Mets Can’t Undo Great Offseason By Putting J.D. Davis At Third

Look across the diamond. The New York Mets are a significantly better baseball team. It’s not just better in terms of the rotation and starting lineup, but it’s also better in terms of their burgeoning depth. Despite that, somehow, the Mets failed to address their biggest need of the offseason – third base.

J.D. Davis is the incumbent third baseman, and simply put, he has done nothing but prove he has no business playing the position at the Major League level. In his career, he has played 770.0 innings there, and he has amassed a -19 DRS. As previously put in perspective, that was worse than what Wilmer Flores posted as the position, and there was near unanimous consent Flores should never man the position again.

The Mets were well aware of this, and that’s why they seemingly went out of their way this offseason to say they were going to upgrade at third base. He said the position was “up in the air,” and the team went on what seemed to be wild goose chases for Kris Bryant and Eugenio Suarez. For all we know, they are still doing all they can to pry those players loose from their current teams.

When the Mets were unable to acquire a real third baseman before the start of Spring Training, Luis Rojas was reluctant to name anyone as the team’s third baseman. That would appear to be an indictment of Davis, especially with second base becoming vacant with Robinson Cano‘s season long suspension.

At least on the surface, it would seem Davis would keep his slot at third with Jeff McNeil becoming the everyday third baseman. However, that’s not entirely possible with Davis not being able to play the position. In fact, Davis is literally the worst fielder in the Major Leagues.

Over the past two seasons, Davis has amassed a combined -29 DRS. That includes a -17 DRS at third and a -12 DRS in left field. Just to put in perspective how bad that is, he is the only player to appear TWICE among the worst 30 fielders over the past two seasons. As we’ve seen, the Mets just can’t hide him in the field. That goes double for third.

Making Davis at third even worse is the current complexion of the Mets pitching staff. Overall, this is a heavy ground ball pitching staff. To wit, here are their GB/FB ratios since 2017:

Looking at the make-up of the Mets top eight starting pitching options, seven of them induce batters to hit the ball on the ground. That makes having a good defensive infield more of an imperative. Yes, Francisco Lindor goes a long way towards doing that, but by playing Davis next to him, the Mets are effectively neutralizing Lindor’s effect.

Digging deeper, the Mets are going to play Pete Alonso at first where he is not a good fielder. That means the Mets are going to trot out a ground ball staff and have the Major League worst defense at the corners. Really, this does not remotely make any sense whatsoever. Really, it’s ponderous the Mets would even consider going in this direction.

When you look at it from that perspective, Davis cannot play third everyday. It only serves to hurt the team. Ideally, the Mets would pull off that blockbuster we’ve been waiting for them to pull off all offseason to acquire a third baseman, or they need to play Luis Guillorme everyday at second pushing McNeil to third, where he is a better fielder.

No matter what the Mets do, they simply cannot make Davis the everyday third baseman. They’ve done far too much this offseason, and they’ve built their team a certain way. Allowing Davis and his defense, or lack thereof, diminish or neutralize it, makes zero to no sense.

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Using Fernando Tatis Extension As Model For Francisco Lindor

As has been reported, Fernando Tatis, Jr. signed a 14 year $340 million contract extension with a full no trade clause. Naturally, when it comes to the Mets, the question is how exactly would this impact a potential Francisco Lindor extension.

Now, there are considerations to take into account. First, Tatis had years of arbitration which needed to be addressed in a deal like this. Tatis is also a little more than five years younger. All of these factors impact the contract.

When looking at the extension to apply to Lindor, there are two key points. The first is what Tatis will be paid entering his age 28 season.

If Tatis had not signed an extension, he would’ve been a free agent after the 2024 season. One of the sites which has the breakdown of the contract is Spotrac.

Looking at his contract at that point, it’s a 10 year $324 million deal with a $32.4 million AAV. Arguably, that’s the vicinity of an extension which Lindor could want from the Mets.

Of course, that takes Tatis from age 26 – 35. Lindor is currently 27, and he would be looking to sign as a free agent entering his age 28 season.

When Tatis enters his age 28 season, his salary jumps from $20 to $25 million. That further impacts his AAV. From age 28 – 35, Tatis’ deal is eight years $266 million. That’s an AAV of $33.25 million.

Basically, when you break it down, Tatis’ extension sets the stage for Lindor to seek a contract extension north of $30+ million a year. In fact, with Tatis making $36 million over the final six years of his deal, Lindor could reasonably seek an AAV in that ballpark.

As an aside, the Mets reportedly offered Trevor Bauer $40 million to pitch for them in 2021 which opt outs in future years. It’s hard to unring that bell if you’re a player and his agent when negotiating a deal with the Mets.

It’s also difficult to unring the $35 million AAV the Mets were willing to pay Bauer if he had signed the contract and opted in all three years.

When it comes to Lindor, he’s a far superior player to Bauer. He’s a future Hall of Famer as well. It’s going to be extremely difficult for the Mets to argue Lindor is worth less than Bauer.

Given track record, it’s also difficult to argue Lindor should be paid less than Tatis. Again, that means the starting point for the Mets and Lindor is a contract north of $30 million per year, and when all is said and done, he could very well be pushing $40 million.

That’s where the Tatis extension put the ballpark of a Lindor one. The Bauer offer makes it all the more difficult for the Mets. Whether the Mets get to that point remains to be seen, but that said, the Mets had to be prepared to do that when they pulled off this trade.

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Jarred Kelenic Should Demand A Trade

No, this is not the insane ramblings of a New York Mets fan still bitter over the Robinson Cano trade debacle. While still bitter about it, and forever will be, this is about Seattle Mariners President Kevin Mather unapologetically saying the quiet part out loud.

Essentially, Maher said Jarred Kelenic was going to start the season on the Opening Day roster if he signed a contract with the Mariners buying out some of his free agent years. As noted, Evan White signed such a deal, purportedly against the advice of the union, and he began the season in the majors.

Now, we know teams play this game all the time, and many call it service time manipulation. The thing is team’s are never supposed to overtly say or admit it even when it is painfully obvious like with Kris Bryant and the Chicago Cubs in 2015.

With Bryant, he officially filed a grievance over it. He’d lose mostly because the Cubs had some plausible deniability. With Maher overtly saying it, or at least very strongly implying it, there really is no doubt what the Mariners are doing here.

The Mariners more or less publicly stated since Kelenic wouldn’t sign their contract offer, he can wait a few weeks for his Major League career to begin. Essentially, they’re punishing him by not doing what they want, and they’re going to keep him an additional year.

Again, this has been the standard practice with few exceptions. However, it is far from standard for teams to tell people they’re actually doing it. The Mariners aren’t even doing the traditional wink and a nod.

In retaliation, Kelenic should give the Mariners an ultimatum – put me on the Opening Day roster, or trade me.

Yes, in baseball this would be entirely unprecedented. It’s almost as unprecedented as a team president admitting the team is manipulating service team and not calling up players unless they sign their contract offer.

However, outside of baseball this wouldn’t be all that unprecedented. Eli Manning told the San Diego Chargers he wouldn’t play for them, which led to his being traded to the New York Broncos. That was akin to John Elway signing with the New York Yankees because he refused to play for the Baltimore Colts.

The New York Rangers have benefitted from this signing Kevin Hayes who became a free agent after not signing with the Chicago Blackhawks. Current defenseman Aaron Fox saw his rights traded twice partially as a result of his really wanting to play for his hometown Rangers.

So while they do this in other sports, it hasn’t happened in baseball, at least not yet.

That said, the Mariners can throw out all they want they want to see Kelenic get some Triple-A at-bats, but it’s nonsense. Just look at players like Miguel Cabrera, Michael Conforto, and Juan Soto.

More than that, look at how the Mariners operate. White signs the deal, and he goes from Double-A to the majors. Kelenic doesn’t, and he needs about a month of Triple-A at-bats. It’s beyond obvious what they’re doing, and that’s partially because they’re saying it.

Because of what the Mariners are doing, Kelenic should in respond in kind. There are 29 other teams who would line up to put him on their Opening Day roster if they could get him into their system. If the Mariners won’t put him on theirs, he should tell the team he won’t play for them.

After all, what’s the worst the Mariners can do here? Not pay him? In case they haven’t noticed, they’ve been effectively not paying him for two years. They’re now threatening to not do that for another month, which is exactly why Kelenic should make this demand.

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David Peterson Must Now Start 2021 Season In Syracuse

The Mets have signed Taijuan Walker to join a rotation which already has Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, and Carlos Carrasco. With Noah Syndergaard set to return from Tommy John this season, that means the fifth starter role on the Opening Day rotation is a temporary one.

That is yet another reason why David Peterson should be starting the 2021 season in Syracuse.

Entering 2020, Peterson was the top pitching prospect in the Mets organization, and at one point in his minor league career, he was considered a top 100 prospect. Even though he pitched for the Mets in that bizarre and truncated season, in many ways, Peterson remains a pitching prospect, and he should be treated as such.

If you are an organization, you don’t take your best Major League ready pitching prospect and put him in the rotation for just two months with the plan of moving him back to the minors or even the bullpen. As a plan, that makes zero to no sense. It’s a gross mishandling of a prospect.

That’s before you also consider Peterson still needs to develop. He did walk 11.7% of the batters he faced. Even with the caveat of Wilson Ramos behind the plate, that’s terrible, and it will not be sustainable for the course of a full season. To be fair, this has not been a significant issue during his minor league career, and as Derek Carty, then of Fangraphs, pointed out ground ball pitchers can get away with a higher walk rate.

The control manifested itself in other areas than just walk rate for Peterson. Last year, he was below average in terms of barrel rates and 10.2% of fly balls against him went for homers. That’s a rate which followed him from Double-A, and that is a poor rate. If you are a pitcher who pitches to contact like Peterson does, you cannot yield that high of a home run rate. These are areas Peterson should be able to address and improve. However, that is difficult when you are bouncing between the majors and Triple-A.

The good news for the Mets is they have built depth sufficient to allow Peterson to continue to develop in the minors. They have both Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto. In terms of Yamamoto, he only has one option remaining, and you don’t want to burn it if you don’t need to do it. With Lucchesi, the Mets have a pitcher who had a much better FIP than Peterson.

That’s an important consideration here. Peterson is not definitively better than the pitchers in the Mets organization. Aside from Lucchesi and Yamamoto, the Mets also have pitchers like Jerad Eickhoff, who should not be completely discounted with his now being over a full season being removed from a biceps issue, and Corey Oswalt.

The point is for two months the Mets have options. Those options could also include bullpenning games with them having both Lucchesi and Yamamoto. When you examine all the options, you see the Mets don’t need to force Peterson into the rotation for two months only to remove him and send him down to Syracuse or the bullpen. No, the better course is for Peterson to start the year in Syracuse to develop and be ready for when the first pitcher in the rotation goes down with an injury.

 

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Taijuan Walker Setting Stage To Be Mets Fan Favorite

New York Mets fans really love their players. That goes double for those players who implicitly get it on some level. Those players become fan favorites.

It’s not necessarily limited to the David Wrights and Mike Piazzas of the world. We’ve seen it with Wilmer Flores with his crying on the field and walk-off hits. Curtis Granderson was as good and decent a man who ever donned a Mets uniform.

The key with most of these fan favorites is they let the fans know they’re loved and appreciated. On some level, the player just gets in. With respect to that, we’re seeing some of that already with Taijuan Walker.

Already, we have seen Walker give a nod to the late, great Tom Seaver, a pitcher who will forever be in Mets fans hearts, by apparently celebrating his new contract with GTS wine:

Walker has also already engaged the fans. In his career, Walker has worn both 00 and 99. Apparently, he’s heavily considering both, and on that front, he’s invited Mets fans feedback:

What’s important is none of this appears phony. It’s does genuinely seem to be who he is. After all, he recently posted videos of him dunking and his attempting to dunk.

All told, Walker is already doing all the right things to show fans he gets it. He doesn’t just want to wear a Mets uniform. He wants to be a part of the fabric of the organization. Fans will notice and love him for it.

Don’t be surprised if Mets fans suddenly adore Walker. That will go double if he builds off a strong 2020 season to be a key cog in a rotation which carries the Mets to the World Series.

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Noah Syndergaard Defeats Trevor Bauer

Well, we know many things about Noah Syndergaard. He’s an ace level pitcher. He loves mixing it up on social media. He hates the Los Angeles Dodgers.

As we head forwards the 2021 season, the pitcher who is returning from Tommy John is mixing it up again, and he took on reigning Cy Young Trevor Bauer:

Bauer noticed the tweet, and he decided to respond. Things didn’t go well for Bauer, and if this is any indication of how he fares against tough competition, the Dodgers are going to quickly regret that contract.

There wasn’t much you could say for Bauer in this exchange other than he knew when he was beat. He punched out, and the exchange ended there.

However, that’s likely not the end of the story. The Mets and Dodgers meet six times in August, and it’s safe to say Syndergaard will have returned from Tommy John by then. With no DH, we could see Syndergaard standing 60’6″ away from Bauer. If not then, maybe October.

Needless to say, the tensions between the Mets and Dodgers are already ratcheting up before anyone threw a pitch. Even without that, Syndergaard was able to pick up the first win in what may soon become a rivalry.

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Taijuan Walker Good Signing For Mets

The New York Mets needed to get just one more starter to make this the truly deep rotation they need. This doesn’t mean deep as in going 1-5 in the rotation, but also the type of depth needed to get through the rigors of a 162 game season. The later was of increased importance as pitchers did not throw many innings last season.

While we have seen some players sign with other teams, the Mets obtained Taijuan Walker. Walker, 28, is arguably the perfect fit for this team.

At 28, Walker is in the prime of his career. The once top 10 prospect in baseball dealt with injury issues limiting him to just 14 innings from 2018-2019. Last year, he finally proved healthy in the truncated 60 game season last year. Yes, it was just 37% of the length of a normal season, but it was a positive step.

Last year, Walker made 11 starts going 4-3 with a 2.70 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, and an 8.4 K/9. He was at his career averages for hard hit rate. Believe it or not, his 30.9% hard hit rate was actually better than what Jacob deGrom yielded last year. This is an indication as to how difficult it can be to square up Walker at times.

Digging deeper into Baseball Savant, Walker was middle of the pack in terms of exit velocity while being above average in terms of hard hit rate. However, it should be noted he was way down the ledger in terms of spin, velocity, and whiff rates. Of course, one of the reasons for this is Walker is a sinkerball pitcher who has typically pitched to contact.

Keep in mind, Walker is evolving as a pitcher. Before the 2021 season, he spoke to Fangraphs about going to Driveline. While there, Walker refined his slider, worked on changing speeds, grips, arm placement, and generally speaking, being a better pitcher. We saw the early effects of that in 2020.

Now, in 2021, he is going to be another year removed from Tommy John allowing him to continue to increase velocity. He also has a better sense of what worked for him in 2020 and what didn’t. He’s also in a really good place for him to succeed.

Jeremy Hefner has had success in Minnesota working with sinkerball pitchers. Walker is reunited with Marcus Stroman, who can served as a mentor of sorts, and who is also blessed with a similar type of game. There is James McCann behind the plate, who has developed not only as an excellent framer, but early on in Spring Training, he has emerged as a true leader.

Now, Walker is on a pitching staff where he can thrive. He is also in an organization which is continuing to beef up its analytics department. At 28, he still has upside, and he certainly is putting in the work to get the most out of his talent. In all likelihood, last year was him just scratching the surface.s

As for the Mets, this now adds another established high ceiling starter to their rotation. That also gives them increased depth in the rotation. When Noah Syndergaard returns, the Mets rotation will now undoubtedly be the best in baseball. All told, while he may not have been the top choice by many, Walker fits in perfectly with the Mets.

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Mets Need To Keep Marcus Stroman For Rest Of His Career

When Marcus Stroman stepped to the microphone to speak with the media for the first time this season, he reminded everyone why the New York Mets need to extend him past this season. This is a great pitcher born to play in New York.

In that press conference, Stroman spoke about things we already knew about him. He believes in himself, and a huge reason why is because the man puts in the work.

Call it confidence, or call it ego. Just don’t call it hubris.

Stroman literally turns over every possible stone there is to improve as a pitcher. He trains to make sure he’s in exceptional shape. He focuses on the mental side of not just the game, but also his life. He keeps his family close, protects them, and appreciates them. He also is constantly evolving.

Here’s what’s interesting about the splitter. Back in 2018, when the Toronto Blue Jays signed Matt Shoemaker, part of Stroman’s reaction was he wanted to learn the pitch. We’re seeing that again with the Mets.

Stroman has been unabashedly honest saying Jacob deGrom is the best pitcher in the game. Fully knowing that, Stroman takes full advantage watching and learning from deGrom.

He’s been actively talking with deGrom how to be a better pitcher. This is exactly who Stroman is. This is a pitcher who does everything he can to go out there to improve and beat the other team.

He really does all he can. Remember, this is an elite defender on the mound. Mets fans saw a glimpse of that in his first start for the team. He also works on varying his delivery and timing to throw off the hitters. Really, he leaves no stone unturned.

Honestly, as he ages, you can see Stroman being the type of guy who reaches out to Tim Wakefield and R.A. Dickey to learn the knuckleball. If for no other reason, he’ll do it so he knows it for the time in his career when he may need it.

This is also why he’s a big game pitcher. His belief in himself and his teammates manifests itself when he takes the mound. It’s why he was the World Baseball Classic MVP, and why he had some of the guttiest performances you’ll see returning from an ACL injury to pitch for the Blue Jays in the postseason.

Overall, if you look at Stroman, you see a pitcher who will age well because he d constantly working to improve. Yes, every Major Leaguer does that to some degree, but Stroman is at another level.

Stroman is a pitcher who loves and thrives on the big stage. He’s the biggest advocate for his teammates. He loves the game, and he loves improving. This is a man who belongs in New York, and the Mets should do everything they can to ensure he spends the rest of his career here.

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Making Sense Of Mets Signing Kevin Pillar

When you look at the New York Mets 40 man roster, Albert Almora was probably the only player you trusted playing center field. Unfortunately, even with his success working with Chili Davis in the past, he really didn’t have a sufficiently good enough bat to stick in the lineup. That made Almora good depth, especially with his having a minor league option.

It appears Almora is going to use that option this year with the Mets signing Kevin Pillar.

Pillar, 32, used to be one of the best defensive center fielders in the game even if he didn’t have the Gold Gloves to show for it. In fact, from 2015 – 2017, Pillar only trailed Kevin Kiermaier in terms of DRS among center fielders. He had accumulated the sixth highest WAR among all Major Leaguers during this stretch.

After that, Pillar’s defense took a nosedive. From 2018 – 2020, Pillar has a -14 DRS. Essentially, he transitioned from Gold Glove caliber to a player who needs to move to a corner outfield position. To be fair, OAA has painted a slightly different picture with Pillar posting a -1 OAA over that stretch.

Regardless of whether you trust DRS or OAA, it should be clear Pillar’s days of being a defensive replacement are all but over. He no longer has the glove to be that late inning defensive replacement, and truth be told, Brandon Nimmo has posted not too different defensive numbers. In fact, over the last three years, Nimmo has a -11 DRS and -2 OAA albeit in fewer innings.

Looking at it that way, you could question what role Pillar would play. To that end, the answer very clearly could be as a platoon bat. In fact, over the past three years, Pillar has a 105 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Over the past two years, that number is a 119 wRC+.

Of course, the problem is that’s not necessarily an upgrade for the Mets. Over the past three years, Michael Conforto has a 112 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Nimmo has a 126, and Dominic Smith has a 128. That makes all three of the projected Mets Opening Day outfield as better hitters against left-handed pitching.

That said, Pillar is still a better option that players like Almora, Guillermo Heredia, and Mallex Smith. You can trust Pillar a lot more defensively than Jose Martinez. Really, when you break it down, Pillar provides good depth at all three outfield positions, and he gives the Mets some late inning pinch hitting and double switch opportunities.

Pillar is also a solid hedge against injuries. On that front, teams are going from 60 games to 162. There is likely going to be more attrition than we see over the course of a typical season. We will likely see some more injuries, and we almost assuredly going to see players need to take off more days than they usually would.

Undoubtedly, Pillar has improved the Mets depth. He’s a player you can trust in the starting lineup for extended stretches, and he pushes Almora to the minors. He is a late inning defensive replacement for a team starting a first baseman in left field, and he is a good pinch hitting option against left-handed pitching. All told, while not awe inspiring, this is a move which makes sense and makes the Mets better.

 

 

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Pete Alonso’s Biggest Problem

When you look at the 2020 season, there were many who called it a sophomore slump for Pete Alonso, and we have seen some articles indicating the New York Mets need him to rebound. These articles are being written and the discussions are taking place because Alonso was not the same player in 2020 that he was in his record breaking Rookie of the Year season in 2019.

Despite that, Alonso was very good at the plate in 2020. Over the course of the season, he had a 118 wRC+ and a 123 OPS+. That rated him as a top 10 hitter at first base. Alonso was on a 162 game pace for 45 homers and 99 RBI. Those 45 homers would have been second only to himself for the single season mark in Mets history.

Looking at Baseball Savant, Alonso still had very good exit velocity numbers and an even better barrel rate. His whiff rate was poor, but that was counter-balanced by a good walk rate. Overall, these were promising numbers for a second year player who turned 26 years old.

Of course, the problem is that’s not how it is perceived. The reason is that all of Alonso’s numbers had regressed across the board. Honestly, that should lead people to question the reason why that happened. There are several possible reasons.

First and foremost, 2020 was just a bizarre season, and it left players in a strange place to get ready for the season and to get into rhythm. Alonso had served as the DH fairly often, which was a departure from his routine. There was more of a book on him than there was during his rookie year. Of course, while it was not often discussed with Alonso, the ball was no longer juiced. Well, it wasn’t as juiced as it was in 2019.

There’s also the possibility the 2019 season was Alonso’s career year. Really, it is no slight to say a season with a 5.2 WAR is a career year for a player. That’s an excellent season. Alonso can realistically fall short of ever repeating that while still being a very good 3-4 win player for the rest of his career.

We also shouldn’t discount Alonso being better. As we sit here, no one can really know which way his career is going to go. The only thing we do know is Alonso’s 2019 set the stage for Alonso having fairly unrealistic expectations. Expecting a player to hit 50+ homers a year is just an unfair and unrealistic expectation.

Whether people will admit it or not, that is the bar Alonso set for his rookie year. It is where people expect him to be because they really don’t know him to be anything other than that. Really, it is unfair to put him on that because he doesn’t have to be that in order to be an All-Star caliber player. He doesn’t have to be that to continue to emerge as the face of the Mets.

What Alonso needs to be is Alonso. Whatever that proves out to be will be a good player and an even better teammate and person.

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