Musings
Weird things happen in the MLB postseason. Since the expanded postseason format, things rarely, if ever, goes as planned.
The first expansion was in 1969. The New York Mets shocked the world that year. Even though the Mets had won 100 games, they beat the favored Atlanta Braves in the first ever NLCS.
The Mets went on to shock the world by beating the 109 win Baltimore Orioles in the World Series.
Four years later, behind the Tug McGraw mantra of “Ya Gotta Believe!” the 1973 Mets won the NL East with only 82 wins. That team beat the Cincinnati Reds in five games (back when the NLCS was five games) to advance to the World Series.
To hear Howie Rose tell it, if Yogi Berra pitched George Stone in Game 6 instead of Tom Seaver, that team likely wins the World Series. Still, an 82 team in the World Series highlights how crazy things can happen.
In 2015, aided by a Washington Nationals choke job (insert Jonathan Papelbon–Bryce Harper joke), the 2015 Mets won the division. Daniel Murphy became Babe Ruth, and the Mets trio of Jacob deGrom–Matt Harvey–Noah Syndergaard led the Mets to the pennant.
If not for Terry Collins, the Mets win the 2015 World Series. He was as bad as you can be, and the Mets largely didn’t win because of him.
It’s also worked against the Mets.
The Mets dominated the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 1988 season. However, Orel Hershiser would come up huge, and he’d help the Dodgers with a huge upset. Fueled by Kirk Gibson’s shocking homer in Game 1, the Dodgers beat what could’ve been seen as an all-time great Oakland Athletics team.
In 2000, the Mets had some luck with the St. Louis Cardinals beating the Atlanta Braves. That cleared the way for the Mets to beat the Cardinals and win the pennant.
In the World Series, they faced off against an 87 win New York Yankees team, who ended that season on the verge of an epic collapse to miss the postseason. If Todd Zeile’s ball bounces over the wall, or Armando Benitez throws a strike who knows?
The less said about that World Series, the better.
In 2006, the Mets were the best team in baseball and seemed destined to win the World Series. El Duque got hurt warming up the NLDS, Billy Wagner faltered in the postseason like he always does, and Carlos Beltran struck out looking.
Meanwhile, we watched on with horror as the 83 win Cardinals beat an imploding Detroit Tigers team to win the World Series.
No matter the win total, if the Mets make the postseason, they will be sputtering in. Who cares?
This is still a team who can win a World Series. Everything they need is here.
Nolan McLean is a real ace, and Edwin Díaz is the best closer in baseball. As we saw with the Dodgers last year, you can win getting 2-3 innings from everyone.
We’ve already seen that Clay Holmes–Sean Manaea piggyback work well. It can certainly work with the rest of the staff.
Pete Alonso and Juan Soto had series winning homers last postseason. Francisco Lindor led the way like he’s doing during the current stretch run. Mark Vientos shook off late season struggles to be the Mets best player last postseason.
This Mets team can win the World Series. They have what it takes. They just need to get there. Even if you’re still skeptical, just look at past postseasons to look at how crazy things get.
Due to injuries, the New York Mets had to recall Ronny Mauricio sooner than they wanted. That has led to them carrying him on the roster longer than they should’ve.
Over his last 20 games, he is hitting .217/.277/.417. Since the All-Star break, he is hitting .227/.277/.409. On the season, he has a 100 wRC+ and a 28.0 K%.
He’s been a pull hitter who hits a lot of ground balls. With him being a slow mostly left-handed batter, that’s a bad combination.
Truth is, like his first cup of coffee in the majors, he surprised before gradually declining in production. Digging through the metrics, he is only hitting the fastball, and his exit velocities are low.
We’re at the point that all he does well is play third. On that note, his OAA has slipped a bit. Even if you don’t subscribe entirely to that, the eye test confirmed that in Milwaukee. There was also the error against the Cincinnati Reds.
All told, Mauricio has been overmatched at the plate, and his defense is slipping. He still needs more work. If it was good enough for Francisco Álvarez, the Mets can and should send Mauricio to Triple-A Syracuse.
Sending down Mauricio would also allow the Mets to recall Luisangel Acuña. This team desperately needs Acuña back on the roster.
At the moment, Francisco Lindor is slumping and extremely frustrated. We’re now seeing him struggle a bit on the field and carry his frustrations into the dugout.
Lindor has slumped since breaking his toe. He’s not hitting, and he’s mentally frustrated. Problem is the Mets can’t give him a day off even to DH because there are no other shortstops on the roster.
It isn’t just giving Lindor a day. If Acuña was running for Starling Marte, Acuña scores. Same could be said for Tyrone Taylor. Perhaps Carlos Mendoza uses one if he had two sets of fresh legs instead of one.
Acuña presents more versatility and options. He plays up the middle (2B, 3B, CF) and third. He can run, steal bases, and bunt. He gives the opportunity to give Lindor a rest, and it also helps by giving the Mets less Brett Baty.
It’s a good time to recall Acuña too. Jett Williams was promoted to Syracuse. Promotion Acuña opens more games at SS for Williams. It’s also a good time because Acuña is 7-for-23 (.304) since being sent down.
The Mets need Acuña now to help Lindor and help clear a path for Williams. They need Mauricio to get out of the limelight and work on his holes like Álvarez did.
The Mets are in trouble. This is something that needs to be done immediately to help the team.
When you look at the New York Mets offense, it seems everyone is worse than they were last year. The fans are starting to point fingers at Eric Chavez again. As is usual with hitting coaches, they shoulder the blame . . . fair or not.
Chavez or not, two players make you question how good Chavez has been – Mark Vientos and Francisco Álvarez.
Vientos came up from Triple-A Syracuse and raked. He had a 133 wRC+. Among Major League third basemen, only Jose Ramirez was better offensively. That success carried into the postseason where Vientos was great.
That success hasn’t carried forward into this year. There’s a number of reasons including inconsistent playing time and injuries. All told, he’s at an 81 wRC+.
There’s enough there, including a sophomore slump, where you don’t have to even consider Chavez. That brings us to Alvarez.
Like Vientos, Álvarez struggled out of the gate. There were also reasons like a new swing and being injured entering the season. Being a first time father also shouldn’t be discounted.
Since Álvarez has options remaining (Vientos didn’t), he was sent down to Syracuse to work with hitting coach Rick Guarno to get his swing right. He was also there to get his defense back on track.
Álvarez fixed his swing and defense in Syracuse. Since being recalled, he’s hitting .278/.395/.500 with three doubles, a triple, homer, and four RBI.
It’s telling that Álvarez couldn’t get the help he needed at the Major League level. That’s not unusual for young players. That said, looking at him and Vientos, it should make you at least question what they’re doing right in Syracuse that’s not translating in Queens.
Again, it may not be Chavez’s fault. Different messaging helps. On that front, it’s notable Pete Alonso is having his best year since 2022.
The 2022 season was Chavez’s first as the Mets hitting coach. In the subsequent two years Alonso had a significant drop-off. He’s now back at his 2022 level of production. Part of the reason is his agent Scott Boras:
For the first time in his seven-year career, Alonso is using external help to assist him with research, digest data and create personal plans against pitchers. The information comes from people affiliated with his agent, Scott Boras, and from people at his Tampa, Fla.-based workout group, Diesel Optimization, among others. He explained it as something like a front office just for him.
The Athletic, Will Sammon
It’s telling Alonso went outside the organization to get the assistance he felt he needed to get back to his level of production. It’s more telling that it worked.
Seeing how the outside help brought Alonso back to his best, we should at least look at some of the Mets other hitters.
Juan Soto had a 181 wRC+ with the New York Yankees. He’s now at a 143. That 143 would be his worst season mark since his first full professional season.
Soto is still awesome. He’s just a little less awesome than he’s been over the past four years.
Brandon Nimmo was an elite leadoff hitter with a great walk rate. In 2022, he had a 132 wRC+ (down from the previous two years) and a 10.5 BB%. He’s now down to a 117 wRC+ and 8.0 BB%.
Francisco Lindor finished second in MVP voting in 2024. He had a career best 137 wRC+. Being fair here, Lindor has been his best at the plate with Chavez as hitting coach.
Yes, Lindor is having a down year at the plate, but we all saw a drop off after the broken toe. You can’t pinpoint that on anyone.
Looking at the Mets top players, it appears only Lindor has been at his best with Chavez at the helm. Young players like Alvarez and Vientos were better working with the Triple-A hitting coaches.
Moreover, we’re not seeing Brett Baty or Ronny Mauricio develop into the hitters they were promised to be. Coupled with Álvarez and Vientos, something is just off here.
That’s not to say Chavez is at fault. It’s possible what he’s conveying is helping, but it’s also clear there’s a gap where players aren’t getting what they need to produce at the levels we’ve seen them produce.
At some point, Chavez is going to have to be addressed and scrutinized. The Mets offense is too talented for these results. The best hitters have seen a drop off in production working with Chavez.
Something is very wrong here. If it’s not Chavez, it’s something. It’s well past time the Mets figure it out.
At the trade deadline, the New York Mets acquired Cedric Mullins from the Baltimore Orioles. While widely praised, it was a move that did not really improve the Mets.
The Cedric Mullins of 2021-2022 was a star who left an impression. Truth is, he was only at that level for two years. The subsequent two years he went to serviceable to a bench level player this year.
The player the Mets acquired has a 0.1 WAR, 101 wRC+, and a 2 OAA. This is the player the Mets acquired due to the season ending injury to Jose Siri and the struggles of Tyrone Taylor.
With respect to Taylor, he has a 0.6 WAR, 55 wRC+, and a 4 OAA. As we saw, it was diminishing returns at the plate for Taylor. He is much better suited as a defensive replacement and platoon bat against left-handed pitchers.
Seeing that, the Mets moved Jeff McNeil to CF. The results have been quite positive. In limited duty in center, he has a 0 OAA. He’s already made some highlight plays.
Offensively, he has a 123 wRC+. He gives the most value at the plate for a Mets offense that seemingly can’t get out of their own way.
McNeil was holding his own in center and improving. That said, he was obviously better defensively at second where he has a 3 OAA. He’s excellent there, and moving him off the position creates a problem.
The Mets solution was Brett Baty. Baty has a -1 OAA at second, and he has a 96 wRC+. This right here is the problem.
With Taylor’s struggles, the Mets have overplayed Baty. With consistent playing time, Baty has shown himself to be a below average bat and below average defender at second base.
The bigger issue with Baty is he’s slipping defensively as evidenced by his 10th inning costly error against the Cleveland Guardians. He was once at a 4 OAA, and he’s slipped to a 2 OAA.
Like Taylor, the Mets needed to find a way to get Baty out of the everyday lineup. The answer could have been Ronny Mauricio, but the Mets didn’t fully go that route.
Mauricio has been superior to Baty with a 104 wRC+ and a 6 OAA at third. With his slow foot speed, he’s actually worse at second than Baty.
Mark Vientos has started hitting again, and he is one of the few bats in this lineup that can carry the offense. He’s been hitting well since July 10, and he’s had a number of clutch hits.
Given his defensive limitations, he should be the primary DH with occasional spells at third. That should leave third for Mauricio.
That is what the Mullins trade afforded the Mets. They can put their best team on the field. It’s now up to David Stearns and Carlos Mendoza to do it.
McNeil is the everyday second baseman. That improves the lineup and defense. With Mauricio at third and Mullins in center, Baty moves to the bench.
That defense with Vientos at DH is the Mets optimal lineup. Against left-handed pitchers, they can pivot by getting Taylor into the lineup, and even with Mauricio being a switch hitter, they can play Vientos at third with Starling Marte as the DH.
But make no mistake, the Mets are a better team with Baty as a quality bench player. He can provide late inning defense or a pinch hitting opportunity when needed. That’s when he is at his best.
This is what the Mullins trade afforded the Mets. They can now optimally use their roster. It’s now just time the Mets started doing that.
The New York Mets have a very real starting pitching problem. Ironically, this is happening just as their projected opening day starting rotation is all healthy and together.
We’ve all seen the graphics on SNY. David Peterson is the only starter going 6+ innings. Worse yet, aside from him the other starters have been averaging 4.2 innings per start.
It’s embarrassing, and it probably helped lead to the rash of reliever injuries we’ve seen this season.
Speaking of relievers, Clay Holmes seems to be on fumes. He’s never thrown more than 70 innings in a season. He passed that mark on June 7.
He’s giving five innings now but to varying degrees of success. At the moment, he probably needs more off days between starts, or maybe the Mets should be moving him to the bullpen to prepare for the postseason.
The problem with that plan is Frankie Montas. Montas has been brutal averaging under five innings per start with a 6.68 ERA. He’s flat out giving the Mets no chance to win, and worse yet, he’s exhausting the bullpen for the games they actually could win.
Montas needs to move out of the rotation now. The innings aren’t there and need to come from somewhere.
Everyone is hoping Sean Manae can provide those innings. Right now, he is still working his way back from offseason injury and an elbow injury that appeared during his rehab stint. Last year, he averaged 6+ innings per start in the second half.
Notably, Manae hasn’t thrown more than five innings or 86 pitches in a game. As he continues to get stretched out, that should be two reliable starters
Kodai Senga is the ace, but he’s slipped of late. Over his last four starts, he’s averaging 4.0 innings per start with a 6.19 ERA. Effectively speaking, he’s become Montas.
We do know he’s better with more rest. The Mets need to find it for him, and for Holmes if he is to stay in the rotation.
If and when Paul Blackburn and Tylor Megill are ready to return from injury, they could hop into the rotation. Blackburn is much closer and could rejoin the rotation this week. That said, they are both the five and fly starters that have hampered this Mets bullpen.
The answer to the Mets issues is likely one of Brandon Sproat or Nolan McLean.
Sproat has been great of late, and his recent run seemed to begin when he was working with Francisco Álvarez during Alvarez’s demotion. Over his last six starts, he’s averaging 5+ innings per start. He’s allowed just two earned over his last 33.0 innings while striking out 39.
McLean isn’t on the same hot streak as Sproat, but he’s the more polished pitcher. He’s also giving more innings averaging nearly six innings per start. With Syracuse, he has a 3.01 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, and a 9.6 K/9.
David Stearns has said he’s not calling up any prospect starting pitcher for a spot start. Instead, he will only call them up to join the rotation. The Mets have a definite need for them, and the Mets are running out of other solutions.
Sprout and McLean need to be in the rotation now. It will give more rest to Senga, Manae, Peterson, and Holmes to help their effectiveness. It will get Montas out of the rotation and into the bullpen where he can work on things.
Mostly, it can help the Mets find their fourth starter for the postseason. Of course, they can help them get there too.
By having both in the rotation, the Mets can see which one fares better and is better ready to face Major League batters. They can get more innings to help the bullpen, get more rest for the other starters, win the division, and hopefully win a World Series.
The need has arrived. The Mets can ill afford to wait any longer. Sproat and McLean must be called up now.
Through the proverbial first half of the baseball season, the New York Mets lineup has been top heavy. Fortunately, the Brandon Nimmo – Francisco Lindor – Juan Soto – Pete Alonso top four has been so awesome that the Mets are only a half game out of first place.
If the team wants to get to that next level and back to the NLCS, they’re going to need more help. It can’t just be Jeff McNeil as the only capable hitter past that “Fab Four.”
There are two reasons the bottom half of the Mets lineup hasn’t clicked. First, Jesse Winker has been out most of the year with injuries. Mostly, it has been the struggles of Mark Vientos and Francisco Álvarez.
For both Vientos and Álvarez, injuries have played a part. Vientos had a slow start and then a hamstring injury. Álvarez opened the year on the IL, which complicated his trying to adapt a new swing at the plate.
For Vientos, the slow start and injuries saw him lose the third base job to Brett Baty. With inconsistent playing time, Vientos just couldn’t get back on track.
After Starling Marte and Winker hit the IL, the Mets had no choice than to give Vientos consistent playing time. He’s responded going 7-for-19 with two doubles, a triple, and three RBI. That included that bases clearing go-ahead RBI double.
Vientos gets hot this time of year. Last July, he hit .283/.330/.554. In the second half, he hit 15 of his 27 homers. He carried that forward to that monster postseason he had.
With respect to Álvarez, his struggles led the Mets to send him to Triple-A Syracuse. Not only was the new swing not working, but he was also carrying the offensive struggles behind the dish. Essentially, he regressed in every area of his game.
Well, it appears Álvarez’s new swing is no longer a work in process. He’s now absolutely destroying baseballs.
He’s homered in three straight games, and he’s hit eight homers over his last 13 games. Over his last 12 games, he’s hitting .326/.392/.848 with three doubles, seven homers, and 15 RBI. That’s the slugger we expected him to be.
For Álvarez, it’s more than the offense. The work behind the plate has improved as well. Notably, we’ve seen Brandon Sproat take off while working with Álvarez. Nolan McLean has had consecutive 10 strikeout starts with Álvarez behind the plate.
Certainly, Álvarez is rounding back into form, and he should soon find himself back in the majors. When he does, he will replace Luis Torrens, who has struggled mightily at the plate since taking over primary catching duties.
With Álvarez back and Vientos back to form, the Mets lineup is suddenly lethal. Instead of a Fab Four, it’s a Slugging Six. With McNeil, it’s seven All-Star caliber hitters (McNeil is a two time All-Star). They can have Baty and Tyrone Taylor be in the lineup just for their defense.
Ultimately, the Mets lineup is going to be deep and lethal, and they can lead the Mets to the World Series. It just took much longer than we all expected it would.
Looking at the New York Mets, their biggest issue is center field. Tyrone Taylor is struggling mightily at the plate, and who knows when Jose Siri can ever return.
Jeff McNeil has made spot starts in center, but he’s not a long or even short term solution. McNeil no longer has the speed or arm strength.
Surveying the trade market, it’s hard to see a viable option. Right now, the market appears to be Cedric Mullins and the injured Luis Robert Jr. Mullins and Robert are struggling at the plate more than Taylor.
Given the current state of the center field market, the Mets need to focus on moving Luisangel Acuña. This can kill two birds with one stone as the Mets have struggled to find regular playing time for Acuña at the Major League level.
Fortunately, he’s in Syracuse, and he’s actually played some center. Looking at the metrics, he could succeed there.
Acuña has a sprint speed of 29.4 ft/sec. That compares favorably with some of the top defensive center fielders in the game. Put another way, he can cover ground.
Comparing him to Taylor, an excellent defensive center fielders, Acuña runs a hair faster. Acuña has a weaker arm, and he doesn’t have the experience.
We have seen Acuña be a difference maker in the Mets lineup. When going well, he provides dynamic speed and base running.
For the plan to succeed, he needs to focus on center. Of his 11 games in center, he’s only started eight in center. He needs more work there, and the Mets can’t let Drew Gilbert stand in the way.
That doesn’t mean forget about Gilbert. He still needs to play everyday and play a lot of center. It’s a delicate balancing act, but the focus needs to be Acuña in center now.
Ultimately, Acuña can be the center field solution for the Mets. They can use his speed and base running. It’s time to focus on getting him playing time there to get the most out of him and to make the Mets the best possible team they can be.
Mark Vientos was drafted in 2017, and he’s now on his seventh general manager. Maybe that’s part of the reason the Mets keep pushing him aside for other less producing players.
When Vientos was drafted as a shortstop, he was almost immediately moved to third base. He hasn’t been great there defensively, which is a large part of his problem.
The biggest issue for Vientos was Brett Baty being drafted in the first round of the 2019 draft. It was a new regime, and they identified their third baseman of the future.
The other issue has been Ronny Mauricio. In 2017, he was given a then Mets record signing bonus. Mauricio is blocked at his natural shortstop, and the question has been where does he eventually land.
Of these three players, Vientos is the only one with any success at the Major League level. Last season, he was a monster with 27 homers and a 133 wRC+.
Vientos was arguably the Mets best hitter in the postseason. Over the Mets 13 games, Vientos hit .327/.362/.636 with five homers. That included three homers in the NLCS.
We hoped Vientos would springboard from that. Unfortunately, he’s having a lost season.
Typically a slow starter, Vientos had a bad start to the season. Then, he was injured. Somehow he got Wally Pipped by Baty and Mauricio.
Baty has a 92 wRC+. Since June 1, he’s hitting .198/.257/.330. The Mets are pushing him over Vientos for this complete lack of production.
Mauricio has been better with a 107 wRC+. Like Baty, he can’t hit left-handed pitching with a .118/.167/.118 batting line. That is despite the fact Mauricio is a switch hitter.
Since Vientos returned from the IL, he’s started just five games over an eight game stretch. He’s become a short-side platoon option.
Last season, Vientos had a 127 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That’s far better than the numbers Baty and Mauricio are producing. More than that, it’s just solid proof and evidence Vientos can hit right-handed pitching.
It’s gotten real bizarre. In the series finale against the New York Yankees, Carlos Mendoza lifted Vientos for Mauricio. It did work in the short term as Mauricio and Baty would get back-to-back pinch hits.
Now, it needs to be noted it worked in a vacuum. Those consecutive pinch hit singles were part of two run inning which saw the Mets pull within 5-4.
Yankees left-handed reliever Tim Hill allowed a single to Mauricio. That was just his second hit in 18 at-bats against left-handed pitch. Baty, and his 39 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, followed. He hit into a double play ending the Mets last real chance of the day.
The Mets would lose 6-4. It’s just one loss for a team that is having an otherwise very good year. That said, this loss highlighted the Mets biggest problem.
They gave up on Vientos.
Vientos has struggled, and he’s not forcing the Mets to play him. He’s being treated as a short side platoon option, and it’s hurting the team.
Make no mistake, Baty has not been good this year. Mauricio has shown flashes, but he’s still limited. Unlike Vientos, both players are just platoon options.
The Mets have a massive hole at third base. Their lineup is shallow. Both of these issues are directly related to Vientos.
Vientos started the issue by struggling and getting hurt. The Mets made it worse by giving up on him for a player in Baty who continues to show he’s not a starter at the Major League level.
It’s time to give Vientos some run. Let him get back to last year’s form (the same player he was in the minors). If they invest in him, the Mets lineup will be complete, and they will have their best postseason hitter from last year ready to help the team on another deep run.
On June 4, Francisco Lindor was hitting .279/.353/.490, and the Mets were 39-23. In that game, Los Angeles Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin hit Lindor in the foot. As a result, Lindor broke his right foot.
After Lindor broke his toe, he got a day off. The Mets did lose to the Dodgers, and they followed that with a sweep of the Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals.
Over that stretch, Lindor wasn’t great. Part of the reason is he pushed it. In his first start, he was 3-for-5 while stealing two bases.
Maybe it was pride. Maybe it was proving to Carlos Mendoza he was good to go. Whatever the case, he pushed it, and he hasn’t been good since. Neither have the Mets.
Since that 3-for-5 game, Lindor is hitting .163/.218/.288 with four doubles and two homers. He hasn’t attempted another stolen base.
Over that stretch, the Mets are 7-14 with embarrassing sweeps to the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates. They went from 4.5 games up in the division to 1.5 games back of the Philadelphia Phillies.
What is all the more frustrating is this is happening while Juan Soto has been a monster. He arguably had the greatest offensive month in Mets history, and it still couldn’t prevent the annual June Swoon.
Now, this isn’t all Lindor. The rotation is falling apart. In this month alone Kodai Senga, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill went down, and Sean Manaea had a setback in his rehab.
That has led to more starts/appearances for Paul Blackburn and Blade Tidwell. It’s exhausting the bullpen, and they’re faltering.
Mark Vientos is working his way back, and Francisco Álvarez is trying to rediscover himself in Triple-A. There are issues top to bottom.
We can list the excuses and reasons. Fact is all of these excuses were present last year. Things were far worse. Much of that changed when Lindor turned his season around and became a legit MVP candidate.
The Mets are their best when Lindor is at his best. Problem is Lindor is wounded and struggling. So are the Mets.
It’s a delicate balance, but the Mets need Lindor to be Lindor now. Once he gets going, a lot of the ills should go by the wayside. Hopefully, it’s just a matter of days and not months because the Mets can’t afford another month like June.
By all accounts, Dom Hamel has struggled since his promotion to Triple-A Syracuse last season. This season, it got to the point where Hamel was moved out of the rotation.
There are a number of reasons. His low 90s fastball doesn’t play as well as a starter in the upper limits of the minors. He’s become more of a guy living on the edges than attacking the strike zone. The ensuing walks get you in trouble.
That said, Hamel still does a lot right. He has a high spin sweeper and a change that generates a number of swings and misses. He has a cutter he either needs to complete refine or scrap. He still has a good 12-6 curve.
He’s been far more effective against right-handed batters limiting them to a .222/.276/.284 batting line. He’s struggles against left-handed batters with them hitting .303/.389/.487 against him.
Part of that is he has a plan of attack against right-handed batters. He’s a fastball-sweeper pitcher against them. Against left-handed batters, he hasn’t truly decided on the change or curve as the main secondary pitch.
In the end, he’s not a starter for a few reasons. He’s a two pitch pitcher against right-handed batters. Left-handed batters are feasting on him. He lacks a true third pitch.
However, there are numbers that portend success at the next level.
Hamel strikes out over a batter per inning (10.19 K/9). He has a 43.8 GB%. In his minor league career, his FIP has typically been better than his ERA. There are just some pitchers who perform better at the Major League level, and Hamel just may be one of those guys.
This is a good time to try it too.
Hamel has been pitching well out of the pen. Over his last four appearances, he has struck out 10 over nine innings with a 2.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP.
Being in the bullpen allows him to scrap some pitches and increase some velocity. Working with Jeremy Hefner can get him to another level. In some ways, Hamel can be the effective multiple inning reliever Hefner has helped Jose Butto become.
As we well know, the Mets need multiple inning relievers with their pitching staff being decimated by injuries. It’s not just their being without Sean Manae, Kodai Senga, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill in the rotation and AJ Minter in the bullpen.
There’s the trickle down effect to the bullpen. They’re overtaxed. We are seeing Reed Garrett and Huascar Brazibán wear down and struggle.
Hamel could potentially provide multiple innings to take the burden away from the Mets top relievers. He can eat innings when pitchers like Blade Tidwell falter, or Clay Holmes continues to manage his innings.
If it fails, it fails. Much of what the Mets are doing now is failing. It’s worth a gamble on a multi-inning reliever with a high strikeout and spin rate.
This could be Butto. It could be more of the same. It’s worth a shot.