After another tough start, Matt Harvey finds himself standing in Stephen Strasburg’s shoes, or cleats if you prefer. Scott Boras agreed as much in his interview with Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports saying, “We’re dealing with unknowns about why [Harvey] isn’t locating. All I can tell you is that with Tommy John guys there are times they don’t locate. Take a look at Strasburg last year.”

In 2014, Stephen Strasburg threw 200+ innings in the first time in his career and for the first time since his Tommy John surgery. When the 2015 season started, he struggled mightily. 

In his first 13 starts, he was 5-5 with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Batters were hitting .289/.342/.439 against him. The Nationals pulled Strasburg from a July 3rd start after he threw 55 pitches over 3.2 innings. He was put on the DL due to discomfort in his side. It was his second DL trip in what was quickly becoming a lost year for the former number one overall pick and presumed Nationals ace. 

Many questioned whether Strasburg could still fulfill his pre-Tommy John potential. His agent, Boras, put it best saying, “If I gave you those numbers, you would have to say the pitcher is in the dumps. His career path is altered. He’s changed. He’s someone who is in deep trouble and he’s not the same.” Boras then added this caveat, “The numbers I just gave you are of a pitcher who just signed a $175 million contract.” How did that happen?
It’s because after Strasburg’s stint on the DL, he came back a much different pitcher. He finished the year going 6-2 with a 1.90 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. Batters were only hitting .179/.206/.306 against him. He’s come out this year and been the same dominating pitcher. So far, he’s 7-0 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. Batters are hitting .233/.278/.317 against him. He’s back in the discussion with Max Scherzer as the Nationals ace.

Keeping this in mind, it was fitting that Strasburg faced Harvey on Thursday. It shone a light on how a pitcher’s return from Tommy John is not linear. 
Harvey had a good year last year going 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.019 WHIP. He had a memorable Game Five of the World Series where he seemingly re-established himself as not only the Mets ace, but also the best pitcher in the division. As Boras pointed out, “You go back a year and who’s who. I’m sitting on the phone (then) and no one is saying anything to me about Matt Harvey’s velocity and dominance. Now the roles are reversed, and the reality of it is there are unknowns in going through the Tommy John scenario.”

Like Strasburg in 2015, Harvey has faced a cold reality this year. Harvey has struggled mightily in 2016. He’s 3-6 with a 5.77 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. According to Brooks Baseball, he’s gone from throwing 96+ MPH last year to under 95 MPH this year. Boras, however, doesn’t believe Harvey’s velocity is an issue saying, “His velo is there. It is definitely there. When his velo is there, how is the league doing? The league is hitting .208 off him when he throws a 94-mphfastball and above.”
As for last night, Boras said, “Last night he was throwing 94. But the reality of it is when he mislocates . . . last night what did (Daniel) Murphy hit out of the ballpark? A curveball. He hung a curveball.”

The question the lingers is why is this happening. Boras, who represents both Harvey and Strasburg, doesn’t seem to know. He said, “This Tommy John carries with it unknowns.” He went on to elaborate, “Why are there unknowns? Because we had a pitcher go from zero to (216) innings after a 17-month rehab.”
If Harvey truly has his velocity, the question remains as to what the issue is with him. Everyone has a theory. One is Harvey’s conditioning or lack thereof. Boras didn’t lend any credence to that saying, “This guy was at our fitness institute for six weeks. And you know what? His lower half is one of the strongest in baseball of any pitcher. This is not conditioning, believe me.”

If it’s not conditioning, and it’s not velocity, then what is it? At this point, no one can honestly pinpoint the reason for Harvey’s struggles. Right now, the Mets don’t have any answers. While the Mets are still looking for answers, the Mets are going to send him back out there. 

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com