Brandon Nimmo

2022 MLB Predictions

It’s Opening Day, so it is time to make some predictions (sure to be wrong) about the 2022 season.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL East – Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays have the biggest home field advantage with Canada’s vaccine rules. Opponents will be missing key players whenever they visit. For example, Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole.

AL Central – Minnesota Twins

The Chicago White Sox might be better full strength, but losing Lance Lynn is a huge blow. The Twins also made some huge moves adding Carlos Correa, who is among the best in baseball, and they bolstered the rotation with Sonny Gray. With some health from Byron Buxton, they’ll be unstoppable.

AL West – Los Angeles Angels

With Noah Syndergaard, the Angels finally got that big top of the rotation starter, and they addressed the pen adding Aaron Loup. Oh, and by the way, they have the two best players in all of baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.

AL Wild Card 1 – Tampa Bay Rays – They’re the Rays. They do this better than everyone, and they will have a full season of Wander Franco and Josh Lowe.

AL Wild Card 2 – Chicago White Sox – Even with the loss of Lynn, there is still more than enough there to get this team back to the postseason.

AL Wild Card 3 – Houston Astros – Many seem to be downplaying the loss of Correa, but in the end, that division appears to be so weak, especially with the Athletics stripping down, they can still make the postseason.

AL MVP – Mike Trout – For those who forgot, this is still Mike Trout. With a healthy season, he’ll remind everyone there is no one better.

AL Cy Young – Alek Manoah – This is a darkhorse candidate for sure, but his spin and velocity numbers are off the charts. Also, if the Blue Jays can make Robbie Ray a Cy Young, they sure can do the same with a former first round pick.

AL Rookie of the Year – Bobby Witt Jr. – He seems the consensus pick and for good reason. He’s got the tools, and he’s playing for a team who will let him play.

AL Manager of the Year – Rocco Baldelli – This usually nothing more than an award for whose team exceeded expectations, and it will likely be the Twins this year.

National League

NL East – New York Mets

Yes, the Mets have lost Jacob deGrom, and Brandon Nimmo is battling injuries. However, this is a much improved club over the team who was atop the Atlanta Braves in the standings most of last year. Remember, that Braves team has lost Freddie Freeman, don’t have Ronald Acuna Jr.. back yet, and that bullpen which carried them was taxed.

NL Central – St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals were a disappointment for much of last year, but they turned it on late. They are more analytically inclined to match that roster.

NL West – Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers are a juggernaut, and they are just going to keep going out and finding ways and players to beat you. Keep in mind, they almost won the pennant, and they added Freeman to an already absolutely stacked roster.

NL Wild Card 1 – Milwaukee Brewers – Aside from the Mets, they have the best rotation in the National League, and that will help carry them to the postseason even in Christian Yelich is still not back to being in his MVP form.

NL Wild Card 2 – San Francisco Giants – They’ll miss Buster Posey and Kevin Gausman, but this was still a very deep team, and they have the players and organization to keep this a postseason caliber team, especially in an expanded postseason format.

NL Wild Card 3 – Philadelphia Phillies – No, the Phillies cannot catch the ball. However, they can absolutely mash, and in that ballpark, they will wear opposing staffs out. They also have the top of the rotation and manager in Joe Girardi to do enough to stay above .500 (again) to claim the last spot.

NL MVP – Francisco Lindor – We’ve seen it time and again with the Mets. The first year is the transition year. The second is the break out year. Mike Piazza and Carlos Beltran were denied their MVP, but Lindor will not be this season.

NL Cy Young – Zack Wheeler – Wheeler was an unappreciated ace level pitcher when he was with the Mets, but with the Phillies, he has gotten the chance to shine. He should’ve won last year. He won’t be denied this year.

NL Rookie of the Year – Keibert Ruiz – The Nationals are going to let him play, and he has shown some signs in his brief Major League career.

NL Manager of the Year – Buck Showalter – Again, this is a narrative award, and if the Mets win the division, he is going to get it.

Postseason

Wild Card Round

Astros over Angels
White Sox over Rays

Mets over Phillies
Brewers over Giants

Divisional Round

Blue Jays over Astros
White Sox over Twins

Dodgers over Brewers
Mets over Cardinals

League Championship Series

Blue Jays over White Sox
MVP – George Springer

Mets over Dodgers
MVP – Jacob deGrom

World Series

Mets over Blue Jays
MVP – Brandon Nimmo

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Mets Depth Being Tested Before They Play A Game

Well, it didnt’ take long for the New York Mets depth to be tested. Jacob deGrom is out for about half of the season with a stress reaction in his right scapula. Max Scherzer has a hamstring issue. Taijuan Walker has issues with his surgically repaired knee. Brandon Nimmo needs cortisone shots in the neck he injured last season.

Buck Showalter is talking about the Opening Day starter being one of Tylor Megill, David Peterson, or Trevor Williams. Travis Jankowski, Peterson, and Nick Plummer have been put on the taxi squad awaiting the call-up. Without even playing a game, this is far from the situation the Mets thought they would be.

However, this does underscore the job the Mets did this offseason to address their overall depth.

In years past, at least one of Megill or Peterson (;ikely both) would have been guaranteed a rotation spot, and Williams would have been non-tendered. Instead, all three are there to provide innings if needed. More than that, the team still has Jose Butto in the minors. There is depth here allowing the Mets to throw credible Major League starters even in the absence of at least three starting pitchers.

In terms of the outfield, the depth is there to sustain a Nimmo injury. The question is whether the Mets do what needs to be done on that front.

In all honesty, the Mets fourth best outfielder is Jeff McNeil. If Nimmo’s injury is serious enough to necessitate an IL stint, McNeil should shift out to left field allowing the team to see just how much Robinson Cano has in the tank. In some ways, this would be the best test for the team to see what Cano can actually provide to this team.

However, in all likelihood, they will play Dominic Smith in left. On one hand, this underscores just how much the Mets needed Smith and why they were smart not to trade him. On the other hand, Smith isn’t a good left fielder underscoring why the Mets should go out and re-sign Michael Conforto.

Whatever the case, the Mets have versatile players, and they have credible Major League players to plug into the lineup even without 3/5 of their rotation and their starting center fielder. This underscores the good work the team did in the offseason. However, the proof is in the pudding, and we won’t find out just how good of a job the Mets did until we see how it translates on the field.

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Mets Can’t Win In 2022 With deGrom Hurt

After dealing with injuries for two straight seasons, Jacob deGrom had to be scratched with a shoulder issue. With deGrom injured, there’s just no way the New York Mets can win this year.

Pitching is everything in baseball, and that goes double for the Mets. This team was built to win with their starting rotation, especially the two-headed monster of deGrom and Max Scherzer.

Right away, those plans have been blown up. What’s left is an interesting roster, but one with holes across the board.

Instead of building a great bullpen, the Mets let Aaron Loup go and replaced him with Adam Ottavino and Chasen Shreve. With that they took an under-performing unit in 2021 and made it worse. Basically, they’re relying on Seth Lugo and Drew Smith to stay healthy, which is like expecting deGrom to be healthy as well.

Lugo and Smith aren’t the only injury concerns. There is also their entire starting outfield of Mark Canha, Starling Marte, and Brandon Nimmo. That trio never lasts a full season, and to compound matters, the team isn’t carrying a real fourth outfielder on the roster.

Fielding is also an issue. Eduardo Escobar isn’t a third baseman. Jeff McNeil refused to follow the defensive alignments. Then, there is the matter of James McCann behind the plate. He wasn’t what the Mets anticipated what he would be, and instead, he was McCann from before his career year.

Other areas of concern include exactly how the DH situation will be resolved. Robinson Cano probably has the best bat, but that is also when he is using steroids. Dominic Smith is a better first baseman, but the team won’t relegate Pete Alonso to DH because he is the crown jewel. Lets not mention J.D. Davis here either.

On that DH and fielding point, you wonder just how much the Mets are going to put out their best alignments in the field. There is some promise with Marte being named the right fielder, but then again, the team isn’t trying McNeil at third despite the fact he’s the best third baseman and really the only one on the roster. Looking at this Mets team, they could put out a Gold Glove caliber defense across the board, but they just refused to do so.

Likely, it is because even with the Wilpons gone, this team still isn’t just letting the baseball people make all the decisions. To be fair, that was a Sandy Alderson calling card. After all, he’s the guy who was rumored to have offered Michael Jordan a Major League deal when he was the Oakland Athletics GM, and Alderson did sign Tim Tebow. In the end, Alderson can’t just shake that carnival act part of the job. When and if he does, this Mets team will finally be special.

Sooner or later, things will change and people will catch-on. Until that point, we just have to move past today and look forward to the day when the Mets can sustain more than just one big injury to be contenders. To that point, Michael Conforto is still out there, and the team does have the money to address other areas. However, at this point, who knows?

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So, Which Mets Have Been Vaccinated?

The Brooklyn Nets season has been altered because then Mayor Bill DeBlasio instituted a COVID19 vaccine mandate for private employers. As a result, Kyrie Irving was only permitted to play in road games. What made the rule obtuse was road players who had not been vaccinated could play in Brooklyn.

However, the rules are the rules. The same goes for when the indoor vaccine mandates were lifted with the private employer ones in place. As a result, Irving could attend Nets games, but he could not play in them.

Of course, the easy answer would be for Irving to get the vaccine. That goes without saying, but we also know he isn’t. More than that, we do know there are going to be baseball players who do not have the vaccine. With the vaccine mandates still in place, yes even for outdoor games played for a private employer, there are potentially going to be New York Mets and New York Yankees players who have not been vaccinated.

As we have seen by and through the reports of Mike Puma of the New York Post, Francisco Lindor, Max Scherzer, Jeff McNeil, and Robinson Cano have been vaccinated. When presented with the question, Jacob deGrom, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and J.D. Davis declined to answer. Then, there is Jordan Yamamoto, who took a completely different approach to answering the question en route to being the first player optioned to minor league Spring Training:

Now, it is important to note declining to answer is not exactly the same thing as not being vaccinated. Also, as we saw with Aaron Rodgers saying you are vaccinated or “innoculated” doesn’t definitively mean you received the COVID19 vaccine. Moreover, as we saw with Antonio Brown, actually having a vaccine card doesn’t mean you’re vaccinated.

Whatever the case, sooner or later, we will discover which Mets have been vaccinated. If they are, they will be eligible to play games at Citi Field. If they’re not, they can’t, and the Mets are going to have to figure out how exactly to fill their roster spots. Like Irving, the simplest solution is for those players to get vaccinated, and it’s possible those players still might as that mandate does not appear to be getting lifted anytime soon.

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Mets Roster Still Feels Very Incomplete

The New York Mets have the rotation which can win them a World Series. That goes double when the top of your rotation is Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. That said, this is a roster which still needs help.

The outfield is more than set with Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Mark Canha. However, they are not a trio who historically lasts a season. That is going to leave the team shallow for good chunks of the season just hoping Khalil Lee figures it out or Nick Plummer can prove last season was him making his march to the majors.

The infield is also set, but that could be a problem as well. Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor seem to be well past their issues, and they promise to be an elite double play combination on the field and at the plate. Pete Alonso made strides defensively and has likely dedicated himself to be even better. However, Eduardo Escobar has always been a poor third baseman, and now, he is going to be asked to play there everyday.

The catching situation is a bit of a mess. James McCann regressed in all areas of his game last season. Unless he starts hitting or framing better, the Mets are going to have to try to pivot to Tomas Nido depsite McCann’s big contract. On that note, Nido remains elite defensively, but he still has issues at the plate.

Looking at the bench, Dominic Smith is a first baseman, and J.D. Davis has no position, which admittedly is much less of an issue with the DH. Robinson Cano has the contract and bat to justify playing everyday, but that is only if he is Cano. Really, at this point, no one knows if he can, but you have to assume with the backing of Buck Showalter he just might get the opportunity to prove he still is.

Luis Guillorme is a great defender who will struggle to find playing time. His pinch hitting ability has also been neutralized with the universal DH. Fortunately, he does seem to finally have a believer in what he brings to a team in Showalter.

Honestly, the concerns over the bullpen is muchado about nothing. Edwin Diaz can close even if he’s not the most reliable. Trevor May is a very good late inning reliever. With the injury concerns past him, Seth Lugo can get back to being Lugo. Drew Smith is on the verge of a breakout. Miguel Castro is good against left-handed batters, and Adam Ottavino gives a different look.

With all the pitching the Mets have a great mix and actual depth which goes down to the Triple-A level. It is something they have not had in quite some time. However, as noted, from a position player standpoint, this team needs some real help. It’s another reminder Michael Conforto is still a free agent, and maybe, it’s a call for one of the players in the organization to step forward and claim a spot.

The Mets need that to happen because the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers continue attacking this offseason looking to push towards winning the 2022 World Series. The Mets have the pitching to get there, but now , they really need to make sure they have everything else.

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Robinson Cano Is Back, Now What?

Robinson Cano came back, and he apparently offered an apology to the team and the press. Now, he wouldn’t tell us why he took the PEDs, but he said he might tell us one day. Of course, the answer was to return to form, but we’ll let him say it or his other excuse another day.

According to Buck Showalter, Cano is a guy who can hit until he is 50. That was actually something we used to say about former Met Julio Franco, and he nearly did. What is notable with Franco was he was a solid pinch hitter and clubhouse presence for that 2006 NL East winning New York Mets team. In some ways, you could compare him to 1985 Rusty Staub.

Of course, that pinch hitting role doesn’t quite exist anymore, at least, not in the same way it used to exist. Now, we have the universal DH. As a result, you’re not quite burning that guy who should be pinch hitting and not quite stepping on the field. Even if these Mets seem to acknowledge a sunk cost, it is difficult to imagine them paying Cano $20.25 million to fulfill that role.

That begs the question as to what his role will be. Jeff McNeil was announced as the starter for second base, which as we all know, is Cano’s position. The Mets gave Eduardo Escobar starter money, and as a result, we can assume he will be the everyday third baseman. That pretty much leaves Cano with either the DH or a utility role.

On the later, Cano is said to be working at second and first. We know he has played some third, and there are indications he could be good there. However, lost in all of that is the fact Cano is 39 and did not play at all last year. Overall, we don’t know where his conditioning is and just how much he can withstand the 162 game grind anymore.

Maybe, Cano can be the DH. However, the Mets have Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith. There is also the fact their starting outfield of Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, and Mark Canha have all had durability issues in their career, and they could probably use the DH break every now and then while the Mets keep their bats in the lineup.

In the end, there is really no clear role for Cano. Ultimately, that may just mean Cano sits around with the Mets picking and choosing his spots until an injury happens or someone struggles necessitating Cano to be plugged into the lineup. Whatever the case, Cano’s role isn’t so much a problem for this team inasmuch as it is something which needs addressing to make sure it won’t be an issue during the season.

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Mets Still Need Michael Conforto

The New York Mets have done a lot of work this offseason, and they have transformed their team. The Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt additions have made the rotation deeper, and with Jacob deGrom atop the rotation, the Mets are going to be extremely tough to beat.

The lineup was retooled with Mark Canha, Eduardo Escobar, and Starling Marte. Despite that, even with the return of Robinson Cano from his suspension, the Mets likely find themselves one player short from being a real complete team. That player is Michael Conforto.

As detailed first on the Simply Amazin podcast, the Mets outfield really does remain a question mark. We got the first glimpse of that when Marte reporting to Spring Training with a strained oblique. For as good as he is, Marte has played over 132 games in a season once since 2016.

Brandon Nimmo presents a similar problem. Nimmo is arguably the Mets best hitter, and he showed the ability to be a good center fielder in 2021. However, he carries the same injury problems as Marte. In 2018, Nimmo played 140 games. That is his career best with 92 games being his second highest. Like Marte, you can’t trust Nimmo to stay on the field and be healthy for 162 games.

Canha played 141 games last season. That was a career high with his previous career high being 126. Canha is also going to be 33, and he has shown real signs of decline in his career. When healthy, this is a good outfield, but they’re not always healthy, and at their ages, there is some risk with Marte and Canha in decline.

This is where the universal DH can help the Mets. Instead of signing a player like Kyle Schwarber to be the DH, using it for Pete Alonso to get Dominic Smith to play first, trying Cano, or really any other iteration, the Mets could sign Conforto and use the DH to rotate between these outfielders to keep them all fresh and healthy.

With Conforto, you still have a player in his prime, and when healthy, Conforto is a great hitter and defender. Yes, Conforto had a down 2021, but that was in part due to his COVID infection and ensuing injuries. Despite that, Conforto still had a 118 wRC+ in the second half. Again, he showed us he can still hit.

This is also a player who has not only been a leader for the Mets, but he has also shown he can handle New York. That is something which gets lost in the shuffle sometimes. Conforto has seen it all with the Mets, and he has been a player with no controversy, emerged as a leader, and has been an All-Star. He knows what it’s like to play on the biggest stage in the biggest city in the world.

Believe it or not, even with all the moves to move on from Conforto, this roster is likely a left-handed batter short. They’re also an everyday outfielder short. Really, when you break it all down, they are a Michael Conforto short. Luckily for them, he’s still out there giving the Mets the chance to bring him back and let him lead the team to the World Series.

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Simply Amazin: Looking Bleak Podcast

Due to site difficulties, this is going up a week later than anticipated, but fortunately (or unfortunately), all of what was discussed remains relevant. Players discussed during this podcast included Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso, Melvin Mora, Mike Bordick, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha, Starling Marte, Billy Taylor, Jason Isringhausen, Matt Harvey, Dwight Gooden, Darryl Strawberry, Josh Hamilton, David Wright, Ike Davis, Jake Marisnick, Blake Taylor, Dominic Smith, Robinson Cano, Eduardo Escobar, Shawon Dunston, Craig Paquette, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Beltran,  and many, many more.

As always, thanks to Timothy Rider. It was an absolute blast. Please take a listen to the Simply Amazin podcast (by clicking on this link).

 

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Kyle Schwarber Could Be Game Changer For Mets

There are rumors the New York Mets may have interest in Kyle Schwarber. Given the construct of the Mets roster, it was certainly a name you did not expect to hear them connected to for this offseason.

Schwarber came up as a left fielder with the Chicago Cubs out of necessity. The thing is he’s terrible in the outfield. For the Mets, that’s not a big deal as they already have Mark Canha, Staling Marte, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo.

After he was traded to the Boston Red Sox, he started playing some first base. That made sense given the fact that many assumed this is where he would eventually land. However, the Mets have Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith. Considering Schwarber was terrible there, that’s not exactly a disappointment.

Really, when looking at Schwarber, all he can do is hit. Man-o-man, can he hit.

Last year, Schwarber hit .266/.374/.554 with 19 doubles, 32 homers, and 71 RBI. He posted a 148 OPS+ and a 145 wRC+. Had he been on the Mets, that would have made him their best hitter. In fact, the last time the Mets had someone with an OPS+ that high over a full 162 game season was Nimmo in 2018. Before that, it was David Wright in 2013. Yes, it has been that long.

In some ways, it was a career best year, but in reality it was him living up to his full potential at the plate. On that note, he is still just 28 years old. His exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrels are off the charts. His eye is superb too. Yes, there is swing and miss, but he either annihilates the ball or walks. It doesn’t matter who you have on your team, if there is a DH, you absolutely need a Schwarber on your team.

Now, that would create a logjam for the Mets. They are already saddled with the Robinson Cano conundrum. The DH could’ve afforded them the opportunity to have Smith play first with Alonso at first, a situation where we saw Smith come alive in 2020. They could’ve used it on a rotating basis with some older and injury prone players in their lineup. Really, there are a lot of things they could have opted to do.

However, you throw those plans out when you have Schwarber. It is also important to remember you can never have enough depth. We saw that with the Mets last season as the proverbial bench mob helped keep the Mets afloat. It should also be noted Schwarber also has the ability to at least stand at first or in left on a one game basis. That has enormous value as well.

Anyway you look at it, Schwarber is a difference changing bat the Mets could have in their lineup. If there is an NL DH, the Mets need to heavily pursue Schwarber to be that DH. He is just the perfect fit for this team, and he would take the Mets to another level offensively. With that, the Mets become that much closer to moving from legitimate World Series contender to World Series favorites.

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Buck Showalter Has Chance At Hall Of Fame

While Buck Showalter may not have been the right fit for the New York Mets job, this job was the perfect fit for him. This is a job where Showalter can cement his legacy, and depending on how everything goes, it’s possible he has a shot at the Hall of Fame.

As we have seen with the media coverage, Showalter has been well respected in the game. That goes to every media person, and we have seen former players Zack Britton, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Mark Teixeira speak highly of him. There are reasons why that is the case.

Showalter has his strengths. He is a good communicator. He develops players. He knows this game inside and out. No, he doesn’t know analytics well, and he has been adverse to them, but he’s a lifer who knows the game.

The biggest knock on Showalter is teams have won after he has left. The 1996 Yankees. The 2001 Diamondbacks. Both World Series championships came after Showalter has been fired. As we saw with the Britton issue in the ALDS, there are a number of reasons why Showalter hasn’t won a ring..

However, the Mets now present that opportunity. He has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer atop the rotation, that’s even better than Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling (who Showalter didn’t win with). As we have seen before the lockout, Steve Cohen is going to do everything he can to win the 2022 World Series. He is spending like we haven’t seen a team spend in ages, perhaps ever.

This will be a Mets team built to win in the postseason. There is the vaunted top of the rotation. Francisco Lindor in year two. Brandon Nimmo moving to right field where he will thrive along Starling Marte. Pete Alonso hitting tape measure shots. The pieces are there, and there will be more to come. The challenge for Showalter will be to let his best players win instead of going to Jack McDowell or Ubaldo Jimenez.

If he is now truly receptive to analytics for the first time in his career, wonderful things can and will happen. His reward will be completely changing the narrative on his career. Now, Showalter will be the manager who builds winners and can take them over the top.

He will then have at least three Manager of the Year awards. By winning  a World Series, he would join Bobby Cox, Jim Leyland, and Tony La Russa as the only managers to win three awards and a World Series. Leyland is the only one not in the Hall of Fame. If Showalter were to win two World Series, he would join Sparky Anderson, Tommy Lasorda, Joe Torre, and La Russa as the only managers to win multiple Manager of the Year awards and multiple World Series.

The Mets will put Showalter in a position to win those World Series titles. That will come in the form of both players and with information. Everything will be there for Showalter. If he is willing to grow as a manager and accept the more collaborative role, he will get that elusive ring, and quite possibly, he will be enshrined in Cooperstown.

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