Jacob deGrom
As reported in several media outlets yesterday, Stephen Strasburg received a seven year $175 million contract extension. The deal has an average annual value of $25 million. The contract features rolling opt out clauses after the third or fourth year. Additionally, Strasburg will receive a million dollar bonus each year he pitches over 180 innings.
Strasburg is a former number one overall pick. He’s 27 years old. He has had Tommy John surgery. He is in his fifth full big league season. He throws hard with a 96 MPH fastball, 89 MPH change and slider, and an 81 MPH curve. In his career, he is 59-37 with a 3.07 ERA, 127 ERA+, 2.80 FIP, 1.089 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9. He’s struck out 200 batters in a season once, made one All Star team, and finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting once.
Before the contact extension, he was slated to be the top free agent on the market. Also, his agent is Scott Boras.
This contract confirms what all Mets fans know. Keeping the current starting staff together when they start becoming free agents is next to impossible. Not even the late George Steinbrenner would be willing to spend the money necessary to keep this staff together.
Back in 2013 when Matt Harvey was becoming one of the best pitchers in baseball, Mets fans would cheer “Harvey’s Better!” when Harvey faced Strasburg. They were right, and despite Harvey’s early season struggles, they are still right. Harvey has a better career ERA+ and FIP than Strasburg. Accordingly, when’s he’s approaching free agency in 2019, wouldn’t he be worth more money than Strasburg? Boras, who is also Harvey’s agent, will certainly make that case.
If Harvey gets that money, what does that mean for the other Mets starters? Right now, Noah Syndergaard is amongst the best pitchers in baseball at 23 years of age, and he’s only getting better. Steven Matz is a 24 year old lefty, who is 9-1 with a 2.56 ERA in his career. Also, don’t forget Jacob deGrom, who many consider to be the staff’s ace.
If all four of these players get a Strasburg deal, that’s $100 million just to the starting pitching. Keep in mind that doesn’t take into consideration the fact that each one of these pitchers could reasonably seek more when they come up to free agency.
As per Spotrac, the Mets payroll is at $131 million. That would mean the Mets would have $31 million to spend on the other 21 players. With that $31 million, the Mets will also have to find money to sign Jeurys Familia and Michael Conforto to their own lucrative contract extensions. By the way, Conforto is also represented by Boras.
Unfortunately, re-signing all of these players simply isn’t feasible. Deep down, we all knew it. The Stephen Strasburg signing only confirmed it.
Last time Jacob deGrom started a game in Dodger Stadium, it was Game 5 of the NLDS. That entire night deGrom was on the ropes. He didn’t have his best stuff. However, he fought through it seemingly with nothing but guile.
Tonight was eerily reminiscent of that night.
The Dodgers were hitting deGrom hard. The lefties were hitting him especially hard. The Coward and Corey Seager led off the game with opposite field doubles in the first. Utley scored on Seager’s double, and Seager scored on an Adrian Gonzalez sac fly. It was 2-0 after one. deGrom would be in and out of trouble most of the game, but the Dodgers wouldn’t score another run.
Part of that was the Mets playing some real good defense behind deGrom. In the second, David Wright dove and stopped a would be Yasiel Puig RBI single. Wright made a poor throw allowing Puig to reach first safely, but the run did not score. In the fourth, Asdrubal Cabrera reached behind him on a ball that ricocheted off the glove of deGrom, made a nice stab, and barely threw out Utley. Eric Campbell made a nice stretch on the play. In the fifth, Cespedes did this:
Yoenis Cespedes' throw to nail Adrian Gonzalez reached 91.1 mph and covered 232 feet, according to Statcast.
— Andrew Simon (@AndrewSimonMLB) May 11, 2016
Overall, deGrom would pitch seven innings allowing eight hits, two earned, and no walks with four strikeouts. Unlike last time, he handed the ball off to the Mets bullpen instead of Noah Syndergaard.
Unfortunately, deGrom got a no decision because Alex Wood didn’t repeat his NLDS performance. He would only allow four hits, two runs (one earned), and two walks with nine strikeouts. In the NLDS, he only went two innings allowing four hits, four earned, and this:
The Mets had no bat flips off Wood. Instead, the Mets would need some help from Utley to score. It was quite ironic how skittish Utley was around second base in the third inning. With Cespedes on first, Wilmer Flores hit a ball up the middle. Utley made the snag, but he flipped it to no one. No, it’s not Seager’s fault for failing to cover second. It’s Utley’s fault because he’s pure evil. The ensuing batter, Michael Conforto, hit the ball to Utley, who threw a potential double play ball into left field. Cespedes would score on the play. Flores would later score on a Kevin Plawecki RBI single.
The game would eventually become a battle of the bullpens, and surprisingly, the Mets would lose despite having the much better bullpen. Hansel Robles gave up a two out walkoff homerun to Trayce Thompson. The Mets lost 3-2. It snapped the Mets three game winning streak.
Game Notes: Terry Collins had Lagares in RF because he apparently hates good defensive OF alignments. Plawecki is heating up and finally taking advantage of his opportunity. Both Lagares and Cespedes slipped on first base on pickoff attempts. Lagares slipped off leading to an out. Cespedes twisted his ankle but stayed in the game. Cabrera was hit by a pitch for the fifth time this year.
The Mets have an important decision to make. With them starting a series tonight against the Dodgers, they will have to decide if they want to retaliate against Chase Utley or not.
With Ruben Tejada playing for the Cardinals now, it’s not a clear cut decision. The Mets don’t have to stand up for their teammate. Tejada’s long gone. Still, they may want to send Utley and the rest of the National League a message that they will not tolerate dirty play. They will stand up for their guys no matter where they play. Either direction the Mets go, there’s no wrong answer.
The only thing the Mets can’t do is pull a Shawn Estes. If you’re going to hit him, you have to hit him.
The Mets don’t appear weak if they decide not to hit Utley. They appear weak if they go to hit Utley, and they miss him. If Utley plays tonight, Steven Matz either has to stick one in his rear end or move on. If Utley sits, the decision will fall on Jacob deGrom‘s shoulders. If Utley pinch hits tonight, the game situation will have to dictate matters. Utley already cost the Mets one game. He’s not worth another one.
No matter what happens, the Mets just need to be decisive about it. Hit Utley, don’t hit Utley. Just don’t miss him. This Mets team is intimidating. The Mets can little afford to take some of that intimidation factor away by missing Utley.
Simply put, it was that kind of night for the Mets:
For a long time, it appeared that Colin Rea was going to pitch the first no-hitter in Padres history. He was mostly shutting down the Mets. The only Met who really hit him well was Curtis Granderson, who was robbed not once (as you can see above), but twice. However, with two outs in the seventh, Yoenis Cespedes singled putting an end to the no-hit bid.
In the ninth, Granderson lead off the ninth with a homerun to dead center. Jay wasn’t getting to that one. The homer knocked Rea out of the game. Up until that point, Rea had only allowed two hits and one walk with five strikeouts.
Rea was relieved by Brad Hand. He would allow a two run homer to Cespedes. What was a 5-0 cruise control win turned into a 5-3 lead necessitating the Padres closer, Fernando Rodney enter the game. Rodney would shut the door on the Mets rally and earn the save.
Rea was the real star of the game going 9+ innings allowing three hits, one earned, and one walk with five strikeouts.
Rea’s battery mate, Mets killer Derek Norris, helped Rea get the victory. Despite coming into the game with a .138 average, he teed off against the Mets’ pitching. He would go 3-3 with a walk, double, homerun, two runs scored and an RBI. He was hitting like there was a one hour rain delay and Terry Collins left Jeurys Familia out there.
In truth, the Padres all teed off on the Mets pitching. They would score five runs on 11 hits. Six of those eleven hits would go for extra bases. The two homers were hit by Norris and Wil Myers.
Most of the damage was done against Jacob deGrom, who was once again in the 93 MPH range with his fastball. He pitched five innings allowing eight hits, three earned, and one walk with only two strikeouts. He wasn’t missing bats, and he was getting hit hard. Logan Verrett came in and helped the bullpen a bit by throwing two innings of relief. While Verrett was luckier than deGrom, he got hit hard as well. His final line was two innings, three hits, two runs (one earned), no walks, and three strikeouts.
Most will point to the long flight as the reason for the Mets loss. Maybe. It’s also possible they ran into a pitcher that had everything working. It’s just time to turn the page and get ready for tomorrow night’s game, or tonight’s game for those Mets fans on the East coast.
Game Notes: While the Padres are the only MLB team without a no-hitter, the Mets are still the franchise with the most games played before pitching their first no-hitter.
It’s that time of the season most Mets fans dread. It’s that time for the extended west coast trip. The games start at 10:00, and you are either dozing off at the end of the game, or you’re exhausted the next morning.
We didn’t feel that way the Mets last road trip. Coincidentally, the first (and only) game of that road trip was also started by Jacob deGrom. Some of you refer to it as Game 5 of the NLDS. Others refer to it as “The Murphy Game.” Each and every Mets fan was treated to an absolutely gut wrenching instant classic game. The Mets won that game and the NLDS. Not one Mets fan fell asleep during that game. The adrenaline of that win carried Mets fans through the next day. Actually, the adrenaline from that game carried the Mets and Mets fans through the NLCS and into the World Series.
So tonight, hang in there if you can. You never know what amazing things you’re going to see night in and night out with the Mets dangerous lineup and rotation. Last time, it was the NLDS. Who knows what’ll be tonight
Today is Star Wars Day (May the Fourth – get it?). In celebration of the day, here are the Mets alter egos from Episode VII: The Force Awakens:
Yoenis Cespedes – Poe Dameron
- Both Poe and Cespedes were renown for their incredible air power (Cespedes- HR, Poe – pilot). Both were thought to be gone only to return to the joy of everyone. We now know victory is certain.
Matt Harvey – Kylo Ren
- Both were once the most powerful apprentices only to have a younger one with long hair and more powers usurp them. Despite their most recent losses, they will be heard from again.
Noah Syndergaard – Rey
- Both were lost in the desert (Thor – Vegas, Rey – Jakku). Neither knew when they were going to be able to find their next lunch. Both are extremely powerful and are only now starting to realize it.
Michael Conforto – Finn
- Neither were supposed to be here. Neither were supposed to show any signs of greatness. Instead, they broke the mold and carved out a new path for themselves.
Curtis Granderson – Han Solo
- They’ve been around a long time, but they are still as cool as ever. It may be surprising, but they are in the thick of things like they always were. The only problem is there are some young upstarts (Granderson – Conforto, Han – Kylo Ren), who may push them aside. However, before that time comes, they will be heard from again.
Bartolo Colon – Chewbacca
- All these years later, they may be a step slow, but they still are large and in charge. One moment you’re questioning what something so old can do to you. The next, you’re getting your arm or bat taken from you.
Captain David Wright – General Leia Organa
- Years ago, they thought they had accomplished it all as the young, brash good looking people they were. Unfortunately, they didn’t. There’s still more work to be done. The difference is now they have to be the leaders and show a new generation how it’s done.
Logan Verrett – BB8
- Both are taking over for someone else’s role (Verrett – Sean Gilmartin, BB8 – R2D2), and they are performing admirably.
Zack Wheeler – R2D2
- Both are sitting around, shut down, but both still have a very important role to play.
Jacob deGrom – C3PO
- Both have problems with their arms (deGrom – decreased velocity, C3PO – it’s red) and no one knows how it happened. No worries. They’re back and better than ever.
Dan Warthen – Maz Kanata
- Both seem to have the secrets needed to unlock people’s secret powers and lead them on the path to greatness. Plus they kinda look alike.
Terry Collins – Admiral Ackbar
- Both seem like this has all passed them by, but they have returned. They came back and led their people to great victories (Collins – NL, Ackbar – blowing up the Starkiller Base). Now if only Collins had screamed, “It’s a trap!” in Game 5 of the World Series . . . .
Lucas Duda – Captain Phasma
- Their roles are relatively overlooked. Both are large and intimidating presences that can destroy you in the blink of an eye.
Juan Lagares – Snap Wexley
- Both have been here since the new generation’s fight began, but they’ve been pushed aside by Poe/Cespedes who gets all the focus and glory.
Mike Piazza – Luke Skywalker
- The time has come where their greatness has now become the stuff of legends. They are now at the shrines where it all began (Piazza – Cooperstown, Luke – first Jedi temple)
Note, there are no Mets compared to Supreme Leader Snoke or General Hux as they just seem pure evil with no chance for hope. With that said, I think there’s enough room here for one more:
Chase Utley – General Hux
- Their sole intent is to destroy everything for their victory regardless of the consequences. Actually, that’s not true. The more amoral pain and violence inflicted the better. The good news is that no matter what they do, they will ultimately fail.
During MLB Tonight, former players were asked to compare themselves to current major league players. During John Smoltz‘s segment, he compared himself with a Mets pitcher who had Hall of Fame talent . . . Zack Wheeler.
During his breakdown, Smoltz noted he and Wheeler have both had Tommy John surgery. He also broke down how both he and Wheeler had the inverted W (which is really an M) and had the same landing point. There’s another comparison Smoltz failed to mention. They were both overshadowed by other Cy Young/Hall of Fame caliber pitchers in the same rotation.
Just like Smoltz was overshadowed by Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, Wheeler has become overshadowed by Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. Some would even argue he’s been surpassed by Steven Matz.
For Smoltz, it didn’t matter he was overshadowed. He built himself a Hall of Fame career. He was 213-155 with 154 saves, a 3.33 ERA, and a 1.174 WHIP. He won a Cy Young Award and was an eight All Star. He was an incredible postseason pitcher taking his game to the next level. He was 15-4 with a 2.67 ERA and a 1.144 WHIP.
Now, Wheeler is not on this level. So far in his career, he’s 18-16 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.339 WHIP. That doesn’t mean he can’t improve. He’s a four pitch pitcher with a 96 MPH fastball and a 89 MPH slider. He’s got the stuff to dominate. He just needs better control and pitch location. Once he does that, the results will come.
All Wheeler had to do is make adjustments. As Smoltz noted in the segment, he consistently made adjustments in his career to get better. With each adjustment, Smoltz would improve.
Making the right adjustments is the final piece to the puzzle. If he can do it, he can have a long dominating career like Smoltz. The awards and accolades will come no matter how much another ace overshadows him.
After last season, you would want to believe that the Mets wouldn’t want to underestimate their own pitching prospects and expose them to the Rule 5 draft.
The Mets got very, very lucky with Logan Verrett. Everyone underestimated him. Perhaps it was a result of a low 90’s fastball. Perhaps it was because he relies on control, changing your eye level, and working both sides of the plate rather than blowing a 100 MPH fastball by you like Noah Syndergaard.
In any event, the Orioles decided he was worthy of a Rule 5 pick but not worthy of making their Opening Day roster. The Rangers scooped him up and decided after six games he couldn’t help them. He was returned to the Mets. He pitched well out of the bullpen and in spot starts. This year he’s made two spot starts and hasn’t allowed a run in 12 innings. The Mets needed him more than they ever knew. Fortunately for the Mets, the Orioles and Rangers never realized what they had in Verrett. The Mets got very lucky.
This year the Mets may not be so lucky with Matt Bowman.
Bowman was taken by the Cardinals in the Rule 5 draft. Partially due to Jordan Walden opening the year on the DL, Bowman made the Opening Day roster. So far this year, Bowman has appeared on five games pitching 6.2 innings. He has a 1.35 ERA and a 0.900 WHIP. He’s predominantly throwing a 93 MPH sinker. He mixes in the occasional slider (88 MPH) and splitter (82 MPH). It’s a short sample size, but Bowman looks good out of the bullpen. There’s no reason to believe the Cardinals will let him go.
The head scratching part was there was no excuse for why the Mets let Bowman become a Cardinal. The Mets had roster space. They could’ve protected Bowman. To make matters worse, they lost what appears to be a good bullpen piece. How did this happen?
In answering, this question it is important to note teams typically keep a roster spot open so they can make a pick in the Rule 5 draft in the event there’s a player out there who can help them. It’s how the Mets acquired Sean Gilmartin last year, and he became a valuable part of the bullpen. So in reality, the question was who should the Mets have left off the roster in place of Bowman.
The Mets did subsequently lose Kirk Nieuwenhuis on waivers. The Mets traded Darrell Ceciliani for cash. Carlos Torres and Ruben Tejada were initially offered contracts only to subsequently be released. The Mets also could’ve realized what they had and did the unconventional and just put Bowman on the roster barring them from making a Rule 5 draft pick. The Mets didn’t. Instead, they exposed Bowman in the draft in the oft chance they could’ve found someone of his caliber in the Rule 5 draft. How did this happen?
Simply put, like Verrett, Bowman didn’t have lights-out stuff. He is a four pitch pitcher that was projected to be, at best, a back of the rotation starter or bullpen arm. He really regressed his first full year in AAA. In 2014, he was 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.294 WHIP in six starts and one relief appearance. In 2015, he made 26 starts and two relief appearances. Bowman would finish the year 7-16 with a 5.53 ERA and a 1.679 WHIP. Entering the 2015 season, he was seen as a back of the rotation starter or a bullpen arm. His 2015 season reasonably cast doubt on those projections. At age 25, it appeared like the former 13th round draft pick’s development had stalled.
It didn’t, and it shouldn’t be surprising as Bowman has looked for ways to improve. He has tried to emulate Tim Lincecum‘s delivery. While in college, he studied Sabermetrics, and he has sought to use it to find ways to improve. Basically, there’s no rock this former 13th round pick will leave unturned to he better. He’s built himself into a major league pitcher.
However, Bowman is pitching for the Cardinals, and the Mets have nothing to show for it. Worse yet, the Mets could’ve used him. With Jacob deGrom‘s lat injury (and problems with his son), Verrett was thrust into the starting rotation. Rafael Montero was recalled to help in the bullpen, but Collins has been loathe to use him.
Perhaps Collins would’ve trusted Bowman and allowed him to pitch. Unfortunately, we will never know. The Mets will not get lucky with a Rule 5 pick returning to the organization. Bowman is a Cardinal likely never to return.
Editor’s Note: this article was first published on metsminors.net
He could break Anthony Young‘s consecutive games lost streak. He could lose more games than Roger Craig and Jack Fisher. He could allow more earned runs than Craig. He can walk more batters than Nolan Ryan. He can become a bad pitcher overnight and seem like he doesn’t care like Oliver Perez. None of this matters.
Jacob deGrom is off limits in 2016.
It’s tough enough to be a new father. It’s tougher to be on the road all of the time. It’s impossible when your child is sick. Even though he may never need it, deGrom gets each and every benefit of the doubt. He’s Teflon this year. No groaning. No booing. Nothing but cheers and appreciation.
Jacob deGrom has already earned this right for being a terrific Met. Fans should never doubt he’s giving it their all even if his personal life may be preventing him from doing so. Mets fans are only permitted to cheer for deGrom this year.
This cheers can start now with his son hopefully being discharged today.