Musings
After the New York Mets pushed him back a game (two days), Jacob deGrom pitched for the first time in a week. We saw deGrom throw 87 pitches over six innings.
That was a bit of a surprise. After all, deGrom had thrown 95 pitches in 6.2 innings in his last start against the Atlanta Braves.
Remember, deGrom was given an extra couple of days. Part of that was getting Taijuan Walker back into the rotation. Still, there is cause to ask why deGrom didn’t go as long in this game.
As a point of reference, in deGrom’s fifth start last season, he threw 93 pitches over 6.0 innings. What does that mean now? Well, not that much.
In 2021, deGrom was in a much different place. He had a full Spring Training behind him. That’s not the case now.
Yes, deGrom pitched in Spring Training. However, he had to shut it down due to the shoulder injury. He could not throw until May.
During the rehab, deGrom did have a setback. It was not significant, but it did lead to his rehab schedule being delayed.
That’s just it. We see deGrom is still trying to get back up to speed. He has shown that in spurts, especially the earlier innings. After that, there are some signs of fatigue.
As a practical matter, deGrom dominated over six innings. That’s just part of the story.
We saw a pitcher uncomfortable with his fastball. He did throw it, but he was going to the slider note frequently. The end result was typical deGrom dominance.
However, he was tiring Part of the reason was the hot and humid August weather. Mostly, it was deGrom returning from an injury and not having pitched in a full season since 2019.
In the end, it’s just one start. You might’ve expected more and for deGrom to go deeper. The thing is he’s not ready, and mostly, it’s about October. Give it a month, and then let’s talk about how deep deGrom can go into games.
Bottom of the seventh. One out. Oswaldo Cabrera at first. Joely Rodriguez delivers an 0-1 fastball to the pinch hitter Jose Trevino. It’s a weak pop in short right field.
It went for a double.
No, this is not Luis Castillo. Far from it. That said, it’s a play Pete Alonso should’ve made. It’s a play indicative of how Alonso’s defense has slipped considerably this year.
When Alonso first came to the majors, he was not a good first baseman. However, the New York Mets were more than happy to live with it because Alonso could scoop balls, and more importantly, hit homers.
Much to Alonso’s credit, he was not remotely satisfied with that. In fact, he talked about winning a Gold Glove one day, and he made improvements each year.
In his rookie year, Alonso was a -6 OAA. He improved that to a 1 OAA last year. That was good for 11th among Major League first baseman. That’s an astounding leap.
This year, Alonso is back to a -6 OAA.
Again, Alonso is mashing homers and driving in runs. To that extent, not many care all that much the defense has slipped considerably. Even with this game, some may argue it’s yet to hurt the Mets (not true).
For Alonso, it’s arguably taken him completely out of the MVP discussion. There was a time ranking fourth in the league for homers and first in RBI for a first place team made you a near lock for the award.
The problem for Alonso is 2022, and the more informed electorate look at total production, defense included. On that point, Alonso “only” has a 3.0 bWAR and 2.7 fWAR.
That’s despite a 142 OPS+ (seventh in the league) and 138 wRC+ (ninth). His bWAR is tied for 26th in the NL, and his fWAR is 23rd. That’s a far cry from what his offensive production would indicate.
Really, Alonso’s defensive issues impact him more than the occasional poor play. In the end, it’s going to cost him an MVP. That’s not just this year. That’s any year he’s this poor defensively.
So, even if you choose to ignore the impact on the Mets, the voters won’t. In fact, they’ll likely see the hit his defense has had ok his WAR and vote accordingly.
Overall, no matter your perspective, Alonso’s defense has taken a significant step back, and it’s a problem for him and the team. We’ll see how he (and maybe the Mets) address it before the end of the season.
The New York Mets took the first two games of the Subway Series at Citi Field. Because it was the New York Yankees, there was much rejoicing.
Now, the Mets are heading to Yankee Stadium for the final two games of the Subway Series. They appear poised to clinch the series with Max Scherzer and maybe Jacob deGrom slated to pitch.
There are many reasons why this is a big series. First and foremost, all series are big series with the Atlanta Braves trailing by 4.0 games in the division. One slip up, and the NL East race can get more interesting than anyone wants it to be.
There’s also the bigger picture. The Mets trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by eight games for the best record in the NL. It’s a sizable lead, but maybe, just maybe, the Mets can close the gap to get home field advantage in the NLCS.
On that note, the Mets also want to stay up on the St. Louis Cardinals in the event of a potential matchup there. Long story, short, the Mets have eyes on the postseason and their path to the World Series.
Certainly, there is homefield advantage in the World Series. On that front, the Mets lead the Yankees (by four games) and Houston Astros (by a half-game). The Mets want to keep those leads.
So yes, this makes this a big series. The fact there’s the usual buzz for these games adds to it. However, unlike the past, the Mets will not be defined by these games.
When the Subway Series (Interleague Play) began, the Yankees were always a litmus test for the Mets. After all, the Mets were coming off six straight losing seasons, and the Yankees were reigning World Series champions.
However, that was then. Now, Steve Cohen owns the Mets. Unlike the Wilpons, he’s not using the Yankees as a measuring stick bemoaning how the Yankees financial model is unsustainable.
Cohen is building the Mets as a franchise who is a true perennial World Series contender. The Mets measuring sticks are whomever the best teams in baseball are (Yankees are one of them).
The Mets are now defined by how they finish seasons, not by these Subway Series. This means Mets fans can truly enjoy them without unnecessarily attaching any overlying meaning to them.
Unlike what other fan bases may say, the Subway Series is not the Mets World Series. That will come in late October to early November again with Scherzer and deGrom leading the way.
With Carlos Carrasco on the IL, Taijuan Walker battling back spasms, and a doubleheader, the New York Mets are recalling Jose Butto. He will make his Major League debut against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Butto entered the season as MMN’s 11th ranked prospect. After the Chris Bassitt trade with the Oakland Athletics, he moved to the top 10 by Opening Day.
At the moment, Butto is a two pitch pitcher still searching for that third pitch. As of now, it’s an inconsistent curve. In the long run, it would seem a slider would work better with his repertoire and 3/4 arm slot.
That’s the bad news. The good news is he has a lethal fastball/change-up combination. He has above-average command of both pitches, and there is about a 10 MPH difference.
The fastball is around the mid-90s topping out around 90 MPH. Both the fastball and change generate both a high spin and swings-and-misses.
In 20 starts and two relief appearances for Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse, Butto has a 10.2 K/9 while striking out 26.2% of the batters he’s faced. At the moment, the K/9 is on pace for a career high, and the strikeout percentage would be the second best of his career.
In previous seasons, he’s shown better control. That especially goes to last year when he had a 2.2 BB/9. That’s creeped up to a 3.4 this year. However, with the strikeouts and .245 batting average against, he has been effective.
With the walks up and still predominantly being a two-pitch pitcher, Butto has averaged just under five innings per start. That carries the caveat of the Mets being cautious with young starters to begin the season, and his being lifted after one inning in his last start to prepare for his Major League debut.
Overall, he’s 6-6 with a 4.12 ERA, 1.312 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, and a 10.2 K/9.
While there is still some debate over whether he’s a reliever or starter in the long term, that fastball/change combination is Major League caliber. For now, he gets his chance against the Phillies. From there, we’ll see.
The talk surrounding Brandon Nimmo at the moment is what’s wrong with him. How can the Mets get him back to being the Nimmo of old.
He’s too aggressive. He doesn’t have any more power. He just doesn’t seem to have the same joy. We hear from teammates this is a player who is constantly working just to figure it out.
That’s all the bad news. With the way the Mets season is going, there’s no need to focus on that. Let’s be positive.
Brandon Nimmo is the best CF in the NL.
Go ahead, and look it up. Nimmo leads all NL center fielders with a 3.5 fWAR. In fact, he ranks third in all of baseball trailing just Aaron Judge (natural RF) and Byron Buxton.
He’s also the second best outfielder in all of the National League. There he trails Mookie Betts. That’s how good Nimmo is.
At a time where we are wondering what’s wrong with him, he’s among the best in all of baseball. There are a few reasons why.
Believe it or not, one big reason is his defense. Put that one slip up in Atlanta aside. That was uncharacteristic for many reasons for him. It was an anomaly and should be treated as such.
Nimmo currently has a 5 OAA. Believe it or not, that is tied for the second best in the NL. Yes, Nimmo has been that good defensively this season and may well find himself a Gold Glove finalist.
Keep in mind, this underscores just how much defense matters. That goes double with an important position like center field.
Also, while a disappointment year offensively, he’s still provided value.
His 121 wRC+ ranks second among NL center fielders as does his .349 OBP. Keep in mind, this is even in a down season at the plate.
Yes, the 9.1 BB% is on pace to get a career low for a full season by a pretty wide margin. The same goes for his .349 OBP and .407 SLG. There’s some other underlying issues, but all of this may be directly tied to fatigue and approach.
Despite all of that, Nimmo remains a productive lead-off hitter, and he’s one of the best at his position in the league. If he figures it out, he will once again look like one of the most dynamic threats and best lead-off hitter in baseball.
Looking at it all, yes, we can say this is a down year for Nimmo. This just underlies how good he is. When he’s not at the top of his game, he’s still at the top of his position in the league.
For the first time this season, the New York Mets lost a series to an NL East opponent. With it being the second place Atlanta Braves, it may be cause for concern.
Don’t be.
If we go back over the series, this was really a fluke and bad luck. This really had nothing to do with the Braves being better or the Mets being exposed.
In the first two games, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker were injured. That lead to the Braves beating Adonis Medina and RJ Alvarez.
Medina won’t be anywhere near a postseason roster, and Alvarez has already been designated for assignment. Walker isn’t on the IL, and as already noted, with David Peterson and Trevor Williams, the Mets are fine from a starting pitching perspective.
The Mets responded by winning with Max Scherzer. It was closer than expected, and the rain delay likely played a part. Still, the Mets win with Scherzer, and the Braves still can’t hit Edwin Díaz.
The finale, well, it was a frustrating loss reminiscent of the late 1990s. It was also a series of flukes.
The game was 2-2 when Jacob deGrom left the game with one on and two outs in the seventh. Yes, but the Braves made an inspired call with a hit-and-run, but boy, was that a fluke play.
It was a pitch off the plate that just got through the shift. Tip your cap, yes. Great execution, certainly. Still, a fluke play.
That doesn’t remotely compare to the ninth. Francisco Lindor hit a lead-off single. He then should’ve had second stolen. That was until Pete Alonso swung at the first pitch.
Lindor had to hold up. It could’ve been caught. Getting doubled off effectively ends the game. His view is blocked, and he erred on the side of caution.
It should’ve been Lindor at second with Alonso at the plate. It could’ve been first and third with no outs. Instead, it was runner at first with one out. It was the slower Alonso too.
Again, fluke play. Arguably, this was born of poor execution with Alonso being way too aggressive.
Fluke or not, these two plays defined a maddening loss. It was also what the Braves needed to finally beat the Mets in a series this year.
Again, it took two pitcher injuries and two fluke plays. That’s what it takes for the Braves to take down the Mets.
The Braves won. Good for them. It still doesn’t change the fact the Mets remain the much better team who only lost due to a series or events near impossible to repeat.
Mets are still vastly superior and will easily win the NL East.
In back-to-back games, the New York Mets saw Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker to injury. We would also see the Mets lose both of those games.
With Carrasco, it was very bad news. He has an oblique strain which takes about a month to heal. Depending on how he heals, his season may be in jeopardy.
With respect to Walker, it’s the second time in three starts he’s had an issue. This time, it was back spasms. At this point, there’s no telling when he can return.
Losing both pitchers hurts as both have been very good for the Mets this year. They’ve been the mainstays and stabilizing forces for a rotation which has dealt with more than their fair share of injuries.
That is exactly how we know the Mets rotation will be fine in their absence.
In all due respect to Carrasco and Walker, they’re not Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer. We didn’t see deGrom until August, and Scherzer was down for all of June and part of May.
Carrasco and Walker stepping up were part of the reason. That was just part of it as the Mets needed pitchers to step up in the vacated rotation spots.
First and foremost, David Peterson has been in-and-out of the rotation due to a myriad of pitcher injuries. In his 14 starts, he’s 5-2 with a 3.17 ERA, 1.225 WHIP, and a 10.5 K/9 while averaging five innings per start.
In sum, Peterson has shown himself to be a more than capable fifth starter with real upside. While he’s a step back from Carrasco and Walker, he’s a credible Major League starter who has flashes of brilliance.
Trevor Williams has served just about every role for the Mets. That includes emergency starter, spot starter, and fifth starter.
Wiliiams has been much better in the bullpen. As a starter, he’s pitched at least five innings just three times in eight starts. He has a 4.67 ERA as a starter with a drastically reduced strikeout rate.
That said, his last start was his best. On July 7, he shutout the Miami Marlins over seven innings while limiting them to just two hits. Ultimately, he has the ability to have a good to great start.
There’s also the Tylor Megill factor. The Mets had announced he was moving to the bullpen, but that was before these most recent injuries.
Overall, the Mets have credible starters to jump into Carrasco’s and Walker’s spots. We know the Mets have pitchers who can pitch well. In the end, that’s why there’s no reason to panic.
Realistically speaking, Mychal Givens shouldn’t be a real issue for the New York Mets or any team seeking to make a deep postseason run. After all, Givens wasn’t the Chicago Cubs closer, and he shared primary set-up duties.
Keep in mind, the Cubs are a very bad team. Even with the expanded postseason, they sold at the deadline. That made Givens available.
For a team looking to make a postseason run, Givens is nice depth. A nice dependable battle tested arm at the end of the bullpen. He’s the guy who grabs some earlier innings and can steal some late inning set-up spots with a slightly larger lead or when your main guys are tired.
If Givens falters, you should be able to shrug it off. To date, Givens has faltered. In seven appearances with the Mets, he’s 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA, and a 2.167 WHIP. He’s almost allowed as many runs with the Mets (9) as he had in 40 appearances with the Cubs (12).
Again, a team like the Mets should be in a spot to shrug this off and adjust accordingly. However, Givens was the Mets ONLY trading deadline bullpen acquisition. As such, the Mets actually need him to be more than he is.
Except, he hasn’t been. That’s made all the worse by the Mets uncertainty in their bridge to Edwin Díaz.
Adam Ottavino has been great but needs rest. Seth Lugo has been inching back to peak Lugo form, but he’s still uneven. Trevor May is still working his way back to game shape.
Ideally, that group would’ve made Givens a luxury and not a necessity. The Mets may still get there, but they’re not quite there yet.
That’s also before the Mets face any injuries. On that note, the Mets still don’t know if they’re getting anything at all from Drew Smith or Tylor Megill the rest of the season.
Givens was a boom or bust gamble going bust. There’s still time for him and for the rest of the bullpen. The thing is after the trade deadline you’d think the Mets would’ve been in a far better spot than this.
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies had their crack at the New York Mets. Coming to Queens, the Braves and Phillies could not have been hotter, and their pitching rotations were perfectly aligned.
The Braves and Phillies purportedly did better at the trade deadline. In fact, they grabbed a couple of the relievers the Mets were targeting.
The Mets were primed to be knocked down a peg. The Braves could repeat the horrors of last year and the late 90s. The Phillies wouldn’t have to wait until September like they did in 2007 – 2008.
The end result?
The Mets took six of eight games. If not for the bizarre decision making of Joey Cora, it might’ve been 8/8.
Even with Cora, the Mets expanded their division lead from 3.5 games to 5.5. They’re 39-15 against their division foes. That’s the most intra-division wins in the National League.
As an aside, the Mets are not a paper tiger demolishing NL East foes only. Outside the division, they’re 36-25 (.574). That’s a 93 win pace.
They’re also 37-26 (,587) against teams over .500. That’s a 95 win pace. Put another way, the Mets are doing more than beating up on their division. They’re just beating everyone.
We know how they’re doing it. It’s a rotation featuring Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Edwin Díaz is the best closer in the game. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are MVP candidates.
This is all just a long winded way of saying they’re better than almost everyone. As composed right now, they could be the best team in all of baseball. Certainly, with the starting pitching and Díaz, they should be considered World Series favorites.
For now, they are the best team in the NL East. and they took care of the Braves and Phillies to establish that (again). All that’s left for the Mets now is to ensure they get that pitching healthy and set-up for October.