Musings
In his Major League career, Terrance Gore has 43 stolen bases against only 15 hits. Roughly speaking, Gore is three times more as likely to steal a base than it is for him to get a hit.
With getting on base being a condition precedent to a team being able to steal a base, those numbers are shocking. However, when it comes to Gore, it really isn’t. His whole raison d’être is pinch running and stealing bases. It is why the 31 year old has appeared in parts of eight seasons only playing in 107 games.
We all know Gore exists to join the roster late in the season with expanded rosters. He’s there to pinch run in a key spot and steal a base. Teams want to deploy him to do that in the postseason as well. The thing is they just don’t want him at the plate and really aren’t looking for him to play defense.
For the Mets, we saw him pinch run late in games twice against the Pittsburgh Pirates. On both occasions, he not only stole second, but with the catcher so frantic to unleash the throw, he was able to take third on the errant throw. That is game changing. From a pure entertainment perspective, it was exciting to have Gore on the basepaths.
That Terrance Gore speed pic.twitter.com/7NS2BiFdI3
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 17, 2022
This is actually the type of baseball Major League Baseball is seeking to manufacture. In 2023, base sizes are going to expand, and pitchers are going to be limited to the number of pick-off attempts they can make per batter. The hope for baseball is the expansion of stolen base attempts. Of course, none of that is needed when you have a player of Gore’s capability.
Seeing that is the case, why wouldn’t baseball look to implement a Designated Runner like they have a Designated Hitter?
Does it sound dumb and gimmicky? Sure, but that’s the entirety of the existence of the DH. The excuse is pitchers can’t actually hit, so why make them? Wouldn’t it just be better to have a guy in the lineup who is solely there to hit? Supposedly, that creates a more exciting or entertaining brand of baseball.
Turning that logic on its head, who wants to see a player like Daniel Vogelbach run the bases? According to Baseball Savant, he is the 12th slowest player in the majors. His running the bases adds nothing of excitement to the game. He’s not taking that extra base or forcing a good throw from the outfield. He’s not stealing a base or even attempting one.
But Gore? Well, Gore is a human green light. He spends all of his time studying pitchers and their moves. His entire existence is predicated on stealing bases. He knows it. The other teams know it. However, there is only a small two month widow where his genius is allowed in the game.
It is so bizarre Major League Baseball will institute gimmick rule after gimmick rule after gimmick rule to try to generate offense and excitement. Let’s add a DH. Also, the bases need to be bigger and closer together. Fielders can only stand here, and pitchers can only look the runner back or throw over so many times. However, if you dare insinuate the need for a designated runner, they’ll look at you like you’re crazy.
In the end, the question is if you can have Vogelbach at the plate because you don’t want to see pitchers hit, then why can’t you have someone run for him when no one wants to see him run?
It doesn’t have to be today. It doesn’t have to be this week. It’s certainly not a punishment. However, sooner or later the Mets should move Taijuan Walker to the bullpen.
Simply put, after Carlos Carrasco’s latest gem, he needs to be the fourth starter in the postseason. This is far more Carrasco winning a job than it is Walker losing it.
Over his last 11 starts, Carrasco has allowed two runs or fewer. Over this stretch, he’s 7-2 with a 2.12 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, and a 9.4 K/9. He’s pitching great, and the Mets need their best pitchers in the postseason.
Walker has again struggled in the second half, but he was great in his last start. We have seen him rise to the occasion and needs to be part of the equation, so the Mets should start looking to put him in the best place to succeed.
To a lesser degree, the Mets are doing this with David Peterson. He’s being removed from the rotation and being put in the bullpen. It’s no secret that it’s to see if he can be a left-handed reliever in the postseason.
Of course, Peterson is in a significantly different spot than Walker. First and foremost, Peterson was filling in for Max Scherzer, and Scherzer is set to come off the IL on Monday.
However, it is illustrative. When the time is right, start putting players in the roles they will be come postseason. Peterson will be a reliever, and so will Walker.
Obviously, winning the division comes first, and clearly Walker is one of the Mets five best starters. He will likely prove that again in his start against the Pittsburgh Pirates. From there, he’s on turn to face:
- 9/21 at Milwaukee Brewers
- 9/28 vs. Miami Marlins
- 10/4 vs. Washington Nationals
Certainly, the Mets want him making that Brewers start. After that, it may be best to remove him from the rotation.
By having Trevor Williams take his spot in the rotation, that would free up Walker to pitch out of the bullpen in that pivotal series in Atlanta.
In terms of attempting to win the division, having Walker at the ready could prove huge. If a starter is knocked out, he can jump in and eat innings or keep the team afloat. He’s also capable of getting the big strikeout or generating a ground ball for a double play.
Looking at the whole picture, this should be Walker’s penultimate start of the season. After Milwaukee, moving Walker to the bullpen aides in winning the division and preparing for the postseason.
We live in a world where many, many things can be simultaneously true. With his play on the field in 2022, the New York Mets were justified sending Dominic Smith down to Triple-A.
By keeping him in Triple-A, Mets have made it abundantly clear Smith is not part of the future of the franchise. That includes the makings of the postseason roster.
We can all dicker over whether that’s the prudent move for this team. That’s besides the point. What is clear now is the Mets actually need Smith in the majors right now, and they need him at first.
The reason why is Pete Alonso.
All season long, Alonso has given absolutely everything he has to the Mets. He’s very clearly one of the reasons why this team is still in first place. Saying he’s the reason Smith needs to be recalled is no slight to him.
The truth is Alonso is just exhausted. As a result, he’s slumping, and he’s showing his frustrations out on the field.
Historically, Alonso finishes the season strong. So far this September, he’s batting .249/.314/.457. This will mark the third straight month he’s had a SLG under .500 and and OPS of .800 or lower.
Alonso’s last day off was the All-Star Break. Keep in mind, he participated in the Home Run Derby and game. He also had to fly back-and-forth from Los Angeles.
His last day off was June 8. He’s played in both ends of the doubleheader in all eight of the Mets doubleheaders this season. He last DH’d on September 3. He’s only done it four times in the second half.
At this point, the Mets are getting diminishing returns from Alonso. Yes, it’s better than the alternatives, but it’s still not Alonso being Alons, and this Mets team needs that to win games.
The problem is Daniel Vogelbach is slumping and really can’t play in the field. Right now, Darin Ruf is by far the Mets worst hitter and since joining the Mets he’s among the very worst in the game.
Making matters all the more complicated, with Starling Marte’s injury, Ruf needs to play right field against left-handed pitching. There’s no way the Mets can or should trust Mark Vientos at first.
When you break it down, as this roster is currently constructed. Alonso is the only option to play first base. That’s all well and good up until the point we started to see Alonso slump and increasingly start showing his frustrations.
Alonso needs a mini-break. The Mets need to get him out of the field a bit to rest and clear his head. Looking at the organization, Smith seems to be the only player capable of playing a game or two there defensively.
Let Smith spell Alonso for a game or two. In the event of blow outs, let Smith come in late in games. Just get someone out there who can give Alonso a breather and get some rest.
The Mets have been failing Alonso. They need him to be great, and they’re running him into the ground. It’s time to get Smith up here to find an inning or two or game here and there to get Alonso the rest he needs.
It’s time to recall Dominic Smith.
When teams make roster moves, whether intended or not, there are clear messages delivered. The New York Mets delivered one to Darin Ruf.
With Luis Guillorme activated, the expectation was Deven Marrero was going to be designated for assignment. In fact, that is what happened.
That also means the Mets opted to keep Mark Vientos in the majors.
Vientos is a direct threat to Ruf’s playing time, and he could be a threat to Ruf’s spot on the postseason roster. Essentially, the Mets are going to give Vientos plate appearances to show he’s ready right now to be the right-handed DH option.
That’s what Ruf was supposed to be. However, he’s been failing in that role. So far with the Mets, he has a 9 OPS+.
NINE.
That’s unplayable. That goes double for a DH. The job is literally only hitting, and Ruf hasn’t been able to do that.
Fortunately for Ruf, he’s still going to get an opportunity to prove himself. With Starling Marte on the IL, he can play right field against left-handed pitching.
On Sunday, both Ruf and Vientos were in the starting lineup against Miami Marlins left-handed starter Jesus Luzardo. While the Mets offense exploded that day, neither Vientos nor Ruf impressed.
Ruf was 0-for-4 with two strikeouts. He was eventually lifted for Tyler Naquin. Vientos was the DH for the whole game. He was 0-for-5 with two strikeouts.
For both players, this was a missed chance; all the more so for Vientos.
There are not going to be many chances to impress as the short side platoon option. For Vientos, he has to clearly do it. He has to leave zero doubt he is the better option at the moment.
Ruf is the veteran, and the Mets gave up a ton to get him. Vientos is battling against track record and front office politics.
However, the opportunity remains. It remains because Vientos remains on the roster. The Mets made sure of that.
The history of the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves is typically a one-sided affair. Worse yet, it’s one which features Mets collapses and heart ache.
There’s Mel Rojas. Kenny Rogers the next year. Brian Jordan. Everything Chipper Jones. Most recently Freddie Freeman.
Most of the horrors were fueled by Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz. Glavine came to the Mets, and the balance of power in the NL East seemed to eventually shift to the Mets. Of course, Glavine melted down in Game 162, and nothing would be the same for that Mets team.
Things re-kindled last year. The Mets were in first place for 103 days. Not only did they eventually cede first place to the eventual World Series champion Braves, but they would also have the indignity of finishing under .500.
Things looked dire again this year. The Mets built a 10.5 game lead. It was 6.5 games after the Mets took four of five in an early August series. The Braves should’ve been left for dead, but they fought back.
It was one thing for the Braves to tie the division. It was another for them to take a half-game lead. The Mets responded by trouncing the Miami Marlins.
They have also gotten some help from the Seattle Mariners. Remember, for all the Braves exploits, they’re only 28-33 against teams with a winning record.
After splitting the first two games of the series, the Braves faced a 6-1 deficit in the eighth before Michael Harris II homered. He’d do it again in an improbable five run ninth giving the Braves a 7-6 lead. The second homer was off former Mets reliever Paul Sewald.
The Mets had already retaken the NL East lead, but this Mariners series could’ve given the Mets some breathing room. The Mets needed a re-payment for the favor of the Robinson Canó trade.
Well, they got it. First, it was a one out game tying homer from Julio Rodriguez off Kenley Jansen. Then, with two outs Eugenio Suarez came up to the plate:
It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. Not from the Mets perspective.
Put the 1969 NLCS aside. That was another time in another era of baseball.
The Wild Card and Inter-league play came and so did the Braves tormenting the Mets. Yes, the Mets won two pennants and two division titles. The made the postseason five times.
However, when it came down to just these two teams, the Braves were always on top. The Mets never won a division where the Braves finished second. When they met in the postseason, the Braves came out on top.
That’s what makes the Suarez homer a game changer. In the history of Mets-Braves, the Braves win that game, stay a half game back (tied in the loss column), and they eventually overtake the Mets.
Suarez homered. That is changing the narrative. It moved the Mets up 1.5 games. It’s a little breathing room.
If the Mets do indeed win the division this was one of a series of pivotal moments. It may be THE moment. If so, the Mets owe the Mariners and Suarez a debt of gratitude.
The defining moment of Buck Showalter’s managerial career was leaving Zack Britton in the bullpen during the winner-take-all 2017 American League Wild Card Game. That’s who Showalter always had been, and apparently, always will be.
Edwin Díaz had last pitched on September 1. Why? Because that’s the last time there was a save opportunity.
Technically, Diaz earned the hold as he was used in the eighth to pitch against the heart of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. After that, Showalter found no need to use Díaz.
Keep in mind, the Mets have played some close games. Well, they were close until the bullpen imploded. The end result is the Mets current 2-4 stretch seeing their NL East lead completely evaporate.
Showalter found reason to use Adam Ottavino three times over four days helping lead to a loss. He used Tommy Hunter three times over four days and four out of seven. That helped lead to two losses.
Joely Rodriguez managed to pitch three times since we last saw Diaz. He let up a big homer against the Marlins. We even saw Bryce Montes de Oca, who Showalter thought wise to try to push to two innings.
Since we last saw Díaz pitch, Showalter’s bullpen usage has been baffling. He found no time to use Diaz and instead did this:
- Tommy Hunter – 3 G, 4.2 IP, 2 ER
- Joely Rodriguez – 3 G, 2.1 IP, 2 ER
- Bryce Montes de Oca, 2 G, 2.1 IP, 3 ER
- Adam Ottavino, 2 G, 2,0 IP, ER
- Seth Lugo, 2 G, 3.0 IP, 0 ER
- Mychal Givens, 2 G, 2.2 IP, 0 ER
- Adonis Medina, G, 0.1 IP, 4 ER
- Alex Claudio, G, 1.0 IP, 0 ER
Finally, in the loss to the Miami Marlins, Showalter finally used Diaz. At that point, it was too little too late.
The bullpen ERA was 5.89 between Diaz appearances. The Mets record was 2-4 over this stretch. The Mets lead has evaporated.
This is partially because that’s how Showalter led this team. Certainly, his bullpen management is a factor. Whatever you want to point to, and there’s plenty, it’s come with Showalter in charge.
This should serve as a reminder Showalter has been very poor in the postseason and has never won anything. Unless he finally learns a lesson about bullpen management and adapts, he may still hold this Mets team back from winning this year.
Yes, the Atlanta Braves have been on an insane tear. Since June 1, they’re 63-24. That’s a 117 win pace.
Over that time, the New York Mets lead has gone from 10.5 to 0.5. The two teams are tied in the loss column. That’s even with the Mets taking nine of the 16 games between the two teams.
Over that same stretch, the Mets are 53-34. That’s a 99 win pace for a team who should win over 100 games this season.
Many want to make the point if the Braves win the division, you have to tip your cap. It’s the World Series champions playing at a bear historic pace.
This is a clear distortion of what has happened. Moreover, it’s a complete distortion of what will happen if the Braves win the division.
Certainly, the Braves pace has been absurd. Despite all that, the Mets entered the month of September with a three game lead. It’s didn’t take a week for the Mets to give it all back.
No, it wasn’t the Los Angeles Dodgers who helped knock down the Mets. That would’ve been understandable. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball.
The Mets not only came out of that series with the three game lead, but they also beat the Dodgers two out of three times. What did the Mets in was the Washington Nationals.
The Nationals will lose 100+ games, and they took two out of three from the Mets. That includes a game where Patrick Corbin of all pitchers shut the Mets down.
The Mets followed these two inexplicable losses by getting blown out by the Pittsburgh Pirates to start the series. The Mets lost their lead because they were manhandled by the Nationals and Pirates.
That is the correct way to phrase it. The Mets blew it. They had a three game lead and gave it back because they were non-competitive against the Nationals and Pirates.
Looking deeper, their schedule is still a joke. Aside from a three game set in Atlanta, the only series they have against a team with a winning record is in Milwaukee. The Brewers are 14-20 since trading Josh Hader.
If the Mets lose the division it’s because they can’t beat the Miami Marlins, Chicago Cubs, Pittsburgh Pirates, a reeling Brewers team, Oakland Athletics, and Washington Nationals the way they should.
Also, the Mets have a three game set in Atlanta.
Looking at the complete picture, this isn’t about the Braves run. If the Mets took care of business last week, the two teams wouldn’t be tied in the loss column.
If the Mets don’t win the division, it’s because they didn’t beat up ok their ridiculously easy September opponents. That’s solely on the Mets, and that’s why, if they don’t win the division, it’s completely on them.
After three straight embarrassing and inexplicable losses, the New York Mets seem back on track. They swept the doubleheader and destroyed the Pittsburgh Pirates in the process.
That was not the only good news. In fact, the Mets got plenty of good news.
Starling Marte has a non-displaced fracture and is day-to-day. Tylor Megill is dominating out of the bullpen in his rehab assignment. Drew Smith is set to start his own.
Then, there’s the Max Scherzer news. In many ways, the reaction is based on your perspective:
The irony of Scherzer saying it’s not week-to-week is he’s on the 15 day IL. That’s literally two weeks and a day. By nature, that’s weeks.
Admittedly, that’s semantics. What truly matters is Svherzer is good to go after those two weeks. As with Carlos Carrasco, he’s not really going to be given a shot to make a rehab start.
Backdating it to September 4, Scherzer can return September 19. The Mets would have 14 games remaining. With a five man rotation and wanting to save billets for the postseason, that’ll mean Scherzer had two starts remaining.
That’s not a lot of time, so Scherzer will have to make do. He needs to use those starts do get fully up to speed because the Mets World Seriew hope now hinge on that right arm.
Chris Bassitt had stepped up in the second half. Conversely, Walker and Carrasco have been nicked up and have struggled. The Mets can’t go with them both in the postseason.
The Mets need Scherzer being the Curt Schilling to deGtom’s Randy Johnson. That’s an untouchable top two, and with Bassitt, it might just be unbeatable. However, that hinges now on Scherzer.
The offense has come and gone. That may happen in the postseason (as it usually does. That puts the onus on the starters.
The starters are up to the task, but only if they’re healthy and ready to go. Right now, they’re not. We need to see in two weeks.
If Scherzer is Scherzer, this Mets team could be the World Series favorites. If not, it may be one-and-done. We will find out soon.
The New York Mets losing two out of three to the Washington Nationals is unacceptable at any point of the season. That goes double in September.
Even more troubling was Max Scherzer leaving a game seemingly aggravating an injury. Trevor May also hit the IL worsening an already questionable bullpen.
The Mets stopped hitting, which is all the more problematic when they faced Patrick Corbin and Erick Fedde. Just like that, the Atlanta Braves, who seemingly never lose, shaved two games off the Mets division lead.
If we’re being honest, this does feel a bit like 2007. The Mets pitching was getting nicked up late in the season, the bullpen was incomplete, and the Mets completely fell apart even while facing far inferior competition.
Of course, this is a feeling born out of disastrous seasons of yore. That said, this is a new era with a different team. Mostly, this team is a near lock to make the postseason.
Right now, this is about winning the division. With that comes home field until the NLCS and whatever perks come in Manfred’s sensationalist and failing ways to drive interest to the sport and its postseason.
The good news is the Mets absolutely control their fate. That’s not only because the Mets still have a lead in the division, but it’s also because of their schedule to finish the season:
- 3 at Pittsburgh Pirates
- 3 at Miami Marlins
- 4 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- 3 at Milwaukee Brewers
- 3 at Oakland Athletics
- 2 vs. Miami Marlins
- 3 at Atlanta Braves
- 3 vs. Washington Nationals
With the Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, and Nationals, that’s 18 games out of the Mets remaining 24 games against teams on pace to lose 94+ games. The Pirates, Athletics, and Nationals are on pace to lose over 100 games.
That leaves six games against teams with a winning record.
Since the trade deadline, when the first place Brewers traded Josh Hader, that team has gone 13-17. As a result, they’ve dropped out of first, and they’re 2.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.
As for the Braves, well, they’re defending World Series champs. However, despite taking the last series from the Mets, the Mets lead the season series 9-7. It should also be noted the Braves are 27-30 against teams with a winning record.
When you break it all down, the Mets finishing schedule could not be more favorable. In the end, all they have to do is take care of business. If they do that, they’ll win the division and be on a trajectory towards winning the World Series.