Last year, the Mets won a weak NL East with a 90-72 record. It was an NL East the Washington Nationals were supposed to win. The Miami Marlins were supposed to be the surprise team. What happened?  

Well, despite the Mets rash of injuries, they got a little lucky last year. They were buoyed by a hot April where they had an 11 game winning streak. They then seized the division and built a large lead in August by taking advantage of a weak schedule. They didn’t look back, and they rode the hot streak all the way to a National League pennant. 

Much of the Mets success was built upon the NL East and/or bad teams in general. Here is the 2015 Mets record by division:

• NL East 47-29
• NL Central 13-20
• NL West 21-12
• Interleague 9-11

Essentially, the Mets were a .500 team against non-NL East opponents and 18 games over .500 in their own division. They needed the weak division too because the Mets were 28-38 against teams over .500. It’s an uglier picture when you consider their record against teams that made the postseason last year:

• Toronto Blue Jays 2-2
• New York Yankees 2-4
• St. Louis Cardinals 3-4
• Pittsburgh Pirates 0-6
• Chicago Cubs 0-7
• Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3

That’s a combined 11-26 record. That’s ugly. Compare that to their record against NL East opponents:

• Washington Nationals 11-8
• Miami Marlins 11-8
• Atlanta Braves 11-8
• Philadelphia Phillies 14-5

The bulk of the Mets record was built against a terrible Phillies team. Luckily, they’re projected to be even worse next year. The Braves are also projected to be worse. However, the Marlins, who were supposed to be the suprise team of 2015, are supposed to be a lot better . . . 13 games better. 

It’s not unreasonable. We quickly forget Giancarlo Stanton had a season ending injury in June. Jose Fernandez only had 11 starts. Disregard any other free agent moves or trades made.  Having Stanton and Fernandez over a full season makes the Marlins a much better team. They’re a much better version than the 2015 version that gave the Mets some difficulty. 

The Mets also had the benefit of the Washington Nationals imploding last year. The Nationals entered August with a two game lead in the division. They went 12-17 in August and lost the division. Despite Bryce Harper winning the MVP Award and Max Scherzer finishing fifth in the Cy Young voting a lot went wrong for this team. 

For starters, Matt Williams was terrible. He completely lost the clubhouse. Denard Span only played in 61 games. Anthony Rendon only played in 80 games. Jonathan Papelbon came to the team and choked Harper. They underperformed their Pythagorean Win-Loss record by six games. Part of that was an awful bullpen. While the Mets still might’ve won the NL East if none of this happened, it’s fair to say the NL East would’ve been a lot closer. Perhaps the Mets miss the postseason all together, and the exciting run to the World Series never happens. 

While the Nationals did lose Jordan Zimmermann and Span in free agency, they have addressed some needs. They surged up the bullpen. They replaced Span with Ben Revere. They replaced Matt Williams with Dusty Baker. Fangraphs suggests all of that is worth an additional win next year. 

Now, logic would dictate the Mets would want to improve their roster. They didn’t. The 2015 team that lost the World Series is better than the 2016 Opening Day roster as constituted. Apparently, the Mets plan in 2016 is to beat up on the worst teams in baseball while hoping the Marlins and Nationals implode again. Essentially, the Mets are expecting a repeat of 2015. 

Apparently, good luck is the Mets strategy.