Musings

Michael Conforto Having Worst Contract Walk Year Ever

With the allowance for some, but not much, hyperbole, Michael Conforto is having one of the worst contract walk years we have ever seen. Case-in-point, it’s after the All-Star Break, and he just fell under the Mendoza Line.

This is the same Conforto who was arguably the best hitter in the NL last year. He had the look of a player about to bust out and be the superstar we all imagined he’d be when he was blasting two homers in the 2015 World Series.

Instead, through 53 games, he’s hitting just .199/.343/.295 with seven doubles, three homers, and 19 RBI. His slugging percentage looks like what his batting average should be.

Defensively, he’s a 92 wRC+ and an 81 OPS+ hitter. His ground ball rate is a career worst, and not too coincidentally, so are his home run rates. He’s pulling more than he ever has, and his hard hit rates are the lowest in his career.

Defensively, Conforto has a 1 DRS and a 1 OAA. That’s actually a nice rebound for a player who was declining defensively. However, Conforto has again lost a step in the outfield. His sprint speed is in a three year decline.

When you throw in Conforto suffering another injury, this has been just about as bad a season as anyone could have entering free agency. He’s been hurt, dropped in the lineup, and having the worst year of his career. Keep in mind, there was a year where he struggled due to a wrist injury.

The good news for Conforto is there are still roughly two-and-a-half months of the season. If the Mets remain in first place, he will also have a postseason. With any resurgence, Conforto can once again establish himself as one of the best in the game and the top free agent outfielder.

If not, Conforto will likely see a two as the first number in his contract. However, instead of a multi-year deal worth over $200 million, it’ll be a large one year price it deal for more than $20 million.

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Jacob deGrom Avoided All-Star COVID Exposure

New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom has skipped the All-Star Game due to his nagging injuries and to spend time with his family. It was the right decision in more ways than one.

The first game out of the All-Star Break for Major League Baseball was supposed to be between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. That game and a subsequent game was suspended due to COVID.

There were three Yankee players who tested positive for COVID with three more pending cases. One of those with a pending case was All-Star Aaron Judge.

Judge’s pending case led to the recommendation the five Red Sox All-Stars undertake social distancing measures. Rafael Devers advised he could not participate in media availability and needed to take a COVID test.

As of this moment, it would appear the positive cases are restricted to the Yankees and the concern is limited to the Yankees and Red Sox. However, that is just based on what is being reported.

Really, we don’t know how many players have been exposed or will test positive. Part of the reason is we don’t know the level of social interaction between the players during the festivities.

To a certain extent, there should be some concern about Taijuan Walker who pitched in the game. The same could be said for Pete Alonso and Dave Jauss, who participated in the Home Run Derby.

The only thing we know for certain is deGrom was not exposed to anything at the All-Star Game because he wasn’t there. Hopefully, his teammates were similarly not exposed. That’s of increased importance given how the Mets are one of the least vaccinated teams in baseball.

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Mets 2021 Uniforms: Back in Black

After the years of waiting, the New York Mets are finally bringing back the black jerseys on July 30, and they’ll be worn for all the ensuing Friday games.

These are the jerseys Mike Piazza and Edgardo Alfonzo wore the last time the Mets captured the pennant at home. They’re the jerseys David Wright and Carlos Beltran wore the last time the Mets clinched a division at home, and they wore them again to open Citi Field.

Now, we’re going to see current Mets greats carry on the tradition. Certainly, we should expect to see Jacob deGrom, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso accomplish similar feats to those Mets teams.

Friday nights are the perfect time for these jerseys. By limiting it, it prevents the issue fans previously had where the regular jerseys were almost entirely phased out for the black.

Of course, there’s also hope the Mets still embrace the blue alternates. It would be great to see Mr. Met return to the sleeve and have them worn on Family Sundays at Citi Field.

Overall, it’s great to see the Mets bringing back a fan favorite jerseys and treating them like a special event. Hopefully, it is something which stays well past this season.

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Alonso Is Re-Pete Home Run Derby Champion

Each of the Home Run Derby contestants wore the number 44 in honor of the late Hank Aaron. Much like Aaron once before him, Pete Alonso once again established himself as the real home run king.

First, Alonso knocked off Salvador Perez. Then, he squared off against Juan Soto. Alonso did so well that round, he actually used his time out solely for the purpose of hyping the crowd.

Finally, Alonso faced Trey Mancini in the finals. The cancer survivor was a crowd favorite, and really everyone on that planet, except Mets fans, were rooting for him.

Mancini had a great round hitting 22 homers. That just so happened to be the same amount Vlad Guerrero Jr. hit two years ago. Once again, Alonso beat that number.

In total, Alonso hit a very nice 69 total homers. If not for his going second in his matchups against Soto and Mancini, he very likely would’ve hit more. Those homers traveled a combined 26 miles.

With that, Alonso joins Ken Griffey, Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes as the only players to successfully defend their title. There’s every chance Alonso can and will go for the three peat, sorry three Pete, next year in Los Angeles.

There have been many great at this event, but Alonso could be the best ever at this. Really, he’s to the Home Run Derby what Jacob deGrom is to pitching.

Speaking of deGrom, he won the Cy Young in 2019 when Alonso won the Home Run Derby. It looks like that feat will be repeated this year. Certainly, we can also expect the Mets to have a big second half much like they had that year as well.

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Kumar Is Going To Shake Shack

Sure, the New York Mets inexplicably blew a 5-0 first inning lead to the lousy Pittsburgh Pirates, but it’s still a great day for the organization. The reason? They drafted Kumar Rocker!

Before the year, Rocker was expected to be the first overall pick. For various reasons, including perceived signability as well as a late year dip in velocity, Rocket moved down the draft board. Still, with there were rumors it could happen, no one really expected him to fall to 10 where the Mets were drafting.

Still, that didn’t stop the Mets from doing their due diligence. Tommy Tanous, Marc Tramuta, and other Mets scouts went to see Rocker pitch. They saw a pitcher they thought had elite stuff and an elite makeup. They saw someone they didn’t expect to be available.

Despite everyone passing, they weren’t fooled, and they made the best pick possible. It’s what they did when they grabbed Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto, David Peterson, Jared Kelenic, and others.

Simply put, the Mets know how to draft. They’ve become great at it, and on a day like today, when a player unexpectedly falls to them, they know exactly what to do.

That was to grab an exceptionally talented pitcher. As noted by MLB Pipeline, he had quite the repertoire with a developing change and more:

He usually operates at 93-96 mph with his heater, which can reach 99 and features some run and sink but also can get flat at times, though his velocity sat in the low 90s for three weeks early in the season. He notched all 19 of his whiffs in his no-hitter with his slider, a mid-80s beast with power and depth that grades as plus-plus, and he also has a low-80s curveball with more vertical break. 

What Rocker will be is anyone’s guess. That said, he has ace potential, and he’s with a Mets organization which develops pitching quite well. Just ask Jacob deGrom and Seth Lugo.

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Mets Should Probably Avoid Adam Frazier

In the first of seven straight games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the New York Mets got a good luck at popular trade target Adam Frazier. He certainly impressed going 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI.

It was the latest in what has been an All-Star season for Frazier. In 86 games, he’s hitting .328/.397/.464 with 26 doubles, four triples, four homers, and 29 RBI.

Frazier has a 2.6 WAR and a 138 wRC+. Among MLB second basemen, his WAR ranks fifth and his wRC+ ranks second. That’s extremely impressive, and his having another year of control makes him all the more enticing.

That said, the Mets shouldn’t look to add him at the trade deadline.

First, there’s the defense issue. Frazier would just be another second baseman who can’t play third to the mix. Maybe this will finally be the move which forces Jeff McNeil to third, which would be great, but it’s doubtful considering the Mets stubborn refusal to move McNeil off second.

If Frazier is slotted for second, it’s difficult to tell how he’d play. While he’s had elite numbers some years, he’s been terrible in others. This year, he’s a -2 DRS and -1 OAA.

On the defensive front, it’s possible the Mets believe their shifting and positioning could help Frazier play like an elite defender again. Seeing the Mets defensive turnaround this season, we shouldn’t doubt them.

With Frazier, the bigger issue is the bat. Yes, he’s having a great year. However, when you dig into the numbers, you see a player in line for a regression towards the 100 wRC+ player he was entering the season.

Frazier entered the year with a career .303 BABIP, and he’s at a .363 this season. Going to Baseball Savant, his barrels and exit velocities are very low. Actually, as luck would have it, they’re the worst of his career.

These are not the numbers of a player having career best power hitting numbers or for that matter, a career year.

Now, there are some good things with Frazier. His line drive rate is up, and his plate discipline has improved. He’s also a tough strikeout.

Taken all together, Frazier is an absolutely improved player at the plate, but he’s not as good as he is now. Frazier isn’t a good defender now, but he has been, and the right team can get more from him.

The obvious caveat is if the price is right, the Mets should look to add him. He’s a clear upgrade. That said, the cost will probably outweigh his value, and to some extent, Frazier is quite duplicative to what the Mets already have in Luis Guillorme, Jose Peraza, and Jonathan Villar.

It would seem the Mets attention is better focused elsewhere to address the real third base and bullpen vacancies. They also don’t want to be in a position to pay a premium price for a player due to regress both in the second half and next season.

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Taijuan Walker Didn’t Give Up Grand Slam To Rookie Reliever

Before the game between the San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals, the Nationals social media team put forth their case for Max Scherzer to be named an All-Star. Basically, they tried to say Scherzer is better than Padres All-Star Yu Darvish:

Well, things didn’t go well for Scherzer after this. The Nationals ace blew an 8-0 lead. The worst of it was when Padres ROOKIE RELIEVER Daniel Camarena hit a grand slam.

Lets repeat that: A rookie reliever hit a grand slam off of Scherzer. That just doesn’t happen.

Well, it did, and as a result, the case for Taijuan Walker being an All-Star is now all the stronger. Of course, this has nothing to do with the first place Mets not having an All-Star when Jacob deGrom will not be in attendance in Colorado.

After last night’s Scherzer debacle, Walker’s FIP lead over Scherzer is 3.07 to 3.32. His ERA lead is 2.44 to 2.66. His ERA+ lead is 158 to 140. His not giving up homers to rookie relievers lead is 0 to 1.

Overall, Walker should’ve been an All-Star the first go-around, and his case is all the stronger today. Hopefully, the right decision is made with Walker being added to the All-Star team.

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Help Howard Johnson’s Grandson

Former New York Mets great Howard Johnson took to social media seeking help after his grandson suffered a horrific accident. His foot got run over by a lawnmower, and as a result, part of his foot was severed.

The medical bills are and will continue to be extensive. There is a Go Fund Me set-up to collect the monies needed. At the moment, roughly one-third of the money has been raised. There’s the caveat the fees could be more substantial than anticipated.

To the extent you can help, please do. This isn’t about a former Mets player we adored. It’s about a little boy who has been severely injured and a family who desperately needs your help.

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Mets Don’t Need Starter At Trade Deadline

With the New York Mets in first place and there is earnest discussion over what the Mets should add at the trade deadline. With all the injuries, the discussion has centered on starting pitching.

Before delving into potential names, the first consideration should be the Mets only need four starters to get them through the postseason. With respect to that, they have a phenomenal foundation with

  1. Jacob deGrom
  2. Marcus Stroman
  3. Taijuan Walker

By ERA, that’s the best 1-2-3 in the majors. That’s especially impressive considering they are missing their second and third best pitchers in Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard.

Now, it’s a dangerous game waiting for injured players to return. That goes double for pitchers. For example, we’ve already seen Carrasco’s and Syndergaard’s return dates pushed back repeatedly.

However, on that note, Carrasco is throwing batting practice, and he’s throwing in the mid 90s. After another session, he may be set for a rehab assignment.

If Carrasco continues on this path, he will have at least one start in the majors prior to the trade deadline. If he’s back in the rotation by then, there’s no sense in adding another starter.

As we’ve seen, Tylor Megill has the stuff to at least be a five and fly starter. There’s also David Peterson and Corey Oswalt, who could be available soon after their IL stints. Again, we shouldn’t count on them, but they’re part of the equation. That’s nothing to say of Syndergaard who MAY return in September in some capacity.

In terms of the fifth starter spot, they have the numbers to address it. We should keep in mind whoever that starter is, it’s unlikely they’ll be on the postseason roster, at least not as a starter.

To that point, if the Mets are looking to add pitching at the trade deadline, perhaps they should be looking more at relievers. They’ve already seen an incredible number of injuries on that front, and Miguel Castro, who was supposed to be a key piece of the bullpen, has lost his effectiveness.

Of course, if Carrasco has yet another set-back, the Mets should pivot. Moreover, if the right deal presents itself, the Mets shouldn’t object to improving the roster. That said, the team has much bigger holes in the bullpen and at third base, and after what Brodie Van Wagenen did to the roster, they have somewhat limited resources to add at the trade deadline.

Taking everything into account, as of right now, the Mets focus shouldn’t be on adding a starter. It should be on building the best possible postseason roster.

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Mets Stubborn Refusal To Postpone deGrom Start Absolutely Right Call

One in the ways things have been very different under Steve Cohen is handling rain outs. Whereas the Wilpons collected money for a few hours, Cohen’s Mets have typically called games well in advance thereby preventing fans from even having to leave their houses to come to Citi Field.

That is typically the case, but it wasn’t on Tuesday. No, the Mets absolutely refused to call the game. Fans were there for two-and-a-half hours before the Mets finally relented and called the game. Of course, there were some “fans” who were upset.

While it seems excessive, there was very good reason for the Mets handling of the situation. First and foremost, as we saw, the Mets actually believed there was a window where they could play the game.

More than the belief they could actually play, there was a more overarching reason. Playing the game meant the Mets could maximize the amount of times Jacob deGrom pitched.

If deGrom pitched on Tuesday, he would be ready to pitch again on Sunday. That’s two starts heading into the break. With him starting Sunday, he would then be excused from the All-Star Game. That’s an important consideration with deGrom dealing with aches and pains for about a month.

This would have also permitted deGrom to pitch on Friday, which is the first game after the break. That would’ve meant deGrom would pitch three times over the Mets next seven games.

If you’re the Mets, you have to do absolutely everything you can to make that happen. deGrom is the best pitcher in the game, and he gives the Mets their best chance to win.

Now, deGrom is going to start just one more time before the break. He won’t be excused from the All-Star Game, and if he pitches in the game, he may not be set to pitch on Friday.

Overall, deGrom not pitching Tuesday hurts the Mets. They knew that, and they did all they could to play. While it’s frustrating for the fans (who were taken care of in some capacity), it was the right call.

When you can pitch deGrom, you pitch him. You do everything you can to make it happen. The.Mets did that, and they deserve to be commended for it.

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