Francisco Alvarez
Back in 2015, nearly everyone was begging Sandy Alderson to call-up Michael Conforto to help a floundering New York Mets offense. Alderson was stubborn in his not being aggressive with prospects until he couldn’t be anymore. Alderson’s concerns were proven unfounded as Conforto had a 133 wRC+ and a 9 DRS in left field.
In reality, some prospects are just Major League ready much earlier than others, and they don’t necessarily need the reps at the upper levels of the minors. As we saw with the Mets, just allowing your best talent to play at the Major League level can pay dividends as Conforto was an important piece of a Mets team which won the 2015 National League pennant.
That’s not something unique to the Mets. In 2013, the then Florida Marlins needed offensive help, so they aggressively called-up Miguel Cabrera who had only played 69 games in Double-A. Cabrera immediately showed he was ready posting a 106 wRC+. He would hit four homers that postseason including one off Roger Clemens in Game 4 of the World Series.
In 2018, the Washington Nationals needed an outfielder, so they called up Juan Soto who had played just eight Double-A games. Like Conforto and Cabrera before him, Soto was ready posting a 146 wRC+. The Nationals would miss the postseason that year, but the following year, Soto posted the second highest WAR among position players on a team who would win the World Series.
That brings us to Francisco Alvarez.
When Alvarez arrived at Spring Training, he declared his goal was to make the Majors this season. That certainly seemed aggressive for a 20 year old player who has yet to play at the Double-A level. Then again, Alvarez is not like just any other minor leaguer. That was very clear when Alvarez hit a monster home run in Spring Training which impressed even Buck Showalter, who has been around the game as long as anyone:
ALL THE ANGLES OF FRANCISCO ÁLVAREZ'S MOONSHOT pic.twitter.com/hkshf7cDiB
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 25, 2022
That was a 98.7 MPH fastball Alvarez hit 441 feet to the Clover Field scoreboard. As noted by MMO‘s Mathew Brownstein, since the inception of StatCast, “ only 14 players have hit a HR at least 440 feet off a FB that was 98+ mph with an exit velocity of 108+ mph.” That puts Alvarez in a group of players which include Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper.
With Harper, we should note he moved out from behind the plate when drafted in an attempt to make it to the majors quicker. Harper would make his MLB debut when he was 19, just one year older than Alvarez would be during the 2022 season.
That’s the sticking point with Alvarez. His bat is there, but it is going to be his ability to catch which will be what allows the Mets to decide to bring him to the majors or keep him in the minors for further development. On that point, Alvarez has made significant strides, and his framing has been much improved this Spring:
Some Francisco Álvarez framing highlights from last night.
His pre-pitch actions got less noisy over the course of last season and it'll be interesting to watch him behind the plate this year. #Mets pic.twitter.com/K0opqOSJx1
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) March 23, 2022
One other note here with Alvarez is the Mets are not in a great position at catcher. James McCann had a down year at and behind the plate. Tomas Nido is an elite backstop, but his bat is still lacking. Patrick Mazeika is fine depth, but like Nido, he is not much of a hitter.
Should McCann falter or suffer an injury, there is going to be a clear path for Alvarez to get to the majors in short order. Ultimately, his ability to get there is going to be dictated by his continued development as a catcher as well as Alderson and the front office being willing to take the risk like they did in 2015. If everything aligns, we may well see Alvarez become an important piece for a Mets team who can contend for a World Series.
The consensus of people who have done this much longer and better is Francisco Alvarez supplanted Ronny Mauricio as the Mets top prospect. The consensus seems to be they are the top two in the system.
That said, at least here, Matthew Allan should be considered the Mets top prospect. We’re seeing and hearing many of the reasons why this Spring Training.
Matt Allan sets Starlin Castro down on strikes ? pic.twitter.com/U5HC1Nmj5K
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 8, 2021
Before Spring Training, Allan had been at the Mets alternate site at Brooklyn. That’s also where he pitched for the 2019 New York-Penn League Champions.
In that 2019 season, he made a combined six appearances (five starts) for the GCL Mets and Brooklyn. He was 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.452 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9, and a 12.2 K/9.
In the NYPL postseason, he was dominant pitching out of the bullpen. In two games, he pitched 5.0 innings retiring all 15 batters he faced. That included him pitching three innings and picking up the win in the clincher.
⚾️? #Mets NRI Preview: RHP Matt Allan
• Easily the top pitching prospect in the org
• Sat 94-96 mph as an 18-year-old in 2019
• Curve projects as a plus pitch as well
• Improved changeup at Alt. Site in '20
• Could see him at Hi-A Brooklyn in 2021 pic.twitter.com/hwSeBIS922— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) February 16, 2021
In those games, we saw the repertoire and poise which led the Mets to implement their draft strategy to sign him. As per MLB Pipeline, he had a mid to high 90s fastball which he combined with an excellent curve and a change that was a work in progress. He had the size and delivery which portends success as a starter.
As noted by Jacob Resnick of SNY above, Allan improved the change last year. It should come as no surprise that came after getting to work with Jacob deGrom during part of the COVID shutdown last year. In that time, he got to learn from deGrom much in the same way deGrom once got to learn from Johan Santana.
This past offseason, Allan again went to Stetson University to work with deGrom and fellow Stetson alum catcher Patrick Mazeika.
Allan had the opportunity to speak to and learn from the best pitcher in the game. As noted, it helped lead to an improved change. It may also help him in terms of the mental side of the game and preparation. Really with deGrom encouraging him to wear him out with questions, Allan had a real opportunity to hone his craft.
That continued in Spring Training when Allan got to work not only with deGrom but also Marcus Stroman.
Here is Mets prospect Matt Allan, on picking the brains of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and others as a 19-year-old in big-league camp: pic.twitter.com/1xOP8GvR2P
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) February 25, 2021
With Stroman, Allan discussed grips as well as the mental side of the game. Many forget Stroman is a real student of the game, and he’s someone who works harder than anyone to find ways to improve and get batters out. As noted by Allan, Stroman was genuine in helping him improve as a pitcher.
That’s a huge reason why Allan should be considered the Mets best prospect. Yes, he certainly has the natural talent and pure stuff to earn that consideration. However, it’s more than that.
Allan, himself, is working hard and striving to improve. He’s in a very fortunate situation where he has had the opportunity and will continue to have the opportunity to get mentored by deGrom and Stroman.
Taking everything into account, it’s not just Allan’s change which will make considerable strides. He should also in every aspect of his game. Seeing how he and others are investing in him, he has real top of the rotation potential, and seeing his progress that may come far sooner than originally anticipated.
Overall, it’s very fair to consider Alvarez and Mauricio as the Mets best prospects. Still, seeing Allan’s improvement, maturity, and natural talent, he should probably be considered a step ahead thereby making him the Mets best prospect.
The New York Mets were able to absolutely steal Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians. Yes, the Mets gave up real value, but by no means was it commensurate with the return.
There are factors for that including Lindor’s expiring deal and the Mets taking on $34.3 million in salary for 2021 alone. Seeing that could make you believe the Mets could obtain Kris Bryant and his $19.5 million in Bryant’s last year before free agency.
Such optimism is misplaced for a number of reasons. First, the Chicago Cubs are somewhat vacillating between tearing it down and competing in a dreadful NL Central. Mostly, the Cubs aren’t going to let their homegrown superstar, the man who fielded what was the final out of their first World Series in 108 years go at a discount.
If you’re a team like the Mets, the question is how far do you go to get Bryant. The answer should be very far.
Yes, Bryant struggled in 2020. His career low 77 wRC+ was largely due to a mixture of his shoulder and oblique issues and just the truly bizarre nature of the 2020 season.
Keep in mind, there should be some positive course correction with Bryant having a .264 BABIP which is well off his career mark of .339. Of course, part of that was his poor contract numbers. He wasn’t squaring balls up or hitting balls hard.
Again, Bryant dealt with an oblique injury. Presumably, that should not be an issue in 2021. If that is the case, Bryant could return to the player who had a 139 wRC+ over the first five seasons of his career.
That 139 mark bests all Mets hitters over that time frame. In fact, it’s the 17th best in all of baseball and third best at his position. His fWAR over that stretch has him as the best third baseman in the game. Notably, his bWAR has him lower down the list, but that said, he’s still among the best in the game.
Keep in mind, he’s not just a third baseman. He’s also spent time at first and all three outfield positions. This would give Luis Rojas some flexibility both in setting the lineup and late in games.
All told, Bryant would fill a huge hole on the roster, and he arguably becomes the second best player on the roster. Put another way, he makes the Mets a SIGNIFICANTLY better team. He may even make them the World Series favorites.
What do you give up for this? A lot!
Rumors are the Cubs have interest in David Peterson. Honestly, he shouldn’t be the hold-up. Peterson shouldn’t be getting in the way of the Mets and the World Series. That goes double when the Mets can possibly obtain another piece from the Cubs.
Sure, there is a line. There always should be one. That’s likely in the vicinity of Francisco Alvarez and Matthew Allan. Keep in mind as the Mets draw this line, they will receive a compensatory second round pick should Bryant not re-sign (presuming he’s extended a qualifying offer).
At the end of the day, the Mets have to ask who exactly in their system is worth not adding the missing piece to this roster. Which prospect or player should stand in the way of the best infield in all of baseball and quite possibly a World Series.
And that right there is why the Mets should be willing to pay a hefty price for Bryant.
The Cleveland Indians are known to be floating Francisco Lindor, and with this being the Indians, they are looking to probably try to contend while also making any deals. That would make sense given their pitching and their keeping another perennial MVP caliber player in Jose Ramirez.
Still, the Indians want us to believe they are cash strapped and need to move a player like Lindor. Presumably, anyone not named Ramirez or Shane Bieber is available to be traded. If that is the case, the Mets need to push and push hard to get a mega-deal done.
In addition to Lindor, the Indians also have Roberto Perez. He’s a 31 year old catcher who is elite defensively with a still very questionable bat. Perez is a relatively expensive $5.5 million, and he will be a free agent after the season. For a Mets team who needs a starting catcher, Perez would be enticing. He also shouldn’t interfere with the presumed chase for James McCann.
On the pitching front, the Indians have Zach Plesac who was an issue for them in terms of the COVID19 infection. The Indians may be reluctant to move him pre-arbitration, and they should. Still, if there are issues between him and the team, the Mets are in a prime position to grab him.
Looking deeper than Plesac, there are useful bullpen arms like Nick Wittgren and a good fourth outfielder in Delino DeShields. Both players are arbitration eligible and could cost more than the Indians are willing to play them. Depending on a potential deal, the Mets could and should be interested in grabbing them in a potential deal.
In return, well, the Mets have plenty to offer the Indians. Given the glut at first base, the Mets could offer one of Pete Alonso, J.D. Davis, or Dominic Smith. With Davis, the Mets could or should offer both. There is also Brandon Nimmo in the outfield as well as Andres Gimenez, Jeff McNeil, and/or Amed Rosario in the middle infield. Certainly, if you can obtain Perez, the Mets should be willing to move Tomas Nido and/or Ali Sanchez.
If you are going to move from a pool of that Major League talent, thereby freeing up logjams, you can then be in a position to hold onto Francisco Alvarez, Ronny Mauricio, and/or the other Mets top prospects. That said, if the Mets are given a window to extend Lindor, all bets should be off. Looking at Mookie Betts last year, getting a top five player in his prime is a franchise changer, and it could be what the Mets need to get to the World Series.
All told, the Indians have some pieces the Mets desperately need. Between the Mets need to free up their logjams coupled with the Indians purported need to clear payroll and the Mets newfound financial strength, there is real potential here for a mega-deal. Hopefully, the two sides can get together and get it done.
The Mets went into Philadelphia with a chance to make a statement. On the bright side, they made that statement. On the downside, it wasn’t the statement we wanted them to make.
1. This series only further cemented Brodie Van Wagenen as the worst GM in baseball.
2. It was poetic justice that after Van Wagenen chided Zack Wheeler when he signed with the Phillies, Wheeler not only beat the Mets, but he also beat Rick Porcello in the process.
3. Remember when Van Wagenen said the Mets had the deepest rotation in baseball? With Jacob deGrom dealing with a neck injury, Porcello and his 5.76 is now the Mets staff ace.
4. Oh, and Walker Lockett (career 8.66 ERA) and Robert Gsellman (last threw 5+ innings in September 2017) are now locked into the rotation.
5. Steven Matz had three good enough starts to begin the season before pitching terribly in his last three starts. Fortunately for him, the Mets don’t have other options to replace him in the rotation.
6. It’s easy to point fingers at Jeremy Hefner but even a pitching coach with a magic lamp would still be stuck with two incapable starters.
7. On the topic of Van Wagenen’s incompetence, Wilson Ramos has been beyond terrible this year. Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse, he completely whiffed on a tag allowing the game winning run to score.
8. Van Wagenen preached accountability and media access when he took the job. The Mets made Ramos unavailable after that lame tag attempt, and the Mets made every player who would rebut their fabricated version of events when Yoenis Cespedes opted out.
9. There’s a lot wrong with the Mets, but Luis Rojas isn’t one of them. The Mets are not losing games because of him. They’re losing because the GM is horrendous.
10. Knowing that and seeing all that has transpired since, everyone owes Mickey Callaway an apology for how he was maligned.
11. The weekend wasn’t totally lost as Dominic Smith and Luis Guillorme continue to play great.
12. Way too much was made of Drew Smith being optioned. The Mets bullpen has depth at the MLB level, and there were legitimate options in Brooklyn.
13. No, Smith didn’t deserve to be optioned as he pitched well, and yes, Brian Dozier had been terrible, but the Mets have nothing in reserve on terms of MLB caliber hitters.
14. Speaking of the Brooklyn site, the Mets added Francisco Alvarez and Matthew Allan which means they can now be traded.
15. We should be afraid they’ll be traded for pennies on the dollar with that being the defining characteristic of Van Wagenen’s tenure.
16. On the bright side, Van Wagenen is getting exposed, and the Wilpons will sell the team without winning a World Series as majority owners.
17. Mets fans deserve better. Hopefully, we’ll get that instead of getting Alex Rodriguez.
18. The St. Louis Cardinals have played eight games. The Miami Marlins are playing catch-up and have only played 15 games. The Cincinnati Reds aren’t playing games. Naturally, MLB’s response is to loosen COVID19 return to play restrictions.
19. Good for the Cleveland Indians for optioning Zach Plesac and Mike Clevinger to the alternate site after breaking COVID19 protocols. It’s good to see someone in baseball take this pandemic seriously.
20. It’s the centennial of the Negro Leagues, and MLB did not do nearly enough to honor it. That goes double in a year where COVID19 prevented them from honoring Jackie Robinson. Shame on MLB.
Game Recaps
Wilson Ramos Cannot Be Allowed To Cost The Mets Another Game
Mets Lose Same Way They Have All Season
Zack Wheeler Comfirms Brodie Van Wagenen Is Worst GM In Pro Sports
Steven Matz was pitching very well until he imploded in the fifth, and it all started because Amed Rosario couldn’t get Didi Gregorius on his swinging bunt against the shift.
If you blinked, you missed a 1-0 deficit turning into an insurmountable 6-0 hole. Things would’ve been worse had Jeurys Familia got two big outs to get the Mets out of the inning.
It was insurmountable partially because Aaron Nola was really good. It was mostly insurmountable because the Mets can’t hit with runners on. Today, they were 0-for-3 with RISP.
One important note here is the Phillies bullpen is a train wreck. That’s the nice way of putting it. Citizen’s Bank Park is a launching pad. Yet, for the season straight night, the Mets did next nothing against them.
If not for Dominic Smith‘s two run homer in the ninth, the Mets would’ve been shut out. It was the fourth straight game Smith homered.
Some good news: Dom Smith is still very good and has homered for the fourth (4th) straight game ? pic.twitter.com/KBRjejxgDV
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 16, 2020
While talking about Mets prospects the team cheated of a real chance, Luis Guillorme was good again going 1-for-3.
But the Mets don’t realize who are and who are not their best players. Case-in-point, Andres Gimenez sat to force feed Rosario and J.D Davis into the lineup.
But we’ve known for a while now, it’s not about what gives the Mets the best chance to win. It’s about Brodie Van Wagenen. It was last night, and it was tonight with the Mets losing 6-2. We’ll probably see it again tomorrow.
Game Notes: Top prospects Matthew Allan and Francisco Alvarez were added to the 60 player pool now making them eligible to be traded.
With Marcus Stroman opting out, Michael Wacha having yet another shoulder injury, and Noah Syndergaard undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Mets need a fifth starter. Based on what we’ve seen from Brodie Van Wagenen, we should not rule out his emptying the farm for that fifth starter.
After all, this was the same GM who has already traded Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Ross Adolph, Anthony Kay, Simeon Woods Richardson, Blake Taylor, and many more prospects to receive nowhere near value in return. Looking at the cumulative, it’s embarrassing how poorly the Mets have done in these trades.
As we saw last year at the trade deadline, the Mets postseason odds don’t matter. He overpaid for Stroman at the trade deadline last year despite the team being six games under .500 and 12.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the division.
Yes, the Mets went on a run, but in the end, it was Van Wagenen’s half measures which kept the Mets out of the postseason. He moved arguably two of his top prospects remaining in the farm system for another starter, but he didn’t back it up by getting a reliever or another outfielder that the team so desperately needed. That was a major reason the Mets fell short.
Based on his track record, we can assume he’ll ignore reason to make a trade for another player. It’ll be a half-measure, and it will further deplete the farm.
Now, this is where some will say teams are not permitted to trade players not in the player pool. This analysis and hope is very short-sighted.
Technically, that is correct. In 2020, teams cannot trade players unless they are part of their designated 2020 player pool. That should give some relief prospects like Mark Vientos, Shervyen Newton, Francisco Alvarez, and Ronny Mauricio won’t be traded.
That is until they’re added to the Mets player pool. As per the rules, the Mets can add players to the player pool as needed. As a result, if a team wants a Mets prospect in exchange for a starting pitcher, all the Mets need to do is add that player to their pool.
It’s only a transaction. There is no requirement the player actually be present at the virtual training site. Much like Jose Bautista two years ago, the Mets can literally pluck a player off their couch and put them on a plane.
So, right now, no prospect is safe. Seeing how the Wilpons and Brodie Van Wagenen don’t remotely care about the future of the franchise as they push to win a World Series before they’re all gone, that goes double.
They’ll grossly overpay for anyone if they think that player gives them even a 1% chance greater of winning the World Series. It’s of no matter to them because they won’t be around while these prospects shine at the Major League level.
In the end, no Mets prospect is safe right now, and the situation grows more dire the longer this team has no fifth starter and languishes in last place in the NL East.
Unless you are the Los Angeles Angels with Mike Trout or maybe the Boston Red Sox with Mookie Betts, no baseball team can definitively say they have a better player on their team than Nolan Arenado. Since 2015, he has been a top eight player in the league in terms of fWAR, and he has been a top six player in terms of DRS.
Arenado has won seven straight Gold Gloves, been an All-Star for five straight seasons, and he has won a Silver Slugger in four of the last five seasons. It should come as no surprise he has been a top five finisher in the MVP voting over that five year stretch.
Arenado has proven himself to be the rare player who has the ability to impact the game in the field and at the plate. He is one of the best in the sport, a future Hall of Famer, and at 28 years old, he is in his prime. When players like this are available, you do everything you can do to acquire them.
That should include the Mets.
If Arenado was on the Mets in 2020, his 5.7 WAR would have been the best on the team. To that end, the Mets have not had a position player have a WAR over 5.0 since Juan Lagares in 2014, and they have not had a position player with a WAR better than Arenado’s 5.7 since David Wright had a 5.9 WAR in 2013.
If you think about it, that’s what Arenado is. Both are Gold Glove caliber and Silver Slugger players who are top 10 players in the sport. The key difference is Arenado is healthy and playing now. When players like Wright come along, and Arenado is that level of player, you do what you can to get him.
When you look at the Mets roster as a whole, the only player they have better than Arenado right now is Jacob deGrom. When you consider deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball right now, and he is signed to a very reasonable contract extension, you cannot trade him for Arenado.
Any other pitcher on the Mets roster, Noah Syndergaard included, can and should be considered in a potential Arenado trade.
As for the rest of the Mets team, you can and should consider trading all of them if the price is right.
Yes, that means you should consider trading players like Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo. It would hurt to lose either player, but you will have one entrenched in one of the corner outfield spots, and you can move Jeff McNeil to LF on a permanent basis to accommodate that loss.
For what it is worth, the Mets should be willing to trade McNeil for Arenado as well. After all, Arenado is a better baseball player than McNeil, and if you’re going to choose between the two as who you want to be your third baseman for the next five years, you are going to chose Arenado.
Finally, yes, you can also consider trading Pete Alonso. If the Mets traded Alonso for Arenado, they still have Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis (who is really only just a first baseman) to play first. At the end of the day, you hate losing Alonso who has proven to be not just a very good player, but also one who has captured the hearts and minds as Mets fans.
That said, Arenado is a better baseball player than Alonso. More to the point, the Mets are a better team with Smith/Davis at first, Arenado at third, and an outfield of McNeil-Nimmo-Conforto than have a team where they either play Jake Marisnick everyday or have a platoon of first basemen in left field.
They’re also a better team with Alonso and Arenado at the corners. To that end, if you can swing a deal without giving up Alonso, or any of their other core players which include Conforto, McNeil, Nimmo, and Syndergaard, you do it. The problem is the Mets don’t necessarily have that farm system after all the damage Brodie Van Wagenen did last offseason.
To that end, if the Rockies want a player the ilk of Francisco Alvarez, Ronny Mauricio, Andres Gimenez, Matthew Allan, Brett Baty, or whomever else the Rockies inquire, the Mets should be willing to listen. Of course, if the Rockies want to go this route, the caliber of Major League player the Mets should be willing to part in such a trade comes down a significant peg from the aforementioned core.
Now, it should be noted Arenado has an opt out after the 2021 season. If you are the Mets, you don’t disrupt your core without getting him to waive that or renegotiate the contract. That is where Steve Cohen and his money should hopefully come into play.
If the Mets can get Arenado to waive his no trade clause and opt in to his contract, short of Jacob deGrom, there is no one the Mets should not discuss in a trade because at the end of the day, the Mets do not have a player as good as the one Nolan Arenado is.