Addison Reed

Who Could Replace a Suspended Jeurys Familia?

With Jeurys Familia having been arrested under suspicion of domestic violence, there are a number of questions that need to be asked and answered.  While it may seem tactless, at some point, we need to ask the question of how does this arrest impact the Mets organization.

Over the past two seasons, Familia has been leaned on heavily by Terry Collins, and Familia has responded.  In his two years as the Mets closer, Familia has made more appearances, converted more saves, pitched more innings, and finished more games than any other closer in Major League Baseball.  He has at least appeared to be the rare durable closer that can be relied upon year in and year out.

Many times Familia has not been given much of a margin of error.  For far too many stretches in 2015 and 2016, the Mets have found themselves desperate for offense putting a ton of pressure on their starters and their best relievers.  This past season Familia and Addison Reed combined to be the best 8-9 combination in all of baseball.  With the possibility of Yoenis Cespedes leaving in free agency, the uncertainty of the health of Neil Walker and whether he can return next season, and the myriad of other offensive question marks, the bullpen is once again going to be of great importance in 2017.

That’s where things get tricky with Familia.  While he has stated he is not guilty of the crimes, we have seen Major League Baseball levy suspensions for players regardless of criminal charges being filed or in the absence of a conviction.  The police never filed charges against Aroldis Chapman, and still he was suspended 30 games.  The charges against Jose Reyes were dropped, and he was suspended for 51 games.  If a Major League Baseball investigation finds Familia committed an act of domestic violence, it is possible he could miss 30 or more games to start the season.

With Reed, the Mets do have an internal option to close.  From 2012 – 2014, Reed served as a closer for the White Sox and the Diamondbacks.  In that time, he averaged 34 saves per season.  While his 4.22 ERA and 1.217 WHIP left a lot to be desired, it is important to note Reed has been a different pitcher since coming to the Mets.  As a Met, he has a 1.84 ERA and a 0.957 WHIP.  Certainly, Reed has shown the ability in the past to be a closer, and with the Mets Reed has shown the ability to be a dominant reliever.  Therefore, from a closing standpoint, the Mets have an internal option.

The real issue becomes who takes Reed’s spot in the bullpen.

Hansel Robles has shown a lot of promise.  He has struck out 10.0 batters per nine in his career, and he is effective getting left-handed batters out.  However, he is also mercurial in his performance, and slotting him into the eighth inning takes away one of his key attributes which is he is a guy that you can use for multiple innings or to get a big out.

Josh Smoker had great strikeout numbers in both the minors and in the majors this season.  In fact, he struck out 14.7 batters per nine.  However, he has severe reverse splits, and each time Collins asked him to pitch more than one inning this year, he allowed a home run in his second inning of work.

Seth Lugo could be an inspired choice to take over the eighth inning.  As we saw this season, the Mets envisioned his future role with the team coming out of the bullpen, and Lugo was effective in his limited time out of the pen for the Mets.  However, we also saw he was an effective starter, and with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz coming off season ending surgeries, we were reminded you cannot have enough starting pitching depth.

There are minor league pitchers such as Paul Sewald who could be effective.  However, with the Mets not turning to them in September, it is highly unlikely they will rely on them to be the seventh or eighth inning reliever to start the season.  It is further unlikely with him being subjected to the Rule 5 Draft.  It is very likely someone will pick him up in the draft.

From there, the Mets do not have many internal options.  In reality, this means with Familia potentially missing a significant portion of the season, the Mets will likely have to look on the free agent market to fill in the gap.

The first name that comes to mind is Fernando Salas.  In his limited time with the Mets, he was very effective.  In fact, he had the same reversal of fortune that Reed did in 2015.  Still, there is caution in over relying on a pitcher with a career 3.64 ERA to replace one of your two best bullpen arms.

There are a number of intriguing set-up men on the free agent market.  There is Joe Blanton who had a 2.48 ERA in 75 appearances for the Dodgers.  Former Met Joe Smith has been a good reliever for 10 years, and during the stretch drive with the Cubs this year, he had a a 2.51 ERA in 16 appearances.  Brad Ziegler is coming off a terrific year as a closer for the Diamondbacks and the Red Sox.  There are a bunch of other names as well.  However, as we have seen as recently as last year with Antonio Bastardo, many middle reliever performances tend to fluctuate year to year.  This leaves you wondering not only how to replace that player’s role in the bullpen, but also how to get out from under the contract.

Therefore, if you are going to add a reliever you should go after the dominant closer in free agency.  While there is debate over whether or not they are more of a sure thing, we do know there are three great closers available this offseason.

We can pick nits over who is better among the trio of Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon.  However, the one underlying truth with any of those three is if you have one of them, you have a dominant closer in your bullpen.  As we have seen with Familia over the past two seasons, you are lucky to have any of these dominant closers.  With one of those three joining Reed, and eventually Familia, the Mets would have a bullpen similar to the one the Indians have rode all the way to the World Series.

The Mets will also have a lot of money invested in their bullpen.  According to the Los Angeles Times, it is believed that Jansen will not only receive and reject the $17.2 million qualifying offer, but also he will eventually sign a contract surpassing Jonathan Papelbon‘s then record setting five year $50 million contract.  With Jansen on the free agent market, and big budget teams like the Dodgers chasing after him, there is no telling how high the bidding will go for him.

For their part, Chapman and Melancon cannot receive qualifying offers as a result of them being traded in-season.  At least conceptually, that could drive up their prices as well because more teams may be interested in them because they will not have to forfeit a draft pick to obtain them.  Teams like the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, and who knows who else could be interested leading to each of them getting a huge contract.

This begs the question whether the Mets can even afford to pursue a big time closer.  Likely, they cannot.

According to Mets Merized Online, the Mets will have approximately $108 million wrapped up in 18 players who should make the Opening Day roster.  That number does not include money to re-sign Cespedes, Walker, Jerry Blevins, Bartolo Colon, or the aforementioned Salas.  If the Mets were to re-sign these players, or players of similar value to replace them, the Mets payroll is going to go well over $160 million.  Accoring to Spotrac, the Mets finished the 2016 season with a $156 million payroll.  It should be noted this amount does not include any insurance reimbursements related to David Wright‘s season ending neck surgery.

With that in mind, the Mets likely do not have the budget necessary to add a Chapman, Jansen, or Melancon.  If the Mets were to add one of them, it is likely to come at the expense of Cespedes or Walker.  While having a dominant trio to close out ballgames in enticing, the Mets would first need offense to get enough runs to give that bullpen a lead.  This puts a greater priority on Cespedes and Walker.

In the long run, the Mets best bet is to play out the entire process with Familia.  If there is a suspension, Reed can be an effective closer.  Re-signing Salas and/or bringing in a Ziegler would help as well.  It would behoove the Mets to roll the dice on a reclamation project like a Greg Holland or a Drew Storen because in reality that is the position the Mets are in budget-wise.

Mets Final Season Grades – Late Inning Relievers

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the seventh set of grades, here are the Mets spot starters:

Jeurys Familia B-

Familia would not repeat the dominance of his 2015 campaign, but still he would be among the best relievers in the game.  He would set a new Mets record for most saves in a season, beating the record he shared with Armando BenitezIn fact, he led the majors in saves and games finished.  He pitched more innings and made more appearances than any other closer.  Overall, he was 3-4 with 51 saves, a 2.55 ERA, and a 1.210 WHIP.  He was a deserving All-Star, and he cemented his place among the best closers in baseball.  Time and again, he answered the call . . . until he didn’t.

In the Wild Card Game, admittedly a game the Mets do not reach without him, Familia was not up to the task.  We can over-emphasize the three run homer hit by Conor Gillaspie, but that was just a part of an inning where Familia didn’t have his command, and he wasn’t fooling the Giants hitters.  It was a tragic end to what was a good season for Familia.

Addison Reed A+

One thing that was lost during the 2016 season was the eighth inning was supposed to be a question mark with Tyler Clippard departing in free agency.  We forget about this because Reed was just that great this season.  In 80 appearances, he was 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA and a 0.940 WHIP.  Overall, he probably was the best relief pitcher in the National League.  He combined with Familia to create the best 8-9 combination in the major leagues, and together, they walked a tight rope night-in and night-out.  With no margin for error, they made each game a seven inning game, and they were among the biggest reasons the Mets made the postseason.

Jim Henderson C

Henderson’s 2016 season is an example of why baseball is cruel.  After losing almost two full years due to shoulder injuries, he not only made the Mets out of Spring Training, but he was also handed the seventh inning job.  In April, Henderson excelled with his 95+ MPH fastball.  He was helping turn it into a six inning game with Reed and Familia behind him.  Then disaster struck.

After throwing a career high 34 pitches, Terry Collins would put him back in there a day game after a night game.  Collins’ excuse was it was a must-win game.  It was April 13th.  Henderson had nothing that day, and he would get lifted after loading the bases (Hansel Robles got out of the jam).  After that game, Henderson lost a bit off his fastball, and he would eventually need a long stay on the disabled list with a shoulder issue.  Even with the stay on the disabled list, he was never the same.  A promising year ended with him going 2-2 with a 4.11 ERA and a 1.371 WHIP.

Fernando Salas A

Salas came to the Mets at the waiver trade deadline, and he had a similar effect that Reed did for the 2015 Mets.  Essentially, Salas locked down the seventh inning, and he allowed the Mets to pull back a bit on the usage of Reed and Familia.  He responded well to the workload and the Mets pitch framing.  Overall, he would make 17 appearances going 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA and a 0.635 WHIP.  The Mets and Salas should be interested in a reunion this offseason.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

Travis d’Arnaud Should Be the Mets Catcher in 2017

This offseason, the Mets have a number of important decisions to make.  How far should they go to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes?  Should they re-sign Neil Walker to play second base, or do you stick with what you have in Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Gavin Cecchini, and/or Jose Reyes?  How do you properly prepare for how to deal with the David Wright situation?  Once you pick up Jay Bruce‘s option, what do you do with him?  Do you move Bruce or Michael Conforto to first base, or do you stick with Lucas Duda, who has now had lower back injuries in consecutive seasons?  Do you bring back Bartolo Colon to be the fifth starter again, or do you fully trust one of Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo to take over that role?  Overall, there are many questions on how the Mets should build the 2017 roster.

However, one avenue they don’t have to address is the catcher position.

Let’s start with the one player people will have near unanimous agreement.  Rene Rivera should return as the Mets backup catcher.  Rivera certainly earned his reputation as not only a good defensive catcher, but also one that serves as a mentor for young starting pitching.  Much of the unexpected success both Gsellman and Lugo had were partially the result of them working with Rivera.  More importantly, Rivera developed a rapport with Noah Syndergaard.  He became the ace’s personal catcher, and we saw Rivera catch seven brilliant innings from Syndergaard in the Wild Card Game.  With Rivera being arbitration eligible, he should be a lock to return in his role.

By the way, that role was the backup catcher to Travis d’Arnaud.

There is no sugar-coating it.  The 2016 season was a disaster for d’Arnaud at the plate.  In 75 games, d’Arnaud hit .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI.  He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season.  It was as bad as you can possibly imagine.  In fact, his numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season.  That year, the Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate.  The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.

Making everything all the more frustrating was d’Arnaud regressed in his ability to throw out base runners.  In 2015, he was actually league average in that department.  That is all the more impressive when you consider how the Mets starting pitchers generally do not hold on runners well.  This season d’Arnaud went back to only throwing out 22% of base runners.

Part of his offensive and throwing issues are related to mechanics.  Part of them may be related to the rotator cuff strain he had in his  throwing shoulder.  Another factor was with d’Arnaud struggling, he began to receive irregular playing time.  It could be any combination of the three.  In any event, d’Arnaud had a poor year offensively and a poor year throwing.

However, d’Arnaud was still good behind the plate.  He’s always been good at fielding a throw and getting the tag down without violating baseball’s blocking the plate rules.  He still calls a good game.  He was yet again one of the best pitch framers in baseball.  In fact, his teammate. Addison Reed, said, “There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look.  He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.”  (ESPN.com).  Judging from Reed’s words, you can tell he also has the confidence of his pitching staff.

With d’Arnaud still excelling behind the plate, and there being valid reasons for his poor performance, it might just be in the Mets best interests to bet on d’Arnaud rebounding in 2017.  Remember, d’Arnaud was the same player who hit .268/.340/.485 with 12 homers and 41 RBI in 67 games.  Arguably, d’Arnaud was one of the top offensive catchers in the game.  With his skills behind the plate, he has the rare ability to be able to hit and catch well.  With him turning 28 years old and still being a player with multiple years of control, the Mets would be best suited to count on him getting healthy in the offseason (not always a given with d’Arnaud) and letting him reclaim his 2015 form.

Another reason to bet on d’Arnaud is the weak free agent class.  Looking at the list of possible free agents, there does not exist one catcher who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.

The first catcher most people will point to is Wilson Ramos.  Even if you buy into his career year being a new norm for him, Ramos isn’t even sure he will be able to play next season after tearing his ACL.  As Ramos said himself, “Unfortunately this injury… may affect whether I am able to stay with a NL team.”  (cbssports.com).  That rules out Ramos entirely.

The next catcher that is consistently mentioned is Matt Wieters.  In 2016, despite hitting in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, Wieters hit .243/.302/.409 with 17 homers and 66 RBI.  These numbers are partially why he had an 87 OPS+ meaning he was a subpar offensive player.  Even if you are willing to overlook some of these stats because he is a switch hitter, he hit .231/.304/.346 with three homers and 15 RBI off lefties this year.

Moreoever, Wieters is nowhere near the pitch framer d’Arnaud is.  Wieters is not only unable to steal his staff a strike here or there, he is also unable to ensure that strikes thrown will be called strikes.  Another consideration is Wieters is a fairly injury prone player.  While he was healthy in 2016, he was not for the previous couple of years.  If one of the reasons you are looking to move on from d’Arnaud is health, Wieters is not your guy.

Another factor the Mets should not pursue Wieters, or whoever else you believe should be a target, is money.  Ultimately, players like Wieters are going to cost more than d’Arnaud.  That’s important when you consider Jacob deGrom is heading to his first arbitration year, and the Mets still have to find the money to re-sign Cespedes.  Any money spent this offseason is presumably less money available for the Mets to give Cespedes.  Therefore, if you sign a player, you better make sure that both is both a player of need and/or a definite upgrade over what the Mets already have.

There is no one out there who is definitively better than d’Arnaud.  In fact, they are probably not as good as him.  Worse yet, they are going to be more expensive.  With that in mind, the Mets best move would be to let d’Arnaud get healthy so he can contribute to the Mets like he did in 2015.

If he doesn’t, the Mets still have Kevin Plawecki . . . .

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

Mets Final Grades – Catchers

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the first set of grades, I will start with the catching position:

Travis d’Arnaud C-

After a breakout 2015 season, this was supposed to be the year that d’Arnaud broke out and became an All Star caliber catcher.  Instead, we were faced with another injury plagued year, discussion of moving on from him and acquiring Jonathan Lucroy, and finally him effectively losing the starting job to Rivera.

Let’s start with the good.  Believe it or not, and many Mets fans don’t believe it, d’Arnaud had another great year behind the plate.  He was once again one of the best pitch framers in all of baseball, he called a good game, was the Mets best catcher in terms of limiting wild pitches and passed balls, did another phenomenal job of navigating baseballs plate blocking rules, and had the full confidence of his pitching staff.  And yes, while his throwing took a major step back this year due to a combination of poor mechanics and a shoulder injury, he was better than advertised trying to throw out base runners.  With that said, despite many of the stolen bases having come off the pitching staff this year, yes, d’Arnaud did regress, but it was not to the point where he became a major liability.

Now the bad.  There is no way to put it nicely.  d’Arnaud was simply terrible at the plate this year.  In 75 games, he hit just .247/.307/.323 with only four homers and 15 RBI. He didn’t have one extra base hit or an RBI off of a left-handed pitcher the entire season. His numbers were almost as bad as they were in his 2014 rookie season when Mets had to send him down to the minors to let him fix his issues at the plate. The Mets couldn’t afford to do that this season.

In some ways, d’Arnaud is unique across the game of baseball.  He is the rare catcher that is expected to be a significant offensive contributor for his team.  He didn’t just fail in that regard; he was actually a liability at the plate. This was the main reason d’Arnaud eventually lost his starting job.  If he hit, he would’ve played more, but he didn’t.  In the end, it was a disappointing and yet another injury plagued season for him.  However, his 2015 season gives us hope, and that is why we can expect him to rebound and be a significant contributor next year.

Kevin Plawecki F

If you want to be fair to Plawecki, you would say he should never have started the season as the Mets backup catcher.  The former first round pick had the potential to be more than just a backup, and with that he should have been in AAA honing his craft instead of waiting idly by until d’Arnaud got injured again.

Still, that is not an excuse for Plawecki to once again squander the opportunity given to him.  Y0u think d’Arnaud’s offensive stats were bad?  Plawecki’s were worse.  In the time he was the backup and took over for d’Arnaud, Plawecki hit .194/.301/.258 with five doubles, one home run, and 10 RBI in 41 games.  He wasn’t much better in his September call-up.  For the season Plawecki hit .197/.298/.265 with six doubles, one homer, and 11 RBI.

Sure, Plawecki did hit well in AAA like everyone seems to do.  In 55 games with Las Vegas, he hit .300/.348/.484 with 11 doubles, eight homers, and 40 RBI.  While not outstanding for the Pacific Coast League, it did show a marked improvement over what he has been in the majors.  However, they were still empty numbers.  As we saw in Plawecki’s limited time in September, he had made no adjustments while in AAA.  He was still a pull happy ground ball hitter who does not make a lot of hard contact.  With the Mets likely returning d’Arnaud and Rivera next year, he is likely going to get one last shot to improve and make himself a major league hitter.

With all that said, it should be pointed out that Plawecki has established he can be an effective backup catcher at the major league level.  While he was touted for his offensive skills, Plawecki was really established himself as a good defensive catcher with excellent pitch framing skills.  Given the fact that catchers tend to develop later than other players, it would be unwise to cut bait with him even with the rise of Tomas Nido.

Rene Rivera C+

This season the Mets got the best out of what Rivera could offer.  He was a good defensive catcher, he helped Noah Syndergaard through his issues holding on base runners, he mentored Robert Gsellman and  Seth Lugo, and we discovered he could actually hit left-handed pitching pretty well.  With his work with young pitching, and with d’Arnaud’s struggles, Rivera effectively took over the starting job late in the season.

Overall, this was the second best season of Rivera’s career.  Still, he was not very good.  He only accumulated a 0.4 WAR and a 69 OPS+.  Most of his offensive stats were from a nine game July hot streak that saw him hit .323/.400/.581 with two doubles, two homers, and seven RBI.  Other than that nine game stretch, Rivera hit .201/.256/.292 with two doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI in 56 games.  Those are Plawecki type numbers the Mets wanted to move away from when they made the switch from Plawecki to Rivera as the backup catcher.

Another note, Rivera was awful behind the plate in the Wild Card Game.  Yes, he did go 1-3 off Madison BumgarnerHowever, it was his work behind the plate that was troubling.  Many criticized the work of home plate umpire Mike Winters for missing a number of close pitches made by Mets pitchers.  However, it should be noted that Buster Posey, a superior pitch framer to everyone, was getting those calls for Bumgarner.  While he is usually a good pitch framer, Rivera was terrible at it during the Wild Card Game stabbing at many pitches.  With that he extended some at-bats making Syndergaard go deeper into counts and not allowing him to pitch into the eighth.  Also, his passed ball and poor pitch framing cost Addison Reed some pitches and quite possibly gave the Giants some confidence heading into the ninth against Jeurys Familia (note: Rivera had nothing to do with Familia making a bad pitch to Conor Gillaspie).

That game marred what was a pretty good year for Rivera.  Given his rapport with Syndergaard, he should start the year as his personal catcher.  It will also be nice to have him around should Gsellman or Lugo need to make some spot starts next season.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links. 

The Cubs World Series Win Was Painful to Watch

If you are a diehard Mets fan, or if you are a Mets fan well versed in the history of the team, you know how the Cubs were the Mets first real rival.  You know the stories about how Ron Santo clicked his heels taunting the Mets, and you warmly remember the black cat crossing Santo’s path.  From there, the Mets overtook the Cubs to win the National League East en route to winning the 1969 World Series.

In 1984, the Cubs obtained Rick Sutcliffe, and the team went on an incredible run to win the National League East over the upstart New York Mets who went from 68 to 90 wins with their first full season with Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry.  By the way, it was also the rookie year for phenom Dwight Gooden.

Then there was the NLCS last year that saw Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, and Jacob deGrom dominate a terrific Cubs lineup.  We all knew the Cubs were a great team, but the Mets were their kryptonite.  As a Mets fan, a large part of you had to wonder if the Cubs even make the World Series if the Mets pitching was healthy.

But the angst goes well beyond that.  There was Ben Zobrist as the World Series MVP.  Mets fans watched him be a major contributor to a Kansas City Royals team who beat the Mets in the World Series last year.  In the offseason, he was seemingly all but assured to join the Mets to replace Daniel Murphy.  Instead, literally at the 11th hour, he spurned the Mets, and he signed with the Cubs.  Part of you had to wonder how different the 2016 season would have been had Zobrist signed with the Mets.

The Cubs also overcame a 3-1 deficit to win the World Series.  The Mets were in the same position last year, and like the Cubs, the Mets had their starting pitching aligned.  It all seemed to be going according to plan as Harvey carried a shutout into the ninth inning.  As we remember, Terry Collins went against his better instinct, and he sent Harvey out there instead of Jeurys Familia.  Harvey allowed a walk and a double to narrow the gap to 2-1.  Familia then did his job getting the ground ball to get out of the game only for David Wright to cut off a ball he shouldn’t have played allowing Eric Hosmer an extra jump rounding third.  That was important as it gave Hosmer the ability to break for home, and he scored with Lucas Duda making the worst throw of his life.

Watching the 10th inning reminded me of that 12th inning game of that ill fated Game 5.  Watching a cold and tired Joe Shaw helplessly trying to get out of the jam reminded me of an overworked and tired Addison Reed getting hit left and right by the Royals in what was a devastating seven run inning.

In many respects, as a Mets fan it was tough to watch.  It was even tougher to watch when you consider Theo Epstein got his Cubs team to win the World Series before the Mets could win one despite Sandy Alderson having been on the job a year longer than Epstein.  It is all the more frustrating when you consider the Cubs beat out the Mets for Zobrist, and the Cubs spent a lot of money in the past offseason.

The one solace to take out of all of this is the fact that the Mets are built to win not just next year, but in the ensuing years.  And yes, the Mets are built to contend with or without Yoenis Cespedes.  Not only do the Mets have the pitching, but they also have players like Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario on the way.  There is still hope for Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud to rebound in 2017 to recapture their 2015 form.  Duda can put together a healthy contract year season.  There is still a lot of hope for the Mets to be World Series contenders the next couple of seasons.  There are also the seeds for a real rivalry between the Mets and the Cubs over the next few seasons.

However, as of right now, all that is left behind is a World Series victory for the Cubs, and the Mets wondering both “what if” and “how do we get back there.”  That is what stings most of all.

World Series Shows Pitch Framing Matters

Everywhere you turned last night, the major discussion was Home Plate Larry Vanover’s strike zone.  As it appeared by the fan watching at home on television, it seemed like Corey Kluber was getting a more favorable strike zone than the one Jon Lester was getting.  The critique wasn’t limited to just fans.  Lester had his own problems with the strike zone himself.

It was actually the same refrain Mets fans had in the Wild Card Game.  It appeared Madison Bumgarner was getting a larger strike zone than Noah Syndergaard was.  This was one of the reasons Bumgarner was able to go deeper into the game and help the Giants advance to the NLDS.  In the World Series, it was one of the reasons why Kluber dominated the Cubs and why Lester left the game down 3-0.

In both cases, it appears the viewers and the teams were correct.  One team was not getting the calls the other team was getting.  It is not because the umpiring crew likes one pitcher better than another.  It is not because umpires put bets down on both games.  It is because of the art of pitch framing.

In the Wild Card Game, Rene Rivera struggled in that department while Buster Posey, the best at it in the game, was on top of that aspect of his game.  It made a big difference in the game.  It was also a big difference last night.

During the 2016 season, both Roberto Perez and David Ross were exceptional pitch framers.  As it turns out, Perez was not only better during the regular season, he was also better last night.  Perez’s pitch framing makes such a huge difference in getting those borderline pitches for his staff.  It allows them to get an advantage in the count and to get that called third strike.  Indians backup catcher Chris Gimenez said it best when he said:

He is phenomenal.  Blocking, receiving — he’s elite, in my opinion. His game-calling has gone through the roof just from the beginning of this year. And he is literally an elite pitch framer. Even [Andrew Miller] today was like, “It’s so nice having him back there. He makes those 50-50 balls look so good, in the umpire’s eye, that’s a strike.”

(Ken Rosenthal, Fox Sports)

If that quote sounds familiar, it should.  Here is what Addison Reed had to say about Travis d’Arnaud:

There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look. He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.

(Mark Simon, ESPN).

While many choose to discount pitch framing, and the importance it has, teams and pitching staffs don’t.  There’s good reason for it.  As we saw in Game 1 of the World Series, it was the difference between Kluber throwing six shutout innings with nine strikeouts and no walks and Lester walking three and barking at the umpire.

With the Mets, it was the difference between Bumgarner going nine, and Syndergaard going seven.  It was also the difference between Reed being a pitcher with a career 4.20 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP to a dominant eighth inning reliever who has a 1.84 ERA and a 0.957 WHIP as a Met.  In total, it helps the entire Mets pitching staff.

Fact is pitch framing matters, and it has a huge impact on the game.  It was a big factor why the Indians won Game 1 of the World Series, and it was a factor in the Mets run to the World Series in 2015.  It will be a big factor in 2017 when a healthy d’Arnaud is able to catch a healthy Mets staff.

This Could Have Been the Mets

Last year, Ben Zobrist was one of the driving forces for a Royals team that beat the Mets in the World Series.  This year, he was more of the same for a Cubs team that is on the verge of winning their first World Series since 1908.  As luck would have it, Zobrist was one of the many “what if” decisions from the 2015 offseason that leads us to where the Mets are today.

Zobrist choosing the Cubs over the Mets led to a series of dominos falling.  It led to the Mets choosing to trade Jon Niese for Neil Walker instead of looking to re-sign Daniel Murphy.  That, coupled with Brandon Phillips rejected a trade, led Murphy to the Washington Nationals.  Murphy would go on to have an MVP caliber season.  Murphy’s season was more than enough to compensate for Bryce Harper having a down year, by his standards, and for Stephen Strasburg having yet another injury plagued year.

There were strange decisions along the way like the Mets initially passing on Yoenis Cespedes and signing Alejandro De Aza to platoon in center field with Juan Lagares.  There was the multi-year deal with Antonio Bastardo despite him being an every other year reliever and Sandy Alderson’s poor history signing relievers to a multi-year deal with the Mets.  Despite all of that, Cespedes re-signed, and the Mets once again looked like they were primed to return to the World Series in 2017.

Even with Cespedes’ return, the real hope was with the pitching.  Now one could compete with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard.  If Steven Matz could join his teammates as an ace all the better.  Even with this embarrassment of riches, the Mets still had Zack Wheeler returning from Tommy John surgery.  By the way, waiting to close out those games was Jeurys Familia, who had already established himself as a great closer.  As they said pitching wins championships, and the Mets had pitching in spades.

Early in the season, it worked out.  Even with Harvey struggling, deGrom’s velocity not returning, and Wheeler’s return getting pushed back, the Mets were winning.  Part of the reason why was Syndergaard taking the next step, Matz proving he belonged in the ace discussion, and deGrom adapting well to a lower velocity.

In April, the Mets took two out of three from the Indians in Cleveland.  In a re-match of the NLCS, with a hot Cubs team looking for revenge, the Mets swept them out of Citi Field.  Against this year’s World Series teams, the Mets were 7-3.  This showed the Mets, with their pitching staff in tact, could beat the best of the best.

As we know, the pitching staff never did stay in tact.  Furthermore, despite Walker having a good year, the Mets really missed Zobrist or Murphy as the offense was just one bat short to help carry a dinged up rotation to the finish line.  Still, with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman performing better than anyone could’ve anticipated, the Mets made the Wild Card Game.  In reality, the Mets lost that game because Madison Bumgarner was able to go deeper into that game than Syndergaard was.

As we saw in the NLDS, the Giants put a scare into the Cubs by almost sending it back to Wrigley Field for a Game 5.  With the Mets having Addison Reed and Familia, who knows if a Mets-Cubs series would have gone much differently.

Really, that is one of many “what if” situations from the 2016 season that was just disappointing to Mets fans who were dreaming of a World Series this year.  As we saw last year, this Mets pitching staff can beat anybody.  In fact, this Mets pitching staff can demoralize even the best offensive clubs.   When the Mets staff was healthy and in tact this year, which was only a brief snapshot in time (if it really ever was the case), the Mets once again proved that this year.  And with that, there is hope for 2017.  As of the moment, the Mets can expect, Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, and Matz in the Opening Day rotation.  There’s no team in baseball that can match that.

So while Mets fans are sitting there melancholy and wondering “what if” during what should prove to be a great World Series, just remember the Mets have the pitching to win in 2017.  Hopefully, that thought will keep you warm throughout the winter.

Simply Wild: Syndergaard/Bumgarner Was Every Bit Smoltz/Morris Was

Do you remember who got the game winning hit in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series?  It is one thing that is not often discussed because Jack Morris pitched a game so great that people cannot shake the idea that he should be a Hall of Famer.  In the other dugout was a young right-hander named John Smoltz who matched Morris pitch for pitch.  There were pivotal plays in that game you can point to as to why the Twins ultimately won.  However, the biggest reason was Morris was able to go the distance and the young Smoltz was only able to go 7.1 innings.

Last night wasn’t the World Series.  However, it was a winner-take-all game featuring just a tremendous pitching match-up.  The Giants had the grizzled veteran, Madison Bumgarner, who has laid claim to the best active postseason pitcher, if not all time.  The Mets were sending out Noah Syndergaard, who throws harder than anyone in baseball and is coming off a Cy Young caliber award season.   Simply put, you do not get better than this.

Bumgarner and Syndergaard were even more dominant than you would’ve thought they could be.  Combined, the two aces threw 227 pitches.  Only six of those pitches would result in base hits.  The two would combine for 16 strikeouts with just five walks.  No one would reach third base against them let alone score a run.  In July, this is a game that is game you would call an instant classic.  In the postseason, this is a game for the ages.

In the end, what did the Mets in was the fact Syndergaard was only able to go seven, and the Mets didn’t take advantage of their chances to score off Bumgarner.

The best chance came in the fifth when T.J. Rivera hit a leadoff double.  After a Jay Bruce strikeout, T.J. was quickly erased when Rene Rivera hit a grounder to the shortstop Brandon Crawford.  Being the Gold Glover and smart baseball player he was, Crawford caught T.J. straying just a little too far off second.  T.J. did alleviate some of the gaffe by forcing a run down that allowed Rene to get to second.  Ultimately, it didn’t matter as James Loney was intentionally walked, and then Syndergaard struck out to end not just the inning, but also the Mets only real threat of the game.

It was important to cash in there as no one was scoring off these pitchers today.  Syndergaard had a no-hitter going for 5.2 innings until Denard Span hit a single up the middle.  Span would try to turn this into a rally by stealing second (he was caught by Rivera earlier in the game), but it didn’t matter as Curtis Granderson turned into Endy Chavez for one play:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCTzWPOp6Ic

As we would find out later in the game, Endy Chavez was the right analogy.

Overall, the Giants could do nothing against Syndergaard.  He would pitch seven innings allowing just two hits while walking three.  He just dominated the Giants lineup.  Perhaps the best evidence of this is his 10 strikeouts on the night.

The turning point in the game was Syndergaard getting lifted.  It was completely the right move, and there should be no one second guessing it.  By that point, he had thrown 108 pitches, and he started to look gassed as he put the Giants to rest.

With Syndergaard out of the game, the Giants bats seemed to awaken.  Conor Gillaspie (more on him in a minute) greeted Addison Reed with a leadoff single.  After a Bumgarner sacrifice bunt, the Giants had a runner in scoring position with the top of their lineup coming up.  Reed would get Span to pop out for the second out setting the stage for a battle with Brandon Belt.  Reed really got squeezed in this at-bat with him throwing two or three clear strikes that were just not called.  Not only was Reed a bit flummoxed, but Rene seemed as if he was as well.  On the very next pitch, Reed got one over that Rene just missed (by the way the home plate umpire missed it too as it should have been called a strike).

This sent runners to second and third.  The Mets made the obvious choice there to intentionally walk Buster Posey to get to Hunter PenceThere was an ominous tone to the inning with the umpire missing strike calls, and the Giants seemingly gaining confidence with Syndergaard out of the game.  Reed then showed the world why he was the best relief pitcher in the National League this season by striking out Pence to keep the game tied up at 0-0.

After another feckless turn at the plate, the Mets brought in Jeurys Familia

He was in trouble immediately.  Crawford lined an opposite field double.  On the play, Yoenis Cespedes didn’t run hard after it.  If he was completely healthy, he has the speed to cut that ball off and keep Crawford at first.  What we don’t know is how healthy that leg is or whether or not he has that extra gear to cut that ball off.  What we do know if that he didn’t even try to do it.  With Crawford on second, the Giants had the exact situation the Mets squandered in the fifth inning.

Despite Angel Pagan trying to give himself up, Familia was having issues throwing strikes to him.  Many of his pitches landed short of home plate.  Still, Familia battled back into the at-bat, and after Pagan was unable to get the bunt down, Familia struck him out.  Familia then had similar issues with Joe Panik eventually walking him despite being 2-2 on him.  This set the stage for Gillaspie to have his Gene Larkin moment:

For what it’s worth, it was Alejandro Pena that gave up the walk-off hit to Larkin.  The Braves had obtained Pena from the Mets and made him the closer in the stretch drive.

Given Granderson’s catch earlier in the game, you could also refer to this as Gillaspie’s Yadier Molina moment.  Older Mets fans will call this the Mike Scioscia moment.

This was a crushing blow, not just because it gave the Giants a 3-0 lead, but also because it allowed Bruce Bochy to keep Bumgarner in the game instead of going to a bullpen the Mets were desperate to get into all game long.  Bumgarner came out in the ninth and made quick work of Cespedes, Granderson, and T.J.

This would be Bumgarner’s second complete game shutout on the road in the Wild Card Game.  He showed the Mets and the entire world why he is the best big game pitcher in all of baseball.  Oddly enough, he had been bested by the Mets young ace, Syndergaard.  While Syndergaard might’ve bested him, Bumgarner outlasted him.  Ultimately, that is why the Giants are going to Chicago and why the Mets season is over.

If you’re not a Mets fan, this has to be one of the best baseball games you have ever seen in your life.  If you are a Mets fan, you walk away taking stock in the fact that Syndergaard had the game of his life at a time when the Mets needed him most.  This year, Syndergaard didn’t just establish himself as the Mets ace; he established himself as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.  Last night, he took that a step further by announcing he’s a big game pitcher that’s every bit as good as Bumgarner.  In what has been a tough end to the season, Syndergaard gives you hope for the future.

Reasons to Believe the Mets Will Win the Wild Card Game

Noah Syndergaard

Yoenis Cespedes

Asdrubal Cabrera

Curtis Granderson

 

T.J. Rivera

Jay Bruce

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zu1toI7woD4

Alejandro De Aza

Rene Rivera

Jose Reyes

James Loney

Lucas Duda

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_42D7hjW-1U

Kelly Johnson

Travis d’Arnaud

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFgXQdYQna0

Michael Conforto

Juan Lagares

Jerry Blevins

Fernando Salas

Addison Reed

Jeurys Familia

Oh, and in case, you still think winning the Wild Card Game is impossible, there’s Bartolo Colon to show you nothing is impossible:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzLERV9l9Vs

Josh Edgin & Robert Gsellman on the Wild Card Game Roster; Lucas Duda, Seth Lugo, Josh Smoker Left Off

The New York Mets have announced their Wild Card Game Roster for tonight’s winner-take-all game tonight at Citi Field

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Pitchers

There were a few surprises on this roster. The one that immediately stands out is the Mets not carrying Lucas Duda on the roster. In a short period of time, Duda has gone from in the conversation to starting at first base tonight to not even being on the roster. His will be a big bat the Mets will miss for a late inning pinch hitting opportunity.

The next surprise was the Mets carrying Gsellman over Seth Lugo. While Gsellman has been the hotter pitcher over the past couple of starts, Gsellman does not have the experience Lugo has coming out of the bullpen.

The biggest surprise was the Mets carrying Edgin over Josh Smoker. This season, Smoker has struck out 14.7 batters per nine, and he has gotten the Mets out of a few tough jams. Edgin, on the other hand, has struggled this season due in large part to him not fully regaining his velocity after Tommy John surgery. However, despite the surprise, there is some justification for the decision.

First, both Smoker and Edgin are one inning pitchers. Each time Terry Collins has tried to push Smoker past one inning of work, he has allowed a second home run. With them both being one inning pitchers, the Mets most likely sought to use the pitcher who matches up better against the Giants. Given the Giants have many left-handed batters, Edgin seems to be the better choice. This season, lefties are hitting .235/.300/.235 off of Edgin as opposed to .360/.448/.600 off of Smoker.

Overall, the hope is that the Mets don’t have to use Edgin or worry about leaving Smoker off the roster. First and foremost, Blevins is going to be the LOOGY in the big spot, and Robleshas reverse splits. Additionally, the Mets 7-8-9- combination of Salas-Reed-Familia pitch just as well against lefties as they do to righties. In the end, so long as Syndergaard and the back end of the bullpen do their job, as we all expect they will do, the Edgin/Smoker decision will not amount to much.