Jacob deGrom
With 14 games remaining in the season, the New York Mets are seven games back in the loss column of the Atlanta Braves for the division, and they are six in the loss column back of the St. Louis Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot. Long story short, the postseason is a near impossibility, and yet, a path actually remains.
The Cardinals, despite being red hot, have a difficult end of the season. They play seven more against the Milwaukee Brewers, and they have a pivotal series against the San Diego Padres this weekend. Now, the Cardinals are aided by having seven games against the Chicago Cubs to offset some of that.
The Cincinnati Reds have the easiest path and seem well poised to grab the second Wild Card. Putting aside three against the Los Angles Dodgers, they play the Pittsburgh Pirates six times and the Washington Nationals three times. Yes, they do have three against the Chicago White Sox, but the White Sox have already rapped up the division and are really getting ready for the postseason.
Going back to the Padres, it is hard to see how they’re not done. After the Cardinals, they play the San Francisco Giants six times and the Los Angeles Dodgers three. Now, this is where things get a bit interesting for the Mets. The Padres do host the Braves for a west coast series.
The Braves do not have an easy end of the season schedule. They’re heading out for a late in the season west coast trip. First is the Giants, and then after a respite against the Arizona Diamondbacks, they have a four game set in San Diego. They then end the season at Citi Field. The Mets mission is to somehow get to that last weekend at least three back in the loss column.
It’s not an easy road. The first thing which really needs to happen is a pair of sweeps. The Giants need to sweep the Braves, and the Mets need to do the same to the Philadelphia Phillies. For the Mets, that’s much easier said than done with the Phillies having Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Kyle Gibson lined up. There’s also the matter of Bryce Harper, who is playing at an MVP level.
After a pair of sweeps, the Mets would be four back in the loss column with 11 to play. In that stretch, they’d have to finally take care of the Miami Marlins in a pivotal September series. They’d have to bury a reeling Boston Red Sox team in Fenway Park, and they’d have to hold their own against the Milwaukee Brewers.
In many ways, the Mets season will hinge upon their play against the Marlins and Brewers. It may also hinge on their ability to get something, anything from Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom at the end of the year. Looking at this, you may be very well inclined to say the Mets really have no shot.
The honest answer is there isn’t much of one, but in some bizarre way, there is still a realistic (albeit arduous) path to the postseason. All we can hope for at this point is the Mets are up for this challenge. The Mets team we saw play the Yankees were, but the one who played the Cardinals weren’t. We’ll find out which team we’re getting when Taijuan Walker squares off against Wheeler.
Carlos Carrasco was really good, and he gave a glimpse into what a healthy 2022 season could be for him. Over 7.0 innings, he allowed two runs on three hits.
Past that, you really don’t want to know. That said, you can probably guess right.
There was the inability to hit with the bases loaded. A good reliever suffered from bad luck.
The Mets also completely overreacted to the left-handed starting pitcher. As we’ve seen previously, this resulted in having better pinch hitters. But, whatever at this point.
We can hear Jacob deGrom started throwing. Noah Syndergaard is on a rehab assignment where he can’t throw a breaking pitch.
All this does is create the illusion of hope for a team who went 2-11 against the Giants and Dodgers. They can try to sell seven of those 11 games were one run games, but being honest, those one run games were about the Mets throwing away chances to win those games on multiple occasions.
Maybe the Mets go on a run. Maybe they don’t. Whatever the case, something is broken here. Luis Rojas will be blamed, but it’s not his fault. This is on the players and front office.
The New York Mets offense has been dreadful lately. With that being the case, you can never quite tell if it’s the offense or the opposing pitcher.
Because the Los Angeles Dodgers started Walker Buehler it’s easy to concede it was the starting pitcher. After all, Buehler is arguably the current NL Cy Young favorite. Despite that, the Mets almost got him.
The Dodgers had jumped out to a 3-0 lead with Trea Turner being a pest. In the first, he led off the inning with a double, tagged up on a fly out, and scored on a Justin Turner RBI ground out.
In the third, Turner he hit a one out single and would score on a Max Muncy double. After Turner walked, Corey Seager hit an RBI single giving the Dodgers a 3-0 lead.
That would be the last time a Dodger reached base. Carlos Carrasco settled in, and he would have his finest start since coming off the IL. It was the first time he went five innings, he struck out a season high six, and he seemingly started figuring stuff out.
After Carrasco, the Mets bullpen did their job putting up zeros. That kept the Mets in the game, and a Pete Alonso fourth inning solo shot had the Mets trailing 3-1 entering the eighth.
Pure power. ? #LGM pic.twitter.com/5I7BwXTM4C
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 21, 2021
That eighth inning set umpiring back decades, and you could actually argue putting players on the honor system would be better.
Patrick Mazeika got it started with a single. Brandon Nimmo followed with a one out single. They’d both advance on. Buehler wild pitch during the Jeff McNeil at-bat.
That McNeil at-bat is where home plate umpire Nestor Ceja which would’ve left Eric Gregg scratching his head. McNeil appeared to work out a walk loading the bases. That was until Ceja called a pitch a foot off the plate a strike.
Yeah…about that… pic.twitter.com/rzyA5f6Wis
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 21, 2021
That bogus strikeout was the difference between bases loaded one out and two on with two outs. It would make a huge difference.
It was Alonso driving in another run with an infield single pulling the Mets within 3-2. Problem is it shouldn’t have been a single.
Good catch from SNY broadcast: Alonso's infield single appeared to hit his foot in the box, which would have rendered it foul: pic.twitter.com/Ie99PAaL2m
— Tim Britton (@TimBritton) August 21, 2021
Alonso who has a ton of hard hit outs lately got some assistance from his cleat. On the subject of Ceja, he had called a foul off Jonathan Villar‘s foot when the ball easily cleared his foot.
With Michael Conforto due up, the Dodgers brought in Alex Vesia. In what was a great 10 pitch at-bat, Conforto drew a walk. Unfortunately, this meant J.D. Davis came up with the bases loaded.
Davis would strike out. It was the fifth time Davis struck out with the bases loaded, and he has yet to get a hit in that situation. It’ll be interesting to see how he blames that on Alonso.
After Kenley Jansen made quick work of the Mets in the ninth, the Mets fell to two games under .500 and six games behind the Braves. There are just no words for that right now.
Game Notes: James McCann and Jake Reed were put on the IL. Geoff Hartlieb and Yennsy Diaz were recalled. Jacob deGrom was transferred to the 60 day IL.
It’s really unfair to say the New York Mets season hinged on one game. After all, there’s still 45 games remaining, and we’ve seen crazier stuff happen.
That said, the Mets showed us nothing in this pivotal game against not just the Los Angeles Dodgers, but also former division foe Max Scherzer. Absolutely nothing.
The end was quick with the Dodgers jumping all over Carlos Carrasco. Justin Turner and Will Smith homered in the first giving the Dodgers a 3-0 lead.
In the second, Trea Turner doubled home a run, and Max Muncy hit the first of his two homers in the game. After two, it was 6-0.
Being honest, if Jacob deGrom is done for the year, and he very well might, the Mets are going nowhere without Carrasco. Carrasco hasn’t seemed ready since returning from injury. He’s yet to hit five innings, and this is his second straight start under three innings.
For the first of many times in the game, the Mets had a chance to get back into the game. That’s when Luis Rojas made what could be a fireable decision.
With the Mets down six in this game, about to be swept, and with the Phillies and Braves having won, Rojas sent Carrasco to the plate with two on and one out.
What makes this decision all the worse was he was lifting Carrasco anyway. Rojas would explain he had a short bench and didn’t want to go through it.
To that, it should be noted Brandon Drury pinch hit in the eighth and stayed on to pitch the ninth. As bad as that may seem, when Drury wasn’t getting out of the inning, Kevin Pillar came off the bench to relieve him.
That’s right. For the first time in Mets history one position player relieved another on the mound.
That’s basically how to get to down six with a chance to pull closer in the second to a 14-4 loss. What makes it even worse is how the Dodgers just begged the Mets to get back into the game.
While the Dodgers had just one error, they had gaffes all over the field. Dodgers relievers walked three and the ERAs of the relievers they used were 8.22, 6.64, and 9.53.
In the end, the Mets were 0-for-12 with RISP stranding 10 base runners. Really, this isn’t new. That’s the story of the 2021 Mets offense.
This is a team who showed their competing the first two days was more fluke than talent. They can’t get the big hit. They’re inability to take advantage of chances. They get blown out on national television after the Braves and Phillies have won.
They’re now heading out to California to play against the San Francisco Giants and Dodgers. Compounding the level of competition was the Mets being a horrendous road team.
Maybe they’ll shock us over the next week and final month of the season. That would be great. However, if we’re being honest, without magic, the Mets appear like they’re done and won’t be winning the division.
Watching that Field of Dreams Game, you couldn’t help but be overtaken by how extraordinary it was. The players coming out of the cornfield. The views on TV. The game. All picture perfect.
What raised the game to another level was the game itself. Getting huge homers from legends like Tim Anderson, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton elevated that game. You can argue they’re not legends, but what they did on the field will elevate them to that status as we’ll be talking about it forever.
"It's over." – @TimAnderson7 ? #MLBatFieldofDreams pic.twitter.com/ViiJ7Yh7uA
— MLB (@MLB) August 13, 2021
Whether you liked the movie, or not, there’s no denying there’s some magic to seeing the game there. That’s because the field is about the magic of baseball.
Put aside the hand wringing over Shoeless Joe and the Black Sox. Part of the magic and mystique was seeing the all-time greats emerge from the cornfield. There were players like Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, and other legendary all time greats – just not Ty Cobb.
There was a magic to seeing those players emerge from the cornfield and play. There was magic seeing the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees emerge in the Field of Dreams Game, but it meant something extra to see players like Judge and Stanton.
There can be an argument to rotate this game to other teams for the experience. There’s some problems there. First off, it’s not just the same the second go-round.
Due to the book and movie, the White Sox should also be taking part. After all, a large part of it is it’s their story. Mostly, you’re going to miss the opportunity to see some of the true greats emerge from that cornfield.
We should be seeing Mike Trout and Jacob deGrom. Without a doubt we need to see other future Hall of Famers like Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, Francisco Lindor, Buster Posey, and many more. Essentially, what you need and want is all of the greats of the game emerging from the cornfield like in the movie.
The best way to accomplish that is an All-Star Game, and what an All-Star Game it would be.
Instead of the awful uniforms from this year, Nike can design the throwback (or for newer teams throwback feel) jerseys. Instead of seeing players looking for reasons to opt out, you may find those same players pushing up get in and participate.
You can even expand it. Each team could send a living legend to take part in the festivities and emerge from the cornfield. You can see Johnny Bench, Ken Griffey, Jr., Willie Mays, Mike Piazza and other living Hall of Famers. Invite them all to come and be a part of what could be the greatest event in all of pro sports.
This could be pure magic. It could be all that we love about what makes baseball great. It can all we love about it. You will get the entire sports world excited, and you will make new fans.
Yes, there are obstacles. There are All-Star Games already assigned. Certainly, you can overdo it by making it a yearly event.
However, if you do it just right, say one or twice a decade, it will be perfect just like how baseball can be perfect. This can be the best thing to ever happen to the sport in years. Hopefully, it will happen.
When trying to digest and assess how the New York Mets went from in control for the division to second place in a dogfight, there’s a lot of areas you can analyze. When this happens, there are some issues.
Assuredly, the injuries to Jacob deGrom and Francisco Lindor are devastating. The struggles of players like Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil don’t help.
They don’t hit with RISP and sometimes not at all. Their depth across the board has been tested and exposed. If you pinpoint these, you’re not wrong, but there’s a bigger issue.
The 2021 New York Mets are a horrible road team.
Just dreadful.
So far, the Mets have a 23-35 (.403) road record. No other team with a record over .500 has been anywhere near this bad on the road. This is a road record more indicative of the Chicago Cubs, who traded Javier Báez and Trevor Williams to the Mets at the trade deadline.
This isn’t just because of injuries. It happened right out of the gate. They lost their opening series at the Phillies. After winning a series in Colorado, they were swept in Wrigley.
So far, the Mets have played 20 road series. They’ve lost 11, and out of those 11, they were swept twice. They lost three out of four three times. What’s incredulous is that came against the Washington Nationals, Pittsburg Pirates, and Miami Marlins.
The Mets have one just six road series with one of those coming against the Yankees. It shouldn’t be discounted as happening in New York because of their Subway Series history. That said, there may be something to just being home and that routine.
The biggest reason could be the pitching. While the Mets pitchers are dominant at Citi Field with a 3.03 team ERA (third best in the majors), they’re poor on the road. That road ERA rises to 4.39.
Combine that with the Mets actually hitting worse on the road (90 wRC+) than at home (100 wRC+), and you have what looks like a second division team on the road.
The question is what this means for the Mets chances of winning the division. On that keep in mind, they’re tied in the loss column meaning they’re effectively tied for the division lead.
They have 48 games remaining. Of that 48, half of them are on the road. If they keep the same road winning percentage, that drops their record from 59-55 to 69-69.
As such, if they want to win 90 games, they’ll have to finish the season 21-3 at home. The near impossibility of doing that is magnified by the Mets still needing to host the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, and New York Yankees.
This means if the Mets want a road to the postseason, they’re going to have to be better on it. They won’t have an easy path facing the Giants and Dodgers on the road next week with a series against the Boston Red Sox on the horizon.
It’s difficult, but so is winning a World Series. If the Mets want to do that, they’re going to have to earn their way there. The talent is here. Lindor and Noah Syndergaard aren’t too far away.
This Mets team is good. They’ve already proven they can beat anyone. They now need to prove they can beat anyone anywhere. We have 24 games to see if they can.
While it may not be fair to have expected the New York Mets to start spending like drunken sailors, it was fair to expect significant progress. Frankly, we’re not seeing that entirely.
There’s the caveat the Wilpons never would’ve given Francisco Lindor that extension. They once did it with Johan Santana, but they’ve refused post Madoff.
Things are definitively improved, but it’s really not where it should be. Certainly, someone can say it’s not my money, and that’s true. However, what this ultimately about is winning.
It’s hard to see how the Mets recent decisions are driven by the intent to win. It seems like more penny-wise, pound foolish decisions.
In the Javier Baez trade, the Chicago Cubs paid most of Baez’s salary. With the Cubs kicking in so much money, they got a better prospect in Pete Crow-Armstrong. While the trade may be fair value even without the money, it’s fair to question why the Mets parted with the better prospect instead of adding payroll.
The Mets had the opportunity to add Josh Donaldson and Kenta Maeda. It not only was a move which would’ve significantly improved the Mets World Series chances, but it was all the more necessary with Jacob deGrom injured. They walked away because the Twins weren’t eating enough salary.
Then, they draft Kumar Rocker. The Mets had a handshake agreement if Kumar fell the Mets would draft him and give him a $6 million bonus. That amount plus some injury concerns helped Kumar fall.
Make no mistake here. When the Mets drafted Kumar and when they talked about $6 million, they knew something very likely could pop up on the medicals.
Knowing that, The Mets still went all-in on Rocker. They drafted underslot after Rocker. They had a lot of money remaining in the till, except they didn’t draft a Plan B to sign in the even Rocker didn’t sign. Again, Rocker was the only plan which is a horrendous plan if you’re drafting a guy of questionable health.
Now, Rocker is left figuring out the next step while the Mets pocket the $6 million it promised Kumar and all the savings on the underslot deals. If this was the Wilpons, we’d be screaming about their cheapness and Madoff.
That’s not exactly what’s happening here. Here, the Mets have an owner with the wherewithal to make these deals. He’s just opting not to for various reasons.
In the end, Cohen’s Mets made the same cheap decisions the Wilpons made. The only thing which has changed is the explanation. It’s a matter of “I can’t” to “I could, but I don’t want to do it.” Whatever it is, the result is the same.
So yes, things are better, much better. That said, this Mets team parted with a better prospect to save money, they opted not to eat salary to address an area of need, and they effectively punted the 2021 draft.
Between all of that, and not showing up to score runs against the Cincinnati Reds, this was a bad week, and frankly, it was a bad month. Let’s hope, it doesn’t all equate to a bad rest of the year.
This should’ve been a great day for the New York Mets. The black uniforms were back for limited engagement, Carlos Carrasco was making his season debut, and they added Javier Baez at the trade deadline.
Instead of this being the Yoenis Cespedes celebration with Lucas Duda carrying the Mets to first place, you have to wonder if the Mets are in real trouble.
For his part, aside from surrendering a homer to Jonathan India on his first pitch, Carrasco was terrific. Over four innings, he allowed just that one run on three hits and one walk while striking out four.
It should be noted, part of the reason he gave up one run was a phenomenal play by Luis Guillorme to rob Eugenio Suarez of a would be RBI single.
.@lguillorme13 is pure entertainment. ? pic.twitter.com/4p24B5wMva
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 31, 2021
At that time, the Mets should’ve had a lead. Before Sonny Gray could blink Jeff McNeil doubled home Brandon Nimmo to tie the score. Then, the Mets loaded the bases with no outs.
The promising rally completely fell apart. Michael Conforto struck out in what would be an 0-for-4 night with a golden sombrero and a dip below the Mendoza Line.
Jonathan Villar then hit into an inning ending double play. That was about it for the Mets offense for the night. They wouldn’t get a runner into scoring position until the eighth, and they squandered that opportunity as well.
That wasn’t the case with the Reds. Miguel Castro‘s struggles continued. He allowed a double to India, and Jesse Winker was a Mets killer again driving him home.
Drew Smith‘s long ball troubles continued as he allowed a homer to Joey Votto the following inning. This was the seventh consecutive game Votto homered.
It was still theoretically a game in the ninth as it was only 3-1. That was until the Reds roughed up Anthony Banda in his second inning of work for three runs making it a 6-1 Reds lead.
In the ninth, in what may prove to be his last Mets at-bat, Brandon Drury hit a pinch hit RBI double. It proved to be nothing more than window dressing in the Mets 6-2 loss.
As if that loss wasn’t bad enough, Nimmo was going to be taken out of the game with a hamstring issue resulting from a dividing catch. Jacob deGrom was shut down again with more forearm inflammation. It should also be noted with the Mets falling to add a reliever the bullpen struggled.
All told, even with the Baez addition, this was just about as bad a day as you can get. The Mets looked bad and might be in real trouble soon.
Game Notes: In addition to getting Baez for Pete Crow-Armstrong, the Mets also obtained Trevor Williams. Williams was assigned to Triple-A Syracuse.
When making decisions at the trade deadline, it is not just about where your team is in the standings. It is also about where you are at as an organization. Right now, the Mets are 4.0 games up on the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, two teams who are under .500. As for the organization, well, they are in a much more tenuous spot.
After this season, Michael Conforto, Jeurys Familia, Rich Hill, Aaron Loup, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, and Jonathan Villar will be free agents. After the following season, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Brandon Nimmo, and Kevin Pillar will be free agents. Jacob deGrom can also opt out of his contract, and Taijuan Walker can decline his player option.
Focusing more narrowly, after two years, the Mets could lose 2/3 of their outfield and 4/5 of their starting rotation. They can also lose four key set-up men as well as their closer. Put another way, this team is on the precipice of losing very important pieces of a team which is going to take it to the postseason this year.
Now, this is certainly a much different proposition with Steve Cohen at the helm than it was with the Wilpons. There is an implicit trust Cohen will continue trying to win. However, as we know, you’re not always successful identifying who to keep and who to let go as well as who the right replacements are.
When we look back to the early 90s, the Mets were coming off their best stretch in Mets history. They made the right decision letting Gary Carter and Keith Hernandez go. However, they made some bad calls like thinking Vince Coleman could replace Darryl Strawberry. They over relied on their belief Kevin Elster, Dave Magadan, and Gregg Jefferies could be first division starters. Of course, there was also the Worst Team Money Could Buy.
All told, when the Mets switched from build around a core to replacing and altering the core, things fell apart. We can look at other points in Mets history when that happened. It happened again when the Mets passed on Alex Rodriguez as part of a calamitous offseason after the 2000 pennant. The 2009 Mets made the mistake of keeping Oliver Perez. The 2017 Mets got their money tied up in Neil Walker, and they saw Robert Gsellman and Lugo couldn’t hang as starters for a full season.
In some ways, that leads us to now. The Mets have extremely important decisions to make on who stays and who goes. They need to see who the correct replacements are. From what we’ve see from this front office, we should have faith they are up to the task. That said, we all had very well placed faith in Frank Cashen, and he blew it up.
Seeing where the Mets are, the best decision they can make right now is to absolutely go for it. Yes, that may very well require overpaying for players and rentals. Back in 2015, that didn’t make much sense. It was year one of contending for a young core who was cost controlled. Their decisions, including letting Daniel Murphy walk, turned it into a two year window. That window slammed shut without a World Series.
Right now, the Mets window is definitely open, but it’s being propped open. Without the right options, this window can slam shut after this year. It may well be that after the 2022 season. The Mets definitely need to keep this possibility in mind as they look to add at the trade deadline.
Players like Kris Bryant and Trevor Story dramatically changes the fortunes of this team. The same can be said for a player like Jose Ramirez. It may hurt to overpay for Max Scherzer or another top of the line starter, but imagine a two headed monster of deGrom and Scherzer (and having deGrom insurance) as the Mets look to win a World Series.
Ultimately, the Mets are going to see radical changes to this roster over the next few years. They’re in first place now with a team capable of winning a World Series. They need to make sure they do everything they need to do to get that World Series, or they may be ruing the missed chance for a team in transition over the next few years.
With Jacob deGrom down, and with Carlos Carrasco looking further away than initially hoped, the New York Mets have a real need for a starting pitcher. In fact, at the moment, their rotations is Megill, Walker, Stro, and Who Knows?
So, obviously, the Mets are going to need a starting pitcher, and they are going to need one sooner rather than later. Who they can get, and what the cost will be, is anyone’s best guess.
While we know this is a priority, this is not the only area the Mets need to address at the trade deadline. As a result, they should not and cannot get myopic in their endeavors to improve the team. This is a front office well capable of multitasking, and they are well aware of those needs.
Right now, those needs include pitching in general. While the rotation is getting all the focus, the bullpen needs help as well. Since June 1, the Mets bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball. In fact, they own a 5.21 FIP which is the second worst in baseball. Their 4.69 ERA may only be 13th worst, but that is the worst among any teams currently in a postseason position.
While the bullpen has been a strength early, it has been a liability of late. Part of that is fatigue and players hitting the IL. The other part of it has been Edwin Diaz regressing and starting to resemble the unreliable closer who lost his job in 2019. With that being the case, the Mets need to seriously take a look at adding at least an arm or maybe two.
The other big area of need is third base. Right now, Mets third basemen collectively own a -8 DRS, which is the third worst in the National League. Coincidentally, it is the only position where the Mets own a negative DRS defensively.
Part of the reason is the Mets aren’t playing Jeff McNeil there. Instead, they have asked Luis Guillorme, Jose Peraza, and Jonathan Villar to play out of position. That has yielded poor results. The other problem is J.D. Davis has long proven completely incapable of proving the position. The boiling point on Davis should have been when he literally just stood in foul territory in Pittsburgh when Walker unsuccessfully tried to knock a ball foul.
As we see, the Mets have three real areas of need with the rotation, bullpen, and third base. You can also make the case with Peraza suffering a broken finger, the Mets could afford to add a little more depth to the roster. Overall, if the Mets want to win the World Series, and they have the core to do it, they need to look at more than the rotation.