Musings
Back in 2006, the New York Mets were in first place, but they were running out of starting pitchers. As a result, they called up John Maine.
Maine was a hard throwing right-handed pitcher who never quite looked ready for the majors, at least he didn’t in Baltimore. However, with Rick Peterson and Willie Randolph, something clicked.
Maine was able to use his fastball and slider to earn a permanent spot in the Mets rotation. Maine began to really force the issue at the end of his July 8 start.
Maine had allowed a go-ahead homer in the sixth before retiring the final two batters of the inning. That started a stretch of 26 innings. By that time, a Mets team looking to add a starter felt comfortable balking at the steep prices, and of course, they had to pivot due to Duaner Sanchez’s cab ride.
Maine would have a strong 2006 season going 6-5 with a 3.60 ERA, 122 ERA+, 1.113 WHIP, and a 7.1 K/9.
What ensued was a crazy postseason where he was an emergency replacement for an injured Orlando Hernandez right before Game 1 of the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Maine was terrific that postseason including his picking up a win in Game 6 of the NLCS.
What Maine did that season is difficult to emulate, but as previously noted, Megill is emulating that right now. We saw another sign in his last start where he went toe-to-toe with Brandon Woodruff over five innings.
Like Maine in 2006, Megill is only in the majors due to injuries, and he may be here to stay because of them. Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard have yet to pitch this season, and their time tables keep getting pushed back.
Joey Lucchesi had season ending Tommy John surgery. Jordan Yamamoto is on the 60 day IL. David Peterson has hit the IL. The end result has been Megill rushed to the majors and getting his opportunity, and the Mets suddenly and somewhat unexpectedly being in a position where they’ll need to look to add a starter at the trade deadline.
With every start, Megill is alleviating those concerns. Working with Jeremy Hefner and Luis Rojas, he’s taken his game to another level. Working predominantly with his fastball and slider, he increasingly looks like a Major League starter.
So far, he’s made three starts. He hasn’t registered a decision yet, but he has improved with each start. He has a 104 ERA+ and a very impressive 11.9 K/9. That’s even with him walking a couple of batters more than you’d like . . . much like Maine.
With his poise, repertoire, demeanor, and this coaching staff, there’s no reason to believe Megill won’t continue to improve. With each successive start, he’ll make the case he not only should be a part of this rotation, but he can be a part of a World Series contending team.
Again, that’s where the Mets were in 2006. John Maine gave them some comfort they could address other needs because Maine stabilized the rotation. When the pitchers didn’t heal like the Mets had hoped, and others pitchers got injured, Maine had a strong postseason giving the Mets every opportunity to win the pennant.
Megill is showing he can be that type of pitcher. He can be the stopgap. He can be the pitcher who convinces the Mets they don’t need to add pitching at the deadline. He can have a real impact this postseason.
Well, it’s July 1, meaning this is yet another year the New York Mets make their installment payment to Bobby Bonilla on the 25 year buy out. It’s also the day people try to rush to be funny.
Truth be told, Bonilla Day and everything associated with it should be celebrated by Mets fans:
1. The deal got rid of Mel Rojas, who needed to go because he was terrible and cost the Mets the 1998 Wild Card.
2. His injuries opened the door for playing time for Roger Cedeño, who would set the then Mets single season stolen base record.
3. Cedeño’s breakout helped the Mets use him as a key piece to obtain Derek Bell and Mike Hampton. Of course, the other key was buying out Bonilla freed up the money to permit the Mets to make the trade.
4. Hampton was the NLCS MVP as the Mets won their first pennant in 14 years.
5. When Hampton departed in free agency for the Colorado Rockies money and Denver school system, the Mets used their compensation pick on David Wright.
As we know, Wright would go on to become the Mets best third baseman and arguably their best ever position player. Certainly, any organization would do all they could do buy out a player for a pennant and to obtain a player like Wright.
There’s also the fact the joke is on everyone else now. The Bonilla money is a rounding error for the Mets now. Unlike the Wilpons who were ashamed, Steve Cohen uses Bonilla to promote special experiences at Citi Field.
This #BobbyBonillaDay, Bobby is heading to the plate to host an @Airbnb stay at @CitiField, in the ultimate Mets overnight experience. Starting on July 8 at noon, #Mets fans can request to book one night at Citi Field on July 28. #LGM
⚾️? https://t.co/mX83DzGsBt pic.twitter.com/O5hWqr1kz3
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 1, 2021
Overall, the Bonilla buy out was one of the best things the Mets ever did, and it will continue to be. So everyone can repeat the same lame forced jokes while Mets fans bask in the glory of it.
The New York Mets had a 2-0 lead when Pete Alonso hit a first inning two run homer off Max Fried. It was a down hill from there . . . way downhill.
David Peterson immediately gave up the lead in the bottom of the first. After a scoreless second, the Braves plated two more against him in the third.
Then, in the fourth, it all fell apart. After one run had scored increasing the Braves lead to 5-2, and one on, Peterson left the game with an injury. Sean Reid-Foley came in, and he was battered.
While the Mets wanted multiple innings from Reid-Foley, they got 0.2. In that stretch, he allowed the inherited runner to score before allowing four of his own.
This all but forced Thomas Szapucki to make his MLB debut. With Szapucki being a top prospect, and his potentially needing to take Peterson’s spot in the rotation, you wanted this to be the feel good story.
On the bright side, Szapucki escaped that jam allowing just one inherited runner. Past that, he wasn’t great allowing homers to Ozzie Albies and Ehire Adrianza.
The worst thing Szapucki did was not finish the game. He was completely out of gas after 3.2 innings, and he loaded the bases in the bottom of the eighth. Luis Rojas had enough, and he brought in Albert Almora, Jr. to pitch.
When Almora surrendered a homer to Ozzie Albies, Almora officially allowed more homers and RBI than he has hit and driven in this season. Basically, that’s the tale of how the Mets lose 20-2.
It’s just time to say nothing more about this one. Before moving on completely, the Mets need to figure it out soon because their +16 rum differential is now -2, and more importantly, their division lead is down to two.
Game Notes: Dellin Betances will have season ending shoulder surgery. Jonathan Villar was pulled from his rehab start in Syracuse. Mets finished June 15-15.
Top seven. One on. Two out. A.J. Minter leaves an 88.9 MPH cutter in the heart of the plate. Michael Conforto takes a big swing, connects, and . . . .
Ronald Acuña catches it short of the right field warning track for the last out of the inning. Instead of a 6-3 lead, the Mets lead was 4-3.
It’s an all too familiar story with Conforto this season. For some reason, he just isn’t hitting for any power. We shouldn’t dwell too much on his just having seven doubles and two homers as he did have an IL stint.
That said, those numbers over a 162 game average would be a paltry 28 doubles and eight homers. Those are Luis Guillorme numbers, not Conforto numbers.
Overall, Conforto has a .318 SLG. His ISO is .098. That just doesn’t seem possible. After all, this is a 30 home run hitter who was one of the best hitters in baseball last year.
His hard hit rate is a career worst 35.7%. His ground ball rate is a career worst 45.9%. His 7.1% HR/FB is easily the worst in his career. His Baseball Savant page is a lot of blue with Conforto having poor exit velocities and hard hit percentages.
Everywhere you look, Conforto is just having a career worst offensive season. That’s saying something too considering the year he played through a wrist injury. He’s just had more of a power outage than the State of New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy.
Now, there are some mitigating factors. The ball is deadened, and MLB is working to eliminate pitchers using sticky substances. His impending free agency is hanging over him. As noted, he’s dealt with injuries.
There’s also the Chili Davis factor. Much of what we’re seeing with Conforto is something we’re seeing with other Mets, but not as extreme. Same goes for the Cubs players whose power evaporated under Davis.
To wit, there may be hope this is just a blip for Conforto. He may just need to get into rhythm and get the opportunity to work with the new hitting coaches.
The Mets and Conforto better hope that’s the case because this team has World Series aspirations, and it’s going to be difficult to get there without Conforto hitting. Taking a step further, Conforto’s value on the free agent market is going to take a massive hit if, well, he can’t anymore.
It finally happened. In the New York Mets 8-4 loss, the late inning machinations led to Jeff McNeil playing third base. It took 74 games for the Mets to put their best third baseman at third base.
Now, many don’t believe that to be true because McNeil struggled there for exactly nine games in a COVID impacted season. For some reason, those nine games were weighed much more than the rest of his career.
Entering 2020, McNeil had played 171.1 innings at third at the MLB level. Over that admittedly small sample size, he had a 6 DRS, 3.1 UZR, and a 5 OAA. Those numbers are excellent. Really, when you have a player of that caliber, you don’t move him off the position.
That goes double when you look at the other Mets third basemen. J.D. Davis and Jonathan Villar entered the year with reputations as poor defenders, and they haven’t disappointed.
In 94.0 innings, Davis has a -2 DRS, -0.9 UZR, and a -1 OAA. While having the propensity to make the highlight play, Villar has a -1 DRS, -1.9 UZR, and -2 OAA in 362.2 innings at third.
At the moment, both Davis and Villar are on the IL taking them out of the third base mix. That means Luis Guillorme is the third baseman for now.
Shockingly, Guillorme is not a good third baseman. In 113.2 innings this year, he has a -3 DRS, -1.0 UZR, and a -1 OAA. For whatever reason, the skills which make him an extraordinarily gifted middle infielder isn’t translating at the hot corner.
This makes the Mets putting McNeil at second and Guillorme at third an inexplicably bad and stubborn decision. Remember, when McNeil wasn’t initially called up in 2018, Sandy Alderson’s initial rationale was McNeil wasn’t a third baseman.
Of course, the problem is McNeil is s third baseman, and he’s a very good one at that. They’re taking one of their best players and neutralizing just how great he can be.
More than that, they’re purposefully not allowing Guillorme to thrive. He is a player who plays exceptional defense and finds a way on base. When he’s played second, he’s done that. When he hasn’t, he’s a player who hits for no power and plays poor defense. Continuing down this path is insane.
This is a good Mets team which can be great. They can win a World Series. To do that, they’re going to have to get the most out of their roster and put their players in a position to succeed. As long as McNeil is at second with Guillorme at third, they’re not going that.
It’s past time to make the switch. The Mets can maximize their defense and help their pitching by making this switch. They can be an even more imposing club. Hopefully, we will see McNeil at third with Guillorme at second soon.
Based on what we’ve seen in this Mets-Phillies series, the Phillies bullpen is going to have a lead. Luis Guillorme is going to find a way on to start a rally. The Mets will score a run to tie and/or take the lead with a batter who the fans will say they have no faith in the big spot (Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto).
There will be much rejoicing.
One of the better things the New York Mets did for the 2021 season was to have a second season with the Tom Seaver patch. While it was worn in memorium in 2020, this year, it was to celebrate his life and accomplishments.
The Mets have so far done well to honor Seaver. With his 41 on their right arms, the Mets pitching staff leads the majors in ERA and FIP. Put another way, when emblazoned with the best on their right arms, they’ve been the best staff in the league.
Of course, that all starts with Jacob deGrom. Not only is deGrom the best pitcher in baseball, like Seaver once was, but he’s also challenging many of Seaver’s records.
Certainly, part of what the Mets are doing can be attributed to the excellent staff they’ve assembled. Moreover, Luis Rojas, Jeremy Hefner, and Jeremy Accardo have done an amazing job, which deserves all the accolades and superlatives you can give them.
Still, there’s some magic with Seaver’s number on the jerseys. There’s also something to be said for The Franchise to be a part of the Mets uniform. After all, there’s no rule which states you can’t forever honor a player like this.
Overall, Seaver is the Mets, and he always will be that. He’s arguably more important to the Mets than any player is to any franchise. He should be recognized and honored as such with his number forever a part of the Mets jerseys.
For some, Pete Alonso‘s 2020 season was some cause for concern. After all, his performance in the abbreviated 60 game season was a precipitous drop-off from his record setting 2019 rookie campaign.
In 2020, Alonso played 57 games. He hit .231/.326/.490 with six doubles, 16 homers, and 35 RBI. Prorated over 162 games, that’s 17 doubles, 45 doubles, and 99 RBI.
You’d take those power numbers, but it was a far cry from his 2019 season. In that season, he hit .260/.358/.583 with 30 doubles, two triples, 53 homers, and 120 RBI.
In 2019, Alonso was an All-Star. He had a 5.4 WAR and a 143 wRC+. In 2020, that dropped to a 0.1 WAR and a 118 wRC+. The wRC+ would be the same on a prorated basis, but his WAR over 162 games would’ve been roughly 0.3.
No matter how you look at it, that’s a steep drop-off. Still, it was a pandemic shortened and affected season. There was no need to overreact to it. That said, the disparity in performance meant Alonso may not be the player he was in 2019 in what was a juiced ball season.
The question for Alonso was whether he was closer to the 2019 or the 2020 player. This season should provide some answers to that.
Well, Alonso has played 58 games this season, just one more than last year. Through those games, he’s hitting .250/.333/.451 with eight doubles, 11 homers, and 35 RBI. That’s much closer to his 2020 season than his 2019.
In fact, Alonso has a 120 wRC+, which is a hair better than last year. It should be noted OPS+ paints a different picture with Alonso dropping from 121 to 119. Effectively speaking, Alonso is the same hitter he was last year.
Now, his WAR is much higher with it being 0.9 so far this year. That’s attributable to two things. First, he’s back to playing first instead of being a DH. Second, his first base defense is much improved.
However, when we look at Alonso, the focus is on the bat. Over 57 games the past two years, it’s just not there. Well, it’s there, but it’s just not at that level he set in 2019.
This isn’t a 57 or 58 game issue per se. Keep in mind, through his first 58 games as a rookie, he was hitting .263/.335/.606.
Another way to look at it is between this year and the last, Alonso has played 115 games. He’s hitting .240/.330/.471 with 14 doubles, 27 homers, and 70 RBI.
Prorated over 162 games, that’s 20 doubles, 39 homers, and 99 RBI with a 120 OPS+. That’s good, but it’s nowhere near what he showed his rookie year.
Now, there are factors this year including an injury and now a deadened ball. Those factors, much like the juiced ball of 2019, make it extraordinarily difficult to analyze and ascertain just what Alonso’s true talent level is.
The only thing we do know is Alonso is closer to what he was in 2020, and so far, we’re not seeing signs he’s nearing that 2019 form. Still, there’s a lot of season left where Alonso can once again show us the transcendent and hand changing hitter he can be.