Andrew Marchand of the New York Post broke the news MLB Network has not renewed Ken Rosenthal’s contract. Rosenthal, himself, confirmed the story.
Can confirm MLB Network has decided not to bring me back. I’m grateful for the more than 12 years I spent there, and my enduring friendships with on-air personalities, producers and staff. I always strove to maintain my journalistic integrity, and my work reflects that. 1/2
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 4, 2022
It was more than just renewing his contract. Rosenthal saw his airtime and duties significantly dwindle after he was critical of Commissioner Rob Manfred’s handling of the COVID19 pandemic.
That’s how thin-skinned Manfred is. He got rid of perhaps the highest profiled reporter in the sport because he was critical of him. Keep in mind, it’s probably the one time it’s happened with Rosenthal. Like Glass Joe, Manfred couldn’t take one punch.
It didn’t matter to Manfred it exposed MLB Network as state run media. It also didn’t matter no one was going to side with him. What mattered was there was a slight, and he was going to get his revenge.
Really, this can’t bode well for the MLB lockout.
Through the years, the players have publicly questioned Manfred and MLB. Just the other day, Max Scherzer spoke out about the lockout with Jorge Castillo of the LA Times.
Scherzer took aim and unequivocally put the integrity of the game into the debate. He drew clear lines on how the players are fighting for it, and MLB is fighting to suppress player salaries.
Scherzer is far from alone in these sentiments. Therein lies the problem. Manfred sees and hears all of this, and we know he will go out for blood even when it’s not in his and the sport’s best interests.
Everything said by the players and the MLBPA will likely force Manfred to dig his heels in further. He will seek a way to have his revenge. In all likelihood, he will drag it out as long as he can to try to declare complete victory.
That’s exactly what he did with Rosenthal. He waited over a year, and after punishing him, he got rid of him for one comment. Considering the history with MLB and the MLBPA, things can be so much worse with the lockout.
Or, maybe, it isn’t. Really, who cares?
If you want to watch it as part of your Christmas tradition? Great. Snuggle up next to the fire with some cocoa and cookies and watch some heartwarming scenes:
If not, go watch The Christmas Story. It’ll be one for a solid straight 24 hours. Surely, Ralphie’s work with the gun is a lot less gory.
Or watch something else entirely. Something more heart warming and Christmasy.
Whatever the case, if someone wants to argue Die Hard is a Christmas movie, just disagree with them. The same for the inverse. It’s just better than the other arguments you could be having now.
Heading into the 2020 season, Jacob deGrom was definitively the best pitcher on the planet. He was coming off back-to-back Cy Young awards, and he was doing things only Hall of Fame pitchers do. Certainly, the Hall of Fame was on deGrom’s mind as he told us all he wanted to be an inner circle Hall of Famer.
Certainly, deGrom was well on his way to carving a path to the Hall of Fame. After all, he was fifth all-time in ERA+. He was bettering Tom Seaver‘s New York Mets records. He was otherworldly great. Think Pedro Martinez in 1999 and 2000.
Then, the pandemic struck. The 2020 season was shortened, and deGrom would suffer an injury which would just about end his chances of winning a third straight Cy Young. deGrom would being the 2021 season pitching better than he ever has, which is saying something. However, again injury would strike limiting deGrom to just 15 starts. Despite the injury, he still finished in the top 10 in the Cy Young voting.
However, for deGrom, it isn’t about Cy Youngs. Well, it is in part, but that is just part of the larger picture. Really, when it comes to deGrom’s career, it is about two things: (1) World Series rings; and (2) the Baseball Hall of Fame.
As of this moment, he has a 43.4 WAR with a 40.8 WAR7 and a 42.1 JAWS. The average Hall of Fame pitcher has a 73.0 WAR, 49.8 WAR, and a 61.4 JAWS. That puts the 33 year old deGrom in an interesting position.
Right now, he is 39.6 WAR behind the average Hall of Fame pitcher. For WAR7, he is only 6.4 behind the average Hall of Famer. He is 19.7 behind the average Hall of Famer in terms of JAWS. In some ways, that is actually achievable for deGrom.
Consider from 2018-2019, deGrom AVERAGED an 8.9 WAR (pitching only). If he puts together another two year stretch like that, and as we saw last year, he can, deGrom would have a 61.2 WAR. That puts him within an ear shot of the 73.0 mark. More than that, his peak numbers will be through the roof. He will have a 51.7 WAR7, which would be a giant step above the current standard. His JAWS would then be 56.5, which would be a hair behind the standard.
Keep in mind, narrative matters. As we see with players like Sandy Koufax having an absolutely dominant peak at a higher level than anyone else matters. That would certainly describe deGrom if he can put 2-3 great seasons under his belt.
On that front, this could be where Max Scherzer helps him. Scherzer was a pitcher who did not look like a Hall of Famer until he turned 28. From that point forward, he put together a stretch of nine consecutive Cy Young and Hall of Fame caliber seasons. If there is anyone who knows what a pitcher needs to do from their mid-30s to stay dominant towards their 40s, it is Scherzer.
With deGrom having a true peer in Scherzer in the rotation, not only will deGrom have a better opportunity to win a World Series, but he will also increase his Hall of Fame chances. Whenever the lockout ends, deGrom’s path towards the Hall of Fame and a World Series title will begin anew.
To the surprise of no one, Buck Showalter aced his introductory press conference. If you’re a New York Mets fan, you heard everything you wanted to hear.
Two of the things you heard him speak about were the ability to play in New York and the players needed to win here. Here are two relevant quotes:
- “When you get it right, and there’s a lot of people living and dying what you do every day, so there is an accountability responsibility to it and it’s not for everybody. We’re going to try to find out who it’s for, who is in and who ain’t.”
- “I think one of the mistakes people make is when they come into a situation and think everything there isn’t good and needs to be changed.”
When reading these two quotes, you can’t help but think about Michael Conforto.
Conforto is a free agent after spending seven years with the Mets. In his time, he’s at least been a top 20 position player in team history. If he stayed, he would rewrite much of the Mets record books.
With him, we’ve seen a player who can play in and handle New York. More than that, he has emerged as a true leader, and he’s been able to handle the most difficult of circumstances.
When things have been good, so has Conforto. We know he can play in the big games and deliver.
While he most likely wasn’t referring to Conforto in any way, shape, or form, Showalter’s words endorsed a Conforto return. Conforto is able to handle New York, and as Showalter said, the Mets shouldn’t be making the mistake of changing for changing sake.
Now, this is all well and good, but realistically speaking Conforto is as good as gone. That happened when the Mets signed Mark Canha and Starling Marte.
That said, if there’s an avenue to bring back Conforto, the Mets should do it. The Mets need players who can handle the gauntlet of New York, and he’s one of those players. In many ways, he’s a player Showalter proverbially wants.
While Buck Showalter may not have been the right fit for the New York Mets job, this job was the perfect fit for him. This is a job where Showalter can cement his legacy, and depending on how everything goes, it’s possible he has a shot at the Hall of Fame.
As we have seen with the media coverage, Showalter has been well respected in the game. That goes to every media person, and we have seen former players Zack Britton, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Mark Teixeira speak highly of him. There are reasons why that is the case.
Showalter has his strengths. He is a good communicator. He develops players. He knows this game inside and out. No, he doesn’t know analytics well, and he has been adverse to them, but he’s a lifer who knows the game.
The biggest knock on Showalter is teams have won after he has left. The 1996 Yankees. The 2001 Diamondbacks. Both World Series championships came after Showalter has been fired. As we saw with the Britton issue in the ALDS, there are a number of reasons why Showalter hasn’t won a ring..
However, the Mets now present that opportunity. He has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer atop the rotation, that’s even better than Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling (who Showalter didn’t win with). As we have seen before the lockout, Steve Cohen is going to do everything he can to win the 2022 World Series. He is spending like we haven’t seen a team spend in ages, perhaps ever.
This will be a Mets team built to win in the postseason. There is the vaunted top of the rotation. Francisco Lindor in year two. Brandon Nimmo moving to right field where he will thrive along Starling Marte. Pete Alonso hitting tape measure shots. The pieces are there, and there will be more to come. The challenge for Showalter will be to let his best players win instead of going to Jack McDowell or Ubaldo Jimenez.
If he is now truly receptive to analytics for the first time in his career, wonderful things can and will happen. His reward will be completely changing the narrative on his career. Now, Showalter will be the manager who builds winners and can take them over the top.
He will then have at least three Manager of the Year awards. By winning a World Series, he would join Bobby Cox, Jim Leyland, and Tony La Russa as the only managers to win three awards and a World Series. Leyland is the only one not in the Hall of Fame. If Showalter were to win two World Series, he would join Sparky Anderson, Tommy Lasorda, Joe Torre, and La Russa as the only managers to win multiple Manager of the Year awards and multiple World Series.
The Mets will put Showalter in a position to win those World Series titles. That will come in the form of both players and with information. Everything will be there for Showalter. If he is willing to grow as a manager and accept the more collaborative role, he will get that elusive ring, and quite possibly, he will be enshrined in Cooperstown.
One of the more interesting rumors which emerged during Buck Showalter‘s interview process was he’d be willing to have Carlos Beltran as his bench coach. It was an odd rumor.
When looking at a bench coach, you have someone responsible for running QC during a game. They’re making sure batters bat in order, keeping tabs on who is available, and chatting strategy with the manager.
The entirety of Beltran’s coaching experience is 76 days as the Mets manager. In that time, he had zero team meetings and managed zero games. Put another way, he has zero experience.
Putting him in a position to be Showalter’s right-hand man makes little sense. He’s ill equipped. Moreover, there’s no pre-existing relationship where they’re able to have a synergistic relationship.
It would also be bizarre to have Beltrán in place as a manager in training. Showalter wasn’t just hired to win in 2022. He was hired to be in place and win for as many seasons as he’s capable of doing the job.
The Mets hired the then 62 year old Terry Collins in 2011. He would manage seven more years with the Mets.
Tony La Russa managed the St. Louis Cardinals until he was 66 years old. After being inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame, he returned to the Chicago White Sox in 2021 as a 76 year old.
Showalter is 65. Looking at Collins and La Russa, he has as many years as he can do the job. With Showalter taking the job, we can presume he’s in for the long haul.
That’s just the thing. Showalter wants to win. He’s been in this game as a manager for 20 years. He knows people, and more importantly, he knows who he wants for different roles.
Maybe he likes Beltrán. It would make sense with Beltran being a noted leader and hard worker who is very intelligent. However, no one knows if Beltrán can coach.
Can he be a hitting coach? Can he be an outfield coach? Does he know how to interpret, apply, and communicate analytics?
No one knows, not even Beltrán. That’s why putting him on a staff makes little to no sense. Grooming an inexperienced coach for a role he may never be suited doesn’t make much sense.
Unfortunately, bringing Beltran back doesn’t make much sense. If Beltran does indeed want to come back and eventually manage, he will have to do the work and go to the minors much like Edgardo Alfonzo did.
When and if Beltran does that, then maybe Showalter can and should add him to a Major League coaching staff. Until that point, it just doesn’t make any sense.
Todd Zeile covered the New York Mets as an analyst throughout the 2021 season. That left him eight months to say something about Marcus Stroman.
However, now that Stroman is gone Zeile calls him one of the most divisive players in the Mets clubhouse last year. He intimated things in the clubhouse are better just because Stroman is a Chicago Cub.
Mind you, he didn’t say this when Luis Rojas was taking the fall for the purported clubhouse issues. Notably, he didn’t rebut Rojas when the former manager lauded Stroman for being a great teammate.
He didn’t say anything when there were reports of the Mets having a special chemistry. He was silent on Stroman when the narrative emerged the Mets didn’t do more at the trade deadline because they didn’t want to infringe on the clubhouse chemistry.
Zeile also was silent on Stroman when the clubhouse chemistry issue emerged with Javier Báez‘s thumbs down to the fans. There was a perfect opportunity to address team chemistry and issues. Zeile said nothing.
Time and again, Zeile was silent on Stroman’s impact in the Mets clubhouse. However, now with Buck Showalter being hired and Stroman a Cub, he is telling everyone Stroman is divisive.
Zeile sat on this information until the offseason. He sat on it during the many times the Mets clubhouse chemistry was at issue (good or bad). Now, that he never has to face Stroman, he’s more than ready to denigrate him.
This is completely unprofessional, and it highlights Zeile has little to no credibility. He had pertinent information to share in his role as analyst, and he didn’t disclose it.
Zeile didn’t have the courage to say anything while Stroman was a Met. He didn’t have the courage to say anything while the possibility of Stroman returning existed. This is as callow as it gets.
With these comments, Zeile lost credibility. It leaves you wondering what other information is he failing to disclose just to make his life easier. What is he not telling us so he can avoid an awkward conversation with a player?
Mets fans deserve better than this. The Mets players do as well.
Since Steve Cohen purchased the New York Mets, the organization has made it a priority to build a great analytical organization. It was an important part of their defense becoming leaps and bounds better in 2021, and its positive impact could be seen elsewhere.
How the organization goes from that to hiring Buck Showalter makes little to no sense.
Sure, he’ll talk a good game, and undoubtedly, he will say he will use the analytics and collaborate, but that runs counter to who he is. Really, he was the same guy in 2016 pitching Ubaldo Jimenez (and not Zack Britton) as he was in 1995 pitching Jack McDowell.
He overly says he tracked against shifting. He said he uses it to confirm what he’s thinking. He says it overlooks the magical unseen tools. He even tries to sound smart saying how analytics disagree with themselves.
Really, it’s just another way to say I’m going to manage my way. Honestly, when you hire Showalter, that’s apparently all you want.
The Mets didn’t want a Joe Espada or Matt Quatraro. These are managers who could’ve taken the Mets to another level and taught them all the things they don’t know.
They didn’t push for Bruce Bochy. Bochy is a manager who actually won something, and he’s gotten that little extra from his teams. Remember, Showalter has a .506 winning percentage and win exactly zero LCS games.
However, Showalter is seen as a great hire because the media loves his press conferences. They also love his eschewing analytics. His having won nothing is of little consequence.
Overall, Showalter was the popular choice. That doesn’t make him the right one. That’s because he wasn’t. Really, the Mets hired someone who runs contrary to what they were purportedly trying to do when they revamped their analytics department.
In reality, this is a step backwards. Hopefully, this Mets roster will be so good that it won’t matter . . . much like the 2001 Diamondbacks team who won the year after Showalter was fired.
Famously starting with Billy Beane, the war on analytics on baseball has long been fought. Really, it started before him, and it’s a war which continues to this day.
Back in the 1970s, it was Earl Weaver looking for a bloop and a blast. In the 1980s, it was Davey Johnson pouring over computer reports to find a statistical advantage. There’s more, and yes, this is an oversimplification.
Ultimately, analytics won. We see the Tampa Bay Rays have a competitive advantage with their use of analytics despite a low payroll. The Los Angeles Dodgers meld spending power with analytics to gain a stranglehold on the NL West and to some extent the National League.
When Steve Cohen took over the New York Mets, his first and main focus has been analytics. After using it to significantly improve the Mets defense, it’s being expanded to the minor leagues. In many ways, this is the tip of the iceberg.
Again, despite the whining of John Smoltz and Harold Reynolds, analytics won. That’s going to be the case in other sports.
We saw it with the NFL. The Los Angeles Chargers lost a game in OT to the Kansas City Chiefs. One of the purported reasons why is the Chargers opted not to kick a field goal on three separate occasions while subsequently failing to convert on fourth down. The ex-players had a field day.
The #chargers Analytics guy leaving SOFI as Coach Staley heads to the podium to explain 4th & goal x 2 = 0pts #TNFonFOX pic.twitter.com/VlRhnn9WZm
— Carl Banks (@CarlBanksGIII) December 17, 2021
Turns out analytics suck!
— mark schlereth (@markschlereth) December 17, 2021
If you break it down, the Chargers made the correct choice. With analytics, we see going for fourth down is the better choice.
Like with baseball, the criticism is grossly misplaced. The issue isn’t the decision itself, but rather, the execution. Much like it’s the reliever and match-up chosen, it’s the play call and execution.
However, the naysayers only choose to focus on one part of the process. It’s why they’re losing the battle. People increasingly understand the full process, and overall, the numbers and data prove out the process on the field.
This is why teams go for it more. This is why analytics eventually win in all sports. It did in baseball. With teams going for it more, and with all Bill Belichick did, we see it is in football.
For that matter, it is in hockey and basketball too. Just this past year, we saw it as a big reason why Adam Fox won the Norris Trophy.
Overall, analytics always win. They win because it’s the start way to do things. They win because it works.
Former players whining days gone by continue to miss the point. Instead of the woe is me, their focus can still be on the things where everyone agrees. It’s not the option to go for it, but rather, the play call.
The sooner these former players buy in, the better. We’ll see a more informed fan base. We’ll also see fans hearing from people who actually like to see the sport. Ultimately, more than anything, that will help grow sports.
This year, there are three seminal Hall of Fame cases on their tenth year on the ballot. By all accounts, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa won’t be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.
Now, Bonds and Clemens have complicated their Hall of Fame cases more than anyone. Each have had their respective criminal cases related to the steroids, and each have had significant off the field issues with Bonds’ abusive behavior and Clemens’ inappropriate relationships.
Really, the cases against Bonds and Clemens run much deeper than steroids. To that point, you can understand their failure to receive the needed vote.
That’s not really the case with Sosa. He denied using PEDs at the congressional hearing even though it was revealed he tested positive during the survey testing. To a certain extent, there was the corked bat incident.
Beyond that, Sosa was the first man to hit 60 homers in consecutive seasons. He helped transform the Chicago Cubs into contenders. His running to right field with an American flag post 9/11 still gives many goosebumps.
All told, Sosa had a 58.6 WAR, and he hit 609 homers. Before delving into whether those are Hall of Fame worthy numbers, just keep it in consideration.
Right now, according to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, David Ortiz is faring significantly better than Sosa in the voting. Really, there is no justification for this.
The steroids case against Sosa is the same against Ortiz as both tested positive in the survey testing. Again, this is the same test results which have kept Sosa out of the Hall of Fame.
Ortiz is a known hot head. He couldn’t handle teams returning the favor for celebrations, and he’s thrown bats at umpires. Considering Mike Piazza and the 2000 World Series, throwing bats at people is something else Ortiz has in common with Clemens.
Through it all, he had a 55.3 WAR and 541 homers. That puts him a significant step behind Sosa. Again, he’s doing better in voting than Sosa.
He’s also well ahead of Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod was clearly the far superior player, but he was suspended for PEDs. Notably, A-Rod and Ortiz used the same MLB banned trainer.
Interestingly enough, while that link isn’t enough to tinge Ortiz, it was enough to keep Gary Sheffield out of the Hall of Fame. According to Sheffield, he was duped by Bonds and BALCO.
This has kept Sheffield out of the Hall of Fame. He has a 60.5 WAR with 509 homers.
Overall, in terms of performance on the field, Bonds, Clemens, Rodriguez, Sheffield, and Sosa had far superior careers than Ortiz. Despite that, Ortiz testing positive and working with MLB banned trainers has had zero impact on his Hall of Fame case like it did with the others.
For reasons that confound reason, nothing sticks to Ortiz. He’s allowed to cheat and throw bats at people. He’s allowed to use banned trainers. While all of these things in the singular have proven fatal to others Hall of Fame chances, it appears it won’t fit Ortiz.
Because of this and many more reasons, if he’s elected into the Baseball Hall of Fame, it would be a complete and utter farce.