Musings
With Donald Trump having defeated Hillary Clinton in Tuesday’s election, a Republican has returned to the White House. Hopefully, that means the Mets are primed to win a World Series. In any event, a presidential election and a Mets season has come to a close. Just like past presidential elections, there was one Mets player who played better than the rest. Can you name the Mets players who had the best season in an election year? Good luck!
Ron Hunt, Tom Seaver, Jon Matlack, Lee Mazzilli, Keith Hernandez, David Cone, Sid Fernandez, Bernard Gilkey, Edgardo Alfonzo, Al Leiter, Johan Santana, David Wright, Noah Syndergaard
The biggest question mark heading into the 2017 season is who is going to play second base for the New York Mets. Neil Walker handled the job quite well, and there has been interest from both sides on a reunion. We should know more about the potential for a reunion after Monday’s deadline for Walker to either accept or to reject the $17.2 million qualifying offer. While that decision hangs in the balance, along with Walker’s return, the Mets have to investigate all options for the position. Here are some candidates:
INTERNAL OPTIONS
2016 Stats: .333/.345/.476, 4 2B, 3B, HR, 16 RBI, 33 G
For many the 27 year old Rivera is the natural choice to become the Mets second baseman should Walker depart in free agency. In Rivera’s time with the Mets, he showed the ability to square up the ball at the plate, hit the ball gap-to-gap with some power, and he played better than expected defensively. Moreover, when there was a vacancy at the position due to a number of injuries, Rivera rose from the pack, and he staked his claim. He was the second baseman in the Wild Card Game, and he got a huge double in the game (that went for naught).
Still, there are a number of holes in Rivera’s game. He is never going to draw enough walks to justify playing everyday. Over the course of a full season, his defense may not look as good as it did in a very short sample size. Moreover, he is not the type of hitter that will hit for enough power to overcome those deficiencies. Overall, Rivera has shown he can play in the major leagues. Unforunately, he has not shown enough for the Mets to give him the second base job.
2016 Stats: .267/.326/.443, 13 2B, 4 3B, 8 HR, 24 RBI, 9 SB, 60 G
With the Mets having picked up Reyes’ option, we know he is going to be a part of the 2017 Mets. What we don’t know is exactly where he is going to play. Most likely, he is insurance for David Wright‘s back. However, if Walker should depart in free agency, he could move back to the middle infield and become the starting second baseman.
That is probably not the best idea for the Mets. Last year, Reyes had marked platoon splits. From the right-hand side of the plate, Reyes hit .380/.456/.740. From the left-hand side of the plate, Reyes only hit .239/.293/.371. This is more than just a small sample size. These numbers are emblematic of a downward trend for Reyes from the left-hand side of the plate since 2014. While the hope is Reyes can fix these issues with Kevin Long, much in the same way as Walker did with Long in 2016, it is far from a guarantee it will work out as well. Looking at the numbers, along with his diminishing range, Reyes best help to the Mets may just be a super-sub.
2016 Stats: .267/.319/.469, 14 2B, 16 HR, 49 RBI, SB, 103 G
Essentially, everything said about Reyes goes double for Flores. He absolutely kills left-handed pitching (.340/.383/.710) while struggling against right-handed pitching (.232/.289/.353). At 25, Flores still has upside, and he has power in his bat, but at this point in his career, those intangibles do not outweigh the struggles he has defensively. Like Rivera and Reyes, Flores is probably best suited to the bench.
2016 AAA Stats: .325/.390/.448, 27 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 55 RBI, 117 G
With the rise of Amed Rosario, Cecchini is going to have to move to second base if the former first round pick is ever going to become a starter for the Mets at the major league level. It is fair to say Cecchini’s bat is there. He is a player that can work the count, and he can drive the ball from gap-to-gap. The hope is that as the 22 year old ages, some of those gappers become homers as he develops physically.
Therein lies the issue with Cecchini. Is he really read to play in the majors after just four games in September? Better yet, is he ready to play second base after not having played more than two consecutive days at the position in his professional career. Given the fact this Mets team has World Series aspirations, the answer to the question is most likely “no.” With that Cecchini is better suited to being the starting second baseman in AAA next year and awaiting his opportunity.
2016 Stats: .280/.336/.474, 30 2B, 3B, 23 HR, 62 RBI, 141 G
This is the most unlikely internal option to play second base for the Mets next season. He is signed through next year, and he has a reasonably 2018 option the Mets could exercise should Rosario not be ready to take over by then. The mentioning of Cabrera serves to acknowledge the reality that his range is subpar for the position, and with his knee injuries last year, we should not expect it to get any better. In fact, his range may eventually force the Mets to move him. It is also possible Rosario has another outstanding season in the minors, and he may force his way onto the Mets roster next year. Even if neither situation presents itself, moving Cabrera to second would give the Mets a number of options on the free agent and trade market.
FREE AGENTS
2016 Stats: .285/.335/.446, 29 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 86 RBI, 21 SB, 156 G
Desmond bet on himself when he took a one year deal from the Rangers, and he had an All Star season. However, it should be noted that came as an outfielder. It should also be noted Desmond has not played second base since his five games there in 2009. While the Mets could shift Cabrera to second to permit Desmond to return to short, it should be noted Desmond is an even worse defensive shortstop than Cabrera and Reyes.
The other issues with Desmond are the fact that he did most of his damage in the first half, and he did most of his damage at the Ballpark at Arlington. When you also consider the fact that he received a qualifying offer from the Rangers, the Mets would probably be better suited to looking elsewhere this offseason.
2016 Korean Stats: .330/.391/.558, 22 2B, 3 3B, 26 HR, 104 RBI, 118 G
With Korean players having succeeded in the major leagues the past few seasons, it is possible the Mets could be inclined to sign Hwang this offseason. Even with that said, under Sandy Alderson, the Mets have been reticent to attempt to sign foreign players to be everyday players for their major league club. Additionally, while Hwang has middle infield experience, it is at shortstop. In reality, he is more of a third baseman, and at 29 years old, it is difficult to gauge whether he could even make the transition to second.
2016 Stats: .252/.319/.396, 26 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 52 RBI, 138 G
Yeah, this is never going to happen. Moving on.
That’s just the issue – the middle infield market really is Walker and then no one else. With that in mind, the Mets best option might just be bringing back Walker and hoping his surgically repaired back can withstand the rigors of playing everyday. If not, the Mets are going to have to turn to some type of platoon that features a number of players we do not know can handle the position defensively, and almost all of whom hit much better against left-handed pitching.
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the third set of grades, here are the Mets middle infielders:
If the month began with an “A,” you knew Walker was going to be great. In April, he hit .307/.337/.625 with nine homers and 19 RBI. In August, he hit .389/.450/.667 with six homers and 10 RBI. In the months that did not begin with an “A,” Walker wasn’t as good. From May 1st – July 31st, Walker hit .242/.322/.369 with eight homers and 26 RBI. Basically, Walker was feast or famine at the plate.
On the positive side, Walker became a dangerous hitter from the right-hand side of the plate for the first time in his career. That played a large role in him tying his career high with 23 homers despite him only playing in 113 games. The other positive note was that Walker played some of the best second base of his career. Basically, when Walker was on, he was one of the best second baseman in the game.
Unfortunately, when he wasn’t on top of his game, he wasn’t a very good player. We could chalk it up to him being a streaky player, but with this being his first season with the Mets, we really don’t know that to be true. More likely, Walker’s struggles were related to his back. He stated there were periods of time over the summer his feet were numb. That would more than explain his issues. It also explained why he opted for season ending surgery despite him being hot at the plate and the Mets trying to get into the Wild Card picture.
Overall, Walker hit .282/.347/.476 with 23 homers and 55 RBI in 113 games. These were good numbers from a player that at times was a very pleasant surprise during the season. It is unknown if he will re-sign with the Mets. No matter what his future plans are, Walker left an overall positive impression during his time in Flushing.
Lost in Cabrera’s hot streak to end the season was the fact he was not great for most of the season. Up until August 1st, when the Mets finally put him on the disabled list, Cabrera was only hitting .255/.308/.410 with 13 homers and 33 RBI. Those 33 RBI are astounding when you consider he seemingly went the entire summer without getting a hit with a runner in scoring position. To make matters worse, his defense just was not good. He had a -4.2 DRS and a -7 DRS at the position. To put those numbers in perspective, people were frustrated with Wilmer Flores at the position in 2015, and he had a -2.5 UZR and a -10 DRS.
Essentially, for most of the season, the Mets got an older version of Flores. However, there were two things missing: (1) the 30 Cabrera did not have Flores’ upside; and (2) the tears. The best you can say about Cabrera was he made all of the routine plays, which made everyone feel as if he was the better option. It did not matter he couldn’t get to as many balls – he just looked better at the position. In reality, he wasn’t any better than Flores was. That was at least true until Cabrera came off the disabled list.
From August 19th until the end of the season, Cabrera was the best hitter in baseball. During that stretch, Cabrera hit .345/.406/.635 with 10 homers and 29 RBI. If not for Cabrera’s hot hitting, the Mets probably don’t claim one of the Wild Card spots. This month and a half long stretch was so good, it made you forget about the middling to poor play the preceded it. Keep in mind that even with this insane stretch, Cabrera still hit .280/.336/.474 with 23 homers and 62 RBI.
With Cabrera signed for one more year (with an option after that), the hope is that Cabrera’s knee is completely healed (it did not require offseason surgery), and that he can be more like the guy he was to finish the year than the player who was not very good to start the year.
With the Mets poorly crafting a bench to start the season, they were unable to withstand the long DL stints of Lucas Duda and David Wright. Accordingly, the Mets traded for Johnson in what is looking like it will become an annual tradition.
Johnson’s second stint with the Mets was better than his first. In 82 games, Johnson hit .268/.328/.459 with nine homers and 24 RBI. He did most of his damage as a part time player over the summer. At that time, he was a key contributor off the bench who could be relied upon in a spot start or a pinch hitting appearance. Unfortunately, with the Walker and Flores season ending injuries, Johnson was asked to do more, and he showed why he was better as a bench player.
In the final month of the season, Johnson played in 22 games hitting .208/.255/.313 with one homer and four RBI. Heading into the Wild Card Game, he informed the Mets he didn’t feel comfortable playing first base thereby leaving the team with James Loney at first base. It was a huge decision in a game the Mets were shut out by Madison Bumgarner.
Once again, Johnson did enough to show the Mets he should return in the 2017 season. However, given how the Mets do business, it appears as if they are more comfortably trading away another Akeel Morris type of prospect over giving him a market deal and strengthening their bench.
Rivera went from being constantly passed over for a chance to play in the majors to being the Mets starting second baseman in the Wild Card Game. Overall, Rivera would get to play in 33 games hitting .333/.345/.476 with three homers and 16 RBI. In the Wild Card Game, he was one of the few Mets batters that could hit Bumgarner with him going 1-4 with a leadoff double in the fifth that probably should have set up the Mets to take the lead.
Overall, Rivera showed himself that he is good enough to be a major league player. Given the low walk rates (in the minors and the majors) and his not having a true position, he is most likely no more than a utility player. Considering he was undrafted and the Mets continuously passed him over, that is a remarkable achievement.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links. If you want to see the prior entries, here is the link for catchers, and here is the link for middle infielders.
One of the biggest issues with the 2017 Mets was the production they received from first base. The precipitous drop in production was a major factor in why the 2016 Mets scored fewer runs than the 2015 Mets. Remember, the 2015 Mets once infamously had John Mayberry, Jr. and Eric Campbell hitting in the middle of the lineup. With that in mind, getting improved production out of first base needs to be a priority for the Mets this offseason. Here is what should be available for the Mets this offseason:
INTERNAL FIRST BASEMAN
Duda is exactly the player the Mets need to revive their offense in 2017. From 2014-2015, Duda hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. He is a home run threat in the middle of your order, and he is the classic slugging first baseman.
The issue with Duda is no one knows if he is healthy. In 2015, he went on the disabled list with a herniated disc in his lower back. In 2016, he suffered a stress fracture in his lower back, and he took longer than expected to return from the injury. While he tried admirably to try to play in the Wild Card Game, he just wasn’t ready. For the season, he only played in 47 games hitting .229/.302/.412 with seven homers and 23 RBI.
While all indications are Duda is completely healthy, it is unknown whether he can withstand the rigors of a 162 game schedule. It is also unknown whether he can return to form after suffering back injuries in consecutive seasons. At the moment, it is anticipated he will earn approximately $7 million in arbitration. For the production we know he is capable of producing, that is a steep bargain. Not knowing if he can produce, $7 million could be an expensive gamble, especially in light of Wright’s situation.
Smith is coming off a terrific year in AA where he finally began to fulfill some of the offensive potential he has by hitting for more power in the second half of the season. He is a a highly regarded prospect who is already a slick defender at first base. Still, he is just 21 years old, and he has yet to have an at-bat above AAA. He is not ready to be the Opening Day first baseman, and it is quite possible he may not be ready to play in the majors next year.
PLAYERS CHANGING POSITIONS
Time and again, people state Wright should just move across the diamond and play first base. Saying that presents a clear misunderstanding of the first base position and how taxing it would be on Wright.
Other than catcher, first base is the most demanding physical position for a player. At first base, a player is constantly stretching, turning, and twisting in the hopes of getting a throw from one of his infielders that much quicker to turn a close play into an out. With a runner on first, the first baseman has to spring off the bag and into his defensive position as the pitcher delivers the ball. Like a third baseman, he charges the bunts and dives for balls down the line. According to Dr. Walter P. Jacobsen, DO, a neurosurgeon, these activities that are high impact and require twisting are activities that should be avoided. These activities are more prevalent at first than third base.
Even assuming this was incorrect, that Wright was better suited to first base, when is he going to get the opportunity to transition there? Wright had season ending cervical fusion surgery, and presumably, he is going to need to spend most of his time in the offseason rehabbing and figuring out yet another pregame routine that will permit him to play in as many games as possible. As such, there is no time for him to learn first base.
Without or without Cespedes’ return, the Mets are going to have a glut of everyday caliber outfielders, and one of them may need to find a new home. That new home could be on another team or at another position. With UZR and DRS rating Bruce was the Mets worst outfielder, he would be the likely candidate to move to first base.
The one caution is Bruce has only played three games there in his major league career, and all three of those games were two years ago. Even accounting for that, Bruce may have the athleticism to adapt to first base and succeed there on the major league level. It is also a way to keep him and his 30 home run caliber bat in the lineup every day while also allowing Curtis Granderson, another Mets right fielder who can hit 30 home runs, in the lineup everyday.
Still, before moving someone over to first base, Mike Piazza should always be a caution to Mets fans that not just anyone can move over there. It is a difficult position that requires hard work in the offseason. If this is the plan, the Mets need to implement it sooner rather than later.
None other than Keith Hernandez believes Conforto should be playing first base with him saying, “He more than likely is going to end up at first base, though it’s unlikely he’ll be anything more than average there.” (nj.com). While it is far from a ringing endorsement, it is notable when Hernandez, the best defensive first baseman in major league history, states you should play his position.
For his part, Conforto is open to the possibility saying, “I took some reps in college over at first base just for emergency-type situations. I think that’s something that’s very, very interesting, something I’d be open to, obviously. I just want to help the team.” (New York Post).
Moving Conforto there means you won’t have to displace a veteran like Bruce. However, it does create a few problems. First, choosing to move Conforto over Bruce also means choosing to move the better defensive outfielder out of the outfield. Second, moving Conforto there could become a potential barrier to Smith or Peter Alonso at first base in the upcoming seasons. Third, having Conforto change positions to the infield could be yet another obstacle in the young player’s development.
For a myriad of reasons ranging from a wrist injury to uneven playing time to him just falling into slumps like any other player, the 2016 season was a lost one for Conforto. He went from the Mets top hitting prospect to a young player Terry Collins entrusted to little more than pinch hitting duty down the stretch. It is quite possible the best thing for him is for the Mets to pick a position in the outfield and let him stay there and allow him to work with Kevin Long to get back to what worked well for him.
EXPENSIVE OPTIONS
Tigers GM Al Avila has already announced the Tigers are looking to get younger and shed some payroll this offseason. With that in mind, the Tigers have a number of interesting trade candidates making big money like Cabrera.
At 33, Cabrera had another terrific season hitting .316/.393/.563 with 38 homers and 108 RBI. Should Cespedes depart this offseason, Cabrera would more than replace Cespedes in the lineup. However, the Mets chances of obtaining Cabrera are unlikely due to the cost. First, it is going to take a huge haul of players to obtain them, and in the past, the Mets have shown unwillingness to move one of their big pitchers like Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, or Steven Matz. Given Cabrera’s production, it is likely the Tigers ask for one of these players and/or a big prospect like Smith, Amed Rosario, or both.
Even if there was a middle ground on players the Mets deemed acceptable, it is hard to imagine them adding Cabrera’s contract. Cabrera still has seven years $132 million left on his deal. The contract carries through to his age 40 season, and there are two vesting options at the back end of the deal for $30 million a piece. If Cabrera does not age well, this contract would become the type of albatross Sandy Alderson typically avoids.
Bringing back Turner would be a page out of the Todd Zeile handbook. While Turner has not played regularly at first base, he has shown the ability to play over there, and his bat may help the Mets improve in 2016.
Moreover, Turner may need to move to first base to lengthen his career. Over the past few seasons, he has had knee issues, and he may not be well suited for the third base position in the time of the modern shift era that requires a third baseman to cover more ground than they did a decade or so ago.
There does remain some issues for Turner. First and foremost is the aforementioned knee issues. Second, Turner took off when he played in his hometown. There is no telling if he would struggle playing on the east coast again. Third, he regressed from an on base perspective this year. In 2014 and 2015, Turner was a player who had a .384 on base percentage with a .492 slugging. This year, Turner’s OBP dropped to .339 even while his slugging percentage stayed in the same vicinity (.493). This might have been a product of his knee issues or it could have been a product of him swinging for the fences more as evidenced by his career high 27 homers.
In either event, Turner is not the safest choice, especially when you are asking him to play out of position. These fears become magnified when you consider Turner will likely received a qualifying offer, and he will likely get a big contract offer from someone, including but not limited to the Dodgers, to play third base.
THE DESIGNATED HITTERS
Encarnacion may prove to be the biggest power bat on the free agent market. He is coming off a year that saw him hit .263/.357/.529 with 42 homers and a league leading 127 RBI. Over the past three seasons, Encarnacion is hitting .269/.361/.544 while averaging 38 homers and 112 RBI.
There are two issues with Encarnacion. First, much of his stats have been generated as a result of him hitting in the Rogers Centre, which is a hitter’s park. In his career, Encarnacion has hit .272/.360/.535 there. Last year, on the road, Encarnaction was a .246/.342/.492 hitter on the road. While it is a drop-off, the Mets would gladly take Encarnacion’s road production from their first base position next year.
Therein lies the real problem with Encarnacion. He’s a DH. Encarnacion has not played more than half a season at first base in his entire career. In his last five years with the Blue Jays, he has split his time between first and DH. While advanced metrics like UZR and DRS rate him to be an average first baseman, it is unknown whether he could withstand the rigors of playing in the field everyday. Those concerns are amplified for a player that will turn 34 next year, will command a large contract, and will most likely recent a qualifying offer.
Seemingly, from the moment Santana came up to the Cleveland Indians as a catcher, the team has sought a position for him. He has proven his best position is DH.
Santana is coming off a terrific year that saw him hit ..259/.366/.498 with 34 homers and 87 RBI. Those were the highest home run and RBI totals of his career. In his six full seasons with the Indians, Santana has averaged 24 homers and 81 RBI. With his on base skills and his switch hitting ability, Santana would be a welcome addition to the Mets lineup. However, like Encarnacion, the real question is whether he can be an everyday first baseman.
Like Encarnaction, he rates as average when he does play there. Unlike Encarnacion, he played almost a full season there in 2015. Moreover, he is four years younger than Encarnacion. So while both may receive qualifying offers and large contract offers on the free agent market, Santana may prove to be the better bet for the Mets should they look to upgrade the first base position in free agency.
QUESTIONABLE OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION
The best thing you can say about Loney in 2016 was he was a definitive upgrade over the Mets internal options like Campbell. Unfortunately, Loney showed little that would entice the Mets to bring him back next season. Loney finished the year hitting .257/.287/.369 with five homers and 18 RBI in 63 games after the All Star Break. He also showed he had limited range and an inability to stretch far for throws made to first. While he was an improvement over what the Mets had in 2016, the Mets are simply going to have to do better than him in 2017.
The Cleveland Indians took a one year flier on Napoli this offseason, and it has been a boon for them as Napoli has been a major contributor for a team now playing in the World Series. Still, there is caution for Napoli, who has a history of hip problems, and whose numbers were not great this season.
In 150 games, Napoli hit .239/.335/.465 with 34 homers and 101 RBI. In 2015, Napoli bounced around, and he hit .224/.324/.410 with 18 homers and 50 RBI in 133 games. With Napoli turning 35 next year, it is hard to believe he will have another strong campaign. Furthermore, the last thing this Mets offense needs is another low OBP guy who is seemingly all or nothing at the plate.
For a few seasons, Lind had proven himself to be a good on base player who may not have the traditional power you typically want from the first base position. In 2016, Lind played for the Mariners, and his production fell off a cliff. In 126 games, Lind hit .239/.286/.431 with 20 homers and 58 RBI. Historically, Lind has also struggled to hit left-handed pitching. Lind is more of a buy-low candidate in the event there are no better options than he is an upgrade you would seek on the free agent market.
BEST CHOICE
Ultimately, it may behoove the Mets to bring back Duda for one more season. If he produces at his normal levels, he will be exactly what this offense needs. Better yet, if he produces at that level, the Mets could give him a qualifying offer next offseason thereby helping them gain a first round draft pick in the process (assuming no changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement). Furthermore, with Duda, the Mets have a nice bridge to Smith should he take another leap this year and prove himself ready to contribute at the major league level ahead of schedule.
Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive. For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month. Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment. There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection. It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets. Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad). For the second set of grades, here are the Mets middle infielders:
Lucas Duda C-
The one sure thing you could say about Duda was the Mets missed him in 2016. The drop off at the plate from him to Loney was massive. Surprisingly, despite Loney’s reputation as being a good defender, there was a similar drop-off in the field. We know the Mets made the postseason anyway without Duda. What we don’t know is whether the Mets would have competed in the division or won the Wild Card Game with Duda in the lineup.
What we do know is that when Duda was on the field, he just wasn’t productive. In the 47 games he did play, he hit .229/.302/.412 with just seven doubles, seven home runs, and 23 RBI. Early on in the season, many were expecting Duda to have a typical breakout where he carried the Mets offensively for a few weeks. However, with the stress fracture in his back that breakout was never coming. He worked his tail off to get back and help the Mets down the stretch and into the postseason, but he just wasn’t ready yet. Overall, it was just a lost season for Duda. Hopefully, his back will be better in 2017, and he can help the Mets win the National League East again.
On the one hand, Loney really helped stabilize the first base position when he first came to the Mets. Before the All Star Break, he was hitting .277/.336/.438 with eight doubles, four homers, and 16 RBI. It wasn’t your typical first baseman’s production, but it was something you could live with especially when your other option at the time was Eric Campbell.
However, from there his season really fell off the cliff. After the All Star Break, Loney hit .257/.287/.369 with eight doubles, five homers, and 18 RBI. This production is even worse when you consider Terry Collins shielded Loney from left-handed pitching for most of the year. Couple that with Loney’s terrible defense and his almost refusal to stretch at first base, you saw why the Tampa Bay Rays of all teams paid him approximately $9 million to not play for them, and why no team was willing to give him a major league job before the season started.
There were many unknowns about Wright in 2016. We didn’t know if he could play, and if he could play, we didn’t know if he could produce. What we discovered was that he could still produce, but, unfortunately, he could not stay on the field. Wright would actually play in one less regular season game than he would last year before he needed season ending cervical fusion surgery (not spinal stenosis surgery). In the 37 games he did play, he hit .220/.350/.438 with eight doubles, seven home runs, and 14 RBI. They were decent numbers for the time he played, but unfortunately, he didn’t play enough.
Jose Reyes B-
The best thing you could say about Reyes was he wasn’t a distraction, nor were there any known repeated acts of domestic violence. If Reyes has become a better man, and if the domestic violence issues are all in the past, this season was a resounding success for him, and we should all wish him and his family well. With that noted, the grades are for the performance on the field.
The good with Reyes was despite his inexperience at third base, he actually adapted to the position quite well (even if UZR & DRS disagree). Furthermore, Reyes was a beast from the right-hand side of the plate. As a right-handed batter, Reyes hit .380/.456/.740 with six doubles, four homers, and 10 RBI. There was also a two week stretch in August (15th – 30th) where Reyes helped carry the Mets offensively hitting .385/.429/.538 with five doubles, one triple, one home run, and five RBI.
Unfortunately, that August stretch was about all Reyes did for the Mets from an offensive standpoint. Taking out that hot two week stretch, Reyes was a .226/.292/.411 hitter. Most of the reason for that was Reyes could not hit right-handed pitching. In fact, he hit .239/.293/.371 against right-handed pitching. Additionally, Reyes faded down the stretch hitting .234/.315/.396 over the final month of the season.
While you could say Reyes did an overall good job for the Mets, and he was a good presence in the clubhouse, you cannot come out of the 2016 season with any other impression than Reyes has regressed to the point where he is either a platoon option or a bench player.
Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.
Looking at the BBWAA criteria for MVP voting, which I try to follow, it does not give much guidance on how to evaluate a player in a pennant race against a player who was stuck on a horrendous team but had an incredible season. Overall, this has created a rift between people who interpret MVP to mean “most valuable” and for those who interpret MVP to mean “best player.” While people stand on soap boxes and pound the podium for their side, there really is no wrong answer.
Personally, I tend to look at the “most valuable” side of the spectrum. A player who had a great year for a playoff team certainly had more value than a player who had a great year for a last place club. As the late great Ralph Kiner used to say during Mets telecasts, when he asked for a raise after a season he led the league in home runs (which he would do an impressive seven straight seasons), Branch Rickey told him something to the effect of, “We finished last with you, we could’ve finished last without you.”
While that is a little extreme, there is another factor at play. With the exception of players like Mike Scott and Bobby Richardson, it is generally accepted that the MVP comes from the team that won the postseason series. For example, in hitting three home runs, and big home runs at that, Curtis Granderson was arguably the best player in the 2015 World Series. However, the MVP went to Salvador Perez who had a good World Series for the Kansas City Royals. The guiding principle here is that you need to have an otherworldly type of series (or season) to win an MVP award for a losing team.
This is where it gets dicey as Mike Trout had one of those seasons. In 159 games, Trout hit .315/.441/.550 with 32 doubles, five triples, 29 homers, and 100 RBI. Trout would lead the league in runs (123), walks (116), OBP, OPS+ (174), runs created (148), adjusted batting runs (65), times on base (300), WPA (6.5), and wRC+ (171). His name was also scatterd across the Top 10s of the few categories he did not lead. It should come as no surprise then that he lead the majors in both bWAR (10.6) and fWAR (9.4). With a season like that, how can you justify voting for someone else?
Well, Mookie Betts was just that good. In 158 games, Betts hit .318/.363/.534 with 42 doubles, five triples, 31 homers, and 113 RBI. These are great numbers even if they are not on par with the offensive season Trout had. Betts led the league in at-bats (672) and total bases (359). He would also finish second in batting average, tenth in OBP, eighth in slugging, eighth in OPS (.897), second in plate appearances (730), second in runs scored (122), second in hits (214), third in doubles, tenth in triples, fourth in RBI, sixth in stolen bases (26), third in runs created (133), fourth in extra base hits (78), and eighth in WPA (3.1). Again, these are good numbers, but it is not the type of numbers that would cause Betts to be named MVP over Trout.
What gives Betts the edge is defense. Betts led the majors in DRS (32). He was third in the American League and fifth in the majors in UZR (17.8). Betts far outpaced Trout in both of these categories as Trout had a 6 DRS and a -0.3 UZR. Where Trout outclassed Betts as a hitter, Betts outclassed Trout as a fielder.
Accordingly, Betts was just behind Trout in bWAR (9.6) and fWAR (7.8). That was good for second in the American League. Overall, the separation between the two is like the separation between Betts and Trout was the difference between Joe Mauer and Chase Headley.
Looking at it through that prism, was there really that much of a difference between Betts and Trout? In my opinion, there wasn’t. Accordingly, Betts’ team having been in a pennant race all season, and having won the American League East, is a tiebreaker for me. With that Mookie Betts is the American League MVP.
Third – Manny Machado
Machado’s name gets lost in discussions over the young player you would rather have discussions. Most say it’s between Trout and Bryce Harper. However, Machado once again proved he belongs in the discussion. The 23 year old hit .294/.343/.533 with 40 doubles, one triple, 37 homers, and 96 RBI for an Orioles team that squeaked its way into the postseason as a Wild Card despite having next to no starting pitching.
He was his typical Gold Glove self at third base. With a J.J. Hardy injury, Machado had to slide over to shortstop for 45 games where he was above average proving that Machado can do anything in the field.
Fourth – Robinson Cano
In his third year as a Mariner, Cano finally put together a season like the ones he used to have with the Yankees. In 161 games, Cano hit .298/.350/.533 with 33 doubles, two triples, 39 homers, and 103 RBI. He did this while playing a very good second base. He was one of the biggest reasons why the Mariners were in the Wild Card hunt all the way until the final week of the season.
Fifth – Josh Donaldson
The reigning American League MVP put together yet another MVP caliber season. In 155 games, Donaldson hit .284/.404/.549 with 32 doubles, five triples, 37 homers, and 99 RBI. He finished fourth in the American League in WAR (7.4), and he led the Blue Jays to back-to-back postseason berths for the first time since 1992-1993.
Sixth – Adrian Beltre
In the Texas Rangers pre-Beltre history, they had four postseason appearances in their 50year franchise history. With Beltre, the Rangers have gone to the postseason four out of the last six years. Beltre has been a huge part of that as he was again this season. In 153 games, Beltre hit .300/.358/.521 with 31 doubles, 32 homers, and 104 RBI. By the way, the 37 year old still plays a Gold Glove caliber third base.
Seventh – Corey Kluber
Kluber was the best pitcher in the American League this year pitching 215.0 innings in 32 starts going 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 227 strikeouts, 1.056 WHIP, 149 ERA+, 3.26 FIP, and a 6.5 WAR. He led the league in pitching WAR and shutouts. He was the ace for an Indians team that won the Central. While the postseason does not count for regular season awards (and this ballot was submitted prior to the postseason), we have seen just how valuable Kluber is to the Indians.
Eighth – Kyle Seager
If we are being fair, the Mariners were a two-three man group offensively, and that group kept them in the Wild Card race until the last week of the season. Seager was the second best player on the team, and he was almost as responsible for the Mariners success as Cano was. Overall, Seager hit an impressive .278/.359/.499 with 36 doubles, 30 homers, and 99 RBI
Ninth – Jose Altuve
Tenth – Brian Dozier
There are many factors to consider when voting for a candidate today. At this point, they have all be regurgitated and discussed at length, and hopefully, you have made your decision based upon sound criteria. However, if you are looking for a reason to change your mind or reason to have your mind made up for you, or you really want to base this important decision on how the Mets have fared with a Republican or a Democrat in office, you are in luck. Here is how the Mets have performed under each President in their 54 year history:
| President | Seasons | Record | Win % |
| John F. Kennedy | 1962 – 1963 | 91 – 231 | 0.283 |
| Lyndon B. Johnson | 1964 – 1968 | 303 – 506 | 0.375 |
| Richard M Nixon | 1969 – 1974* | 478 – 433 | 0.525 |
| Gerald R. Ford | 1974* – 1976 | 263 – 277 | 0.487 |
| Jimmy Carter | 1977 – 1980 | 260 – 388 | 0.401 |
| Ronald Reagan | 1981 – 1988 | 662 – 573 | 0.536 |
| George H.W. Bush | 1989 – 1992 | 386 – 423 | 0.477 |
| William Jefferson Clinton | 1993 – 2000 | 562 – 506 | 0.526 |
| George W. Bush | 2001 – 2008 | 651 – 643 | 0.503 |
| Barack Obama | 2009 – 2016 | 630-666 | 0.486 |
* Nixon resigned from office August 9, 1974
Here are the cumulative results:
| Party | Record | Win% |
| Democrat | 1,846 – 2,297 | 0.446 |
| Republican | 2,440 – 2,349 | 0.510 |
Here are some interesting Mets postseason facts when there was a Democrat or Republican in the White House.
Democrat Postseason Facts
- The two times the Mets have been to back-to-back postseasons was when there was a Democrat in the White House (1999 & 2000 – Clinton; 2015 & 2016 – Obama)
- The Mets have only had an NLCS MVP when there was a Democrat in the White House (Mike Hampton – 2000; Daniel Murphy – 2015)
- The Mets have only won the division once (2015) with a Democrat in office. The other three postseason appearances were as the Wild Card.
- The Mets have appeared in four total postseasons and two World Series. The Mets are 21-17 in postseason games with the following records per round:
Wild Card Game 0 – 1 NLDS 9 – 4 NLCS 10 – 4 World Series 2 – 8
Republican Postseason Facts
- The Mets have won their only two World Series with a Republican in office (1969 – Nixon; 1986 – Reagan)
- In all five of their appearances in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets were the National Leauge East champions.
- In three of the five appearances, the Mets won 100+ games with the high water mark coming in 1986 with 108 wins
- In four of the five seasons the Mets appeared in the postseason with a Republican in office, the Mets had the best record in the National League (1973 is the exception). In two of those seasons (1986 & 2006), the Mets had the best record in baseball.
- In total, the Mets have appeared in five postseason and three World Series. The Mets are 30-20 in those postseason games with the following records per round:
NLDS 3 – 0 NLCS 16 – 12 World Series 11 – 8
If you wish to mainly focus on player performance over how the team has fared during each administration, Mets players have received more awards during Republican leadership:
Cy Young Award
- Republican 4 (Tom Seaver 1969, 1973, & 1975; Dwight Gooden 1985);
- Democrat 1 (R.A. Dickey 2012)
Rookie of the Year
- Republican 3 (Seaver 1967; Jon Matlack 1972; Darryl Strawberry 1983; Gooden 1984)
- Democrat 1 (Jacob deGrom 2014)
Rolaids Relief Man
- Republican 2 (John Franco 1990; Armando Benitez 2001)
- Democrat 0
Sports Illustrated Man of the Year
- Republican 1 (Seaver 1969)
- Democrat 0
Gold Gloves
- Republican 14 (Tommie Agee 1970; Bud Harrelson 1971; Keith Hernandez 1983 – 1988; Ron Darling 1989; Carlos Beltran 2006 – 2008; David Wright 2007 – 2008)
- Democrat 6 (Doug Flynn 1980; Rey Ordonez 1997 – 1999; Robin Ventura 1999; Juan Lagares 2014)
Silver Sluggers
- Republican 14 (Hernandez 1984; Gary Carter 1985 – 1986; Strawberry 1988; Howard Johnson1989 & 1991; Mike Piazza 2001 – 2002; Jose Reyes 2006; Beltran 2006 – 2007; Wright 2007 – 2008)
- Democrat 5 (Piazza 1998 – 2000; Edgardo Alfonzo 1999; Hampton 2000)
Roberto Clemente Award
- Republican 2 (Carter 1989; Carlos Delgado 2006)
- Democrat 2 (Al Leiter 2000; Curtis Granderson 2016)
From the Front Office side, Republicans have a 2-1 edge in executive of the year with Johnny Murphy winning in 1969, Frank Cashen winning in 1986, and Sandy Alderson winning in 2015. Baseball America named the Mets the top organization in baseball once in a Republican (1984) and once in a Democratic (1995) term.
As a general rule of thumb, the Mets and their players have performed better with a Republican in office. As you enter the voting booths today, take that as you will. Hopefully, you have more sound criteria for choosing your candidate.
Before the 2015 offseason, the qualifying offer system was seen as a gentleman’s agreement. Teams would offer it, and players would agree to decline it and seek a multi-year contract in free agency. However, over time that agreement started to become a big issue for players. Teams began to shy away from signing players who received qualifying offers because they did not want to lose a first round draft pick. This began reducing the market for the proverbial second-tier free agent, which in turn, also reduced the size of the player’s contract. The end result was Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters, and Brett Anderson accepting the qualifying offer.
It probably turned out to be the right move as those players were not likely to receive long-term deals in free agency. If they were to receive an offer, the total contract value most likely wasn’t going to reach the $15.8 million, they were going to receive by accepting the offer. The case in point on this was Ian Desmond having to accept a one year $8 million contract from the Texas Rangers. Seeing the issues with these three players, it is increasingly more likely that players will accept qualifying offers this offseason.
It is exactly why the Mets cannot offer Neil Walker the qualifying offer.
Under normal circumstances offering Walker a qualifying offer would be seen as a given. Walker was coming off a career year at both the plate and in the field. He matched his career high in homers and set a career high in slugging percentage. He even began hitting well from the right side almost doubling his career home run total as a right-handed batter. In the field, Walker posted his best ever UZR (by a long shot) and his best ever DRS. Overall, Walker was at his absolute best in every part of the game in the 2016 season. Given the very weak free agent market, he was definitively going to be the best second baseman on the market, and he was set to cash-in.
He’s not now. During this career best season, Walker had periods where he had numbness in his feet related to a herniated disc. Even with the numbness, Walker was hitting .389/.450/.667 with six homers and 10 RBI in 18 August games. He was having his best month of the season while he was trying to help the Mets rally back to the postseason. Despite having his best stretch all season long and the Mets needing his bat in the lineup and glove on the field, Walker had to have season ending back surgery. At the time, it was seen as a critical blow to not just the Mets postseason chances, but also to Walker’s future earnings in free agency.
The main issue with Walker is you don’t know what he is going to be next season. Will the microdiscectomy surgery decrease his mobility in the field? Will the surgery sap him of some of his power at the plate? Will he full recover and return to the numbers he was at during the 2016 season? We do not know the answer to any of these questions. However, with Walker entering his age 31 season, there should be some expectation of decline even without the back surgery.
Now, these questions shouldn’t preclude the Mets from attempting to bring Walker back next season. He should be a better option at second base next year than Gavin Cecchini, Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, or T.J. Rivera. However, he is not $16 million better than those options. That $16 million matters in an offseason where players like Jacob deGrom are entering their arbitration years, the Mets picking up the $13 million option on Jay Bruce, and Yoenis Cespedes likely to be a free agent after presumably opting out of his contract. If Walker was to accept the qualifying offer, which is very likely at this point, it could mean the end of Cespedes in a Mets uniform.
As we already know, the Mets have a number of players in place who can step up and take over the second base position should Walker leave in free agency. However, as we already know, the Mets cannot replace Cespedes’ bat in the lineup. When the risk is Cespedes, and you really don’t know what Walker can contribute next season, it’s really not much of a debate. The Mets cannot make a qualifying offer to Walker.
Of with this being a bad idea, we know that could only mean one thing. The Mets are going to absolutely extend Walker a qualifying offer today.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online