Right after the season was over, the Mets did the smart thing, and they picked up Jose Reyes option for the 2017 season. Reyes is a player that gives the Mets depth, and he provides insurance for some key positions.
Should David Wright go down again, we saw Reyes can handle playing third base. Should Asdrubal Cabrera have another injury plagued year, Reyes can spell him on a number of days in order to keep Cabrera fresh. With an offseason to work on it, Reyes can also make himself a capable defender at second base and quite possibly the outfield. Second base is interesting because the Mets do not know if Neil Walker can return or what Walker could provide with a surgically repaired back. With that in mind, there has been discussion about Reyes possibly being the everyday second baseman. He shouldn’t.
The main reason is Reyes has essentially become a much faster with less power version of Wilmer Flores at the plate.
Both players absolutely maul left-handed pitching while they are feeble hitters from the right-hand side of the plate. Without telling you who was who, here are their splits from the 2016 season:
| vs. RHP | vs. LHP | |
| Player A | .232/.289/.353 | .340/.383/.710 |
| Player B | .239/.293/.371 | .380/.456/.740 |
To show this is part of a larger trend, here are the numbers from the 2015 season as well:
| vs. RHP | vs. LHP | |
| Player A | .251/.279/.358 | .310/.355/.600 |
| Player B | .275/.309/.374 | .273/.311/.388 |
If you had trouble deciphering which one was Reyes and which one was Flores that is the point. If you thought Player A was Flores and Player B was Reyes, you were correct. After reviewing the numbers, wouldn’t it be fair to say that at least offensively Flores has become the better player?
Now, there are some caveats to this. In 2015, Reyes only played in 116 games due to injury and trade. In 2016, he only played in 60 games due to his suspension and his eventual release. When you have smaller sample sizes, you tend to see greater fluctuations in the statistics. It is an important caveat when you consider Reyes has largely been platoon neutral in his career. Naturally, you would want to rely upon the splits from a player’s entire 14 year career than from two abbreviated seasons.
However, you cannot ignore trends, especially trends from a player that is going to be turning 34 next season. In his four years since leaving the Mets, Reyes has been a .286/.334/.409 hitter who has averaged 29 doubles, four triples, nine homers, and 50 RBI with 27 stolen bases a season. Compare that to the .292/.341/.441 hitter who averaged 25 doubles, 11 triples, nine homers, and 47 RBI with 41 stolen bases during Reyes’ first tour of duty with the Mets. Fact is, Reyes is a different player than the one we knew.
And no, this isn’t a case of Reyes being a different player in New York. In his only year with the Marlins, he hit .287/.347/.433 with 37 doubles, 12 triples, 11 homers, and 57 RBI with 40 stolen bases. In Reyes’ first year with the Blue Jays, he hit .296/.353/.427 with 20 doubles, no triples, 1o homers, 37 RBI, and 15 stolen bases. That 2013 season with the Blue Jays was an injured plagued one for Reyes as he only played in 93 games. He hasn’t been the same player after that season becoming just a .279/.321/.400 hitter in the three subsequent years.
Overall, Reyes is still a talented player that has a lot to offer a team. However, Reyes no longer has the skills that made him an All Star caliber player. While he still has speed, he no longer has elite speed. While he can play the middle infield, he no longer has the range he once had. While he can still hit for some power, he no longer has the ability to consistently get on base. Long story short, Reyes is a player in decline. It’s what happens to players in their mid 30s.
Despite the decline, Reyes should be a valuable contributor to the Mets in 2017. His ability to play across the diamond and use his speed is a real asset. Still, you will get diminishing returns playing him everyday. You will notice the low OBP and his platoon splits. This is why Reyes needs to be a utility player for the Mets next season.
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the fourth set of grades, here are the Mets utility players:
Early on in the season, Flores mostly struggled with getting limited playing time. It was difficult cracking into the starting lineup when Neil Walker, David Wright, and Asdrubal Cabrera playing well in April. As the season progressed, and the Mets became more and more injured, notably Wright and Lucas Duda, Flores was needed, and he really stepped up.
Where Flores really thrived was being used as a platoon option against left-handed pitching. Against lefties, Flores would hit an astounding .340/.383/.710 with four doubles, 11 homers, and 28 RBI. If you extrapolated those numbers of the course of a full 162 game season, Flores would’ve hit 36 homers and 93 RBI. That would have made him the best hitter in the Mets lineup this season. However, Flores’ numbers were nowhere near that as he struggled against right-handed pitching hitting .232/.289/.353 with 10 doubles, five homers, and 21 RBI. It should be noted Flores had 107 plate appearances against lefties and 228 plate appearances against righties.
For the season, Flores hit .267/.319/.469 with 14 doubles, 16 homers, and 49 RBI. Flores’ numbers were an upgrade over his 2015 numbers. Given how he has progressed each year over his career, and the fact that he is only 25 years old, we should see an improved Flores at the plate in 2017.
Even with some optimism, there is some doubt. Despite his improvement at the plate, he still didn’t walk enough, and he doesn’t hit right-handed pitching enough to play everyday. While he made marked improvements at shortstop as the 2015 season progressed, Flores regressed there defensively in 2016. In fact, Flores did not play all that well defensively at any position; although, he did show some promise at first base.
Part of the reason for Flores foibles could be he’s prone to the occasional gaffe (similar to Daniel Murphy). It could be him trying to do too much, it could be him having more faith in his abilities than he probably should, it could be his high effort level, or it could be something different altogether. Whatever it is, it was front and center when Tim Teufel made the baffling decision to send Flores home during that September 10th game against the Braves. It was absolutely a bad send, but it quite have possibly been a worse slide. Flores going in head first against a catcher like A.J. Pierzynski lead to his season-ending injury which required surgery to remove the hook of the hamate bone in the offseason.
The best thing you can say about Flores in the 2016 season was he was missed. During the Wild Card Game, the Mets were one bat short against Madison Bumgarner. With Flores’ stats against left-handed pitching, he could have gotten that one key hit the Mets needed to win that game. Except, he was injured and unable to play. The hope is he learns from this experience and comes back a better player in 2017.
After Ruben Tejada was released on the eve of the season, Campbell was a surprise member of the 25 man roster. Unfortunately, Campbell was not up to the task as he regressed yet another season. In 40 games, Campbell hit .173/.284/.227 with one double, one homer, and nine RBI. While the Mets organization was high on him to start the year (at least higher on him than most people), he didn’t do enough to justify their faith in him. It was his play that forced the Mets to go out and get James Loney to play first base after Duda’s injury.
Despite the fans apparent hatred of him, he still has use as minor league depth, and if used in small doses, he could have some benefit to a major league team as a pinch hitter and very part time player. Simply put, he was asked to do too much in 2016. That was one of the reasons he was removed from the 40 man roster, and it is why he is a minor league free agent at the moment.
Reynolds numbers during the 2016 season were lackluster. In 47 games, he only hit .255/.266/.416 with eight doubles, three homers, and 13 RBI. Still, it is hard to call Reynolds first 47 games in the major leagues disappointing because he did show some promise.
In his limited duty, Reynolds did show himself to be the Mets best major league ready defensive shortstop in the entire Mets organization. He also played well at second, third, and left field despite his playing a vast majority of his professional career at shortstop. In fact, the first ever game Reynolds played in left field was at the major league level. All Reynolds did in that game was play a representative left field and hit the game winning home run.
In 2016, Reynolds showed he could potentially be a major league bench player. As a former second round pick, many might have wanted more from Reynolds than what he has shown. That is not entirely fair at this point because he’s only played 47 games as a major leaguer, and in those 47 games, he showed he deserves another shot to be a major leaguer. With that in mind, despite his numbers being disappointing, Reynolds did have a succesful 2016 season, and we should look forward to what he can contribute in 2017 and beyond.
Ty Kelly C+
Just making it to the major leagues after his long odyssey in the minor leagues was a major accomplishment. And even though he made it to the majors as a result of a rash of injuries, he did earn his way to the majors with his hot hitting in Las Vegas. While he initially struggled, Terry Collins finally figured out what he was, and Kelly began to thrive.
Despite his being a switch hitter, Kelly was really best suited to facing left-handed pitching. While the sample size is really too small to derive a definitive conclusion, it should be noted Kelly put together much better at-bats from the right-hand side of the plate than he did from the left. As he faced more left-handed pitching, Kelly’s numbers improved, and he finished the season hitting .241/.352/.345 with a double, a triple, a homer, and seven RBI in 39 games.
In the field, while Kelly was used all over the place, and he performed better than anticipated. His best positions were probably third and left field. Unfortunately, Kelly did not demonstrate sufficient power to play at either of those positions. It should be noted that Kelly isn’t going to be a regular at the major league level. Rather, he is a bench player, so it is quite possible, his relative lack of power may not be as big an issue for him.
Ultimately, Kelly was rewarded for his hard work and resilence. He was rewarded not just with getting called-up to the majors, but also by being put on the Wild Card Game roster. In a season with a number of highlights for him, his seventh inning pinch hit single certainly has to rank well up there.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links. If you want to see the prior entries, here is the link for catchers, and here is the link for middle infielders.
The biggest question mark heading into the 2017 season is who is going to play second base for the New York Mets. Neil Walker handled the job quite well, and there has been interest from both sides on a reunion. We should know more about the potential for a reunion after Monday’s deadline for Walker to either accept or to reject the $17.2 million qualifying offer. While that decision hangs in the balance, along with Walker’s return, the Mets have to investigate all options for the position. Here are some candidates:
INTERNAL OPTIONS
2016 Stats: .333/.345/.476, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 16 RBI, 33 G
For many the 27 year old Rivera is the natural choice to become the Mets second baseman should Walker depart in free agency. In Rivera’s time with the Mets, he showed the ability to square up the ball at the plate, hit the ball gap-to-gap with some power, and he played better than expected defensively. Moreover, when there was a vacancy at the position due to a number of injuries, Rivera rose from the pack, and he staked his claim. He was the second baseman in the Wild Card Game, and he got a huge double in the game (that went for naught).
Still, there are a number of holes in Rivera’s game. He is never going to draw enough walks to justify playing everyday. Over the course of a full season, his defense may not look as good as it did in a very short sample size. Moreover, he is not the type of hitter that will hit for enough power to overcome those deficiencies. Overall, Rivera has shown he can play in the major leagues. Unforunately, he has not shown enough for the Mets to give him the second base job.
2016 Stats: .267/.326/.443, 13 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB, 60 G
With the Mets having picked up Reyes’ option, we know he is going to be a part of the 2017 Mets. What we don’t know is exactly where he is going to play. Most likely, he is insurance for David Wright‘s back. However, if Walker should depart in free agency, he could move back to the middle infield and become the starting second baseman.
That is probably not the best idea for the Mets. Last year, Reyes had marked platoon splits. From the right-hand side of the plate, Reyes hit .380/.456/.740. From the left-hand side of the plate, Reyes only hit .239/.293/.371. This is more than just a small sample size. These numbers are emblematic of a downward trend for Reyes from the left-hand side of the plate since 2014. While the hope is Reyes can fix these issues with Kevin Long, much in the same way as Walker did with Long in 2016, it is far from a guarantee it will work out as well. Looking at the numbers, along with his diminishing range, Reyes best help to the Mets may just be a super-sub.
2016 Stats: .267/.319/.469, 14 2B, 16 HR, 49 RBI, SB, 103 G
Essentially, everything said about Reyes goes double for Flores. He absolutely kills left-handed pitching (.340/.383/.710) while struggling against right-handed pitching (.232/.289/.353). At 25, Flores still has upside, and he has power in his bat, but at this point in his career, those intangibles do not outweigh the struggles he has defensively. Like Rivera and Reyes, Flores is probably best suited to the bench.
2016 AAA Stats: .325/.390/.448, 27 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 117 G
With the rise of Amed Rosario, Cecchini is going to have to move to second base if the former first round pick is ever going to become a starter for the Mets at the major league level. It is fair to say Cecchini’s bat is there. He is a player that can work the count, and he can drive the ball from gap-to-gap. The hope is that as the 22 year old ages, some of those gappers become homers as he develops physically.
Therein lies the issue with Cecchini. Is he really read to play in the majors after just four games in September? Better yet, is he ready to play second base after not having played more than two consecutive days at the position in his professional career. Given the fact this Mets team has World Series aspirations, the answer to the question is most likely “no.” With that Cecchini is better suited to being the starting second baseman in AAA next year and awaiting his opportunity.
2016 Stats: .280/.336/.474, 30 2B, 3B, 23 HR, 62 RBI, 141 G
This is the most unlikely internal option to play second base for the Mets next season. He is signed through next year, and he has a reasonably 2018 option the Mets could exercise should Rosario not be ready to take over by then. The mentioning of Cabrera serves to acknowledge the reality that his range is subpar for the position, and with his knee injuries last year, we should not expect it to get any better. In fact, his range may eventually force the Mets to move him. It is also possible Rosario has another outstanding season in the minors, and he may force his way onto the Mets roster next year. Even if neither situation presents itself, moving Cabrera to second would give the Mets a number of options on the free agent and trade market.
FREE AGENTS
2016 Stats: .285/.335/.446, 29 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB, 156 G
Desmond bet on himself when he took a one year deal from the Rangers, and he had an All Star season. However, it should be noted that came as an outfielder. It should also be noted Desmond has not played second base since his five games there in 2009. While the Mets could shift Cabrera to second to permit Desmond to return to short, it should be noted Desmond is an even worse defensive shortstop than Cabrera and Reyes.
The other issues with Desmond are the fact that he did most of his damage in the first half, and he did most of his damage at the Ballpark at Arlington. When you also consider the fact that he received a qualifying offer from the Rangers, the Mets would probably be better suited to looking elsewhere this offseason.
2016 Korean Stats: .330/.391/.558, 22 2B, 3 3B, 26 HR, 104 RBI, 118 G
With Korean players having succeeded in the major leagues the past few seasons, it is possible the Mets could be inclined to sign Hwang this offseason. Even with that said, under Sandy Alderson, the Mets have been reticent to attempt to sign foreign players to be everyday players for their major league club. Additionally, while Hwang has middle infield experience, it is at shortstop. In reality, he is more of a third baseman, and at 29 years old, it is difficult to gauge whether he could even make the transition to second.
2016 Stats: .252/.319/.396, 26 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 138 G
Yeah, this is never going to happen. Moving on.
That’s just the issue – the middle infield market really is Walker and then no one else. With that in mind, the Mets best option might just be bringing back Walker and hoping his surgically repaired back can withstand the rigors of playing everyday. If not, the Mets are going to have to turn to some type of platoon that features a number of players we do not know can handle the position defensively, and almost all of whom hit much better against left-handed pitching.
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the second set of grades, here are the Mets middle infielders:
Lucas Duda C-
The one sure thing you could say about Duda was the Mets missed him in 2016. The drop off at the plate from him to Loney was massive. Surprisingly, despite Loney’s reputation as being a good defender, there was a similar drop-off in the field. We know the Mets made the postseason anyway without Duda. What we don’t know is whether the Mets would have competed in the division or won the Wild Card Game with Duda in the lineup.
What we do know is that when Duda was on the field, he just wasn’t productive. In the 47 games he did play, he hit .229/.302/.412 with just seven doubles, seven home runs, and 23 RBI. Early on in the season, many were expecting Duda to have a typical breakout where he carried the Mets offensively for a few weeks. However, with the stress fracture in his back that breakout was never coming. He worked his tail off to get back and help the Mets down the stretch and into the postseason, but he just wasn’t ready yet. Overall, it was just a lost season for Duda. Hopefully, his back will be better in 2017, and he can help the Mets win the National League East again.
On the one hand, Loney really helped stabilize the first base position when he first came to the Mets. Before the All Star Break, he was hitting .277/.336/.438 with eight doubles, four homers, and 16 RBI. It wasn’t your typical first baseman’s production, but it was something you could live with especially when your other option at the time was Eric Campbell.
However, from there his season really fell off the cliff. After the All Star Break, Loney hit .257/.287/.369 with eight doubles, five homers, and 18 RBI. This production is even worse when you consider Terry Collins shielded Loney from left-handed pitching for most of the year. Couple that with Loney’s terrible defense and his almost refusal to stretch at first base, you saw why the Tampa Bay Rays of all teams paid him approximately $9 million to not play for them, and why no team was willing to give him a major league job before the season started.
There were many unknowns about Wright in 2016. We didn’t know if he could play, and if he could play, we didn’t know if he could produce. What we discovered was that he could still produce, but, unfortunately, he could not stay on the field. Wright would actually play in one less regular season game than he would last year before he needed season ending cervical fusion surgery (not spinal stenosis surgery). In the 37 games he did play, he hit .220/.350/.438 with eight doubles, seven home runs, and 14 RBI. They were decent numbers for the time he played, but unfortunately, he didn’t play enough.
Jose Reyes B-
The best thing you could say about Reyes was he wasn’t a distraction, nor were there any known repeated acts of domestic violence. If Reyes has become a better man, and if the domestic violence issues are all in the past, this season was a resounding success for him, and we should all wish him and his family well. With that noted, the grades are for the performance on the field.
The good with Reyes was despite his inexperience at third base, he actually adapted to the position quite well (even if UZR & DRS disagree). Furthermore, Reyes was a beast from the right-hand side of the plate. As a right-handed batter, Reyes hit .380/.456/.740 with six doubles, four homers, and 10 RBI. There was also a two week stretch in August (15th – 30th) where Reyes helped carry the Mets offensively hitting .385/.429/.538 with five doubles, one triple, one home run, and five RBI.
Unfortunately, that August stretch was about all Reyes did for the Mets from an offensive standpoint. Taking out that hot two week stretch, Reyes was a .226/.292/.411 hitter. Most of the reason for that was Reyes could not hit right-handed pitching. In fact, he hit .239/.293/.371 against right-handed pitching. Additionally, Reyes faded down the stretch hitting .234/.315/.396 over the final month of the season.
While you could say Reyes did an overall good job for the Mets, and he was a good presence in the clubhouse, you cannot come out of the 2016 season with any other impression than Reyes has regressed to the point where he is either a platoon option or a bench player.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.
With the 2016 World Series going seven games, today marks the deadline for Yoenis Cespedes to opt out of the remaining two years of his contract. Once Cespedes opts out of his contract like we all expect him to do, the danger of losing him in free agency will begin to be fully realized.
The Mets have had over a month to negotiate a deal with Cespedes. Over this time period, they were the only team that could negotiate with him, and yet, the Mets haven’t had any real contract discussions with him. Instead, the Mets have let everyone know they are pessimistic about re-signing him because he wants a five year deal. Then they began the process of putting out there the team is concerned about what type of effort Cespedes will give once he receives the five year contract he is looking to obtain in free agency.
This is the beginnings of the same smear campaign the Mets launched against Cespedes last offseason. As you remember last offseason, the Mets quickly moved on from Cespedes by signing Alejandro De Aza to platoon with Juan Lagares in center. It was only after Cespedes didn’t get the deal he was expecting in free agency that he and the Mets were able to negotiate the current deal Cespedes is opting out of today.
There will be no bat signals like De Aza this offseason. The Mets already have a glut of outfielders with Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and Lagares. The Mets also have Justin Ruggiano for the moment. With all of those pieces, the Mets are likely going to figure out how to piece those outfielders together. With that in mind, it is likely Cespedes is gone.
And if he is as good as gone, just let him go. He was great for the Mets for the last year and a half. He was a fan favorite, and he was a difference maker in the lineup. If the Mets believe they can build an offense without Cespedes much in the same fashion many of these same front office people did with Oakland after Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi left in free agency, more power to you. This decision right here is exactly why this front office is in place.
However, no matter what your decision, don’t smear the guy on the way out. You’re not changing the fans’ opinion on him, nor are you ever going to convince the fans you are not willing to have a payroll commensurate with the payroll a big market team should have.
With the smear campaign already in place, and the Mets not negotiating with Cespedes when they had the time, the handwriting is on the wall. We just do not know how many more days, weeks, or possibly months lie ahead before Cespedes signs elsewhere. No matter what happens from this point forward, the Mets front office better be right in how they handle this decision.
Last year, Ben Zobrist was one of the driving forces for a Royals team that beat the Mets in the World Series. This year, he was more of the same for a Cubs team that is on the verge of winning their first World Series since 1908. As luck would have it, Zobrist was one of the many “what if” decisions from the 2015 offseason that leads us to where the Mets are today.
Zobrist choosing the Cubs over the Mets led to a series of dominos falling. It led to the Mets choosing to trade Jon Niese for Neil Walker instead of looking to re-sign Daniel Murphy. That, coupled with Brandon Phillips rejected a trade, led Murphy to the Washington Nationals. Murphy would go on to have an MVP caliber season. Murphy’s season was more than enough to compensate for Bryce Harper having a down year, by his standards, and for Stephen Strasburg having yet another injury plagued year.
There were strange decisions along the way like the Mets initially passing on Yoenis Cespedes and signing Alejandro De Aza to platoon in center field with Juan Lagares. There was the multi-year deal with Antonio Bastardo despite him being an every other year reliever and Sandy Alderson’s poor history signing relievers to a multi-year deal with the Mets. Despite all of that, Cespedes re-signed, and the Mets once again looked like they were primed to return to the World Series in 2017.
Even with Cespedes’ return, the real hope was with the pitching. Now one could compete with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. If Steven Matz could join his teammates as an ace all the better. Even with this embarrassment of riches, the Mets still had Zack Wheeler returning from Tommy John surgery. By the way, waiting to close out those games was Jeurys Familia, who had already established himself as a great closer. As they said pitching wins championships, and the Mets had pitching in spades.
Early in the season, it worked out. Even with Harvey struggling, deGrom’s velocity not returning, and Wheeler’s return getting pushed back, the Mets were winning. Part of the reason why was Syndergaard taking the next step, Matz proving he belonged in the ace discussion, and deGrom adapting well to a lower velocity.
In April, the Mets took two out of three from the Indians in Cleveland. In a re-match of the NLCS, with a hot Cubs team looking for revenge, the Mets swept them out of Citi Field. Against this year’s World Series teams, the Mets were 7-3. This showed the Mets, with their pitching staff in tact, could beat the best of the best.
As we know, the pitching staff never did stay in tact. Furthermore, despite Walker having a good year, the Mets really missed Zobrist or Murphy as the offense was just one bat short to help carry a dinged up rotation to the finish line. Still, with Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman performing better than anyone could’ve anticipated, the Mets made the Wild Card Game. In reality, the Mets lost that game because Madison Bumgarner was able to go deeper into that game than Syndergaard was.
As we saw in the NLDS, the Giants put a scare into the Cubs by almost sending it back to Wrigley Field for a Game 5. With the Mets having Addison Reed and Familia, who knows if a Mets-Cubs series would have gone much differently.
Really, that is one of many “what if” situations from the 2016 season that was just disappointing to Mets fans who were dreaming of a World Series this year. As we saw last year, this Mets pitching staff can beat anybody. In fact, this Mets pitching staff can demoralize even the best offensive clubs. When the Mets staff was healthy and in tact this year, which was only a brief snapshot in time (if it really ever was the case), the Mets once again proved that this year. And with that, there is hope for 2017. As of the moment, the Mets can expect, Syndergaard, deGrom, Harvey, and Matz in the Opening Day rotation. There’s no team in baseball that can match that.
So while Mets fans are sitting there melancholy and wondering “what if” during what should prove to be a great World Series, just remember the Mets have the pitching to win in 2017. Hopefully, that thought will keep you warm throughout the winter.
The Arizona Fall League is a showcase league where Major League teams have the opportunity to not only allow some of their prospects to refine their skills, but also to play in front of other team’s front office personnel. There are six teams total and teams play a 30 game schedule. Here is an in-depth look at who the Mets have assigned to the Scottsdale Scorpions:
Goodwin has been the Mets first base coach since the 2012 season. Goodwin is also responsible for the Mets outfielders and base running instruction.
Goodwin was named as the Scottsdale Scorpions manager leading a team comprised of Mets, Angels, Giants, Phillies, and Yankees minor leaguers.
The 22-year old Cecchini was the Mets 2012 First Round draft pick and is Mets Minors sixth ranked Mets prospect.
Cecchini was recently added to the Mets 40 man roster, and he was a September call-up.
With the emergence of Amed Rosario, Asdrubal Cabrera having another year on his contract, and Cecchini having defensive issues at shortstop, Cecchini started the transition to second base late in the AAA season. Presumably, Cecchini should see the bulk of his playing time at second base at the Arizona Fall League.
At the plate, Cecchini is a gap-to-gap line drive hitter who has steadily improved and hit for more power at each stop of his minor league career. Last season, his first season in AAA, Cecchini hit .325/.390/.448 with 27 doubles, two triples, eight homers, and 55 RBI.
In his brief playing time with the Mets, we saw a player who was ready to hit major league pitching with the ability to drive the ball into the gap. As he ages and continues to fill-out some of his doubles may eventually turn into home runs.
The 21-year old Molina was signed by the Mets in 2011 as a 17 year old international free agent out of the Dominican Republic. If he is not added to the 40-man roster, Molina will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.
When Molina takes the mound for the Scorpions, he will be throwing his first pitch in the 2016 season. After a rough start to the 2015 season, which was in part due to a torn UCL in his pitching elbow. Molina initially tried rest to deal with the injury. However, after three ill-fated and ill-advised outings in August, he would be shut down for the season, and he would undergo Tommy John surgery on October 31st.
Like with any pitcher returning from Tommy John, it is difficult to ascertain what he will be when he finally takes the mound. Prior to his injury, Molina was a pitcher with poor mechanics, which may or may not have attributed to his injury.
When healthy, he had a mid 90’s fastball with an advanced changeup and slider for his age. As noted, his mechanics are still raw, and a result, he has a tendency to change his arm angles on each pitch, which would obviously telegraph the pitch to more experienced hitters.
In his last healthy, season, he dominated in the New York Penn League making 12 starts going 7-3 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9. For a comparison, he had the type of year Harol Gonzalez had this year with similar stuff at a similar age. However, Gonzalez doesn’t have the mechanical issues Molina did.
The 25 year old Oberste was the Mets 2013 seventh round draft pick. If he is not added to the 40-man roster, Oberste will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.
Oberste is coming off a mediocre season for AA Binghamton. While he had appeared to make strides offensively and defensively last year in St. Lucie, he seemed to regress this season in both aspects. In the field, he does not have the range or the arm for third base. With that in mind, he is best suited for first base, where he has shown himself to be an adequate defender. The main issue there is Oberste does not have the bat to play first base.
In his four year professional career, Oberste has not hit for power as evidenced by his career .399 slugging percentage. While he has averaged 22 doubles over the past three years, he has yet to hit double digit homers. Oberste’s bat could justifiably play in the majors at second or a utility position. However, Oberste hasn’t shown the range to prove he could effectively handle either role.
On the bright side, Oberste did have a strong finish to his 2016 campaign. Over July and August, Oberste hit .305/.376/.455 with six doubles, two triples, five homers, and 28 RBI. Overall, Oberste hit .283/.340/.409 with 21 doubles, two triples, nine homers, and 54 RBI for the 2016 season. Obviously, he did most of his damage in July and August. He needs to carry forward what he did those two months into the Arizona Fall League and beyond.
Unlike the other Mets prospect, Nido is a taxi squad player meaning he is only available to play on Wednesday and Saturday. The 22-year old Nido was the Mets 2012 eighth round draft pick. If he is not added to the 40-man roster, Nido will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.
No one made a bigger leap in the Mets organization this season than Nido. When drafted, Nido was seen as a good defensive catcher with a strong arm. While he was seen as a player with some offensive promise with some power, that did not prove to be true in his first four major league seasons.
This year Nido put the full package together winning the Florida State League batting title. In 90 games, Nido hit .320/.357/.459 with 23 doubles, two triples, seven homers, and 46 RBI. Behind the plate, he continued to be a good receiver who threw out 42% of base stealers. Nido has a bright future ahead of him, and he appears to be the catcher of the future.
The 23-year old Oswalt was the Mets 2012 7th round draft pick. If he is not added to the 40-man roster, Oswalt will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft.
Oswalt is a right-handed pitcher that once projected to be back-end rotation starter. However, Oswalt is being hampered by his mechanics and his inability to repeat his delivery. He was also hampered by his needing knee surgery back in 2013 which has slowed the former high school pitcher’s development. Another issue is Oswalt still has not developed his slider of changeup to the point where they can be an effective pitch for him.
Mostly, Oswalt relies upon a low 90s four-seam fastball and a high 80s two-seam fastball. With him mostly relying on those pitches, he made 13 starts and one relief appearance for St. Lucie going 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and a 9.0 K/9. If Oswalt is unable to develop his other pitches, he may be best suited to moving to the bullpen to see how well he could pitch putting maximum effort on his fastballs for an inning or two.
The 24-year old Roseboom was the Mets 2014 17th round draft pick. He was named Mets Minors Reliever of the Year.
The collegiate starter was immediately made a bullpen arm by the Mets organization despite his low 90s fastball. However, Roseboom was able to make a name for himself this season by not only combining that fastball with an effective slider and changeup, but also trust his stuff and pounding the strike zone.
Given his success, trades, and promotions, Roseboom found himself as the Binghamton Mets closer. As the B-Mets closer, Roseboom made 26 appearances converting 14 out of 15 saves. In that stretch, Roseboom had a 0.92 ERA and a 0.68 WHIP. Batters were only hitting .110 off of him. All season long, he showed the ability to get both righties and lefties out with righties hitting .189 off of him and lefties hitting .141 off of him. Ultimately, he is a platoon neutral left-hander who has the ability to pitch in high pressure and high leverage situations.
The 23-year old Stuart was the Mets 2013 sixth round draft pick. Another player that has to be added to the 40 this offseason to protect from the Rule 5 draft.
Stuart is an elite defensive outfielder that has speed on the bases as evidenced by him stealing 40 this season. The issue with Stuart is that he is a maddening offensive player. He went from hitting .265/.347/.407 in 71 games for Advanced A St. Lucie to hitting .201/.264/.261 in 43 games for AA Binghamton.
While Stuart has tremendous speed, he has not been able to use that speed to get extra base hits. This was the first season he has ever had double digit doubles, and he only had 12. While he has speed, he is still unable to take full advantage of it as he doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Ultimately, while the Mets should be fully willing to see how far Stuart’s speed and glove will carry him, if he does not start hitting, he may never make it to the major leagues.
Taylor was the Mets 2015 17th round draft pick.
Taylor was a dominant collegiate reliever, and he has proven to be a dominant reliever in the low levels of the minor leagues. Taylor does it with a low 90s fastball and a still developing slider. Basically, he is your prototype of what you think is a Mets pitcher. While he has been working to develop a changeup, it is not yet at the point where it is a reliable pitch for him in games.
Taylor is successful because he uses his fastball to generate an almost inordinate amount of groundballs. In his minor league career, he has a 1.92 ground ball out to fly ball out ratio. Taylor used this pitch to help him have a successful season as the St. Lucie Mets closer. In 45 games, Taylor converted 20 out of 23 save opportunities. Overall, Taylor was 4-5 with a 1.87 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
Tim Tebow
As many people know, Tebow was signed by the Mets after he put on a showcase for major league teams. At the showcase, the one skill Tebow showed more than anything else was he had natural power. Everyone saw that power in effect when he hit a home run in his first ever professional at-bat in the Instructional Leagues.
Both Tebow’s proponents and detractors will say he is in the Arizona Fall League to boost attendance and revenues for the Arizona Fall League. As we have seen in Tebow’s NFL and very short baseball career, he attracts a crowd, and assuredly, much like Michael Jordan did back in 1994, he will bring record numbers to the ballpark.
If you are a proponent, you point out how this is a good thing because more revenue and attention is always good for baseball. Furthermore, it is a good thing because it will bring more attention to the players who are playing in the games.
If you are a detractor, you believe this is a bad thing because it is merely a distraction which creates a circus like atmosphere that is not conducive to the true intentions of the Arizona Fall League which is prospect development.
One way Tebow fuels his detractors is that he will get playing time that should have gone to another prospect. However, those 30 games isn’t going to change a team’s opinion on a player. Whether or not Tebow deserves to be on the roster, he is there.
In his short duration in the Instructional Leagues, he did show some ability to play baseball. Given his profile and, yes his marketability, the Mets have every interest in seeing how far he could go as a professional baseball player. The Arizona Fall League will help them in that assessment.
Tebow and the other Mets get their chance starting today as the Scottsdale Scorpions visit the Glendale Desert Dogs at 2:35 PM. Tebow will indeed be in the lineup today to make his AFL debut.
As of right now, there is no published TV schedule for any of the Arizona Fall League games.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors
The first real playoff team Terry Collins managed with the Mets was in his first season with the team. It is hard to believe now, but that team was full of players that are now members, if not significant contributors, to teams that reached the postseason this year:
- Josh Thole – Toronto Blue Jays (not on the ALDS roster)
- Daniel Murphy – Washington Nationals
- Justin Turner – Los Angeles Dodgers
- David Wright – New York Mets (injured; not on the Wild Card Game roster)
- Jose Reyes – New York Mets
- Angel Pagan – San Francisco Giants
- Carlos Beltran – Texas Rangers
- Lucas Duda – New York Mets (injured; not on the Wild Card Game roster)
- R.A. Dickey – Toronto Blue Jays (not on the ALDS roster)
- Jon Niese – New York Mets (injured; not on the Wild Card Game roster)
Reading the names on that list, the two that immediately jump off the page are Murphy and Turner. They jump off the page for a myriad of reasons. The first reason is the two players are currently facing off against one another in the NLDS between the Dodgers and the Nationals. The series is tied at 1-1 in large part because Turner and Murphy have continued to be terrific postseason player.
Last year, Turner hit .526/.550/.842 with six doubles and four RBI against the Mets in the NLDS last year. Overall, in Turner’s postseason career, he is a .500/.538/.875 hitter with six doubles, one homer, and six RBI.
Murphy was the bat that helped carried the Mets to the World Series last year. In consecutive games, he hit homers off of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks. He would also homer off Fernando Rodney in what was a stretch of six straight games with a home run. In addtion to the homers, Murphy’s going from first to third on a walk in Game Five of the NLDS helped changed the complexion of that game. Additionally, up until the World Series, he had played exceptional defense (which admittedly is a rarity for him). So far in the NLDS, Murphy is 4-6 with a walk and two RBI. The first of the two RBI was the go-ahead RBI in Game 2 of the NLDS.
Between Turner and Murphy, the Mets had at one time two second baseman who have established themselves to be extraordinarily clutch and terrific postseason players. They were also two players the Mets were eager to replace.
Turner was surprisingly non-tendered a contract after a 2013 season where he seemed to solidify himself as a utility or platoon player (at a minimum). Instead, the Mets let him go with rumors circulating that he was a me-first player that didn’t hustle. He was also characterized as a player that wasn’t progressing because he liked the night scene a little too much. He would go to Los Angeles and blossom as a player. The Mets internal replacement? Eric Campbell.
When Murphy became a free agent, the Mets first aggressively pursued Ben Zobrist. After failing to land him, the Mets quickly moved to trade for Neil Walker. At no time did the Mets even make Murphy an offer. Unlike Turner, Walker was an actual replacement with Walker having a great year for the Mets before needing season ending back surgery. However, despite how good Walker’s year was, he still wasn’t anywhere near was good as Murphy was for the Nationals.
It should never have come as a surprise that both of these players were gone because the Mets, under Sandy Alderson’s reign as General Manager, never really wanted either player. If you go back to that 2011 season, the Opening Day second baseman was Rule 5 Draft pick, Brad Emaus. After a couple of weeks of him struggling, the Mets moved on and finally went to Murphy and Turner at second base. Murphy would get the bulk of the playing time there until Ike Davis‘ ankle injury that allowed them to play side-by-side. With Davis’ healing up and being ready for the 2012 season, the Mets proceeded with Murphy as the second baseman and Turner as the utility player. As we know, that lasted just two year.
Ultimately, the Mets made the postseason this year without either player. And yes, both players got their first chance with the Mets. Quite possibly, neither player would be in the position they are in now without the Mets giving them a chance to prove they are major league players. However, the Mets also made clear they didn’t want either player starting all the way back in 2011 when they anointed Emaus the everyday second baseman. Eventually, the Mets would get their chance to move on, and they took advantage of that opportunity.
With that, Murphy and Turner are in the NLDS after the Mets lost the Wild Card Game with T.J. Rivera starting at second base. One of those two will be in the NLCS with a chance to go to the World Series, a position the Mets thought they were going to be in as the season started. With all that in mind, it begs the question: how much differently would the Mets season have gone if they had kept either Turner or Murphy?
No matter how you look at it, the Jay Bruce acquisition has been a disaster for the Mets. In 40 games, Bruce has hit .176/.255/.289 with only four doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI. Bruce has gone from the major league leader in RBI to tied for 30th in the majors and 10th in the National League. He went from hitting .360 with runners in scoring position to .172 with the Mets.
Yesterday was rock bottom for him. He got mixed up with Curtis Granderson on a catchable flyball that lead to a Matt Kemp RBI single instead of a an out with Bruce having a chance to throw the runner out at home. At the plate, Bruce was 0-3. Worse yet, when the Mets were rallying to try the game, Terry Collins pinch hit Eric Campbell for him when the Braves brought in the lefty Ian Kroll to face him. Bruce was brought to the Mets just for these RBI situations. However, it has now gotten to the point that no one trusts him in those spots.
Bruce’s struggles have led some to suggest the Mets should decline Bruce’s $13 million option and give him his $1 million buy out. If the Mets were to do that, it would be a very poor decision.
Over his career, Bruce is a .247/.317/.465 hitter who averages 26 homers and 81 RBI. With Bruce turning 30 years old next year, there is every reason to believe Bruce’s struggles with the Mets are the result of a player struggling when joining a new team more than it is a Jason Bay falling apart when signing the Mets and playing his games under the old outfield configurations of Citi Field. So yes, there is reason to believe Bruce will return to form next season whether or not he is wearing a Mets uniform.
Admittedly, the Mets are going to have a glut of outfielders next year. Curtis Granderson is under contract for another year. The Mets figure to give Michael Conforto an everyday job next year. Juan Lagares should be healthy and could form a center field platoon with Brandon Nimmo. Furthermore, Justin Ruggiano, who mashed lefties in the short time he was with the Mets, is arbitration eligible. In addition to that, the Mets should do all they can to bring back Yoenis Cespedes in the even he opts out of his contract. Looking over this list, it’s hard to find a spot for Bruce in the Mets outfield.
The Mets could shift Bruce to first base. However, Lucas Duda, who has been a much better offensive player than Bruce, is still under team control. Additionally, with the overcrowded outfield, it is possible the Mets will seek to move Conforto to first base as has been recommended by Keith Hernandez. Overall, no matter where you look, there may not be room for Bruce. With that in mind, why pick up his option?
The reason is Bruce is an asset in what is going to be a weak free agent class. After Cespedes, the best free agent outfielders will be Ian Desmond, Mark Trumbo, and Jose Bautista. Each of these free agents have their own issues.
Desmond was a surprising All Star outfielder after struggling last year with the Nationals. However, overlooking his stats, Desmond has a number of issues. First, he is hitting .239/.287/.362 in the second half. Second, he’s showing himself to be a platoon bat hitting .272/.329/.442 against righties and .338/.373/.507 against lefties. Lastly, Desmond appears to be a product of Globe Life Park hitting .336/.374/.516 at home and .244/.309/.405 on the road.
Trumbo is essentially Bruce with vastly inferior defense. He also has the same issues as Desmond. He’s hitting .188/.266/.431 in the second half. He’s hitting .183/.232/.415 against lefties. He’s also hitting .257/.337/.552 at Camden Yards and .242/.282/.498 on the road.
Bautista is a 35 year old outfielder who has taken a step back this season. Over his last six seasons with the Blue Jays, he played at a superstar level hitting .268/.390/.555 while averaging 38 homers and 97 RBI. This year he is only hitting .258/.359/.433 with only 18 homers and 59 RBI.
Another team could look at these options and determine they would rather obtain Bruce who should have similar production at a reasonable $13 million price tag. Teams may also prefer to keep their first round pick rather than give it up for Desmond, Trumbo, or Bautista. Additionally, if Bruce bounces back from his struggles with the Mets, the acquiring team could make him a qualifying offer allowing them to obtain a compensatory first round pick in the event Bruce leaves them next offseason.
There’s the other issue. Cespedes is far from a lock to return. In that scenario, the Mets may feel compelled to find a player who can put up the power numbers Cespedes does. Like it or not, the Mets only real opportunity to replace Cespedes’ bat in the lineup will be a Bruce caliber bat. With Bruce most likely being the cheapest option as well as the option that doesn’t require the Mets to forfeit a first round pick, he is probably the Mets best Cespedes replacement (NOTE: no one can truly replace Cespedes).
So yes, Bruce has been a terrible with the Mets. However, that shouldn’t prevent the Mets from picking up his option as he is going to have value for someone next year. Just cross your fingers that team won’t be the Mets.
The Mets have 17 games remaining in their season, and at the moment, they still do not know who their second baseman is going to be on a game-to-game basis.
For most of the season, the answer was Neil Walker. Even with him struggling in the middle of the season, at a time where he couldn’t feel his toes, he was having the best season of his career. It was more than tying his career high in homers. He became a much better hitter from the right side of the plate. He was much improved defensively. He was a big part of the Mets. However, his season was over as he needed season ending surgery to address the herniated disc that prevented him from feeling his toes over the summer.
Fortunately, the Mets had a good backup option with Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson. Flores hit .306/.346/.542 with five homers and 19 RBI in August. He mostly did the damage against lefties, but he was also maturing as a hitter with him starting to hit against righties. Flores didn’t need to be overexposed against righties though because Johnson was having a resurgent season as a part time player with the Mets. In his 71 games with the Mets, Johnson has hit .269/.328/.473 with nine homers and 23 RBI in 73 games. The Mets very well could have rode this platoon the rest of the season. However, disaster struck again.
On Saturday, Flores slid headfirst into homeplate, and he injured his neck. He is having difficulty just taking batting practice. There is no telling when he will be able to fully warm up for a game let alone play again. This would be an opportune moment for Johnson to step up, but he has been slumping. Over the past two weeks, Johnson is hitting .188/.212/.313 with one homer and three RBI. While Johnson has been terrific all year for the Mets, it is quite possible that he has been overexposed playing semi-regularly after the Walker injury. Given Flores’ injury and Johnson’s slump, Terry Collins had to do something drastic, and that was starting T.J. Rivera last night.
Rivera had not started a game since the September 5th finale for AAA Las Vegas where he overtook Brandon Nimmo for the Pacific Coast League batting title. Rivera answered the call. He would make three terrific plays in the field. The third one in the ninth got overlooked because Daniel Murphy busted it out of the box to beat the throw, and because, as usual, James Loney didn’t stretch. However, it was at the plate where Rivera really stood out. Rivera came through in the clutch time and again delivering in both of his RBI opportunities with a two out RBI single in the first and a sacrifice fly in the fifth. When there were two outs in the top of the 10th, Rivera delivered with a home run off an 0-2 pitch from Mark Melancon, who had not allowed a home run since July 17th. With this game, Rivera made a case for himself on a Mets team that does not have an answer to second base right now.
This is unexpected as many thought this opportunity would never come. During the season, the Mets gave chances to Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly first while Rivera was thinking of new ways to try to get called up to the majors. The Mets would have to go through a rash of infield injuries for him to even be considered. He waited so long, in part, because he doesn’t fit the Mets profile. He’s an aggressive contact hitter at the plate. He’s not working the count. He’s finding his pitch, and he’s going to drive it somewhere.
So no, at no point during the first 140+ games this season did anyone, especially the Mets, think that Rivera would ever be the solution at second base. However, the Mets are looking for an answer at the position right now, and Rivera stepped in and helped the Mets win a game they lose any other time in their 54 year history. It really might just be time for Rivera.