Eric Campbell
With the Mets adding Gavin Cecchini to the 40 man roster to sit on the bench as the Mets are chasing down a Wild Card spot, the team had one less decision to make on who should be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft this offseason. Even if the Mets didn’t add Cecchini now, he was going to be added in the offseason. Cecchini is too valuable a prospect, and he would be snatched up immediately in the Rule 5 Draft.
Cecchini was not the only player the Mets were going to have to make a decision on this offseason. In fact, the Mets have to make a decision on 66 different prospects about whether or not they should be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft. Here is a review of some of the more notable Mets prospects that need to be added to the 40 man roster in order to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft:
AMED ROSARIO
SS Amed Rosario (Advanced A & AA) .324/.374/.459, 24 2B, 13 3B, 5 HR, 71 RBI, 19 SB
Yes, if it hasn’t been apparent this entire year, Rosario is in a class all by himself. If he’s not added to the 40 man roster someone is getting fired.
ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE
1B/3B Matt Oberste (AA) .283/340/.409, 21 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 1 SB
One issue that has plagued Oberste his entire minor league career is he has to fight for at bats as he is usually behind a bigger Mets prospect. That has been literally and figuratively Dominic Smith (who is not yet Rule 5 eligible). Oberste was an Eastern League All Star; however, the issue that is always going to hold him back is the fact that he is a corner infielder that does not hit for much power. Most likely, Oberste will not be added to the 40 man roster.
CF Champ Stuart (Advanced A & AA) .240/.314/.349, 12 2B, 7 3B, 8 HR, 34 RBI, 40 SB
Stuart is an elite defensive outfielder that has speed on the bases as evidenced by him stealing 40 bases this season. The issue with Stuart is he is a maddening offensive player. He went from hitting .265/.347/.407 in 71 games for Advanced A St. Lucie to hitting .201/.264/.261 in 43 games for AA Binghamton. While he certainly has the tools to possibly be a big leauger one day, he’s too far away at this point. Also, with teams putting more of a premium on offense than defense, it’s likely he will not be protected, and he will go undrafted.
C Tomas Nido ( Advanced A) .320/.357/.459, 23 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 46 RBI, 0 SB
This year was a breakout season defensively and offensively for the Florida State League batting champion. Normally, with Nido never having played a game in AA, the Mets would be able to leave him unprotected and be assured he wouldn’t be drafted. However, with catcher being such a difficult position to fill, it’s possible a bad team like the Braves takes a flyer on him and keeps him as the second or third stringer catcher all year. It’s exactly how the Mets lost Jesus Flores to the Nationals many years ago.
SP Marcos Molina 2015 Stats (Rookie & Advanced A) 9 G, 8 GS, 1-5, 4.26 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.9 K/9
Molina did not pitch for the Mets organization for the entire 2016 season as he was recovering from Tommy John surgery. The Arizona Fall League will be his first time facing batters in a game since his eight starts for St. Lucie in 2015. It’s likely he will go unprotected and undrafted.
ARMS THAT COULD HELP IN 2017
RHP Paul Sewald (AAA) 56 G, 5-3, 19 saves, 3.29 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 11.0 K/o
In many ways, it is surprising that a Mets bullpen that was looking for an extra arm never turned to Sewald. While he struggled to start the season like most pitchers transitioning to the Pacific Coast League do, Sewald figured it out and had a terrific second half with 10 saves, a 1.85 ERA, and a 0.95 WHIP. Sewald should be protected. In the event he isn’t, he should be as good as gone.
RHP Beck Wheeler (AA & AAA) 47 G, 0-3, 6 saves, 5.98 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 12.1 K/9
Wheeler went unprotected and undrafted last year, and based upon the numbers he put up in his time split between Binghamton and Las Vegas, it appears the same thing will happen this year. The one reservation is like with the Braves interest in Akeel Morris, teams will always take fliers on guys with mid 90s fastballs who can generate a lot of strikeouts. It just takes one team to think they can help him reduce his walk rate for him to go in the Rule 5 draft.
RHP Chasen Bradford (5 saves, 4.80 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) – Bradford regressed statistically from last year in large part because he is a sinker/slider pitcher that pitches to contact. On the bright side, he walks very few batters meaning if you have good infield defense, he will be a successful pitcher for your team. His numbers should scare off a number of teams in the Rule 5 draft just like it did last year.
RHP Ricky Knapp (Advanced A & AA) 25 G, 24 GS, 13-6, 2.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
Knapp started the year in St. Lucie, and he finished it with a spot start in Las Vegas. Knapp doesn’t have any plus pitches, but he gets the most out of all of his pitches because he is excellent at hitting his spots. He is a very polished product that is best suited to being a starting pitcher. Since he doesn’t strike out many batters, teams will most likely pass on him in the Rule 5 draft.
RHP Luis Mateo (AA & AAA) 51 G, 4-4, 1 save, 2.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 7.0 K/9
He’s a fastball/slider pitcher with a low 90s fastball that generates a fair share of groundball outs while keeping the ball in the ballpark. While his ERA should entice teams, his WHIP and strikeout rate may keep them away just like it did last year when the Mets left him exposed to the Rule 5 draft. He will most likely begin next year in AAA.
RISING PROFILES
2B/3B/SS Phillip Evans (Advanced A & AA) .321/.366/.460, 30 2B, 0 3B, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 1 SB
The Eastern League Batting Champion certainly raised his profile with a much improved offensive season. He’s starting to become more selective at the plate and learn how to be less of a pull hitter. The main issue for Evans is he may not have a position. While he can make all the plays at the infield positions, he lacks range to be a solid middle infielder. He also lacks the arm strength and power numbers you would want at third base.
RHP Chris Flexen (Advanced A, AA, AAA) 25 GS, 10-9, 3.56 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
Flexen appears to be in the mold of a typical Mets pitching prospect in that he has a high 90’s fastball and a good slider. Despite the repertoire, he is not generating a lot of strikeouts right now. On the bright side, he does generate a number of ground balls while limiting home runs. He was rumored to be part of the initial Jay Bruce trade that fell apart due to an unnamed prospect’s physical (does not appear to be him). A second division club like the Reds could take a flyer on him and put him in the bullpen for a year to gain control over him despite him never having pitched at a level higher than Advanced A St. Lucie.
RHP Tyler Bashlor (Full Season & Advanced A) 54 G, 4-3, 2.75 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 11.8 K/9
While the 5’11” Bashlor is short on stature, he has a big arm throwing a mid-90s fastball and a hard slider which he used to dominate in the Sally League. Bashlor used these pitches to strike out 11.8 batters per nine innings. Like Flexen, there is danger exposing a big arm like this even if the highest level of experience he has is four games for Advanced A St. Lucie.
RHP Kevin McGowan (Advanced A & AA) 42 G, 4 GS, 2 saves, 2.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.9 K/9
McGowan is a fastball/changeup pitcher that still needs to develop a breaking pitch. While that fastball/changeup combination has been good enough to get batters out at the lower levels of the minor leagues, he is going to need another pitch if he is going to progress as a pitcher.
DISAPPOINTING SEASONS
RF Wuilmer Becerra (Advanced A) .312/.341/.393, 17 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 34 RBI, 7 SB
Around the time of the Rule 5 Draft last year, the debate was whether a bad team like the Braves would take a flyer on Becerra just to get the promising young outfielder into their organization. Unfortunately, Becerra would have a shoulder injury that would rob him of his budding power. More importantly, that shoulder injury would require surgery ending his season after just 65 games.
1B/3B Jhoan Urena (Advanced A) .225/.301/.350, 17 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 0 SB
With the emergence of David Thompson, Urena was pushed from third to first. However, that isn’t what was most troubling about his season. In fact, many questioned whether he could stay at third given his frame. The issue was the switch hitting Urena stopped hitting for power this season. With his not hitting for power, Rosario’s best friend in the minors should go undrafted in the Rule 5 Draft.
LHP Paul Paez (Advanced A & AA) 34 G, 4-1, 3.88 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.9 K/9
This year Paez failed to distinguish himself by not pitching particularly well for St. Lucie and then struggling in Binghamton. He only has a high 80’s fastball and lacks a true swing and miss breaking pitch. While lefties hitting .308 off of him this year, he may not even have a future as a LOOGY in a major league bullpen.
NEEDS TIME TO DEVELOP
OF Patrick Biondi (Advanced A) .271/.352/.332, 17 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, 34 RBI, 26 SB
While Biondi’s stats look good on the surface, it should be noted at 25 years old, he is old for the level. On the bright side, Biondi has speed and is a good defender in CF. However, until he starts getting on base more frequently, he will not be considered for the 40 man roster.
RHP Nabil Crismatt (Short & Full Season A) 13 G, 7 GS, 1-4, 1 Save, 2.47 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 10.1 K/9
Crismatt is only 21, but he is mature in terms of his ability to control his changeup and curveball and throw them at any point in the count. Couple that with a low 90s fastball that could gain velocity as he ages, and you have someone who has the repertoire to be a major leaguer. However, considering he hasn’t faced stiff competition yet in his career, he is nowhere ready for the majors, at least not yet.
2B/3B/SS Jeff McNeil 2015 Season (Advanced A & AA) .308/.369/.377, 18 2B, 6 3B, 1 HR, 40 RBI, 16 SB
Coming into the season, McNeil appeared to be more mature physically and at the plate. He seemed ready to begin hitting for more power while still being able to handle 2B defensively. Unfortunately, he would only play in three games this season for Binghamton before going on the disabled list needing season ending sports hernia surgery.
RHP Tim Peterson (Advanced A & AA) 48 G, 4-1, 2 saves, 3.03 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 12.3 K/9
At each and every level Peterson has pitched, he has shown the ability to strike people out with a fastball that touches on the mid 90s and a plus curveball. The only issue for him in his career so far was his PED suspension in 2014.
AAAA PLAYERS
OF Travis Taijeron (AAA) .275/.372/.512, 42 2B, 5 3B, 19 HR, 88 RBI, 1 SB
Taijeron continued to do what he does best, which is get on base and hit for power. Despite a strong Spring Training and another solid offensive season, the Mets really showed no interest in calling him up to the majors. He will most likely go unprotected, but maybe this year a team out there desperate for some power in the outfield or on the bench will give him a shot.
2B L.J. Mazzilli (AA & AAA) .239/.320/.348, 18 2B, 6 3B, 5 HR, 43 RBI, 8 SB
Lee Mazzilli‘s son is a grinder out there who plays a decent second base. Unfortunately, it appears his bat will prevent him from ever getting a real shot to ever play in the big league.
PREDICTIONS
Guaranteed: Rosario
Likely: Flexen, Nido
Bubble: Bashlor, Knapp, McGowan, Sewald, Wheeler
As for the remaining players, the Mets may very well gamble exposing them to the Rule 5 Draft and potentially lose them to another team. It is also possible the Mets unexpectedly protect a player like Knapp. In any event, the Mets have a number of important decisions to make that can have far reaching implications.
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the fourth set of grades, here are the Mets utility players:
Early on in the season, Flores mostly struggled with getting limited playing time. It was difficult cracking into the starting lineup when Neil Walker, David Wright, and Asdrubal Cabrera playing well in April. As the season progressed, and the Mets became more and more injured, notably Wright and Lucas Duda, Flores was needed, and he really stepped up.
Where Flores really thrived was being used as a platoon option against left-handed pitching. Against lefties, Flores would hit an astounding .340/.383/.710 with four doubles, 11 homers, and 28 RBI. If you extrapolated those numbers of the course of a full 162 game season, Flores would’ve hit 36 homers and 93 RBI. That would have made him the best hitter in the Mets lineup this season. However, Flores’ numbers were nowhere near that as he struggled against right-handed pitching hitting .232/.289/.353 with 10 doubles, five homers, and 21 RBI. It should be noted Flores had 107 plate appearances against lefties and 228 plate appearances against righties.
For the season, Flores hit .267/.319/.469 with 14 doubles, 16 homers, and 49 RBI. Flores’ numbers were an upgrade over his 2015 numbers. Given how he has progressed each year over his career, and the fact that he is only 25 years old, we should see an improved Flores at the plate in 2017.
Even with some optimism, there is some doubt. Despite his improvement at the plate, he still didn’t walk enough, and he doesn’t hit right-handed pitching enough to play everyday. While he made marked improvements at shortstop as the 2015 season progressed, Flores regressed there defensively in 2016. In fact, Flores did not play all that well defensively at any position; although, he did show some promise at first base.
Part of the reason for Flores foibles could be he’s prone to the occasional gaffe (similar to Daniel Murphy). It could be him trying to do too much, it could be him having more faith in his abilities than he probably should, it could be his high effort level, or it could be something different altogether. Whatever it is, it was front and center when Tim Teufel made the baffling decision to send Flores home during that September 10th game against the Braves. It was absolutely a bad send, but it quite have possibly been a worse slide. Flores going in head first against a catcher like A.J. Pierzynski lead to his season-ending injury which required surgery to remove the hook of the hamate bone in the offseason.
The best thing you can say about Flores in the 2016 season was he was missed. During the Wild Card Game, the Mets were one bat short against Madison Bumgarner. With Flores’ stats against left-handed pitching, he could have gotten that one key hit the Mets needed to win that game. Except, he was injured and unable to play. The hope is he learns from this experience and comes back a better player in 2017.
After Ruben Tejada was released on the eve of the season, Campbell was a surprise member of the 25 man roster. Unfortunately, Campbell was not up to the task as he regressed yet another season. In 40 games, Campbell hit .173/.284/.227 with one double, one homer, and nine RBI. While the Mets organization was high on him to start the year (at least higher on him than most people), he didn’t do enough to justify their faith in him. It was his play that forced the Mets to go out and get James Loney to play first base after Duda’s injury.
Despite the fans apparent hatred of him, he still has use as minor league depth, and if used in small doses, he could have some benefit to a major league team as a pinch hitter and very part time player. Simply put, he was asked to do too much in 2016. That was one of the reasons he was removed from the 40 man roster, and it is why he is a minor league free agent at the moment.
Reynolds numbers during the 2016 season were lackluster. In 47 games, he only hit .255/.266/.416 with eight doubles, three homers, and 13 RBI. Still, it is hard to call Reynolds first 47 games in the major leagues disappointing because he did show some promise.
In his limited duty, Reynolds did show himself to be the Mets best major league ready defensive shortstop in the entire Mets organization. He also played well at second, third, and left field despite his playing a vast majority of his professional career at shortstop. In fact, the first ever game Reynolds played in left field was at the major league level. All Reynolds did in that game was play a representative left field and hit the game winning home run.
In 2016, Reynolds showed he could potentially be a major league bench player. As a former second round pick, many might have wanted more from Reynolds than what he has shown. That is not entirely fair at this point because he’s only played 47 games as a major leaguer, and in those 47 games, he showed he deserves another shot to be a major leaguer. With that in mind, despite his numbers being disappointing, Reynolds did have a succesful 2016 season, and we should look forward to what he can contribute in 2017 and beyond.
Ty Kelly C+
Just making it to the major leagues after his long odyssey in the minor leagues was a major accomplishment. And even though he made it to the majors as a result of a rash of injuries, he did earn his way to the majors with his hot hitting in Las Vegas. While he initially struggled, Terry Collins finally figured out what he was, and Kelly began to thrive.
Despite his being a switch hitter, Kelly was really best suited to facing left-handed pitching. While the sample size is really too small to derive a definitive conclusion, it should be noted Kelly put together much better at-bats from the right-hand side of the plate than he did from the left. As he faced more left-handed pitching, Kelly’s numbers improved, and he finished the season hitting .241/.352/.345 with a double, a triple, a homer, and seven RBI in 39 games.
In the field, while Kelly was used all over the place, and he performed better than anticipated. His best positions were probably third and left field. Unfortunately, Kelly did not demonstrate sufficient power to play at either of those positions. It should be noted that Kelly isn’t going to be a regular at the major league level. Rather, he is a bench player, so it is quite possible, his relative lack of power may not be as big an issue for him.
Ultimately, Kelly was rewarded for his hard work and resilence. He was rewarded not just with getting called-up to the majors, but also by being put on the Wild Card Game roster. In a season with a number of highlights for him, his seventh inning pinch hit single certainly has to rank well up there.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links. If you want to see the prior entries, here is the link for catchers, and here is the link for middle infielders.
One of the biggest issues with the 2017 Mets was the production they received from first base. The precipitous drop in production was a major factor in why the 2016 Mets scored fewer runs than the 2015 Mets. Remember, the 2015 Mets once infamously had John Mayberry, Jr. and Eric Campbell hitting in the middle of the lineup. With that in mind, getting improved production out of first base needs to be a priority for the Mets this offseason. Here is what should be available for the Mets this offseason:
INTERNAL FIRST BASEMAN
Duda is exactly the player the Mets need to revive their offense in 2017. From 2014-2015, Duda hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. He is a home run threat in the middle of your order, and he is the classic slugging first baseman.
The issue with Duda is no one knows if he is healthy. In 2015, he went on the disabled list with a herniated disc in his lower back. In 2016, he suffered a stress fracture in his lower back, and he took longer than expected to return from the injury. While he tried admirably to try to play in the Wild Card Game, he just wasn’t ready. For the season, he only played in 47 games hitting .229/.302/.412 with seven homers and 23 RBI.
While all indications are Duda is completely healthy, it is unknown whether he can withstand the rigors of a 162 game schedule. It is also unknown whether he can return to form after suffering back injuries in consecutive seasons. At the moment, it is anticipated he will earn approximately $7 million in arbitration. For the production we know he is capable of producing, that is a steep bargain. Not knowing if he can produce, $7 million could be an expensive gamble, especially in light of Wright’s situation.
Smith is coming off a terrific year in AA where he finally began to fulfill some of the offensive potential he has by hitting for more power in the second half of the season. He is a a highly regarded prospect who is already a slick defender at first base. Still, he is just 21 years old, and he has yet to have an at-bat above AAA. He is not ready to be the Opening Day first baseman, and it is quite possible he may not be ready to play in the majors next year.
PLAYERS CHANGING POSITIONS
Time and again, people state Wright should just move across the diamond and play first base. Saying that presents a clear misunderstanding of the first base position and how taxing it would be on Wright.
Other than catcher, first base is the most demanding physical position for a player. At first base, a player is constantly stretching, turning, and twisting in the hopes of getting a throw from one of his infielders that much quicker to turn a close play into an out. With a runner on first, the first baseman has to spring off the bag and into his defensive position as the pitcher delivers the ball. Like a third baseman, he charges the bunts and dives for balls down the line. According to Dr. Walter P. Jacobsen, DO, a neurosurgeon, these activities that are high impact and require twisting are activities that should be avoided. These activities are more prevalent at first than third base.
Even assuming this was incorrect, that Wright was better suited to first base, when is he going to get the opportunity to transition there? Wright had season ending cervical fusion surgery, and presumably, he is going to need to spend most of his time in the offseason rehabbing and figuring out yet another pregame routine that will permit him to play in as many games as possible. As such, there is no time for him to learn first base.
Without or without Cespedes’ return, the Mets are going to have a glut of everyday caliber outfielders, and one of them may need to find a new home. That new home could be on another team or at another position. With UZR and DRS rating Bruce was the Mets worst outfielder, he would be the likely candidate to move to first base.
The one caution is Bruce has only played three games there in his major league career, and all three of those games were two years ago. Even accounting for that, Bruce may have the athleticism to adapt to first base and succeed there on the major league level. It is also a way to keep him and his 30 home run caliber bat in the lineup every day while also allowing Curtis Granderson, another Mets right fielder who can hit 30 home runs, in the lineup everyday.
Still, before moving someone over to first base, Mike Piazza should always be a caution to Mets fans that not just anyone can move over there. It is a difficult position that requires hard work in the offseason. If this is the plan, the Mets need to implement it sooner rather than later.
None other than Keith Hernandez believes Conforto should be playing first base with him saying, “He more than likely is going to end up at first base, though it’s unlikely he’ll be anything more than average there.” (nj.com). While it is far from a ringing endorsement, it is notable when Hernandez, the best defensive first baseman in major league history, states you should play his position.
For his part, Conforto is open to the possibility saying, “I took some reps in college over at first base just for emergency-type situations. I think that’s something that’s very, very interesting, something I’d be open to, obviously. I just want to help the team.” (New York Post).
Moving Conforto there means you won’t have to displace a veteran like Bruce. However, it does create a few problems. First, choosing to move Conforto over Bruce also means choosing to move the better defensive outfielder out of the outfield. Second, moving Conforto there could become a potential barrier to Smith or Peter Alonso at first base in the upcoming seasons. Third, having Conforto change positions to the infield could be yet another obstacle in the young player’s development.
For a myriad of reasons ranging from a wrist injury to uneven playing time to him just falling into slumps like any other player, the 2016 season was a lost one for Conforto. He went from the Mets top hitting prospect to a young player Terry Collins entrusted to little more than pinch hitting duty down the stretch. It is quite possible the best thing for him is for the Mets to pick a position in the outfield and let him stay there and allow him to work with Kevin Long to get back to what worked well for him.
EXPENSIVE OPTIONS
Tigers GM Al Avila has already announced the Tigers are looking to get younger and shed some payroll this offseason. With that in mind, the Tigers have a number of interesting trade candidates making big money like Cabrera.
At 33, Cabrera had another terrific season hitting .316/.393/.563 with 38 homers and 108 RBI. Should Cespedes depart this offseason, Cabrera would more than replace Cespedes in the lineup. However, the Mets chances of obtaining Cabrera are unlikely due to the cost. First, it is going to take a huge haul of players to obtain them, and in the past, the Mets have shown unwillingness to move one of their big pitchers like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, or Steven Matz. Given Cabrera’s production, it is likely the Tigers ask for one of these players and/or a big prospect like Smith, Amed Rosario, or both.
Even if there was a middle ground on players the Mets deemed acceptable, it is hard to imagine them adding Cabrera’s contract. Cabrera still has seven years $132 million left on his deal. The contract carries through to his age 40 season, and there are two vesting options at the back end of the deal for $30 million a piece. If Cabrera does not age well, this contract would become the type of albatross Sandy Alderson typically avoids.
Bringing back Turner would be a page out of the Todd Zeile handbook. While Turner has not played regularly at first base, he has shown the ability to play over there, and his bat may help the Mets improve in 2016.
Moreover, Turner may need to move to first base to lengthen his career. Over the past few seasons, he has had knee issues, and he may not be well suited for the third base position in the time of the modern shift era that requires a third baseman to cover more ground than they did a decade or so ago.
There does remain some issues for Turner. First and foremost is the aforementioned knee issues. Second, Turner took off when he played in his hometown. There is no telling if he would struggle playing on the east coast again. Third, he regressed from an on base perspective this year. In 2014 and 2015, Turner was a player who had a .384 on base percentage with a .492 slugging. This year, Turner’s OBP dropped to .339 even while his slugging percentage stayed in the same vicinity (.493). This might have been a product of his knee issues or it could have been a product of him swinging for the fences more as evidenced by his career high 27 homers.
In either event, Turner is not the safest choice, especially when you are asking him to play out of position. These fears become magnified when you consider Turner will likely received a qualifying offer, and he will likely get a big contract offer from someone, including but not limited to the Dodgers, to play third base.
THE DESIGNATED HITTERS
Encarnacion may prove to be the biggest power bat on the free agent market. He is coming off a year that saw him hit .263/.357/.529 with 42 homers and a league leading 127 RBI. Over the past three seasons, Encarnacion is hitting .269/.361/.544 while averaging 38 homers and 112 RBI.
There are two issues with Encarnacion. First, much of his stats have been generated as a result of him hitting in the Rogers Centre, which is a hitter’s park. In his career, Encarnacion has hit .272/.360/.535 there. Last year, on the road, Encarnaction was a .246/.342/.492 hitter on the road. While it is a drop-off, the Mets would gladly take Encarnacion’s road production from their first base position next year.
Therein lies the real problem with Encarnacion. He’s a DH. Encarnacion has not played more than half a season at first base in his entire career. In his last five years with the Blue Jays, he has split his time between first and DH. While advanced metrics like UZR and DRS rate him to be an average first baseman, it is unknown whether he could withstand the rigors of playing in the field everyday. Those concerns are amplified for a player that will turn 34 next year, will command a large contract, and will most likely recent a qualifying offer.
Seemingly, from the moment Santana came up to the Cleveland Indians as a catcher, the team has sought a position for him. He has proven his best position is DH.
Santana is coming off a terrific year that saw him hit ..259/.366/.498 with 34 homers and 87 RBI. Those were the highest home run and RBI totals of his career. In his six full seasons with the Indians, Santana has averaged 24 homers and 81 RBI. With his on base skills and his switch hitting ability, Santana would be a welcome addition to the Mets lineup. However, like Encarnacion, the real question is whether he can be an everyday first baseman.
Like Encarnaction, he rates as average when he does play there. Unlike Encarnacion, he played almost a full season there in 2015. Moreover, he is four years younger than Encarnacion. So while both may receive qualifying offers and large contract offers on the free agent market, Santana may prove to be the better bet for the Mets should they look to upgrade the first base position in free agency.
QUESTIONABLE OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION
The best thing you can say about Loney in 2016 was he was a definitive upgrade over the Mets internal options like Campbell. Unfortunately, Loney showed little that would entice the Mets to bring him back next season. Loney finished the year hitting .257/.287/.369 with five homers and 18 RBI in 63 games after the All Star Break. He also showed he had limited range and an inability to stretch far for throws made to first. While he was an improvement over what the Mets had in 2016, the Mets are simply going to have to do better than him in 2017.
The Cleveland Indians took a one year flier on Napoli this offseason, and it has been a boon for them as Napoli has been a major contributor for a team now playing in the World Series. Still, there is caution for Napoli, who has a history of hip problems, and whose numbers were not great this season.
In 150 games, Napoli hit .239/.335/.465 with 34 homers and 101 RBI. In 2015, Napoli bounced around, and he hit .224/.324/.410 with 18 homers and 50 RBI in 133 games. With Napoli turning 35 next year, it is hard to believe he will have another strong campaign. Furthermore, the last thing this Mets offense needs is another low OBP guy who is seemingly all or nothing at the plate.
For a few seasons, Lind had proven himself to be a good on base player who may not have the traditional power you typically want from the first base position. In 2016, Lind played for the Mariners, and his production fell off a cliff. In 126 games, Lind hit .239/.286/.431 with 20 homers and 58 RBI. Historically, Lind has also struggled to hit left-handed pitching. Lind is more of a buy-low candidate in the event there are no better options than he is an upgrade you would seek on the free agent market.
BEST CHOICE
Ultimately, it may behoove the Mets to bring back Duda for one more season. If he produces at his normal levels, he will be exactly what this offense needs. Better yet, if he produces at that level, the Mets could give him a qualifying offer next offseason thereby helping them gain a first round draft pick in the process (assuming no changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement). Furthermore, with Duda, the Mets have a nice bridge to Smith should he take another leap this year and prove himself ready to contribute at the major league level ahead of schedule.
The first real playoff team Terry Collins managed with the Mets was in his first season with the team. It is hard to believe now, but that team was full of players that are now members, if not significant contributors, to teams that reached the postseason this year:
- Josh Thole – Toronto Blue Jays (not on the ALDS roster)
- Daniel Murphy – Washington Nationals
- Justin Turner – Los Angeles Dodgers
- David Wright – New York Mets (injured; not on the Wild Card Game roster)
- Jose Reyes – New York Mets
- Angel Pagan – San Francisco Giants
- Carlos Beltran – Texas Rangers
- Lucas Duda – New York Mets (injured; not on the Wild Card Game roster)
- R.A. Dickey – Toronto Blue Jays (not on the ALDS roster)
- Jon Niese – New York Mets (injured; not on the Wild Card Game roster)
Reading the names on that list, the two that immediately jump off the page are Murphy and Turner. They jump off the page for a myriad of reasons. The first reason is the two players are currently facing off against one another in the NLDS between the Dodgers and the Nationals. The series is tied at 1-1 in large part because Turner and Murphy have continued to be terrific postseason player.
Last year, Turner hit .526/.550/.842 with six doubles and four RBI against the Mets in the NLDS last year. Overall, in Turner’s postseason career, he is a .500/.538/.875 hitter with six doubles, one homer, and six RBI.
Murphy was the bat that helped carried the Mets to the World Series last year. In consecutive games, he hit homers off of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks. He would also homer off Fernando Rodney in what was a stretch of six straight games with a home run. In addtion to the homers, Murphy’s going from first to third on a walk in Game Five of the NLDS helped changed the complexion of that game. Additionally, up until the World Series, he had played exceptional defense (which admittedly is a rarity for him). So far in the NLDS, Murphy is 4-6 with a walk and two RBI. The first of the two RBI was the go-ahead RBI in Game 2 of the NLDS.
Between Turner and Murphy, the Mets had at one time two second baseman who have established themselves to be extraordinarily clutch and terrific postseason players. They were also two players the Mets were eager to replace.
Turner was surprisingly non-tendered a contract after a 2013 season where he seemed to solidify himself as a utility or platoon player (at a minimum). Instead, the Mets let him go with rumors circulating that he was a me-first player that didn’t hustle. He was also characterized as a player that wasn’t progressing because he liked the night scene a little too much. He would go to Los Angeles and blossom as a player. The Mets internal replacement? Eric Campbell.
When Murphy became a free agent, the Mets first aggressively pursued Ben Zobrist. After failing to land him, the Mets quickly moved to trade for Neil Walker. At no time did the Mets even make Murphy an offer. Unlike Turner, Walker was an actual replacement with Walker having a great year for the Mets before needing season ending back surgery. However, despite how good Walker’s year was, he still wasn’t anywhere near was good as Murphy was for the Nationals.
It should never have come as a surprise that both of these players were gone because the Mets, under Sandy Alderson’s reign as General Manager, never really wanted either player. If you go back to that 2011 season, the Opening Day second baseman was Rule 5 Draft pick, Brad Emaus. After a couple of weeks of him struggling, the Mets moved on and finally went to Murphy and Turner at second base. Murphy would get the bulk of the playing time there until Ike Davis‘ ankle injury that allowed them to play side-by-side. With Davis’ healing up and being ready for the 2012 season, the Mets proceeded with Murphy as the second baseman and Turner as the utility player. As we know, that lasted just two year.
Ultimately, the Mets made the postseason this year without either player. And yes, both players got their first chance with the Mets. Quite possibly, neither player would be in the position they are in now without the Mets giving them a chance to prove they are major league players. However, the Mets also made clear they didn’t want either player starting all the way back in 2011 when they anointed Emaus the everyday second baseman. Eventually, the Mets would get their chance to move on, and they took advantage of that opportunity.
With that, Murphy and Turner are in the NLDS after the Mets lost the Wild Card Game with T.J. Rivera starting at second base. One of those two will be in the NLCS with a chance to go to the World Series, a position the Mets thought they were going to be in as the season started. With all that in mind, it begs the question: how much differently would the Mets season have gone if they had kept either Turner or Murphy?
In the Wild Card Game, the Mets ran James Loney out to first base. In his very first at-bat, he snuffed out what could have been a rally by hitting into a double play on the first pitch he saw from Madison Bumgarner. In the seventh, he failed to field a groundball not hit too far from him that allowed Angel Pagan to reach on an infield single. That play effectively erased any chance that Noah Syndergaard could go back out for the eighth inning. Speaking of the eighth inning, with the Mets desperate for offense, Terry Collins pinch hit Eric Campbell for Loney.
Fact is, Loney shouldn’t have started that game. He didn’t have good numbers against left-handed pitching. He has been even worse against Bumgarner. However, he had to start with Lucas Duda not being ready to play, and with Wilmer Flores having suffered a season ending wrist injury.
All year long, Flores had demolished left-handed pitching. In 49 games against left-handed pitching, Flores hit .340/.383/.710 with 11 homers and 28 RBI. The Mets needed his bat in the lineup, and they needed him to play first base. However, he wasn’t available because of a crucial decision, or indecision, that was made on September 10th.
In that September 10th game, the Mets and Braves were tied 3-3 in the eighth inning, and Flores was standing on second base after a two out double. As we would soon see, with Flores’ speed, it was far from a guarantee that he would score from second on a base hit. Kelly Johnson would get a pinch-hit single. Flores “raced” around third, and he slid headfirst into home plate. In the ensuing collison, A.J. Pierzynski got him out – not just out at home plate, but also out for the season. Fact is, there is no reason why Flores wasn’t lifted there for a pinch runner. How did this happen?
Well, acccording to Collins, “We certainly had enough guys who could have ran for him, which we should have.” (Kevin Kernan, New York Post). Collins would go on to say, ““I was trying to get the pitching set up and get a pinch hitter in and got distracted, my faultI told [bench coach] Dickie [Scott], like I said, we were trying to get the pitching set up and get a pinch hitter, get somebody to hit for the pitcher who was coming up. I certainly should have had somebody ready to pinch run.”
Ultimately, Collins, being the manager and never one to make excuses, took responsibility for the failure to pinch run for Flores. However, it wasn’t just Collins’ mistake. It was also Bench Coach Dick Scott‘s mistake.
The bench coach’s job is more than just acting as a sounding board for the manager when seeking to make a move. The bench coach is also responsible for having a grasp of the matchups that are upcoming. They need to be aware of moves the team needs to be making in the next couple of innings. Overall, the bench coach needs to help prevent his manager, and ultimately his team, from making a gaffe that could cost them a game. During that confusion, Scott needed to remind Collins to get a pinch runner. He needed to be the clear head. If he did think of it, he needed to have a strong enough voice to get through to Collins.
What was simply astounding is the Mets almost repeated the mistake a week later. In the bottom of the seventh inning, the Mets were trailing the Minnesota Twins 1-0, and Ervin Santana was dealing. Loney was intentionally walked putting runners and first and second with no outs. Despite Loney representing the go-ahead run and being perhaps the slowest man in all of baseball, he was not pinch run for during Alejandro De Aza‘s at-bat. After De Aza walked, Loney was on second, again representing the go-ahead run. The Mets then sent Michael Conforto to bat for Jerry Blevins, and still Loney remained on second. After Conforto took the first pitch did the Mets send Ty Kelly out to second base to pinch run for Loney.
These weren’t isolated incidents. There are several other examples to pull from including the famous Collins’ rant about not knowing whether Jay Bruce or Brandon Nimmo is faster. If Collins didn’t know that, his bench coach sure should.
While Collins has his faults as a manager, there was never this sense of indecisiveness that we saw from the team this season. While Collins usually made head scratching moves, he usually had a justification for them. He would say that someone was swinging a hot bat, or the player has been a good player for them all season, or simply that he liked the matchup. He would never say there was distraction and confusion in the dugout. There was no reason for him to say it because Bob Geren was a good bench coach that helped not just his manager, but also his team. That calming presence and attention to detail was missed this year.
Geren’s work with catchers was also missed this year.
During Geren’s time in baseball, he has be renown for his work with catchers. If you recall, when Travis d’Arnaud had first come up with the Mets, there were many questions about his defense. In his first full season, he actually led the majors in passed balls, which is all the more alarming when you consider he spent a good amount of time in AAA. It wasn’t just the passed balls. During the season, d’Arnaud had trouble framing pitches, and his mechanics in all aspects behind the plate were out of whack – especially his throwing.
Working with Geren, d’Arnaud has built himself into one of the better catchers in baseball. He no longer has the issues with passed balls. He has shown the ability to call a good game. He is an exceptional pitch framer. There is probably no catcher better in the league in fielding a throw and getting the tag down without violating the plate blocking rules. In 2015, d’Aranud was actaully league average in throwing out base runners.
While d’Arnaud was good behind the plate this year, his mechanics throwing the ball took a step back. It could have been the shoulder injury, but it also could have been him missing the calming presence of Geren. Eventually, it became so much of an issue that Rene Rivera had to become Syndergaard’s personal catcher due to Syndergaard’s difficulties holding on base runners and d’Arnaud’s weak arm. There is no telling how all of this affected him mentally and whether this carried over to his offense.
So overall, the Mets truly missed Geren in the 2016 season, d’Arnaud especially. It was a rough first year for Scott as the bench coach. Despite it being a rough year, he will be returning to the staff next season. Although it has not been announced, he will presumably be returning to the same role. Hopefully, the growing pains are out of the way, and Scott will be a more effective bench coach in 2017.
The MiLBYs are the minor league equivalent of the ESPYs where fans get to vote for the best players and best plays from over the course of the 2016 minor league season. In the voting, Mets fans can come out and vote for their favorite player:
No, it is not what most Mets fans think with Campbell, the player Mets fans love to hate. Campbell hit a ball that went more than halfway to the dugout, and then spun back in play:
I guess we can now spin rate joins hard hit percentage as the uncanny skills Campbell has.
Other players you can vote for are Amed Rosario as the Breakout Prospect and P.J. Conlon as the Top Starting Pitcher.
Rosario split time between St. Lucie and Binghamton, he hit .324/.374/.459 with 24 doubles, 13 triples, five homers, and 71 RBI. Each and every one of those statistics was a career best for Rosario. He did that while also being an elite defensive shortstop.
Conlon split time between Columbia and St. Lucie, he made 24 starts and one relief appearance pitching 142.0 innings. Colon would finish the year with a 12-2 record with a 1.65 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 4.67 K/BB ratio. Conlon’s combined 1.65 ERA was the best ERA at any level of professional baseball for qualified starters. In the Mets minor league system, Conlon would finish first in WHIP and K/BB ratio.
The Brooklyn Cyclones were nominated for Game of the Year for their season opener that lasted 20 innings. The Cyclones had to use two position players to pitch in a game they lost to the Staten Island Yankees and had to use two position players to pitch.
The Columbia Fireflies were nominated for Promo of the Year when they wore purple jerseys and launching purple fireworks to honor what would’ve been Prince’s 58th Birthday.
Because when else are you going to see @DavidWThompson8 throwing someone out dressed as Prince? #PurpleGame pic.twitter.com/zj0Nt2lzs9
— Columbia Fireflies (@ColaFireflies) June 13, 2016
The Las Vegas 51s and the Brooklyn Cyclones were nominated for Photo of the Year.
Voting ends on October 25th, and the winners will be announced from October 26 – November 4th. Please make sure you go out and vote for your favorite Mets prospects and teams.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors
As Conor Gillaspie joined the ranks of Dave Henderson, Mike Scioscia, and Yadier Molina, all I was felt with was the feeling of “What if . . . ?”
It was one of several questions, I have thinking about last night’s Wild Card Game. Not all of these are second-guesses, nor are they are particularly the reason why the Mets lost the game. Clearly, the Mets lost the game because Madison Bumgarner was Madison Bumgarner. Furthermore, not all of these questions have answers. Still, there are some questions that just need to be asked:
- If Kelly Johnson didn’t feel comfortable playing first base, did the Mets consider playing him in right field? KJ was 7-20 off Bumgarner and Jay Bruce was 3-23 heading into the game.
- Why were the Mets batters so aggressive early in the game? The idea was to outlast Bumgarner and get into the Giants bullpen. Instead, Bumgarner needed just 21 pitches to get through the first three innings putting him well on pace to finish the game.
- If the Mets carried Kevin Plawecki to give them three catchers to permit Travis d’Arnaud to hit for Rene Rivera when the Mets needed offense, why did Rivera bat in the bottom of the seventh when you already knew Noah Syndergaard was coming out of the game?
- Also, with a tight game, once Rivera came out, why wasn’t d’Aranud double switched into the game with the pitcher’s spot due up in the eighth? Doing that would’ve permitted the Mets to go two innings with Reed. Note, as it turned out with Reed throwing 20 pitches in the eighth, this became a bit of a moot point.
- If you were going to pinch hit Eric Campbell for James Loney late in the game for offense, why not just start Campbell at first? Loney is awful against left-handed pitching, and he’s even worse than that against Bumgarner.
- How healthy was Lucas Duda? If he was good to go even for a pinch hitting appearance, he needed to be on the roster.
- How was it that Campbell and Ty Kelly were the Mets first two options to pinch hit off the bench? It’s astounding to think about how you couldn’t really argue that much with the decision.
- After the T.J. Rivera double, should the Mets have gone all-in on the inning considering that was most likely going to be their best chance to score off Bumgarner? If Bruce is unable to bunt, couldn’t you have brought in Juan Lagares to lay one down? Do you at least consider pinch hitting for Rivera in that spot, especially with Loney on deck? If Lagares did come into the game, you at least had his defense in center field for what was a tightly contested ball game.
- Should Terry Collins have ordered Jeurys Familia to walk Gillaspie? If you do, you create an out at any base, and you definitively get Bumgarner out of the game. For what it’s worth, I completely agreed with the decision to pitch to Gillaspie, but I still think the question needs to be raised.
- Was this the last time we will see Yoenis Cespedes, Duda, and David Wright wearing a Mets uniform? Duda and Wright were on the field wearing their Mets uniform for player introductions.
Ultimately, Collins did a terrific job last night. While you can argue with some decisions, he put his team in position to win that game, and his players didn’t execute. Even if one or two things change, the Mets still probably lose this game, which is the most depressing thought of all. With all of these questions that linger unanswered there is one remaining that we will find out the answer to around the same time next year:
Can the Mets get back to this point for a third straight season?
That is the biggest question of all.
As we head to the Wild Card Game, we already know that we are going to see an epic pitching matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. Presumably, this game is going to be won and lost on which pitcher blinks first and allows a run. It is going to be a daunting task for both offenses.
In Bumgarner’s career, he has made six starts against the Mets going 5-0 with a 1.86 ERA and a 1.025 WHIP. In four starts at Citi Field, Bumgarner is 4-0 with a 0.62 ERA and a 0.828 WHIP. Bumgarner faced the Mets twice this year with very different results.
On a May 1st game at Citi Field, Bumgarner earned the win pitching six shutout innings allowing six hits and three walks while striking out seven. On an August 18th game at AT&T Park, in what was supposed to be a pitcher’s duel against Jacob deGrom, both pitchers struggled. Bumgarner still got the win despite allowing six hits, four runs, four earned, and three walks with six strikeouts over just five innings.
With that in mind, looking at the recent history, the Mets do have something to build their confidence against Bumgarner as they head into Wednesday’s game. There’s reason for confidence because the healthy Mets on the 40 man roster have actually fared well against Bumgarner:
Presumable Starting Lineup
- Jose Reyes 3-9
- Asdrubal Cabrera 3-7, 2 RBI, K
- Yoenis Cespedes 3-10, 2B, RBI, 3 BB, 3 K
- Curtis Granderson 0-3, BB, K
- Jay Bruce 3-23, HR, 4 RBI, 6 K
- T.J. Rivera 2-3
- Lucas Duda 0-1
- Rene Rivera 2-3, 2B, HR, 5 RBI
- Noah Syndergaard 0-2, K
Bench:
- Eric Campbell 1-5, BB, 3 K
- Michael Conforto 0-3, 2 K
- Travis d’Arnaud 0-4, 2 BB, 3 K
- Kelly Johnson 7-20, 5 K
- Ty Kelly 1-2, BB
- Juan Lagares 1-9, K
- James Loney 2-13, 2B, RBI, BB, 5 K
- Kevin Plawecki 1-3
Have Never Faced Bumgarner (2016 against LHP):
- Gavin Cecchini 1-3, 2B, RBI
- Alejandro De Aza 8-41, 3 2B, RBI, 5 BB, 13 K
- Brandon Nimmo 2-7, BB, K
- Matt Reynolds 8-27, 6 2B, HR, 6 RBI, BB, 6 K
Look, anytime you face Bumgarner in an elimination game, you should not feel comfortable. In the 2014 Wild Card Game, Bumgarner pitched a complete game, four hit, one walk, 10 strikeout shutout. In Game 7 of the 2014 World Series, Bumgarner came out of the bullpen on two days rest to throw five shutout innings to give the Giants their third World Series title in five years.
Once again, this is an even numbered year, and the Giants are once again sending Bumgarner out to the mound to begin the run to another World Series. Standing in his way is 60’6″ postseason Syndergaard and a collection of Mets bats that have hit him well. The Mets have a good chance to win this game.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.