Billy Wagner
The commentary when the New York Mets signed Francisco Lindor was he was grossly overpaid. That was a narrative screamed all over the airwaves, and it was at its most intense during Lindor’s early season slump.
Of course, the narrative was always false, and as usual, it had a twinge of #lolMets to it. With his near MVP season leading the Mets to the NLCS, Lindor shut that narrative up . . . for now.
Enter Juan Soto.
Soto received a MLB record 15 year $765 million contract. That carries a $51 million AAV. It’s a staggering number, and when he’s paid more than Shohei Ohtani, you’re allowed to question the disparity.
We can point out Soto is four years younger and just now entering his prime years. We can discuss Soto’s durability against Ohtani’s injury history. There’s more to contemplate, but it’s all a pointless exercise.
Determining whether or not Soto is overpaid is directly tied to the value he brings the team.
Each offseason had its own trends, but over the past six seasons, teams have paid roughly $7.6 million per 1 WAR. As a result, for Soto to be worth the deal, he would have to produce a 6.7 WAR per season.
On that note, Soto is coming off a season with a 7.9 WAR. Two of his past four seasons have exceeded 7.0 WAR. If Soto produces at this level during the peak years of his deal, he’s exceeding the AAV paid to him.
Of course, the $7.6 million is an average. We have twice seen the value surpass $9 million. At a $9 million valuation, Soto would only need to average a 5.7 WAR to be worth the deal.
Of course, this presumes WAR/$ doesn’t increase with increased revenues in baseball. As the WAR/$ increases, Soto’s production need not be at the 5-7 WAR value to be worth the deal.
Of course, the Mets signed him to be exactly that. As seen with pure hitters like Yordan Alvarez, Edgar Martinez, and Frank Thomas a hitter of Soto’s caliber can absolute produce that value.
Yes, this presupposes Soto will hit like a Hall of Famer. That’s what he’s done in his career, and there is zero expectation he will suddenly cease being that.
Look, the Mets signed Ted Williams. With apologies to Darryl Strawberry, the Mets finally landed the next Ted Williams.
There’s knowledge that comes with being that level of a hitter. As Soto discussed in his press conference, his discussions with Aaron Judge made both better.
Notably, it was the best years of Soto’s and Judge’s careers. It’s a relationship Soto can now have with Lindor. Moreover, think of the impact Soto can have on Francisco Álvarez and Mark Vientos.
There’s also the message adding a player like Soto sends to the rest of the league. Look at the Mets back at Pedro Martinez in the 2004 offseason. It paved the way for Carlos Beltran and eventually Billy Wagner.
Was Pedro worth his contract? Well, partially thanks to Jeff Wilson, certainly not. However, it was a move which made the Mets relevant, and it led to helping the Mets acquire players which would nearly lead to a pennant.
The Mets arguably already had that with Lindor. However, acquiring Soto pushes things even further. It puts the team on par with the Los Angeles Dodgers and their three MVPs.
The Mets are at a completely different level now. They haven’t been here since the 1980s. The Mets are now set to have a decade plus run as a World Series contender.
Lindor brought relevance. Soto takes the Mets to a new level entirely. Yes, Soto’s production will mostly likely be worth $51 million per year. The extra intangibles he brings means he will assuredly be worth every single last penny of the deal.
According to various reports, the New York Mets are out on Shohei Ohtani. The Mets are not at fault here.
The fact of the matter is Ohtani doesn’t want to come to New York. He doesn’t want the media attention and responsibility that comes along with New York.
Certainly, Ohtani has spent his entire life in the limelight. He gets more attention than just about any baseball player. He understands the responsibilities that comes with being the best player in the game.
And yet, he’s being a bit short-sighted here, and thus, is making a mistake.
Frankly, the Mets history is replete with players who didn’t want to deal with New York. Even worse, it’s full of players who just don’t want the Mets.
However, for the most part, when they come here, they love it here.
The classic example was Keith Hernandez. He was devastated about the trade to the Mets. He was persuaded to stay, and it led to his being a beloved player with his number retired.
Time and again, Darryl Strawberry has said he regrets leaving the Mets. Players like Cliff Floyd and Billy Wagner were at one point skeptical of being a Met only to sign in free agents and cherish being a part of this team.
Mike Piazza was shockingly traded to the Mets. Even more of a shock, he’d get booed by the fans. Despite that, he signed a deal on the eve of free agency, became one of the most beloved players, and dons a Mets cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.
There was Curtis Granderson who came to the Mets in free agency after his New York Yankees tenure. He talked about how he heard Mets fans were real fans and later said Mets fans were louder.
Even a player like Carlos Beltran keeps finding his way back to the Mets. He didn’t initially want to come. The Wilpons made him want to leave, and yet he’s returned twice.
Point is there’s something special about being a Met. Even the most reluctant end up loving the experience and want to forever be a part of the franchise.
Ohtani is passing on that partially because he doesn’t want the New York media scrutiny and attention. Being fair here, that’s about to follow him anywhere he goes.
He’s also missing out on a city that would allow him to live somewhat in obscurity. After all, this is a city where Robert DeNiro and Al Pacino live. Harry Potter lives there. Hell, Spike Lee not only lives there, but he’s at every New York Knicks game.
New York comes with attention, but it also allows for a somewhat normal life. Being fair, Ohtani gets the same with Los Angeles.
With the Mets, Ohtani would get Steve Cohen who is not afraid to spend. He’s also an owner who wants his players to feel welcome and be like family.
There’s an adoring fanbase desperate to embrace him.
That’s not to say the Mets are the best fit for Ohtani. In the end, only Ohtani can figure that out for himself. To some degree, he has and is nearing a decision.
It’s just unfortunate he’s ruling out a team that could change his life for the better. Yes, the Mets need Ohtani, and he doesn’t need the Mets. That still doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a great experience for him.
In the end, Ohtani should’ve given it more of a chance, and that is mostly why he’s making a mistake.
For reasons which still have not been explained, David Ortiz was held to a completely different standard than anyone else who has ever been on a Hall of Fame ballot. You might’ve believed Ortiz being inducted on the first ballot would prove to be a changing of the guard, but in the end, it was more of the same for the 2023 Hall of Fame class.
As previously detailed here, Ortiz had PED allegations. On this ballot, Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Gary Sheffield were not inducted despite each of them being far superior players. We again saw Omar Vizquel lose votes partially due to allegations of domestic violence, but when Ortiz was on the ballot, it was not remotely a factor or ever discussed. We can go on and on with the double standards including how Ortiz threw bats at umpires and constantly tried to police the fun of the game.
When looking at Ortiz, the only conclusion is he was a cheater, and he was an overall bad guy. However, he was great for a quote and mostly good to the media. Combine that with his being a willing caricature on Fox’s pre- and post-games, and you have a Hall of Famer.
That brings us to Carlos Beltrán. As you recall back in 2008, Billy Wagner spoke of a rift in the Mets clubhouse dealing with media accountability, which was an indirect shot at players like Beltràn.
By every measure, Beltràn was a deserving Hall of Famer who should have been inducted on the first ballot. He’s one of the best switch hitters of all-time, and by WAR, he’s the eighth best center fielder of all time ahead of players like Duke Snider and Andre Dawson.
Beltràn won Rookie of the Year. He was a nine time All-Star. He won three Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. He had postseason success and won a World Series in the final year of his career. This is as complete of a Hall of Fame resume as you get, especially when there are zero allegations of PEDs against him.
Of course, this neglects his final year with the Houston Astros. In that year, the Astros had a sign stealing system with Beltràn named as the ring leader. Keep in mind, this needed to be an organizational efforts with the cameras and the like, but in the end, it was Beltràn who received the blame.
As a result, writers lined up to write article after article on how the Mets needed to fire Beltràn as their manager. To that end, Beltràn remains the only player punished for this actions. Apparently, the Wilpons being callow and succumbing to public pressure was insufficient punishment. The writers demanded further punishment with them opting not to vote for Beltràn for the Hall of Fame.
Keep in mind, many of these same writers voted for players like A-Rod. They voted for Ortiz on the first ballot. They did that even though the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox received punishments from Major League Baseball for similar systems. We would see Mookie Betts and Aaron Judge win MVP awards after their teams cheated. Apparently, the sign stealing wasn’t an issue for their careers.
We can go on and on when it comes to sign stealing systems. The reason is for some reason the only time baseball cared was with that Astros team. When it was Bobby Thompson and the New York Giants, it was the “Shot Heard Round the World.”Really, when it came to Beltràn and the Astros, everything has been blown way out of proportion.
Overall, writers just have it out for Beltràn despite his not taking PEDs, committing acts of domestic violence, or throwing bats at umpires. In the end, Beltràn’s biggest crime was not having a much better relationship with the media during this playing days. If he did, the writers would’ve fought for him to keep his managerial job and for his induction into the Hall of Fame. After all, they bent over backwards to overlook all the issues with Ortiz to put him in the Hall.
As a New York Mets fan, you thought it couldn’t get worse than 2007. Seven in 17. Tom Glavine not devastated after allowing seven runs in 0.2 innings.
That was a horror show we all watched unfold, but at least we could see it coming. There were starts in the final week of the season from David Williams and Phillip Humber. Billy Wagner was battling back spasms, and Aaron Heilman was gassed.
There were many issues with that team, and they were not remotely built to win the World Series. That makes that team vastly different than the 2022 Mets, a team which will also live in Mets infamy.
Make no mistake. The 2022 Mets collapse and choke was far worse than the 2007 Mets. The aftermath may only punctuate that.
On June 1, the Mets led the National League East by 10.5 games. This the third largest blown division lead in Major League history. It is the largest blown lead over a full 162 game season since the inception of division play. Notably. it is only the second such collapse since the inception of the Wild Card.
From a Mets perspective, this was made all the worse by their September. Remember, they had the easiest closing schedule in baseball with a three game lead.
The Mets were 2-6 against the Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, and Miami Marlins at home before the Atlanta Braves series. Really, the NL East never should have been at play when the Mets traveled to Atlanta.
Despite the Mets having their rotation aligned, they were swept by the Braves. This wasn’t Williams or Pelfrey faltering. It was Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Chris Bassitt faltering with each pitching worse than the last.
Yes, Starling Marte was injured, and he was a very good player and emotional leader all year. That said, the Mets should not have needed him to beat the worst teams in baseball. Again, this is far more about the Washington Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Miami Marlins stretch than it was about the Braves series, a series that never should have mattered.
The Mets controlled the division and their own destiny. They completely and utterly failed doing it in historic fashion. As a result, they were the Wild Card and not a division winner.
In the Wild Card series, the Mets only showed up for the second game. It’s a harsh but fair criticism. Note, this isn’t saying they didn’t want to win. Of course, they wanted to win. They were desperate to win . It’s odd to say for a 101 win team, but they didn’t have what it took to win.
Like the Braves series, Scherzer and Bassitt were bad. For his part, deGrom was good but human. It is very clear by now Scherzer’s oblique and deGrom’s blister compromised them. Bassitt was just one fumes after pitching a career high in innings. However, it is more than that.
There’s plenty of blame to go around here. That includes Buck Showalter, who made a series of baffling decisions in the Braves series and the postseason. It’s Billy Eppler who failed at the trade deadline and who failed to call up his prospects in Mark Vientos and Francisco Álvarez who were just not given sufficient opportunity to get acclimated to the majors before being thrown into a pennant race.
What remains is the first 100+ win team to make the LDS since the inception of the series. It is the largest blown division lead in a full 162 game season since the inception of division play. It is a team which managed just one hit in an elimination game, the fewest a team has ever had.
The Mets entered the postseason with the best home winning percentage in the postseason. They lost two out of three getting outscored 16-8. They scored a total of one run in their two losses. ONE RUN.
This was a complete collapse from a team we all expected to be a true World Series contender. It failed because it couldn’t beat bad teams. It failed for so many reasons. In the end, this was a historic collapse in its own right, and yes, it was absolutely worse than 2007 because this team should have won the World Series.
There are two players who wear a Mets cap on their Hall of Fame plaque, and there are only two people who have had their numbers retired by the Mets for what they did as players – Tom Seaver and Mike Piazza.
The fact Piazza even became a Met was somewhat of a miracle. It required the Marlins to go into fire sale mode after winning a World Series. It needed the Dodgers to overreact to Piazza not agreeing to a contract extension. It required Todd Hundley to suffer a significant elbow injury. Finally, it required public pressure from the fans and airwaves for the Mets to do the right thing and get a superstar in his prime.
As Piazza would tell it, he went into the shower thinking he would be a Cub, and he came out a Met. There’s probably a euphemism to be made there.
After somewhat of a slugging start, one where he was incredulously booed, he took off, and he had probably the best stretch we have seen from any Mets catcher. To put it in perspective, Piazza had a .876 OPS in June, and his monthly OPS would improve each of the ensuing months to the point where he hit .378/.475/.720 for a Mets team trying to make their first postseason in a decade.
During that stretch, he would have his first memorable home run as a member of the Mets. During that September push for the postseason, he had a dramatic go-ahead three run homer against Billy Wagner with the Mets trailing 2-0 in the top of the ninth.
While that Mets team didn’t get over the hump, the Mets made sure Piazza would be a part of the Mets team who eventually did giving him the biggest contract in baseball. With Piazza with the Mets for a full season, things were different for this franchise. Suddenly, they had a superstar, and they were legitimate World Series contenders.
Piazza immediately made good on his contact with a great 1999 season. In that first full season with the Mets, Piazza hit .303/.361/.575 with 25 doubles, 40 homers, and 124 RBI. It was the second most homers a Mets player would have in a single season, and it would be the first time in Major League history a player had 40 homers without a multi-homer game. He would also set the franchise mark for RBI in a season, a record which still stands to this day.
There were so many big homers during that season. There was the beginning of his blood feud with Roger Clemens, who Piazza absolutely dominated. There was his legendary tape measure shot against Ramiro Mendoza, which helped the Mets take their first ever series in the Subway Series:
That would not be the only big homer Piazza would hit that year. Piazza had struggled in the 1999 postseason due to a thumb injury. That injury had actually kept him out of Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS. He would play through the injury during the NLCS, and then in the seventh inning of Game 6, Piazza would hit a game tying homer off of John Smoltz, who is one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all-time:
Unfortunately for Piazza and the Mets, while they made the comeback, they could not complete it losing that game in heartbreaking fashion. The next year, neither Piazza or the Mets would be denied.
In his Hall of Fame career, Piazza would put together a number of MVP worthy seasons. In 1998 and 1999, he was frankly overlooked, and in 2000, he was probably robbed of the award. In that season, Piazza would hit .324/.398/.614 with 26 doubles, 38 homers, and 113 RBI. Again, with Piazza, it wasn’t just the stats, it was when he did it. Arguably, to that point in his career, he hit the biggest home run he had ever hit when he hit a homer capping off the Mets 10 run inning against the Braves.
The Mets making a comeback like that against the Braves was indication the 2000 season was going to be different, and it was. This time, the Mets were not going to be denied the pennant. One of the reasons why was this time Piazza was healthy, and he would have a great postseason.
In the NLCS, he would lead all players in OPS. To a certain extent, you could argue he was once again robbed of an MVP. He would lead the Mets to their first World Series. That’s when Piazza would be treated unfairly.
It was not Piazza’s fault he was attacked by Clemens, and he did the smart thing staying in that game. It also gets overlooked far too often Piazza would homer later in that game to give the Mets a chance to win. He would also homer in Game 4 of the World Series to give the Mets a chance to win that game and get back into the series. Overall, Piazza would leave that postseason as the Mets all-time leader in postseason homers (since passed by Daniel Murphy).
The shame for Piazza is he would continue playing at a high level while his teammates had a noticeable drop-off in production in 2001. He was almost single-handedly tring to keep that team afloat, and to a certain extent he did as the Mets did have at least an outside chance of making the postseason when September came.
Of course, in the grand scheme of things, none of that matters. On September 11, 2001, the Twin Towers fell in a terrorist attack devastating the city and the country. Baseball would be shut down for a while, and there was not only trepidation over when it would be safe to play sports again, but also when it would be safe to return to New York. When baseball did resume, it was the Mets who were the first New York sports team to play in the city. In the bottom of the eighth, Piazza hit not only the most important homer in his career, but arguably in the history of the City of New York (and baseball):
Piazza’s Mets career would take some strange twists and turns from there. There was the botched first base experiment with Art Howe, and there was the issue whether or not he ever demanded a trade. There were the rumors about his sexual orientation and the awkward press conference which ensued. He would also battle some injuries.
Through all of that Piazza remained a very good to great player. He would first hit his 300th homer, and later on in his career, he would break Carlton Fisk‘s record for home runs by a catcher. The 2005 season would be his last one with the Mets, and he would get a chance to say good-bye to the Mets fans who adored him. Mets fans adored him even to the point where he would received a curtain call when he returned to Shea Stadium as a member of the Padres and homered off of Pedro Martinez.
When Piazza left the Mets, he left as the team’s all-time leader in slugging, and he is second in OPS. He is also in the top 10 in several offensive categories. That includes his being third all-time in homers, RBI, and OPS+. That is in addition to all the Major League records he has as a catcher.
In sum, Piazza was the greatest hitting catcher of all-time, and he was the best catcher in Mets history. As a Met, he was a seven time All-Star winning five Silver Sluggers and finishing in the top 15 of MVP voting four times.
An argument can be made he was the most important position player to ever don the Mets uniform. He caught the final pitch at Shea and the first one at Citi He is a Hall of Famer, and he is now the former player who throws out the first pitch for important moments in franchise history. To put it succinctly here, he is the best Mets player to ever wear the number 31.
Previous
1.Mookie Wilson
2.Mackey Sasser
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Lenny Dykstra
5. David Wright
6. Wally Backman
7. Jose Reyes
8. Gary Carter
9. Todd Hundley
10. Rey Ordonez
11. Wayne Garrett
12. John Stearns
13. Edgardo Alfonzo
14. Gil Hodges
15. Carlos Beltran
16. Dwight Gooden
17. Keith Hernandez
18. Darryl Strawberry
19. Bob Ojeda
20. Howard Johnson
21. Cleon Jones
22. Al Leiter
23. Bernard Gilkey
24. Art Shamsky
25. Pedro Feliciano
26. Terry Leach
27. Jeurys Familia
28. Daniel Murphy
29. Frank Viola
30. Michael Conforto
There is a real case to be made here for Bobby Bonilla as the best Mets player to wear the number 25. Through all of the negatives associated with him and his career, by wRC+, he is the Mets 10th best hitter. He was a two time All-Star in his first four year stint with the Mets. He did what the team needed him to do whether that was playing right field or third base.
No, Bonilla was never popular, and things go continually worse. There is far too much negative associated with him now whether it was him playing cards with Rickey Henderson during Game 6 of the 1999 NLCS or his deferred payments which are made to be an annual fiasco.
However, none of those reasons are why he wasn’t selected as the best Mets player to wear the number 25. No, the reason why he wasn’t selected was because Pedro Feliciano is the greatest LOOGY in Mets history.
Feliciano first came to the Mets in 2002 when they were looking for a taker for Shawn Estes. When Estes didn’t hit Roger Clemens and with the Mets having a terrible year, it was time to move on from him. Not quite knowing what they had in him, the Mets first waived Feliciano to make room on the 40 man roster only to sign him as a free agent after the Tigers first claimed then released him.
That began what was a very interesting subplot to Feliciano’s career. This was the first time in his career Feliciano left the Mets organization. He would do it again in 2005, 2011, and 2014. Despite that, in Feliciano’s nine year Major League career, he would only wear a Mets uniform.
In his first stint, he was a middling reliever who had to go to Japan to hone his craft. As noted by Michael Mayer of MMO, Feliciano altered his throwing program, and the smaller strike zone helping him hone is command. This improvement helped him secure a minor league deal to help him return to the Mets. Back with the Mets, he worked with Rick Peterson to drop his arm angle. From that point forward, he became a great LOOGY.
Arguably, that 2006 Mets bullpen was the best bullpen in team history. Notably, in a bullpen with Billy Wagner, Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman, Chad Bradford, and Darren Oliver, it was Feliciano who led that bullpen in ERA+. He’d accomplish that feat with the Mets again in 2009.
In that 2006 season, left-handed batters would only hit .231/.272/.316 off of him. He’d strike out 44 left-handed batters while only walking five. That equates to him striking out a whopping 34.6% of left-handed batters that season. He would then get some big outs that postseason.
In Game 1 of the NLDS, he relieved John Maine in the fifth, and he struck out Kenny Lofton with runners on first and second with no outs. In Game 3, he retired Nomar Garciaparra with the bases loaded, and when the Mets took the lead in the top of the sixth, he would be the winner of the game clinching victory.
Overall, that postseason, Feliciano made six appearances, and he pitched to a 1.93 ERA. Ultimately, in that disappointing postseason which fell just one hit short of the World Series, Feliciano did his job. That was a theme for Feliciano, he came in and did his job.
Beginning in 2008, Feliciano would lead the league in appearances. He would lead the league in appearances in each of the ensuing two seasons. His constantly appearing in games led Gary Cohen to dub him Perpetual Pedro. He would be used so frequently, Feliciano would achieve the very rare feat of appearing in over 90 games in the 2010 season.
When making that 90th appearance, Feliciano became the first left-handed reliever in Major League history to appear in 90 games. When he broke the single-season mark for a left-handed reliever held by Steve Kline and Paul Quantrill.
In appearing in 92 games in 2010, he made more appearances over a two year span than any left-handed reliever in history. In fact, in Major League history, only Mike Marshall and Kent Tekulve have made more appearances in back-to-back seasons, and they did that in the 1970s.
Since the turn of the century, Feliciano is the only reliever to appear in 85+ games not only in two seasons in a row but three season in a row. In fact, from 2006 – 2010, Feliciano would appear in 19 more games than any other reliever, and he would appear in 50 more games than any other left-handed reliever.
Through it all, Feliciano would appear in 484 games as a member of the Mets. Only John Franco would appear in more games as a Mets reliever. Among Mets relievers, his .212 batting average against and .263 wOBA against left-handed batters is the best, and both are by significant margins.
Taking everything into account, Feliciano is the best LOOGY in Mets history, and it is by a very wide margin. When you are ultimately the best at what you do than anyone else in the 58 year history of your franchise, you should be considered the best to ever wear your number.
Previous
1.Mookie Wilson
2.Mackey Sasser
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Lenny Dykstra
5. David Wright
6. Wally Backman
7. Jose Reyes
8. Gary Carter
9. Todd Hundley
10. Rey Ordonez
11. Wayne Garrett
12. John Stearns
13. Edgardo Alfonzo
14. Gil Hodges
15. Carlos Beltran
16. Dwight Gooden
17. Keith Hernandez
18. Darryl Strawberry
19. Bob Ojeda
20. Howard Johnson
21. Cleon Jones
22. Al Leiter
23. Bernard Gilkey
24. Art Shamsky
In 2011, John Franco had his first and only year on the Hall of Fame ballot. After garnering just 4.6% of the vote, he was five percented off of the Hall of Fame ballot. Had he received just three more votes, he could have stayed on the ballot one more year, and we could have seen what, if any, momentum could have been made towards getting him inducted into the Hall of Fame.
At the time, you could understand why Franco did not last long on the ballot. After all, Lee Smith, who retired as the all-time saves leader, had only received 45.3% of the vote in his ninth year on the ballot. At the same time, any and all things relievers had done over the 70s, 80s, and 90s were being completely dwarfed by Mariano Rivera. For an electorate still widely holding onto a feel approach, you could see why Franco didn’t feel like a Hall of Famer.
However, times change. Since Franco fell off of the ballot, we have begun to see a standard emerge for the induction of relievers into the Hall of Fame. When you start to break some of them down, you see Franco belongs in the Hall of Fame.
To start, we should denote the relievers who have been inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame are Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, and Mariano Rivera. Looking at the group, Eckersley was the first pure one inning closer inducted, and we have to move forward to Hoffman’s induction for the one inning closer who did not have a stint as a starting pitcher.
To determine how Franco matches up with these relievers, we should first look to Franco’s career stats. In parenthesis is where Franco stacks up against the eight relievers already inducted into the Hall of Fame:
- Saves 424 (4)
- Games Finished (4)
- ERA 2.89 (6)
- ERA+ 138 (4)
- WAR 23.4 (9)
- WAR7 15.3 (9)
- JAWS 19.4 (9)
Starting with the clear negative, Franco does not have the advanced WAR stats to make a clear and distinct case why he should belong with the eight members already inducted. On that note, relievers as a group fall well short of the already established Hall of Fame WAR standards.
Looking at position players and starting pitchers, catchers have the lowest average WAR among Hall of Famers. That WAR is 53.6 which is significantly higher than the 39.1 WAR for the average Hall of Fame closer. If we were to hold tight and fast with the WAR standard, with the exception of Eckersley and Rivera, all closers would fall short. To a certain extent that makes a WAR predicated arguments on closers somewhat flawed.
Really, when you break it down, closers appear to be the ultimate in compilers getting inducted into the Hall of Fame. Hoffman was the classic example of that. Despite his not being as good as a closer as Smith in terms of ERA+, Hoffman was inducted by the writers, and Smith had to wait for the Veteran’s Committee.
One interesting thing about Hoffman was he only led the league in saves twice, and he never led the league in games finished. Notably, Franco led the league in saves three times, and he led the league in games finished twice. Like Smith, Franco falls short of Hoffman’s save totals. However, no left-handed reliever has accumulated more saves than Franco.
Since 1994, Franco has led all left-handed pitchers in saves. That’s two more saves than Billy Wagner, who is getting increasing support for the Hall of Fame. It is also 66 saves more than Randy Myers who has the third most saves among left-handed relievers.
Looking at the overall saves picture, Franco is fifth all-time in saves. Looking at the active closers, the soon to be 32 year old Craig Kimbrel has 346 saves putting him 78 saves behind Franco. At a minimum, that means Franco will remain in the top five for at least a few more years. If Kimbrel’s knee and elbow problems from the 2019 persist, he may never get there.
When we look across the history of baseball, putting aside the steroids caveat which impacts players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, any player in the top five in a major statistical category is in the Hall of Fame. In fact, it goes much deeper than that. Taking out the steroid players and the ineligible ones like Pete Rose, it is really players in the top 10 to 20 in significant statistical categories are in the Hall of Fame.
Then, there is Franco. He has been in the top five all-time in saves for well over 30 years now. It appears he will remain there for another 10 years. He will likely remain there much longer than that, and he will likely be atop the left-handed reliever all-time saves list for nearly a century.
Like Harold Baines, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame by the Veteran’s Committee, Franco did not seem like a Hall of Famer in 2011. Nearly a decade later, he still may not feel like a Hall of Famer. However, with each passing year his left-handed saves record stands and each year he remains in the top five all-time in saves, we may soon feel like someone who has more saves than literally tens of thousands of relievers belongs in the Hall of Fame.
If you look at the Mets bullpen, the theme appears to be “If.” If this bullpen is healthy, and if this bullpen performs to its full potential, it is going to be one of the best in the game.
The flip side of that is if it isn’t, we’re going to see more of the same.
Still, you can absolutely go to war with a bullpen of Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson, Michael Wacha, and Robert Gsellman.
In some ways, this is reminiscent of the great 2006 bullpen which added Billy Wagner, Pedro Feliciano, Duaner Sanchez, Chad Bradford, and Darren Oliver.
Then again, it could be the disaster that was the 2007 bullpen which had added Scott Schoenweis, Ambiorix Burgos, and Aaron Sele.
That’s the way it is with bullpens. You just try to acquire as many quality guys as you can, and you hope it works. Perhaps with Jeremy Hefner, this is more primed to work.
One thing we do know is starting pitching can help a bullpen. The deeper starters can go, the less you need to go to the well. This keeps your relievers healthier and fresher which hopefully leads to better productivity.
That brings us back to what the Mets have opted to do with their pitching this offseason.
In signing Betances, Wacha, and Rick Porcello, the Mets have spent $23.5 million guaranteed. That number rises to $30.5 million if Wacha hits all of his incentives.
That $23.5 million figure is important because that’s just a hair off of what the Phillies are paying Zack Wheeler per year.
Essentially, the Mets believed Porcello plus a reclamation project in Wacha and Betances. With Betances, remember prior to the Achillies, he had dealt with a shoulder impingement and lat issue all through the 2019 season.
Even when Betances did return, he admitted to his stuff and velocity not being there. That was before he partially tore his Achilles.
Yes, Betances is an arm well worth the gamble. Not only has he shown the ability to flat out dominate, but he’s also shown the ability to do it in New York. That’s important.
Still, you really have to wonder about the wisdom of rolling the dice on three relievers when you’re already rolling the dice on two relievers who were supposed to be your top two relievers. Add to that the significant downgrade from Porcello, who you’re also rolling the dice on, from Wheeler, and you’re left wondering if this was the best allocation of resources.
That does double when you consider Wheeler stays in the division making the Phillies significantly better.
Ultimately, the 2020 bullpen and pitching staff as a whole may be better. Then again, the bullpen could be more of the same with the pitching staff as a whole far worse.
Of course, the Mets bullpen could’ve remained the same and been far better as a result of Diaz adapting better to New York, and the elimination of the super ball helping him, Familia, and the rest of the bullpen.
That’s the gamble the Mets took. They decided on adding a group of lesser pitchers being better than the known quantity in Wheeler.
It’s not a smart bet, but it’s still possible the Mets bet pays off. No matter what, the Mets better be right here.