With Edwin Díaz, the New York Mets have the best closer in baseball. As for the rest of the bullpen, well, that’s a question mark right now.
The expectation is the Mets will address this at the trade deadline. At first blush, there’s a lot which needs addressing. However, when you dig deeper, maybe the Mets are in much better shape than originally contemplated.
Lets start with the fact Major League Baseball has a 13 pitcher limit. After the five man rotation, which will be further bolstered by Jacob deGrom’s return, a team can carry seven relievers.
We know Díaz is the closer. As a result, the Mets need to fill six bullpen spots. Here’s how they look.
Adam Ottavino has been terrific with a 2.29 ERA, 176 ERA+, and a 10.5 K/9. He’s emerged as a primary set-up man. That’s five spots remaining.
Seth Lugo looks like a different reliever out of the break. He’s yet to allow a run in 4.2 innings. His run goes deeper than that. Since June 8, he has a 2.70 ERA. That’s four spots remaining.
Trevor Williams has been an important pitcher for the Mets all season. With a healthy rotation Williams will now stay in the bullpen.
As a reliever this season, he has a 1.50 ERA striking out 10.9 per nine, and he recorded his first career save this season. He can be a long man, and we’ve recently seen him get some late inning opportunities. That’s three spots remaining.
Trevor May will be coming off the IL. He’s a high leverage reliever who had a 3.38 ERA, 130 ERA+, and a 12.1 K/9 out of the bullpen from 2018 – 2021.
He looked strong during his rehab outings. If he’s back to form, the Mets bullpen gets exponentially better and deeper. That’s two spots remaining.
Now, this is where things get a little interfering. The Mets have a mix of arms in Tommy Hunter, Stephen Nogosek, and Yoan López, each of whom has performed well when given a chance.
However, that’s depth, and the Mets understandably aren’t going to rely on them come the postseason. Of course, with the innings they get from the starting rotation, the Mets may never really need anything beyond Diaz-May-Lugo-Ottavino.
Still, you build as strong a bullpen as you can. It’s possible the remaining two spots could bee filled internally.
Buck Showalter has said Tylor Megill will move to the bullpen when he comes off the IL. When he was healthy, Megill was dominant, and he could be a real weapon in the bullpen.
Of course, that also applied to Drew Smith. However, no one knows if Smith can return this year. That may go double with Megill.
As a result, ideally speaking, the Mets have two spots to fill. That could’ve been one, but Colin Holderman was traded for Daniel Vogelbach. As a result, it’s two spots.
With Joely Rodriguez being a disappointment, and with the needless obsession with LOOGYS even despite the three batter rule, the Mets will likely bend backwards to get a left-handed reliever. It’s dumb, but that’s what they’ll do.
That leaves the team finding one more big arm. Given his success in New York, and how he’s pitched this year, David Robertson is THE perfect fit. Of course, there are other options.
Then again, if the Mets get no one, they will still be fine.
As noted, the starting pitching goes deep. So far this year, they average 5.2 innings per start. Remember, that’s without one deGrom start and the team getting 30 starts outside their projected Opening Day rotation.
If we focus on Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker, they’re averaging almost six innings per start. Again, this is without deGrom.
Keep in mind, one of those five moves to the postseason bullpen. That takes one of the two needed slots. Maybe they also carry David Peterson even if he struggled in his two cracks at the short relief route.
Really, when you break it down, the Mets already can go with what they already have in October. That goes double if Megill and/or Smith return.
While very true, the Mets still should get Robertson. That’s a move that puts this bullpen in a different stratosphere and pushes them closer to being World Series favorites.
According to reports, it appears James McCann will be ready to return from the IL sooner than expected. That’s great news for a team getting nothing offensively from Tomás Nido and really nothing at all from Patrick Mazeika.
McCann’s return probably takes the Mets out of the Willson Contreras hunt. With this being a pitching first team and his framing, that’s not a bad thing.
However, that doesn’t mean the Mets should completely overlook upgrading the catcher position. On that point, it appears Francisco Álvarez is getting closer and closer.
When first called up to Triple-A, Álvarez struggled. Over his first eight games, he was batting .087/.324/.130. What should stand out there is the .324 OBP.
That was a sign he wasn’t being dominated. In fact, it was just the hits weren’t coming. He was not yet driving the ball. However, he was in the at-bat, and even while struggling and adapting, he was finding ways on base.
From there, he went to the MLB Future’s Game in Los Angeles during the All-Star Break. Álvarez was 0-for-1 with a walk, but he came back to Syracuse a different player.
Since he returned, Álvarez is 5-for-21 with two doubles, two homers, and eight RBI. Astoundingly, he’s walked eight times. That’s a .238/.448/.639 batting line.
Notably, he continues getting on base. In fact, he’s drawn a walk in four straight games and seven of his last eight games. Of those seven games, five of them were multi-walk games.
Now, we see the power coming. There’s also some clutch there with a grand slam and walk-off homer.
"There's your magic moment in Triple-A for Francisco Álvarez!"
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 29, 2022
The @Mets' — and baseball's — top prospect ends the game with a long walk-off homer for the @SyracuseMets. pic.twitter.com/NiZwuqExzY
Álvarez now has a three game hitting streak, and he has a hit in five of the six games after the Future’s Game. In five of those six, he’s reached base multiple times.
While this is a multi-layered approach and analysis, in Álvarez, we see a player getting closer and closer to being Major League ready. With every walk and extra base hit, he gets closer to Queens.
In the end, McCann can be healthy. Nido can be strong behind the plate. However, when Álvarez is ready, nothing is going to stop him from getting to the majors. Increasingly, it looks like that’ll happen this year.
The New York Mets struck a deal to acquire OF Tyler Naquin and LHP Phillip Diehl from the Cinnanati Reds for prospects RHP Jose Acuña and center field prospect Hector Rodríguez. From a Mets perspective, the move really didn’t make any sense for the team.
Let’s get the easy one out of the way. Diehl has not been all the good in his career, and that may be kind. His strikeout rates from the minors has not translated to the majors, but his control issues have. If this is the Mets answer for left-handed reliever, the Mets have completely failed on that front. Chances are, he goes to the minors and stays there.
As for Naquin, over his career, he is a good bat against right-handed pitching, and he has real speed on the basepaths. This season he has a 117 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and for his career, he has a 111. Between him and the Daniel Vogelbach acquisition, you see the Mets are attempting to address the team’s offense against right-handed pitching.
On that front, while the Mets have one of the best offenses on the season with a 112 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, they have only had a 101 wRC+ since June 1. Another note here is the Mets only have 67 homers belying a real power outage in the lineup. On that front, you understand Naquin who has a .472 SLG this season against right-handed pitching.
However, is has to be noted here Mark Canha has actually been a better hitter against right-handed pitching. This season, Canha has a 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and he has a 122 for his career. While he has zero power left, sitting him to play Naquin doesn’t make all the much sense. That goes double when you consider Naquin is a very poor outfielder.
While Naquin is fast, he has always been bad in the outfield. This year, he has a -1 OAA, and for his career he has a -25 OAA in the outfield. This is not a late inning replacement by any means.
Yes, he does hit better than Travis Jankowski, but in terms of roster construction, Jankowski offered more to this team. While Naquin has a 28.0 ft/sec sprint speed, Jankowski has a 29.0 ft/sec sprint speed. Whereas Naquin has historically been a very poor base stealer, Jankowski has been a very good one.
Another factor here is Buck Showalter has liked lifting Canha for Jankowski for late inning defense or to pinch run. In his career, Jankowski has been a very good fielder capable of playing all three defensive positions. As noted, Naquin is a horrible fielder and should actually be lifted late in games.
Seeing all of this, you have to question what is the end game here? Did the Mets look at Canha and not trust he can keep up his offensive production? You can understand that because his hard hit rates are very low, and that .317 BABIP is due for a course correction. If that is the case, Canha didn’t last a year before the Mets admitted they needed to upgrade over him making his signing a mistake (even if he has a half season worth of good production).
If it was to have Naquin sit on the bench, well, he’s been an awful pinch hitter in his career. In his 65 attempts, he is hitting just .196/.292/.286.
Again, it’s just a bizarre move. Either, you want him to take over for Canha, who is hitting better against right-handed pitching, or you want him to be a reserve where he is a poor pinch hitter, doesn’t steal bases, and plays bad defense.
Given all that, it would seem a mistake to give up Acuña and Rodríguez. These are two very promising prospects who were already considered top 30 prospects in this system. That’s a high cost to pay for an outfielder who does not really have a role on this team.
Hopefully, the Mets are not done, and there are still moves to be made where eventually this move will make sense. It’s doubtful, but the Mets do have five days to make good on this. If they don’t, they got rid of two promising and rising prospects to not really improve the team.
From a New York Mets perspective, the first installment of the 2022 Subway Series was a success. After all, they completed a sweep.
Really, there was a lot of good. Max Scherzer was every bit the ace. Taijuan Walker showed he can be a big game pitcher. Edwin Dįaz had a four out save.
Pete Alonso’s hit hitting continued. Francisco Lindor’s bat reawoken. Starling Marte had a walk-off hit. Again, there was a lot of good in these two games.
None of these moments were more important than Seth Lugo’s appearance.
It’s no secret the Mets need middle relief help. That was all the more apparent when David Peterson allowed a game tying two run homer to Gleyber Torres in the eighth.
Of course, Buck Showalter went to Peterson partially because Joely Rodriguez has not been effective this season. The other reason is the Mets had two innings to figure out.
In the previous game, both Díaz and Adam Ottavino pitched over an inning. In all likelihood, neither were available for this game. That goes double for Ottavino.
If not them, then who? That’s an all the more difficult question in the aftermath of the Mets trading Colin Holderman for Daniel Vogelbach.
And yes, Lugo has been part of the problem. On-and-off the field has been mentally tasking for him. There’s the injuries, a sick child, a pregnant wife, and then the missed birth of his second born child.
In some ways, it’s no wonder we hadn’t seen the real Lugo yet. As a result, we see a pitcher with a career worst year out of the pen.
He has a 4.01 FIP and 2.83 K/BB with his strikeouts down to an 8.3 K/9. He has a 9.64 ERA on no rest. He hasn’t been nearly as effective in a second inning of work.
This played a part in Peterson over Lugo to start the inning. Now, if this was the Lugo of old, he’s out there for the six inning save. Well, after the Peterson blown save, we got to see the Lugo of old:
Lugo’s curve embarrassed and struck out Josh Donaldson. It was the first out of the five Lugo recorded en route to his second win of the season.
Lugo was excellent.
After getting two quick outs in the eighth, he would face Aaron Judge with the go-ahead run on first. He would get Judge to ground out to end the inning and the rally.
This is what Lugo once was not long ago. He was dominant for more than an inning golf work. He took control of the game. Lugo chalked it up to adrenaline.
If that’s all he needed, he needs to make sure he has it in his next outing and each of the ensuing ones. If a full house ramped up with energy brought out the best in Lugo, he’s ready and will be phenomenal for October.
It wasn’t just this outing. This is his second one after the All-Star Break. That’s 3 1/3 scoreless. Seeing Lugo out there, there’s a lot more to come.
If so, that’s one fewer reliever the Mets need at the deadline. If so, the Mets could have a lights out bullpen. That goes double with Trevor May returning from the IL.
For at least one moment, Lugo was Lugo, and the Mets won. We’ll see the if he is his next time on the mound. Odds are, Lugo will be great again, and if so, this Mets team is on a whole other level. Just ask the Yankees.
For some reason , bizarre things just seem to happen to the New York Mets when they play the New York Yankees. The Mets usually lose as a result.
Choose your moment of infamy. Todd Zeile’s would be homer off Andy Pettitte landing on top of the left field wall leading to Derek Jeter nailing Timo Pérez at the plate.
Of course, the moment which will forever haunt us all is the Luis Castillo dropped pop up. Instead of a Mets win, they lose as Mark Teixeira got on his horse (pun intended) and scored from first to win the game.
For a moment, it seemed like the Mets were going to have another one of those awful gut wrenching moments against the Yankees.
With the Mets up 6-3, a runner on first, and one out, Aaron Judge hit a tapper back to Edwin Díaz. What could’ve been a game ending double play looked like another game just horrifically thrown away.
Edwin Díaz, -27mph Fastball. 😂 pic.twitter.com/jq3G6yugwu
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 27, 2022
There are no words for how bad that was. In that moment, you do have a slight pause and concern Díaz will throw it into center, but you never imagine he just won’t throw it at all.
You can already see the narratives emerging. The Mets are reeling, and the Yankees would be the ones who effectively ended their season. The Mets were again going to give away the division to the Atlanta Braves.
Diaz is not a big time closer who cannot handle the pressure situations or New York. He cannot handle the four out saves, and if the Mets even get to October, he will melt down there. Really, this was going to be as insufferable a loss as the Mets could possibly have.
Of course, there would be Mets fans concerns and panic coupled with Yankees fans gloating to make it all the worse. Thankfully, that moment was just a moment we can all laugh about now.
Instead of Anthony Rizzo hitting that game tying three run homer we all expected, he struck out. Then, Gleyber Torres struck out to end the game. Essentially, Diaz did what great closers do – they shake it off and get the next batter.
Maybe this is a sign things are different this year. Certainly, it is a sign Diaz is different, and maybe these two things go hand-in-hand. Whatever the case, we don’t have another Luis Castillo moment, and for that, we as Mets fans can be eternally grateful.
When you look at the New York Mets, the obvious area to address for offense is catcher. After all, Tomas Nido has a 47 wRC+, and Patrick Mazeika has a 39. That’s just indefensibly bad offensive production.
Now, this is the obvious spot where we say the Mets should call-up Francisco Alvarez. With Alvarez hitting a double and grand slam in consecutive games, we are not at that point yet. After all, he is hitting .125/.318/.281 over 10 games. You can argue that will probably translate better than what they are getting now, but with Alvarez, it is more than just what he can give you now.
Surveying the trade market, it would seem Willson Contreras and his career best 140 wRC+ would be a perfect fit. In actuality, this would be a mistake for the Mets.
Ultimately, this is a team built on its pitching. A large part of that has been the work Nido has done behind the plate.
Nido has been a terrific framer. In fact, as per Baseball Savant, he is tied as for 14th best among framers. He’s a good week from moving up to the top 10. While he doesn’t rate nearly as high, he does have impressive pop times. He is a defensive wizard back there, and he’s helping the Mets pitching staff.
This season, the Mets staff have the sixth best ERA (3.60) and FIP (3.65) and the best K/9 (9.65). They’re also walking few batters with their 2.86 BB/9 ranking seventh. The pitching staff is dominant, and more than anything else, that is why the Mets are in first place.
Look at it another way, this team cannot hit their way out of a paper bag right now. Still, they’re 9-7 over their last 16. The biggest reason is the pitching. Since Max Scherzer has come all the IL, the starting rotation has a 1.70 ERA, which is easily the best in the majors. This right here is the Mets strength, and it’s going to be more of a strength when Jacob deGrom returns from the IL.
This is also before you see Edwin Diaz is finally comfortable and dominating. He’s easily the best closer in baseball right now.
Contreras would only serve to diminish that.
Contreras has one of the worst called strike rates in the majors. Sure, part of that could be the Chicago Cubs pitching staff, and overall, Contreras has good framing numbers. However, as noted by the strike rate, that is deceiving. Maybe things will be better with the Mets, maybe not. Given what’s at stake, it’s too big of a risk to take.
If Contreras doesn’t jive with the Mets pitchers, that’s it. This team’s strength has taken a massive hit. Now, you have another Wilson Ramos situation where you’re just relying on him to hit. That’s a dicey proposition.
For his career, Contreras is a 127 wRC+ at Wrigley and a 108 on the road. That’s carried into this year where he is a 150 wRC+ at home and a 127 on the road. Again, he is far better at home, and an important note here, while it’s only a 15 game sample size, he hits .180/.263/.260 at Citi Field.
Ultimately, even if Ramos is at his career worst at the plate, he’s a significant upgrade over what the Mets already have offensively. However, catcher is a defensive position above all else. It is about the roughly 40 plate appearances you are behind the plate over the four you get yourself. Looking at it that way, what Nido is doing is far more valuable.
The Mets can improve their offense by addressing other areas. Even with Daniel Vogelbach, they can improve at DH. They can improve at third and left. Maybe if Alvarez is ready, they can improve there. What they can’t do right now is gamble on Contreras. That is a move that can hurt them more than it can help them.
Think of a situation where you would choose to bat Tomás Nido over Jeff McNeil. Can’t think of it, right?
What if I told you the game was on the line? Down one. Tying run on second. Winning run on third.
Even more unfatomable to go with Nido over McNeill. Well, it gets better.
Nido had to leave the previous game after a Max Scherzer pitch hit him in the wrist. The concern was such that the Mets traded for Michael Perez from the Pittsburgh Pirates, who is having a terrible tear framing and hitting.
It gets better.
Nido was a surprise starter. During the game, Nido’s injured hand was stomped on by Jake Cronenworth in the eighth inning.
So, Nido had a hand injury stemming from a Scherzer fastball. Then, a day later, it gets stomped on in the eighth inning. Somehow, Nido gets to bat with a game on the line.
Short of McNeil getting the Monty Python black knight treatment, it’s ludicrous to think anyone in their right mind would bat Nido over McNeil?
Honestly, who cares if it’s Taylor Rogers or Randy Johnson? McNeil has a 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this year and 111 for his career.
Nido has a 55 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, which is far better than the 38 he has against right-handed pitching. For his career, he has a 69 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Nido is only in the lineup because if his work behind the plate. He’s never thete to hit. That’s the case whether it’s the first or the bottom of the ninth with two outs and the tying and go-ahead runs on base.
But, that’s just what Buck Showalter did. He let Nido go up there and pop out to end the game while McNeil set on the bench.
If you thought he had a good explanation fir it, well, you’d be sadly mistaken:
Remember, this is the same Showalter who left Zack Britton in the bullpen and who used Jack McDowell. He had Bobby Chouinard pitch to Edgardo Alfonzo.
There were articles upon articles last year demanding Luis Rojas be fired, and he never did anything this dumb. We won’t see the same with Showalter.
What’s odd was the clamoring for him. He’s won nowhere, and he keeps doing things like this. There’s a reasons he’s won nowhere.
This time, it was Nido over McNeil. Given his track record, we should all shudder over what it will be next.
With the New York Mets current DH situation, you can understand pursuing Daniel Vogelbach. He annihilates right-handed pitching and adds a power threat behind Pete Alonso.
That said, the Mets made the move without ever optimizing their lineup. As pointed out here, the Mets never fully tried Luis Guillorme at second, Jeff McNeil in left, and Mark Canha at DH.
With respect to that, here are the respective wRC+ this season for the players at issue:
* Canha 123 wRC*
* Guillorme 119 wRC+
* Vogelbach 118 wRC+
Vogelbach is the worst hitter of that group. Of course, it’s more about Vogelbach against right-handed pitching. With respect to that, he is better.
However, not so much, you ravage your bullpen. Vogelbach does have a 149 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but both Canha and Guillorme are at a 136.
Again, they’re better against right-handed pitching, but they were already good against right-handed pitching, at least with an optimized lineup. Also, their bullpen is worse.
We saw it in the Mets 4-1 loss to the San Diego Padres. Max Scherzer left with the Mets down 2-0 after six. Joely Rodriguez was wholly ineffective allowing two runs before needing to be bailed out by Seth Lugo.
It was a perfect illustration as to why the Mets couldn’t just frivolously part with Colin Holderman. As noted above, with the offensive production so close, it was frivolous because it further weakened a weakness.
On the season, Holderman was 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and a 9.2 K/9. Seeing those numbers and his pure stuff, you understand why the Pirates wanted him.
However, it’s why the Mets couldn’t afford to part with him, at least not now. Right now, there is no bridge to Edwin Diaz. Holderman was emerging to be part of that bridge, but now, he’s gone.
Sure, Billy Eppler said there’s plenty available on the relief market. However, you have to be able to get them. Moreover, you now need another arm to replace Holderman.
The Mets did this to incrementally improve their offense against right-handed pitching while ignoring the very real problems against left-handed pitching. Their bullpen is overall worse.
So yes, Vogelbach serves a need and is a slight improvement. However, the team is on more uneasy footing because it cannot handle the innings leading up to Diaz.
In the end, you can argue this trade actually hurt the Mets chances. That makes the next 10 days vital to the Mets chances to win the division and World Series.
The 2022 MLB Draft has passed, and any hopes the New York Mets had for free agent compensation for Michael Conforto has passed. With that in mind, the team might as well just sign him and bring him home.
Starting with the obvious, the Mets DH situation is a disaster. The collective 80 wRC+ is the worst in the National League and is in desperate need of an upgrade.
Yes, we know Conforto cannot play right now. He is still rehabbing an offseason shoulder injury, which may cost him the season. However, as his agent Scott Boras has intimated, it’s possible Conforto could be ready to DH this year.
Certainly, Conforto is going to want to try to play this year. After all, he’s not getting paid. Also, without him being seen, his market value continues to dive.
For him, a Mets reunion may be in his best interests. He’s performed in New York and wanted to stay in New York. This could be his best spot to rebuild value.
As an aside, he did want to stay. Rejecting a lowball extension and turning down the qualifying offer doesn’t mean he wanted to leave. Rather, it means the Mets were not all that serious about keeping him.
The upside with signing him now is the Mets can spread his salary across two seasons for luxury tax threshold purposes. Boras can boast about getting the $20 million (or whatever the cost would be) while giving Conforto an opportunity to re-establish value.
For the Mets, they know how good Conforto is. After all, this is a player with a 124 wRC+ and 9 OAA with the team. He’s one of the Mets best homegrown players.
Seriously, much of the narrative against him is wrong. Streaky? Well, everyone is. Case-in-point, has everyone gotten bent out of shape with Pete Alonso hitting .203/.253/.348 this month? Of course not, even though he does this multiple times a year . . . as does everyone.
He can’t hit left-handed pitching? Well, explain how he has a 105 wRC+ against them since 2019.
Conforto is a very good player, and he’s a leader. Moreover, he’s an insurance policy.
Brandon Nimmo can leave via free agency. It would help to have a cheaper replacement just in case. Moreover, it wouldn’t hurt fostering a good relationship with Scott Boras and bringing Nimmo’s friend back.
We’ve also seen Mark Canha continue to regress. Yes, the Mets have gotten a productive season out of him, but his hard hit rates, speed, and defense continue to decline. The Mets and Canha may not be so lucky next year.
Ultimately, it’s an arrangement which helps both sides. Conforto can get paid to rehab and reestablish value in a place he liked playing. For the Mets, they could get an extra hitter this year while protecting against regression and losing players to free agency.
All told, it’s time the Mets bring Conforto back.