For the first time in their history, the Mets can defend their pennant in the postseason. Better yet, the Mets get to defend their National League crown on their own turf.

The Mets are sending their ace Noah Syndergaard to the mound. Bear in mind, Syndergaard is not the ace by default. From the minute Syndergaard started throwing 95 MPH sliders to accompany his 100 MPH fastball, he was fast on his way to becoming the staff ace regardless of the injuries to Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom. In the 2016 season, Syndergaard led the major leauges in FIP while also allowing the fewest home runs per nine innings. He also finished .001 behind Max Scherzer for the best K/BB ratio in the National League. All told, even with the every other year narrative and Madison Bumgarner‘s postseason history, the Mets actually have the starting pitching advantage.

That advantage gets amplified when you consider the Giants just do not hit Syndergaard. As a team, the Giants are batting .170/.241/.226 with just one home run against Syndergaard. The Giants projected starting lineup is just 8-44 against Syndergaard with a home run and nine strikeouts. So long as Syndergard goes out there and pitches against the Giants batters like he has done in his short career, he is going to give the Mets every chance to beat Bumgarner and the Giants.

The Mets have a chance to beat Bumgarner too. The first three batters in the Mets lineup, Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, have each hit Bumgarner well. Towards the bottom of the lineup, both Riveras, T.J. Rivera and Rene Rivera, have had success in the one game they have faced Bumgarner. This is a big reason why the Mets were able to score four runs off Bumgarner in just five innings. With Syndergaard on the mound, and Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to follow, the Mets are not going to need as many runs this go round against Bumgarner.

Speaking of the bullpen, there has been no better tandem to close out a game than Reed and Familia. On the opposite side of the ledger, the Giants blew the most saves in all of baseball. They came just short of the all-time single season blown saves record. The Giants still don’t know who their closer will be this postseason. If it comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Mets definitively have the better pen.

Tonight should be baseball at its best. You’re going to see two of the best pitchers in baseball, both of who have had success in the postseason, squaring off in a winner-take-all game. Given the Mets having home field, and the numbers at play, you have to like the Mets chances tonight.

Lets Go Mets!