Brandon Nimmo
There are rumors the New York Mets may have interest in Kyle Schwarber. Given the construct of the Mets roster, it was certainly a name you did not expect to hear them connected to for this offseason.
Schwarber came up as a left fielder with the Chicago Cubs out of necessity. The thing is he’s terrible in the outfield. For the Mets, that’s not a big deal as they already have Mark Canha, Staling Marte, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo.
After he was traded to the Boston Red Sox, he started playing some first base. That made sense given the fact that many assumed this is where he would eventually land. However, the Mets have Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith. Considering Schwarber was terrible there, that’s not exactly a disappointment.
Really, when looking at Schwarber, all he can do is hit. Man-o-man, can he hit.
Last year, Schwarber hit .266/.374/.554 with 19 doubles, 32 homers, and 71 RBI. He posted a 148 OPS+ and a 145 wRC+. Had he been on the Mets, that would have made him their best hitter. In fact, the last time the Mets had someone with an OPS+ that high over a full 162 game season was Nimmo in 2018. Before that, it was David Wright in 2013. Yes, it has been that long.
In some ways, it was a career best year, but in reality it was him living up to his full potential at the plate. On that note, he is still just 28 years old. His exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrels are off the charts. His eye is superb too. Yes, there is swing and miss, but he either annihilates the ball or walks. It doesn’t matter who you have on your team, if there is a DH, you absolutely need a Schwarber on your team.
Now, that would create a logjam for the Mets. They are already saddled with the Robinson Cano conundrum. The DH could’ve afforded them the opportunity to have Smith play first with Alonso at first, a situation where we saw Smith come alive in 2020. They could’ve used it on a rotating basis with some older and injury prone players in their lineup. Really, there are a lot of things they could have opted to do.
However, you throw those plans out when you have Schwarber. It is also important to remember you can never have enough depth. We saw that with the Mets last season as the proverbial bench mob helped keep the Mets afloat. It should also be noted Schwarber also has the ability to at least stand at first or in left on a one game basis. That has enormous value as well.
Anyway you look at it, Schwarber is a difference changing bat the Mets could have in their lineup. If there is an NL DH, the Mets need to heavily pursue Schwarber to be that DH. He is just the perfect fit for this team, and he would take the Mets to another level offensively. With that, the Mets become that much closer to moving from legitimate World Series contender to World Series favorites.
While Buck Showalter may not have been the right fit for the New York Mets job, this job was the perfect fit for him. This is a job where Showalter can cement his legacy, and depending on how everything goes, it’s possible he has a shot at the Hall of Fame.
As we have seen with the media coverage, Showalter has been well respected in the game. That goes to every media person, and we have seen former players Zack Britton, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Mark Teixeira speak highly of him. There are reasons why that is the case.
Showalter has his strengths. He is a good communicator. He develops players. He knows this game inside and out. No, he doesn’t know analytics well, and he has been adverse to them, but he’s a lifer who knows the game.
The biggest knock on Showalter is teams have won after he has left. The 1996 Yankees. The 2001 Diamondbacks. Both World Series championships came after Showalter has been fired. As we saw with the Britton issue in the ALDS, there are a number of reasons why Showalter hasn’t won a ring..
However, the Mets now present that opportunity. He has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer atop the rotation, that’s even better than Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling (who Showalter didn’t win with). As we have seen before the lockout, Steve Cohen is going to do everything he can to win the 2022 World Series. He is spending like we haven’t seen a team spend in ages, perhaps ever.
This will be a Mets team built to win in the postseason. There is the vaunted top of the rotation. Francisco Lindor in year two. Brandon Nimmo moving to right field where he will thrive along Starling Marte. Pete Alonso hitting tape measure shots. The pieces are there, and there will be more to come. The challenge for Showalter will be to let his best players win instead of going to Jack McDowell or Ubaldo Jimenez.
If he is now truly receptive to analytics for the first time in his career, wonderful things can and will happen. His reward will be completely changing the narrative on his career. Now, Showalter will be the manager who builds winners and can take them over the top.
He will then have at least three Manager of the Year awards. By winning a World Series, he would join Bobby Cox, Jim Leyland, and Tony La Russa as the only managers to win three awards and a World Series. Leyland is the only one not in the Hall of Fame. If Showalter were to win two World Series, he would join Sparky Anderson, Tommy Lasorda, Joe Torre, and La Russa as the only managers to win multiple Manager of the Year awards and multiple World Series.
The Mets will put Showalter in a position to win those World Series titles. That will come in the form of both players and with information. Everything will be there for Showalter. If he is willing to grow as a manager and accept the more collaborative role, he will get that elusive ring, and quite possibly, he will be enshrined in Cooperstown.
If you want to know the importance of what the Max Scherzer signing with the New York Mets is, look to the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s really the last time we saw this.
The Diamondbacks had added Curt Schilling at the 2000 trade deadline, but that team couldn’t stay in the race. That wouldn’t be an issue the following season.
Schilling combined with Randy Johnson to be one of the most lethal, if not the most lethal co-aces atop a rotation. The result was a 92 win season.
It’s difficult to argue they didn’t do it themselves. Schilling and Johnson both pitched over 249 innings and had an ERA under 3.00. The rest of the rotation struggled, and the bullpen wasn’t great aside from Byung-Hun Kim and Bret Prinz.
Offensively, that was one of the worst teams you could imagine for a World Series winner. Consider, Luis Gonzalez had a phenomenal year hitting 57 homers, and they still only had a team 97 wRC+.
That’s what having two of the best pitchers in all of baseball means. Their innings and greatness masks so much. Case-in-point, that team was 52-18 when Schilling and Johnson pitched, and they were 40-52 when they didn’t.
It was a feat replicated in the postseason. The Diamondbacks were 9-2 when they pitched, and they were 2-4 when they didn’t.
Good pitching beats good hitting. Great pitching wins World Series nearly single-handedly. That was the case in 2001, and it may be the case again in 2022.
With all due respect to Schilling and Johnson, if Jacob deGrom is healthy, deGrom and Scherzer are a more formidable duo.
Consider this. Schilling’s best ERA+ was 159, and his best FIP was 2.40. deGrom has bested that ERA+ three times and the FIP twice. Scherzer had a better ERA+ three times.
Johnson was on a different level than Schilling with a career best 197 ERA+ and 2.04 FIP. deGrom bettered than ERA+ and FIP once, and it would’ve been twice if he was healthy in 2021.
In addition to deGrom and Scherzer being the better duo, the 2022 Mets promise to be a better roster. This team is not done with their offseason, and they still have players like Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo.
With deGrom and Scherzer, this Mets team is already a World Series contender. We need look no further than the 2001 Diamondbacks as proof of that. How great they will be will be determined by the rest of this offseason.
Takahashi Kashiwada. Tsuyoshi Shinjo. Satoru Komiyama. Kazuo Matsui. Ryota Igarashi. With all due respect to Masato Yoshii, the New York Mets forays into Japan have typically ended very poorly.
While the process and luck has been bad, it’s meaningless when looking to any players out of Japan. Enter Seiya Suzuki.
The 27 year old Suzuki has been a great hitter in Japan with an OPS over 1.000 in three out of the last four seasons. In terms of age and production, it’s where Hideki Matsui was before coming to the New York Yankees.
Matsui thrived in New York. He was a two Time All-Star and a World Series MVP. Again, this means nothing as compared to Suzuki. All it does is just show a Japanese star in his prime can thrive in New York.
There seems to be a consensus Suzuki will sign for an AAV between $7 – $10 million per year. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Suzuki would sign for five years $55 million.
Some believe he’s a five tool player, and he’s the best player in Japan. Some wonder if he can translate his skills to Major League pitching. No one knows, but at that price, it’s worth the gamble for the Mets.
Remember, they don’t just need one outfielder; they need two. Right now, Brandon Nimmo is their only real Major League everyday outfielder on the roster.
As we see, the Mets options are flawed and limited. They need to re-sign Michael Conforto, and they still need another outfielder. No one on the free agent market has Suzuki’s upside.
When you need two outfielders in a thin free agent class, you need to take some calculated risks. If you’re the Mets, and you’re really going to go for it, $10 million to Suzuki is a worthwhile gamble.
Past history with Japanese players should mean nothing. All that matters is the Mets have a desperate need for an outfielder, they have money, and Suzuki could be great for them.
With the deadline to protect Rule 5 players, you’ll typically see some shocking moves. The New York Yankees designating Clint Frazier ranks as a shocking move.
While shocking, it probably wasn’t all that surprising. It never really worked for him with the Yankees, and there are questions about whether he’s really recovered from his concussions and/or if he had other neurological issues.
id love to have the opportunity to talk about this situation publicly and probably plan to do so soon — my issues have been very personal to me and something i've wanted to handle privately but there's been a lot of inaccurate things reported about my injury that i'll clear up. https://t.co/4Ju9ZGUhcA
— Clint Frazier (@clintfrazier) October 11, 2021
Whatever the case, Frazier’s time with the Yankees appears to be over, and he will be with a new organization in 2022. That organization should be the New York Mets.
As constituted, the Mets only have Brandon Nimmo as an outfielder right now. Perhaps, depending on what they do this offseason, Jeff McNeil can slot back in left field. And no, once and for all Dominic Smith is not a LF.
In the minors, Khalil Lee is all the Mets have has Major League ready outfield depth. While we shouldn’t take away too much from an 11 game stint, he didn’t appear ready.
He looked overmatched for the most part. Certainly, he made improvements and should continue to improve. That said, he can’t be counted on as depth on Opening Day.
That’s what Frazier could be. He could be real depth for the Mets with upside. In some ways, he could provide the Mets with what Billy McKinney (another player designated for assignment) provided the Mets in 2021.
The two biggest positives with Frazier is he still hits the ball extremely hard, and his walk rate continues to improve. There is real offensive promise there, and a mixture of a new team, different analytical approach, and a new hitting coach could get Frazier to reach his potential.
On the latter two, we know the Mets are still addressing these needs. With the right people, the Mets could not only get the most out of Frazier, but really anyone on the team.
With Frazier, the bat isn’t the issue. There is enough to but in on the potential. That same probably can’t be said of the defense.
Aside from 2020, Frazier has put up a negative OAA. Part and parcel with that is Frazier’s decreasing spring speed. Even with improved positioning, it’s difficult to see how his defense would improve suddenly.
Of course, Frazier’s defense can improve, as we saw in 2020, but it’s difficult to see it improve to the point where he doesn’t hurt you everyday. With Frazier, that’s not an issue.
If the Mets got Frazier as a fourth outfielder, they can pick and choose his spots in the outfield. An even bigger benefit is he’s a right-handed bat who can complement what the Mets already have.
For this reason alone, this merits putting in a waiver claim on him. Perhaps, the Mets could swing a minor trade to endure they get him. In either event, there’s still real upside with Frazier, and the Mets could use another outfielder.
In the end, Frazier is very low risk with high reward. He’s well worth the gamble. That goes double for a Mets team which desperately needs outfielders.
When Noah Syndergaard left the New York Mets to sign with the Los Angeles Angels, one of the talking points was the Mets are going to benefit from the draft pick acquired. The way things are going that may need to be their focus.
Syndergaard leaving is another big hit to the Mets already thin pitching depth. That’s problematic given all the question marks that rotation had even when Syndergaard was expected to be a Met in 2022. If this rotation falters, this is a team who is going to be given no choice but to rebuild.
Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are coming off injury plagued years, and they are 33 and 34 respectively. With deGrom having an opt out after the 2022 season, they can both be free agents. Taijuan Walker can also be a free agent after the season. Walker had a great first half in 2021, but he faltered in the second half and would ultimately finish the season with a 90 ERA+.
As stands right now, the last two spots in the rotation would go to David Peterson and Tylor Megill. Peterson followed a poor 2020 from a peripheral stat perspective with poor 2021 stats and a season ending injury. He showed flashes, but ultimately, he looked like he was not ready. Megill burst onto the scene, but he tired quickly and fell apart at the end of the season, which is quite understandable.
Given the dearth of Triple-A pitching depth, the Mets need to sign two starters to allow Peterson and Megill to further develop and try to limit their innings a bit. Given where the prices are now, Marcus Stroman is going to need around a $25 million AAV to re-sign. Realistically speaking, it’s going to cost at least $40 million to fix the starting pitching.
Keep in mind, starting pitching is far from the Mets only problem. With Michael Conforto a free agent, and the Mets never getting a left fielder over the last three years, they need to fill-in two-thirds of their outfield. Left field could potentially be filled by Jeff McNeil, but the team needs to both hope they fill in two infield spots while also hoping McNeil rebounds from a nightmare 2021.
That is also before you consider Brandon Nimmo is going to be after the 2022 season. In reality, the Mets will have to figure out how to fill out an entire outfield over the course of two seasons. While McNeil may be the proverbial cheap choice, he is now an arbitration eligible player and will be more expensive. Thanks to Brodie Van Wagenen, the same goes for Pete Alonso.
While the Mets are figuring out how to pay two more starters, having to pay arbitration salaries to Alonso and McNeil, they will also have Robinson Cano‘s salary on the books. Unless Cano has a Jenrry Mejia situation, he is going to get $24 million in 2022 and 2023 ($3.75 will be paid by the Seattle Mariners).
Maybe Cano can take over second or third. Maybe he is a utility player. If the DH comes to the NL, he could be the DH. It’s also possible he’s just an overpaid pinch hitter or a player who will need to be released. In any event, that’s a lot of dead payroll weight when the team is potentially looking to re-sign Javier Baez to play alongside his friend Francisco Lindor. On Baez, he’s projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive a $20 million AAV.
Before the Mets look to rebuild their bullpen with Jeurys Familia and Aaron Loup being free agents, or build depth with Jonathan Villar being a free agent, they will add at least $84 million to the payroll to add two starters, re-sign Baez, and do whatever they are going to do with Cano. Again, that is before building a bullpen and depth, and it is also before arbitration.
From a competitive balance tax threshold, the Mets payroll is $128.45 million before arbitration. Adding $84 million puts it at $212.45 million. According the MLB Trade Rumors model, the arbitration salaries could increase the payroll by an additional $49.4 million. That puts the Mets payroll at $261.85 million before they fill in their vacancies at second, third, left field, right field, the bench, and the bullpen.
That’s also before they figure out potential extensions for players like Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, and Nimmo. It’s also before they try to figure out a way to get deGrom to decline his opt out. The question is do the Mets really want to have a payroll around $300 million for the 2022 season? Based on what we saw in 2021, the answer is a clear no. However, we heard some rumors as to why the Mets didn’t go past the threshold.
Sure, with some creativity and shrewd moves, the Mets may not need to get to the $300 million threshold to compete in the NL East. Then again, this team is going to hire Billy Eppler as the GM. Taking a look at the complete picture, the Mets realistically have two options: (1) spend like no one has before; or (2) rebuild. Losing Syndergaard tilted it a little more towards rebuild, but it is still early in the offseason.