Francisco Alvarez
With the 11th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, the New York Mets selected catcher Kevin Parada out of Georgia Tech. This immediately led Mets fans into speculation Parada was drafted so the Mets could trade for Juan Soto.
It just doesn’t work that way. Put another way, no, Parada was not drafted as a replacement for Francisco Álvarez.
Look, you can understand the Soto excitement. Arguably, the best hitter in the game is on the market after (correctly) turning down a 15 year $440 million extension.
This has led the Washington Nationals to look to trade Soto, who hits free agency after the 2024 season. According to reports, the Nationals see the Mets as a potential trade partner. That should be obvious.
After all, Álvarez is already considered the best prospect in the minors. The Mets also have top 100 prospects in Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Alex Ramirez, and Mark Vientos (depending on your list). Additionally, when he returns from his Tommy John rehab, Matt Allan is anticipated to join those ranks.
Simply put, the Mets have the high-end prospect talent selling teams covet at the trade deadline. Arguably, the Mets could acquire Soto even if they make Álvarez untouchable.
Another factor is Jon Heyman’s report in the New York Post wherein the Nationals may force interested teams to take on Patrick Corbin’s terrible contract. That leaves only a handful of teams who could be in a position to make the deal with Steve Cohen having the deepest pockets.
All told, yes, the Mets have what it takes to get Soto. No, Parada has no bearing on such a deal.
As Mets vice president of amateur and international scouting Tommy Tanous told MMO about draft approach, “The boring answer is you still take the best player available but having all those picks and the pool money there’s plenty of different scenarios you can play around with.”
Honestly, this is how almost all teams approach the draft. That goes double for the Mets. They draft the best player available.
The reason why the Mets drafted Parada? He was the best player available. Keep in mind, no one had Parada falling this far.
For example, Keith Law of The Athletic and MLB Pipeline had Parada going fifth to the Nationals of all teams. Parada falling to 11 was a steal, and the Mets pounced.
Ultimately, that’s the reason the Mets drafted Parada. Really, it had nothing to do with Álvarez.
Consider this. In 2019, the Baltimore Orioles made Adley Rutschman the top overall pick in the draft. Rutschman made his Major League debut roughly three years after being drafted. That’s not atypical.
Álvarez is currently playing in Triple-A Syracuse. With James McCann’s injury, it’s entirely possibly Álvarez could be called up the minute he starts hitting. If he’s not traded, we will definitively see Álvarez in the majors by 2023 at the latest.
If Parada is three years away, he’s not an Álvarez replacement. It doesn’t work that way. The Mets drafted Parada because he miraculously fell to him; not to trade Álvarez.
As an aside, the same can be said for Jett Williams. Williams was drafted 14th overall by the Mets because he was the best player available and not so the Mets could trade Ronny Mauricio.
Yes, it’s very possible the Mets trade Álvarez or Mauricio to Soto. It could be them both plus other pieces while absorbing a bad contract. Soto is 23 and that awesome.
However, there’s no cause and effect here. Parada is a Mets draftee because he was the best player available. It’s really just a coincidence he plays the same position as Álvarez, the best and most coveted prospect in the game.
James McCann is out with an injury, and we have no idea how long it will be. Chances are it may effectively be a season ending injury. That leaves the Mets with Tomás Nido. As we have seen with Nido, he does his job behind the plate, and as a result, the New York Mets have been comfortable using him as their main catcher.
The problem is they haven’t been as comfortable with Patrick Mazeika. That is understandable with Mazeika having a 41 wRC+. With him being an average framer, carrying that bat is a problem. Yes, it is a small sample size, but it’s essentially what Mazeika has been, i.e. a poor man’s version of Josh Thole.
When Mazeika is looked upon as a stopgap, he has been more than fine. However, the Mets need more than that now. After all, the Mets are looking for a catching tandem to take them through what is now a tight NL East race and potentially into the postseason.
Seeing what he did in Double-A, the natural impetus is to renew the calls for Francisco Álvarez. There are many, many good reasons to consider it.
Max Scherzer was impressed with his work behind the plate during his rehab start. There have been more and more people noting the significant improvement he has made. Arguably, the bat is already there, and many Mets fans are looking upon him as being able to have the same type of impact Michael Conforto had in 2015.
None of this should be dismissed outright. It is shouldn’t be dismissed he is right not viewed as the best prospect in the minor leagues. With him, everyone sees a future star, and we have already seen Keith Law of The Athletic drop a Mike Piazza comp on Álvarez with no one thinking it was ridiculous.
That all said, in Triple-A, you see some cause for patience. Over his first five games, he is hitting just .125/.286/.188 with a double and two RBI. He has struck out five times in 21 plate appearances (not bad at all) while drawing two walks.
Yes, this is an extremely small sample size to which no conclusions should be drawn. Rather, we need to use it for perspective.
Álvarez is a 20 year old catcher. He was the youngest player in the Eastern League, and he’s the youngest player in Triple-A. In fact, he’s 6.5 years younger than league average. That will be more pronounced at the Major League level.
That may be a factor why he is not hitting . . . yet. Ultimately, we know he will hit at this level. To that point, just wait for it. It could be a week, month, or in 2023. The Mets don’t know. Whatever the case, they don’t want to rush a player who is not quite hitting yet in Triple-A and then tell him to go out there and hit Major League pitching.
We’ve seen this mistake in the past. The Mets rushed Mike Pelfrey in 2006 because they needed pitching. He wasn’t ready, and you can argue, to a certain extent, it hampered Pelfrey’s development. He became a viable Major League pitcher but nothing more.
We saw the Chicago Cubs do it with Kyle Schwarber in 2015. They needed the bat, so they took him out from behind the plate. Schwarber has hit, but he went from horrendous LF to can’t play first to a DH.
The Mets won’t play Álvarez in the outfield, but rushing him before he is absolutely ready to catch Major League pitching can have negative consequences on a catcher’s career. After all, look at Gary Sanchez‘s career. He went from future superstar to traded to the Minnesota Twins for a Twins salary dump just so Sanchez can be a bad DH.
That’s the Mets current problem. They have a phenom everyone thinks will be an All-Star or more. They see a player who fits a need RIGHT NOW for a team capable of winning a World Series. Yes, if Álvarez is ready, he puts this team over the top, but when he’s not hitting in Triple-A, the risk is too great.
No, the Mets have to hold out for now. At a minimum, let Álvarez get hot in Triple-A, and then, lets have that conversation. Unfortunately, we just cant’ have it right now.
From the rumors, the New York Mets are being threatened for National League East supremacy, but then again the Mets dispatched with another opponent. This time it was the Miami Marlins.
1. It might’ve been Father’s Day Weekend, but Francisco Lindor proved it’s always Mother’s Day. His mom came to the game on Friday, and he hit his first of two homers in the series. After breaking his finger, he seemed understandably off, but this weekend, we saw the real Lindor again.
2. Taijuan Walker has pitched like an ace since Max Scherzer went down. Over his last six starts, he’s averaging 6.0 starts with an increasing strikeout rate. This could be one of the best two year deals in Mets history.
3. The Mets DH situation was a disaster before J.D. Davis got hit on the hand. That could effectively end his season (it did last year), which is going to rob the Mets of a right-handed bat off the bench. And before people start, he wasn’t hitting for power before this hand injury.
4. It seems the DH spot will now fall to Dominic Smith, who faltered earlier, and/or Daniel Palka, who hasn’t played in the majors since 2019. With respect to Smith, the only hope is he begins hitting again with regular at-bats.
5. While Mark Vientos continues to be the best possible DH option, from a purely crazy standpoint, you do wonder if Michael Conforto would be available on a minor league deal. After all, Scott Boras has hinted Conforto may be able to hit this season. It would seem a mutually beneficial arrangement even if there’s a 99% chance Conforto doesn’t play this year.
6. The biggest concern right now is Jeff McNeil‘s hamstring. As Gary Cohen and Keith Hernandez pointed out, he tried to play through a similar injury last year and struggled. Hernandez also noted the flight to Houston won’t help matters. Ideally, the Mets can give him a day or two to get healthy.
7. David Peterson had a much needed good start. That was much needed for him and for the Mets.
8. The fact Seth Lugo was pitching after his two year old just had surgery and his wife is expecting any day now is just remarkable. Given that context and how great he has been as a Met, we can afford him one bad pitch before freaking out.
9. Where is it written in stone the Marlins play their very best against the Mets at all times?
10. Chris Bassitt had a strong start but hit a bump. He is still a part of the solution this season and in the ensuing years.
11. Sandy Alcantara is just that good, and the Marlins have him effectively locked up until 2027. That would be very bad news for the Mets except you know the Marlins will get rid of him well before that.
12. The cavalry seems to be on their way with reports Scherzer could be a week away and James McCann on a rehab assignment.
13. The Mets have effectively shelved Patrick Mazeika, and you have to wonder just how much longer he will be a Met. With every homer from Francisco Alvarez, the chances of his getting designated for assignment increase exponentially because next time there is an injury, Alvarez may very well be called up to stay.
14. The Mets continue to do Josh Lewin dirty. First, he’s replaced by an inexperienced and poor announcer, and then, his podcast is replaced with amateur hour. He and Mets fans deserve much better.
15. Drew Smith is back to being Drew Smith, and as a result, the Mets bullpen is again a strength. That goes double with Adam Ottavino pitching well.
16. Very quietly, Starling Marte keeps getting better and better all season.
17. It’s obvious why we’re not talking about it much, but Pete Alonso‘s defense has really regressed. With the Mets DH options being what they are, you could move Alonso there, but the Mets obviously don’t want to interrupt his Silver Slugger caliber season.
18. Luis Guillorme is just a guy who gets on base and plays great defense. If the Mets cared about that in the past, perhaps they make the postseason prior to this year.
19. On this date last year, the Mets had a 5.5 lead game on the Atlanta Braves. The key differences is that Mets team had a +20 run differential, and this one has a +72. The other key difference is that team lost deGrom, and this one will be getting him back. These are not remotely the same seasons.
20. Interesting to think about, but this upcoming series against the Houston Astros might actually be a World Series preview.
For the first time this season, the New York Mets lost a series. To make matters worse, it was Mets incompetence of the past which came back to haunt them.
1. Paul Sewald is absolutely right. The Mets gave up on him. More to the point, as I’ve pointed out, and as Keith Hernandez and Gary Cohen noted on the broadcast, the Mets completely and utterly botched how they handled him. Sewald absolutely deserved this moment.
2. Sewald was all the more of a debacle when you consider the Mets kept Ryan O’Rourke, Tim Peterson, and Jacob Rhame over him. None of those three pitched past the 2019 season. Sewald is now a very good late inning reliever.
3. It’s not just Sewald, but Chris Flexen where the Mets screw up was the Mariners gain. The good news here is the morons in charge who made those decisions are now gone.
4. The people in charge now get us Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt who were again great in their starts. Much of the Mets success this season is directly attributable to bringing those pitchers onboard.
5. That Patrick Mazeika start behind the plate was rough, and it limited Bassitt to 5.1 innings when he had the stuff to go much deeper.
6. That said the legend of Mazeika grew. Not only did he have the game winning homer, but he also had a key hit in that ninth inning rally which fell short.
7. You cannot have worst at-bats than what Starling Marte and Pete Alonso did with the game tying and go-ahead runs on base than what they did. The Alonso one was even worse considering he got one strike in that at-bat, and he didn’t even swing at the pitch over the heart of the plate.
8. Brandon Nimmo came up huge in that inning with an RBI double. In fact, he’s been great all season and has been the Mets best player. He’s clearly an All-Star, and sooner or later, if he keeps this up, he is going to get MVP consideration.
9. Drew Smith went from impenetrable to allowing runs in consecutive appearances. He will be fine.
10. Carlos Carraso looked bad. While he was worse against the St. Louis Cardinals, he arguably looked worse in this start. Again, he’s been very good for all but two starts, so there is no need to dwell too much here.
11. Good for Adam Ottavino for picked up that win. He’s responded well to that rough patch, and part of the reason is Buck Showalter has been much more responsible in how he uses them.
12. Congratulations to Colin Holderman on his Major League debut. It was rocky, but it was a scoreless inning, and he did flash what could be very good stuff out of the pen.
13. Sewald wasn’t the only pitcher to stick it to his old team. Edwin Diaz struck out all three batters he faced in his only save opportunity in the series. By the way, he’s now played more seasons with the Mets than the Mariners.
14. Joely Rodriguez wasn’t great, and Chasen Shreve allowed homers in consecutive appearances. On that note, Aaron Loup is having another great season. So far, this looks like an unforced error by the Mets, and you do have to wonder how much of that is attributable to the Robinson Cano contract.
15. James McCann being out is going to hurt the Mets. He was great behind the plate, and believe it or not, he was a starting level bat at the position in the majors so far this year.
16. Tomas Nido did step-up in this series actually drawing two walks. To put that in perspective, he drew five all of last season.
17. McCann’s injury is the type which may cost him this year even when he can return. Those hammate bone injuries tend to linger and hamper the ability to hit again. Unfortunately, Francisco Alvarez has been struggling in Double-A putting him even further off the horizon.
18. Francisco Lindor hit a big homer. The Mets need more of that from him.
19. One massive takeaway from this series, even with the series loss, is the Mets beat up on reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. It doesn’t matter if it was an off game or not from Ray, the Mets finally hit left-handed pitching.
20. The Mets were at the Rangers beating the Penguins in Game 7. Perhaps, we will see the Rangers at Citi Field watching the Mets win their own Game 7 this postseason.
Back in 2015, nearly everyone was begging Sandy Alderson to call-up Michael Conforto to help a floundering New York Mets offense. Alderson was stubborn in his not being aggressive with prospects until he couldn’t be anymore. Alderson’s concerns were proven unfounded as Conforto had a 133 wRC+ and a 9 DRS in left field.
In reality, some prospects are just Major League ready much earlier than others, and they don’t necessarily need the reps at the upper levels of the minors. As we saw with the Mets, just allowing your best talent to play at the Major League level can pay dividends as Conforto was an important piece of a Mets team which won the 2015 National League pennant.
That’s not something unique to the Mets. In 2013, the then Florida Marlins needed offensive help, so they aggressively called-up Miguel Cabrera who had only played 69 games in Double-A. Cabrera immediately showed he was ready posting a 106 wRC+. He would hit four homers that postseason including one off Roger Clemens in Game 4 of the World Series.
In 2018, the Washington Nationals needed an outfielder, so they called up Juan Soto who had played just eight Double-A games. Like Conforto and Cabrera before him, Soto was ready posting a 146 wRC+. The Nationals would miss the postseason that year, but the following year, Soto posted the second highest WAR among position players on a team who would win the World Series.
That brings us to Francisco Alvarez.
When Alvarez arrived at Spring Training, he declared his goal was to make the Majors this season. That certainly seemed aggressive for a 20 year old player who has yet to play at the Double-A level. Then again, Alvarez is not like just any other minor leaguer. That was very clear when Alvarez hit a monster home run in Spring Training which impressed even Buck Showalter, who has been around the game as long as anyone:
ALL THE ANGLES OF FRANCISCO ÁLVAREZ'S MOONSHOT pic.twitter.com/hkshf7cDiB
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 25, 2022
That was a 98.7 MPH fastball Alvarez hit 441 feet to the Clover Field scoreboard. As noted by MMO‘s Mathew Brownstein, since the inception of StatCast, “ only 14 players have hit a HR at least 440 feet off a FB that was 98+ mph with an exit velocity of 108+ mph.” That puts Alvarez in a group of players which include Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper.
With Harper, we should note he moved out from behind the plate when drafted in an attempt to make it to the majors quicker. Harper would make his MLB debut when he was 19, just one year older than Alvarez would be during the 2022 season.
That’s the sticking point with Alvarez. His bat is there, but it is going to be his ability to catch which will be what allows the Mets to decide to bring him to the majors or keep him in the minors for further development. On that point, Alvarez has made significant strides, and his framing has been much improved this Spring:
Some Francisco Álvarez framing highlights from last night.
His pre-pitch actions got less noisy over the course of last season and it'll be interesting to watch him behind the plate this year. #Mets pic.twitter.com/K0opqOSJx1
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) March 23, 2022
One other note here with Alvarez is the Mets are not in a great position at catcher. James McCann had a down year at and behind the plate. Tomas Nido is an elite backstop, but his bat is still lacking. Patrick Mazeika is fine depth, but like Nido, he is not much of a hitter.
Should McCann falter or suffer an injury, there is going to be a clear path for Alvarez to get to the majors in short order. Ultimately, his ability to get there is going to be dictated by his continued development as a catcher as well as Alderson and the front office being willing to take the risk like they did in 2015. If everything aligns, we may well see Alvarez become an important piece for a Mets team who can contend for a World Series.
The consensus of people who have done this much longer and better is Francisco Alvarez supplanted Ronny Mauricio as the Mets top prospect. The consensus seems to be they are the top two in the system.
That said, at least here, Matthew Allan should be considered the Mets top prospect. We’re seeing and hearing many of the reasons why this Spring Training.
Matt Allan sets Starlin Castro down on strikes ? pic.twitter.com/U5HC1Nmj5K
— SNY (@SNYtv) March 8, 2021
Before Spring Training, Allan had been at the Mets alternate site at Brooklyn. That’s also where he pitched for the 2019 New York-Penn League Champions.
In that 2019 season, he made a combined six appearances (five starts) for the GCL Mets and Brooklyn. He was 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.452 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9, and a 12.2 K/9.
In the NYPL postseason, he was dominant pitching out of the bullpen. In two games, he pitched 5.0 innings retiring all 15 batters he faced. That included him pitching three innings and picking up the win in the clincher.
⚾️? #Mets NRI Preview: RHP Matt Allan
• Easily the top pitching prospect in the org
• Sat 94-96 mph as an 18-year-old in 2019
• Curve projects as a plus pitch as well
• Improved changeup at Alt. Site in '20
• Could see him at Hi-A Brooklyn in 2021 pic.twitter.com/hwSeBIS922— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) February 16, 2021
In those games, we saw the repertoire and poise which led the Mets to implement their draft strategy to sign him. As per MLB Pipeline, he had a mid to high 90s fastball which he combined with an excellent curve and a change that was a work in progress. He had the size and delivery which portends success as a starter.
As noted by Jacob Resnick of SNY above, Allan improved the change last year. It should come as no surprise that came after getting to work with Jacob deGrom during part of the COVID shutdown last year. In that time, he got to learn from deGrom much in the same way deGrom once got to learn from Johan Santana.
This past offseason, Allan again went to Stetson University to work with deGrom and fellow Stetson alum catcher Patrick Mazeika.
Allan had the opportunity to speak to and learn from the best pitcher in the game. As noted, it helped lead to an improved change. It may also help him in terms of the mental side of the game and preparation. Really with deGrom encouraging him to wear him out with questions, Allan had a real opportunity to hone his craft.
That continued in Spring Training when Allan got to work not only with deGrom but also Marcus Stroman.
Here is Mets prospect Matt Allan, on picking the brains of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and others as a 19-year-old in big-league camp: pic.twitter.com/1xOP8GvR2P
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) February 25, 2021
With Stroman, Allan discussed grips as well as the mental side of the game. Many forget Stroman is a real student of the game, and he’s someone who works harder than anyone to find ways to improve and get batters out. As noted by Allan, Stroman was genuine in helping him improve as a pitcher.
That’s a huge reason why Allan should be considered the Mets best prospect. Yes, he certainly has the natural talent and pure stuff to earn that consideration. However, it’s more than that.
Allan, himself, is working hard and striving to improve. He’s in a very fortunate situation where he has had the opportunity and will continue to have the opportunity to get mentored by deGrom and Stroman.
Taking everything into account, it’s not just Allan’s change which will make considerable strides. He should also in every aspect of his game. Seeing how he and others are investing in him, he has real top of the rotation potential, and seeing his progress that may come far sooner than originally anticipated.
Overall, it’s very fair to consider Alvarez and Mauricio as the Mets best prospects. Still, seeing Allan’s improvement, maturity, and natural talent, he should probably be considered a step ahead thereby making him the Mets best prospect.