If you want to know the importance of what the Max Scherzer signing with the New York Mets is, look to the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s really the last time we saw this.
The Diamondbacks had added Curt Schilling at the 2000 trade deadline, but that team couldn’t stay in the race. That wouldn’t be an issue the following season.
Schilling combined with Randy Johnson to be one of the most lethal, if not the most lethal co-aces atop a rotation. The result was a 92 win season.
It’s difficult to argue they didn’t do it themselves. Schilling and Johnson both pitched over 249 innings and had an ERA under 3.00. The rest of the rotation struggled, and the bullpen wasn’t great aside from Byung-Hun Kim and Bret Prinz.
Offensively, that was one of the worst teams you could imagine for a World Series winner. Consider, Luis Gonzalez had a phenomenal year hitting 57 homers, and they still only had a team 97 wRC+.
That’s what having two of the best pitchers in all of baseball means. Their innings and greatness masks so much. Case-in-point, that team was 52-18 when Schilling and Johnson pitched, and they were 40-52 when they didn’t.
It was a feat replicated in the postseason. The Diamondbacks were 9-2 when they pitched, and they were 2-4 when they didn’t.
Good pitching beats good hitting. Great pitching wins World Series nearly single-handedly. That was the case in 2001, and it may be the case again in 2022.
With all due respect to Schilling and Johnson, if Jacob deGrom is healthy, deGrom and Scherzer are a more formidable duo.
Consider this. Schilling’s best ERA+ was 159, and his best FIP was 2.40. deGrom has bested that ERA+ three times and the FIP twice. Scherzer had a better ERA+ three times.
Johnson was on a different level than Schilling with a career best 197 ERA+ and 2.04 FIP. deGrom bettered than ERA+ and FIP once, and it would’ve been twice if he was healthy in 2021.
In addition to deGrom and Scherzer being the better duo, the 2022 Mets promise to be a better roster. This team is not done with their offseason, and they still have players like Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo.
With deGrom and Scherzer, this Mets team is already a World Series contender. We need look no further than the 2001 Diamondbacks as proof of that. How great they will be will be determined by the rest of this offseason.
This is Max Scherzer‘s last big time free agent contract. He’s a 37 year old pitcher, and this contract may effectively carry him into retirement.
This is the place where he’s getting his last opportunity to chase another ring. It’s where his children continue to grow up and go to school. It may wind up where he spends the rest of his life.
He’s also a union leader. At a time when there’s an impending lock out, he probably feels responsibility to take the best offer over what’s best for him. That could conflict with what he wants for his family and his pursuit of further career accomplishments.
Keep in mind, there’s also the Boras factor. He’s going to get every single last cent, incentive, and perk he can get out of a team. That’s his job, and he’s better and more aggressive at it than most.
One rival exec last night saw nothing unusual in delay, saying, “All the Boras side items (in a contract)” take time. Also difficult to imagine Scherzer, a union leader, turning down perceived highest offer. But as Mets learned with Bauer, not over until agreement is reached. https://t.co/Sj5CYuB5Kf
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 29, 2021
This isn’t a story about the Mets being used as leverage. They’re not being used at all. Boras doesn’t really operate that way. He goes and gets the best deal for his clients. Period.
The thing is you can push a 25 year old Alex Rodriguez to the Texas Rangers. Doing that with a 37 year old father of two who spent seven years hating the Mets is an entirely different story all together.
This isn’t Trevor Bauer again. That was a megalomaniac (and sociopath) basking and creating drama.
Scherzer is an adult and an intense competitor. He wants to win, and he wants to raise a family. In reality, he is looking for the best situation while juggling his many responsibilities and masters.
Scherzer is allowed to take his time on a life altering and impacting decision. At the end of the day, as Mets fans, we should just appreciate how serious this franchise is about not just signing him but also looking to compete in 2022.
Free agency is difficult. Teams need to look not just at track records but also trajectory. Perhaps, the perfect embodiment of this is Kevin Gausman.
Before signing with the San Francisco Giants, Gausman made 154 starts with 37 relief appearances. He was 47-63 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.344 WHIP, and an 8.3 K/9.
Really, he was a below average pitcher. That was reflected in his 99 ERA+ and 4.13 FIP. It’s also reflected in his being designated for assignment by the Atlanta Braves in 2019.
To their credit, the Giants saw something in Gausman. To some extent, it was seeing his FIP and BABIP indicated he pitched better than his stats. It was also getting him to alter his pitch usage and sequencing. Gausman threw fewer fastballs and more splitters.
In the COVID shortened 2020, Gausman posted a 118 ERA+ and a 3.09 FIP. Up until that point of his career, it was his best FIP and second best ERA+ (minimum 60 innings). Much of that was driven by his strikeout rates skyrocketing from his 8.3 K/9 career mark to 11.9.
The problem was that was a shortened season. No one knew if he could do it for a full season. With that, the qualifying offer made sense for both sides.
Gausman responded with a phenomenal Cy Young caliber season. He was a real ace for a Giants team which won 107 games. In 33 starts, he was 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.042 WHIP, and a 10.6 K/9.
By nearly every measure, this was a career year for the 30 year old hurler. It was his career best in wins, ERA, starts, innings, strikeouts, ERA+, FIP, WHIP, H/9, HR/9, and WAR.
That’s not to say there weren’t some red flags. Gausman’s .275 BABIP and 78.4 LOB% suggests regression. Gausman was also a far better pitcher in the first half.
In the first half, Gausman had a 1.73 ERA while averaging 6.1 innings per start. In the second half, he had a 4.42 ERA while averaging 5.0 innings per start.
Now, considering no one pitched all that much in 2020, there was some drop off expected for all pitchers. After all, there was bound to be fatigue with everyone. That was most likely the cause with Gausman even though he is typically a second half pitcher.
So, here’s the issue. Gausman is turning 31, and he’s had exactly one half of a season pitching like an ace. Essentially, hex was Brodie Van Wagenen miscast Zack Wheeler to be.
Notably, Wheeler was much more than that. Gausman hasn’t been.
There’s other issues as well. The Giants are ahead of most teams on the analytical front. They also had Buster Posey behind the plate. Really, no MLB team can match that. That may go double for a team like the New York Mets.
Essentially, if you’re a team in on Gausman, you are boasting you can help him repeat some of his luck while matching the Giants front office and analytics department. You believe you can make that first half last a full season.
Look, it’s certainly possible. However, that depends on the team. The possibility turns into impossibility depending on the ultimate destination.
Overall, any team interested in Gausman needs to tread extremely carefully. This is the ultimate boom or bust singing. With pitchers like Max Scherzer and Marcus Stroman still available, it’s difficult to ascertain why a team would take this risk.
Sometimes, when a player comes to mind, we tend to think of the one breakout year and not the collective body of work. Mark Canha is one of those players.
In 2019, Canha was terrific. He hit .273/.396/.517 with 16 doubles, three triples, 26 homers, and 58 RBI. He had a 146 OPS+ and a 4.1 WAR.
Defensively, Canha was good posting a 2 OAA in left and right. This was as complete and under appreciated and ballplayer as they come.
Canha was this player in 2019 and 2019 only. In all the other years of his career, he’s fallen far short of the OPS+ and WAR numbers. The more we see him, the more we see 2019 as his outlier year.
In many ways, that’s a problem. Remember, 2019 was the last year things were normal, and we tend to remember it more. Moreover, that year featured a juiced ball, and Canha with his career best .244 ISO benefitted.
Since that 2019 season, Canha hasn’t been the same player. He’s really been hurt by the lack the the juiced ball and aging.
Since 2019, when Canha was 30, he’s hit .235/.366/.393. He was a 115 OPS+ and 4.0 WAR player over that 200 game stretch. That’s not the same player.
That’s shown more through the metrics. His exit velocities dropped two straight years. The same goes for his barrels and hard hit rates. Put another way, this is a player making far less quality contact, and he’s at an age where these stats don’t typically improve.
Canha received a two year $26.5 million deal. That’s starter money. More to the point, Canha isn’t signing this early to sit on the bench.
The Mets could’ve and should’ve done better than Canha. Remember, he’s not the player he was in 2019, and he’s been regressing as he nears his mid 30s. Overall, this wasn’t a great move.
There’s a gag on the show Archer wherein Archer is essentially asked what he can’t understand, and the answer is, “Core concept.” Right now, this applies to the New York Mets and free agency.
Noah Syndergaard was a free agent, who had a qualifying offer in hand and wanted to return to the Mets. However, while the Mets were focused elsewhere, the Los Angeles Angels and other teams were making their pitch.
The Mets immediate response to Syndergaard’s signing with the Angels was they weren’t given the last chance to sign him. Of course, to make that request, they’d actually have to talk to the player.
Not even a week went by, and the Mets are once again upset a player who wanted to return to the Mets didn’t give them an opportunity to make the final offer. This time, it was Steven Matz.
As the story goes, Matz first contacted the Mets, and the team’s interest was mutual. It was a wide open field, but for whatever reason, the Mets not only we’re going to get the opportunity to match, but they were willing to match the deal Matz signed with the St. Louis Cardinals.
However, that’s not what happened. Matz liked the deal and the opportunity presented by the Cardinals, so he signed with them. Mets owner Steve Cohen was angry:
I’m not happy this morning . I’ve never seen such unprofessional behavior exhibited by a player’s agent.I guess words and promises don’t matter.
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) November 24, 2021
Keep in mind, this was the same Matz the Mets traded for spare parts (Sean Reid-Foley, Yennsy Diaz, and Josh Winckowski). The Mets could’ve extended him last year with zero competition, but they instead traded him.
The Mets getting upset over Syndergaard and Matz not giving them the final chance shows they fail to understand the core concept of free agency. Free agents owe no loyalty to anyone, and they can sign with whomever they want.
For the Mets, you can almost write this off as a fluke. After all, it’s not often these situations present themselves, and it’s really infrequent this happens in a week.
The problem is it’s not just this week. Last year, the Mets thought they had Trevor Bauer signed. Honestly, with the website snafu, everyone did.
When Bauer went to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Alderson complained this was the furthest in the process he went in contract negotiations with a free agent and not get the player. As a result, Anderson and the Mets (fortunately) didn’t sign Bauer.
This marks the third time the Mets thought they were in a great position to sign a player only to come up empty. At some point, that’s a Mets problem and not a agents problem.
Argue over whether the Mets should’ve signed these players all you want. The fact is the Mets lost out on all three, and they wanted all three. That’s a huge problem.
Cohen can pretend it’s the agents fault. It’s not. The Mets are failing to sign players, and all they can do is tweet their way through it.
The Mets need to do better. If they want a player give them a strong offer while they’re there and don’t let them go out and leverage your offer. Just get it done, and then tweet out you actually signed the player.
That’s how free agency works.
As previously noted, Steven Matz has defined himself as the old crafty lefty. He’s a back end of the rotation starter who pitches to contact.
As such, he’s going to succeed or fail largely based on the defense behind him. Considering the New York Mets defense behind him was a sick joke, he faltered.
It was so bad, he went to a bad defensive Toronto Blue Jays team, and it seemed like he was a completely different pitcher. Truth be told, the bad defense is a significant improvement over incompetent defense, and so, he thrived.
This is exactly why St. Louis was the prefect landing spot for Matz. His four year $44 million deal with the Cardinals benefits him and that team.
This past year the Cardinals were the first team to boast five Gold Glovers in Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, Tommy Edman, Tyler O’Neil, and Harrison Bader. Notably, two-thirds of the Cardinals outfield was golden.
Remember, Matz is a pitcher who yields batted balls in the air roughly 55% of the time. The Cardinals 29 DRS in the outfield helps him immensely.
Fact is, the Cardinals have long been a defense forward thinking organization. Their entire team had an 81 DRS, good for second best in the majors.
Combine this with Mike Maddux being one of the best pitching coaches in the game, and you have the absolute best place for Matz. There was literally no better spot, and he’s going to thrive there unlike anywhere else.
That’s not to say he wouldn’t have thrived with the Mets. We know he can because we saw it. If he came back to the Mets to work with Jeremy Hefner, their vastly developing and improving analytics department, and their improved defense, Matz would’ve done well.
Matz just wouldn’t have done as well with the Mets as he will with the Cardinals. Truth be told, Matz needed a better situation, and the Mets needed a better pitcher. If the Mets do what they need to do this offseason, this is best for all involved.
There can be a debate as to when the New York Mets knew they needed a front office overhaul. It could’ve been since the start of the season since they failed to hire a president of baseball operations last year.
It could’ve been as late as Zack Scott’s DUI arrest. Whatever the case, the Mets knew before the end of the season they needed a front office overhaul.
What ensued was a protracted search which missed the mark. First, the Mets again gave up on hiring a POBO. Then, it was a GM search.
While this was happening, other teams went to work on their offseason plans. That goes double for the Los Angeles Angels.
While the Mets had no leadership and no plan, Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels. While the Mets had radio silence, the Angels were laying out their plan from their assembled front office. The sales pitch and uncertainty had an effect on Syndergaard and his decision:
"This is kind of a make or break time for me. I didn't want to gamble on that kind of uncertainty that was going on with them"
Noah Syndergaard after he was asked if the Mets' GM and managerial search impacted his free agency decision pic.twitter.com/qIzgRxwYXz
— SNY (@SNYtv) November 19, 2021
While Syndergaard was due partially to confusion over the front office, Aaron Loup was something else. Loup was great for the Mets, and he wanted to stay. He didn’t.
During the Mets exclusive window to negotiate with Loup, they were trying to assemble a front office. Again, while this was happening, the Angels were making their pitch to Loup. Obviously, it was a successful one.
So, Billy Eppler hasn’t been on the job for a week, and he’s seen Syndergaard and Loup leave. That’s not to say the Mets aren’t moving. After all, they’re pursuing Steven Matz.
Again, the Mets are working from behind. The Angels aren’t and have struck twice. Who knows where this stops, especially with Marcus Stroman still a free agent.
The Mets have time to act, but free agent starters are flying off the board. More to the point, the Angels are taking some of their best pitchers, and it’s possible it’ll happen again soon.
The New York Mets desperately need a third baseman. This has basically been the case since David Wright initially went down in 2015, and it’s the case now.
There’s two issues with filling that vacancy. First and foremost, the third base free agent pool is not great. Case-in-point, Kris Bryant is far and away the best option, and he may not be a third baseman anymore.
The Mets could try to sign a shortstop like or Corey Seager to move them to third, but that’s easier said than done. If you can sign any one of them, you do it.
Yes, that’s the case when the Mets have Mark Vientos and Brett Baty. Neither are guaranteed to succeed in the majors or stick at third. Notably, for a Mets system bereft of outfield talent, both players have played some left field.
This leaves the Mets with a conundrum. They can’t hand the position to a prospect. For some reason, they don’t trust Jeff McNeil. It’ll be difficult to get a shortstop and move him to third.
Well, that leaves them looking for a stopgap. It’s not the solution anyone wants, but it’s the situation they find themselves. Glossing over the free agent list, Kyle Seager jumps off the page.
Seager, 34, is very clearly past his prime. He’s not the 5+ WAR player he was five years ago. The Mets don’t need him to be that. Really, they just need him to be Seager.
In 159 games last year, Seager hit a woeful .212/.285/.438 with good power numbers. Seager had 29 doubles, a triple, 35 homers, and 101 RBI. Ultimately, he had a 100 OPS+ making him the epitome of a league average hitter.
Behind those numbers was a dip in his walk rate, an uptick in his strikeout rate, and a shockingly low .226 BABIP. While he’s traditionally been a lower BABIP guy, he’s never really been that low.
Judging from Baseball Savant, Seager is still able to square up a ball and drive it. After all, you don’t play in Safeco and hit 35 homers without that ability. Still, his exit velocity dipped in three straight years.
With better plate discipline, and his working with a hitting coach (whoever that will be), Seager could be better than he was in 2021. At the very least, he could be back around league average even if the numbers look different.
If that’s the case, that would be great news for a team like the Mets. While Seager is known for his power, the real value lies in his glove. While he’s not the Gold Glover he once was, he’s still very good at the position.
In 2021, Seager had a 4 OAA. That’s a slight uptick from the 3 OAA he had in 2019 and 2020. That 4 OAA ranked tied for eighth in the majors. His 13 OAA since 2019 also ranks eighth.
Seager is a very good glove, and that’s of increased importance with the Mets. While the pitching staff will be rebuilt, they still have ground ball pitchers in Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker as locks for the rotation.
Adding Seager at third would improve the Mets. His glove would make the pitching better, and there’s still something in that bat. In the event the Mets can’t convince a Correa to move to third, Seager is definitely the stopgap option which would help improve this team.
Takahashi Kashiwada. Tsuyoshi Shinjo. Satoru Komiyama. Kazuo Matsui. Ryota Igarashi. With all due respect to Masato Yoshii, the New York Mets forays into Japan have typically ended very poorly.
While the process and luck has been bad, it’s meaningless when looking to any players out of Japan. Enter Seiya Suzuki.
The 27 year old Suzuki has been a great hitter in Japan with an OPS over 1.000 in three out of the last four seasons. In terms of age and production, it’s where Hideki Matsui was before coming to the New York Yankees.
Matsui thrived in New York. He was a two Time All-Star and a World Series MVP. Again, this means nothing as compared to Suzuki. All it does is just show a Japanese star in his prime can thrive in New York.
There seems to be a consensus Suzuki will sign for an AAV between $7 – $10 million per year. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Suzuki would sign for five years $55 million.
Some believe he’s a five tool player, and he’s the best player in Japan. Some wonder if he can translate his skills to Major League pitching. No one knows, but at that price, it’s worth the gamble for the Mets.
Remember, they don’t just need one outfielder; they need two. Right now, Brandon Nimmo is their only real Major League everyday outfielder on the roster.
As we see, the Mets options are flawed and limited. They need to re-sign Michael Conforto, and they still need another outfielder. No one on the free agent market has Suzuki’s upside.
When you need two outfielders in a thin free agent class, you need to take some calculated risks. If you’re the Mets, and you’re really going to go for it, $10 million to Suzuki is a worthwhile gamble.
Past history with Japanese players should mean nothing. All that matters is the Mets have a desperate need for an outfielder, they have money, and Suzuki could be great for them.