Musings
As the New York Mets stared down the trade deadline, they needed to address their pitching, and they needed to get a third baseman. Instead of doing that, they instead opted to trade for Javier Baez.
For Baez, the Mets parted with Pete Crow-Armstrong, and the Chicago Cubs threw in Trevor Williams. Considering Baez was going to receive a qualifying offer, the deal was more than fair. In fact, you could argue the Mets got the better end of the deal.
However, while the Mets won the trade, you do have to wonder just how much better Baez makes them. It’s debatable.
For now, Baez stands as a replacement for the injured Francisco Lindor. Baez is not on Lindor’s level defensively, and he has really struggled this year.
So far, Baez has a career worst -1 OAA. DRS tells a different story with a 4 DRS. That’s the second best mark of his career in a full 162 game season. That’s not the defensive wizard he’s purported to be, and it’s probably not a significant upgrade than what Luis Guillorme could provide.
Offensively, Baez is at a 105 wRC+. If he stays at or near this level, that’ll be just the third time over his eight year career he is at least a league average hitter.
The problem with Baez is he’s got a poor mix of not taking walks and swinging and nodding frequently. In fact, he leads the league in strikeouts. Overall, his 36.3 K% is borderline unplayable.
Keep in mind, Baez only exacerbates Mets offensive issues. They’re in the bottom half of the NL in strikeout and walk rates. Baez will serve as a hindrance to both. If anything, Baez moves the Mets further towards an all or nothing offense.
All that said, Baez does make the Mets better. If nothing else, he eventually moves Jeff McNeil to third and J.D. Davis to the bench. That helps the pitching significantly, especially starters like Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker.
There’s also his friendship with Lindor and experience playing for Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic. With that, he has a familiarity with Edwin Diaz. Diaz has missed Lindor, and it’s shown. Hopefully, Baez can temporarily fill that void.
Baez also has championship pedigree being a part of the 2016 Chicago Cubs. In his career, he’s had some big series including his being the 2016 NLCS MVP.
On that note, Baez does create a more defined path towards winning the World Series. This is going to have to be a team which wins with its pitching and defense. They have enough offense to get it done.
All told, Baez is an improvement. The problem is he may not be sufficient. He hurts the offense, and he’s no longer the defensive genius we thought him to be.
Now, as evidenced by his 2.8 WAR, he’s a good player. In fact, that mark puts him as the Mets top position player. So yes, the Mets are better. However, it’s really debatable if they’re significantly better or really improved their chances to hold onto the division or win the World Series.
When making decisions at the trade deadline, it is not just about where your team is in the standings. It is also about where you are at as an organization. Right now, the Mets are 4.0 games up on the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, two teams who are under .500. As for the organization, well, they are in a much more tenuous spot.
After this season, Michael Conforto, Jeurys Familia, Rich Hill, Aaron Loup, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, and Jonathan Villar will be free agents. After the following season, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Brandon Nimmo, and Kevin Pillar will be free agents. Jacob deGrom can also opt out of his contract, and Taijuan Walker can decline his player option.
Focusing more narrowly, after two years, the Mets could lose 2/3 of their outfield and 4/5 of their starting rotation. They can also lose four key set-up men as well as their closer. Put another way, this team is on the precipice of losing very important pieces of a team which is going to take it to the postseason this year.
Now, this is certainly a much different proposition with Steve Cohen at the helm than it was with the Wilpons. There is an implicit trust Cohen will continue trying to win. However, as we know, you’re not always successful identifying who to keep and who to let go as well as who the right replacements are.
When we look back to the early 90s, the Mets were coming off their best stretch in Mets history. They made the right decision letting Gary Carter and Keith Hernandez go. However, they made some bad calls like thinking Vince Coleman could replace Darryl Strawberry. They over relied on their belief Kevin Elster, Dave Magadan, and Gregg Jefferies could be first division starters. Of course, there was also the Worst Team Money Could Buy.
All told, when the Mets switched from build around a core to replacing and altering the core, things fell apart. We can look at other points in Mets history when that happened. It happened again when the Mets passed on Alex Rodriguez as part of a calamitous offseason after the 2000 pennant. The 2009 Mets made the mistake of keeping Oliver Perez. The 2017 Mets got their money tied up in Neil Walker, and they saw Robert Gsellman and Lugo couldn’t hang as starters for a full season.
In some ways, that leads us to now. The Mets have extremely important decisions to make on who stays and who goes. They need to see who the correct replacements are. From what we’ve see from this front office, we should have faith they are up to the task. That said, we all had very well placed faith in Frank Cashen, and he blew it up.
Seeing where the Mets are, the best decision they can make right now is to absolutely go for it. Yes, that may very well require overpaying for players and rentals. Back in 2015, that didn’t make much sense. It was year one of contending for a young core who was cost controlled. Their decisions, including letting Daniel Murphy walk, turned it into a two year window. That window slammed shut without a World Series.
Right now, the Mets window is definitely open, but it’s being propped open. Without the right options, this window can slam shut after this year. It may well be that after the 2022 season. The Mets definitely need to keep this possibility in mind as they look to add at the trade deadline.
Players like Kris Bryant and Trevor Story dramatically changes the fortunes of this team. The same can be said for a player like Jose Ramirez. It may hurt to overpay for Max Scherzer or another top of the line starter, but imagine a two headed monster of deGrom and Scherzer (and having deGrom insurance) as the Mets look to win a World Series.
Ultimately, the Mets are going to see radical changes to this roster over the next few years. They’re in first place now with a team capable of winning a World Series. They need to make sure they do everything they need to do to get that World Series, or they may be ruing the missed chance for a team in transition over the next few years.
In the opener of the series between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets, Mets fans let George Springer absolutely have it. Certainly, it was a curious attack.
Mets fans, or at least a significant portion of them, purport to hate the New York Yankees. Springer was actually one of the driving reasons why helping the Houston Astros beat the Yankees in the 2017 and 2019 ALCS.
It’s difficult to believe it’s over Springer signing with Toronto. After all, he hasn’t had a good year, and the Mets are in first place. He’s also in the other league.
If reports are to be believed, Steve Gelbs said during the telecast it was over the Astros cheating scandal. If so, that’s just lame.
First and foremost, that didn’t stop a very good potion of Mets fans from wanting Springer this offseason. Mostly, Mets fans have already established they didn’t care when they opted to ignore J.D. Davis‘ part in the scandal.
Yes, we all know the litany of excuses. All of them apply to Tony Kemp as well, but he refused to take part. Instead, Davis took part, and he lied about taking part until he could no longer.
This is just one of those things where you either care, or you don’t. If you’re bothered by it, be bothered by it when your player took part. Don’t draw lines on when it is and isn’t acceptable just because someone had an unsustainably hot second half in 2019.
In the end, fans can and will do what they want. By all means, go ahead and boo Springer. After all, he’s the opposition. That said, with respect to what happened in Houston, he’s far from the only player involved.
With Jacob deGrom down, and with Carlos Carrasco looking further away than initially hoped, the New York Mets have a real need for a starting pitcher. In fact, at the moment, their rotations is Megill, Walker, Stro, and Who Knows?
So, obviously, the Mets are going to need a starting pitcher, and they are going to need one sooner rather than later. Who they can get, and what the cost will be, is anyone’s best guess.
While we know this is a priority, this is not the only area the Mets need to address at the trade deadline. As a result, they should not and cannot get myopic in their endeavors to improve the team. This is a front office well capable of multitasking, and they are well aware of those needs.
Right now, those needs include pitching in general. While the rotation is getting all the focus, the bullpen needs help as well. Since June 1, the Mets bullpen has been one of the worst in baseball. In fact, they own a 5.21 FIP which is the second worst in baseball. Their 4.69 ERA may only be 13th worst, but that is the worst among any teams currently in a postseason position.
While the bullpen has been a strength early, it has been a liability of late. Part of that is fatigue and players hitting the IL. The other part of it has been Edwin Diaz regressing and starting to resemble the unreliable closer who lost his job in 2019. With that being the case, the Mets need to seriously take a look at adding at least an arm or maybe two.
The other big area of need is third base. Right now, Mets third basemen collectively own a -8 DRS, which is the third worst in the National League. Coincidentally, it is the only position where the Mets own a negative DRS defensively.
Part of the reason is the Mets aren’t playing Jeff McNeil there. Instead, they have asked Luis Guillorme, Jose Peraza, and Jonathan Villar to play out of position. That has yielded poor results. The other problem is J.D. Davis has long proven completely incapable of proving the position. The boiling point on Davis should have been when he literally just stood in foul territory in Pittsburgh when Walker unsuccessfully tried to knock a ball foul.
As we see, the Mets have three real areas of need with the rotation, bullpen, and third base. You can also make the case with Peraza suffering a broken finger, the Mets could afford to add a little more depth to the roster. Overall, if the Mets want to win the World Series, and they have the core to do it, they need to look at more than the rotation.
Robert Stock was recalled, and he lasted all of one inning before leaving the game with an injury. That meant the New York Mets bullpen effectively needed to pitch the entire game.
They would do that, but it would feature pitchers like Stephen Nogosek (3.0 IP), Yennsy Diaz, and Geoff Hartlieb. Somehow, despite that, this was a close ballgame.
What did the Mets in this game more than anything with hitting with runners in scoring position. That problem reared it’s ugly head again with the Mets going 0-for-7 stranding nine runners.
On the bright side, Pete Alonso homered again, and Luis Guillorme had a pinch hit RBI double. Brandon Nimmo made a nice recovery on a Eugenio Suarez double to nail him at third.
Got him! @You_Found_Nimmo pic.twitter.com/fnZMSNsuuI
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 21, 2021
On the downside, the Mets couldn’t take full advantage of their opportunities.
In the seventh, Jonathan Villar and Dominic Smith walked to start the inning. Villar would score from second on a Joey Votto missed catch error. However, the Mets couldn’t take full advantage as Jeff McNeil hit into an inning ending double play.
In the eighth. .Guillorme was stranded at second. Smith drew a leadoff walk in the ninth, but he wouldn’t advance.
In the end, it was a hard fought 4-3 loss. It shouldn’t have been this close, but the pitching held up. The only issue now is can it hold up again.
Game Notes: Jose Peraza landed on the IL with a broken ginger. Jerad Eickhoff was designated for assignment. J.D. Davis was 0-for-4 with two strikeouts.
Hansel Robles was one of the more maddening New York Mets relievers. He could go through scoreless streaks which huge performances, and he could follow it by being completely unable to get an out.
Perhaps, what drove Mets fans craziest about Robles was the point. Inevitably, when a ball was hit out, Robles stuck his finger in the air so as to indicate it was a pop up.
Let’s not forget Hansel Robles also likes to point at HR? pic.twitter.com/HfjjnJkvGL
— Andrew Capitosti (@lilcap18) June 19, 2019
Robles was designated for assignment three years ago, and when he left the Mets, the thought was we’d never have to see another point again. We were wrong, very wrong.
In a game the Mets once led 6-0, Edwin Diaz was asked to close out a game they now only led by the score of 7-5 heading into the bottom of the ninth.
Diaz struggled loading the bases, and Jacob Stallings would hit a walk-off grand slam giving the Pirates a 9-7 win. As we all watched on in horror, Diaz pointed to the sky.
https://twitter.com/majorleaguegifs/status/1416593712113754114?s=21
It was a horrific loss, and to make matters worse, we were again reminded of the Robles point. So to compound the Mets loss, we’re again reminded of the point and how bad things can get.
With the allowance for some, but not much, hyperbole, Michael Conforto is having one of the worst contract walk years we have ever seen. Case-in-point, it’s after the All-Star Break, and he just fell under the Mendoza Line.
This is the same Conforto who was arguably the best hitter in the NL last year. He had the look of a player about to bust out and be the superstar we all imagined he’d be when he was blasting two homers in the 2015 World Series.
Instead, through 53 games, he’s hitting just .199/.343/.295 with seven doubles, three homers, and 19 RBI. His slugging percentage looks like what his batting average should be.
Defensively, he’s a 92 wRC+ and an 81 OPS+ hitter. His ground ball rate is a career worst, and not too coincidentally, so are his home run rates. He’s pulling more than he ever has, and his hard hit rates are the lowest in his career.
Defensively, Conforto has a 1 DRS and a 1 OAA. That’s actually a nice rebound for a player who was declining defensively. However, Conforto has again lost a step in the outfield. His sprint speed is in a three year decline.
When you throw in Conforto suffering another injury, this has been just about as bad a season as anyone could have entering free agency. He’s been hurt, dropped in the lineup, and having the worst year of his career. Keep in mind, there was a year where he struggled due to a wrist injury.
The good news for Conforto is there are still roughly two-and-a-half months of the season. If the Mets remain in first place, he will also have a postseason. With any resurgence, Conforto can once again establish himself as one of the best in the game and the top free agent outfielder.
If not, Conforto will likely see a two as the first number in his contract. However, instead of a multi-year deal worth over $200 million, it’ll be a large one year price it deal for more than $20 million.
New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom has skipped the All-Star Game due to his nagging injuries and to spend time with his family. It was the right decision in more ways than one.
The first game out of the All-Star Break for Major League Baseball was supposed to be between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. That game and a subsequent game was suspended due to COVID.
There were three Yankee players who tested positive for COVID with three more pending cases. One of those with a pending case was All-Star Aaron Judge.
Judge’s pending case led to the recommendation the five Red Sox All-Stars undertake social distancing measures. Rafael Devers advised he could not participate in media availability and needed to take a COVID test.
As of this moment, it would appear the positive cases are restricted to the Yankees and the concern is limited to the Yankees and Red Sox. However, that is just based on what is being reported.
Really, we don’t know how many players have been exposed or will test positive. Part of the reason is we don’t know the level of social interaction between the players during the festivities.
To a certain extent, there should be some concern about Taijuan Walker who pitched in the game. The same could be said for Pete Alonso and Dave Jauss, who participated in the Home Run Derby.
The only thing we know for certain is deGrom was not exposed to anything at the All-Star Game because he wasn’t there. Hopefully, his teammates were similarly not exposed. That’s of increased importance given how the Mets are one of the least vaccinated teams in baseball.
After the years of waiting, the New York Mets are finally bringing back the black jerseys on July 30, and they’ll be worn for all the ensuing Friday games.
Back in Black – July 30 pic.twitter.com/jZw7pi3P8Y
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 15, 2021
These are the jerseys Mike Piazza and Edgardo Alfonzo wore the last time the Mets captured the pennant at home. They’re the jerseys David Wright and Carlos Beltran wore the last time the Mets clinched a division at home, and they wore them again to open Citi Field.
Now, we’re going to see current Mets greats carry on the tradition. Certainly, we should expect to see Jacob deGrom, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso accomplish similar feats to those Mets teams.
Friday nights are the perfect time for these jerseys. By limiting it, it prevents the issue fans previously had where the regular jerseys were almost entirely phased out for the black.
Of course, there’s also hope the Mets still embrace the blue alternates. It would be great to see Mr. Met return to the sleeve and have them worn on Family Sundays at Citi Field.
Overall, it’s great to see the Mets bringing back a fan favorite jerseys and treating them like a special event. Hopefully, it is something which stays well past this season.
Each of the Home Run Derby contestants wore the number 44 in honor of the late Hank Aaron. Much like Aaron once before him, Pete Alonso once again established himself as the real home run king.
First, Alonso knocked off Salvador Perez. Then, he squared off against Juan Soto. Alonso did so well that round, he actually used his time out solely for the purpose of hyping the crowd.
Pete Alonso called timeout two HRs away from eliminating Juan Soto to hype up the crowd ? pic.twitter.com/qrY1vLvGIJ
— ESPN (@espn) July 13, 2021
Finally, Alonso faced Trey Mancini in the finals. The cancer survivor was a crowd favorite, and really everyone on that planet, except Mets fans, were rooting for him.
Mancini had a great round hitting 22 homers. That just so happened to be the same amount Vlad Guerrero Jr. hit two years ago. Once again, Alonso beat that number.
PETE ALONSO WINS IT!
Back-to-back #HRDerby champion ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/6HXaG0PSIm
— ESPN (@espn) July 13, 2021
In total, Alonso hit a very nice 69 total homers. If not for his going second in his matchups against Soto and Mancini, he very likely would’ve hit more. Those homers traveled a combined 26 miles.
With that, Alonso joins Ken Griffey, Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes as the only players to successfully defend their title. There’s every chance Alonso can and will go for the three peat, sorry three Pete, next year in Los Angeles.
There have been many great at this event, but Alonso could be the best ever at this. Really, he’s to the Home Run Derby what Jacob deGrom is to pitching.
Speaking of deGrom, he won the Cy Young in 2019 when Alonso won the Home Run Derby. It looks like that feat will be repeated this year. Certainly, we can also expect the Mets to have a big second half much like they had that year as well.