Musings
When I was younger, one of the few things that could get me up early on a Sunday morning was The Sports Reporters. It was a collection of the best sports reporters across the country (mostly the northeast) hosted by a giant in the industry, Dick Schaap. However, over the years, my interest has waned, and it was no longer appointment viewing. Apparently, many feel the same way as Sports Illustrated has reported the show will be cancelled in May.
By sheer coincidence, I caught a piece of it Sunday. Watching the show, I began to understand why it is being cancelled.
On the panel were Mike Lupica, who took over hosting duties after the untimely death of John Saunders, and Mitch Albom. If you were to go back 25 years ago, it is a near certainty that Lupica and Albom were going to be on the panel. In essence, this show has not only had the same format, but it has had the same voices on the show for it’s entire run. Considering that Lupica had his mid-day ESPN Radio show cancelled a couple of years ago, no one was that interested in what they had to say anymore.
Then there is Albom who once lauded Miguel Cabrera winning the AL MVP Award over Mike Trout as a victory against sabermetrics saying, “We need to slow down the shoveling of raw data into the “what can we come up with next?” machine. It is actually creating a divide between those who like to watch the game of baseball and those who want to reduce it to binary code.” (SB Nation).
It’s odd seeing Lupica and Albom becoming irrelevant in terms of both ratings and opinions. Twenty-five years or so ago, they were among the best read in the industry. Their opinions mattered, and in an age before the internet made their opinions easily attainable, this was the best way to hear their voice, to learn. Unfortunately, not only are they still stuck in the mindset they have roughly a quarter of a century ago, but people can look elsewhere.
The elsewhere are writers not brought on to participate in the Sports Reports. You don’t see a Mike Vaccaro or a Jonah Keri on the show. Chances are if there is a younger or fresher voice, it is a regurgitation of an ESPN personality that is a contributor to another show like Around the Horn. In some ways, shows like Around the Horn killed the Sports Reporters. Instead of intelligent debate and discussion, we got soundbites, writers fighting for attention, and writers looking to “win” rather than provide thoughtful analysis. Instead of writers, they could have invited analysts with sufficient experience in the field and used it as a way to boost ratings at the very least. Furthermore, today, when the demand for sports is soaring high, even careers like sports performance analyst career are gaining the attention they deserve.
No matter what the issue, the time for Sports Reporters has passed. It has passed because the show failed to bring on newer voices to counter-balance the voices of the Lupicas and the Alboms. It has passed because of the focus of “debate shows” like Around the Horn or First Take. It has passed because it has partially become an ESPN vehicle instead of a show featuring sports writers across the country. It has passed because each and every single one of these writers have become more and more accessible. It has passed, well, because its time has passed.
So today, like most Sundays over the past couple of years, I’m going to go make breakfast with my son, and go about my day. Most likely, I’m not going to turn on the Sports Reporters even though, admittedly, I am now more cognizant of it. At some point before May, I may even grow to feel nostalgic about it. Not today however . . . that time has passed.
Due to Lucas Duda‘s broken back and Sandy Alderson believing Eric Campbell was the best possible option for the 25th man on the Opening Day roster, the Mets were forced to go out and acquire James Loney for $1 from the San Diego Padres.
Look, there are plenty of jokes you can make about the Mets getting ripped off in the deal. You can also point out to how Loney was a terrible hitter who not only couldn’t hit for power, but he also couldn’t draw a walk. In the field, you could crack jokes about how dead people are able to stretch more than Loney was able to at first base.
Behind these jokes, the simple fact was Loney was better than what the Mets had at the time. Loney was the end result of poor planning by this Mets organization. Lost in all of that was Loney was actually good for a stretch of time. From June to July, Loney was a .288/.343/.451 hitter. While it wasn’t the production you may look for out of first base, he was still a solid major league hitter. And he was a solid major league hitter at a time when Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera were mired in deep slumps. Without Loney’s bat, it is quite possible the Mets would have been further under .500 than they would have been.
There were even some clutch hits along the way like his 100th career home run that helped the Mets beat the Miami Marlins:
The main issue with Loney was he was playing above his head, and he fooled everyone into thinking he was going to keep up this level of production. He certainly convinced a Mets front office who was once again either unwilling or ill-prepared to handle the first base situation at the trade deadline.
In the end, Loney showed the Mets his best ability was his availability. That speaks volume when you consider the entire Mets Opening Day infield spent at least one stint on the disabled list. Heck, even the primary backup, Wilmer Flores, had a season ending injury that required offseason surgery.
Overall, it was not his fault he was not the hitter the Mets needed him to be. Ultimately, Loney was just Loney. It was good enough to help the Mets capture the top Wild Card spot, but ultimately, it was not enough for the Mets to beat Madison Bumgarner in the Wild Card game.
Loney has now signed a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers thereby putting an end to the possibility of his returning to the Mets. It’s likely he won’t have a Kelly Johnson type return either. The chapter in Mets history is closed, and generally speaking, the Mets were better off for him being a part of it. And no, it’s not a stretch to say that.
While debating who should be the Mets lead-off hitter, it should be noted the Mets haven’t always gone the traditional route. In fact, over the team’s 55 year history, they have gone in a number of directions. Can you name all of the players who have hit lead-off on Opening Day for the Mets? Good luck!
Richie Ashburn Larry Burright Dick Smith Billy Cowan Cleon Jones Don Bosch Bud Harrelson Tommie Agee Wayne Garrett Gene Clines Lee Mazzilli Lenny Randle Frank Taveras Mookie Wilson Wally Backman Lenny Dykstra Gregg Jefferies Vince Coleman Jose Vizcaino Brett Butler Lance Johnson Brian McRae Rickey Henderson Benny Agbayani Roger Cedeno Kazuo Matsui Jose Reyes Alex Cora Andres Torres Collin Cowgill Eric Young Curtis Granderson
In 2015, despite Terry Collins experimenting all spring long with Juan Lagares in the lead-off spot, come Opening Day, the Mets had installed Curtis Granderson in the lead-off spot. The move proved to be a stroke of genius as Granderson had his best season in four seasons hitting .259/.364/.457 with 26 homers and 70 RBI. For many points of that season, he was seemingly the only professional hitter barely keeping the offense afloat. When the reinforcements came, the Mets took over the division and went all the way to the World Series.
Unfortunately, Granderson did not have the same success in 2016. Despite hitting an impressive 30 homers, he only hit .237/.335/.464. He struggled most of the year, and by August, Collins removed him from the lead-off spot. The move was due to a number of different issues facing the Mets. First and foremost, Granderson was struggling in the role. Second, with the injuries and poor performances, the Mets needed Granderson’s power in the middle of the lineup. Third, and perhaps the biggest reason of all, Jose Reyes had rejoined the team, and Collins made the decision to put the best lead-off hitter in Mets history at the top of the lineup.
With Spring Training about a month away, and the Mets everyday and primary backups set in stone, the question is who bats lead-off in 2017? With the Mets not having a clear-cut option, the Mets may have to either recycle options, or they will have to think outside-the-box:
Curtis Granderson
On a positive note, Granderson has been a successful lead-off hitter in his career, and his presence at the top of the order in 2015 was one of the factors why the Mets were able to not only win the division, but also go the World Series. Looking deeper into his 2016 numbers, there are some promising signs he could handle the lead-off spot.
As the first batter of the game, Granderson hit .319/.395/.667 with seven homers. When he lead-off an inning, he hit .270/.355/.582 with 16 homers. Now, this is not the Granderson we remember from the 2016 season because he did not fare well in his subsequent at-bats. In fact, Granderson hit .218/.317/.433 as the team’s lead-off hitter. Another factor was he thrived hitting behind Yoenis Cespedes. When hitting cleanup, Granderson hit .321/.440/.605 with six homers and 18 RBI in the limited sample size of 23 games.
Jose Reyes
At one point in his career, Reyes was the prototypical lead-off hitter. He could get on base, steal bases, take the extra base, and he could hit for some power. He was a bundle of energy that seemed to get both the fans and his team going. He was a threat from the moment he stepped in the batter’s box until the moment he walked back to the dugout. While Reyes shows some glimpses, he is no longer that player.
After his first season playing on the punishing Rogers Centre turf, Reyes just hasn’t been the same player. Over the past three seasons, including his stint with the Mets last year, Reyes is a .279/.321/.400 hitter. In some respects, Reyes is a much smarter base stealer, much like Rickey Henderson at the end of his career, as he gets caught less frequently, he also has fewer attempts. It seems that the things he was elite at are now things he is now just good at doing. This all works against Reyes being an effective lead-off hitter, and that is before we account for his recent pronounced splits against right-handed and left-handed pitching. At this point in his career, Reyes mauls left-handed pitching, but he is really no better against right-handed pitching than Wilmer Flores.
Despite the aforementioned issues, the biggest hurdle in Reyes’ way from becoming the Mets lead-off hitter is Reyes is not an everyday player. Reyes is here mostly to serve as a back-up to David Wright due to his spinal stenosis issues. Reyes will also serve as a back-up middle infielder and possibly as a back-up outfielder. While you can make the argument, he should lead-off in games he plays, he is not going to play everyday meaning the Mets need an everyday option.
David Wright
This is where we start going outside the box as Wright has never hit lead-off in his career. However, looking at the numbers and seeing the type of player Wright has seemingly become, his hitting lead-off actually makes sense.
Even with all the issues Wright faced in 2016, the one thing he showed he was still capable of doing was getting on base. In the limited sample size that was his 37 games last year, Wright had a .350 OBP. If he was to have played the full season, his .350 OBP would have been second best on the team to Cespedes. Over the past two injury plagued seasons, Wright has played 75 games, and he has had a .365 OBP over that stretch. Again with the caveat that Wright only played in very few games over that stretch, his .365 OBP is a team best.
Another factor in his favor for him leading off is his taking a lot of pitches in his at-bats. Again, this comes with the caveat that he only played in 37 games, but Wright saw the most pitches per plate appearance than any other Met. It should be noted, Granderson was second on the team. With Wright going deep into the count, he is not only making a pitcher throw more pitches, he is also allowing his team to see what the pitcher has on that particular day.
While in many respects, Wright is what you want in a lead-off hitter, it needs to be noted time and again with him that you cannot depend on him. No one knows how many games he can play. However, this can be an argument to hit him lead-off. Presumably, on the days he cannot play, or if he was to miss a number of games due to injury, Reyes is likely to take his spot at third base. Given Collins’ propensity to hit Reyes lead-off, Reyes could move into Wright’s spot in the lineup and not disturb the rest of the team.
Michael Conforto
Again, this is well outside the box, but unlike Wright the decision to move him to the lead-off spot has nothing to do with his skill set. Rather, the concept behind hitting Conforto lead-off is to give him a spot in the order where he is going to see some quality pitches.
Whether it was pitcher’s adapting to him, his wrist injury, or Collin’s icing him on the bench, Conforto did not have a good 2016 season by any measure. In 109 games, he hit .220/.310/.414 while striking out in 25.5% of his plate appearances. If you take out his terrific April, the numbers look even worse. Over the course of 88 games (58 starts), Conforto hit .174/.267/.330 with only eight homers and 24 RBI.
And yet, we know how good he can be. In his rookie season, a year removed from college and having never played a game in AAA, he hit .270/.335/.506 with nine homers and 26 RBI in 56 games. In April of last year, he hit .365/.442/.676 with four homers and 18 RBI. When he was demoted to AAA the second time, he hit .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI. Long story short, this kid knows how to hit. The Mets just need to find a good place for him in the lineup to help further his development.
Presumably, his presence at the top of the lineup with a professional hitter like Asdrubal Cabrera hitting behind him would allow Conforto to see better pitches at the plate. Theoretically, this could allow him to wait for his pitch and drive it somewhere. Another factor to consider is Conforto has some speed on the bases. While he is not going to steal 30 bases for you, he does have the ability to go from first to third or score from second.
Ultimately, one of the most important things the Mets have to do this season is to further the development of Conforto. His hitting lead-off may further that.
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera is yet another unconventional choice. However, Cabrera has already shown the Mets he is a professional hitter that can be slotted any place in the lineup. No matter where Cabrera hits in the lineup, he has shown the ability to give the Mets a good at-bat.
With Cabrera, there are as many positives as there are red flags in making him the lead-off hitter. For his career, he has a .329 OBP. While he did better that with a .336 OBP last season, you would prefer a higher OBP from the lead-off spot. With his knee injury last season, there is a real question over how much speed he still has on the basepaths. In the limited time he has been a lead-off hitter in his career, he has only posted a 95 OPS+.
And yet, despite these and other concerns you may have about Cabrera in the lead-off spot, the fact remains that Cabrera is a solid hitter. In fact, he could be the Mets player outside of Cespedes that you have the most confidence in heading into the 2017 season. With that in mind, wouldn’t he be the guy you want to give the most number of at-bats to during the 2017 season? Arguably, the answer to that question is yes.
Overall, there is a real debate to be had as to who should hit lead-off for the Mets in 2017. Based upon what we saw in 2016, it is possible the player who was the Opening Day lead-off hitter will not last the full season in that spot in the order. With that in mind, the Mets should not be afraid to give any other of their players a chance to hit lead-off.
At this point, no one should expect anything from David Wright in 2017. He has been limited by the spinal stenosis. He’s going to be further limited by the cervical fusion. He’s going to be limited by the sheer fact that 34 year old players tend to at least be on the beginning of the downside of their careers. Anything, and I mean anything they get from him in 2017 is gravy.
With that said, there are certain things we might be able to see out of Wright during the 2017 season.
For starters, we know that he can still get on base. In fact, he’s still one of the best Mets in terms of his ability to get on base. Over the past two seasons, even with the spinal stenosis, Wright has a .365 OBP. While anything Wright does comes with the caveat he has only played limited playing time, his .365 OBP ranks the best on the Mets over the past two seasons.
We also know Wright can make solid contact. According to Statcast, Wright led all major league batters with “barrels” during the 2016 season. A barrel is defined as “a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees.” With Wright’s ability to barrel a ball effectively, nearly one-half of his 31 hits went for extra bases.
Fortunately, even with his health issues, Wright can still catch up to a good fastball. As we saw in the 2015 World Series, he was able to hit the late Yordano Ventura‘s 96 MPH fastball, which was up in the zone, for a home run. Wright’s ability to not only catch up to the pitch, but also hit it for a home run shows he can change his approach depending on the type of pitcher on the mound.
Simply put, Wright still knows how to hit. Even with his health issues and his aging, Wright is still an effective hitter that can hit anywhere in the lineup. And for as long as Wright remains an effective hitter, he is going to be an asset to this team going forward.
Unfortunately, Wright is also declining in the field. While it is true that single season, especially partial season stats, should not be over-analyzed, Wright’s defensive numbers should not be ignored. Over his past two injury riddled seasons, Wright has averaged a -4.4 UZR with a -10 DRS. Using UZR/150, which estimates what a player’s UZR would be at a certain position over 150 games, Wright’s average UZR/150 over the past two seasons would be -19.5, which would rate among the worse in the major leagues.
This means when the Mets have the lead late in games, the team should probably lift him late in games for defense for either Jose Reyes or Wilmer Flores. This would also have the added benefit of saving him some wear and tear on his body over the course of a full season.
The overriding issue with Wright is he is going to try to do too much out there. There was at least one known incident last year where Wright was not forthright with his manager about his ability to play. Once Terry Collins was tipped off by the training staff of Wright’s physical struggles, he sat him despite Wright’s wanting to play.
More than Wright wanting to play when he shouldn’t, he is trying too hard at times during the games. In the second game of the season, Wright attempted two stolen bases against Salvador Perez of all people. It is important to note these stolen base attempts came on the heels of a complete overreaction by almost everyone to Wright’s going hitless with two strikeouts on Opening Day. Wright’s stolen base attempts that day could be construed as him trying to prove everyone he was still capable of being the David Wright of old. To be fair, it could have been Wright showing his veteran savvy by trying to attempt stolen bases off his former teammate Chris Young, who is notoriously slow to the plate.
When trying to project what Wright can contribute in 2017, the safest bet when it comes to Wright is he is going to miss a number of games next year. The hope is the Mets can manage his condition and prevent him from having to go on the disabled list. Another hope is that if he winds up on the disabled list, it is due to a flare up of one of his conditions as opposed to a worsening of his back or neck. At this point, we don’t know if that is going to happen.
And that is the overriding theme of Wright’s 2017 season. We have no idea what is going to happen. While there is room for optimism, it is skeptical optimism. On the field he has shown he can play when he can play, but he hasn’t played more than 38 games in a season with his condition. Hopefully, he will be able to play in more than 38 games. Hopefully, when he does play, he can be as productive as his past stats indicate.
More than any of that, the hope is he can get a World Series ring before he retires. He’s almost literally given everything he can give to the Mets. With that, he deserves a ring. Hopefully, the Mets will surround him with a team that can win. If they do, the hope is he can contribute to that win.
Back in 2008, Bill James, the man who was at the forefront of the revolution of the use of advanced statistics in Major League Baseball, said in a 60 Minutes interview that David Wright would be a top pick on his “dream team.”
At that time, Wright was coming off a 30/30 season that also saw him win his first Gold Glove. In total, Wright hit .325/.416/.546 with 42 doubles, one triple, 30 homers, and 107 RBI. He posted an astonishingly high 8.3 WAR, which serves not just as a career best, but also as the highest WAR a Mets position player has ever posted. Wright was just 24 years old, and he seemed well on his way to Cooperstown.
A lot has happened over the past decade. In 2009, the Mets moved into Citi Field. Under its original configuration with the high outfield walls and the needlessly deep right-center field, the ballpark was an affront to what exactly made Wright a great hitter. After that were two injury plagued seasons that served as a harbinger of things to come.
In 2011, Wright spent over two months on the disabled list with a stress fracture in his lower back. In 2013, Wright saw an All Star season derailed as he missed 45 games due to a right hamstring strain.
The next time Wright would suffer a right hamstring strain was on April 14, 2015. Initially, everyone thought Wright would bounce back and help lead the team to their first postseason appearance in almost a decade. It didn’t turn out that way. Wright’s recovery from the hamstring strain was taking longer than expected leading to subsequent examinations. Those examinations revealed Wright was suffering from spinal stenosis, a condition that will forever limit him.
Still, there was hope for Wright. After missing 115 games, he would return to the Mets, and in his first at-bat, he would hit a home run. As the Mets pushed towards the postseason, Wright hit a very respectable .277/.381/.437 with four homers and 13 RBI in 30 games. While you knew he was going to be limited due to the spinal stenosis, there was at least some evidence that Wright could be a productive player.
Those hopes were fortified early in the 2016 season. Through 24 games, Wright was hitting .258/.405/.472 with four homers and eight RBI. While he couldn’t play each and every game, and while there were some holes in his game, he was putting up good numbers. From there, Wright’s season began to fall apart. Over the next 13 games, he hit .167/.231/.375 while striking out 42.3% of the time.
Wright had a new injury this time. He had a herniated cervical disc requiring him to undergo season ending surgery. This forced the Mets to move on from him and eventually sign Jose Reyes to be the team’s everyday third baseman.
Wright was gone, but he wasn’t forgotten. There were the rehabilitation updates. The Reyes signing sparked the nostalgia of seeing the two players celebrating the team clinching the NL East back in 2006. Then Wright was able to return to Citi Field to watch the games from the bullpen. However, he was not able to even come close to stepping foot on the field. With that, Wright was was never overlooked or forgotten.
It is not forgotten that he was one of the top players in the game, possibly the best player in the game. However, times are changed, and to a certain extent no one can reasonably expect anything from him. We were reminded of that again on Sunday night.
During the offseason, MLB Network runs down the Top 10 players at each position. Various analysts contribute their opinions of who should be in that Top 10. The final ranking is then determined by “The Shredder.” Here were the list of third baseman considered for the 2017 season:
Wright wasn’t even in consideration, nor should he have been. Wright can no longer be in the discussion for anything until we see him step foot on the baseball field again. Based upon reports on his rehabilitation, that should happen during Spring Training. That’s great news for Mets fans everywhere. Still, those Spring Training games will do little to alleviate the now heightened concerns Wright can withstand the rigors of a 162 game schedule. Based upon his start to last season, even Wright starting the season off well will do little in terms of the Mets ability to count on Wright producing over the course of the season.
Overall, no matter what Wright does, it will do nothing to elevate his diminished status in the game.
The Hall of Fame inducted Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez in what should be the first of many Hall of Fame classes we see without a Mets player being inducted. The Mets had to wait 23 years between the elections of Tom Seaver and Mike Piazza. Depending on which hat Carlos Beltran selects when he is likely inducted into the Hall of Fame, the Mets may be waiting even longer than that. How long the Mets wait may depend on the Hall of Fame worthiness of one of the players currently on the Mets roster. Here are some players with a chance to be Hall of Famers one day:
#1 David Wright
Career Stats: .296/.376/.491, 949 R, 1,777 H, 390 2B, 26 3B, 242 HR, 970 RBI, 196 SB
Awards: 7X All-Star, 2X Gold Glove, 2X Silver Slugger
Advanced Stats: 49.9 WAR, 133 OPS+, 133 wRC+
Hall of Fame Metrics: 40.0 WAR7, 45.0 JAWS
The Case For: With his spinal stenosis, Wright has been that rare breed of player that not only spends his whole career with one team, but also winds up owning almost all of a team’s offensive records. At this point in time, he is the career leader in runs, hits, doubles, and RBI. He is only 10 behind Darryl Strawberry for the team home run lead. It is rare that with a franchise in as existence as long as the Mets that the team’s best ever offensive player is not inducted into the Hall of Fame.
Superlatives aside, there is a statistical foundation for Wright’s induction. His 133 OPS+ would be the sixth best by a Hall of Fame third baseman putting him ahead of the likes of Wade Boggs and Ron Santo. His 133 wRC+ would be the third best among third base Hall of Famers with him trailing just Mike Schmidt, Eddie Mathews, and Home Run Baker. His OBP would be the fifth best among Hall of Fame third baseman putting him ahead of the likes of George Brett. His slugging would be third among Hall of Fame third baseman putting him ahead of players like Brooks Robinson.
No matter how you look at it, Wright has been a top five to top ten third baseman all-time. As seen with his Gold Gloves, he is one of the more complete players we have ever seen at the position.
The Case Against: Due in large part of the spinal stenosis, Wright’s peak was not as high as it would be for a traditional Hall of Famer. In fact his WAR, WAR7, and JAWS trail the 67.5/42.7/55.1 an average Hall of Fame third baseman has accumulated in their career. In fact, Wright trails Robin Ventura in WAR and JAWS, and Ventura didn’t garner the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot. Overall, while you can say that Wright at his peak was one of the best third baseman ever, his peak did not last long, and he become too injury prone to put together a great career.
Verdict: Fortunately for Wright, he still has time to put up some more numbers to help bolster his Hall of Fame chances. However, with his spinal stenosis and now cervical fusion, it is hard to imagine him putting up positive WAR seasons that will move the meter enough to classify him as a Hall of Famer.
#2 Yoenis Cespedes
Career Stats: .272/.325/.494, 406 R, 743 H, 149 2B, 22 3B, 137 HR, 453 RBI, 40 SB
Awards: 2X All-Star, 1X Gold Glove, 1X Silver Slugger
Advanced Stats: 18.7 WAR, 124 OPS+, 123 wRC+
Hall of Fame Metrics: 18.7 WAR7, 18.7 JAWS
The Case For: Unlike Wright, who is winding down is career, Cespedes, 31, seems to have quality years ahead of him. The belief in the possibility of becoming a Hall of Famer started on August 1, 2015, which is the first time he set foot in the batter’s box as a member of the New York Mets. Cespedes had the type of finish to the 2015 season people will talk about for years to come. In the final 57 games of the season, Cespedes hit 17 homers and 44 RBI. The Mets went from being three games over .500 and two games out of the division to finishing the season on a 37-22 run and winning the division by seven games. In his Mets career, the Mets are 110-79 with him in the lineup, and a game under .500 when he is not. Simply put, Cespedes is a difference maker.
He’s also a completely different player. From 2012 – 2014, Cespedes was a .263/.316/.464 hitter who averaged 24 homers and 87 RBI. Since coming to the Mets, Cespedes is a .282/.348/.554 hitter who has a 162 game average of 42 homers and 119 RBI. Before becoming a Met, he averaged 3.1 WAR per season. In 2015, his first truly great season, he posted a 6.3 WAR. Last season, in part due to his injuries and his playing out of position, he regressed back to a 2.9 WAR. With him returning to left field, where he is a Gold Glover, he should return to being a player who can post six WAR seasons. If so, Cespedes has a shot of clearing the 65.1 WAR, 41.5 WAR7, and 53.3 JAWS an average Hall of Fame left fielder has accumulated.
The Case Against: Cespedes is already 31 years old, and to ask him to put forth five more MVP level type seasons is unrealistic. The unfortunate truth is Cespedes may have gotten too late a start to his career due to his being born in Cuba, played at a horrendous ballpark in O.co Stadium for a player of his skill set too long, and he became a much improved hitter too late in his career.
Verdict: Unfortunately, Cespedes didn’t do enough early in his career, and it is not likely he’s going to be a truly great player into his mid to late 30s. Overall, is going to go down as a beloved Met, but much like Keith Hernandez, he is going to fall short.
#3 Noah Syndergaard
Career Stats: 23-16, 2.89 ERA, 55 G, 54 GS, 333.2 IP, 384 K, 1.103 WHIP, 10.4 K/9
Awards: 1X All Star
Advanced Stats: 137 ERA+, 2.72 FIP, 7.4 WAR
The Case For: In some sense, Syndergaard represents the trio that includes him, Matt Harvey, and Jacob deGrom. The reason why Syndergaard was selected was he is the youngest, has a fastball that gets over 100 MPH, and he is the only one without any injuries in his young career. Naturally, like with any young pitcher, health is going to be the key.
Last season, we saw Syndergaard scratch the surface of what he can be as a starter. He not only posts high strikeout numbers, but he generally induces weak contact. In fact, his 0.5 HR/9 was the best mark in the major leagues last year. Not so coincidentally, so was his 2.29 FIP. To cap off the season, Syndergaard pitched in a do-or-die Wild Card Game against Madison Bumgarner, who is the best big game pitcher we have in baseball. Syndergaard not only matched him scoreless inning for scoreless inning, he also out-pitched Bumgarner for those seven innings.
Syndergaard has slowly been moving from one of the most talented pitchers in the game to one of the best pitchers in the game. At 23, we can expect him to have many great seasons, and quite possibly multiple Cy Young awards. Really, at this point in his career, anything is possible.
The Case Against: That’s the problem with anything being possible. At one point in time Dwight Gooden was a no-doubt Hall of Famer. In fact, Gooden’s 1985 season was one of the greatest regular seasons a starting pitcher has ever had. However, as we know Gooden never made the Hall of Fame. Yes, much of that had to do with Gooden’s drug problems, but it should also be noted Gooden dealt with arm injuries as well. He probably threw too many innings at an early age, and he would eventually needed shoulder surgery. This as much as anything had to do with Gooden’s career falling apart.
Besides Gooden, you can name any number of pitchers who went from great to broken. That’s the nature of pitching.
Verdict: Syndergaard not only has the talent, but he also has the drive to be truly great. As long as luck holds out, and he listens to his body, like he did last year, Syndergaard should remain healthy putting him in good position to make a run at the Hall of Fame.
Of course, the Mets could use Bryce Harper. Any team could as Harper is one of the best players in the game. With that said, the Mets could use Harper because he is a player willing to do this:
Matt Wieters/Greg Holland > Team Store! #NatsNatsNatswoooooo https://t.co/aXPpp5qZLR
— Bryce Harper (@bryceharper3) January 18, 2017
Naturally, if you are a Nationals player or fan, you are left a little frustrated by this offseason. It seems like every player went to another team.
This offseason alone free agents like Yoenis Cespedes, Kenley Jansen, . On top of that, they were unable to secured trades for Chris Sale, Andrew McCutchen, and Charlie Blackmon leading to them sending a big haul of prospects to the White Sox for Adam Eaton. By the way, in that deal, the Nationals were not able to get the White Sox to include David Robertson.
What makes this all the more frustrating is this comes of a similar experience for the Nationals last season, which was capped off with Brandon Phillips refusing to waive his no trade clause.
Even with the Eaton acquisition, the Nationals still have two holes due to both Mark Melancon and Wilson Ramos departing in free agency. This has led to the Nationals pursuit of both Matt Wieters, even with the Derek Norris trade, and Greg Holland. Arguably, both players could fill the voids in the Nationals roster.
However, the team is stuck in a standstill for budgetary reasons, and they are armed with excuses. This has led to their best player calling them out publicly.
The Nationals situation is not too different from the Mets situation. This Mets team has failed to completely address the holes on their roster. Even more aggravating is the Mets once again citing budgetary reasons as their excuse for not going out and signing even a mid-tier relief pitcher like Brad Ziegler. Instead, the Mets were content to let him go to a a team in their division.
This pattern of (spending) behavior by the Mets has been maddening since Sandy Alderson took over as General Manager after the conclusion of the 2010 season. Now, this isn’t Alderson’s fault per se. It is more on the Wilpons and how they have chosen to spend their money, and their lies about restrictions on payroll. Sometimes, you want a player to speak out and scream they don’t want another season with an Eric Campbell on the bench or the team having to trade for bad relievers like Alex Torres on the eve of Opening Day because you didn’t have the money to spend on quality arms.
With the Mets not adding arms this offseason, you want someone to scream.
Now, admittedly, Harper can be a bit much. We saw that with his asking where his ring was when the Nationals signed Max Scherzer. Even with that said, wouldn’t it be better for the Mets to have a player that would keep them accountable? Wouldn’t it be better if the Mets felt like they needed to aggressively attack the window in the offseason rather than trading away minor league arms with upside for Kelly Johnson when the Mets easily could have signed him in the offseason?
For me, the answer is yes especially when you consider how close Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard are to being split up due to their respective free agencies on the horizon.
Sometimes deals were not a good idea at their inception. At other times, deals don’t just work out as planned. Then there was Alejandro De Aza‘s tenure with the New York Mets.
Back when De Aza signed with the Mets, he was supposed to be the left-handed platoon option to go along with Juan Lagares in center field. It was an extremely unpopular signing at the time beacause it was a clear indication the Mets were not going to sign Yoenis Cespedes. Except the Mets, due to a combination of sheer luck and the depth of top end outfielders on the market, did actually re-sign Cespedes.
Just like that De Aza went from the platoon partner getting the bulk of the at-bats to being the team’s fifth outfielder. Considering the talent level ahead of him, he seemed like he was going to be the team’s seldom used fifth outfielder. Anyone would struggle under those circumstances, and De Aza did.
In the beginning of July, he was only batting .158 with just five extra base hits. Keep in mind, both of those extra base hits came in the same game. Essentially, the irregular to lack of playing time was wrecking havoc with his ability to produce, and it was affecting him mentally. It got to the point where Terry Collins began to question his work ethic.
With all that in mind, De Aza deserves a lot of credit. De Aza went on a tear in July hitting .375/.487/.531 in 21 games and six games started. The tear came at the right time too because it was a Mets team seemingly falling apart. Lagares had a thumb issue. Cespedes would deal with a quad injury. Both Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto were struggling as well. In fact, the entire Mets offense including Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera was struggling. The Mets needed this boost from him, and they go it.
De Aza would also step up as the Mets were making a push for the Wild Card. In a crucial late August series against the Cardinals, with Seth Lugo making his second ever major league start, De Aza came up huge not only robbing Matt Carpenter of a home run in the first at-bat in the bottom of the first, but also by hitting his own three run home run. It was all part of how De Aza came up big when the Mets needed in most. In fact, over the final month of the season, he would hit .265/.366/.353 in 25 games.
Overall, De Aza’s tenure with the Mets was a disappointing one with all involved. However, he made significant contributions to the Mets when they needed them most. That should never be overlooked even if ultimately he was usually the outfielder overlooked when Collins was filling out the lineup card.
De Aza’s struggles are a large reason why he was only able to muster a minor league deal with the Oakland Athletics. With that said, he is in a much better situation than he was in 2016. This should allow him to return to being the player he never really got the chance to be with the Mets. Hopefully, he gets back to that point.
Back in 2013, Mets fans were shocked and depressed when Matt Harvey missed the remainder of the regular season with a torn UCL. Initially, it seemed Harvey did not want the surgery, but eventually he agreed to have the surgery. Fortunately for Harvey, he went through the rehabilitation process with no setbacks, and he became an important part of a 2015 rotation that went all the way to the World Series.
While rehabilitating, he worked alongside former Mets starter Jeremy Hefner. In 2012 and 2013, Hefner had performed better than expected with the Mets, and he finally seemed to carve out some type of a role in the organization. The team even tendered him a contract while he was rehabbing from his own Tommy John surgery. However, disaster struck, and Hefner would need another Tommy John surgery. He would miss all of the 2014 and 2015 seasons. The Mets would non-tender him, and he would have to agree to a minor league contract with the St. Louis Cardinals. Now, with another arm injury, he has since retired.
These are just two of the countless stories we have seen with the Mets when it comes to Tommy John surgery. Recently, we have heard terrific stories about how Jacob deGrom learned how to throw the change-up from Johan Santana while deGrom was rehabiliting from his own Tommy John surgery. It was a great story, and it was something that forever changed the trajectory of deGrom’s career. There have been other Mets who have had their career trajectories change due to the surgery.
At one point in his career, Bobby Parnell was deemed the closer of the future. In 2013, he seemed to take over the role when he recorded 22 saves. In 2014, he would be named the Opening Day closer. It lasted all of one inning as Parnell was shut down and had Tommy John surgery. He tried to come back in 2015, but he did not have the same velocity, and he did not have his command. The Mets showed no interest in re-signing him leading to Parnell signing a minor league deal with the Tigers. After six major league appearances that saw him post a 6.75 ERA, Parnell was released in August.
Of course, the biggest name with the Mets to have issues post-Tommy John surgery was Zack Wheeler. Right before the 2015 season was set to begin, Wheeler was diagnosed with a torn UCL. He would have the surgery, and he would have a number of set-backs. He was initially slated to be a part of the Mets starting rotation around the 2016 All Star break. Instead, he would have a number of setbacks, and eventually, the Mets would shut him down for the season. In total, he threw one inning for St. Lucie in a rehab appearance. Now, the Mets are discussing whether they should move him to the bullpen for at least the start of the season.
Hefner, Parnell, and Wheeler show exactly why the experiment Seth Maness is undergoing is so important to the game of baseball.
For the past four seasons, Maness has been an effective reliever for the St. Louis Cardinals. Because of his own torn UCL, Maness would make his last appearance on August 13th, and it was assumed he would be headed for Tommy John surgery like so many other people have with the same injury. He didn’t.
Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Dispatch reports Maness underwent a surgery called “primary repair” which is ” a repair and buttressing of the existing ligament at the bone, not Tommy John’s reconstruction of the ligament.” Like Tommy John once was, Maness is now a trailblazer that may have the name of a surgery attached to him. The physician that performed the surgery, Dr. George Paletta, spoke about the procedure saying:
In select cases of UCL tears, with this technique, they have the real potential to not miss the next year. This is potentially a huge stride forward in three ways. First, early results show a high success rate. Second, a return to play is cut by 40 percent. That’s a huge factor. We are able to accelerate the return-to-throwing (rehab) program for the athletes. With this technique at the end of 2016 we have a pitcher who is ready to pitch in games by opening day.
And the third way, as a consequence of this, in the right setting, one would feel more confident moving to surgery early on.
Believe it or not, Maness is a week away from being able to take the mound after a little more than seven months after the surgery. It is expected the free agent reliever will be ready to pitch on Opening Day. Once he takes the mound, there is going to be a lot of interest in his performance.
Dr. Jeffrey Dugas, another surgeon who performs this surgery and the managing partner at the Andrews Sports Medicine & Orthopedic Center in Birmingham, AL noted there is now a lot of interest in how Maness performs post-surgery:
People are watching this and it’s an interesting thing for all of us. There is a lot that we need to learn from Seth, a lot that we need to learn from all of the guys (who have had it). We need the data. There are still so many hurdles to go over, but we’re excited to watch what is going to happen because of what is possible. We’re going to follow him very closely.
Therein lies the rub. We had gotten to the point with Tommy John surgery where it had felt almost routine; where we looked at pitchers like Masahiro Tanaka and wondered why he just didn’t get the surgery. The “primary repair” or Seth Maness Surgery is far from that point. However, if Maness has a strong 2017 season, and a couple of more pitcher follow his path, and have similar success stories, the treatment fo UCLs may have been revolutionized.
There may no longer see the Harveys of the world miss more than a season. We may also see an alternative route for the Hefners, Parnells, and Wheelers of the world. Ultimately, when there is at least a chance pitchers will miss less time and have an alternative surgery that may work better for them, it is a time for cautious optimism.
And with that, a middle reliever who induces a number of groundballs could have one of the most important seasons in major league history.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online