Musings
Sure, the New York Mets inexplicably blew a 5-0 first inning lead to the lousy Pittsburgh Pirates, but it’s still a great day for the organization. The reason? They drafted Kumar Rocker!
With the 10th overall pick, the @Mets select @VandyBoys right-hander Kumar Rocker, No. 6 on the Top 250 Draft Prospects list.
Watch live: https://t.co/oDjcuCzH7G pic.twitter.com/zZ1eqVKuGl
— MLB Draft (@MLBDraft) July 12, 2021
Before the year, Rocker was expected to be the first overall pick. For various reasons, including perceived signability as well as a late year dip in velocity, Rocket moved down the draft board. Still, with there were rumors it could happen, no one really expected him to fall to 10 where the Mets were drafting.
Still, that didn’t stop the Mets from doing their due diligence. Tommy Tanous, Marc Tramuta, and other Mets scouts went to see Rocker pitch. They saw a pitcher they thought had elite stuff and an elite makeup. They saw someone they didn’t expect to be available.
The Mets get an absolutely electric arm in Kumar Rocker with the #10 pick.
— Michael Mayer (@mikemayer22) July 12, 2021
Despite everyone passing, they weren’t fooled, and they made the best pick possible. It’s what they did when they grabbed Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto, David Peterson, Jared Kelenic, and others.
Simply put, the Mets know how to draft. They’ve become great at it, and on a day like today, when a player unexpectedly falls to them, they know exactly what to do.
That was to grab an exceptionally talented pitcher. As noted by MLB Pipeline, he had quite the repertoire with a developing change and more:
He usually operates at 93-96 mph with his heater, which can reach 99 and features some run and sink but also can get flat at times, though his velocity sat in the low 90s for three weeks early in the season. He notched all 19 of his whiffs in his no-hitter with his slider, a mid-80s beast with power and depth that grades as plus-plus, and he also has a low-80s curveball with more vertical break.
What Rocker will be is anyone’s guess. That said, he has ace potential, and he’s with a Mets organization which develops pitching quite well. Just ask Jacob deGrom and Seth Lugo.
In the first of seven straight games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the New York Mets got a good luck at popular trade target Adam Frazier. He certainly impressed going 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI.
It was the latest in what has been an All-Star season for Frazier. In 86 games, he’s hitting .328/.397/.464 with 26 doubles, four triples, four homers, and 29 RBI.
Frazier has a 2.6 WAR and a 138 wRC+. Among MLB second basemen, his WAR ranks fifth and his wRC+ ranks second. That’s extremely impressive, and his having another year of control makes him all the more enticing.
That said, the Mets shouldn’t look to add him at the trade deadline.
First, there’s the defense issue. Frazier would just be another second baseman who can’t play third to the mix. Maybe this will finally be the move which forces Jeff McNeil to third, which would be great, but it’s doubtful considering the Mets stubborn refusal to move McNeil off second.
If Frazier is slotted for second, it’s difficult to tell how he’d play. While he’s had elite numbers some years, he’s been terrible in others. This year, he’s a -2 DRS and -1 OAA.
On the defensive front, it’s possible the Mets believe their shifting and positioning could help Frazier play like an elite defender again. Seeing the Mets defensive turnaround this season, we shouldn’t doubt them.
With Frazier, the bigger issue is the bat. Yes, he’s having a great year. However, when you dig into the numbers, you see a player in line for a regression towards the 100 wRC+ player he was entering the season.
Frazier entered the year with a career .303 BABIP, and he’s at a .363 this season. Going to Baseball Savant, his barrels and exit velocities are very low. Actually, as luck would have it, they’re the worst of his career.
These are not the numbers of a player having career best power hitting numbers or for that matter, a career year.
Now, there are some good things with Frazier. His line drive rate is up, and his plate discipline has improved. He’s also a tough strikeout.
Taken all together, Frazier is an absolutely improved player at the plate, but he’s not as good as he is now. Frazier isn’t a good defender now, but he has been, and the right team can get more from him.
The obvious caveat is if the price is right, the Mets should look to add him. He’s a clear upgrade. That said, the cost will probably outweigh his value, and to some extent, Frazier is quite duplicative to what the Mets already have in Luis Guillorme, Jose Peraza, and Jonathan Villar.
It would seem the Mets attention is better focused elsewhere to address the real third base and bullpen vacancies. They also don’t want to be in a position to pay a premium price for a player due to regress both in the second half and next season.
Before the game between the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals, the Nationals social media team put forth their case for Max Scherzer to be named an All-Star. Basically, they tried to say Scherzer is better than Padres All-Star Yu Darvish:
Yu Darvish is an excellent pitcher and absolutely deserves to be an All-Star.
.
.
.
.
By the transitive property of equality…#Scherzday // #NATITUDE pic.twitter.com/1GMK6T7euT— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) July 8, 2021
Well, things didn’t go well for Scherzer after this. The Nationals ace blew an 8-0 lead. The worst of it was when Padres ROOKIE RELIEVER Daniel Camarena hit a grand slam.
This isn't just a grand slam.
And it isn't just a grand slam BY A PITCHER.
It's a grand slam, BY A PITCHER, FOR HIS FIRST CAREER HIT.#SlamDiego pic.twitter.com/goraKjGanH
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 9, 2021
Lets repeat that: A rookie reliever hit a grand slam off of Scherzer. That just doesn’t happen.
Well, it did, and as a result, the case for Taijuan Walker being an All-Star is now all the stronger. Of course, this has nothing to do with the first place Mets not having an All-Star when Jacob deGrom will not be in attendance in Colorado.
After last night’s Scherzer debacle, Walker’s FIP lead over Scherzer is 3.07 to 3.32. His ERA lead is 2.44 to 2.66. His ERA+ lead is 158 to 140. His not giving up homers to rookie relievers lead is 0 to 1.
Overall, Walker should’ve been an All-Star the first go-around, and his case is all the stronger today. Hopefully, the right decision is made with Walker being added to the All-Star team.
Former New York Mets great Howard Johnson took to social media seeking help after his grandson suffered a horrific accident. His foot got run over by a lawnmower, and as a result, part of his foot was severed.
The medical bills are and will continue to be extensive. There is a Go Fund Me set-up to collect the monies needed. At the moment, roughly one-third of the money has been raised. There’s the caveat the fees could be more substantial than anticipated.
To the extent you can help, please do. This isn’t about a former Mets player we adored. It’s about a little boy who has been severely injured and a family who desperately needs your help.
With the New York Mets in first place and there is earnest discussion over what the Mets should add at the trade deadline. With all the injuries, the discussion has centered on starting pitching.
Before delving into potential names, the first consideration should be the Mets only need four starters to get them through the postseason. With respect to that, they have a phenomenal foundation with
By ERA, that’s the best 1-2-3 in the majors. That’s especially impressive considering they are missing their second and third best pitchers in Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard.
Now, it’s a dangerous game waiting for injured players to return. That goes double for pitchers. For example, we’ve already seen Carrasco’s and Syndergaard’s return dates pushed back repeatedly.
However, on that note, Carrasco is throwing batting practice, and he’s throwing in the mid 90s. After another session, he may be set for a rehab assignment.
Carlos Carrasco threw BP to live batters from Citi Field this afternoon ? pic.twitter.com/YoW8MBqnra
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) July 6, 2021
If Carrasco continues on this path, he will have at least one start in the majors prior to the trade deadline. If he’s back in the rotation by then, there’s no sense in adding another starter.
As we’ve seen, Tylor Megill has the stuff to at least be a five and fly starter. There’s also David Peterson and Corey Oswalt, who could be available soon after their IL stints. Again, we shouldn’t count on them, but they’re part of the equation. That’s nothing to say of Syndergaard who MAY return in September in some capacity.
In terms of the fifth starter spot, they have the numbers to address it. We should keep in mind whoever that starter is, it’s unlikely they’ll be on the postseason roster, at least not as a starter.
To that point, if the Mets are looking to add pitching at the trade deadline, perhaps they should be looking more at relievers. They’ve already seen an incredible number of injuries on that front, and Miguel Castro, who was supposed to be a key piece of the bullpen, has lost his effectiveness.
Of course, if Carrasco has yet another set-back, the Mets should pivot. Moreover, if the right deal presents itself, the Mets shouldn’t object to improving the roster. That said, the team has much bigger holes in the bullpen and at third base, and after what Brodie Van Wagenen did to the roster, they have somewhat limited resources to add at the trade deadline.
Taking everything into account, as of right now, the Mets focus shouldn’t be on adding a starter. It should be on building the best possible postseason roster.
One in the ways things have been very different under Steve Cohen is handling rain outs. Whereas the Wilpons collected money for a few hours, Cohen’s Mets have typically called games well in advance thereby preventing fans from even having to leave their houses to come to Citi Field.
That is typically the case, but it wasn’t on Tuesday. No, the Mets absolutely refused to call the game. Fans were there for two-and-a-half hours before the Mets finally relented and called the game. Of course, there were some “fans” who were upset.
Make fans sit through 3 hour rain delay…wait 13 minutes between the owner tweeting the game has been postponed & letting the fans know in the building. Top it all off with a SPLIT Admission 7 inning Double Header hours later. The Wilpons would be proud of this embarrassing night
— Evan Roberts (@EvanRobertsWFAN) July 7, 2021
While it seems excessive, there was very good reason for the Mets handling of the situation. First and foremost, as we saw, the Mets actually believed there was a window where they could play the game.
Looks like weather will improve between 8-9pm
— Steven Cohen (@StevenACohen2) July 6, 2021
Literally every time the grounds crew comes out, the rain intensifies. It's hilarious.
— Jerry Beach (@JerryBeach73) July 7, 2021
More than the belief they could actually play, there was a more overarching reason. Playing the game meant the Mets could maximize the amount of times Jacob deGrom pitched.
If deGrom pitched on Tuesday, he would be ready to pitch again on Sunday. That’s two starts heading into the break. With him starting Sunday, he would then be excused from the All-Star Game. That’s an important consideration with deGrom dealing with aches and pains for about a month.
This would have also permitted deGrom to pitch on Friday, which is the first game after the break. That would’ve meant deGrom would pitch three times over the Mets next seven games.
If you’re the Mets, you have to do absolutely everything you can to make that happen. deGrom is the best pitcher in the game, and he gives the Mets their best chance to win.
Now, deGrom is going to start just one more time before the break. He won’t be excused from the All-Star Game, and if he pitches in the game, he may not be set to pitch on Friday.
Overall, deGrom not pitching Tuesday hurts the Mets. They knew that, and they did all they could to play. While it’s frustrating for the fans (who were taken care of in some capacity), it was the right call.
When you can pitch deGrom, you pitch him. You do everything you can to make it happen. The.Mets did that, and they deserve to be commended for it.
Back in 2006, the New York Mets were in first place, but they were running out of starting pitchers. As a result, they called up John Maine.
Maine was a hard throwing right-handed pitcher who never quite looked ready for the majors, at least he didn’t in Baltimore. However, with Rick Peterson and Willie Randolph, something clicked.
Maine was able to use his fastball and slider to earn a permanent spot in the Mets rotation. Maine began to really force the issue at the end of his July 8 start.
Maine had allowed a go-ahead homer in the sixth before retiring the final two batters of the inning. That started a stretch of 26 innings. By that time, a Mets team looking to add a starter felt comfortable balking at the steep prices, and of course, they had to pivot due to Duaner Sanchez’s cab ride.
Maine would have a strong 2006 season going 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA, 122 ERA+, 1.113 WHIP, and a 7.1 K/9.
What ensued was a crazy postseason where he was an emergency replacement for an injured Orlando Hernandez right before Game 1 of the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Maine was terrific that postseason including his picking up a win in Game 6 of the NLCS.
What Maine did that season is difficult to emulate, but as previously noted, Megill is emulating that right now. We saw another sign in his last start where he went toe-to-toe with Brandon Woodruff over five innings.
Like Maine in 2006, Megill is only in the majors due to injuries, and he may be here to stay because of them. Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard have yet to pitch this season, and their time tables keep getting pushed back.
Joey Lucchesi had season ending Tommy John surgery. Jordan Yamamoto is on the 60 day IL. David Peterson has hit the IL. The end result has been Megill rushed to the majors and getting his opportunity, and the Mets suddenly and somewhat unexpectedly being in a position where they’ll need to look to add a starter at the trade deadline.
With every start, Megill is alleviating those concerns. Working with Jeremy Hefner and Luis Rojas, he’s taken his game to another level. Working predominantly with his fastball and slider, he increasingly looks like a Major League starter.
So far, he’s made three starts. He hasn’t registered a decision yet, but he has improved with each start. He has a 104 ERA+ and a very impressive 11.9 K/9. That’s even with him walking a couple of batters more than you’d like . . . much like Maine.
With his poise, repertoire, demeanor, and this coaching staff, there’s no reason to believe Megill won’t continue to improve. With each successive start, he’ll make the case he not only should be a part of this rotation, but he can be a part of a World Series contending team.
Again, that’s where the Mets were in 2006. John Maine gave them some comfort they could address other needs because Maine stabilized the rotation. When the pitchers didn’t heal like the Mets had hoped, and others pitchers got injured, Maine had a strong postseason giving the Mets every opportunity to win the pennant.
Megill is showing he can be that type of pitcher. He can be the stopgap. He can be the pitcher who convinces the Mets they don’t need to add pitching at the deadline. He can have a real impact this postseason.
Well, it’s July 1, meaning this is yet another year the New York Mets make their installment payment to Bobby Bonilla on the 25 year buy out. It’s also the day people try to rush to be funny.
Truth be told, Bonilla Day and everything associated with it should be celebrated by Mets fans:
1. The deal got rid of Mel Rojas, who needed to go because he was terrible and cost the Mets the 1998 Wild Card.
2. His injuries opened the door for playing time for Roger Cedeño, who would set the then Mets single season stolen base record.
3. Cedeño’s breakout helped the Mets use him as a key piece to obtain Derek Bell and Mike Hampton. Of course, the other key was buying out Bonilla freed up the money to permit the Mets to make the trade.
4. Hampton was the NLCS MVP as the Mets won their first pennant in 14 years.
5. When Hampton departed in free agency for the Colorado Rockies money and Denver school system, the Mets used their compensation pick on David Wright.
As we know, Wright would go on to become the Mets best third baseman and arguably their best ever position player. Certainly, any organization would do all they could do buy out a player for a pennant and to obtain a player like Wright.
There’s also the fact the joke is on everyone else now. The Bonilla money is a rounding error for the Mets now. Unlike the Wilpons who were ashamed, Steve Cohen uses Bonilla to promote special experiences at Citi Field.
This #BobbyBonillaDay, Bobby is heading to the plate to host an @Airbnb stay at @CitiField, in the ultimate Mets overnight experience. Starting on July 8 at noon, #Mets fans can request to book one night at Citi Field on July 28. #LGM
⚾️? https://t.co/mX83DzGsBt pic.twitter.com/O5hWqr1kz3
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 1, 2021
Overall, the Bonilla buy out was one of the best things the Mets ever did, and it will continue to be. So everyone can repeat the same lame forced jokes while Mets fans bask in the glory of it.
The New York Mets had a 2-0 lead when Pete Alonso hit a first inning two run homer off Max Fried. It was a down hill from there . . . way downhill.
David Peterson immediately gave up the lead in the bottom of the first. After a scoreless second, the Braves plated two more against him in the third.
Then, in the fourth, it all fell apart. After one run had scored increasing the Braves lead to 5-2, and one on, Peterson left the game with an injury. Sean Reid-Foley came in, and he was battered.
While the Mets wanted multiple innings from Reid-Foley, they got 0.2. In that stretch, he allowed the inherited runner to score before allowing four of his own.
This all but forced Thomas Szapucki to make his MLB debut. With Szapucki being a top prospect, and his potentially needing to take Peterson’s spot in the rotation, you wanted this to be the feel good story.
On the bright side, Szapucki escaped that jam allowing just one inherited runner. Past that, he wasn’t great allowing homers to Ozzie Albies and Ehire Adrianza.
The worst thing Szapucki did was not finish the game. He was completely out of gas after 3.2 innings, and he loaded the bases in the bottom of the eighth. Luis Rojas had enough, and he brought in Albert Almora, Jr. to pitch.
When Almora surrendered a homer to Ozzie Albies, Almora officially allowed more homers and RBI than he has hit and driven in this season. Basically, that’s the tale of how the Mets lose 20-2.
It’s just time to say nothing more about this one. Before moving on completely, the Mets need to figure it out soon because their +16 rum differential is now -2, and more importantly, their division lead is down to two.
Game Notes: Dellin Betances will have season ending shoulder surgery. Jonathan Villar was pulled from his rehab start in Syracuse. Mets finished June 15-15.
Top seven. One on. Two out. A.J. Minter leaves an 88.9 MPH cutter in the heart of the plate. Michael Conforto takes a big swing, connects, and . . . .
Ronald Acuña catches it short of the right field warning track for the last out of the inning. Instead of a 6-3 lead, the Mets lead was 4-3.
It’s an all too familiar story with Conforto this season. For some reason, he just isn’t hitting for any power. We shouldn’t dwell too much on his just having seven doubles and two homers as he did have an IL stint.
That said, those numbers over a 162 game average would be a paltry 28 doubles and eight homers. Those are Luis Guillorme numbers, not Conforto numbers.
Overall, Conforto has a .318 SLG. His ISO is .098. That just doesn’t seem possible. After all, this is a 30 home run hitter who was one of the best hitters in baseball last year.
His hard hit rate is a career worst 35.7%. His ground ball rate is a career worst 45.9%. His 7.1% HR/FB is easily the worst in his career. His Baseball Savant page is a lot of blue with Conforto having poor exit velocities and hard hit percentages.
Everywhere you look, Conforto is just having a career worst offensive season. That’s saying something too considering the year he played through a wrist injury. He’s just had more of a power outage than the State of New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy.
Now, there are some mitigating factors. The ball is deadened, and MLB is working to eliminate pitchers using sticky substances. His impending free agency is hanging over him. As noted, he’s dealt with injuries.
There’s also the Chili Davis factor. Much of what we’re seeing with Conforto is something we’re seeing with other Mets, but not as extreme. Same goes for the Cubs players whose power evaporated under Davis.
To wit, there may be hope this is just a blip for Conforto. He may just need to get into rhythm and get the opportunity to work with the new hitting coaches.
The Mets and Conforto better hope that’s the case because this team has World Series aspirations, and it’s going to be difficult to get there without Conforto hitting. Taking a step further, Conforto’s value on the free agent market is going to take a massive hit if, well, he can’t anymore.