Musings
Mets fans always have been and always will be captivated by Jose Reyes. During his time in Flushing, he meant so much to Mets fans. He was an exciting leadoff hitter whose speed on the bases was matched only by the speed of his throws to firstbase. The joy and excitement he showed on the field was only surpassed by they joy and enthusiasm exhibited by the fans who watched him on the field. When he finally became a free agent, he wanted to stay, and Mets fans wanted him to stay. Now, with his future uncertain with his suspension and the rise of Trevor Story, there are those who may want him to return.
Admittedly, there was a time I would have gladly joined that chorus. Not now.
Let’s start with the practicalities. The Mets have a shortstop, and his name is Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera is a career .267/.329/.411 hitter with a 104 OPS+. With his recent slump, Cabrera is hitting .267/.332/.400 with a 100 OPS+. Over the last two years, he averaged a -6,3 UZR and a -7.5 DRS. The Mets owe him $8.25 million this year and the next. After next year, the Mets can decide to keep Cabrera for the 2018 season at $8.5 million, transition to Gavin Cecchini or Amed Rosario, or move in a completely different direction.
For his part, Reyes has put up similar production to Cabrera. Reyes is a career .290/.339/.431 hitter with a 105 OPS+. Because he accepted a suspension for an alleged act of domestic violence, Reyes has not played this year. When he played last year, Reyes hit .274/.310/.378 with an 82 OPS+. He did that while playing in two hitters ballparks in the Rogers Centre and Coors Field. Over the past two years, he has averaged a -6.6 UZR and a -12 DRS in the field. For that, the Rockies are paying Reyes the prorated portion of $22 million this year and the next. Like Cabrera, Reyes has an option for 2018. Unlike Cabrera, if that option is not exercised, Reyes is a $4 million buyout.
In terms of his production on the field, Reyes is not an upgrade over Cabrera. Worse yet, he’s a much more expensive option. Even if you were to presume the Rockies would eat a portion of Reyes’ salary, there is almost no amount that would make a deal between the two clubs make sense.
For the time being, the Mets needs are at first and third base. Reyes does not address either of those needs unless you want to shuffle a bunch of players out of position. The first option would be to move Reyes to second base like he once did in the first year of the Kaz Matsui experiment. That would force Neil Walker to third base. In that situation, you are asking Reyes to return to a position he last played in 2004 for 43 games, and you are asking Walker to play a position he last played in 2010 and has played 15 total games in his career. It’s asking for trouble. The other option is to put Reyes at shortstop and move Cabrera to third base. Cabrera has only played 1.1 innings at third base in 2004. It’s not much better. Overall, there is no fit for Reyes on the team.
Assuming there was room for Reyes, and assuming the Rockies were to release him, it is still a bad idea.
The addition of Reyes would be a distraction. It’s a distraction because of who he is and what he once meant to Mets fans. If Cabrera, Walker, or another infield falters, there will be a clamoring for him to replace that regular in the lineup. There’s also the matter of his domestic violence action. There have been studies that show 62% of previously arrested domestic violence perpetrators are re-arrested withing two years of the initial domestic violence act. Now, Reyes is purportedly taking the issue seriously. As part of his suspension, he is seeking counseling. We all hope for both him and his wife that the counseling will help and that there will be no more violence in that household.
With that said, this is baseball. We use statistics to make judgments on players. We can use Reyes’ statistics to show he is no longer the player he was with the Mets. We can use the statistics to show he would not be an upgrade on the Mets roster. Unfortunately, we can also use the statistics to show that the drama that surrounds Reyes may not be over. What is and should be over is Reyes’ great Mets career.
We should all wish Reyes and his family the best no matter where he winds up. Let’s just hope that place isn’t Flushing.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
Let’s start with the obvious. In each and every at bat, the optimal result is the home run. One through nine, you want each and every one of your batters to hit a home run each and every time at the plate. That’s not always going to happen. As a result, you are going to have to build runs through basehits, walks, and effective at bats with runners in scoring position. The best offensive teams are able to score runs and win games even when they are not hitting home runs. Accordingly, the Mets are not a good offensive team as they are overly reliant upon hitting home runs.
No matter how you slice or dice it, the Mets offense is entirely dependent on hitting a home run. Here is the breakdown:
| HR/Game | Games | Record | Runs/Game |
| 0 | 20 | 5-15 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 19 | 11-8 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 12 | 8-4 | 4.7 |
| 3+ | 11 | 10-1 | 6.3 |
In essence, if the Mets don’t hit any home runs, they are not scoring runs, and they are not winning games. Why?
First and foremost, the Mets just don’t get on base that frequently enough to score runs without hitting homeruns. The Mets team batting average is .233 which ranks 27th in the majors. The team OBP is .309 which ranks 23rd in the majors. In order to score runs by something other than the homerun, you need to get people on base. In that respect, the Mets are one of the worst in the game right now.
The Mets next problem is that even when there are runners on base, they do nothing with the baserunners. The Mets are the worst team in baseball with a .226 batting average with runners on base. Their .303 OBP with runners on base is 28th. When you look at stats like this, the answer most people advocate is the Mets should start playing some good old fashioned small ball. The problem with that is the Mets are really bad at playing small ball.
The Mets rank 24th in the majors in productive outs. A productive out is an out that moves over a baserunner with no outs, when a pitcher lays down a successful sacrifice bunt with one out, or when an out scores a runner. The Mets have had 613 such opportunities this season, and they have been successful only 29.4% of the time. A large part of that is, as a team, the Mets have struck out 563 times this year which is the fifth most in the majors. With the Mets being ineffective in getting people on base, they cannot afford to be this ineffective in moving runners over when they make those outs.
When baserunners take matters into their own hands, the results are just as poor. This Mets team has not been blessed with much team speed, and as a result, the Mets do not try to steal many bases. In fact, the Mets rank second to last in stolen base attempts (22) and stolen bases (13). When the Mets do attempt stolen bases, they are successful only 59.09% of the time. Now, it has been espoused in order for stealing bases to be an effective tactic, the baserunner needs to be safe 75% of the time. Therefore, in the rare occasions the baserunners try to take matters into their own hands, they are hurting the team with a poor percentage play.
The Mets not only have trouble getting runner on base and into scoring position, but they also have problems getting those runners home. The Mets rank DEAD LAST in the majors with a .214 batting average with runners in scoring position. The Mets 129 RBI with runners in scoring position ranks is tied for last place with the Philadelphia Phillies. It’s even worse with two outs. With runners in scoring position with two outs, the Mets are again DEAD LAST in team batting average (.163) and RBI (43). The Mets are last in the majors with nine sacrifice flys. In fact, when the Mets have a runner on third with less than two outs, the baserunner only scores 42% of the time. Again, that’s last in the majors. Overall, when the Mets can a baserunner, that baserunner only scores a league worst 23% of the time. The end result is the Mets having one of the worst offenses in all of baseball.
Simply put, the Mets are not scoring runs unless they hit a homerun. When they don’t hit homeruns, they don’t win many games. There have been many discussions about whether the Mets hit too many homeruns. As it turns out, the answer is they don’t hit enough of them. With that said, it’s time for Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Neil Walker to get to work hitting homeruns because if they don’t, the Mets aren’t going to score any runs.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
On June 14, 1777, the Second Continental Congress adopted the Stars and Stripes as the official flag of the United States of America. It’s up to you to decide whether or not it was created by Betsy Ross at George Washington‘s behest. There’s no harm in perpetuating the fantasy. As baseball fans at least pretend that baseball was invented by Union General Abner Doubleday in the quaint little village of Cooperstown, New York. It’s why the Baseball Hall of Fame is located there.
As Americans and Mets fans, we all carry the fantasy that this October we will once again see the American Flag stretched across the outfield in Citi Field. We will all be getting residential flagpole installation services to fit our front yards with as many flagpoles as we can physically fit on the grass, and raising the star-spangled banner high into the sky for all to look upon in pride. Flag Day is a proud moment in our history, and I for one can’t wait for it.
In actuality, it’s not really a fantasy. The Mets faced the same issues last year with the injuries and the poor offense. On this date last year, the Mets were 34-30. This year, they are 34-28. Lost in the David Wright and Lucas Duda injuries as well as the struggles from Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto is the fact that this Mets team is simply better than the one the Mets fielded last year. Even in the worst of times, the Mets now have Yoenis Cespedes in the middloe of the lineup instead of John Mayberry and Eric Campbell.
So yes, on this Flag Day, we can still dream of the days in which the American flag once again adorns the Citi Field outfield. We can hope for Wright and Granderson to hit homeruns while Noah Syndergaard intimidates batters from 60′ 6″ away. We can also await the Mets raising a World Series flag in centerfield.
After going to the playoffs in Major League, every expected the Indians to repeat and possibly win the World Series. The same goes for this year’s Mets team. Last year, the Mets dealt with injuries, which hampered their ability to score enough runs to support a young pitching staff. The Major League II Indians had the same problems:
The parallels don’t just end with the repeated problems. They go much further.
The once cheap Indians spent money in the offseason to help improve the club. For the Indians, it was Parkman. For the Mets, it was bringing back Yoenis Cespedes.
Both Terry Collins and Lou Brown had to spend time in the hospital. It makes you question which British show Collins was watching in a Milwaukee hospital.
Matt Harvey is having Wild Thing Rick Vaughn type of struggles during the season.
Both Willie Mays Hayes and Michael Conforto went from bursting on the scene to having sophomore slumps.
Instead of going out and making a huge transaction to fix the teams’ need, they went outside the majors to help the team. The Mets acquired James Loney for cash considerations, and the Indians acquired Tanaka.
Speaking of Tanaka, he was at Citi Field visiting the Mets right before David Wright went on the DL:
photo Andrew Beaton‘s Twitter Account.
So far, he hasn’t helped these Mets find their marbles. Perhaps, it’s because Juan Uribe took them to Cleveland of all places.
There are only two more steps remaining for the Mets to truly become the Major League II Indians:
- They need to bring back Michael Cuddyer the way the Indians brought back Dorn; and
- The Mets need to win one more series than they did the prior year.
Hopefully, this is the point in the season when we can cue the Mets going on an insane winning streak allowing them to take control of the NL East and get to the World Series.
The Mets have gone through Eric Campbell, Ty Kelly, and Matt Reynolds as bench players. Unfortunately, none of them performed up to expectations. Finally, the Mets felt compelled to trade a good prospect like Akeel Morris for Kelly Johnson. It was a deal made after the Mets had already gone through almost every single last option they had in the minors who could play multiple positions.
Actually, they didn’t. The Mets never gave T.J. Rivera a shot.
Rivera has done all you could ask from a player. He has learned multiple positions. He’s capable of playing every position in the infield even if he’s not truly adept at any single position. After being passed over for a promotion to the majors by Kelly, Rivera dedicated himself to learning the outfield to make himself even more attractive to be a major league call-up. He has hit .361/.401/.526 so far in AAA this year. He as the Pacific Coast League’s Player of the Month for the month of May. Again, Rivera has done everything to merit a call-up. It just isn’t happening.
Was Rivera the solution to the Mets bench problems? Probably not. He was still a 27 year old undrafted minor league player. Yet, he still possessed skills that could of translated to the major leagues. He had the potential to be a contact hitter with doubles power. He could have filled in all across the diamond. There are a lot of things Rivera was capable of doing if only he got the chance. He won’t for reasons that are still unclear, and frankly, are unfair.
So yes, the Mets minor league system is worse for having lost a real prospect in Morris. It’s frustrating that he was traded away for a player that could have been re-signed by the Mets in the offseason. However, that frustration doesn’t match the frustration Rivera must be feeling now knowing that the Mets may never give him his chance despite him having earned an opportunity.
Jimmy Rollins has been a career .264/.324/.418 hitter. In the prime of his career, he was a .286/.342/.468 hitter. In 2007, he predicted the Phillies would win the NL East, and he backed it up by being the MVP that year. He was a clubhouse leader on a Phillies team that went to the postseason five straight years and won the 2008 World Series. He’s won four Gold Gloves at shortstop. Rollins has been a very good major league player. The problem is Rollins isn’t that player anymore.
Last year, Rollins hit .224/.285/.358 in 144 games with the Dodgers. There’s no sugar coating it. Rollins wasn’t good last year. It’s why the Dodgers called up Corey Seager at the end of the year, and why Rollins and Seager split time at shortstop during the NLDS. Despite his struggles, Rollins was able to latch on with the Chicago White Sox this year. In 41 games, Rollins hit .221/.295/.329. It is no wonder why for the second straight year Rollins has been pushed aside for a shortstop prospect. This year it was Tim Anderson, and this year it came much quicker. Rollins has been designated for assignment. He’s now 37 years old, and he is facing the very real prospect that his career might be over.
It might be time for the Mets to throw Rollins a lifeline.
Even with how poor Rollins is playing, he’s still a better player than what they have. With the Kelly Johnson addition, the Mets have one spot left on the bench that is going to Matt Reynolds. Even in a two year spiral, Rollins is playing better than Reynolds. Additionally, Rollins has been a proven leader on a World Series winning team. As we saw last year with Juan Uribe, you cannot add enough veteran bench pieces to a team that has World Series aspirations.
Now, one thing that is obvious is Mets fans don’t like Rollins. They don’t like anyone from those Phillies teams especially Chase Utley. With that said, Mets fans will get over it if Rollins is a positive contributor. The Mets fans had no issue with Orel Hershiser in 1999, and they had no issue with Orlando Hernandez a/k/a El Duque in 2006. There were no issues with Kelly Johnson either last year or this year. Ultimately, all Mets fans want is to win. They will cheer whoever helps them win. That includes Jimmy Rollins.
Overall, the Mets should look into adding Jimmy Rollins into the mix.
The Mets have three big holes due to three players going down with significant injuries. Lucas Duda has a stress fracture in his back. David Wright has a herniated disc in his neck in addition to his spinal stenosis. Travis d’Arnaud has a torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder.
With this in mind, the Mets have to answer a few questions as the trade deadline approaches:
- Are any of the three players likely to return?
- Do the Mets have viable internal options to replace that player?
- What is out there on the trade market?
Working backwards, we see the biggest name on the trade market is going to be Jonathan Lucroy.
Lucroy is having a terrific year this season hitting .304/.361/.515 with nine homeruns and 28 RBI. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Lucroy is playing this well as he is better in even numbered years than odd numbered years since he became a full time starter in 2011. In 2012, his OPS+ was 132; in 2014, it was 131, and this year it is 132. In short, we can reasonably expect Lucroy to keep this up.
Lucroy’s just as successful behind the plate. He is a good pitch framer. He’s gunned down 42.9% of would be basestealers. Simply put, Lucroy is as much of a complete catcher as there is in the game. He’s also a massive upgrade over d’Arnaud’s replacements.
Since d’Arnaud’s last game on April 25th, Rene Rivera and Kevin Plawecki have combined to hit .190/.273/.289. While they have been good pitch framers, and Rivera has been a stabilizing force behind the plate, Plawecki and Rivera have both established themselves as poor hitting backup catchers. The Mets need a starting catcher that can hit. That was supposed to be d’Arnaud. It could be Lucroy now.
With that said, the Mets should pass on Lucroy despite his being better than any of the Mets catchers.
The reason the Mets can do this is because d’Arnaud has begun playing in rehab games, and he has had no setbacks this far. He will begin catching in rehab games soon. As per baseball’s 20 game rehab rule, d’Arnaud is set to return to the Mets on Sunday, June 26th at the latest.
Assuming he’s healthy, d’Arnaud can continue being a good overall catcher. He’s a better than average pitch framer. He’s coming off a .268/.340/.485 season. He hit three homeruns in the postseason last year. The only issue that remains is if he can throw out base stealers with his injured shoulder. With the way Mets pitchers hold on base runners, that may not be as big an issue as one might normally believe.
With his injury history, there may come a point in time the Mets decide to move on from d’Arnaud. That time may come sooner rather than later. However, now is not that time. The Mets have bigger issues.
James Loney has been a fine stopgap at first base, but he’s still only hitting .250/.302/.350. He’s not the long term solution. Wilmer Flores has done a yeoman’s job at third hitting .389/.450/.500. He is been much better with his approach at the plate. He is working the counts and starting to draw some walks. He also has an unsustainably high .500 BABIP leading you to believe he is due for a regression back to the .255/.292/.385 career hitter he is. Overall, the Mets continue to have long term holes at first and third with no one really knowing when or if Wright and Duda can return.
Accordingly, the Mets need to husband their resources so they can make a move to acquire a third and/or first baseman. That’s not Lucroy UNLESS the Mets feel comfortable paying the huge price he’ll command on the trade market to play first base . . . a position he has only played 43 games in his seven year career.
Editor’s Note: this was first published metsmerizedonline.com
To their credit, the Mets have built an organization deep with pitching talent. When you do that, you are eventually going to be faced with a difficult decision over who to keep and who to trade, who to promote and who to keep down, and who to protect and who to expose in the Rule 5 Draft. These are difficult and challenging decisions. With that said, this is why the front office is paid the money that they are paid. This past year the Mets had a choice between protecting Matthew Bowman or Jeff Walters in the Rule 5 Draft.
Bowman was a 2012 13th round selection out of Princeton University. He is a four pitch pitcher with no real outstanding out pitch. He was projected as a back of the rotation starter for a Mets organization that is deep in pitching talent. Therefore, if Bowman was ever going to make it to the majors, he was going to have to make it in the bullpen as a swing guy like a Logan Verrett or a Sean Gilmartin. With that in mind, the Mets decided to protect the player who had already had success in the bullpen.
That was their 2010 seventh round selection out off the University of Georgia, Jeff Walters. Walters possessed a 95+ MPH fastball with a hard slider he had difficulty controlling. In 2013, he had a breakout season in AA going 4-3 with a 2.01 ERA and a 1.017 WHIP. In 2014, he was promoted to AAA, and he struggled mightily. As it turned out, Walters needed Tommy John surgery costing him the end of the 2014 season and the beginning of the 2015 season. When he returned, he started working his way back up the Mets minor league system starting with Savannah. He ended the year in AA where he went 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP in 18 innings.
Now, it was likely that either Bowman or Walters were going to be picked in the Rule 5 draft given their repertoire and success in the minor leagues. You could’ve easily made a case for either player. The Mets chose Bowman. Unfortunately, the Mets chose wrong.
With the Cardinals this year, Bowman has been pitching well out of the bullpen. In his 19 appearances, he is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.080WHIP. Batters are only hitting .232/.286/.347. To put it in perspective, current Mets reliever Jim Henderson is a 1-2 with a 3.52 ERA and a 1.348 WHIP. Batters are hitting .221/.313/.384 against him. So overall, Bowman has not only pitched well this year, but he has also pitched well enough to be considered for the current Mets bullpen, which has been good all year.
Walters, on the other hand, has not been very good. Walters reported to AAA where he has pitched in 26 games going 0-2 with a 9.22 ERA and a 2.268 WHIP. Due to the Mets current roster crunch with the various injuries at the major league level, Walters was the natural choice to remove from the 40 man roster. Unfortunately, Walters hasn’t rewarded the Mets faith in him when they selected him over Bowman.
This predicament only serves to highlight the fact that the Mets have a strong minor league system. Hopefully, Walters will rebound and return to the form the Mets had seen from him in AA. In the meantime, Bowman continues to have success for the Cardinals. Fortunately, the Mets decision to keep Walters over Bowman hasn’t served to come back and bite them. Hopefully, it never will.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net
Despite the Pirates being in the thick of the Wild Card race, and there being no reason to expect for them to drop out of the race, Jon Heyman wrote in his Today’s Knuckleball article that the Pirates could be willing to part with David Freese at the trade deadline. Due to the Mets injury situation, Heyman linked Freese to the Mets.
Assuming that Freese is truly available, and the price is reasonable, Freese would be a solid addition to the New York Mets.
For his career, Freese is a career .277/.346/.418 hitter with a 112 career OPS+ and 115 wRC+. His 162 game averages are 30 doubles, 15 homeruns, and 77 RBI. With the exception of a poor 2013 season, which has proven to be an outlier, Freese has been an average defensive third baseman. Over the course of his career, Freese has been a good hitter and a solid defender. He would be a benefit to almost any team with postseason aspirations.
Here’s the catch: Freese has been even better this year.
This year, Freese is hitting .292/.373/.427 with a 127 OPS+ and a 124 wRC+ in 51 games. This could be construed as a small sample size, but there are some underlying numbers that suggest his current batting line will be sustainable over the course of a full season. First, Freese is still beating up on lefties like he has done his whole career. He has faced lefties in 21 games this year, and he is hitting .366/.409/.610 against them. For a Mets team that has been having some difficulty against lefties, especially with the Nationals Gio Gonzalez, adding Freese’s bat would be beneficial.
However, Freese’s numbers are not just reflective of his facing lefties. Freese is also hitting better against rightes. For his career, Freese has been a .269/.337/.401 hitter against righties. He is now hitting .269/.362/.369 against them. It’s a moderate, but important, improvement. The underlying reason for this improvement may be his approach at the plate. Freese has been hitting a lot of groundballs this year. Freese is hitting the ball on the ground 64.2% of the time. Normally, in this age of the shift, this could be construed as a negative. Many times, we have seen batters like Curtis Granderson pull balls in to the shift. That isn’t the case with Freese. Historically, Freese has hit the ball to all fields. In fact, over the course of his career, Freese pulls the ball 35.1% of the time, hits it up the middle 36.4% of the time, and goes to the opposite field 28.5% of the time. In essence, it is hard to defend a player like that with the shift.
One of the corresponding factors to Freese hitting more groundballs is his hitting fewer flyballs. Typically, unless you are hitting the ball over the fence, flyballs are turned into outs. With Freese hitting fewer flyballs there is a decreased chance he will hit into an out. The increased groundball rate coupled with the decreased flyball rate are strong factors in Freese’s high .397 BABIP. Typically, the league average is .300, which would lead many to believe that Freese is due for a regression. Even if that were to happen, keep in mind Freese’s career BABIP is .342. In essence, he is someone who’s natural talents led to a higher BABIP. Therefore, even if Freese were due for a regression, it wouldn’t be as drastic as one might believe it to be.
Another benefit to adding Freese is the fact that he’s a more versatile player now. Since he has joined the Pirates, Freese has also played at first and second in addition to third. Thereofr,e even if David Wright and Lucas Duda were to return to the Mets completely healthy, Freese would still be an useful player off the bench.
Overall, Freese appears to be a better hitter and a more versatile fielder. He’s exactly the type of player the Mets should be looking to add to the team. The only thing standing in the way of that happening is the Pirates. They first have to make him available, and the Mets need to be willing to meet their demands. That is much easier said than done.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com