Musings
Having followed the Knicks this century, the events that transpired Thursday should have come as no surprise. This organization seems to handle everything wrong whether it was everything related to Isaiah Thomas, including but not limited to the Anuka Brown Sanders sexual harassment, how they have handled everything related to Carmelo Anthony, and how they have run the front office. Keep in mind, the one guy that showed the ability to navigate through all of this, Donnie Walsh, was first marginalized and then effectively shoved out the door.
The Charles Oakley incident is just the latest incident in what has been a series of missteps by this once proud and relevant organization.
It should now come as no surprise the Knicks have now banned Oakley from the Garden. It should first be noted Oakley did his part. Anytime you put your hands on a security guard, you have merited a lifetime ban. Depending on who you believe, Oakley may have precipitated the ejection from the arena by heckling Dolan. Oakley denies it, but who could blame him? Things have been a mess. What really stands out is how he was ejected.
Honestly, look how many people were there ready to have him ejected. They seemingly brought out each and every security guard there to remove him from the game. The Knicks made a spectacle before Oakley made a spectacle.
Let’s assume Oakley said nothing, but Dolan wanted him gone anyway due to their acrimonious relationship. Apparently, Dolan was so upset by Oakley’s mere presence at the game, he was willing to have security remove him WHILE THE GAME WAS GOING ON! He wanted him gone that badly. He didn’t care if he was bothering the view of the fans nearby. He didn’t care if he was distracting his team on the court. He wanted Oakley gone no matter who was inconvenienced or distracted.
Now, let’s assume Oakley was heckling Dolan. Why wouldn’t he? The Knicks have been ineptly run for years now. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t heckled throughout the Garden during most Knicks games. He’s certainly earned it. And you know what? If he is that thin-skinned, he needs to sit up in an owner’s suite rather than down near the court.
Alas, he’s the owner, and it’s his prerogative. Still, he has to be smarter, and he has to know this was not going to end well for anyone. Knowing what we know of Oakley, there was no way he was leaving that game. If that is the case, why not attempt to do it the right way anyway. Phil Jackson was one of his coaches with the Bulls. Former teammate Allan Houston is a member of the front office and routinely at games. For that matter, many Knicks legends and former teammates attend the games. They could have handled the situation better than Dolan did by having security surround him and escalate the situation.
Oakley is a Knicks legend and a fan favorite. He should be treated as such. He wasn’t.
This goes a long way towards explaining what has happened between the Knicks and Carmelo Anthony. The team doesn’t seem to care about how it treats its stars, or in reality, even disrupting the team’s play. The Garden seemingly picks its favorites, and those people are treated like gold and are untouchable. It’s not surprising the Garden’s favorites do not align with how the fan’s favorites are. Even less surprising is the fact that the Garden favorites have rarely, if ever, aligned with building a winning team.
We all deserve better from the Knicks. More importantly, Charles Oakley did. He’s banned for life, but we’re still stuck watching this nonsense.
On the bright side, Pitchers and Catchers report on Monday meaning we can all ignore the Knicks tomfoolery this Spring just like we have most seasons since Dolan has assumed control of the Knicks.
As we near pitchers and catchers reporting for Spring Training on Monday, it appears the Mets have few position battles. The few that exist are really over which pitchers will make the Opening Day rotation and what role they will have. Like much of what the Mets have done since he was first injured on the eve of the 2015 season, it seemingly all depends on Zack Wheeler.
For a while it seemed that he was going to start the year in the bullpen, but his recent comments to Kevin Kernan of the New York Post cast some doubt over that with him saying, “I don’t even know if I could do every other day in the bullpen. It was a struggle for me to get every fifth day. That’s because I’ve started my whole life.”
Wheeler has a point. It may not be best for either him or the Mets to put him in the bullpen. It may be best for him to start the year either in extended Spring Training to let him continue to build up his arm strength while also limiting his innings or for him to begin the year in the rotation with the Mets carefully monitoring his innings.
Ultimately, Wheeler’s role is really yet to be determined. His role may hinge on how well he pitches in Spring Training, but also how well each of these pitchers pitch this Spring:
2016 Stats: 4-2, 2.42 ERA, 8 G, 7 GS, 44.2 IP, 1.276 WHIP, 8.5 K/9
When we talk about pitching coach Dan Warthen, we continuously focus on the Warthen slider. However, one other area that needs focus is his ability to work with young pitchers to get them to get the maximum velocity out of their fastballs.
Before coming to the Mets, Gsellman possessed a low 90s fastball and sinker. Typically, he was a pitcher who pitched to contact, did not record man strikeouts, and he kept the ball on the ground. As a result, he was seen as a back of the rotation pitcher. That all changed when Gsellman was called up to the Mets.
According to Brooks Baseball, once Gsellman came to the majors, he began throwing in the mid 90s. As a result, while he was still inducing ground balls, he began striking out more batters. He went from a guy who averaged a 6.7 K/9 in the minors to one who is now striking out a batter per inning. Gsellman also showed guile in being a pitcher who began the year in Double A to being a pitcher who helped pitch the Mets into the postseason. With his newfound velocity as well as his moxy, he is now perceived as a middle of the rotation or even possibly a top of the rotation starter. If Gsellman isn’t perceived to having passed Wheeler now, he could very well put together the type of season that would make people believe he is the better pitcher.
2016 Stats: 5-2, 2.67 ERA, 17 G, 8 GS, 64.0 IP, 1.094 WHIP, 6.3 K/9
Lugo is a throwback pitcher in that he likes to work quickly, he pitches to contact, walks few batters, and he ramps up his fastball an extra gear when he needs to get out of trouble. This needs to be kept in mind for when people predict Lugo will have a regression in 2017.
Underlying the regression talk is Lugo’s 4.33 FIP. The FIP is indicative of the fact that Lugo has a relatively low strikeout rate, and he is a flyball pitcher. Put another way, advanced metrics suggest that a pitcher who allows the ball to be put in play as often as Lugo does should have a much higher ERA than what he had in 2016. At least in theory, Lugo’s stats should be more in line with the pitcher who struggled in Triple A leading him to be moved to the bullpen than the pitcher who was great in the rotation.
And yet, Lugo may actually prove to be better in 2017 than he was in 2016. By now, you must have heard his curveball has the highest spin rate ever recorded. He used his curveball last year to make some of the best hitters in baseball look foolish at the plate. A curveball with a spin rate like his will generate a number of ground balls thereby alleviating some of the fly ball concerns. And again, as Lugo showed last year, he’s a pitcher’s pitcher that knows when he needs to keep him pitch counts low to get deeper into games and when he needs to ramp it up to help himself get out of trouble.
Verdict
For many of us, it is hard to let the dream of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Wheeler pitching in the same rotation die. It was supposed to first happen in 2015, and then Wheeler got hurt. It was supposed to happen again last year, but Wheeler had too many setbacks. For many related to the Mets, fans and the organization alike, it would psychologically be better if Wheeler starts the year in the rotation so this famed grouping can pitch in the same rotation.
And yet, at this time, Gsellman seems to be the better choice for the Mets fifth starter. He is the better bet to be more durable. He has a longer future with the Mets organization. He also probably has a higher upside as a starting pitcher. For a Mets team who projects to be in a dog fight for the division, they can ill afford to give away games at any point in the season to let Wheeler pitch in the rotation before he can prove he’s capable of withstanding the rigors of being a major league pitcher again.
Therefore, Gsellman should be the fifth starter with Lugo and Wheeler rounding out the Mets bullpen.
At some point today, Jon Niese is going to hold a workout for teams interested in signing him. Niese needs to do this workout because: (1) he’s coming off knee surgery; and (2) he was terrible last year. Absolutely terrible. And yet, despite that, the Mets should be interested in re-signing him.
Let’s get the obvious reasons why the Mets shouldn’t be interested out of the way first. He’s a malcontent that would likely complain about the weather in San Diego. He always has an excuse for when he fails. He’d blame the pitch the catcher for the pitch he called. He’d blame the designer of the ballpark for the configuration of the outfield walls. He’d blame God for the wind patterns. He’d do all of that before admitting he hung a pitch that was hit into the second deck. More than any of this, Niese was just horrible last year. Typically, you don’t want players like this.
That is unless they are really cheap, and they have something to prove.
Niese should be both. Working in reverse, Niese, perhaps for the first time in his major league career, has something to prove. He’s coming off a year with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.587 WHIP. Quite possibly, he was the worst pitcher in all of baseball, certainly the worst starting pitcher. Because Niese is who he is, he’ll probably give you a million reasons why this happened. I’m sure he’ll say PNC Park was not suited for him, or Ray Searage was not as good a pitching coach as Dan Warthen. The Pirates probably didn’t shift as well as the Mets did. He’ll certainly blame his knee injury. At least with the knee injury, there may be an actual valid excuse, and it could be reason to buy low on Niese.
Before being traded to the Pirates, Niese was 61-61 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.361 WHIP, and a 95 ERA+. Basically, he was a fifth starter who constantly tricked the Mets into thinking he could be more than that. It’s partially why Sandy Alderson gave him a contract extension. It’s why the Pirates traded Neil Walker to get him. Maybe he fulfills that promise one day. Likely, he doesn’t. Still, Niese has already shown he’s a quality major league pitcher.
He’s a major league pitcher that is going to come cheap. With teams seemingly being devoid of interest in him during the offseason, Niese is likely going to garner little more than a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. Essentially, Niese is going to go to a team where he has an opportunity to either make the team out of Spring Training or be one of the first call-ups should a pitcher get injured or be ineffective. That being said, signing Niese is theoretically no different than the Mets recent signing of Tom Gorzelanny, or back in 2006, when they signed Darren Oliver.
For the Mets, Niese could be an intriguing bullpen arm who surprisingly showed during the 2015 postseason, he can get the big out. He may have a second act to his career as a reliever much in the same way Oliver Perez has. By focusing on one or two pitches, he could be a reliable bullpen arm like Oliver. Or maybe, he could just be more starting pitching depth for a Mets team relying on three pitchers coming off season ending surgery and two unproven starters behind them.
Maybe just maybe, the Mets should offer Niese a minor league deal to come back to the team. It isn’t the worst idea in the world.
Time and again, people mistakenly assert Josh Smoker should be considered as a left-handed reliever out of the bullpen. The reason for this mistake is the obvious belief that just because Smoker is a left-handed pitcher, he will naturally give left-handed batters fits. Unfortunately with Smoker, that isn’t the case whatsoever.
During his brief stint in the majors last year, left-handed batters hit .366/.448/.600 off of him in 29 plate appearances. Unfortunately, this wasn’t entirely the result of a small sample size. In Triple-A last year, left-handed batters hit .282 off of him. In 2015, left-handed batters hit .250 off of him in Double-A. Simply put, Smoker is not your typical lefty out of the pen.
As a result, until Smoker finds another pitch to use to get left-handed batters out, he is going to need to be lifted when a left-handed batter comes to the plate. That is unless Smoker is able to learn how to utilize his slider against left-handed batters.
The slider is the obvious choice as: (1) Smoker knows how to throw a slider; and (2) Dan Warthen‘s specialty as a pitching coach is teaching the slider. If Smoker is actually able to master the slider, then he has a real weapon he can use against left-handed batters. The good news is he obviously has been working on the pitch, and he has had some success with it as Bryce Harper would attest:
At this point, Smoker either does not have the confidence in the pitch, or he does not throw the pitch consistently well. If he ever does get to that point, and he can combine the slider with his 96 MPH fastball, Smoker could very well be unhittable. Considering Smoker already dominates right-handed batters and struck out 14.7 batters per nine in the majors (12.8 in Triple A), you have a reliever who is a potential closer. You certainly have one that is more than capable of handling the sixth inning with Fernando Salas back in the fold.
Overall, should Smoker develop his slider, the Mets bullpen has the possibility of being one of the best in the major leagues. And with that, quite possibly, much of the success of the bullpen and the Mets 2017 seasons rests with Smoker mastering the slider. With Warthen as his pitching coach, you have to like the chances of that happening.
If you look at the initial reactions to the Tom Gorzelanny signing, it was met with some anger and derision from Mets fans. It has led to a meme where Mets fans have begun to compare him to sloth from the Goonies:
https://twitter.com/barbitosfritos/status/827570412867428352
Obviously, this anger comes from Mets fans wanting the team to do more to sign free agent relievers to fill the obvious holes in the Mets bullpen. Namely, Mets fans wanted the team to go out and sign Jerry Blevins, who for some strange reason remains on the free agent market. Because the Mets signed Gorzelanny and not Blevins, Mets fans have understandably overreacted. They shouldn’t.
Because this is a minor league deal, the Mets are not obligated to carry Gorzelanny on the Opening Day roster like they were Antonio Bastardo last season. Essentially, if Gorzelanny does not show the Mets he is not capable of being a part of their bullpen, they can leave him in the minor leagues as depth.
Now, if Gorzelanny does show he can be a solid contributor out of the bullpen, the Mets only owe him $1 million with incentives that could increase his salary to $2.8 million. Essentially, this is a low risk, potentially high reward signing.
And there is reason to believe Gorzelanny can be a solid contributor in 2017. For his career, he has limited left-handed batters to a .229/.302/.356 batting line. For the sake of comparison, Blevins allowed left-handed batters to hit .255/.313/.324 off of him last year. Now, Blevins has historically been better than that against left-handed batters. However, the Mets are looking to replace Blevins’ 2016 production, and judging from Gorzelanny’s career splits, he is more than capable of that.
Another reason to believe in Gorzelanny is his repertoire. He primarily relies upon a low 90s sinker and a low 80s slider. While he also can throw a change-up and a curveball, while he has gotten older he has more and more relied on his sinker and slider. As we have seen with pitchers like Addison Reed and Fernando Salas, Dan Warthen has been successful working with them to get better results with those pitches as they have had in prior stops. It also doesn’t hurt that Travis d’Arnaud and Rene Rivera are excellent pitch framers that will be able to help Gorzelanny get into pitcher’s counts and get him that borderline called third strike.
Also, consider some of the success he has had against some of the left-handed batters he is sure to see during the 2017 season:
- Freddie Freeman 2-8
- Bryce Harper 0-3
- Daniel Murphy 3-14
At the end of the day, Gorzelanny may very well be considered a solid minor league free agent signing in the same ilk as Darren Oliver or Tim Byrdak.
On the other hand, it might not work out. But if it doesn’t, so what? It’s a classic example of nothing ventured, nothing gained. The million Gorzelanny is potentially earning should not stand in the way of the Mets re-signing Blevins and/or signing another free agent reliever.
And in fact, it didn’t. Not too long after the Mets signed Gorzelanny, the Mets then re-signed both Fernando Salas and Blevins.
Still, Gorzelanny wasn’t the guy Mets fans wanted, but he could become the guy the Mets fans want on the mound against a left-handed batter this October.
While my father first introduced me to baseball with those 1980s team with Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden, Keith Hernandez, and Gary Carter, I have relatively few memories of those teams due to my young age. No, as luck would have it, my real fandom began just after those players departed the Mets. That left me with an era of Bobby Bonilla being the best player on a team that went from World Series champions to refusing to rebuild.
As a result, I have an attachment to a group of moments and Mets players that were part of a largely forgettable era in Mets history. I can spin tales of watching Mackey Sasser diving against the wall in right field. I can tell you about Pete Schourek‘s dazzling one hitter against the Montreal Expos. To me, Rico Brogna was a perennial All Star, and Todd Hundley was going to be one if they Mets would just stop playing Kelly Stinnett and Charlie O’Brien and his hockey mask over him.
Another important figure at that time was Anthony Young.
Here is what is lost in AY’s history. He was a pretty good pitcher. In fact, back in 1991, AY was regarded by Baseball America as the Mets top prospect. When AY made it to the the majors, he showed he was a major league caliber pitcher. He was never expected to be an ace, and there was some question whether he belonged in the rotation or in the bullpen, but overall, he belonged.
Taking a cursory look at his stats, he was largely forgettable. As a Mets pitcher, AY had a 3.82 ERA and a 1.367 WHIP. His ERA+ was 98 suggesting he was only slightly below average. However, we know that wasn’t the full story. It never is. Missing here is the fact that AY lost a record 27 decisions in a row.
The losing streak started with AY struggling. In three early May starts, he allowed five, four, and five earned runs. He escaped his next start without a loss despite allowing four runs over 5.1 innings. Fans started to get frustrated with him and boo. AY would be shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen.
The losing streak became a “thing” in June when he made four starts and one relief appearance taking a loss in all of the games. Now, he was at eight straight losses. When John Franco went down with an elbow injury, AY became the closer. When he saved a game against the Cubs in an extra-inning game, we all learned that recording a save did not interrupt a consecutive loss streak.
While in the bullpen, he blew five saves, and he would accumulate six more losses putting the streak at 14. Things didn’t improve to start the 1993 season. First in the bullpen and then the rotation, he lost game after game after game. There were rumors of players griping. At times, fans were frustrated as AY had become emblematic of the Mets of this era. While the talent was there, the team just wasn’t winning. It was getting hard to watch, and you wondered why the Mets kept throwing the same people out there expecting different results.
Somewhere during this stretch, AY moved from scapegoat to folk hero. Fans began to cheer for him almost willing him to break this streak. To a certain extent, AY deserved those cheers because he was not one to publicly complain about either his run support or the defense. He was not complaining about being shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen. He went out there and did his job.
Finally,on July 28th, an Eddie Murray walk-off double snapped AY’s 27 game losing streak putting his 1993 record at 1-13. Both AY and Shea Stadium was jubilant. The win put an end to an infamous streak that made a relatively pedestrian pitcher newsworthy.
Well, AY is back in the news again, and once again, it is for something beyond his control. AY was recently diagnosed an inoperable brain tumor that doctors, and in reality everybody, hopes is benign. At 51 years of age, AY, a man most known for his losing, cannot afford to take another loss. He’s too young. He’s a husband, father, grandfather, and a coach. At this moment, now more than ever, he needs a save or a win. At this stage, he’ll probably take whatever he can get.
At this point, Mets fans can only offer thoughts and prayers, to cheer him on like we all did when he was losing game after game. Now more than ever, AY needs you. I know I will be cheering for him just like I did him all those years ago.
While most are focused on the bullpen, this Mets team has some other areas it needs to address prior to the start of the 2017 season. One of the main issues facing this team is which player is going to get the last spot on the bench?
At first blush, this may not seem like it is a major issue. If any of the infielders with an injury history go down, it is expected that Wilmer Flores and Jose Reyes can more than capably handle any one of the four infield spots. If two were to go down, we have seen enough from both Flores and Reyes to know that they can at least be a good stop gap option at a position. However, lost in the confidence you would have in Flores or Reyes is the fact that once they are moved to a starting position, the player who is the last man on the roster will begin to take on a larger role on the team.
Last year, that player was Eric Campbell. While Campbell may have had his positive attributes, he was certainly not capable of playing everyday. And yet, when Lucas Duda and David Wright went down that was the position Campbell found himself. In 2017, there is no reason to believe that Duda or Wright could last a full season. Same goes for Neil Walker, who just had season ending back surgery, and Asdrubal Cabrera, who played with a knee injury for the entirety of the 2016 season. The long story short here is the Mets need a deep bench for the 2017 season to prevent a player of Campbell’s caliber being a starter for two or more weeks.
For the past two seasons, the Mets have made trades to obtain Kelly Johnson to serve as a bench player. He has proven himself to be a useful player who has hit .260/.319/.441 over two brief stints with the Mets. Last year, he was clutch as a pinch hitter hitting four pinch hit home runs. He is versatile in his ability to play second, third, and both corner outfield positions. In 2015, we saw him play shortstop in a game. If given Spring Training to work on it, he could add first base to his repertoire. The main issue facing Johnson is he remains unsigned, and at this point, it is questionable whether the Mets have interest in him with the team already espousing that they need to cut payroll entering the 2017 season.
The next in line would likely be Terry Collins‘ favorite Ty Kelly. Like Johnson, Kelly is versatile in his ability to play across the infield and his ability to play the corner outfield positions. While he is a switch hitter, Kelly showed he was a better hitter against left-handed pitching in what was a very small sample size. Late in the season, Collins used Kelly as a pinch runner late in games. Overall, while Kelly does nothing outstanding, and is clearly best suited to being a bench player at the major league level, Collins has shown that he appreciates what Kelly can bring to the table.
In addition to Kelly, T.J. Rivera was the other standout 27 year old Mets rookie during the 2016 season. Late in the season with the injuries to Walker and Flores, Rivera grabbed a hold of the second base job and hit .333/.346/.476 in 33 games. Unlike Johnson and Kelly, Rivera has played a fair amount of games at shortstop. With that said, there is a reason why the Mets began transitioning him away from short beginning in AA. With that said, RIvera can legitimately play all four infield positions. When he was passed over for promotion to the majors, he began working in LF in AAA meaning it is possible he can play the outfield if necessary. The main sticking point with Rivera is the fact that he is an aggressive hitter that rarely draws a walk.
Last, but certainly not least, is Matt Reynolds. Unlike the aforementioned players, Reynolds is a legitimate shortstop who quite possibly has the best range out of all the major league options the Mets have at the position. For one glorious day game, Reynolds showed he can play left field, and he can get that clutch hit to help the Mets win the game. On the downside, Reynolds is the worst hitter of the bunch. In his 47 games with the Mets last year, he only hit .255/.266/.416. In the hitter’s haven that in the Pacific Coast League, he was only a .264/.336/.357 hitter last year. Ultimately, Reynolds is the guy you want out there defensively, but he is not the guy you want at the plate.
Unless the Mets sign Johnson, it looks like the fight will be between Kelly, Rivera, and Reynolds for the last spot on the bench. IN those three players, the Mets have three intriguing if not flawed players. Ultimately, that is your best bet when looking to round out your major league bench. The good news for the Mets is if one should falter, there are two more behind them that can pick up the slack. If the Mets face a number of injuries like they did in 2015 and 2016, the Mets have a couple of options that have proven they can be useful major league players. With that, it seems the Mets bench should not be a problem for the first time in a good number of years . . . at least that’s the hope.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
With the news that Jay Bruce is likely going to be the Mets Opening Day right fielder, many are pushing the idea that Michael Conforto should start to learn first base in order to make room for himself on the major league roster. Sorry, but that is a poor decision.
Now, there is nothing wrong with Conforto learning another position to increase his utility to the Mets. In fact, if Lucas Duda were to go down to injury, or if he is going to struggle due to any lingering effects from him having gone on the disabled list in consecutive seasons with back injuries, Conforto would be the first person you would want to replace him in the lineup.
With that said, the Mets need to figure out what they want Conforto to be. Do they want him to be the best outfielder this organization has developed since Darryl Strawberry? Or do they want him to become the next Eric Valent?
Simply put, at his age and with this talent, Conforto needs to be playing everyday somewhere. Ideally, that should be at the major league level as we have seen Conforto is ready to play in the majors. During his second stint in AAA, Conforto hit .493/.541/.821 with three homers and 11 RBI in 17 games. Those are video game numbers. A player that can dominate like that at the highest level of the minors does not belong there. He belongs in the majors.
He belongs in the major leagues where he has already shown glimpses of being a very good hitter. As a rookie who never played a game above AA, Conforto hit .270/.335/.506 with nine homers and 26 RBI in 56 games. In April last year, before he injured his wrist, Conforto hit an astounding .365/.442/.676 with four homers and 18 RBI in 21 games. Even with this subsequent struggles with the wrist injury and Terry Collins giving him irregular playing time, Conforto has shown he can hit at the major league level.
Again, the problem is he needs to play everyday. The problem is Bruce stands in his way.
This is the same Bruce who hit .219/.294/.391 in 50 games with the Mets last year. This is the same Bruce who is a career 109 OPS+ and 107 wRC+ career hitter. The same Bruce who has a career .318 OPB and .295 OBP over the past three seasons. This is the same Bruce who is just a few years removed from a season where he had a knee injury and hit .217/.281/.373 with 18 homers in 137 games. This is the same Bruce who is declining defensively posting a -8.9 UZR and -11 DRS last year and has averaged a -6.4 UZR and a -3 DRS over the past three seasons.
Ideally, Bruce is the guy who should be providing power off the bench. He should be learning first base to provide insurance for Duda. He should be the guy to step into the lineup should Conforto struggle or Curtis Granderson shows his age. However, we don’t live in an ideal world. A guy who has 30 homer 100 RBI potential is going to play everyday. A guy who is making $13 million is going to play everyday. A guy the Mets want to showcase so they can trade him is going to play everyday.
That leaves Conforto on the bench if he is in the majors. With Collins in charge, that leaves you to question when exactly Conforto will play. You know he’s not going to play him against left-handed batters, which is a problem because Bruce, Duda, and Granderson are all left-handed batters. Further complicating the matters is Juan Lagares is going to play against left-handed pitchers, and he is going to be a defensive replacement late in games. On top of that, the Mets are looking to see how Jose Reyes can handle the outfield. Long story short, Conforto’s not going to play, so why are you wasting time trying to get him reps at a position he’s never going to play?
Moreover, why are you wasting time getting him reps at a position he has no future? After the 2017 season Bruce, Duda, and Granderson are free agents. Assuming one or two leave in free agency, there is now a spot for Conforto to play everyday in the outfield whether that be in center or right. The first baseman in 2018 is either going to be Dominic Smith, if he makes strides in 2017 like he did in 2016, or a one year stop gap. Keep in mind that if Smith should falter, Peter Alonso, who has shown he has the potential to be a terrific major league hitter, may not be too far behind.
Overall, the Jay Bruce situtation has put Conforto in a terrible position. He’s either going to be a pinch hitter who gets very little playing time or a minor league player. This is the exact type of situation where you can mess up a prospect. The Mets should not compound this by trying to make him a first baseman when Conforto is likely not going to have a chance to play more than 20 games at first base in his entire career.
No, the Mets should instead use the time to focus on getting Conforto to work on the areas of his game that needs improvement. By doing that, you make him a much better player. By stashing him on the bench and trying to make him a 1B/OF, you are only going to accomplish making him the next Eric Valent.
At the end of the day, which is the better course of action?
In the three seasons before Yoenis Cespedes became a New York Met, he was a .263/.316/.464 hitter who averaged 24 homers and 87 RBI. Since becoming a New York Met, Cespedes has been a .282/.348/.554 hitter with 162 game averages of 41 homers and 111 RBI.
In Curtis Granderson‘s first year with the Mets, he was a .227/.326/.388 hitter with 20 homers and 66 RBI. Over the past two seasons, Granderson has been a .248/.350/.460 hitter who has averaged 28 homers and 64 RBI.
In the three years before the Mets acquired Neil Walker from the Pittsburgh Pirates, Walker was a .264/.336/.438 hitter who averaged 18 homers and 67 RBI. In his Pirates career as a right-handed batter, Walker was a career .260 hitter with just six home runs over the course of seven seasons. Last year, Walker was a .282/.347/.476 hitter with 23 homers and 55 RBI in just 113 games. From the right side of the plate, he was a .330/.391/.610 hitter with eight homers.
In the three years before Asdrubal Cabrera signed a free agent deal with the Mets, he was a .249/.307/.405 hitter who averaged 14 homers and 61 RBI. Last year, Cabrera was a .280/.336/.474 hitter with 23 homers and 62 RBI. It should also be noted he was one of if not the best hitter over the last two months of the season.
With this quartet of players, we see a definite trend of what happens when the Mets hitters being working with hitting coach Kevin Long. Whatever it is he specifically does, he has the ability to help batters not only hit for more power, but also improve their OBP. While Long’s detractors will point out there are players that haven’t performed well under his tutelage like Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto last year, there are players like the aforementioned players and Daniel Murphy who have improved. The point is overall hitters tend to improve in terms of OBP and slugging under Long.
With Long’s seeming ability to help players in these two key areas, Jay Bruce would be wise to work closely with his new hitting coach this season.
Over the course of his career, Bruce has been a .248/.318/.467 hitter who has averaged a 27 homers and 82 RBI a season with most of his damage being done at The Great American Ballpark where he is a .254/.328/.500 hitter. Basically, Bruce has basically been a slugger that not only does not know how to draw a walk, but he is also a product of his former home ballpark. At least that was the perception. That perception was not helped when Bruce hit .219/.294/.391 in 50 games with the Mets last season.
This is a large reason why he did not garner much interest on the trade market. It may very well be a reason why he will have difficulty getting a large free agent deal next offseason.
It’s odd when you think about it because Bruce has the potential to be a 30 HR/100 RBI hitter. He is your prototypical slugger who has been a three time All Star, two time Silver Slugger, and has a top 10 MVP finish in his career. There is real talent there. He just needs help to become a more well-rounded hitter. As we have seen with most of the Mets roster, Long has helped the Mets hitters on that front.
If Bruce does improve his OBP and he hits for more power, the Mets are going to have the left-handed power threat they thought they were getting when they acquired him in exchange for Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell. He is also going to help garner the interest for his services that we just not present this offseason. Overall, the working relationship between Bruce and Long can be a mutually beneficial relationship.
It’s a relationship both Bruce’s and the 2017 Mets’ future hinges upon.