Musings
Going back to 2015, Noah Syndergaard arguably had the best career ahead of him out of any of the Mets proverbial five aces. He had just unparalleled stuff, and he had the swagger to back it up. More than that, he was a big game pitcher.
We saw Syndergaard come out of the bullpen in Game 5 of the NLDS to shut down the Los Angeles Dodgers for an inning. He followed that with a win in Game two of the NLCS, and he would be the only Mets pitcher to win a game in the World Series. You could see greatness in Syndergaard in those moments, and greatness would ensue.
In 2016, Syndergaard would fulfill every bit of his promise. He was a true ace, and he emerged as an All-Star and top 10 in Cy Young voting. To date, he is probably the only pitcher to go toe-to-toe with Madison Bumgarner in the postseason. In that game, Syndergaard actually outpitched Bumgarner over his seven innings, but unfortunately, there were two more innings in that game.
After that, we excepted Syndergaard to do what Jacob deGrom essentially did. The problem was Syndergaard faced injuries and the Mets medical staff as run by Jeff Wilpon. There was the torn lat, and then two years later, he required Tommy John surgery. That Tommy John rehab was interred with by a minor injury and COVID19.
This wasn’t new to the Mets. This is akin to what happened to Zack Wheeler. They saw it happen. It took Wheeler two years to get back on the mound. Then, it took him another half of a season just to get up to speed again. After that Wheeler was terrific, and then, he was out the door to Philadelphia as the Mets showed little to no interest in re-signing him.
The final indignity with Wheeler was Brodie Van Wagenen taking shots at him. Wheeler responded by being one of the best pitchers in baseball. In fact, he is a finalist for the 2021 Cy Young. While some sycophants may want to tell you otherwise, this was apparent at the time Wheeler hit free agency.
This is the same exact situation the Mets found themselves with Syndergaard. Actually not quite because they were going to get the opportunity to keep Syndergaard BEFORE he rebounded post Tommy John. Moreover, Syndergaard loved New York, and he wanted to stay. You couldn’t have scripted a perfect situation for the Mets.
They had the opportunity to learn from the Wheeler mistake. They were going to be able to keep an ace at a discount. They were going to be able to prove the organization was not in complete disarray as it looked with the president of baseball operations and GM search. Put another way, they could show the world this wasn’t just a more financially solvent version of the Wilpon run Mets.
Instead, Syndergaard is bolting for the Los Angeles Angels for a one year $21 million deal. No, Syndergaard didn’t get a multi-year deal. He ONLY received $2.6 million more from the Angels. The Mets lost Syndergaard over $2.6 million. This is so inexplicably and embarrassingly Wilponian.
While the Angels were talking with Syndergaard, the Mets were botching their GM search and choosing the worst possible candidate in Billy Eppler. Like he did with Jose Reyes and Daniel Murphy, Alderson decided it wasn’t worth keeping a homegrown Mets player and build around him and let him flourish because he could get a compensatory second round pick.
This all makes you question how soon before Michael Conforto and Marcus Stroman are gone and replaced with lesser players? After all, that’s been Alderson’s MO with the Mets. Steve Cohen was supposed to change that, but as we’ve seen so far, it’s the same old with Alderson.
Really, everything sucks right now with the Mets, and you have no idea where it goes from here.
Maybe, it’ll work out. Maybe, the real problem in Los Angeles was Arte Moreno. With the Wilpons, you don’t have to convince New York Mets fans of that.
That said, there’s nothing to like about the Mets hiring Billy Eppler as the New GM.
You’re stuck as to where to begin on how this is a bad choice, and you’re left wondering why the Mets didn’t just delay this process longer. After all, this is someone who couldn’t build a winner with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, who is now entasked can with building a winner around Jacob deGrom and Francisco Lindor.
It doesn’t make sense. That’s even before you consider his free agent signings make the Bobby Bonilla deal seem like a bargain. The problem for Eppler was he never turned Justin Upton into a David Wright.
A big reason why is Eppler has a very poor draft and player development track record with the Angels. With respect to the Mets, it’s the one of the few things they did well, so the hope is their existent structure can offset one of Eppler’s many weaknesses.
However, in many ways, none of this is Eppler’s biggest issue. No, Eppler’s biggest issue is he hired Mickey Callaway.
Like Alderson, Eppler hired the worst kept secret in baseball. Like Alderson, he kept Callaway employed while he harassed women.
Undoubtedly, Eppler will blame Joe Maddon, who really wanted Callaway. Moreover, he can blame the owner who pushed to hire Maddon and give him what he wants.
It’s akin to Alderson. Most are aware Callaway was hired by Jeff Wilpon. Alderson wanted Kevin Long or Brad Ausmus, a manager actually hired by Eppler.
In a way, that might be one of the positives we try to tell ourselves. Alderson and Eppler are aligned in many ways. We also hear Eppler is good friends with David Stearns, who is the real target. The other bonus is he’s not Brodie Van Wagenen.
However, in the end, this amounts to nothing more than talking ourselves into a bad hire. We can continue to do it until the Mets hire the president of baseball operations they ultimately want to hire.
One of the more coveted free agent outfielders at the moment is Starling Marte. He really stands out among a very thin crowd due to his speed, his ability to play center, and his not having a qualifying offer attached.
Marte is coming off a season where he had a 4.7 WAR while hitting .310/.383/.458 with 27 doubles, three triples, 12 homers, and 55 RBI. He led the majors in stolen bases while being successful in 47 of his 52 stolen base attempts. Marte had a career high 133 wRC+, and he had a 3 OAA in center.
Part of the career high 133 wRC+ were some big positives. Marte had a career best 8.3 BB%. The 39.6 hard hit percentage was also the best of his career. The 8.4 barrel percentage was also the very best of his career. Really, across the board, this was the best year of his career at the plate.
When you combine the bat with the base running and defense, it was an All-Star caliber season. In fact, by WAR, it was the fourth best year of his career. This should be the exact type of player you want to invest in during free agency. If you get him, your team should be thrilled.
Well, maybe.
There are some real red flags for Marte. First and foremost, with his turning 33 after the 2021 season was over, Marte is firmly, at least by age, on the outside of the prime seasons of his career. This may or may not be fair to Marte, but we have seen it several times.
For every Carlos Beltran with the Cardinals and Yankees or Curtis Granderson with the Mets, you get a lot of busts. The history of free agency is replete with them. When you sign players that age, it’s difficult to ascertain which way the rest of their career is going to go. That would be an argument to try to get Marte to a short-term deal, but with the amount of suitors, that may not be possible.
There are other issues beyond age. While there were some real standout numbers driving the career best 133 wRC+, there were some problematic numbers. While Marte has always had a higher BABIP, he had a .369 BABIP, a number which is going to drop precipitously. Even with the hard hit rate and barrels, Marte’s .148 ISO was the third worst of his career, and it was the second straight year his ISO dropped. It should also be noted his average exit velocity was one of the worst in the majors.
More alarming with Marte is his speed. Like with the ISO, he’s had a two year drop in sprint speed. With the drop in speed comes some problems because much of his value is wrapped up in his speed. His speed is behind his terrific base running. It is why his BABIPs have been traditionally high. It is a driving force of his defense.
Overall, Marte is a very good player. We don’t know how long he will be very good. We don’t know what his regression will look like. Perhaps, it will be gradual. Maybe, he will fall off a cliff. Standing here right now, it is very difficult to know how 2022 and the ensuing years will go for Marte.
In the end, if your team signs Marte, you should be very happy. Marte is a very good player and a real difference maker. That said, there are some real areas of concern, and no one should be surprised if he can’t replicate his 2021 season. No one should be surprised if he can’t replicate even an average Marte season.
There were two interesting tidbits early on in free agency regarding Kris Bryant. First, the New York Mets rushed to talk to Scott Boras about him. Second, the San Francisco Giants may not have interest in bringing Bryant back.
When an organization like the Giants has their doubts after seeing him up close, it should give you pause. They’re not infallible, but if the reports are indeed true, it requires further examination.
As written about previously, Bryant is a very poor fielder. In fact, Bryant posted a negative OAA at first (-1), third (-4), short (-1), and right (-4). Overall, he had a -9 OAA, which rated him as the 13th worst fielder in the majors.
The fact Bryant plays so many positions is a paradox. On the one hand, it could be argued moving around as much as he does prevents him from focusing and improving at any one position. Conversely, it could be he’s so poor everywhere, teams need to move him around to try to hide him.
It’s Schrödinger’s cat. You don’t know which it is until you sign him to play a position. Not until that point will you know if he needs to return to third, focus on the corner OF, or quite possibly DH. For the $150+ million deal he may get, that’s a very risky proposition.
Truth be told, no one is signing Bryant for his glove. They’re signing him for his bat.
Here’s the thing, Bryant isn’t the elite-elite hitter he once was. Over the first three years of his career, he was a 141 OPS+. For varying reasons, he’s no longer that hitter.
Since 2018, Bryant has been a 122 OPS+ hitter. That’s still very good, but it’s short of being the elite hitter Bryant once was. This, in turn, means Bryant’s bat can’t mask his defense.
Bryant’s seen his launch angle decline over the years. Until this year, his strikeout rating worsened gradually. There are some theories including his long swing.
It is something he has worked to address his entire career. He did seem to make progress last year with pitchers getting him out with the high fastball. He’s very good, but the question is can he keep it up. There are doubts.
In some ways, while the swings are different, Bryant might face the same challenges Evan Longoria did. Like Bryant, Longoria had a lot of moving parts and an athletic swing.
It was around 30 Longoria had a drop-off at the plate. After that, he wasn’t the same player. At least not until the Giants organization had a radical analytical overhaul. Finally, we got to see something closer to the prime Longoria.
What this means for Bryant is anyone’s guess. Maybe he can avoid the career downturn Longoria experienced. Maybe, it’s unavoidable.
What we do know is the Mets aren’t currently constituted to take that risk. Bryant increasingly looks like a 1B/DH, and there’s real questions about that bat going forward. While the Mets have made strides, they don’t have the infrastructure to delay or mitigate Bryant’s eventual career regression.
Remember the issue with Bryant isn’t necessarily 2022 or 2023. It’s what comes next. While other organizations, like the Giants, are built for that, the Mets aren’t, at least not yet.
After all, how could they without a president of baseball operations or GM. For that matter, they don’t have a hitting coach. As a result, they just can’t take the Bryant risk right now. There are better options and better fits for the franchise, and the Mets should look in those directions.
Because it’s what Scott Boras does, he held court at the GM Meetings. During that time, he drummed up hype for Michael Conforto calling him the “King of Queens” and the “Ace of many GM’s hearts.”
"He's basically become the King of Queens. In free agency now, he's kind of like the ace of many GM's hearts."
Scott Boras says the interest level in Michael Conforto has been "extraordinary": pic.twitter.com/rvCJjtKPMy
— SNY (@SNYtv) November 10, 2021
Of course, because it’s Boras, and the New York Mets are the New York Mets, Boras took a shot at the Mets. This time, instead of criticizing how they won’t spend (Steve Cohen is not the Wilpons), he mocked them for being the only team without a GM at the GM Meetings.
Alderson couldn’t let this slight stand. So, he made sure to take it out on Conforto, a player who literally teared up on the field at the prospect of playing his last game in a Mets uniform.
Sandy Alderson responds to Scott Boras' comments on Michael Conforto
"Those comments I would characterize as a blowhard in a house of cards" pic.twitter.com/JOTcV8sj1a
— SNY (@SNYtv) November 11, 2021
Conforto was an All-Star. He hit two homers in a World Series game. He emerged as a leader. He’s been one of the best homegrown position players in Mets history, and he’s scattered across the top 10 in the record books.
Put the Boras hype aside. This was a very good player for your franchise. He’s been a good citizen the franchise continuously put in harm’s way without so much as a complaint from him (at least not publicly). This is a player who deserves respect, and frankly, this is the exact player you should want to keep.
But no, Alderson thinks calling Conforto a terrific player deserving of a big contract is just Boras being a blowhard. That’s an awfully nice way to treat Conforto.
But this is the standard course for Alderson. He eventually grows to have no use for Mets homegrown players, especially when he can get draft pick compensation – just ask Daniel Murphy and Jose Reyes for starters.
But hey, he always fails to adequately replace the players he unceremoniously dumps. Good thing he’s standing in the way of a president of baseball operations or GM who’d look to keep the good players the franchise produces and not needlessly insult them on their way out.
The New York Mets seem to have narrowed down their GM search to former Washington Nationals assistant GM Adam Cromie. If we’re at this point, that’s a real problem.
First and foremost, Cromie has been out of baseball for four years. After being rebuffed by nearly everyone in baseball, the Mets are now turning to people who are no longer in the game. It’s seriously come to that.
That’s not to say Cromie isn’t capable of ever doing the job. In fact, he was well on his way to being just this when he helped build the Washington Nationals into a World Series winner.
However, that was four years ago. Since then, he’s been a young associate with a big firm in Jones Day. While Cromie has assuredly kept up with the goings on in baseball, there is simply no way he could have the same in-depth knowledge he had with the Nationals.
That’s a massive problem.
Look, there is no doubt Cromie is smart and talented. Realistically speaking, he can very well be an asset to any MLB organization. He’s had experience developing analytical systems, analyzing players, and building World Series champions. If you can get a Cromie, you get one.
However, he’s been away so long he doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. The Mets can ill afford having someone like that lead the organization.
The simple truth is the way the Wilpons operated the organization, the Mets were way too far behind in terms of analytics. It’s not that their baseball people didn’t want to invest more or learn more, it’s that the Wilpons didn’t.
Part of what the Mets need to be doing is building that area of their front office from scratch. They have to bring in the people who knew the stuff Cromie will as trying to find the people who know the things no one else does.
This is a Herculean task made all the more difficult by hiring someone outside of the game. Cromie certainly knows some people, but he doesn’t know the ones who have emerged. He also has the impossible task of bringing people to the organization at a time when other franchises have been trying to block the Mets from hiring their people.
There’s another element at play with Cromie potentially being hired away from Jones Day.
Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News previously reported Mets owner Steve Cohen had been eschewing the advice of his baseball people in the president of baseball operations and GM search. Instead, Cohen has looked to non-baseball people like former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
Governor Christie has multiple connections with that law firm. No, this is not a political issue, and it certainly has nothing to do with Bridgegate. Given his area of expertise and relative novice, Cromie would have had zero involvement and very likely zero interaction with the former governor.
That said, it’s very likely Cromie’s connection to this search is through Jones Day. He’s an employee for a firm with connections to the governor. IF that’s the case, this is a problem.
No, it’s not a problem because Cromie isn’t qualified (he is). It’s more of a problem with how the search has been conducted. This is akin to how the Wilpons conducted their business. It was personal connections and not the baseball people who dictated what they did.
If Cohen made a hire this important operating like the Wilpons, that’s a huge issue. If not, no harm, no foul.
Overall, Cromie is probably the Mets should’ve had interest hiring in some capacity. Asking him to be a GM after being away from the game for four years to taking over a franchise which was arguably at least a decade behind a year ago really isn’t the right move.
That’s just where the Mets are right now. They’re stuck looking for people outside the game using unconventional means to find people. That is the biggest problem of all.
When Michael Conforto declined the qualifying offer, the presumption has been that ended his New York Mets career. If so, that’s a mistake.
Over his seven year career, Conforto has a 124 OPS+. He’s also put up 5 OAA in RF and a 9 OAA in left. On any given season, you can and should expect that 120+ OPS+ with a 1+ OAA.
That’s a good MLB player. Yes, we get Mets fans wanted more and got frustrated. Nonsense narratives emerged that he’s not good or clutch because of it. Many just sang a new player for its own sake.
People say that despite getting burned again and again with that juvenile mindset. It’s really better to be somewhat frustrated with a good player who can handle New York than a simply worse player.
We also know Conforto is capable of greatness. We saw it in the World Series. We saw it before his injury in 2016. We saw it in 2017. After that injury, we saw it begin to re-emerge at the end of 2019 and all of 2020.
He’s coming off a year where he got off to a slow start due to COVID and injuries. It took a while, but Conforto was Conforto again to close out the season.
In the second half, Conforto hit .252/.347/.445. Over his last 53 games, he hit .275/.372/.461. We know that Conforto and know he can be that for a full season. We know he can and probably will grow from there with a much better hitting coach.
Assuredly, Mets fans want the flashier makes. They don’t quite make sense for the Mets.
Nick Castellanos can’t play the outfield (-42 career OAA in RF), and he had startling home/road splits. Like Castellanos, Kris Bryant is a better hitter, but he has similar defensive issues. Over the last three years, Bryant has a -7 OAA at third and -4 OAA in the outfield.
For a team whose success last year was mostly predicated on pitching and defense, Castellanos and Bryant present a step backwards.
Starling Marte is an interesting option as he’s still a terrific fielder and base runner. The pause on him is his exit velocities haven’t been great, his launch angle is declining, and much of his offensive success this year was BABIP driven.
Marte has the profile of a player who will regress. That’s very problematic for a player turning 34 next year and looking for a big contract. Worse yet, past Marte, there really isn’t another everyday option on the free agent market, at least not one who can replicate or improve on Conforto.
All told, we know what Conforto can be, and he’s coming off a bad year. The Mets will likely get a discount (albeit not a home town one) from what they’d get if Conforto was coming off a big year, which he’ll likely have in 2022.
The Mets and their fans can be frustrated Conforto didn’t prove to be more than he was all they want. However, truth be told, Conforto is still the best fit for this team, and the Mets should take all reasonable measures to keep him.
Eduardo Perez announced the shocking and sad news that former Mets reliever Pedro Feliciano died in his sleep. While the cause of death was not known, we do know on the eve of what proved to be his final MLB season, Feliciano was diagnosed with a non-life threatening heart condition causing an irregular heartbeat.
We are deeply saddened to hear about the passing of Pedro Feliciano. ?https://t.co/Y1DARwiMbc
— New York Mets (@Mets) November 8, 2021
The irony is with the New York Mets you never had to question Feliciano’s heart. The man was always at the ready, and it would eventually lead to him being dubbed by Gary Cohen as Perpetual Pedro. Time and again, Feliciano took the ball, and he would deliver.
With the passing of Feliciano, the Mets have lost the greatest LOOGY in team history. He may go down as one of if not the best ever. Consider that in a two year span he made more appearances than any left-handed reliever had made in MLB history. In fact, he was the only MLB reliever in history to put up three straight seasons with 85+ appearances.
The reason this happened was because Feliciano was both great and durable (just don’t tell that to the New York Yankees). He was almost always great. Case-in-point, in his first ever postseason appearance, he relieved John Maine in the fifth inning of the first game of the 2006 NLDS to strike out should be Hall of Famer Kenny Lofton to escape a jam and help the Mets win the game.
Overall, he had a 1.93 ERA that postseason getting the Mets out of a number of difficult spots. Feliciano would actually be the winner of the series closing Game 3 of that NLDS. That would make him the very last Mets pitcher to win a clinching game in the Shea Stadium era of the franchise.
He is a figure who should have a much higher stature in franchise history than he already has. In fact, only John Franco has appeared in more games as a reliever. Feliciano’s .212 batting average against and .263 wOBA against left-handed batters are the best in franchise history, both by significant margins.
When we lost Feliciano, we truly lost a great Met. In many ways, he was the quintessential Met. This was a player overlooked by everyone else, and he went out there and gave it his all. He was truly great at what he did even if the fame he should have received was fleeting. While there were other stops, at least in terms of the Major Leagues, Feliciano was only a Met.
May God bless Feliciano and his family. While that certainly includes the millions of Mets fans now in mourning, that especially applies to the wife and children who lost a great pitcher and better man.
When Brandon Crawford wins the Gold Glove, it’s difficult to say the runners up were robbed. That said, even with his numbers, reputation, and prowess, Crawford was not the best defensive SS in the NL in 2021.
There are different stats to measure, but taking the totality of them, it would seem Francisco Lindor should’ve won the award.
Looking first at OAA, Lindor’s 20 was the best in the NL. It far outpaced Crawford and his 15. It also far outpaced fellow finalist, Kevin Newman, who had a 4 OAA. Crawford and Newman ranked third and eighth respectively.
While Newman was eighth in OAA, he tied with Trevor Story with a 9 DRS for tops in the NL. Crawford was third with 6, and Lindor was tied for fourth with 4.
We’d see Lindor make the most out of zone (OOZ) plays of any MLB SS. He tied with Newman with the second best success rate (77%) in the NL. Lindor’s 5% success rate added was the best in the majors.
Put another way, Lindor didn’t just make the plays a SS is supposed to make. We also saw Lindor get to balls and make plays other SS couldn’t this year. He was steady and brilliant.
All told, Crawford, Lindor, and Newman had terrific years defensively. You can add Story to that mix as well. However, when all was said and done Lindor was just able to make more plays that the others couldn’t. That’s why he deserved the Gold Glove.
In a surprise, Kevin Pillar is a free agent. While it was reasonable to presume the New York Mets would decline his option, it was a complete shock Pillar declined his.
Pillar will be 33 on Opening Day next season. He’s coming off a year where he had a career worst 0.5 WAR (for a full season). That’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Pillar has been at an 88 OPS+ in the last two full seasons. This is a slight dip from his career best in 2015 when he was still below league average. In fact, Pillar has never been above league average in any full season.
That was acceptable when defense was his calling card. It’s really not that case anymore. Aside from 2016, when he was an astounding 11 OAA, he’s been between a 1 to -2 OAA in the outfield.
That’s not to suggest he’s bad. He’s not. Rather, he’s an average fielder who is a below average bat. That makes him a rotation, platoon, or bench player. He’s not a starter.
Judging from Baseball Savant, Pillar has issues. He’s not driving the ball, and his contact rate is in decline. Same goes for his eye. His speed remains good, but that’s also been slipping.
That’s the biggest issue with Pillar. He appears to be a player in decline. He had a safety net with the Mets with a fair $2.9 million option. With that one year, he had an opportunity to re-establish value.
Pillar passed.
While betting on himself is admirable, it might be misguided. It’s highly unlikely he finds a starting job. After all, he was offered a part-time role with the Mets after a decent 2020.
This leaves him again seeking out a bench role. Maybe he finds it without needing to resort to a non-roster invite. Maybe he even finds a team who can provide a decent role, albeit likely not one with as much playing time as the Mets could’ve offered.
Overall, Pillar either bet on himself or got out of a place he no longer wanted to play. He gambled he’d get a better role, salary, and/or chance to win. At this moment, it’s difficult to see that happening, which is why Pillar should’ve stayed with the Mets.