injury, Collins had to go to his pitchers for pinch running and pinch hitting opportunities, so this was certainly understandable. What happened after wasn’t.
First and foremost, Collins asked T.J. Rivera to lay down a bunt. Now, analytical people would say this was the wrong move because the sacrifice bunt in that situation actually decreases the chances of your scoring. They’re right, but there’s more to that. Behind Rivera is the pitcher’s spot meaning you are going to have to have one of your players too injured to start the game enter as a pinch hitter. That player was Cabrera.
Cabrera worked out a walk. Once his foot touched second, Kevin Plawecki was already coming into the game as a pinch runner. Why Collins just didn’t put Plawecki, the more experienced base runner, in for Rivera is certainly questionable. There’s another matter to consider. Plawecki was the last player on the bench who could play the field. This meant that if the Mets didn’t score here, the pitcher’s spot in the order was going to come up sooner. This meant that d’Arnaud had to pinch hit in the bottom of the 11th.
It should be noted d’Arnaud was so injured he couldn’t start the game. It should also be noted when the game was tied in the seventh, Collins had turned to Wheeler to pinch hit. There’s not congruent thought that can come from all of this.
April 22nd
Nationals 3 – Mets 1
Collins playing Cabrera in this game was a poor decision. Cabrera was so hobbled the night before he couldn’t run the bases. In this game, you saw why. He was clearly hobbled and had even more difficulty getting around than he usually does. He was noticeably in pain, and he was playing on a slick field. There was an incident in the fifth inning where he tried to leg out an infield single, and it looked like he was going to need help to get off the field. Cabrera would come out to take his position just before the beginning of the next half inning.
April 23rd
Nationals 6 – Mets 3
Other than a clearly hobbled and limited Cabrera playing again, no issues.
April 26th
Braves 8 – Mets 2
There were two off days due to the rainout, but Collins having Salas warm up on multiple occasions was a poor decision. It is bad enough Salas is on pace for over 100 appearances. It is worse when he warms up multiple times a game. After having warmed up multiple times, Salas came in and pitched poorly again allowing two earned run in his inning of work.
April 27th
Braves 7 – Mets 5
We’ve all seen the video by now. Cespedes was hobbled and wincing while taking batting practice. If he’s a bench player or the most important player on the team, you cannot put a compromised player in the lineup. You are only asking for whatever injury is there to be exacerbated. That’s exactly what happened. On Cespedes’ fourth inning double, he pulled up to second base lame. He had to be helped off the field. Instead of him sitting out a day game after a night game, now he is sure to miss a lot of time. Sandy Alderson deserves his fair share of blame for allowing the decision to happen. Collins may deserve more after his post game meltdown where he effectively stated he won’t second guess the decision to not put Cespedes on the disabled list.
In his opinion, if you put every injured player on the disabled list, you’ll run out of people to play. Of course, it doesn’t work that way. If you put injured people on the disabled list, you can call up healthy players to play. Instead, the Mets keep injured players on the team who can’t even pinch hit. Then, when they get in a game, they get injured more meaning they’re out for a longer period of time. It is really disconcerting that this needs to be explained.
The real gem from Collins was Cespedes did all he needed to do to get into the lineup. Really? He couldn’t even take batting practice without complication. What did he need to do? Put on the correct hat and jersey combination for that game?
By the way, since Cespedes’ injury, he’s played 13 innings. Lets see how many more he plays in the first half of the season after he was helped off the field.
For those that bemoan a day and age where men where men and starters went all nine innings today wasn’t for you.
Robert Gsellman got the start, and he fought it all night long. The Marlins took advantage scoring runs in three consecutive innings.
In the first, Giancarlo Stanton hit a two out RBI single scoring Miguel Rojas, who had reached on a double.
In the second, Marcell Ozuna absolutely crushed one:
How to define "crushed." ?
?: https://t.co/xhLiqTLCko#LetsGoFish pic.twitter.com/zlrWm5mVyt
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) April 8, 2017
Leading off the third, Curtis Granderson misplayed a J.T. Realmuto liner into a triple. Really to scored on a Rojas sacrifice fly.
Gsellman finally had a scoreless inning in the fourth, and he appeared to have found himself. He appeared to be settling in a bit. He then struggled in the fifth.
Quickly, it was runners on the corners with one out. In what may be prove to be a building block for the season, Gsellman got out of the inning. First, Gsellman got Justin Bour to ground out weakly to Wilmer Flores freezing the runner at third. Gsellman then got out of the inning by striking out Ozuna with a beautiful change-up.
It was a professional start from Gsellman. He fought it all game long, but he kept his team in the game. His final line was five innings, six hits, three runs, three earned, two walks, and seven strikeouts. He departed down 3-0 after throwing 91 pitches.
While Gsellman kept his team in the game, it wasn’t enough as this Mets team is already showing their warts offensively. Worse yet, the Mets were facing Adam Conley, who absolutely owns the Mets:
In 2 starts at Citi Field, Conley has a 0.00 ERA, 0.615 WHIP, 10.4 K/9. In 5 games against the Mets 1-0, 1.11 ERA, 0.863 WHIP, 8.1 K/9
— Mets Daddy (@MetsDaddy2013) April 8, 2017
It was more of the same from Conley tonight who carried a no-hitter into the fifth. Finally, his no-hitter and his Citi Field scoreless streak was broken up by Lucas Duda:
Watch it fly! #LGM pic.twitter.com/DvVLuywFu6
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 9, 2017
Duda has typically struggled against left-handed pitchers in his career with the exception of 2015. In that season, Duda stayed in and went the other way against lefties. The end result was Duda hitting .285/.333/.545 off left-handed pitching. So far this season, we’re seeing that Duda. He already has two extra-base hits off left-handed pitching and both hits went to left-center.
For some reason, the Marlins pulled Conley after he only threw 85 pitches. There was hope the Mets could get into the Marlins bullpen, but the Duda home run would be as close as the Mets got on the night.
Hansel Robles struggled again walking two and allowing a RBI single to Ozuna making it 4-1.
Paul Sewald made his major league debut in the eighth. The Las Vegas native fittingly wore the number 51.
Unfortunately, Sewald struggled. The Marlins greeted him with three straight singles. When he finally recorded an out, it was a safety squeeze that scored a run. The damage wasn’t worse as Jerry Blevins came on in relief and bailed him out.
Just to rub salt into the wound that was this game, Christian Yelich robbed Yoenis Cespedes of an extra base hit in the ninth. As usual, all the great catches are against the Mets.
In the ninth, Collins turned to Rafael Montero which was absurd and potentially dangerous. Yesterday, Montero threw 35 pitches over 2.2 innings. On Wednesday, Montero threw 35 pitches over 1.2 innings. That’s 70 pitches over 4.2 innings without much rest.
This is shades of Jim Henderson. Henderson was no longer the same pitcher after Collins’ reckless use if him, and Henderson couldn’t get a roster spot with a major league team this year. Collins showed he learned nothing from the event.
Naturally, it didn’t go well for Montero. Now, Montero attacked hitters, but he was a tired pitcher with nothing. It was a shame his manager put him in that position. His allowed three hits and two runs before Fernando Salas got the Mets out of the inning without further damage.
By that point, it didn’t really matter anyway. It was 8-1, which was the final score.
It is difficult picking who had the worst night, but it might have been Neil Walker who earned his first career golden sombrero. He’s now 3-20 on the season.
With the loss, the Mets snap their streak of beating the Marlins in five straight series. Instead of winning a series, the Mets now need to win two in a row just to earn a split. Fortunately, the Mets have Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom the next two nights.
Game Notes: The Phillies jumped all over Jeremy Guthrie and the Nationals scoring 12 first inning runs. Those 12 runs match the amount of runs the Mets have scored all season. Granderson lead off as Jose Reyes started the game on the bench. He was double switched into the game in the sixth. He went 0-1, and he’s 1-19 on the season. Josh Smoker rebounded after yesterday’s tough outing by pitching a scoreless sixth. Asdrubal Cabrera is dealing with a wrist injury.
After Matt Harvey‘s terrific start last night, most Mets fans were a little more optimistic about Zack Wheeler‘s first start after missing two years due to his Tommy John surgery.
That optimism crew to a crescendo after Wheeler’s first inning of work. He was getting it up to 98 MPH. He struck out A.J. Ellis and Christian Yelich to end the inning.
Wheeler got his lead in the bottom of the first when Curtis Granderson got a two out RBI single off Marlis starter Wei-Yin Chen to score Asdrubal Cabrera. It was already Granderson’s second two out hit with RISP this season. He had four all of last year.
At this point, the Mets were looking good. It was too soon to say the Mets were in control, but based on the first inning, confidence was building.
Unfortunately, Wheeler would struggle the rest of the game. In the second, Derek Dietrich hit a two run triple giving the Marlins the lead. He later scored on an Adeiny Hechavarria RBI groundout.
The third inning saw Yelich hit a two run homer off the right field could pole increasing the Marlins lead to 5-1. Dating back to last season, Yelich has homered in his last four games at Citi Field.
By the end of the fourth, Wheeler threw 80 pitches, and he was done for the night. His final line was four innings, six hits, five runs, five earned, one walk, and four strikeouts.
There were plenty of reasons for the struggles; the least of which was Wheeler hasn’t pitched in over two years. It was a cold and very windy night. The outfielders were fighting every fly ball. Wheeler couldn’t get an off speed pitch over the plate. He seemed to lose his velocity after the first inning. Another factor was he was supposed to be in Extended Spring Training to work on these things.
Still, there were some positive signs for Wheeler, and it is something he can build upon.
Unfortunately, the same thing can’t be said for Josh Smoker who really struggled when he took over for Wheeler in the fifth. By the way, this was the spot for Montero because you’re looking for your long man, but that’s Terry for you.
Smoker was first done in as Yoenis Cespedes misread a ball hit by Yelich. Smoker followed that by issuing back-to-back walks to Giancarlo Stanton and Justin Bour. Marcell Ozuna and Dietrich followed with RBI singles. After throwing 27 pitches, Smoker was done leaving the bases loaded with one out.
Surprisingly, Rafael Montero bailed out Smoker by getting Hechavarria to ground into the 1-2-3 double play.
If you’re looking for a bright spot on the night, it was definitely Montero. Montero came in and attacked the Marlins hitters. Overall, he pitched 2.2 innings yielding just one hit and two walks while striking out two. This was an important outing for both him and the Mets. He needed this outing considering his previous outing, Wheeler’s struggles, and the injuries to Seth Lugo and Steven Matz.
The Mets had a chance to get back in the game with Granderson and Neil Walker hitting consecutive one out singles. Jay Bruce ended the rally grounding into the inning ending 6-4-3 double play.
It was just one of those nights. Simply put when Montero and Josh Edgin are your best pitchers, it’s not going to be a good night. To be fair, Montero and Edgin were quite good. Offensively, the only highlight was Granderson who was 2-4 with an RBI.
Well, that and Cespedes homered in the eighth. It was his first of the year.
.@ynscspds crushes his first homer of the year!
7-2 Miami | Bot-8 pic.twitter.com/gJQmOM9UTp
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 8, 2017
This game was the epitome of “you can’t win ’em all.” The game was so bad, GKR was flipping through baseball cards and discussing pizza toppings. Mets just need to forget about this 7-2 loss and get ready for tomorrow night’s game.
Game Notes: Jose Reyes went 0-5 tonight putting him at 1-18 on the year. Still, it was Lucas Duda who sat in favor of Wilmer Flores. Rene Rivera started in place of Travis d’Arnaud because Terry perceived Rivera and Wheeler worked well together and to combat the Marlins running game. Wheeler allowed five runs over four innings, and Dee Gordon stole a base.
With today being Valentine’s Day, it is only right we get into the spirit of things by being as clever as Bobby Valentine was the time he used eye black to make a fake mustache. Without further ado, here are some “clever” Mets themed Valentine’s Day lines you may see on one of those cards you used to pass out to your classmates in grammar school:
Jerry Blevins – Jerry? Hello! Be my Valentine
Josh Edgin – I’m Edgin my way closer to you.
Jeurys Familia – I want to become Familia with your sexy self.
Matt Harvey – If you thought 50 Shades of Grey was seductive, wait until you see the Dark Knight I have in store for you.
Seth Lugo – Lugo you want to get with this.
Rafael Montero – You might as well be my Valentine because we both know there’s not getting rid of me not matter how awful I am.
Addison Reed – You and Me Addison up to a great Valentine’s Day
Hansel Robles – You’re so hot right now
Fernando Salas – If I had to the same again, I would, my Valentine, Fernando
Josh Smoker – You’re so hot, I can see the Smoker from miles away
Noah Syndergaard – Can you handle this god’s thunder?
Yoenis Cespedes – There’s a lot of Potencia between you and I Valentine
Travis d’Arnaud – d’Arnaud it pains me to be apart from you
Lucas Duda – Duda right thing and be my Valentine
Wilmer Flores – I’ll cry if you put me in the Friends zone
Amed Rosario – Don’t Be Surprised Be Ready
Neil Walker – I would Walker 5,000 miles to be your Valentine
David Wright – It’s only Wright we would be Valentines
Jay Bruce – Let me be the Valentine you regret for years to come.
Michael Conforto – It’s a Conforto to know whether in NY or Vegas we’re Valentines
Curtis Granderson – It’s Grandy being your Valentine
Juan Lagares – You’re the only Juan for me
Brandon Nimmo – Nimmo I’m smiling because of you.
Ron Darling – Be my Darling this Valentine’s Day
Keith Hernandez – I mustache you to be my Valentine’s Day OR How about a Valentine’s Day mustache ride?
Happy Valentine’s Day
Lets start with the caveat that the non-elite closer bullpen market has yet to fully materialize. Once Kenley Jansen picks his team, it appears as if the market for the next tier of relievers, which includes possible Mets targets in Brad Ziegler and Koji Uehara, will begin to emerge. It is also possible the Mets could trade Jay Bruce or some other players for bullpen help.
With those caveats in mind, there are two issues confronting the Mets bullpen. The first is that many relievers who could help the Mets in 2017 may move out of their price range, especially with Sandy Alderson announcing the team has to reduce its current payroll. The other obvious issue is the Mets have to somehow contend with the possibility that Jeurys Familia may be gone for a significant portion of the season. With that in mind, the Mets may very well have to look internally to fill one or more of the holes in their bullpen.
This begs the question about whether they can do it. Here is a look at some of the options for the 2017 season to determine whether or not the Mets current bullpen issues can be solved internally:
2016 MLB Stats: 1-0, 5.23 ERA, 16 G, 10.1 IP, 1.548 WHIP, 9.6 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 2-2, 3.11 ERA, 43 G, 37.2 IP, 1.540 WHIP, 10.8 K/9
In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, the biggest thing that stuck out for Edgin was his loss of velocity. Once, Edgin was a reliever who came out of the bullpen throwing 94 MPH. In 2016, Edgin loss three MPH off his fastball, and as a result, he went from limiting right-handed batters to a .219/.286/.250 batting line in his breakout 2014 season to a .300/.400/.500 batting line in 2016.
It should be noted the numbers from the 2014 and 2016 seasons are both relatively small sample sizes. Additionally, Edgin continued to pitch well against left-handed batters in 2016 limiting them to a .235/.300/.235 batting line. With that Edgin proved he can still be an effective LOOGY out of the pen even with this reduced velocity. If Edgin were to regain that velocity, he can fully take over the role left vacated by Jerry Blevins.
2016 MLB Stats: 0-1, 7.13 ERA, 14 G, GS, 17.2 IP, 1.585 WHIP, 5.6 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 9-7, 4.86 ERA, 19 G, 18 GS, 107.1 IP, 1.425 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
Despite Gilmartin being an important part of the Mets 2015 bullpen, the team decided it was better for him to work on being a starting pitcher in AAA rather than him reprising his role as the long man in the bullpen. While he started out well for the 51s, he would eventually begin to suffer some shoulder discomfort, which required a stint on the disabled list, and his stats would suffer from there. It probably didn’t help that the Mets expected him to take cross-country flights and make multiple inning appearances out of the bullpen with three days of rest or less. Ultimately, we have seen Gilmartin be successful in the major leagues out of the bullpen, and accordingly, we should not discount the possibility he will be successful out of the bulllpen again in 2017.
2016 MLB Stats: 5-2, 2.67 ERA, 17 G, 8 GS, 64.0 IP, 1.094 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 3-4, 6.50, 21 G, 14 GS, 73.1 IP, 1.677 WHIP, 7.6 K/9
After Lugo struggled in AAA, he was taken out of the rotation, and he was put in the bullpen. For a guy that can max out his fastball over 95 MPH and has a terrific curveball, it seemed like the best place for him in a Mets organization with plenty of pitching depth. When he first came up to the majors and made Anthony Rizzo look foolish with his curveball, it seemed like Lugo had a home in the bullpen.
However, with the starting pitching injuries mounting, Lugo was thrust into the rotation. With a postseason berth on the line, he combined with fellow rookie Robert Gsellman to pitch extremely well. It is now debatable as to whether or not the bullpen is the best use of Lugo’s talents. It is all the more debatable when you consider the Mets rotation has some injury concerns and is likely going to deal with some innings limits. With that in mind, while Lugo has certainly proven himself to be an effective reliever, he may be best suited to either the fifth spot in the rotation, or starting the year in the AAA rotation and being ready for the first opportunity that arises.
2016 MiLB Stats: 5-3, 3.29 ERA, 56 G, 19 SV, 65.2 IP, 1.203 WHIP, 11.0 K/9
With Sewald not being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, he is now a possibility to be a part of the Mets bullpen in 2017. The issue with Sewald is his stuff is not that impressive with him only topping out in the low 90s with his fastball. However, that overlooks the fact that he has a good slider which he uses as an out pitch, and the fact he rarely walks batters. In his minor league career, he has only walked 59 batters in 258.0 innings pitched.
Another factor to consider is how well he pitched in the Pacific Coast League, which is a hitter’s haven. In the second half of the season, Sewald made 20 appearances going 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA, 10 saves, 0.95 WHIP, and an 11.8 K/9. In looking over his entire minor league career, Sewald has rarely walked batters, has struck out over 10 batters per nine, has had low ERAs, and has consistently been a good closer. With his experience, talent, and the Mets catchers excellent pitch framing, there is every reason to believe Sewald has a legitimate chance to be a good reliever in the major leagues.
2016 MLB Stats: 3-0, 4.70 ERA, 20 G, 15.1 IP, 1.304 WHIP, 14.7 K/9
2016 MiLB Stats: 3-2, 4.11 ERA, 52 G, 57.0 IP, 1.474 WHIP, 12.8 K/9
The Smoker we saw with the Mets was essentially the Smoker that we have seen in his minor league career. Smoker is a one inning reliever who strikes out a lot of batters, but he has reverse splits. Whereas Edgin is a LOOGY, Smoker is somehow a left-handed ROOGY that gets tattooed by left-handed hitting. Another issue for Smoker is he is only good for one inning. Every single outing he was asked to go over one inning by the Mets, he allowed a home run.
Still, there is a place for a pitcher like Smoker in the bullpen. His ability to generate strikeouts at a level as high as he does is rare, and it is very valuable.
2014 Stats: 11-11, 3.54 ERA, 32 G, 32 GS, CG, SHO, 185.1 IP, 1.327 WHIP, 9.1 K/9
With Wheeler missing two seasons, the Mets have already bandied the idea of putting Wheeler and his 96 MPH fastball in the bullpen. On the one hand, it seems like it is a good opportunity for Wheeler to get back to pitching to major league batters while keeping his inning down after missing the past two seasons while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
There are some issues with Wheeler in the bullpen. The first is he has a tendency to lose the strike zone which is a huge problem for short inning relievers. The second is, as we saw with Jim Henderson, Terry Collins has a tendency to overlook his relievers injury issues and overwork them anyway. The third and final issue is what type of reliever will he be? Is he going to be a multi-inning reliever who will be shut down for a couple of days afterwards, or is he going to be a one inning reliever expected to air it out for one inning.
The answer to that and many other questions will be resolved once the Mets ultimately decide what Wheeler is. Is he someone that can rejoin the rotation, or is he someone forever slated to the bulllpen? At this point, it is hard to know the answer.
Overall, the Mets have plenty of internal options to fill-out their bullpen. Indeed, if they were to use only internal options, it is possible the Mets could build themselves a very good bullpen. However, if the Mets were to purely stick with internal options, it remains possible the Mets may expose their starting rotation by not having pitchers like Gilmartin, Lugo, or Wheeler sufficiently stretched out to start.
Ulimately, the Mets would be wise to use some of their internal options to help build their bullpen in 2017. With that said, the team is still going to need to obtain one or two relievers before the end of the offseason.
Every Mets fan was elated the Mets signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four year $110 million contract. With that contract on the heels of Neil Walker accepting the $17.2 million qualifying offer, it appeared as if the Mets were finally out from under the Madoff disaster, and they were ready to spend like the big market team they were. Turns out we were wrong . . . very wrong.
As the Winter Meetings come to a close, Sandy Alderson met with reporters, and he informed them that the Mets are not only done spending, they actually need to shed payroll before Opening Day.
That’s right. Alderson expects the Mets to be below $150 million before Opening Day. According to Spotrac, a payroll under $150 million would put the Mets in bottom half of payroll in the major leauges. Worse yet, reducing the payroll would actually mean the Mets 2017 payroll will be lower than the Mets year-end 2016 payroll. The payroll will be lower despite the Mets coming off back-to-back postseason appearances, the Mets having twice increased ticket prices, and attendance having gone up each year since 2013. With increased revenues, there is no reason for the Mets to reduce payroll.
Now, payroll isn’t everything. As we saw in 2015, it is possible to compete without having one of the top payrolls in the majors. Ultimately, it is not payroll that wins, it’s talent. Looking over the Mets major league roster, the team still does not have everything it needs to win in 2017.
First and foremost, the bullpen is in disarray. The Mets are likely to lose Jerry Blevins to free agency, and it is likely the team will lose Fernando Salas. Right there, the Mets need to obtain another LOOGY unless you believe Josh Edgin will suddenly find his lost velocity or Josh Smoker‘s entire career of reverse splits will suddenly reverse itself. Morevover, the Mets will need a seventh inning reliever, which is something the team has seemingly always needed in the Sandy Alderson Era. Further compounding the issue is the prospect of a lengthy Jeurys Familia suspension. With all those factors in mind, this team is 2-3 arms short in the bullpen.
Speaking of arms, it is questionable the Mets have enough starting pitching. Yes, the team does seem to have seven starters, but most of them carry question marks and/or innings restrictions. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz are all coming off season ending surgeries. To ask them to make 30 innings and throw over 200 innings may be unrealistic. Both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo helped pitch the Mets to the postseason last year, but they will likely be on innings restrictions in 2017 meaning if they are in the Opening Day rotation, they will likely need to be shut down by September. Finally, no one can reasonably expect anything from Zack Wheeler after he hasn’t pitched in over two years. With that in mind, the Mets could use a veteran starter who could eat up innings as the fifth starter, and also could serve as the long man in the bullpen once the Mets are ready to hand the reigns to a Gsellman, Lugo, or Wheeler.
The bench could probably use some help as well. Rene Rivera is a nice backup catcher, but he’s better suited on a team that has a catcher who is not as injury prone as Travis d’Arnaud. Arguably, the team could also use another bat for the bench, especially when you consider the battle for the final spot on the bench will be between Ty Kelly and T.J. Rivera. Given Kelly’s switch hitting ability, and Terry Collins‘ apparently fondness for him, it is likely Kelly will win that competition.
Overall, these are a lot of holes to fill. Arguably, being able to trade Bruce will fill one of them, but will it? If the Mets are indeed looking to slash payroll, how could the team take back salary in the deal? Even assuming the Mets can bring back salary in the deal, doesn’t that mean the team will be prevented from adding another player or two in free agency?
Ultimately, that’s the problem. The team’s needs are not likely going to be filled internally unless you believe Wheeler will be a dominant reliever, Sean Gilmartin will return to his 2015 form, Gabriel Ynoa will take a huge stride forward in his development, and Kelly starts improving at 28 years of age. It is nice to hope this will all work out, but as history tells us, it is rare that everything breaks right for a team in one year. No, the gaps will have to be filled by acquiring players, which will cost money.
Unfortunately, the Mets once again seem out of money. It’s getting old, and sooner or later, it is going to cost the Mets a chance at the postseason as it nearly did last year. When the team is raising ticket prices and the fans are still coming to the ballpark, that isn’t alright. It’s about time the Mets start spending to at least address their needs in the offseason.
Last offseason, the Mets re-signing Yoenis Cespedes put the final touches on the team everyone hoped would compete for a World Series. This year, the re-signing of Cespedes is really just a start for a team that still needs to make a number of moves this offseason. Here is a look at the moves the Mets still need to make:
TRADE JAY BRUCE
With Cespedes back, Jay Bruce likely becomes the outfielder the Mets will trade this offseason. In his nine year career, Bruce has been a .248/.318/.467 hitter who has averaged 27 homers and 82 RBI. At $13 million next season, that production is arguably a bargain. That is probably a reason why teams have been in contact with the Mets trying to inquire what the team will want in exchange for Bruce. While it is hard to believe the Mets will be able to bring in a prospect like Dilson Herrera or a player that will have a similar impact that Bruce will have in 2017, it should not be ruled out that the Mets will be able to acquire a player of consequence that will help the team next season.
DETERMINE MICHAEL CONFORTO’S POSITION
If the Mets are going to trade Bruce, it is another sign that the Mets see Michael Conforto as an everyday player. Where he will be an everyday player remains to be seen. With Cespedes returning for four years with a no trade clause, the only thing we know is that Conforto will not be the teams everyday left fielder anytime soon. That leaves center and right field.
During Conforto’s time in AAA last year, he began learning both positions. In his limited time in the majors at both positions, he showed he may very well be able to handle either position on an everyday basis. However, given the presence of Juan Lagares on this team, the best thing for Conforto and the Mets is to transition him to right field. Let him get fully acclimated there and focus on getting back to where he was April of last year. This will also let Lagares and Curtis Granderson handle center field duties next season, which was a platoon that may work very well for the Mets next year.
OBTAIN A LOOGY
Last year, Jerry Blevins had a terrific year out of the bullpen for the Mets as a LOOGY. In fact, he proved to be a bit more as he had a career best year pitching against right-handed batters. However, he is a free agent now, and the Mets do not appear as if they are able or inclined to give him the multi-year deal that he may command in free agency.
The internal left-handed options are Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker. Edgin did have some success against left-handed batters in limited duty in the majors last year, but with his velocity still not having fully returned after his Tommy John surgery, it is hard to rely upon him in any capacity next year. Smoker had outstanding strikeout rates in the minors and the majors last year, but he has reverse splits. Therefore, the Mets are going to have to look outside the organization to figure out who will be the first lefty out of the pen next season.
OBTAIN ONE OR MORE LATE INNING RELIEVERS
The Mets bullpen really is in a state of flux at the moment due to the Jeurys Familia domestic violence arrest. Pending an investigation by MLB, it is possible that Familia will miss a significant number of games next season. If that is the case, Addison Reed should prove more than capable of closing games in Familia’s absence. This begs the question of who will step up and take over Reed’s role in the short term.
It was a question the Mets faced most of 2016, and they did not find a good answer until they obtained Fernando Salas on the eve of the waiver trade deadline. Given his late inning and closing experience, Salas would be a good option to pitch in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning next year. However, he is a free agent at the moment meaning the Mets are going to have to presumably sign or trade for someone to take over this role. In fact, the Mets may very well need two late inning relievers to address the bullpen.
SIGN A VETERAN STARTER
The one lesson learned from the 2016 season should be that once again you can never have too much pitching. With the return of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz, the Mets rotation is almost complete. The question is who will become the team’s fifth starter.
The first name that will be mentioned is Zack Wheeler. However, after missing all of 2015 and 2016, no one can be quite certain he is ready and able to assume the fifth starter’s role. The next names that will be mentioned are Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Both pitched quite well for the Mets in the stretch run last year, but the Mets may prefer to have a veteran arm who is able to eat up innings and/or can go deeper into the season than any of the aforementioned pitchers. Preferably, the pitcher they do sign would be willing to move to the bullpen in the event Wheeler, Lugo, or Gsellman wins the job in Spring Training or is ready to take over at some point during the season.
FIGURE OUT THE BACK-UP CATCHER SITUATION
Even with Rene Rivera back in the fold and despite his excellent work with Noah Syndergaard, there is still room for improvement on the catching front. Many will mention the recently non-tendered Wellington Castillo, but people should realize he’s an average hitter at best. Moreover, he’s a terrible pitch framer. Mets need to do better than that, but to be fair, that may not be possible.
Whatever the Mets decide to do, they first have to realize that Kevin Plawecki has twice proven he should not be relied upon to be the team’s primary back-up catcher. Next, the Mets have to realize they need a viable backup who can handle playing a number of games due to Travis d’Arnaud‘s injury history.
There are some other matters that need to be figured out as well. For example, do you want Ty Kelly and T.J. Rivera competing for the last spot on the bench, or do you want to re-sign Kelly Johnson? The answer to this and many other questions will largely depend on how much money the Mets have to spend the offseason and/or what the Mets are able to obtain in exchange for Bruce.
Cespedes was a great start to the offseason, but the Mets work is far from over.
After protecting Amed Rosario, Tomas Nido, Chris Flexen, Marcos Molina, and Wuilmer Becerra from the Rule 5 Draft, the Mets 40 man roster now stands at precisely 40 players. This means that now when the Mets look to add a player in free agency, they will have to cut one of the players off of their 40 man roster. And yes, the Mets will have to remove some players off of the 40 man roster.
From all indications, even if the Mets do no re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, they are pursuing other outfielders to replace him. With the possible suspension of Jeurys Familia looming, it is likely, the Mets will have to add one, if not two, late inning relievers. The team may be interested in bringing back Jerry Blevins or finding another LOOGY. In addition to those moves, there are some other moves or upgrades the Mets may make this offseason. With that in mind, here are some players whose spot on the 40 man roster is tenuous:
PITCHERS
Heading into the 2015 season, Edgin was supposed to be the Mets LOOGY for years to come. Those plans changed when he needed Tommy John surgery causing him to miss the entire 2015 season.
He returned in 2016, and he was not the same pitcher having lost velocity off of all of his pitches. He went from having a mid-90s fastball to having a low 90s fastball. As a result, Edgin got hit around. In AAA, he had a 3.51 ERA and a 1.650 WHIP. In his limited stints in the majors, he had a 5.23 ERA and a 1.548 WHIP. Another complication for Edgin is he is arbitration eligible meaning the Mets are presumably going to have to pay him a lot more to keep him on the roster.
On a positive note, Edgin still did get left-handed batters out at the major league level. In a very small sample size (20 plate appearances), lefties only hit .235 off of him with no extra base hits. It is a big reason why he was on the Wild Card Game roster when the Mets faced a San Francisco Giants team stacked with lefties. Between his ability to get lefties out, the hope his arm could improve a second year removed from surgery, and his still having options available, there is still some hope for Edgin.
Gilmartin has gone from an important bullpen arm the Mets acquired in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft to a player who is seemingly lost his ability to get batters out.
Despite Gilmartin being a valuable long man in the pen, the Mets had him start the year in AAA to become starting pitching depth. In 18 starts and one relief appearance, he was 9-7 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.425 WHIP. On a couple of occasions, he was recalled, and he pitched exclusively in relief for the Mets. Things did not go well for him in those 14 relief appearances as Gilmartin had a 7.13 ERA and a 1.585 WHIP. Between his performance and his having to go on the minor league disabled list with shoulder soreness, it was a lost year for Gilmartin.
Some of the struggles of Gilmartin were the result of his uneven usage between AAA and the majors. The other issue was his shoulder soreness, which for now, appears to no longer be an issue. Another strong factor in his favor is the fact that he is not yet arbitration eligible meaning the Mets do not have to pay him much to see if he returns to form. His having options available is also a positive. The Mets could still keep him on the roster with the idea of returning him to the role he was most successful.
There is perhaps no Mets pitcher that evokes such split opinions than Goeddel. For years, there were people who saw a pitcher that was able to go out there and get outs. There were others who saw a guy who had fringy stuff that was more the beneficiary of good luck than good pitching. After the 2016 season, most people agree that Goeddel was a liability for the Mets.
In 36 appearances for the Mets, Goeddel had a 4.54 ERA and a 1.318 WHIP. It should be noted this was a big departure from how he had previously pitched with the Mets. In 2014 and 2015, Goeddel had a combined 2.48 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP. His prior success, his pre-arbitration status, and his having options remaining, gives him a chance to remain on the 40 man roster.
How he is still on the 40 man roster is anyone’s guess. Entering the 2016 season, the Mets had it with him, and they sent him a message by making him one of the first people sent down to minor league Spring Training. Montero responded by pitching so poorly in Las Vegas that he was demoted to Binghamton. It was only due a rash of pitching injuries that he got a shot at pitching in the majors again, and like his other opportunities, he squandered that. Still, despite all that, the Mets cut Eric Campbell and Jim Henderson, AND exposed Paul Sewald to the Rule 5 Draft all for the sake of holding onto Montero that much longer. Eventually, you have to assume Montero is going to get cut from the roster. It is only a matter of when.
Strangely enough, the Mets had to make a decision on whether to expose Verrett to the Rule 5 Draft or to remove a player from the 40 man roster to protect him. The Mets chose the former, and lost him for a period of time. After Verrett struggled with the Rangers, the Mets took him back where Verrett pitched well out of the bullpen and the rotation for the Mets.
The Mets envisioned Verrett succeeding in that role in 2016, but it wasn’t to be. He wasn’t as effective replacing Matt Harvey in the rotation as he was in 2015. He went from a 3.63 ERA as a starter to a 6.45 ERA. He performed so poorly out of the rotation that the Mets gave Montero a chance to start over him down the stretch of the season.
Still, there was a silver lining to Verrett’s 2016 season. In his 23 relief appearances, he had a 2.84 ERA. When you consider his reliever ERA, how well he performed in 2015, his pre-arbitration status, and his having options remaining, there is still a chance for Verrett to remain on the 40 man roster.
POSITION PLAYERS
Thinking of Plawecki being on the bubble is a bit odd especially when he is only 25 years old, has shown himself to be a terrific pitch framer, and he has only had 409 plate appearances at the major league level.
The problem there is Plawecki hasn’t hit at all in those 409 plate appearances. In his brief major league career, Plawecki is a .211/.287/.285 hitter. That’s worse than what Rene Rivera could give you, and Rivera has firmly established himself as Noah Syndergaard‘s personal catcher. Worse yet, Plawecki is not the defensive catcher Rivera is.
When you also consider Tomas Nido‘s breakout season in St. Lucie possibly forcing the Mets to protect him a year earlier than anticipated, the Mets are going to be faced with the dilemma of carrying four catchers on their 40 man roster. With Nido perhaps passing him as the catcher of the future, and Travis d’Arnaud having shown he has more offensive ability than Plawecki, it is quite possible, Plawecki could find himself having run out of chances with the Mets organization.
With all that said, it is hard to believe the Mets moving on from Plawecki this soon is his career.
This is an interesting situation for Kelly to be in considering he was signed to be minor league depth last season. With a rash of injuries and some hot hitting in AAA, Kelly finally reached the majors after his long seven year odyssey in the minor leagues.
After some time, the Mets actually discovered who Kelly was. Despite his switch hitting skills, he really could only hit from the right-hand side against major league pitching. He was versatile, but his best position was left field. Overall, his main asset down the stretch in September was as a pinch runner. He was mostly used as a pinch runner because of the dearth of team speed on the Mets roster. With all the said, he did make the Wild Card Game roster, and he got a pinch hit single off Madison Bumgarner.
Basically, all the reasons you can make for him being kept on the roster or being cut from the roster are the same exact things you could have said about Campbell, and he just signed a deal to play in Japan.
Overall, it is hard to guesstimate how many of these players are going to remain on the roster because we are not sure how many moves the Mets are going to make this offseason. Normally, you would say Montero was sure to be cut, but he is more and more looking like the pitching version of Campbell . . . there is just no getting rid of the guy. Still, as we learned from Campbell, there is going to become a breaking point, and that point may well be when the Mets sign enough players this offseason to take them from the Wild Card back to being World Series contenders.
Editor’s Note: a version of this story was originally run on Mets Merized Online