With pitchers and catchers reporting today for the New York Mets, it is officially the beginning of Spring Training. This is an important time not just because it is the unofficial start of the 2021 baseball season, but also because the clock is officially ticking on the Mets trying to extend Michael Conforto.
This is Conforto’s last season before entering free agency. While Conforto has publicly stated he is open to signing an extension with the Mets, he has also indicated he wants this matter resolved one way or another by Opening Day. Put another way, Conforto doesn’t want negotiations to be a distraction during the season, and as such, if he is not extended by the start of the season, he will test free agency.
The question for Conforto is what exactly that extension would look like. For a point of reference, George Springer just signed a six year $150 million deal ($25 million AAV) with the Toronto Blue Jays. That was a deal the Mets were apparently unwilling to match, and it was a deal with exceeded Sandy Alderson’s preference for deals five years or shorter.
Now, there are differences between Springer and Conforto. Springer is arguably the better player, but he is also four years older. There’s also the matter of Conforto taking the mantle from David Wright in his being a beloved homegrown player and a leader in the clubhouse. Overall, when it comes to Conforto, he checks all the boxes from a team perspective.
That’s not to say the Mets should extend Conforto. For starters, the organization also has to have extension talks with Francisco Lindor. They also need to do the same with Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman. After this year, they will have to do the same with Seth Lugo, Brandon Nimmo, and at some point, Jacob deGrom. It is fair to question where extending Conforto lies in the pecking order.
There are some questions with Conforto. While he exploded at the plate last year returning to his pre-shoulder injury levels, he declined significantly in the field. While he was a 1 DRS in right, he was a -5 OAA which was a steep drop-off from previous seasons. Part of that was Conforto’s sprint speed taking a significant hit from 27.5 ft/sec to 26.8.
What is incumbent on the Mets now is determining how much of that is due to the disjointed nature of the 2020 season, and how much of that is the first step in decline. It’s not an easy answer, but it is one the Mets need to reasonably be able to decipher during Spring Training, which just began today.
Overall, extending Conforto would be extremely popular with the fans, and it will likely be very popular in the Mets clubhouse. There seems to be the appetite for all involved to get it done. The question now is whether they can. With Opening Day on April 1, Conforto and the Mets have 43 days to get it done.
When the New York Mets obtain a star, some have some trepidation. There are bad memories associated with the 1992 Mets as well as with future Hall of Famers like Roberto Alomar and All-Stars like Carlos Baerga.
Yes, those names were specifically chosen. They were not just chosen because they were great players before joining the Mets. They were also great Cleveland Indians players traded to the Mets.
What does that have to do with Francisco Lindor? In reality, absolutely nothing.
Alomar was 34 when the Mets obtained him. Baerga was hitting .267/.302/.396 with the Indians when the Mets obtained him.
Lindor is the best shortstop in baseball. In fact, since his debut in 2015, only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts have a higher WAR. That’s it. That’s the list.
No one asked if Trout should get the $426.5 million he received. There wasn’t a question about Betts’ $365 million extension. Yet, somehow, we see fans and articles question whether Lindor should receive an extension at all.
Really, it’s nonsense hand-wringing. It’s assuming everything goes wrong for the Mets. It’s remembering only the bad while conveniently forgetting Keith Hernandez, Mike Piazza, and even Johan Santana.
The Mets traded for those stars and gave them extensions. Hernandez led to the best stretch in Mets history and the team’s second World Series.
Piazza set records for homers as a catcher, led the Mets to consecutive postseasons for the first time in their history, the homer after 9/11, and he became the second player to wear a Mets cap on his Hall of Fame plaque.
Santana had the last great moment in Shea Stadium history, and to date, he’s thrown the only no-hitter in Mets history.
The point is for every Alomar, there’s a Piazza. For every Jason Bay or Bobby Bonilla, there’s a Carlos Beltran and Curtis Granderson.
There’s also the matter of next year’s free agent class. Lindor should find himself the biggest target, but Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, and Trevor Story will also be available.
Do the Mets want to sort through this class and have the Los Angeles Dodgers run up the bidding like they did with Trevor Bauer, or the way the Toronto Blue Jays did with George Springer. That’s nothing to say of the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox who are resetting under the luxury tax to position themselves to attack free agency next year.
That’s whenever free agency does begin. Remember, the CBA expires at the end of the season, which very well may lead to a strike or lockout. In those circumstances, it makes it all the more difficult to navigate your way through the offseason.
Regardless, all of that distracts from the main point. Francisco Lindor is a top three player in the sport and future Hall of Famer who is in his prime. Instead of inventing reasons to try to justify not extending him, we should all just demand the Mets extend him.
Look, the New York Mets still have work to do this offseason. That’s a result not just of how terrible Brodie Van Wagenen and Jeff Wilpon were, but it’s also representative of where the Mets aspirations are.
To that end, instead of looking at a rotation of Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, and eventually Noah Syndergaard buttressed by impressive depth, fans see a team in need of another starter. To be fair, the Mets organization does as well.
In light of that, the Mets pursued James Paxton, and they’ve pursued other starters as well. Except, the Mets didn’t get Paxton. He would return to the Seattle Mariners for a little more money to pitch at a place where he’s had success to rebuild his value.
Remember, Paxton has an injury history, and he’s coming off an injury. Would Paxton have made the Mets better? Sure. However, what he provides is fungible as compared to the free agent market.
Right now, pitchers like Taijuan Walker, Jake Odorizzi, and Rick Porcello are still free agents. Arguably, Paxton has the highest ceiling, but he may also have the lowest floor.
If the idea is to add a starter for depth, wouldn’t it be better to add the guy you can count on to be healthy? With that being the case, Paxton and Odorizzi aren’t the answer. Walker and Porcello are.
Regardless, missing out on Paxton is not remotely a big deal when you have these other options.
The same can be said about the Mets missing out on Justin Wilson.
Undoubtedly, with Seth Lugo‘s injury, there is an increased need for the Mets to bring in another reliever. Losing Lugo turns a bullpen which was looking like a strength and turning it into a question mark.
Yes, Wilson was quite good with the Mets, and he’s likely to be quite good next year. To that point, it makes the Aaron Loup signing all the more curious. Wilson would’ve likely been far superior for that role, but for some reason, the organization thought Loup was the better fit.
Even with that, there still remains quality options available. There’s Trevor Rosenthal who seemed to put the injuries behind him to return to his dominant form. David Robertson is coming off Tommy John, and he’s been a dominant late inning reliever in his career. There are other interesting names like MVP vote getter Ryan Tepera.
If the Mets want a strictly left-handed reliever, Oliver Perez is available. Put the old nonsense aside, Perez has been a quality reliever. There’s also Tony Watson, who can provide every bit what Wilson could’ve provided.
In total, there’s still plenty of quality arms on the free agent market who can easily provide what Paxton and Wilson would’ve. In fact, there are pitchers available who are in fact better. Because of this, there is absolutely zero reason to get upset over missing those two or other similarly skilled pitchers.
Really, the only time to get upset is in the event the Mets don’t add another starter or reliever. That said, based on all we’ve seen this offseason, it’s hard to believe that’ll happen.
When discussing the 2021 roster, we continue to wonder what the Mets will do at third, left, and center. Part of the rationale there is the overriding assumption Jeff McNeil will only play second.
This isn’t just the Mets furthering the talking point of 2018 that McNeil is only a second baseman. Really, it’s not that at all. Instead, it’s just finding a position for McNeil and a replacement for Robinson Cano.
That said, sticking McNeil at second is reaching the pathological. It’s at the point where many are suggesting Luis Guillorme is a possible option at third. Not second where he is great, but third.
Having McNeil on the roster is an absolute gift, and just pigeonholing him to second is baseball malpractice. Remember, not only can McNeil play multiple positions, but in his career, he has a positive DRS at all four positions he has played at the MLB level (2B, 3B, LF, RF).
Yes, you absolutely can play McNeil everyday at second. However, it is arguably his worst position. Even with his early season struggles there last year, third is actually his best position with left field probably his next best position.
In essence, this is like having Ben Zobrist in his prime. Yes, Zobrist did eventually settle at second, but he also played all over. The operating plan with Zobrist seemed to be he had to play everyday, but where he would play would be dictated by the rest of the roster and lineup.
That’s how the Mets should be entering this season. It’s all well and good to think McNeil could be your best second base option, but they can’t overlook displacing McNeil from that position and shifting him elsewhere should another option emerge.
Overall, if you’re limiting McNeil to just second, you’re taking away part of what makes him great. Instead of treating him like just a second baseman, they should treat him like the player who can and should be moved around the diamond to help the Mets offensively and defensively.
Perhaps, the New York Mets just heard the worst possible news they could’ve heard. Seth Lugo needed elbow surgery, and he may not be able to pitch again until May, which is probably the optimistic view .
Guys ……… it's at least six weeks until Lugo can *throw*. And then probably six or so weeks of "spring" training. That puts him at mid-May. That's a quarter of the season. That is a big chunk of the season.
— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) February 13, 2021
Make no mistake here. The Mets need Lugo back as soon as he can get back to being Lugo. That Lugo is the best and most versatile reliever in baseball. That reliever was desperately needed to stabilize this Mets bullpen.
Edwin Diaz is coming off a tremendous bounce-back year. That said, it was still just 26 appearances, and he still managed to blow 40% of his save opportunities. Moreover, he’s developed an every other year pattern with 2021 projected to be the down year.
Jeurys Familia has not been good since returning to the Mets, and based on his FIP, it’ll be difficult to imagine him turning it around in 2021.
There are some indications we could see a bounce back year from Dellin Betances. Still, Betances needs to regain some velocity and control with the latter always being an issue for him.
Miguel Castro may have a live arm, but he’s yet to harness it. He’s got a very poor career 4.7 BB/9, and even with the strikeout numbers, he only has a 1.59 K/BB, and batters hit .244 against him.
Aaron Loup has traditionally pitched well against left-handed batters, but he’s historically struggled against right-handed batters.
When you break it all down, the only pitcher you can truly have confidence in the Mets bullpen is Trevor May. Part and parcel of that is how the aforementioned relievers will be deployed has now been altered by Lugo’s injury.
Now, this is an opportunity for another pitcher, but they have to grab it.
Drew Smith has tremendous velocity and spin. The same holds true for Yennsy Diaz and Sean Reid-Foley. None of these three have been able to establish themselves yet with the later two having significant control issues. This also applies to Franklyn Kilome.
Robert Gsellman could return to the form we saw of him when he first landed in the bullpen. One of Joey Lucchesi or Jordan Yamamoto could find themselves there pending the results of the fifth starter spot.
There’s also the free agent and trade market as well. Even at this point in the offseason, there are still quality options remaining.
No matter where the Mets look, they’re not finding anyone nearly as good as Lugo. If they can’t, it throws the entire bullpen and pitching staff in disarray. As we’ve seen in years past, bad bullpens can ruin good teams.
These Mets are a good team. They might be a great team. However, with the loss of Lugo, their chances of hitting that ceiling took a massive hit. At the end of the day, there’s just no replacing the best reliever in baseball.
Instead, the Mets have to just hope they have enough quality depth. They need to hope 1-2 pitchers really step up. Mostly, they just need to hope Lugo is able to be Lugo at some point in 2021.
The New York Mets were able to absolutely steal Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Cleveland Indians. Yes, the Mets gave up real value, but by no means was it commensurate with the return.
There are factors for that including Lindor’s expiring deal and the Mets taking on $34.3 million in salary for 2021 alone. Seeing that could make you believe the Mets could obtain Kris Bryant and his $19.5 million in Bryant’s last year before free agency.
Such optimism is misplaced for a number of reasons. First, the Chicago Cubs are somewhat vacillating between tearing it down and competing in a dreadful NL Central. Mostly, the Cubs aren’t going to let their homegrown superstar, the man who fielded what was the final out of their first World Series in 108 years go at a discount.
If you’re a team like the Mets, the question is how far do you go to get Bryant. The answer should be very far.
Yes, Bryant struggled in 2020. His career low 77 wRC+ was largely due to a mixture of his shoulder and oblique issues and just the truly bizarre nature of the 2020 season.
Keep in mind, there should be some positive course correction with Bryant having a .264 BABIP which is well off his career mark of .339. Of course, part of that was his poor contract numbers. He wasn’t squaring balls up or hitting balls hard.
Again, Bryant dealt with an oblique injury. Presumably, that should not be an issue in 2021. If that is the case, Bryant could return to the player who had a 139 wRC+ over the first five seasons of his career.
That 139 mark bests all Mets hitters over that time frame. In fact, it’s the 17th best in all of baseball and third best at his position. His fWAR over that stretch has him as the best third baseman in the game. Notably, his bWAR has him lower down the list, but that said, he’s still among the best in the game.
Keep in mind, he’s not just a third baseman. He’s also spent time at first and all three outfield positions. This would give Luis Rojas some flexibility both in setting the lineup and late in games.
All told, Bryant would fill a huge hole on the roster, and he arguably becomes the second best player on the roster. Put another way, he makes the Mets a SIGNIFICANTLY better team. He may even make them the World Series favorites.
What do you give up for this? A lot!
Rumors are the Cubs have interest in David Peterson. Honestly, he shouldn’t be the hold-up. Peterson shouldn’t be getting in the way of the Mets and the World Series. That goes double when the Mets can possibly obtain another piece from the Cubs.
Sure, there is a line. There always should be one. That’s likely in the vicinity of Francisco Alvarez and Matthew Allan. Keep in mind as the Mets draw this line, they will receive a compensatory second round pick should Bryant not re-sign (presuming he’s extended a qualifying offer).
At the end of the day, the Mets have to ask who exactly in their system is worth not adding the missing piece to this roster. Which prospect or player should stand in the way of the best infield in all of baseball and quite possibly a World Series.
And that right there is why the Mets should be willing to pay a hefty price for Bryant.
After the Mets signed Jonathan Villar to a free agent deal, the Mets were forced to make a move with the 40 man roster. They opted to designate Brad Brach for assignment.
Brach grew up a Mets fan. In fact, he loved the Mets so much he went to Game 3 of the World Series as a fan despite being a member of the Baltimore Orioles at the time. Brach would say seeing David Wright homering in that game was one of his favorite moments.
"When David Wright hit that home run…it was probably one of the best baseball moments I've had"
Brad Brach is a huge Mets fan and was at Game 3 of the 2015 World Series pic.twitter.com/utq57MBFfS
— SNY (@SNYtv) August 9, 2019
Speaking of Wright, he was also a huge Mets fan growing up. Like Brach, he’s also not a part of the organization. While Wright was a part of the front office with the Wilpons, he’s not right now as his contract with the team expired.
As if that’s not bad enough, it appears his number 5 was given to Albert Almora. You’d have to assume this was a mistake, and yet, there it is. Not only is his role gone but apparently so is his number. On the former, the door could be open for Wright to have a role with the team in 2021.
The same can not be said for Wright’s former teammate Steven Matz. The Long Island native grew up a Mets fan. What was once a fairy tale with his grandfather literally jumping for joy ended with him being traded for the Toronto Blue Jays.
It could be worse. Rick Porcello grew up a Mets fan, and when he hit free agency for the first time, he actually took less money to fulfill his childhood dream to pitch for the Mets. What ensued was a career worst season.
Now, he’s a free agent, and at the moment, it seems like no one has any interest in him. That puts him in the same situation as Brach.
Two lifelong Mets fans who dreamed of pitching for the Mets only for it to all go wrong. Now, they’re looking for a new place to play because the place they wanted to play more than anywhere doesn’t want them.
All told, that just sums up just how bad of an offseason for a player to be a Mets fan. If you grew up a Mets fan, there just doesn’t seem to be a spot for you with the Mets in 2021 or beyond.
Before the sale of the New York Mets to Steve Cohen, you could almost be assured the team would have had heavy interest in Jake Arrieta. Really, this was a play out of their playbook. It was a big name, and they could tout adding a Cy Young winner to the rotation.
We saw it just last offseason. They let Zack Wheeler go to the Philadelphia Phillies unchallenged and chastised him as having two half seasons. They would then promote adding former Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and former NLCS MVP Michael Wacha. It didn’t matter neither pitcher was still in that form, they were names the Mets could tout, and so they did.
Looking at Arrieta, it is hard to argue he is anything more than just a name at this point in his career. Like with Porcello and Wacha, he is far removed from the form he once was.
Since signing with the Phillies, Arrieta has seen his ERA rise in each of the last three seasons while seeing his ERA+ drop to a 90. His WHIP has gotten successively worse while seeing his H/9 and K/BB worsen each season. During his time in Philadelphia, he had a 4.36 ERA, 99 ERA+, and a 4.55 FIP. Based upon what we’ve seen of the soon to be 35 year old pitcher, that is only going to get worse.
Over at Baseball Savant, we see Arrieta has ceased getting swing and misses, and the contact against him has gotten increasingly harder. Batters are having an easier time squaring him up, and his velocity is down. When he was throwing 95 MPH with the Chicago Cubs, he was a true ace. At 92, he’s been a fifth starter on the verge of being a pitcher who may be forced into retirement.
Really, when you look at Arrieta, you have to wonder why the Mets would have interest. Arrieta hasn’t been all that good the past two seasons, and he has been trending downward since that Cy Young season in 2015. Of course, with all of these reasons, you could also understand the Mets may pursue him because they feel like they could build on something.
On that note, Arrieta’ GB/FB rate was back to the levels it was when he won the Cy Young in 2015. He was also unlucky last year with a .333 BABIP. Certainly, if you are the Mets, you can look at the addition of Francisco Lindor and their attempts to build an infield in 2021, and you could certainly talk yourself into it working.
If nothing else, it is a plan which would allow David Peterson to begin the year in Triple-A Syracuse. It allows the team to have to only look to rely on one of Joey Lucchesi or Jordan Yamamoto in the rotation. It is a bridge to when Noah Syndergaard is ready. Based on the likely commitment required to sign him, it is entirely possible it will be easy to cut bait with him should he falter.
On those grounds, you can certainly understand the Mets line of thinking. That said, when there are better and higher upside options available like James Paxton, you do wonder why the Mets would push for Arrieta right now. If the team was still operated by Jeff Wilpon, you would understand, and you could see this coming a mile away.
However, now, this move at this time seems odd. Perhaps, the Mets won’t go this route until the rest of the free agent starting pitching market shakes out. Maybe, they know something we don’t. At this point, it is anyone’s guess. We can only hope they know better and their hedging their bets here will pay off in a way it typically didn’t under Jeff Wilpon.
The biggest issue with the New York Mets system has been Major League ready outfield talent. The Mets might’ve just gotten that by inserting themselves into the Andrew Benintendi trade.
By parting with the newly acquired John Winchowski and a player to be named later, the Mets acquired CF Khalil Lee from the Kansas City Royals.
Khalil Lee… *nods* pic.twitter.com/qHKs4Nnydy
— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) February 11, 2021
Lee, 22, has all of the tools to be a very good player at the Major League level. He’s got tremendous speed stealing 53 bases in Double-A. He’s got real raw power, and he’s got a very strong arm.
While Lee should have the speed for center, the general consensus is he’s a better fit in right. As far as the Mets are concerned, they can push Lee in center for two reasons.
First, Mallex Smith shouldn’t stand in his way in Syracuse. Second, this is a team who is going with Brandon Nimmo in center. Put another way, they don’t seem to overly prioritize center field defense. Mostly, it’s better to find out if you can help him stick in center before moving him to the corner.
The biggest question for Lee is whether he has the approach and ability to make contact to get the most out of his talent. While he’s maintained a very good walk rate in his minor league career, his strikeout rate has been high leading towards a woeful 28.2% in 2019.
Now, it’s hard to find out what Lee did to address that during 2020. After all, there weren’t any games. We shouldn’t read too much in the Royals parting with him. After all, they just netted Benintendi.
Overall, the Mets got themselves a real prospect, and it’s now incumbent on them to develop Lee. If successful, they might’ve gotten a future star. If not, they got a future bench piece who can develop into more.
Whatever the trajectory, the Mets now have to work to get Lee to reach his full potential. Obviously, that’s much easier said than done.
Keep in mind, the Mets needed prospects like this. They needed a near Major League ready outfielder. That’s Lee.
We don’t know where Lee goes from here, but we do know he’s more talented than what the Mets already had. Far more. They got a player who might help this year and be a starter in the next year.
Regardless of the outcome, the Mets got a real talent. That’s a great get for them. Now, it’s time for them to get Lee to the majors.