Jon Niese

Where’s Brad Emaus?

The first real playoff team Terry Collins managed with the Mets was in his first season with the team.  It is hard to believe now, but that team was full of players that are now members, if not significant contributors, to teams that reached the postseason this year:

Reading the names on that list, the two that immediately jump off the page are Murphy and Turner.  They jump off the page for a myriad of reasons. The first reason is the two players are currently facing off against one another in the NLDS between the Dodgers and the Nationals.  The series is tied at 1-1 in large part because Turner and Murphy have continued to be terrific postseason player.

Last year, Turner hit .526/.550/.842 with six doubles and four RBI against the Mets in the NLDS last year.  Overall, in Turner’s postseason career, he is a .500/.538/.875 hitter with six doubles, one homer, and six RBI.

Murphy was the bat that helped carried the Mets to the World Series last year.  In consecutive games, he hit homers off of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks.  He would also homer off Fernando Rodney in what was a stretch of six straight games with a home run.  In addtion to the homers, Murphy’s going from first to third on a walk in Game Five of the NLDS helped changed the complexion of that game.  Additionally, up until the World Series, he had played exceptional defense (which admittedly is a rarity for him).  So far in the NLDS, Murphy is 4-6 with a walk and two RBI.  The first of the two RBI was the go-ahead RBI in Game 2 of the NLDS.

Between Turner and Murphy, the Mets had at one time two second baseman who have established themselves to be extraordinarily clutch and terrific postseason players.  They were also two players the Mets were eager to replace.

Turner was surprisingly non-tendered a contract after a 2013 season where he seemed to solidify himself as a utility or platoon player (at a minimum).  Instead, the Mets let him go with rumors circulating that he was a me-first player that didn’t hustle.  He was also characterized as a player that wasn’t progressing because he liked the night scene a little too much.  He would go to Los Angeles and blossom as a player.  The Mets internal replacement?  Eric Campbell.

When Murphy became a free agent, the Mets first aggressively pursued Ben Zobrist.  After failing to land him, the Mets quickly moved to trade for Neil Walker.  At no time did the Mets even make Murphy an offer.  Unlike Turner, Walker was an actual replacement with Walker having a great year for the Mets before needing season ending back surgery.  However, despite how good Walker’s year was, he still wasn’t anywhere near was good as Murphy was for the Nationals.

It should never have come as a surprise that both of these players were gone because the Mets, under Sandy Alderson’s reign as General Manager, never really wanted either player.  If you go back to that 2011 season, the Opening Day second baseman was Rule 5 Draft pick, Brad Emaus.  After a couple of weeks of him struggling, the Mets moved on and finally went to Murphy and Turner at second base.  Murphy would get the bulk of the playing time there until Ike Davis‘ ankle injury that allowed them to play side-by-side.  With Davis’ healing up and being ready for the 2012 season, the Mets proceeded with Murphy as the second baseman and Turner as the utility player.  As we know, that lasted just two year.

Ultimately, the Mets made the postseason this year without either player.  And yes, both players got their first chance with the Mets.  Quite possibly, neither player would be in the position they are in now without the Mets giving them a chance to prove they are major league players.  However, the Mets also made clear they didn’t want either player starting all the way back in 2011 when they anointed Emaus the everyday second baseman.  Eventually, the Mets would get their chance to move on, and they took advantage of that opportunity.

With that, Murphy and Turner are in the NLDS after the Mets lost the Wild Card Game with T.J. Rivera starting at second base.  One of those two will be in the NLCS with a chance to go to the World Series, a position the Mets thought they were going to be in as the season started.  With all that in mind, it begs the question: how much differently would the Mets season have gone if they had kept either Turner or Murphy?

 

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Youth Will Be Served

When a player goes down, the natural inclination is to go seek out a veterans to be the stop gap or replacement. The reaction is understandable because you want a steady presence with someone who has proven stats. Granted, it’s most likely going to be diminished stats, but people would rather deal with that than a young player who may not be ready and could be even worse than the veteran. 

That’s why we saw the Mets make a move to re-acquire Kelly Johnson not too long after David Wright went down. It’s why the Mets acquired James Loney to replace Lucas Duda. It’s also why the Mets brought back Jose Reyes to help an injured and underperforming Mets offense. It’s also why the Mets traded for Jay Bruce rather than counting on Michael Conforto to return to form. For the most part, it has worked out for the Mets. 

With that said, Reyes is the only imported veteran who is currently producing. Johnson is mired in a 12-54 slump. Loney has hit .253/.287/.337 since the All Star Break. Bruce has hit .181/.261/.297 since joining the Mets. 

These underperforming veterans coupled with the  Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores injuries have forced the Mets to turn to some youngsters. 

T.J. Rivera has all but taken over the second base job for the rest of the year. In the five games since he became the starting second baseman, he is hitting .450/.455/.800 with two home runs. Both of those home runs proved to be game winners. For the season, he is hitting .344/.344/.492. 

Yesterday, Conforto started for Bruce, who the Mets have taken to booing after every at bat. Conforto made the most of his opportunity going 2-4 with two RBI.  In the four games he was given an opportunity to start since he was recalled when rosters expanded, Conforto has gone 4-16 with two doubles, two RBI, a walk, and a hit by pitch. 

It’s not just the offensive players that are outprodicing the veterans, it is the young pitchers as well. 

When Matt Harvey went down, the Mets understandably turned to Logan Verrett who did an admirable job filling in as a spot starter last year. Unfortunately, this year he had a 6.45 ERA as a starter in 12 starts. The Mets also went out and brought back Jon Niese who was actually worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates before undergoing season ending knee surgery. 

With Verrett and Niese faltering and the injuries to Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom, the Mets had no choice but to go with their young pitchers.

First was Seth Lugo, who has arguably been the Mets best starter since he has joined the rotation. Lugo has made six starts going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. Including his nine relief appearances, Lugo is 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP. 

He is joined in the rotation by Robert Gsellman. Gsellman has made four starts and one relief appearance where he came in for Niese when he went down for good with his knee injury. Overall, Gsellman is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.405 WHIP. 

In addition to the offense and the rotation, the Mets have had Josh Smoker emerge in the bullpen. In 15 appearances, Smoker is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while bailing the Mets out of a few jams. More impressively, he is striking out 15.3 batters per nine innings. 

Overall, these young and untested players have stepped up and helped take the Mets from an under .500 team to a team 11 games over .500 and in the top Wild Card spot. 

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Lugo & Gsellman Are Pitching for the Postseason

Every time the Mets run Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman to the mound, they’re out there trying to help the Mets return to the postseason. They’re also making their own case why the Mets should put them on the postseason roster.

Assuming the Mets make it back to the postseason, there is little guaranteed on who will and who won’t be on the postseason roster. In fact, as it stands today, Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon are the only two starting pitchers who will be guaranteed a spot on the postseason roster. If, and it is becoming a bigger if with each passing day, Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom can return from their injuries, they will be guaranteed not only a spot on the roster, but also a start in the postseason.

Assuming deGrom and Matz can return for the postseason, there will still be room in the bullpen. Last season, the Mets went with 11 pitchers in the bullpen. The Mets were given that luxury, in part, because the team carried Colon and Jon Niese in the bullpen. This gave the Mets a number of pitchers who could go multiple innings out of the bullpen. Coupled with a starting rotation that could go deep into game, the Mets were able to add the extra bat on the bench. Looking at the Mets bullpen as constituted, there are few absolutely guaranteed spots:

  1. Jeurys Familia
  2. Addison Reed
  3. Hansel Robles
  4. Jerry Blevins
  5. Fernando Salas

With teams only needing four starters in the postseason, that leaves two open spots in the postseason bullpen.

If deGrom and Matz are able to pitch in the postseason, that means Lugo, Gsellman, and Montero will be competing for the last two spots in the bullpen most likely with Josh Smoker and Jim Henderson. If the Mets want to go with two lefties in the bullpen, Smoker could have the inside track. While he has been touched in three of his nine appearances, Smoker has shown he can strike people out. Currently, he strikes out 14.5 batters per nine innings, which is only slightly higher than his 12.8 strikeout per nine figure in AAA. If Smoker keeps striking people out, it is going to be hard to justify leaving him off the postseason roster.

Given his early season success, Henderson presumably has an excellent chance of being on the postseason roster. However, each and every time Henderson takes the mound, he makes a case why the Mets can’t trust him in a big spot. In his six appearances since coming off the disabled list, Henderson has a 7.20 ERA and has allowed opponents to hit .318 off of him.

If the Mets went with Smoker and Henderson, there may still be a spot for Lugo and Gsellman if the Mets decide to go with 12 pitchers this offseason. In that scenario, there would be one last bullpen available that would most likely go to Lugo or Gsellman. That means with every start, Lugo and Gsellman are not just pitching against the opponent, but also each other.

Overall, in order for Lugo and Gsellman to help their chances for a postseason roster spot, and for the Mets to even make the postseason, they are going to have to go out there and continue pitching as well as they have been.

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Is the Glass Half-Empty or Half-Full with Rafael Montero?

The Mets who were long said to have organizational pitching depth are once again at the point where they are pitching Rafael Montero in a pennant race.  Worse yet, the Mets are pitching Montero in this spot because Jon Niese cannot make the start because he had knee surgery.  With that said, it’s Montero who his making the start in place of the injured Jacob deGrom.

Keep in mind this is the same Montero who the Mets were apparently done with Montero this season.

The Mets were disgusted with him last year because they wanted him to pitch because there was a fundamental disagreement between him and the team regarding whether his shoulder was injured enough to pitch.  After pitching horribly in his first Spring Training start, he was one of the first players sent down to minor league Spring Training.  The Mets called him up briefly in April to help a struggling bullpen, but Collins almost refused to pitch him.  After being put on the shelf for a week, he struggled.  Montero then struggled in AAA when he was sent back down leading to his demotion to AA.  With important prospects like Amed Rosario needing to be added to the 40 man roster in order to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft, it appeared Montero’s days in the Mets organization were coming to an end.

Now, with a rash of injuries, the Mets turn again to Montero to make a critical start during a pennant race.  Once again, the Mets hope Montero can be the pitcher they always thought he would be.

In Montero’s first start of the season, he pitched five shutout innings against a Marlins team that was ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card standings.  In those five shutout innings, he gave the Mets a chance to at least outlast Jose Fernandez and get into the Marlins bullpen to eke out a victory.  On the glass half-empty side, you see a pitcher who allowed six walks and was constantly on the brink of disaster.  He was a pitcher who needed 100 pitches to get through those five innings helping tax the Mets bullpen.  On the glass half-full side, you see a pitcher who, despite getting squeezed by the home plate umpire, battled his way and kept his team in the game.  You finally saw Montero persevere.

Tonight, we’re going to find out once again if the glass is half-empty or half-full.  Montero is pitching against a bad Reds team in a hitter’s ballpark. The glass half-full Montero beats a team that he needs to beat.  The glass half-empty Montero struggles in a hitter’s park.  So far, the glass has been half-empty with Montero, but there is still time to change that.

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Gavin Cecchini Needs to Be Up Here Now

Last night, the Mets received some devastating news when it was discovered that Neil Walker was going to miss the rest of the season due to a herniated disc that is going to require surgery.  With Walker done for the year, the Mets are missing not only a good defender, but also a good bat.  Someway, somehow the Mets are going to have to replace Walker’s .282/.347/.476 batting line and his 23 homers.  It is no easy task.

The obvious solution is a Wilmer Flores – Kelly Johnson platoon.  That tandem should be able to replicate Walker’s production as both are incredibly hot at the plate.  Flores hit .306/.346/.542 in August with five homers and 19 RBI.  Better yet, he is hitting .340/.386/.691 with 10 homers and 26 RBI off lefties this season.  For his part, Johnson is hitting .289/.353/.511 with eight homers and 20 RBI in 60 games for the Mets.  Over the last month, he is hitting .288/.348/.576 with five homers and 14 RBI.  Johnson also had that game winning bases clearing RBI double last night that helped the Mets win the game.

If second base were the only issue, that would be fine.  However, the Mets have issues at first base and shortstop that needs to be addressed.

At first base, the Mets have a floundering James Loney.  In the month of August, he hit .213/.222/.447 with just one extra base hit.  Worse yet, these numbers were with Terry Collins shielding him against left-handed pitching.  As we saw last night, Collins is going to be forced to play Flores at first and Johnson at second.  When you couple that with Asdrubal Cabrera dealing with a knee injury, the Mets do not have much margin for error.

Even with the rosters expanding today, that remains to be true as the players on the 40 man roster leave a lot to be desired as an everyday replacement.

the 40 man roster, the Mets have enigmatic options.

Eric Campbell is once again dominating AAA hitting .297/.396/.428 with 13 doubles, four triples, five homers, and 40 RBI. Yes, four triples. However, this follows a stint where he didn’t hit in the majors going .159/.270/.222.

Ty Kelly is coming off a decent stint in the majors where Collins shielded the switch-hitter against left-handed pitching.  Since his demotion Kelly is hitting .258/.314/.290 with only one extra base hit in the extremely hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.

Finally, there is Matt Reynolds who hit .211/.231/.382 in 37 games with the Mets. After the AAA All Star Break, Reynolds has been hitting .255/.333/.294 with only four doubles in 102 at bats.

Keep in mind, T.J. Rivera is not an option at the moment as he needs to remain in the minors until next week because he was sent down to make room for Rafael Montero‘s spot start.  This means that even though the Mets have warm bodies available to play the middle infield, they do not have players who can play everyday at the major league level.

With these three not hitting or having established they are not capable of hitting at the major league level, the Mets need to turn in another direction for help. With that in mind, the Mets best option is their 2012 first round draft pick Gavin Cecchini.

While playing shortstop this season, Cecchini has been hitting .327/.388/.449 with 27 doubles, two triples, seven homers, and 53 RBI. Over the past month, Cecchini is hitting .358/.378/.480 with nine doubles, two homers, and 12 RBI. While many have knocked his defense as he has a woeful .929 fielding percentage, it is notable that Cecchini has gone his last 14 games without an error.

For what it is worth, Cecchini has only played one game at secondin his minor league career, and that was Thursday.  It should be noted with the rise of Amed Rosario and the trade of Dilson Herrera, Cecchini’s future will be second base.  Given the fact that Collins had no issue throwing Reynolds into left field in a game without him having ever played there before, the concerns about him not being a second baseman are a bit overblown.

In reality, the only thing preventing the Mets from calling up Cecchini right now is the fact that he’s not on the 40 man roster.  However, with the Jon Niese and Neil Walker injuries, the Mets have the opportunity to move either of them to the 60 day disabled list freeing up a spot for Cecchini.  Keep in mind, the Mets are going to have to add Cecchini this offseason anyway to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.

With the Mets needing to patch things together on the right side of their infield, they need as many options as possible.  They also need some insurance for Cabrera’s knee.  They could use another shortstop who could take over for Cabrera late in games to allow him to rest his knee.  Furthermore, given the Mets team speed, they could use someone who could be available to pinch run late in games.

Cecchini could fulfill each of these roles quite well.  Furthermore, if given the opportunity, he might just prove more valuable than that.  At this point, there is really no good reason to keep Cecchini in AAA.  He needs to be up in the majors now helping the Mets return to the postseason.

Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on Mets Minors

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Mets August 2016 Report Card

The Mets entered August 6.5 games back in the NL East race behind both the Nationals and the Marlins.  They also trailed the Marlins by 1.5 games for the last Wild Card spot.  The Mets have also fallen behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race as well.

By going 15-14, August turned out to be just the second winning month the Mets have had this season.  They now trail the Nationals by nine games in the NL East.  After what has been a crazy month, the Mets still remain 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot.  Only now, the Mets trail the the Cardinals after having helped put the Marlins away having won the first three against them in a four game series.  Given the Mets weak September schedule, it should be an interesting finish to the season.

Bear in mind, these grades are on a curve. If a bench player gets an A and a position player gets a B, it doesn’t mean the bench player is having a better year. Rather, it means the bench player is performing better in his role.

Position Players

Travis d’Arnaud (C).  After the Jonathon Lucroy rumors died down, d’Arnaud starting hitting again.  However, he has cooled off to hit at a rate slightly better than his 2016 totals.  Part of the reason may be Collins playing Rivera over him with the Mets needing to throw a lot of young pitchers out there.

Kevin Plawecki (Inc.)  Plawecki spent the entire month down in AAA where he has started hitting again.  He should be among the first group of players called up today.  It’ll be interesting to see what, if any, impact he has over the final month of the season.

Rene Rivera (C).  Rivera came crashing back to Earth offensively.  However, his value has always been as a receiver, and he has done that job fairly well helping usher some of these young pitchers into the big leagues.

Lucas Duda (Inc). Duda is most likely gone for the season, and the debate will soon begin about whether he will be a Met in 2017.

James Loney (F).  He didn’t hit for average or power, nor did he get on base much during the entire month.  Worse yet, he has not been good in the field.  The next ball he stretches for will be his first.

Neil Walker (A+).  What has happened to Walker is nothing short of heart breaking.  He had completely turned his season around, and he appeared to be headed for a massive payday this offseason with him standing out as one of the better options in a weak free agent class.  Instead, Walker is going to have season ending back surgery to end his season.

David Wright (Inc.).  It’s clear he’s done for the season, but it is nice seeing him around Citi Field and looking better.

Asdrubal Cabrera (A+).  Since his return from the disabled list, Cabrera has been a blonde bombshell.  He moved into the second spot in the order, and he he has combine with Reyes to form a dynamic and powerful 1-2 duo at the top of the lineup.  The only concern is how much he is going to actually be able to play with that lingering knee issue.

Wilmer Flores (B+).  Flores has continued to rake putting up numbers at an unprecedented.  This month he hit seven homers.  He has benefited greatly by mostly facing left-handed pitchers, and now he’s hitting righties better. The Mets will need his versatility all the more as injuries mounted during the month.

Eric Campbell (Inc.) Campbell did not play in a game during the month, and the Mets are not likely to call him up again until rosters expand in September.

Matt Reynolds (D).  Reynolds didn’t hit well during his 10 games with the Mets this month.  Worse yet for him, he has been passed over on the team’s depth chart by Rivera.

Ty Kelly (A).  During his limited August playing time, Collins was able to maximize Kelly’s abilities by making him a short-lived platoon left fielder with Cespedes dealing with his quad injury.  In his nine August games, Kelly hit .381/.500/.524 with a double and a triple.

Michael Conforto (D).  After a stretch in which the Mets bottomed out, Conforto was sent down as he was a young player unable to handle sporadic playing time.  Since being sent down to AAA, Conforto has hit everything including lefties.  He should be called up today, and most likely, never play as Collins is his manager.

Yoenis Cespedes (A).  It was admirable that Cespedes played until he could play no longer (even if his golfing might’ve been part of the reason why).  Since his return, Cespedes is hitting home runs again.  He has had another incredible month, and he had a walkoff with a legendary bat flip to help the Mets beat the Marlins.

Curtis Granderson (D).  It hasn’t been fun seeing last year’s team MVP struggle the way he has this month.  He lost his job in right, moved to center, and now has become a part time player.  The hope is that with the time off, he rests up, and he returns to the Granderson of old.  Those hopes don’t seem that far fetched after he came off the bench the other night to hit two home runs.

Juan Lagares (Inc).  Lagares didn’t play in August due to the thumb surgery.  It remains questionable if he can return in September as he will most likely not be ready for rehab games until after the minor league affiliates have ended their seasons.

Alejandro De Aza (C-).  De Aza followed a great July with another poor August.  Mixed in there were a couple of terrific games that helped the Mets win a pivotal game against the Cardinals.  Right now, what he brings more than anything is the ability to play center field.

Kelly Johnson (A+).  Johnson continues to be the Mets top pinch hitter as well as a platoon option in the infield.  Over the past month, he has hit for more power including a surprising five homers.  His bases loaded double last night might’ve buried the Marlins.

Brandon Nimmo (Inc).  He only played two games before being sent down to AAA.  Given the fact that he’s one of the few healthy center fielders in the organization, he may see some real time when he gets called up with the expanded rosters.

Jose Reyes (A).  You could say we’re seeing the Reyes of old, but Reyes has never been this good in his career.  He has adapted extremely well to third base while playing a steady shortstop when the Mets have needed him to play over there when Cabrera has been injured or needing a day off.  The one caution is he still isn’t hitting right-handed pitching that well.  Still, his numbers were terrific.

T.J. Rivera (B).  After all this time, Rivera finally got his chance.  He made the most of it hitting .289 in 13 games while playing decently at second and third base.

Justin Ruggiano (Inc).  When he plays, he hits, but he is now on his second disabled list stint already with the Mets. With him being put on the 60 day disabled list, he’s now done for the season.   Seeing what we have seen with the team, there may be something in the water.

Jay Bruce (F).  Since coming to the Mets for Dilson Herrera, he has just been bad.  But hey, it’s not like the Mets need another second baseman, right?

Pitchers

Matt Harvey (Inc).  Harvey is done for the season after having had successful surgery to remove a rib.  For a player who has been criticized in the past for attending Yankee games while being gone for the season, Harvey has been a fixture in the Mets dugout during games.

Jacob deGrom (D).  deGrom had been pitching great until August rolled around.  In back-to-back big games against the Giants and the Cardinals, he couldn’t deliver pitching two of the worst games in his career.  Hopefully, the Mets skipping his last start will help get him back on track.

Noah Syndergaard (B). Syndergaard has had an uneven month, but after his last start, it appears he is dealing better with the bone spurs, and he is getting back to the pitcher who was dominant over the first half of the season.

Steven Matz (C).  Just as you thought he turned things around with his flirting with a no-hitter in his last start, he goes down with a shoulder injury.  At this time, it is unknown as to when or if he can return.

Bartolo Colon (A).  Colon stopped his good start-bad start streak in August, and he started pitching much better during the month of August at a time when the Mets needed him the most.

Logan Verrett (F).  Look, he shouldn’t have been tapped as the Mets fifth starter after Harvey went down, but with that said, he did everything he could to lose the job pitching to a 13.50 ERA in August.  He eventually lost the job to Niese of all people

Jeurys Familia (A).  That’s the Familia we all know and love.  He not only had a sub 1.00 ERA, but he also broke the single season Mets save record he shared with Armando Benitez.

Addison Reed (B+).  You knew he wasn’t going to keep up what he has been doing, but even with him coming back to Earth slightly, he has still be incredible.

Jim Henderson (F).  After being on the disabled list for so long with yet another shoulder injury, Henderson has made his way back to the majors.  Unfortunately, he’s not the same pitcher.  Collins owes him an apology.

Hansel Robles (F).  Robles showed how much he has been overworked this season by Collins this month.  Hopefully, with some rest, he should finally be able to rebound and contribute in September and beyond like he had done for most of the season.

Jerry Blevins (B+).  His 2.16 ERA was terrific, but his 1.560 WHIP gives some reason for pause.  Both righties and lefties are starting to hit him, and he has been allowing inherited runners to score.

Antonio Bastardo (Inc.)  Thankfully, he is gone, and it was worth it even if it meant the Mets had to take back Niese.

Rafael Montero (Inc.) He got an unexpected start due to injuries, and he fought his way through five scoreless innings.  Good for him.

Sean Gilmartin (Inc.)  Gilmartin has only made three appearances since being recalled, and he hasn’t pitched particularly well.  Whether it was the shoulder injury or teams figuring him out, he’s not the same guy he was last season.

Erik Goeddel (F).  There used to be two factions of the Mets fan base: those who thought Goeddel was a good major league pitcher, and those that didn’t.  Seemingly, everyone is now in the latter camp now.

Seth Lugo (A).  Lugo has been nothing short of a revelation this year.  Due to injuries, he has had to go from the bullpen to the rotation.  He has not only shown his stuff translates as a starter, but he also shown he could actually be more effective as a starter.  He has gotten his 2014 deGrom moment, and he has taken advantage of it.

Jon Niese (F).  Somehow, he was worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates.  He has failed in the bullpen and the rotation.  Hopefully, for him, the reason is because of his knee injury that has required surgery.

Robert Gsellman (Inc.) It’s been a mixed bag for Gsellman.  In his one relief apperance and his one start, he has given the Mets a chance to win.   However, he’s a powder keg out there as it seems as if he is in trouble each and every inning.  To his credit, he has gotten out of most of the jams.  It’ll be interesting to see where he goes from here.

Gabriel Ynoa (Inc.) Ynao was surprisingly called up to pitch out of the bullpen.  In three rough appearances, the only thing you can fairly conclude is he isn’t comfortable yet pitching out of the bullpen.

Josh Edgin (D) Edgin has gone through the long Tommy John rehab process, but he’s not quite back yet.  His velocity isn’t quite there.  With that in mind, he has struggles getting major league batters out.

Josh Smoker (B) After a rough start to his major league career, he has gone out there and gotten better each and every time out.  He is getting his fastball in the upper 90s, and he is a strikeout machine.  He could be a real factor over the next month and in the postseason

Terry Collins (D)  He iced Conforto.  He continues to overwork the bullpen.  He makes baffling lineup decision after baffling lineup decision.  He is even worse with in-game management.  However, with the Mets on a stretch against some bad teams, and the Wild Card frontrunners not having run away with it, he may once again be in position to ride some good luck into the postseason.

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Mets Solution for Pitcher Injuries Has Been to Pitch More

The entire Jon Niese situation is just another unforced error in a series of unforced errors during the entire Mets season in how they have dealt with pitcher injuries.

It started with Matt Harvey.  From the beginning of the season when he had his medical issues, there was something wrong with Harvey.  However, even with his missing time due to it, he started on Opening Day.  He struggled somewhat on Opening Day as he would most of the season.  He consistently complained of issues with his mechanics, and on a few occasions, the Mets actually debated whether or not he should be sent down to the minors.  Even with his velocity drop, the Mets pinned it on mechanics.  As it would turn out, Harvey has thoracic outlet syndrome requiring him to have season ending surgery.

Next up was Steven Matz.  Matz has bone spurs in his elbow that are very painful.  Matz wanted to have the surgery, but the Mets talked him out of it.  Instead, the Mets shot him up with painkillers before every start, and they put him on the mound.  The Mets did this despite Matz not pitching anywhere near as well as he had been pitching before the bone spurs became an issue.  When Matz finally did seem to turn things around, he went on the disabled list with a shoulder strain and rotator cuff irritation.  For what it’s worth, it does not seem like he is going to miss the rest of the season.  However, given how the Mets have handled him thus far, it is fair to question if this decision is predicated on trying to win as many games as possible or whether Matz really will be ready to return.

Finally, we are back at Niese, who the Mets brought back because they needed another arm with all of the other injuries the Mets had.  When Niese faltered in the bullpen allowing six earned in an inning of relief work, the Mets moved him to the rotation believing starting would be better for him and his knee.  They were of course wrong.  Niese would only last four batters in his last start against the Cardinals before having to come out of the game.  Now, he is going to have surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.  He may very well be done for the season.

The Mets decision to start Niese taxed the bullpen as Mets relievers needed to go 8.2 innings in the game.  Speaking of the bullpen, we again circle back at the Jim Henderson decision.  Henderson is coming off two shoulder surgeries, and he did not pitch in the majors this year.  A day after Henderson threw a career high 34 pitches in a game, Terry Collins went right back to him in a “must-win” April game.  Henderson would have reduced velocity not just in that appearance, but also future appearances.  He would eventually have to go on the disabled list with a right should impingement.

Judging from how Collins has used Erik Goeddel both this season, a pitcher who has had a series of arm issues, it appears the Mets have no intention of learning from past mistakes.

There is no doubt the Mets have had some bad luck on the injury front.  Harvey’s thoracic outlet syndrome wasn’t caused by anything the team did, and bone spurs is a common issue for pitchers.  There is no evidence to suggest the Mets did anything to cause Niese’s injury.  So no, the injuries aren’t the Mets fault.  The issue is how the Mets have handled those injuries.  Instead of the Mets giving these players rest and putting them on the disabled list as a precaution like how the Nationals did with Stephen Strasburg, the Mets told them to go out there and continue pitching.  It created the possibility that each and every single one of these pitchers could have been further injured.

So no, the Mets can’t be blamed for how each of these pitchers got injured.  Rather, the Mets can be blamed for these pitchers might have had further injuries with how the Mets have handled them.

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Key to Winning the Wild Card: Beat the Teams You’re Supposed to Beat

There are a multitude of reasons why the Mets are only a game over .500 and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card. 

The most popular excuse is injuries. There is some validity there with Matt Harvey, Lucas Duda, and David Wright gone for the year. Yoenis Cespedes was hobbled by a quad injury before he was finally forced to go on the disabled list. Now that he’s back, he has a heel issue. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs.  Matz is also dealing with a shoulder issue that landed him on the disabled list. For what it’s worth, Jon Niese is also on the disabled list as he needs arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. 

That’s a litany of injuries, and that’s not all of them. However, that’s not the Mets biggest problem. The Mets biggest problem is they’re not beating the Mets they are supposed to beat. 

Over the past two weeks, the Mets went 1-5 against the woeful Diamondbacks. TheDiamondbacks  can’t best anyone as represented by their 53-75 record, which is a 93 loss pace. 

The Padres are on the same 93 loss pace with a 53-74 record. On the season, the Mets could only muster a 4-3 record against them. 

The Mets are 7-6 against the Braves this year. The Braves are well on their way to a 100 loss season with a 46-82 record. 

The Mets are 5-4 against the Phillies. The Phillies are near a 90 less pace with a 59-68 record. With the Phillies rolling into town, the Mets can turn that 5-4 mark to an 8-4 mark. 

Fact is the Mets need to do that if they have designs on getting back to the postseason. Keep in mind, beating teams like the Phillies and Braves powered the Mets run to a division title. 

In 2015, the Mets were 90-72, which is 18 games over .500. Against the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins, three teams that lost over 90 games, the Mets were a combined 36-21. Against just those three terrible teams, the Mets went 15 games over .500. It goes a long way in explaining why the Mets were 18 games over .500 and won the division. 

Currently, the Mets are 64-63. Against the aforementioned second division clubs, the Mets are 17-18, one game over .500. If the Mets played those 35 games at a similar clip than they did against the intradivision 90+ loss teams in 2015, the Mets would’ve gone 22-13. That would mean that the Mets would be a more respectable 69-58. That would’ve put them in a tie with the Giants for the first Wild Card and five games back in the division.  

Now, if the Mets beat the aforementioned second division clubs at the same rate other teams beat them, their record against those teams would be be 21-14. This means the Mets record would be 68-59 giving them a half game lead for the second Wild Card and putting them a game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card. 

Overall, people can point to injuries all they want, but the simple fact is even with those injuries, the Mets were still better than the Phillies, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Padres. They just didn’t play like it. 

The Mets have a chance to reverse course. Of their remaining 35 games, 22 of them are against teams under .500. If the Mets truly want to win the Wild Card, they’ll need to destroy those opponents like they did in 2015. That begins tonight when the Mets begin their three game set against the Phillies. 

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

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Seth Lugo is Better than Philip Humber

Back in 2007, the Mets collapsed in part due to a rash of pitcher injuries.   Pedro Martinez missed most of the year following offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum.  An injured Orlando Hernandez (El Duque) had to be moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen.  With they myriad of injuries, Mike Pelfrey was put in the rotation before he was truly ready.  Brian Lawrence made a few poor starts.  With the walls crashing in on the Mets and the Phillies gaining on them, the Mets had to turn to Philip Humber.

Humber was the third overall pick in the 2004 draft.  In his career, he never lived up to that billing.  It could have been that he was damaged goods coming from Rice University, who is well known for abusing pitcher arms. He did have ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery before his major league debut.  It could be that he was rushed through the system never being given proper time to develop.  It could any single factor or any combination thereof.  It could just be that he just wasn’t good enough to be a top line starting pitcher.

He certainly wasn’t on September 27, 2007.  His final line was four innings, six hits, five runs, five earned, two walks, no strikeouts, and one home run allowed.  Humber did his best to battle that night, but he either wasn’t ready or wasn’t capable of winning a big game like that.  The only reason he didn’t take the loss was the Mets staked him to a 4-0 and a 6-2 lead.  It would be his last game as a Met as he would be part of the Johan Santana trade.  It was also the last day the Mets would have sole possession of first place as the loss would drop them to only one up in the division.

Like in 2007, the starting pitching is dropping like flies.  Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and even Jon Niese have found themselves on the disabled list.  Logan Verrett has served as this year’s Lawrence.  Robert Gsellman serves as this year’s Pelfrey.  However, Lugo isn’t quite this year’s Humber.  They really have nothing in common.

Whereas Humber was a high draft pick, Lugo was a 34th round draft pick.  While Humber was pushed through the minors without mastering a level, Lugo has performed at each and every level having to prove himself over and over again.  During his career, Humber had trouble developing a real outpitch.  Conversely, Lugo has a terrific curveball that has already fooled Anthony Rizzo, who is a terrific major league hitter.  More importantly, the main difference between Humber and Lugo is Lugo has already had success as a pitcher for the Mets.

In nine appearances as a reliever, Lugo pitched 17.0 innings and had a 2.65 ERA.  When injuries forced him to make an unexpected start, Lugo was better than anyone could have imagined.  He was not only good, but he was efficient.  When Lugo walked off the mound, he had pitched 6.2 innings allowing seven hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with three strikeouts.  At a minimum, Lugo has shown everyone he has the capability of being a good and reliable major league pitcher.

During this season, this Mets team has been compared to past Mets teams that have failed.  Namely, they have been compared to the 1987, 2001, and 2007 teams.  You can go up and down the line and compare different aspects of those teams to this current team.  However, those comparisons need to stop with Lugo as everyone should have faith when Lugo steps on the mound.

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Jacob deGrom Didn’t Have It Again 

You can point to whatever you want, but the simple fact is the Mets lost this game because Jacob deGrom didn’t have it for the second straight game.  That much was made apparent when Matt Carpenter led off the bottom of the first with a home run. 

He would only last 4.2 innings allowing a whopping 12 hits with two walks while only striking out three. The scary part is it could have been a lot worse than the five runs he allowed. 

In the second deGrom caught a wandering Yadier Molina off second after a leadoff double. The Cardinals still rallied that inning, but they wouldn’t score. Randal Grichuk tried to score on a Greg Garcia single, but he would be gunned down by Curtis Granderson to end the inning. The play was really made by Travis d’Arnaud, who made a terrific tag. 

https://twitter.com/statcast/status/768659716088016897

That would keep the game at 1-1. The Mets sole run of the game was scored off an Asdrubal Cabrera double scoring Alejandro De Aza. It scored De Aza because he was pinch running for Jay Bruce, who injured himself on a leadoff double. The Mets are calling it a cramp. Given their ability to diagnose injuries, I’m sure it’ll be much worse:

In the fourth, the Cardinals expanded their lead to 3-1 on a Grichuk solo shot. They continued to rally, and they had first and second with one out. Carpenter then ripped a line drive right at James Loney, who then beat pitcher Carlos Martinez back to the bag for the inning ending double play. 

In the fifth, deGrom allowed another home run. This one was a two run shot to Stephen Piscotty. After that deGrom would allow a hit and a walk all but forcing Collins to pull him after 95 pitches and the Mets down 5-1. Erik Goeddel came on and got the Mets out if the jam without allowing any further damage that inning. 

It’s understandable why Terry Collins would try to push deGrom. He’s the ace, and he’s the guy who can get people out when he seemingly has nothing. On top of that, the Mets bullpen went 8.2 innings yesterday and needed a break. It should be noted the Mets were in that predicament because they started Jon Niese with full knowledge he had a bum knee, which could mean he would need to be pulled early. 

What is strange is Collins pushed Goeddel, who put in a yeoman’s effort. Goeddel has a history of arm injuries, and he’s not a long reliever. Meanwhile, Hansel Robles was well rested and has had experience and success going multiple innings.

Collins wouldn’t go to Robles until the seventh until Goeddel hit a walk after 1.2 solid innings of work. He did allow a run on a Jhonny Peralta RBI triple that Granderson had some trouble with in right. 

For what it’s worth, Robles wasn’t sharp like most of this over worked Collins’ bullpen has. Robles’ final line was 1.2 innings, five hits hits, one run, one earned, no walks, and one strikeout. He did allow an inherited runner to score tagging Goeddel with a second earned run allowed. 

Through all of this the Mets could not solve Martinez who was great all night. His final line was eight innings, four hits, one run, one earned, three walks, and five strikeouts. 

Overall, this story was about deGrom. Over his last two starts, he has allowed 25 hits to the 52 batters he’s faced while allowing four homers. It marked the first time a Mets pitcher has allowed 12 or more hits in consecutive games. This was deGrom’s third straight bad start against a Wild Card contender. 

As it stands, the Mets lost 8-1, and it wasn’t really that close. The Mets are back at .500 . . . again. They are back to 4.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card. 

The loss makes tomorrow’s game all the more important. No matter what happens tomorrow, the Mets need to get deGrom to get back to his dominant self. 

Game Notes: Neil Walker missed his second straight game as he is with his wife and newborn daughter. Yoenis Cespedes looked hobbled again out there in left. He went 0-4 with a strikeout. 

Pennant Race: The Pirates lost to the Astros 5-4. The Nationals lost to the Orioles 10-8. The Marlins beat the Royals 3-0. Jose Fernandez appeared to leave that game with an injury. The Marlins are calling it a cramp. 

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