Cespedes Being Great Isn’t Enough
On July 31, 2015, the Mets were three games behind the Washington Nationals. The Mets had the pitching to win, but they still needed the offense. Most of the Mets best hitters were either on the disabled list or had just returned from their own stint on the disabled list. Under these circumstances, the Mets made a trade for Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes played his first game with the Mets on August 1st. From that point until the end of the season, Cespedes would hit .287/.337/.604 with 17 homers and 44 RBI. The Mets would go from three games back in the division to winning the National League East by seven games. The Mets then set out on a magical postseason run that found them falling just short of winning a World Series.
Many have posited that but for the Cespedes’ acquisition, the Mets would not have even made the playoffs. Cespedes was credited only with raising his game, but also raising the play of his teammates. Cespedes’ production and the ensuing run the Mets went on were seen as proof positive of that fact. Unfortunately, that narrative hasn’t been proven true this year.
Last year, the Mets were 37-22 in the 59 games Cespedes was with the Mets. This year the Mets have played 68 games, and they are 36-32. Despite having played in nine additional games, the Mets still have less wins with Cespedes on the roster. The Mets are faltering despite the fact that Cespedes is producing near the same levels he produced last year. In fact, Cespedes is hitting .287/.352/.564 with 17 homers and 43 RBI this year. Last year, this production was seen as transformative. This year many are left to inquire what moves the Mets need to make to return to the postseason.
The reason for this is simple. The current Mets team is worse than the 2015 version. For example, here is the lineup from Cespedes’ first game with the Mets:
- Curtis Granderson CF
- Daniel Murphy 3B
- Yoenis Cespedes LF
- Lucas Duda 1B
- Wilmer Flores 2B
- Kelly Johnson RF
- Travis d’Arnaud C
- Ruben Tejada SS
Here is the Mets lineup from Sunday:
- Curtis Granderson RF
- Asdrubal Cabrera SS
- Yoenis Cespedes CF
- Neil Walker 2B
- James Loney 1B
- Wilmer Flores 3B
- Michael Conforto LF
- Kevin Plawecki C
No, the lineup Cespedes first appeared would undergo some tweaks as the season progressed. First, Granderson would move back to RF, and Cespedes would play CF most of the time. Additionally, Murphy played some third base, but his primary position with the team was second base. Furthermore, until David Wright returned, Juan Uribe received the bulk of the playing time at third base. Finally, in both 2015 and 2016, Conforto was the primary left fielder that played alongside Cespedes in center. With that in mind, your only conclusion can be that the 2016 Mets as currently constituted are worse than the 2015 Mets. Here are the stats:
2016 | 2015 | |||
C | Plawecki | .194/.301/.258 | d’Arnaud | .268/.340/.485 |
1B | Loney | .279/.329/.412 | Duda | .244/.352/.486 |
2B | Walker | .266/.335/.477 | Murphy | .281/.322/.449 |
3B | Flores | .241/.308/.380 | Uribe | .219/.301/.430 |
SS | Cabrera | .265/.325/.394 | Tejada | .261/.338/.350 |
LF | Conforto | .270/.335/.506 | Conforto | .231/.297/.447 |
RF | Granderson | .223/.310/.449 | Granderson | .259/.364/.457 |
Overall, other than Walker, the 2016 Mets have no real advantage over the 2015 Mets from an offensive standpoint.
Granderson and Conforto are worse versions of themselves. Cabrera has hit for more power than Tejada did last year, but Cabrera’s stats are buttressed by a strong April. Since May 1st, Cabrera has hit .249/.306/.391. As for the catching and first base situations, the Mets have been trying to keep afloat since the Duda and d’Arnaud injuries. There is no timetable on Duda’s return. The expectation is d’Arnaud returns today.
This all tells us two things. First, Cespedes really didn’t make the players around him better last year. Yes, his presence in the lineup made the Mets a better team. However, him being a Met didn’t make the other Mets better players.
That leads to the second point, which is Sandy Alderson didn’t do the job he was tasked to do. He built a Mets team that lacked sufficient depth to carry the Mets through the anticipated Wright injury (even if the injury was of a different nature), and the likely Duda injury (again the injury was of a different nature).
So yes, Cespedes was great last year, and the Mets won. Cespedes has been similarly great this year, but the results are different. The results are different because it takes a lot more than Cespedes being great to make the Mets great. We know that now. Hopefully, so do the Mets.