David Peterson
Maybe this is just the excitement which comes from Opening Day. Certainly, that is amplified by new ownership, the Francisco Lindor extension, and Jacob deGrom taking the mound. However, taking everything into account, this New York Mets team is the best one we have seen since 2015 and probably 2006.
Like most times the Mets are good, they are going to be led by pitching. Their starting staff is great, and when healthy, it is the best in baseball. Part of the reason why is deGrom is still the best pitcher in baseball. Behind him right now is Marcus Stroman. Stroman has made adjustments and added new pitches, and he looks set for a career year. That is really saying something considering he has been a gamer his entire career, and he was the World Baseball Classic MVP.
Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco may be the two most underrated pitchers in baseball. Looking at their FIP, they pitch at or near an ace level. In this rotation, they may be no better than third or fourth starters. It’s not just doing deGrom-Stroman-Syndergaard-Carrasco. This is one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball.
Behind that quartet is Taijuan Walker who was once a top 100 prospect, and he seems poised to take a big step forward after using analytics to help him improve. After Walker, the Mets have David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto, each of whom could be around a three in most rotations. For the Mets, they will eventually be on the outside looking in.
They are all going to be better pitchers because they have the tandem of James McCann and Tomas Nido behind the plate. Both of these players are strong catchers who are excellent pitch framers. Having catchers like that behind the plate make good pitchers even better. When your starting pitching is great and operating at a high level, you are going to win a lot of games.
This is paired with an incredible lineup. They Mets have an embarrassment of riches on that front. Consider Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have each been All-Star lead-off hitters, and they aren’t even the Mets best lead-off hitter. That’s Brandon Nimmo. With that group plus Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith, their 1-6 of their lineup can and probably should be hitting in the middle of the order.
Now, this Mets team isn’t perfect. Far from it. The first problem is their bullpen. The good news on that front is between Edwin Diaz and Trevor May, they have the last two innings covered well. The hope is at least one of Dellin Betances, Miguel Castro, or Jeurys Familia can figure it out to become that seventh inning reliever. That is at least until Seth Lugo is good to return. When that happens the Mets bullpen will be in great shape.
Another factor there is the Mets have some other interesting options. Sooner or later, Drew Smith will be healthy and ready to rejoin the bullpen. It should also be noted when the Mets have their full rotation, someone like Lucchesi can move down to the bullpen where his churve could be a weapon on par with Lugo’s curveball.
The other issue is the defense. Simply put, having J.D. Davis at third is unacceptable. He can’t remotely field the position. Having Dominic Smith behind him makes the left side defense one of the worst in baseball. To that, they may not be the worst in the division with the Atlanta Braves probably being worse with Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna.
It’s very possible Brandon Nimmo can succeed with positioning in center. After all, he’s had positive OAAs in center most of his career, and he does have the speed for the position. Jeff McNeil seems more comfortable at second, and while Alonso has his defensive issues, he is quite adept and receiving throws around first.
While the lineup has serious defensive issues, the bench does not. Luis Guillorme is a Gold Glove caliber defender. Albert Almora and Kevin Pillar are also quite good. With the lead, we can and should see Luis Rojas run all three out with Smith moving to first base. When that happens, the Mets defensive alignment turns from questionable to really strong.
Therein lies the key. Aside from health, Rojas is going to be the biggest key to this Mets season. He is going to need a deft touch as to when to utilize his defensive replacements. He and Jeremy Hefner are also going to have to get their rotation healthy through the season, which is all the more challenging because of the shortened season last year. They are also going to have to find the right mix in the bullpen while making sure they don’t overuse their best relievers.
Right now, the Mets have the right mix to have a great season. They also have an owner willing to invest in the team, and they have Sandy Alderson in charge, who we know will not be shy making a key trade or two to improve this Mets roster.
Looking at the Braves, their pitching has durability issues, and their defensive issues may be worse than the Mets. The Phillies don’t have the starting pitching, and their bullpen was a disaster last year. The Marlins are young and not deep. The Nationals still don’t know what they are going at key positions on the field.
Taking everything into account, the Mets are the best team in the National League East. If Rojas is up to the task, and there is every reason to believe he will be, the Mets are well poised to return to the postseason again and let their pitching take them back to the World Series.
Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets, and suddenly, everything got better. After Cohen purchased the Mets, things were different, very different:
1. It’s still unbelievable to think the Mets added $92.1 million to the 2021 payroll alone. If nothing else, that announced everything was different.
2. The Francisco Lindor trade was a franchise defining trade. He’s a superstar as future Hall of Famer.
3. It’s still hard to believe a contract extension won’t get done. After him, Noah Syndergaard may get one next.
4. It’s hard to see Scott Boras letting Michael Conforto sign an extension now. However, if he does, he will be poised to be the next captain and break a lot of David Wright’s records.
5. Speaking of breaking records, Jacob deGrom looks primed to have a great year. He cane out in midseason form, and it’ll be a shock if he’s not the Cy Young.
6. When Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco return, this will be an all-time Mets rotation.
7. It’s still curious the plan to start the year is to put David Peterson in a position where he bounces back and forth all year.
8. Speaking of curious decisions, how do the Mets make all of these moves and build a ground ball staff only to trust J.D. Davis at third.
9. They’re also putting a lot of stock in Edwin Diaz being great, and Miguel Castro figuring it out. Although to be fair, it’s not the same with Davis as this was the result of Seth Lugo‘s injury.
10. Dellin Betances looks done. With him, we may find out just how much Cohen can tolerate and whether the Mets know how to handle a sunk cost.
11. With Jordan Yamamoto not making the Opening Day roster and Luis Guillorme not getting a starting job, we see Spring Training competitions are a complete fraud.
12. For all the lip service Sandy Alderson gave to making the Mats a better defensive team, he did what he always did in putting multiple first basemen in the field.
13. They may be deadening the ball, but Pete Alonso looks ready to murder them. He’s completely locked in and looks poised to have a monster year.
14. Marcus Stroman also looks set to have a great year. He may be a surprise Cy Young contender, and it may behoove the Mets to lock him up before his price tag soars.
15. Stroman is a reminder the Mets never needed Trevor Bauer. Bauer may have another great year, but he’d be a fifth starter on this team, and he would’ve prevented the Mets from extending their stars.
16. All told, this is a team who has a deep lineup and a very good starting rotation. There are holes, but the team seems confident they can win.
17. The black jerseys returning does give this team big 1999 vibes.
18. Luis Rojas may emerge as a surprise manager of the year candidate. This team is that good and so is he. The key will Be how well he utilizes his defensive replacements in Guillorme (who should be starting), Albert Almora, and Kevin Pillar.
19. James McCann seems like the perfect addition to this team. The pitchers seem to be raving about his leadership and work behind the plate. If he hits a little (and he can hit a lot), he’s going to be great.
20. Everything about this organization is different. The team is vastly improved. They’re looking to keep their best players. They’re beefing up their analytics and player development. Overall, it’s a great time to be a Mets fan.
If this was just based on performance, Corey Oswalt has been one of the New York Mets best pitchers this Spring Training, and as a result, he should be on the Opening Day roster. If nothing else, we have heard on a number of occasions Luis Rojas has been impressed with how Oswalt has looked.
Corey Oswalt was dealing. ♠️♣️♥️♦️ pic.twitter.com/CWHzj2eo3E
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 15, 2021
One of the biggest developments for Oswalt has his finding that extra gear on his fastball. Now, this could be the result of his going shorter stints during the Spring. It could also be the result of the Mets making more advanced data available to their pitchers and coaching staff. Whatever the case, that velocity is there right now.
If the concern is he couldn’t maintain it as a starter, the Mets do have spots open in the bullpen due to injuries this Spring. In his first Spring appearance, he struck out five of the six St. Louis Cardinals batters he faced. Now, it should be noted that came against mostly minor league players for the Cardinals, but it did happen.
More importantly, as noted, the velocity happened, and according to reports, it is something that has carried forward into team workouts and B games. Long story short, Oswalt has seemingly made the jump that took him from a fifth starter ceiling to possibly something more as a Major League pitcher.
In years past, especially given the injury to Carlos Carrasco, that could have meant a shot at joining the Mets Opening Day rotation. However, with David Peterson‘s emergence last year coupled with the acquisitions of Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto at the moment, there is no spot for Oswalt in the rotation in the short or long term.
That would mean the bullpen is the best destination for Oswalt. In many ways, it makes sense to send him there. He’s shown the increased velocity and effectiveness in the shorter spurts. Moreover, with Seth Lugo down, the Mets really need someone to fill that role. No, no one is saying Oswalt could be a Lugo in the bullpen, but rather, he can definitively be the type of reliever who can give the Mets multiple innings out of the bullpen.
Given the truncated 2020 season, that is of increased performance. It is also noteworthy with Taijuan Walker and some combination of Lucchesi, Peterson, and Yamamoto for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, the Mets are running three 5+ inning starters out there. That puts a stress on the bullpen to pick up the slack, especially when that happens three consecutive games.
Having Oswalt out there can alleviate some of that burden. Really, of all the pitchers currently in camp, it is just him and Robert Gsellman who can fill that type of a role. Given the rotation, the Mets probably need two or more pitchers who can reliably give you 2+ innings.
In some ways, just picking a role for Oswalt is what can best help him succeed as a pitcher. Remember, this is a pitcher who has bounced between starting and relieving for three years now. That has been coupled with abusive use and inexplicable fallow periods. If nothing else, this would put Oswalt in the best position to succeed.
If he succeeds, he can then help the Mets succeed in 2021. He has the increased velocity, and he has the ability to eat some innings for the bullpen. Looking at performance and need out there, Oswalt should be in the Opening Day bullpen.
The New York Mets bullpen has been through for a loop with the injury to Seth Lugo to start the season. Things have grown increasingly complicated by diminished velocity of Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances. With all that said, the bullpen has talent, and there are many spots accounted for already.
Guaranteed – Miguel Castro, Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Aaron Loup, Trevor May
Obviously, Diaz is going to be the closer coming off of a strong 2020 season. May is going to figure into the equation as a late inning reliever, and Loup was brought on to be the LOOGY. That’s the easy part.
Castro is out of options, and it is very likely he would be picked up off waivers if the Mets tried to send him down. Fortunately, that does not seem to be an issue with Castro having a great Spring striking out four in 4.0 scoreless and hitless innings.
After him, with Familia seemingly getting his elite level stuff back, he is a lock to make the bullpen. If nothing else, he can pitch the middle innings while the Mets hope Jeremy Hefner gets him back to his dominant form.
Bubble – Dellin Betances, Robert Gsellman, Drew Smith, Daniel Zamora
The 13 pitcher roster rule has been suspended for the 2021 season, but that may be a good general construct. Considering a five man rotation with the aforementioned five guaranteed spots, that leaves three remaining spots.
Given his salary and history of building up his velocity in-season, it is likely Betances makes the Opening Day roster. That leaves two spots available in the bullpen. Given the performances this Spring, that is going to be a difficult decision.
Gsellman has been a mainstay in the bullpen over the last few seasons and based on seniority he gets the call. Notably with him, the Mets did have the option to stretch him out as a starter, but they opted not to do that this spring with Gsellman only throwing 4.0 innings over three appearances.
Smith was the one reliever from the 2017 trade deadline debacle who has proven he could pitch in the majors. So far, he looks good, and the Mets are going to have to go out of their way to try to keep a pitcher with three scoreless appearances with no walks and three strikeouts off of the roster.
Finally, there is Zamora who probably presents the Mets best option to carry two left-handed pitchers in the bullpen. He has been a little wild with two walks over 3.2 innings, but he has also struck out three batters. That is typical for Zamora over the last few years.
Fifth Starter Competition – Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, Jordan Yamamoto
The injury to Carlos Carrasco certainly changed the complexity of the fifth starter battle. With his injury, that opened up two spots instead of one. Given the nature of the injury, the Mets could feel more comfortable putting Peterson in the Opening Day rotation as the fear of having to send him down at one point isn’t as strong.
If Peterson were to make the rotation, the Mets could put one or both of Lucchesi or Yamamoto in the bullpen. Both pitchers have been great this Spring, and they have both more than made the case they deserve to be on the Opening Day roster in some way, shape, or form.
Outside Looking In – Jerry Blevins, Tommy Hunter, Arodys Vizcaino
Blevins probably has a much better chance than this given his curveball looking great. However, he has only appeared in two games walking two and striking out three. While this arguably puts him ahead of Zamora, especially with his track record, adding Blevins would require the Mets to make a roster move.
With respect to Hunter and Vizcaino, they may well both prove to have an impact on the Mets in 2021. That said, neither quite seem ready to pitch Opening Day at the moment. That goes double for Vizcaino who has only made one apperance so far.
Wild Card – Mike Montgomery, Corey Oswalt
With Carrasco suffering an injury, the Mets are said to begin stretching out Montgomery. That would seemingly be an indication they are looking for him to begin the season in Syracuse instead of Flushing. Still, it is hard to overlook his ability to be another lefty in the bullpen and a pitcher who can give you multiple innings. That said, Lucceshi could offer that himself.
Oswalt has had a very good Spring Training with Luis Rojas being very impressed. His velocity is way up, and he has looked quite strong. In fact, we probably shouldn’t completely rule him out in the fifth stater competition. If it is about competition, Oswalt has a strong case to make the Opening Day roster. That said, the fact it’ll require a 40 man move serves as a significant impediment.
Opening Day Bullpen
Joining the aforementioned group of Castro, Diaz, Familia, Loup, and May will very likely include Betances giving the Mets two more spots to figure out. With Lucchesi and Yamamoto now poised to start the season in the rotation, it would seem the final two spots can go to pitchers who are strictly relievers and not converted starters.
At the moment, it looks like one of those two spots should go to Smith. It’s possible the last spot goes to Gsellman due to his ability to give the Mets an extra inning here or there, but it would seem his spot is about as tenuous as Betances’ is right now. Overall, there are two weeks to go and a lot can happen. It will be very interesting to see where things go from here.
Make no mistake, Carlos Carrasco suffering a tear in his hamstring is terrible news for the New York Mets. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he’s arguably the second best pitcher on the team even when everyone is healthy.
That said, this injury does present an opportunity for the Mets, or better yet, their pitchers.
As detailed on The Apple, prior to Carrasco’s injury, the Mets currently have a very interesting fifth starter competition between Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, and Jordan Yamamoto. So far, Lucchesi and Yamamoto have separated themselves from Peterson.
That’s to the Mets benefit because Peterson should probably begin the season in Syracuse. Part of the reason is his control and FIP, and the larger reason is with Noah Syndergaard returning, the fifth starter will be removed from the rotation. The Mets certainly won’t want to do that to Peterson.
Regardless of that, in the small sample size that is Spring Training, Peterson has just been out-pitched by Lucchesi and Yamamoto:
- Lucchesi – 2 G, 5.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
- Peterson – 2 G, 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, K
- Yamamoto – 3 G, 8.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, ER, BB, 5 K
Looking at the stats, Lucchesi has probably been the most dominant, but he’s walked three. Yamamoto has been strong, and he’s shown the most progress of this trio. In fact, he’s really been much more in the zone than he had been with the Miami Marlins.
Based upon your point of view, you could make a strong case for either pitcher. Other considerations to account for are Lucchesi being 27 and Yamamoto only having one option remaining.
In some ways, margins that razor thin can be dangerous. Part of the reason why is it’s just Spring Training, and these pitchers have only thrown the equivalent of one start.
As we know, aside from the greatness of Jacob deGrom, pitcher performances vary start to start. Making important decisions on that can lead to bad results. We’ve seen it happen with the Mets.
One classic example is the Tyler Yates/Aaron Heilman competition in 2004. Yates lasted seven starts, and Heilman never really would get the chance to start. The butterfly effect of that was the Mets losing Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
Of course, there’s Glendon Rusch beating out Bill Pulsipher in 2000. Rusch was very good in the Mets rotation that year before pitching extraordinarily well in the postseason that year. Pulsipher flamed out, and he was moved for Lenny Harris, who was great off the bench for that team.
While people don’t typically look at it that way, that’s what’s at stake in fifth starter battles. Remember, the fifth spot in the rotation comes up less than five times the top spot in the rotation does.
Who the fifth starter is does matter. We’ve seen that, and having seen that, it would greatly benefit teams to have more time to make their assessments.
That’s what the Carrasco injury affords the Mets. It allows them to start the season with both Lucchesi and Yamamoto in the rotation.
They can see how they work with James McCann and Tomas Nido in games that matter. They can see them against Major League rosters and going through a lineup more than once. All of that gives them better information to make their assessments.
In the end, Carrasco’s injury created an opportunity for another pitcher to grab a rotation spot. We will now see who is truly up for the task.
When teams assemble their pitching rotations, they typically assemble them in order of the talent of their top starters. Taking the New York Mets as an example, Jacob deGrom will be the Opening Day starter. After him, with Carlos Carrasco possibly delayed to start the season and Noah Syndergaard on the 60 day IL, it is fairly clear right now Marcus Stroman would be the second starter.
If you are taking the long term view of the season, Stroman should not be the second starter. Yes, he is the second best starter available, and if this was Game 2 of a postseason series, you would definitively be handing him the ball. However, in the regular season, that does not make any sense.
Looking at deGrom, since he has been the best pitcher in baseball, he has averaged 6.1 innings per start. If you look at the two seasons prior to 2020, he averaged 6.2 innings. That means whenever he takes the ball, the bullpen is getting a break. That is important when you consider the bullpen gets increasingly taxed and taxed with each start. To that, here is the average innings per start over the last four seasons for the Mets projected 2021 rotation options:
- Jacob deGrom 6.1
- Noah Syndergaard 6.0
- Carlos Carrasco 6.0
- Marcus Stroman 5.2
- Taijuan Walker 5.0
- David Peterson 5.0
- Joey Lucchesi 5.0
- Jordan Yamamoto 4.2
Now, the Mets seemed to be blessed with pitchers who tend to go deeper into games than most teams. Still, when fully healthy, this will be a rotation with two 5+ inning starters at the back end of their rotation. That means a bullpen who gets increasingly used after deGrom starts will be asked to provide a lot more without much of a break.
That was something which truly presented an issue for the Mets during deGrom’s first Cy Young campaign. Yes, he received little to no run support far too often that season. However, he also would see the bullpen blow a number of late leads for him. Part of the result is that the bullpen had been taxed heading into his starts. Rather than having the bullpen in the best possible shape to secure a win from their ace, they were on fumes hoping for deGrom to give them a break.
That is partially how you take a season for the ages and turn it into a 11-10 record for deGrom. That is both a reflection of how wins and losses for a pitcher are overrated. However, it is also an indication that something is going wrong that a pitcher who is setting records can’t buy a win.
If we were to look at the current Mets rotation, the bullpen is going to be well rested when deGrom takes the mound. Typically speaking, they will need to get about 6-8 outs in a game. That will leave them well rested. That is exactly the right time to line up the bullpen for a Walker start.
Typically speaking, Walker provides 5+ innings in a start. After deGrom, the bullpen will be well poised to provide that. Of course, after that, the Mets will have run through some of their bullpen. That is when you combat that by going to Syndergaard or Carrasco (if healthy) or Stroman. The Mets can then go to their 5+ inning fifth starter whether that is Luccesi, Peterson, or Yamamoto. Finally, the Mets could then go to Stroman who can eat some more innings before handing the ball back to deGrom.
By restructuring the rotation in that fashion, the Mets are positioning their bullpen to get breaks here and there. You are getting them regular work, and you are avoiding some fallow periods where they are not getting work because the top pitchers are eating up innings. Overall, the general concept is to stagger the pitchers by the innings they will reasonably provide instead of just lining them up without any concept on the impact it will have on the bullpen and staff as a whole.
Hopefully, that means a better rested Edwin Diaz. It could mean less of a need to rely on Seth Lugo for multiple innings when he returns. It could mean not needing to have the Triple-A to MLB shuttle for pitchers like Drew Smith. Instead, pitchers are put in a position where they get regular rest and work. That should help them succeed, and it should help prevent them from blowing games for deGrom.
This is normally the time of the year we see the New York Mets experience some sort of injury which significantly impacts their ability to win the division. That is part of the reason why everyone was bracing themselves over the Carlos Carrasco news.
It appears Carrasco had a bit of a setback in his preparation for the season. He has been shut down for a few days due to a sore pitching elbow.
In days past, this was a call for despair. Jeff Wilpon would be playing doctor, and Mets fandom would be using gallows humor suggesting Ray Ramirez was fitting him for a walking boot. This year, at least with respect to Carrasco, we’re not at that point.
Luis Rojas said Carlos Carrasco’s elbow soreeness from the live BP is something Carrasco has experienced before at this point of spring. That’s why the Mets aren’t concerned.
“He made it sound like it’s something he’s dealt with in the past,” Rojas said.
— Justin Toscano (@JustinCToscano) March 10, 2021
This is part of Carrasco’s preparation for the season. In fact, during Spring Training roughly a year ago, Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona said, “Every spring after his first outing, he gets mild elbow inflammation. I would call it more maintenance than anything.” (Mandy Bell, MLB.com).
If this is just what Carrasco deals with at this point in the Spring, then nothing is out of the normal. He deals with the soreness and gets back to pitching.
Last year, that led to excellent results. In 12 starts, he was 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and a 10.9 K/9. If that’s where this sore elbow is heading, the Mets are in phenomenal shape.
If not, and Carrasco is truly injured, well, the Mets are actually prepared for that. One of the losers of the fifth starter competition can slot in to take his space for a short period.
Certainly, the Mets would be in good shape having to start at least two of Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, or Jordan Yamamoto. Keep in mind these pitchers are only stemming the tide for when Noah Syndergaard can return.
In any event, the Mets are well positioned to withstand a severe Carrasco injury. That’s even if this is a severe injury. Early indications are he’s not really hurt.
If you had the opportunity to watch the Spring Training matchup between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals, we’ll have to assume you were in Port St. Lucie. That assumption was made because not much of the game was actually televised.
Obviously, that’s an exaggeration. Alliteration was made here because ESPN made a very concerted effort to conduct a number of interviews rather than focus on the game action.
That was apparent when David Peterson was fighting it in the first inning, and the focus wasn’t on him or the game. Instead, Juan Soto was taking up much of the attention and screen.
That was a theme throughout the game. The announcers mostly did interviews. For the Mets, perhaps the most notable was Sandy Alderson, who was audibly frustrated while Jeurys Familia was struggling.
That was the obvious intention of the broadcast. They were talking baseball, and they were giving both teams an opportunity to introduce themselves to the viewers.
For their part, managers Luis Rojas and Dave Martinez were insightful. In terms of Rojas, his talking about how Francisco Lindor is not only a leader but also a teacher gave us a unique and fascinating look at the Mets new superstar.
There was also sentimental discussion about the legends who passed including Hank Aaron and Tom Seaver. Touching moments included Eduardo Perez talking about Joe Morgan, and Tim Kurkjian talking about Shannon Forde.
Again, not much discussion about the game. It did happen, but not really. If this was a regular season game, it would’ve been really annoying. However, even with issues ESPN has with their telecasts, this wasn’t a regular season game.
This was a Spring Training game. Much like they did last year, ESPN used it as an opportunity to help showcase personalities to help grow the game. It was EXTREMELY effective last year with it being the first step in Dominic Smith becoming not just a fan favorite, but also his becoming a more prominent player.
If you want to pick nits, the only people tuning into these games are the diehards who want to see the players. Still, there are others who throw it on just to watch something, and a telecast like this introduced them to some of the best players in the game.
For many, this broadcast didn’t work, and that’s fine. What matters is ESPN tried something to try to grow the game, and attempts like that is a good thing. We need more of that, and Spring Training is the perfect time to try that.
Overall, this worked last year, but it didn’t really work this year. Let’s see how it works in 2022 and beyond. More importantly, let’s see if this can help grow the game because at the end of the day, that’s what they’re trying to do.
Typically speaking, you don’t like to see pitchers jump over 100.0 innings from one season to the next. The problem is with the 60 game season in 2020 nearly every pitcher in Major League Baseball is going to have to make that jump. How to combat this is going to be a concern for all 30 Major League teams, especially the New York Mets.
The Mets have Marcus Stroman, who didn’t pitch last year, and they have Noah Syndergaard returning from Tommy John at some point this season. Carlos Carrasco is still building up his endurance on the mound after battling leukemia. There is also the opportunity for David Peterson to crack the Opening Day rotation. Throw in protecting Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher in baseball, and you see how the Mets may want to find a way to limit everyone’s innings.
There’s more to it as well. None of these pitchers threw even 70.0 innings last year. We don’t know when, but it is reasonable to assume at some point the Mets starters may face fatigue and may hit a wall. As we typically see, there are going to be a few pitchers who battled ineffectiveness and hit the proverbial dead arm periods. That’s even with extremely well conditioned pitchers like deGrom and Stroman.
Really, the Mets need to figure out the best possible way to let their pitchers keep strong all season long, and hopefully, be in a position to be as strong as possible heading into October. In a different way, that was an issue the Mets had in 2015.
That season, the Mets opted to throw their five best pitchers to start the season. To a certain extent, Zack Wheeler‘s needing Tommy John forced the issue there. Beyond that, the Mets didn’t really plan for making the postseason. Their season as well as Matt Harvey‘s return from his own Tommy John surgery as well as Scott Boras forcing the issue with innings limits forced the Mets to confront the issue.
At times, we saw a six man rotation. That was something which was met with some resistance from the Mets young starting staff. To a certain extent, you could understand that as baseball players, especially starters, are creatures of habit. Considering that being the case, perhaps it would be better to start the season with a six man rotation to give the Mets starters a better opportunity to adapt.
Certainly, the Mets have the arms to pull that off. To start the year, they already have a strong top of the rotation with deGrom, Stroman, Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker. After that, they have a strong competition for the fifth starter spot with Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto. There is also players like Jerad Eickhoff and Corey Oswalt who could force their way into the conversation.
In terms of Spring Training competitions, we should not that they’re terrible in nature. You’re judging a bunch of players against differing levels of competition. You may get to face a team full of Double-A to Four-A players and dominate while another player gets to face Major League caliber competition. That leads to skewed results.
One way to combat that is to take your best six pitchers up north. You can ease your four best pitchers into the 2021 season and then get a better look at the fifth starters against Major League competition. This means while you are saving your best pitchers for the end of the season, you are also getting a better look at your pitchers in what could be described as a protracted competition.
Keep in mind, you can easily skip this sixth starter in the rotation if need be and have them available in the bullpen. With early season rain outs and off days, you may not want to go right to the sixth starter. That also gives the team an added benefit to see how a Lucchesi or Yamamoto could look coming out of the pen for an inning or more.
Overall, there is a lot of benefit to having a six man rotation to start the season. Pulling it off properly requires a deft touch by Luis Rojas. If done properly, the Mets can secure a postseason spot, and they can have deGrom at full strength to have a similar run to what he had in 2015. In fact, imagine what he could do now! But before that, we just have to figure out a way for him and the rest of this rotation to navigate the 2021 season.