Musings
In an overarching report on the New York Mets team culture by Mike Puma of the New York Post, there was a focus on Justin Verlander. Long story short, it didn’t click.
While people have their takeaways from the article, the biggest was Verlander’s frustrations with Puma writing, “Verlander often complained about the Mets’ analytics department, which he deemed inferior to the one that served him in Houston.”
Going back to 2017, Verlander was still a very good pitcher for the Detroit Tigers. He was 34, and in previous seasons, there was a dip in his performance. Between that, his contract, and the Tigers rebuilding, it was time to move him.
After going to the Houston Astros, Verlander became an ace again winning two Cy Youngs. Verlander became a Met because of money. As we saw, Houston still wanted him.
It didn’t work for Verlander in his brief time with the Mets. Part of that was injury. Another part, according to Verlander, is the Mets have areas they need to improve.
Maybe it was constructive. Maybe it was harsh. Certainly, Verlander rankled some feathers. In the end, the only takeaway is the Mets have work to do.
Look, the Astros are the best in the business. You can also make cases for the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers. You can’t make that case with the Mets.
The biggest issue is the Wilpons. They set the organization well back on that perspective, and it takes time to get out from under that.
Another issue is Billy Eppler. Under his direction, the Los Angeles Angels were never an analytically driven or analytically forward thinking organization.
The end result is Steve Cohen is trying to get the Mets up to speed with a GM who really isn’t well versed in the direction of the field of baseball analytics.
The Mets may know some of the things they don’t know and need to investigate. The bigger issue is they don’t know what they don’t know. Verlander made that apparent.
Looking deeper than that, the Mets don’t know what areas the more analytically driven teams are even pursuing. That’s exactly where the Mets need to close the gap.
If nothing else, Verlander let the Mets know where they are lacking. It’s now incumbent on the organization to close that gap, and more importantly forge ahead in the areas other teams have not yet embarked.
Adam Ottavino didn’t have it. That’s no surprise with him having a 7.36 ERA on no days rest. Opposing batters are hitting .276/.400/.690 against him.
Now, that should’ve been reason enough for Buck Showalter to use Ottavino to save a two run lead. However, to be fair here, it’s not like the Mets really have a plethora of options. In fact, you could argue they’re complete devoid of options.
Seiya Suzuki hit a lead-off homer. Jeimer Candelario walked, and he went to second on a balk when Ottavino forgot how many times he threw over. After Mike Tauchman walked, Showalter went to Phil Bickford.
In a trade deadline where the Mets sold heavy, they obtained Bickford and Adam Kolarek from the Los Angeles Dodgers. The reason is the Mets needed arms, and the Dodgers were parting with relievers having poor seasons.
Bickford had a 5.14 ERA over 36 appearances with the Dodgers. He had an 86 ERA+ and 4.39 FIP despite a strong 10.3 K/9. The reason is he was walking too many batters.
His brief Mets tenure hasn’t been much better. He’s allowed at least a run in three of four appearances.
The worst of it was his allowing three earned in 1/3 of an inning against the Baltimore Orioles. Even with that, there’s some promise with Bickford.
Per Baseball Savant, he generates a high spin on his fastball. With his fastball excellent extension, he has a high whiff and strikeout rate. The issue is location with his high walk rate and how hard he’s been hit this season.
We’ve seen it implode, but against the Chicago Cubs, we saw how effective he could be.
He came into a very difficult spot. Two on, no outs, Mets up by one. After a Nick Madrigal sac bunt, the tying run was 90 feet away with the go-ahead run in scoring position.
He then settled in, and he showed how he can over power batters. It started by striking out Christopher Morel.
He was careful to Nico Hoerner issuing a walk. With Hoerner having good numbers against Bickford, it was the right move.
With two outs and the bases loaded, Bickford struck out Ian Happ to end the game. Neither Morel nor Happ had a chance.
With that, Bickford earned another opportunity. Another one after that. Mets can play it out from there.
Edwin Díaz is still on the IL even if he’s pushing to return. Bickford is under team control next year and not arbitration eligible until after 2024.
Bickford is in his prime. He had a great 2021 season, and he’s a few tweaks from getting back to that point. On a night where he dominated to earn his second career save, you think Jeremy Hefner fixed him.
Maybe not. Who knows? All we do know at this point is Bickford came into a big spot and earned a save. That’s something to build on at a time the Mets are looking for pieces for 2024.
Put Bickford in the closer role. See how he fares. See if you found another late inning option for next year.
Back in June, it was noted here just how badly Brett Baty was struggling. Unfortunately, it keeps getting worse for Baty, and we are at the point where he has completely regressed.
On the season, Baty is hitting .216/.289/.331 with 11 doubles, seven homers, and 27 RBI. Remember, over his first 13 games, he was hitting .333/.391/.524.
Overall, he’s at a -0.6 WAR, 73 OPS+, and a 77 wRC+. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, he would be the worst third baseman in baseball by a fairly wide margin.
The argument in the beginning was, well, at least he’s good defensively. That was true when he was a 2 OAA in June. It’s now August, and Baty is a -4 OAA.
By wRC+, he’s the worst hitter at the position. By OAA, he’s the the third worst defensive third baseman. In total, he’s the worst at the position in the majors.
In all honesty, when Baty was first a prospect in the Mets farm system, this result was a real concern. The thought was with his size he may eventually need to move off third. At the plate, his ground ball rate was too high with a lot of swing-and-miss potential.
That said, he corrected all of that. He was hitting line drives instead of grounders. He became a good defender. He got to the point where the Mets third baseman of the future needed to be the third baseman of the present.
From there, everything has gone wrong.
As noted, his defense has been very bad for two months. He has a 27.7 K%, the worst he’s ever had in full season ball. He has a 51.3 GB%. He’s a ground ball machine who strikes out too much.
The Mets looking to demote him now is just inane. The damage is done. In fact, instead of demoting him, the Mets should be taking a hard look at their coaching staff.
What has Joey Cora been doing to actively assist in making Baty significantly worse at third? What have Jeremy Barnes and Eric Hinske been going with Baty that we see his ground ball and strikeout rates worsen to this extent?
Mostly, what has Buck Showalter done to help develop Baty? Put another way, why has Baty regressed under the tutelage of Showalter and his coaching staff?
Before the fire sale, Steve Cohen said he puts the blame for the season failures on the players and not the coaching staff or GM. Looking at Baty’s regression, it does appear the coaches have more than their fair share of the blame.
The fact Baty got worse requires a multi-faceted analysis. That analysis needs to start with what Syracuse did right and what Showalter and his coaches did wrong.
The New York Mets can call it what they want, but they had a fire sale where they overhauled the organization. Finally, they built the type of farm system which can create the sustainable winner Steve Cohen coveted when he first purchased the team.
Saying the quiet part out loud, the next step in the Mets plan is to lose enough games to get a top six pick in the draft. Put in other words, the Mets are tanking. They need to tank because if they have a pick outside the top six they will drop 10 spots in draft position due to their payroll.
For the Mets, they now have to decide how they want to tank. Do they want to tank while failing to put a representative and competitive product on the field? Do they want to best use this time to get get a look at and develop young players? Or, do they just want to be horrendous and go through the motions?
Checking into the Mets series finale against the Kansas City Royals, Buck Showalter had his old Baltimore Orioles buddy DJ Stewart batting second. Rafael Ortega was in center. It was at least the first game since the trade deadline Danny Mendick, who played eight of the last nine, wasn’t in the starting lineup.
Stewart and Mendick are 29 years old. Ortega is 32. Up until this point in their careers, none of these players have been able to stick on Major League rosters. Given their age, it is fair to question whether that will ever happen .
Being fair to Stewart, he has made the most of his second chance. You could argue he could carve out a role in the Mets for the next year or two. That goes double with Daniel Vogelbach likely being gone after this year. However, you cannot say the same of Mendick or Ortega.
For an example of what the Mets should be doing, we can look to Jonathan Araúz. He just turned 25, and he was once thought of as a top prospect with the Boston Red Sox organization. There is real value in getting a long look at him to determine if he has a future with the Mets in a utility role.
There is dignity and a purpose getting a long look at Araúz. The same could be said about taking a look at Ronny Mauricio and letting him work with the Mets coaching staff to let them weigh in on whether his future is at second or any one of the three outfield positions.
Luke Ritter is having a big year in the minors, and he will be Rule 5 eligible again this offseason. Jose Peroza will also be Rule 5 eligible. There are others in the organization. Arguably, one of these two could be taken in the draft.
If you may be in a position where you are forced to add them, why not take a look now? The same could be said of some relievers like Dedniel Núñez, who was already once taken in the Rule 5 Draft.
The overriding point here is the Mets have young prospects having big years. There is nothing wrong with giving them a look at the Major League level. If they are drowning, send them down, and let them be better for the experience. You can get an evaluation from the Major League coaching staff. If you’re not impressed, you have more information at your disposal as you move on from them.
Overall, you are going to lose as many games (perhaps more) than you will be with Mendick, Ortega, and Stewart. However, you will be furthering your organizations goals. Mostly, you are giving your fans something to see who have stuck with you during this disappointing season, and you hope will be there next year as you change course from your past offseason strategies.
On June 28, Steve Cohen had a press conference to address the New York Mets disappointing season. He let everyone know that while the fans (and some of the media) believed Billy Eppler and Buck Showalter should have been fired for their part in the season, Cohen assured us that is not the way he planned on running the Mets as a business. The money quote was:
I’m a patient guy. Everyone says, “Fire this person, fire that person.” But I don’t see that as a way to operate.
If you want to attract good people to this organization, the worst thing you can do is be impulsive and win the headline for the day. Overall, over time, you’re not going to attract the best talent. You’re not going to want to work for somebody who has a short fuse. Listen, I know fans, they want something to happen. I get it. But sometimes, you can’t do it because you have long-term objectives.
The gist of what Cohen was saying is no one wants to come work for you if you’re going to be impulsive in how you do business. He literally said this is not the best way to attract the best talent to your organization. Now, we’re only led to believe this applied to the GM and manager but not the players.
Justin Verlander started the season on the IL. In his first seven starts with the Mets, he was not great to say the least. He was 2-3 with a 4.85 ERA. He had allowed six runs to the Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies. Certainly, given his age, you did start to wonder if he was ever going to be anything resembling Verlander.
However, he turned it on and has looked every bit the future Hall of Famer he is. Over his last nine starts, he is 4-2 with a 1.95 ERA. He was flat out dominant over his last three starts allowing two earned over 19 1/3 innings.
While this season was a massive disappointment for the team, Verlander was looking like the ace the Mets hoped they were getting. With that ace in place, the Mets were well positioned to have a contending team in 2024. However, instead, the Mets decided to tear it all down, ad part of that was sending Verlander back to the Astros. They may not want to call it a rebuild or fire sale, but they’re acting like it is.
In fact, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported Max Scherzer was informed by Cohen and Eppler the team was now going to focus on contending in 2025 or 2026. Ironically, one of the decision makers for that process was Eppler who failed to build the type of bullpen depth that was needed in 2023 or even in 2022.
Of note, Cohen was fully behind Eppler, the same GM who could not win with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. On Ohtani, Scherzer (as well as the moves this trade deadline) all but confirmed the Met would not be players for perhaps the best free agent to ever hit the market.
Cohen speaks of wanting to attract the best talent, but he’s sending it out the door while keeping the mediocre at best talent at the helm to make franchise altering decisions. Remember, Scherzer and Verlander have won. Eppler never has, and you can start to argue he never will.
We can all have a real conversation about whether this was the right path for the Mets as an organization. Certainly, with the influx of top 100 talent, you could see these moves have the potential to pay dividends ten-fold. After all, the R.A. Dickey was a great trade which helped the Mets, but then again, we also remember Alex Ochoa.
Overall, Cohen is gambling on Eppler getting a lot right when he’s batting below the Mendoza Line for his career as a GM. Cohen has opted to back Epper and Showalter who have never won a thing while sending out the guys who have won and know what it takes to win.
Cohen sold us a vision for organizational stability as a path to getting the people here needed not only to win a World Series, but also to have sustained success. A little over a month later the stability is gone with the future Hall of Famers walking about the door with players like Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo publicly questioning what the direction of the franchise will be.
Cohen has all the money in the world to make the Mets contenders. He did that in 2022, and with some luck, that might’ve been the case in 2023. Certainly, he could’ve and should’ve done that in 2024. Instead, we get Eppler’s vision which failed with the Angels and failed this year.
When the New York Mets signed Max Scherzer, there were visions of at least one World Series title. Scherzer leaves without so much as an NLDS appearance, and he has his share of the blame there.
Still, the Scherzer signing was great for the Mets.
Early on and for most of 2022, Scherzer was exactly the co-ace the Mets thought they were getting. Actually, he was their sole ace as Jacob deGrom missed most of that season.
In 23 starts, he was 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.908 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9, and a 10.7 K/9. He had a 167 ERA+ and a 2.62 FIP. These are terrific numbers.
However, we didn’t exactly see it as such. Part of the reason was the usually durable Scherzer was nicked up all season and battled an oblique injury. The other was how he finished the year.
When the Mets needed him against the Braves to help them win the NL East, he took the loss after allowing four over 5 2/3. That game and the sweep pushed the Mets into hosting the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card Series.
Scherzer got the ball in Game 1, and he was terrible. The Padres were up 3-0 after two, and Scherzer would impose in the fifth. All told. He allowed seven over 4 2/3.
The belief is Scherzer was hurt but was pitching through it. Whatever the result, he was ineffective in his two biggest starts. That said, he was a driving force for the Mets winning 101 games.
The 2023 season didn’t work out for him. He again dealt with injuries despite taking steps to try to avoid it. There was also the nonsense suspension for “using sticky substances.”
Through 19 starts, he was 9-4 with a 4.01 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9, and a 10.1 K/9. He allowed more homers than ever. He mostly struggled.
In 2022, he was a driving force for that postseason team. In 2023, Scherzer was a reason why the Mets faltered. Despite that, he wanted to talk to the team about his and the team’s future.
Whether or not the conversation ever took place, Scherzer was traded to the Texas Rangers. In exchange, the Mets received prospect Luisangel Acuña, the younger brother of Ronald Acuña, Jr.
Acuña is a top 100 prospect, who is closer to top 50. He is probably the Mets top prospect, and he should reach the majors next year. It’s an incredible get.
At this point, we can say Scherzer’s Mets career was disappointing. He didn’t help the Mets win a World Series, and Scherzer had his share of the blame by failing in his two biggest starts.
However, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a good signing. In fact, it was a great signing.
Because the Mets signed Scherzer, they got an ace in 2022 who helped lead them to 101 wins and the top Wild Card spot. The following season, they were able to flip him for a top 100 prospect while freeing up nearly $20 million towards the 2024 payroll.
Put another way, the Mets are far better off as an organization for signing Scherzer. They made the postseason in 2022, and they flipped him for a top prospect.
The Scherzer signing made the Mets better. We all wanted better, but it didn’t. Instead they got a playoff run and a top prospect. In the end, that’s what maker this a great signing
We knew the New York Mets trading David Robertson was coming. After all, Robertson was on a one year deal, and with the Mets completely out of it, he needed to be moved at the trade deadline. With closers traditionally netting good returns, he was a must move.
The shock was that Robertson was moved to the Miami Marlins. The Marlins are surprisingly still in the heat of the race to the postseason. They’re also never a team you think would be adding money at the deadline. All that said, there they were making a huge move at the trade deadline.
For the Mets, the return was a bit of a shock. Perhaps, that is a big reason why much of the reaction has been misplaced.
First thing we need to ignore is the prospect rankings. Those rankings were made before the season, and they do not account for the progress prospects have made, and none of them account for the 2023 draft.
Another important note here is no top 10 or 20 prospect in an organization is the same. A top 10 prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers system is a whole lot different than being a top 10 prospect in the San Diego Padres system. The Dodgers are loaded, and the Padres aren’t.
An example there is when the Mets traded Michael Fulmer to the Detroit Tigers in 2015 for Yoenis Cespedes. At the time of the trade, the talk was the Mets traded a prospect who was rated outside their top 15 prospects.
Well, that wasn’t exactly true. As we discovered soon thereafter, Fulmer was vaulting up lists and would be a top 100 prospect, and he would actually become the Tigers fifth best prospect. The following season he would be the American League Rookie of the Year. This is all a long winded way of saying ignore prospect rankings and generally see what the discussion is on the prospects.
With Marco Vargas and Ronald Hernandez, the Mets got very high ceiling players. Both make a great deal of contact, don’t strike out, have great plate disciple, and they have very real power potential. On one or both, we may one day be talking about how the Mets absolutely stole these two prospects from the Marlins.
These are prospects who typically are thrown into a deal to try to pry a major leaguer away from a team. An example here was the Mets jumping into the Joe Musgrove trade by sending Endy Rodriguez to the Pittsburgh Pirates so they could get Joey Lucchesi from the San Diego Padres. We have also seen the Mets send Felix Valerio to the Milwaukee Brewers to help grab Keon Broxton.
Put another way, the Mets have been throwing prospects like Vargas and Hernandez away for years for bit players. Now, they’re using a big trade chip to get prospects of this caliber (perhaps even better than that).
Another thing that immediately stood out was this really didn’t address the Mets organizational needs. The team needs pitchers and outfielders at the upper levels of the minors who can contribute in the next year or two at the major league level. The Marlins did not have the outfielders that fit that bill, but they did have the pitching.
Certainly, there were other teams out there who had what the Mets needed. That said, we don’t know if those teams were actively pursuing Robertson, and if those types of prospects were even put on the table.
There are some who like the return for the Mets, and there are many who don’t. It does seem a little underwhelming, but ultimately, the trade is going to be adjudged by the Mets player development’s ability to make Vargas the type of prospect the Mets desperately need him to be.
All that said, this was the type of trade a team makes when they are tearing it down for a rebuild. With Justin Verlander reportedly being shopped at the deadline, perhaps that’s what the Mets are doing. Maybe not.
With the Mets failing the way they have this season, there is much uncertainty surrounding the future of the team. This does not seem to be a team set for a complete rebuild, which makes this type of trade stand out. In the end, the Mets have a lot of work to do before the trade deadline and even more this offseason. Whatever the case, their system is better for having Vargas and Hernandez in it.