Brandon Nimmo
The New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers have an interesting history. For fans of the original Mets team, many of them were originally Dodgers fans.
That includes Fred Wilpon, who built a ballpark in testament to those Dodger teams. Of course, that was resented by younger more modern Mets fans who have zero recollection of those Brooklyn teams.
For Gen X fans and younger, the history of the Mets and Dodgers is quite different.
There was the Dodgers upsetting the 1988 Mets. That was a painful series highlighted by David Cone perhaps riling up the Dodgers, Davey Johnson leaving in Dwight Gooden too long with the ensuing Mike Scioscia homer, and Orel Hershiser‘s virtuoso performance.
The 2006 Mets got some measure of a payback in the NLDS sweep. That was a total beatdown with former Dodgers Shawn Green and Jose Valentin relaying to former Dodger Paul Lo Duca who tagged out Jeff Kent and J.D. Drew at home plate.
Things between these two teams really ratcheted up in the 2015 NLDS. That all began with Chase Utley living up to his reputation as one of the dirtiest players ever with his tackling Ruben Tejada at second thereby breaking Tejada’s leg.
Utley would go on to cowardly duck the Mets in New York. Ultimately, the Mets won that series behind the brilliance of Jacob deGrom and the postseason heroics of Daniel Murphy.
The bad feelings of that series carried forward into the next season when Noah Syndergaard was ejected during a nationally televised game after throwing a pitch behind Utley. Utley would get the last laugh with Terry Collins being revered years later when the ejection video was released.
After that, things calmed down. That was due in large part to the Wilpons ineptitude taking the Mets out of contention. During that time, the Dodgers became the model franchise finally breaking through and winning the 2020 World Series.
Now, with Steve Cohen at the helm, things promise to be different.
With Cohen comes real financial heft which arguably surpasses what the Dodgers have. We’ve seen early on what that means with the Mets already signing Trevor May and James McCann as well as being in the market for George Springer and Tomoyuki Sugano.
But, it’s not just the financial strength. It’s also the scouting and analytics. The Dodgers have used that to identify players like Max Muncy and Justin Turner who have become relative stars. They’ve also developed an enviable pipeline of talent with young players like Gavin Lux and Will Smith.
The Mets have started heading in that direction by bringing back Sandy Alderson. They’ve also hired Jared Porter as GM and Zack Scott as Assistant GM.
Of course, the Mets have retained perhaps the best draft scouting with Mark Tramuta, Tommy Tanous, Drew Toussaint, et al. That group is responsible for great talent like Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Seth Lugo, Brandon Nimmo, and Dominic Smith. That’s nothing to say of the talent still left in the system and traded away.
The Mets have the core, financial resources, burgeoning front office, and now the right ownership for the Mets to become a juggernaut like we haven’t seen from this franchise since the 1980s. They will very soon rival the Dodgers on and off the field.
That is going to lead to some more postseason run-ins. With that will be the heightening if tensions between these franchises which have already had their moments.
If the Mets make the right moves, we’ll see an epic postseason clash between these teams come October not just this year but in each of the ensuing seasons. The seeds are already there, and so, with more epic postseason series, we’ll see the makings of a bitter Mets/Dodgers rivalry.
The year 2020 was hard on us all, but there were some truly outstanding and unexpected uplifting moments scattered throughout the year. In no particular order here were some of the best moments for the New York Mets in 2020:
1. Steve Cohen purchases the Mets ending the Wilpons reign.
2. Dominic Smith finds his voice and that next level in his game.
3. Michael Conforto emerged as a real leader and showed he’s the star we all hoped he’d be.
4. While not winning the Cy Young, Jacob deGrom continued to prove he’s the best pitcher in the game.
5. Yoenis Cespedes gave us one last thrill with an Opening Day game winning homer.
6. Edwin Diaz returned to his dominant form.
7. Amed Rosario hit a walk-off homer at Yankee Stadium to beat the New York Yankees.
8. David Peterson and Andres Gimenez made the jump from Double-A and had strong rookie seasons.
9. Mets were once again allowed to wear the first responders caps.
10. Sandy Alderson returned restoring credibility to the franchise and was given the opportunity to win a World Series with the Mets.
11. Marcus Stroman accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Mets.
12. Players like Trevor May and James McCann were excited about the new era in Queens and wanted to be a part of it.
13. Pete Alonso proved his rookie year was no fluke putting himself on what would’ve been a 42 home run pace.
14. Although in a circuitous route, Luis Rojas got the manager job he earned and did enough to earn at least a second season at the helm.
15. Luis Guillorme was great with the glove and better than we ever anticipated he’d be at the plate.
16. Brandon Nimmo proved his neck problems were no more while remaining an on-base machine.
17. Rick Porcello got to live out his dream by pitching for the same Mets team he loved as a kid.
18. The 1986 Mets were dubbed the best team ever.
19. Alonso honored the greatest Met ever by hitting a walk-off homer the first game the Mets played after Tom Seaver passed.
20. It was only 60 games and the Mets finished in last place, but we got to see Mets baseball. For at least those 3+ hours a day, we felt normal.
If you’re reading this now, chances are you went through a lot this year. The good news is you’re reading this meaning you’ve survived the year and can have hope for a better 2021.
God willing, that 2021 will be our best year ever, and we will see a Mets World Series title.
The concept of the untouchable player is a fallacy. That goes for any player including Mike Trout. For the right price, even he could be traded.
That said, when we talk untouchable we mean a player who can’t be replaced on the roster. In terms of the Mets, there’s only three such players on the roster.
First and foremost, Jacob deGrom is untouchable. Not only has he established himself as the best pitcher in baseball, but he’s also on a very reasonable contract. There’s nothing on the free agent or trade market available where you can replace him.
The next untouchable player is Seth Lugo, and last season is exactly the reason why. In Lugo, the Mets have one of the best and most versatile relievers in baseball. He can pitch multiple innings, get a key out, and get the save.
If you’re in a jam, Lugo can also start. No, he is not nearly as dominant as a starter. However, he can be stretched to be either a dominant opener or a competent fifth starter. Looking across baseball, there really isn’t another pitcher who offers that, not even Josh Hader.
Finally, the Mets last untouchable is Jeff McNeil. He’s that mostly because his versatility allows the Mets to build the best possible roster.
McNeil is a good defender at second and left. He can hold his own at third and right. He’s a unique batter in this era in that he’s up to hit, and he puts the ball in play. In McNeil, you’re getting a modern day Ben Zobrist in the field and a slower version of Ichiro Suzuki at the plate.
In these three players, the Mets have truly unique players whose skill sets cannot easily be replicated. In fact, you can argue, their skill sets cannot be replicated. At their relative prices, it’s nearly impossible.
As for the rest of the roster, while there are extremely good players across, they just don’t rise to this level.
While you may want to argue Pete Alonso or Dominic Smith, they are both first baseman. In fact, they’re both All-Star caliber first basemen. Unfortunately, there’s just one first base, and there’s no DH.
Andres Gimenez is very promising, but this is an organization with a lot of shortstop talent. That includes Amed Rosario, who is a capable MLB starter, and Luis Guillorme, who deserves a fair shot to play everyday.
Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are approaching free agency soon, and the corner outfield position is one which can typically be filled easily. On that note, McNeil can fill one of their spots if necessary.
Like Conforto, Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard are pending free agents making them more movable than they otherwise would be. Also on the pitching front is Edwin Diaz. You’ve seen reason to believe in him and believe he can’t handle New York. At the end of the day, he’s a good closer, but the Mets can always obtain one of them in free agency.
So, overall, the Mets have a deep and interesting roster. However, there are many holes across the roster. Looking at this roster, short of deGrom, Lugo, or McNeil, any of these players should be on the table to address any of the deficiencies this team has.
When analyzing the New York Mets roster, there are a few things they need to transform a strong core to a true World Series contender. Some of those things are a third baseman, improved defense, and more right/left balance in the lineup.
That perfectly describes Nolan Arenado.
In his latest presser, without mentioning him by name, Sandy Alderson intimated Arenado would be the type of player the Mets could look to trade for this offseason. It should come as no surprise the Mets would.
Since the Mets last made the postseason in 2016, their defense has been an embarrassment. In fact, their -242 DRS over that timeframe is by far the worst in the majors.
One of the problem areas has been third where the team has accumulated a -26 DRS. That includes the -17 DRS the incumbent third baseman, J.D. Davis, has posted over the past two seasons.
Conversely, Arenado is an eight time Gold Glove winner. In fact, he’s a perfect 8/8 in his Major League career. Since 2017, he’s easily been the best third baseman in the NL with a 55 DRS. Replacing Davis with him would just be a staggeringly defensive upgrade.
Arenado isn’t remotely slipping defensively. In 2020, he had a 15 DRS and a 7 OAA. The previous season, he had an 18 DRS and a 16 OAA. By OAA, he’s been the best defensive third baseman in each of the past two seasons.
In addition to the phenomenal defense, Arenado is a good hitter.
No, he was not remotely good in a bizarre 2020 season. All of his offensive numbers cratered. However, this past season is a complete anomaly from what we’ve seen from him in his career.
Over the three previous seasons, Arenado had a 130 wRC+. That’s 29th best in the majors over that stretch. In terms of the Mets, only Brandon Nimmo has a better wRC+ over that stretch.
This means that quite arguably if the Mets were to obtain Arenado, he’d become their best player not named Jacob deGrom. Certainly, none of the current Mets can match Arenado’s ability to field and hit.
For those who are concerned his offense won’t translate, they’re worrying too much. Yes, like every other Rockies player, he’s always had pronounced home/road splits. However, as noted by Mike Petrillo of MLB.com, “there’s no evidence that a Rockies hitter who goes elsewhere and gets regular playing time is going to fall apart.”
So, essentially, if Arenado were to leave Colorado, we should anticipate him performing the same way he always has. There’s the obvious and fair caveat here that he really struggled in 2020. Although on that point, he has a shoulder injury to his non-throwing shoulder which could’ve impacted his performance.
When you boil it all down, Arenado is a great fit for the Mets. He vastly improves the defense, and he promises to be another right-handed threat in the lineup. In terms of fit, the Mets could not do any better.
Really, the question is what will it take to get him. He’s got a no trade clause and an opt out looming. Like last year, the Los Angeles Dodgers are interested. While the Rockies may be reticent to trade Arenado intradivision, the Dodgers present real leverage to extract the most value.
We can debate just how much the Mets should give up to obtain arguably the best third baseman in baseball. What isn’t up for debate is just how much of an improvement Arenado would be over what the Mets have had at third since David Wright.
In his introductory press conference, new New York Mets GM Jared Porter spoke about building depth across the 40 man roster. One area which desperately needs attention is the outfield.
Really, the Mets only have three outfielders on the roster with Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil. With respect to McNeil, he’s likely going to be the Opening Day second baseman.
Assuming the Mets sign a center fielder like George Springer, the team will still need a viable fourth outfielder who can step up and start on an extended basis if needed.
And no, Dominic Smith (-2 OAA) and J.D. Davis (-2 OAA) are not outfielders. Smith is a good defensive first baseman, and Davis is a DH. Instead of a first baseman in left, the Mets need an actual outfielder.
Looking at the free agents, there is one name which stands out – Yasiel Puig.
Puig is looking to return to baseball after missing the 2020 season. He had missed out for a variety of mostly inexplicable reasons.
First, he wasn’t signed during the original Spring Training. Then, he would sign a deal with the Atlanta Braves in July. However, that deal fell through when Puig tested positive for COVID19.
Likely, that leaves Puig looking for a one year deal to rebuild value. In the event there are no starting jobs available, the Mets would be a good fit.
When Puig last played, he still had very good speed. He also had improved defensive numbers in right after an unexpected one year drop off in 2018.
In 2019, he struggled offensively by his standards. His 101 wRC+ was tied for a career worst. That was surprising partially because he posted a career best exit velocity. Whatever the case, at worst, Puig can be anticipated provide league average offense. He has a much higher ceiling than that too.
Puig also has some defensive versatility. While he’s spent most of his career in right, he has played center and left. On that point, Puig has been playing center in the Winter Leagues.
Yasiel Puig, playing for the first time since last September, made this athletic play to rob #Angels Luis Rengifo of a hit in LIDOM tonight.
Puig’s initial read wasn’t great but the correction worked out
pic.twitter.com/3sfeeSCgC3— Maria Torres (@maria_torres3) December 11, 2020
That work helps him be more versatile. Having a bench player who can play all three outfield positions would be of an enormous benefit to the Mets.
Puig does seem well suited to play in New York as he thrives in the spotlight. He possesses all the tools to be successful with good speed as well as a history of playing good defense and posting strong offensive numbers.
All told, this would make him a great bench option and insurance policy against a Nimmo or Conforto injury. If MLB refuses to acknowledge reason and instead implemented the universal DH, Puig can help be part of that rotation.
There’s a lot of ways Puig can help the Mets, and he’s the best option available for this role. The only issue is whether he’s willing to accept this role. Given his year away from baseball, he might. If so, the Mets should push to sign him.
When it comes to Brandon Nimmo, there’s a lot to like. He hustles all the time, he’s fast, and he’s an on base machine. He’s also a pretty good defensive outfielder.
Well, that’s the case if you keep him out of center.
By all accounts, Nimmo should be good there. He’s got the speed to thrive. He busts it all the time. Seeing him at the plate, you know he has a good eye.
And yet, he’s never posted a positive DRS or UZR in center. He did enter 2020 with a 3 OAA, but with his -4 OAA in center this year, he’s a -1 OAA now for his career.
Now, you could make the argument Nimmo was a positive OAA in previous years, and as such, he could be counted upon to be that again. After all, 2020 was a bizarre year which led to many strange outlier results.
That said, 2020 was also the first time Nimmo was an everyday CF at the Major League level. As a result, all the stats we see on him are the results of a small sample size.
The only thing we can see is his OAA is starting to reflect what we’ve seen with his DRS and UZR. The reason for that is quite likely is his Jump numbers have always been poor.
In 2020, Nimmo was a -1.7 feet vs. average. The previous year he was -0.2. In 2018, he was a 0.1. Fact is, he’s not getting that initial break on the ball, and his ability to do so seems to be regressing.
Now, you could well argue he plays passable enough defense in center, and there is some indications he could halt the regression and improve. Unfortunately, that’s a poor approach to handling the position.
As previously noted, there’s a correlation between strong outfield defense and winning. That’s especially the case with CF defense. Take a look at the last few World Series winners:
- 2020 – Cody Bellinger (5 DRS/7 OAA)
- 2019 – Victor Robles (23 DRS/22 OAA)
- 2018 – Jackie Bradley Jr. (-1 DRS/9 OAA)
- 2017 – George Springer (6 DRS/1 OAA)
With respect to Bradley, that’s where we see a DRS/OAA split. While he rated poorly in DRS that season, he had a very strong 9 OAA. The DRS/OAA differences aside, we see strong center field defense is a necessity if you want to win.
Sure, Nimmo can be passable at times. You could argue he may not hurt you. However, he doesn’t help the Mets at a crucial defensive position, one of increased importance in the launch angle era.
Looking back at the above list, both Bradley and Springer are available this offseason. While Bradley may not be a good investment, Springer is everything the Mets need and want in center.
Springer is a good defensive center fielder. He’s a right handed bat in a heavy left handed hitting lineup. He’s a player who pushes Nimmo to LF where he belongs.
Nimmo is a good left fielder. Springer is a good center fielder. Finally, Michael Conforto is good in right. That’s an outfield alignment which helps secures outs and rakes. Arguably, it would be the best in the game.
No matter how many ways you look at it, the Mets are best served getting Nimmo out of center and getting a real center fielder, preferably Springer. If they do that, this Mets team takes a massive step forward towards winning a World Series.
There were some surprising non-tenders this year with David Dahl perhaps being the most surprising. After mashing his first two full seasons with the Colorado Rockies, the organization was perhaps too reactionary to his having one poor season at the plate which was by and large due to Dahl’s dealing with a shoulder injury which would need surgery.
Now, if Dahl’s shoulder is more serious than many anticipated, you could understand the non-tender. That said, it’s difficult to imagine a more severe shoulder injury than the one Michael Conforto suffered, and he re-emerged to play at an All-Star, near MVP level in 2020. So, for all intents and purposes, we should reasonably anticipate Dahl returning to form at some point in 2021.
That form was very impressive. From 2018 – 2019, Dahl hit .291/.342/.528. Sure, that was partially driven by his playing in Coors Field. That said, Dahl did have an 111 OPS+ meaning he is a well above average hitter. As we have seen, the Coors Field effect is more home/away splits during the course of a season, and it is not something which should translate to moving to a new team.
That said, there are some splits which are at least moderately concerning with Dahl. The left-handed hitter has been neutralized by left-handed pitching in his career. While Dahl has a strong .289/.342/.515 batting line against right-handed pitching, he has only hit .277/.312/.438 against left-handed pitching. That right there is an indication he is a poor fit for the New York Mets.
Right now, the Mets corner outfielders are Brandon Nimmo and Conforto. While Dahl has been a strong hitter, he has not been the caliber of hitter either Nimmo or Conforto has been. Moreover, Nimmo and Conforto are left-handed hitters who have handled left-handed pitching better than Dahl. Taking that into account, Dahl would not be coming to the Mets to supplant either one of those players in the everyday lineup.
That is somewhat important because it would seem Dahl at least has the talent to be considered a starting outfielder by any number of teams. Even if he were to shirk a starting job elsewhere to consider the Mets, he probably still isn’t a fit as a fourth outfielder. He can’t be used to platoon with either Nimmo or Conforto as they are all left-handed hitters. He also should not be used as a defensive replacement.
In his career, Dahl has not been a particularly good defensive outfielder. In his career, he has a a -1 OAA and a -7 DRS in left field. Now, to be fair, with the thin air and large outfield, Rockies outfielders usually rate poorly in defensive metrics. Looking at his defense, he does have good sprint speed of roughly 28.1 feet/sec. That would put him roughly as fast as Nimmo and faster than Conforto.
Realistically speaking, with Nimmo and Conforto in the way, the Mets do not have a starting outfield spot to offer Dahl, and realistically speaking, he is a poor fit as a complement to those two. Now, you could argue the Mets could sign Dahl to be their primary DH. However, there are two significant obstacles.
First and foremost, the NL will not have a DH in 2021. As per the agreement, the universal DH sunsetted at the expiration of the 2020 season. Even if it were to be re-adopted, the Mets have Pete Alonso already slated to be the DH with Dominic Smith taking over first base duties.
All told, every which angle you look at this, the Mets simply do not have a position to offer Dahl. At best, they can offer him a bench role for a very left-handed hitting team. Unless there is a trade or two, the Mets are better suited to setting their sights to one of the other available non-tendered players or other free agents.
Since Brodie Van Wagenen began assembling his team, the overture was this was a team well built for the DH. In 2020, because of a pandemic, the Mets actually did get that DH. After all that hypothesizing about how much it would help the Mets, the end result was a last place finish.
There are many reasons why, and assuredly many would point to the pitching. However, it went much deeper than that. One of the big issues was team defense.
Again, the Mets team defense was atrocious with a -22 DRS. That was good for fifth worst in the majors. Over the past three seasons, the Mets -171 DRS is the worst in the National League and second worst in all of the majors.
This is in large part to an organizational philosophy which pre-dated Van Wagenen. The thought was to acquire as many bats as possible and to find a position for them. The Mets have been all too happy to get players and just stick them somewhere on the diamond.
This has led to J.D. Davis at third and left. Dominic Smith in left field. Brandon Nimmo in center. Michael Conforto playing all three outfield positions. Jeff McNeil playing four different positions. This goes on and on, and in some ways you can trace this tomfoolery all the way back to Lucas Duda playing the outfield.
Perhaps part of this has been the result of Jeff Wilpon running the baseball operations. That said, there has been a prevailing thought process with the Mets to not make the difficult decisions and to hold onto all of their good players. They have found it more prudent to play players out of position resulting in horrible defense, and as a result, the team failing to live up to their sometimes lofty expectations.
Now, taking a look at the Mets current roster, you can say Smith at first base and Pete Alonso at DH is an embarrassment of riches. In Alonso and Smith, the Mets have two cornerstone cost controlled players. As an organization, this is quite an enviable position. When you have those two spots with such high caliber and ceiling players, you don’t want to move on from them. That goes double when you can play them each everyday at first base and DH.
However, that is part of the problem.
While the Mets are set at first and DH, they are a disaster at other important positions. They don’t have a starting catcher, and really, their depth at the position is a question mark. They have no one really capable of playing third base on an everyday basis. They lack anyone in the organization truly capable of playing center everyday. The Mets desperately need at least 2/5 of a starting rotation filled, and they also need to build a bullpen.
Beyond that, the Mets have zero depth at Triple-A, and their Double-A depth is questionable. Put another way, the Mets are a mess, and even with Steve Cohen’s deep pockets, not every one of these areas can be addressed in free agency. It just can’t.
No, the Mets need to be put in a difficult position to have to make hard decisions. Frankly, the trade market sets up extraordinarily well for that right now. At the moment, we know Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, and Blake Snell on the trade bloc. There are very likely other high profile players there for the taking as well.
Given how Van Wagenen ravaged the Mets farm system, there really isn’t the prospect capital to make those trades. Sure, you can trade a Brett Baty or a Mark Vientos, but if you do that, you take the paper thin depth you have and tear through it leaving you with next to no hope for the future. No, if the Mets are going to take that next step, they are going to have to take the surplus they have at positions like first, and they are going to have to make hard choices and make shrewd trades for top end talent at areas they have significant deficiencies.
If there is no DH, the Mets would almost be forced to move at least one of Alonso or Smith to get that top end player. However, with the DH, the impetus is not there. In fact, you could argue it irresponsible to not go into next season with both Alonso and Smith if there was a DH. As noted, therein lies the problem.
The Mets aren’t really in a position to trade top end talent for top end talent in a world where there is a DH. But, if they want real baseball in the National League in 2021, the Mets would be in prime position to do it, and teams would likely line up to grab one of Alonso or Smith thereby driving up the return the Mets could receive.
So yes, given the roster construct, you could argue the Mets are better with the DH. However, in terms of building the roster, the DH stagnates growth and creativity. The impetus to make a trade is gone, and with that, you likely lose out on the ability to make the Mets the best possible team they could be in 2021.
And besides all of that, the DH is bad for the Mets because it is bad for baseball. The short-sighted hope for 2021 needs to be counter-balanced against the next 10-100 years. When you look at it that way, pushing for a completely ineffective gimmick is just plain bad for baseball, and as a result, bad for the Mets.
The Mets had real issues regarding roster construction and much of it was related to Robinson Cano. His presence was a complication forcing a number of bad decisions.
With Cano at second, Jeff McNeil was displaced from the position he played best. That meant he moved to third where his arm didn’t translate well or left field.
If he was in left field, that meant Brandon Nimmo moved to center where he was ill suited. Really, every permutation of the lineup necessitated Nimmo in CF.
The Mets have two everyday caliber first basemen in Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith. If Cano needed to DH, that meant both first basemen played in the field.
That moved the Mets best defensive first baseman in Smith to left where he’s not particularly good. That was exacerbated by Alonso being a poor defensive first baseman.
Really, when you look at it, the necessity to play Cano and his $20.25 million salary just forces a series of terrible decisions. That’s a large reason why the Mets never hit their supposed ceiling – the defense was that bad and held the team back.
Now, with Cano gone for the 2021 season much of the Mets problems have been solved.
McNeil can now be the everyday second baseman. Nimmo can then go back to a corner outfield position where he belongs. Assuming the return of the DH, Alonso can DH with Smith at first.
As if this wasn’t good enough, the Mets have an additional $20.25 million to allocate towards their holes at catcher, third, center, and the pitching staff.
Every way you look at this, Cano testing positive is good news for the Mets, and that’s even before you account for any regression you should’ve expected from the now 38 year old. If this invites a buy out, this could make the situation even better.
With one incredibly poor decision by Cano, the Mets defense has been substantially improved, and they have enough resources to sign up to two additional impact players they may not have been otherwise able to sign. That’s why Cano’s positive test is great news for the Mets.
In what has been the complete polar opposite of Wilpon driven offseasons, the New York Mets are getting linked to nearly every free agent. The latest name to surface is Marcell Ozuna.
This is one which should stay a rumor because Ozuna is a very poor fit for the Mets.
That’s not to say Ozuna isn’t a good player. In his career, Ozuna has shown himself to be a good baseball player who has shown flashes of brilliance. That includes this past season with the Atlanta Braves where he led the league in homers while having the third best OPS+.
This was his best ever season at the plate. There are reasons to buy in on him producing at this level next year. Those reasons include his barrel percentage as well as his hard hit and whiff rates.
There are also reasons to believe he’ll regress. That includes this being a shortened season as well as his .396 BABIP, which was higher than his .319 career mark.
Regardless of which direction he’ll trend, the ultimate question for the Mets is how can they use him.
In his time with the Marlins, Ozuna was a great defensive outfielder. That includes his winning the 2017 Gold Glove. Since winning that award, it’s been a steep decline.
Ozuna went from a 7 DRS that year to a 0 this year. He had a -8 OAA last year and a -1 this year. This is indicative of a now over 30 outfielder who was primarily used at DH.
Simply put, a -8 OAA is unplayable out there. It’s even worse when shoulder injuries have cost him the ability to make strong or even poor throws. It’s a poor combination. With him having below average spring speed and his turning 30, the days of him being an even semi-regular outfielder have passed.
Of course, that’s not an issue with the Mets. With Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo, they are well set at the corner outfield position. They have good depth there with Jeff McNeil able to play out there quite well.
The problem with the Mets is they are also overly stacked at the DH position. That includes their right-handed hitting options.
As we saw last year, if there is going to be a DH, it should be Pete Alonso. Statistically, he’s been just about the worst defender at first, and his moving there allows Dominic Smith and his bat and glove to get into the lineup everyday.
There’s also the Robinson Cano issue. While he was quite good defensively at second last year, his playing second everyday at the age of 38 would be fairly unprecedented.
Ideally, Cano would be the everyday DH. This would keep him and his bat in the lineup everyday. It would also open up second for McNeil which is his best position.
Looking at it, the Mets have two bats in Alonso and Cano who ideally need to DH. They need to DH due to their own skill sets in addition to getting other very talented players in the lineup. Adding Ozuna to this mix only unnecessarily muddies the waters.
Sure, keeping tabs on Ozuna makes sense. That goes double if there is a big deal to be made for a Francisco Lindor, Nolan Arenado, or the players available in the Cubs fire-sale.
When you break it down, the Mets really could use right-handed balance in their lineup. However, with Alonso at DH, Ozuna is not a fit. As such, the Mets are better off pursuing that bat in the form of James McCann/J.T. Realmuto and/or George Springer.