Luis Guillorme Has Earned A Starting Job

Truth be told, the notion of Spring Training competitions have become antiquated. Teams pretty much know their rosters, and it really takes a miracle to get them to change their minds.

Proof of that is Luis Guillorme.

Entering Spring Training, there was presumably one starting job on the infield available. With Jeff McNeil‘s versatility, that job could’ve been at second or third.

For his part, Guillorme continues to make the case he should get that job. He’s had a terrific Spring where he’s made a number of phenomenal defensive plays. Yesterday, it was at third.

It should not be lost on anyone that was with Marcus Stroman on the mound. Like most of the Mets staff, Stroman generates a high number of ground balls necessitating defense like that in the lineup on an everyday basis.

It’s not just his glove, which has always been phenomenal. Guillorme has also been hitting. So far this Spring, Guillorme is hitting .357 over six games.

That’s building off a great 2020 where he had a 144 wRC+. This marked the third straight season Guillorme saw an increase in wRC+. Each one of those seasons was a small sample size, but 2021 should not.

Guillorme has done everything asked of him. He’s been great in the field, and he’s continued to improve at the plate. This is what you want to see from your players, and that should be rewarded.

More than rewarded, Guillorme continues to prove he’s the best option. There really is no real viable counter-argument why a ground ball pitching staff shouldn’t have their second best defender in the infield.

Guillorme has been great this Spring, and he’s continuously improving as a player. He continues to prove he deserves a starting job. More to the point, he’s establishing he’s better than all the other options.

Come Opening Day, Guillorme needs to be in the lineup.

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Mets Second Starter Should Be Taijuan Walker, Joey Lucchesi, Or Jordan Yamamoto

When teams assemble their pitching rotations, they typically assemble them in order of the talent of their top starters. Taking the New York Mets as an example, Jacob deGrom will be the Opening Day starter. After him, with Carlos Carrasco possibly delayed to start the season and Noah Syndergaard on the 60 day IL, it is fairly clear right now Marcus Stroman would be the second starter.

If you are taking the long term view of the season, Stroman should not be the second starter. Yes, he is the second best starter available, and if this was Game 2 of a postseason series, you would definitively be handing him the ball. However, in the regular season, that does not make any sense.

Looking at deGrom, since he has been the best pitcher in baseball, he has averaged 6.1 innings per start. If you look at the two seasons prior to 2020, he averaged 6.2 innings. That means whenever he takes the ball, the bullpen is getting a break. That is important when you consider the bullpen gets increasingly taxed and taxed with each start. To that, here is the average innings per start over the last four seasons for the Mets projected 2021 rotation options:

Now, the Mets seemed to be blessed with pitchers who tend to go deeper into games than most teams. Still, when fully healthy, this will be a rotation with two 5+ inning starters at the back end of their rotation. That means a bullpen who gets increasingly used after deGrom starts will be asked to provide a lot more without much of a break.

That was something which truly presented an issue for the Mets during deGrom’s first Cy Young campaign. Yes, he received little to no run support far too often that season. However, he also would see the bullpen blow a number of late leads for him. Part of the result is that the bullpen had been taxed heading into his starts. Rather than having the bullpen in the best possible shape to secure a win from their ace, they were on fumes hoping for deGrom to give them a break.

That is partially how you take a season for the ages and turn it into a 11-10 record for deGrom. That is both a reflection of how wins and losses for a pitcher are overrated. However, it is also an indication that something is going wrong that a pitcher who is setting records can’t buy a win.

If we were to look at the current Mets rotation, the bullpen is going to be well rested when deGrom takes the mound. Typically speaking, they will need to get about 6-8 outs in a game. That will leave them well rested. That is exactly the right time to line up the bullpen for a Walker start.

Typically speaking, Walker provides 5+ innings in a start. After deGrom, the bullpen will be well poised to provide that. Of course, after that, the Mets will have run through some of their bullpen. That is when you combat that by going to Syndergaard or Carrasco (if healthy) or Stroman. The Mets can then go to their 5+ inning fifth starter whether that is Luccesi, Peterson, or Yamamoto. Finally, the Mets could then go to Stroman who can eat some more innings before handing the ball back to deGrom.

By restructuring the rotation in that fashion, the Mets are positioning their bullpen to get breaks here and there. You are getting them regular work, and you are avoiding some fallow periods where they are not getting work because the top pitchers are eating up innings. Overall, the general concept is to stagger the pitchers by the innings they will reasonably provide instead of just lining them up without any concept on the impact it will have on the bullpen and staff as a whole.

Hopefully, that means a better rested Edwin Diaz. It could mean less of a need to rely on Seth Lugo for multiple innings when he returns. It could mean not needing to have the Triple-A to MLB shuttle for pitchers like Drew Smith. Instead, pitchers are put in a position where they get regular rest and work. That should help them succeed, and it should help prevent them from blowing games for deGrom.

 

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Not Televising deGrom And Greinke Plain Stupid

It doesn’t matter that it’s Spring Training. When you have a match-up like Jacob deGrom and Zack Greinke, you televise it. Period.

By not televising it, Baseball missed the opportunity to show two future Hall of Famers going head-to-head. Really, not televising this showed a basic misunderstanding of the sport.

One eternal truth in baseball is fans love high profile pitching match-ups. This was one. Mets fans would’ve loved to see deGrom dominate because they love deGrom.

Of course, we all missed a phenomenal match-up. In 3.0 scoreless innings, Greinke struck out four. And deGrom, well, he was deGrom:

Not only did deGrom strike out seven of the nine he faced, but he hit 102. 102!!! That’s insane even by his lofty standards. And yet, we all had to miss it.

That’s not all we missed. We also missed a phenomenal defensive play from Albert Almora.

Finally, there was also a big homer from Pete Alonso, who is having a monster Spring so far.

But hey, no one thought anyone would want to watch this game, so it’s just these clips here and there. But don’t worry, MLB is tackling the real issues to increase the popularity of the game like base sizes.

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Mickey Callaway Still Angels Pitching Coach

On February 1, 2021, Britany Ghiroli and Katie Strang of The Athletic wrote an article exposing how Mickey Callaway has sexually harassed women while a member of the Cleveland Indians, New York Mets, and Los Angeles Angels. In response to the revelations, each organization obviously condemned the actions, and they all promised an internal review of their organization.

When it came to the Angels, there was a question of what they should do with Callaway. It was obvious the Angels needed to cooperate with Major League Baseball in the investigation which was certainly forthcoming, but they would also have to make a decision on what to do with Callaway, who personally denied any wrongdoing.

Given the depth of the reporting, it is somewhat difficult to believe Callaway wasn’t fired on the spot. However, unlike Jared Porter, Callaway denied the allegations. As such, it was at least theoretically prudent to conduct an investigation before firing a man who would likely never get another job in baseball again.

Beyond that, there were some intimations the Callaway denial meant there needed to be an investigation prior to a final determination on his employment status. To wit, Bill Shakin and Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times surmised the investigation could be a way for the Angels to find a way to fire Callaway for “just cause” meaning they would not have to pay Callaway the remainder of the money owed on his contract.

There were other rumors and reports California employment law meant Callaway’s denial required an investigation before he could be terminated. There are conflicting reports about the veracity of that claim. At this point, that is besides the point.

The point is this investigation has been occurring for over a month now. Even with COVID19, there has been more than sufficient time to undertake an investigation. Really, at this point, MLB and the Angels are just dragging their feet at least as it pertains to Callaway. Simply put, it has been well past time for him to be fired.

 

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Way Too Soon To Worry About Carlos Carrasco

This is normally the time of the year we see the New York Mets experience some sort of injury which significantly impacts their ability to win the division. That is part of the reason why everyone was bracing themselves over the Carlos Carrasco news.

It appears Carrasco had a bit of a setback in his preparation for the season. He has been shut down for a few days due to a sore pitching elbow.

In days past, this was a call for despair. Jeff Wilpon would be playing doctor, and Mets fandom would be using gallows humor suggesting Ray Ramirez was fitting him for a walking boot. This year, at least with respect to Carrasco, we’re not at that point.

This is part of Carrasco’s preparation for the season. In fact, during Spring Training roughly a year ago, Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona said, “Every spring after his first outing, he gets mild elbow inflammation. I would call it more maintenance than anything.” (Mandy Bell, MLB.com).

If this is just what Carrasco deals with at this point in the Spring, then nothing is out of the normal. He deals with the soreness and gets back to pitching.

Last year, that led to excellent results. In 12 starts, he was 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and a 10.9 K/9. If that’s where this sore elbow is heading, the Mets are in phenomenal shape.

If not, and Carrasco is truly injured, well, the Mets are actually prepared for that. One of the losers of the fifth starter competition can slot in to take his space for a short period.

Certainly, the Mets would be in good shape having to start at least two of Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, or Jordan Yamamoto. Keep in mind these pitchers are only stemming the tide for when Noah Syndergaard can return.

In any event, the Mets are well positioned to withstand a severe Carrasco injury. That’s even if this is a severe injury. Early indications are he’s not really hurt.

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Matthew Allan Is Mets Best Prospect

The consensus of people who have done this much longer and better is Francisco Alvarez supplanted Ronny Mauricio as the Mets top prospect. The consensus seems to be they are the top two in the system.

That said, at least here, Matthew Allan should be considered the Mets top prospect. We’re seeing and hearing many of the reasons why this Spring Training.

Before Spring Training, Allan had been at the Mets alternate site at Brooklyn. That’s also where he pitched for the 2019 New York-Penn League Champions.

In that 2019 season, he made a combined six appearances (five starts) for the GCL Mets and Brooklyn. He was 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA, 1.452 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9, and a 12.2 K/9.

In the NYPL postseason, he was dominant pitching out of the bullpen. In two games, he pitched 5.0 innings retiring all 15 batters he faced. That included him pitching three innings and picking up the win in the clincher.

In those games, we saw the repertoire and poise which led the Mets to implement their draft strategy to sign him. As per MLB Pipeline, he had a mid to high 90s fastball which he combined with an excellent curve and a change that was a work in progress. He had the size and delivery which portends success as a starter.

As noted by Jacob Resnick of SNY above, Allan improved the change last year. It should come as no surprise that came after getting to work with Jacob deGrom during part of the COVID shutdown last year. In that time, he got to learn from deGrom much in the same way deGrom once got to learn from Johan Santana.

This past offseason, Allan again went to Stetson University to work with deGrom and fellow Stetson alum catcher Patrick Mazeika.

Allan had the opportunity to speak to and learn from the best pitcher in the game. As noted, it helped lead to an improved change. It may also help him in terms of the mental side of the game and preparation. Really with deGrom encouraging him to wear him out with questions, Allan had a real opportunity to hone his craft.

That continued in Spring Training when Allan got to work not only with deGrom but also Marcus Stroman.

With Stroman, Allan discussed grips as well as the mental side of the game. Many forget Stroman is a real student of the game, and he’s someone who works harder than anyone to find ways to improve and get batters out. As noted by Allan, Stroman was genuine in helping him improve as a pitcher.

That’s a huge reason why Allan should be considered the Mets best prospect. Yes, he certainly has the natural talent and pure stuff to earn that consideration. However, it’s more than that.

Allan, himself, is working hard and striving to improve. He’s in a very fortunate situation where he has had the opportunity and will continue to have the opportunity to get mentored by deGrom and Stroman.

Taking everything into account, it’s not just Allan’s change which will make considerable strides. He should also in every aspect of his game. Seeing how he and others are investing in him, he has real top of the rotation potential, and seeing his progress that may come far sooner than originally anticipated.

Overall, it’s very fair to consider Alvarez and Mauricio as the Mets best prospects. Still, seeing Allan’s improvement, maturity, and natural talent, he should probably be considered a step ahead thereby making him the Mets best prospect.

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Mets Need To Play Luis Guillorme Everyday

Yet again, Luis Guillorme made a terrific defensive play. It’s what he does, and aside from possibly Francisco Lindor, he plays defense far better than anyone on the New York Mets.

When you see plays like this and all the plays Guillorme can make, there should be no doubt about playing him everyday. Not only is Guillorme a real asset with his defense, he’s also a difference maker.

At least defensively, Guillorme and Lindor would combine to be one of, if not the best middle infields in all of baseball. That would be of vital importance to a Mets pitching staff who generates a large number of ground balls.

On that front, it’s important to note Pete Alonso is a bad first baseman. His -7 DRS since his MLB debut is the second worst. His -9 OAA is one of the worst too. Having Guillorme at second would help offset that.

He’d do that much better than Jeff McNeil. McNeil is good at second with a 1 DRS. He’s just not on Guillorme’s par. That’s not a slight to McNeil in the least, but rather, an acknowledgment of just how good Guillorme is defensively.

Keep in mind, Guillorme is not just a glove. He can hit too.

No, Guillorme is not a 30 home run hitter. He’s not even half that. Still, in big moments, he can hit one out:

Guillorme has seen his wRC+ increase in each one of his MLB seasons. Part of the reason is he’s been steadily increasing. He projects to be a near league average. That’s more than alright for an eighth place hitter with his glove.

That goes double when the Mets are already sacrificing defense at first, third, left, and center. A player in just for defense makes more than enough sense for a team shoe-horning in bats and has a ground ball staff.

All told, Guillorme is an excellent defender who can hit. He’s going to offset Alonso’s defense on the right side while creating a dynamic double play duo with Lindor.

All told, Guillorme is exactly what the Mets need at second, and he’s a better all strong player than he gets credit. As such, he should be put in the Opening Day lineup and on each of the ensuing games.

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Mets Third Base Dilemma

Simply put, third base was the biggest hole the New York Mets had this offseason, and they did nothing to address it. Now, they’re scrambling.

The incumbent, J.D. Davis, is the worst defensive player in baseball. Not hyperbole, his DRS is literally the worst since joining the Mets.

With the Mets not improving, they’re starting to sell he’s improved there. They even point to Francisco Lindor working with him. There are two problems to this.

First, it’s useless talking point we hear every Spring akin to “best shape of their life.” Second, Davis is still quite bad in the videos promoting his defense.

Really, he can’t play the position, and the Mets need to stop trying to make it work. The problem is if not Davis, then who?

Yes, the answer is literally anyone else on the team would be better, but that’s also not a good answer. One early talking point is the idea of a Davis platoon with the left-handed hitting Jonathan Villar.

Villar, too, is a bad defender. Over the last two years, he has a -12 DRS in the middle of the infield. The counter-argument is third may be an easier position to play and a better fit for him.

However, that point ignores the disaster Jose Reyes was at third. Players in defensive decline just don’t automatically stem the tide and thrive at third. That’s an important consideration for a player in Villar who hasn’t played there since 2016. In that year, he played 346.2 innings there and had a -5 DRS.

So, looking at it, we return to Jeff McNeil, a player who has actually been the Opening Day starter there the last two seasons. He also has a career 5 DRS and 3 OAA there in his career.

Yes, he had a tough stretch there last year, and he had a tough Spring Training game. Even with that, he’s still been FAR SUPERIOR than the players who are under consideration for third. If you couple that with the ability to put Luis Guillorme and his Gold Glove caliber defense at second, it’s hard to argue there’s a better option.

The only problem is the Mets seem to be reluctant to both put McNeil at third and to play Guillorme everyday. It’s a bizarre thought process with zero sound reasoning given the construction of this roster.

Whatever the case, this is how the Mets built their team. It’s imperative they put their best players on the field in the best position to succeed and help the pitching staff who induces a lot of grounders.

Short of the Mets making that trade for a third baseman, they’re stuck trying to figure out a dilemma they failed to address this offseason. Rather than push sunk costs, lost cases, and poor thought processes, they need to do what helps them win in 2021.

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Reaction To Jeff McNeil Rough Day at Third

In his first Spring Training start at third base, Jeff McNeil struggled. He had three errors – a missed catch, a missed grounder, and a bad throw.

The complete overreaction to this should be a really big yawn.

As reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets may not be quite reacting that way. In fact, Puma reports J.D. Davis and Jonathan Villar will get the bulk of playing time at third.

If true, it’s a bad plan. Davis is the worst third baseman in the game. Villar is a poor defender who last played third in 2016. Looking at it, McNeil is the Mets best defensive third baseman with a 5 DRS.

McNeil at third would also open up more playing time for Luis Guillorme. If nothing else, Guillorme is a very good defender. He’s also been making significant strides offensively.

Guillorme should ideally start at second where he is Gold Glove caliber. That would move McNeil to third. Notably, Luis Rojas said McNeil has “looked well at third base in the past.” He will again if given the opportunity.

Overall, Guillorme at second with McNeil at third remains the Mets best possible infield. As such, the team should not overreact to one poor day.

The Mets need to be better than that. They need to roll their eyes and do what’s right for the team. Whatever they decide, they need to move forward with their best team and lineup.

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Theo Epstein Should Have No Place In Baseball

One day, Cooperstown is going to come calling for Theo Epstein. After all, he was the leader for two franchises who broke curses.

Epstein was the GM for the 2004 Boston Red Sox who won a World Series for the first time in 86 years. Winning with the Red Sox apparently wasn’t challenging enough for him.

No, Epstein took over as the President of Baseball Operations for the Chicago Cubs. Whereas with the Red Sox he fortified an already great roster, he built the Cubs from the bottom up to lead them to their first World Series title in 108 years.

Now, that he’s stepped aside, everyone wants him in another important role. As jobs open up, more and more people will push for him.

Currently, he’s a consultant for Major League Baseball. There’s a push for many to name him the next commissioner. There was a push for the Mets to hire him, and there was an article from Larry Stone of the Seattle Times about how the Seattle Mariners need to hire Epstein in the wake of the Kevin Mather fallout.

There’s a certain irony in the push for anyone to hire Epstein right now, as he is emblematic of many of the problems baseball currently faces.

In terms of the Mariners, Mather “re-signed” partially as a result of his admitting to service time manipulation of Jarred Kelenic and other prospects. In some ways, Epstein is really the worst hire.

With the Cubs, Epstein dealt with the same issues with Kris Bryant. Like the Mariners intended to do with Kelenic, the team didn’t call up Bryant until they could gain another year of control.

That led to Bryant filing a grievance, which he eventually lost. He also rejected numerous attempts to sign a contract extension with the team.

In terms of the Mets, they’re still dealing with the fallout of the Mickey Callaway and Jared Porter harassment claims. Notably, the Porter harassment didn’t occur when he was with the Mets. Rather, it happened when he was with the Cubs.

As we learned, the Cubs first advised the victim to not go further with the complaint. Instead, they advised her to try to leverage her position. On multiple occasions, they followed up to ensure there would be no embarrassing law suit.

This was somewhat emblematic of how little regard the Cubs held women. In addition to Porter, the Cubs traded for Aroldis Chapman, and they tendered Addison Russell a contract.

Seeing what happened under his leadership, it’s clear he has no place in baseball right now. He’s not the guy to clean up the problems. Rather, he’s the guy who helped create, and at a minimum, led organizations who actively disregarded and cover-up problems.

Unless we get an investigation and answers to very pointed questions, Epstein should not return to any MLB front office in any role. He’s created and perpetuated problems.

There may come a time for his return to baseball, but that time has not yet arrived. It can’t until he had

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