The Starter I Would Trade
Let me start off by saying, I’m not in favor of trading the Mets starting pitching. They’re still cheap, and they’re the main reason the Mets won the NL East and went to the World Series.
With that said, everyone wants at least one of the Mets young starters. It at least appears the Mets are shopping Zack Wheeler. There’s a lot of smoke surrounding the Mets moving Matt Harvey. It’s probably due to the double standards applied to him. It’s more likely that it involves him being arbitration eligible with the Mets having limited resources.
In any event, the Harvey rumors and trade suggestions are abound. At my cousin’s wedding on Saturday (congratulations Brian and Alison), my brother and I discussed the Mark Simon article regarding the proposed Harvey for Mookie Betts trade. My brother’s main objection to the idea of trading Harvey was his value will only increase next year. If we’ve seen anything with pitcher’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, it’s they are better in Year 2.
My brother is right in principle. You want to trade players at their peak value. Right now, that pitcher is Jacob deGrom. For much of the season, he was a Cy Young candidate. He was the story at the All Star Game. He had a terrific postseason. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2018, and he can’t be a free agent until 2021. His value may be at its absolute peak.
He will also be 28 years old next year making him the oldest Mets starting pitcher, at least the oldest amongst those who the Mets have control over past 2016. In some ways, he emerged as the staff ace rendering him untradeable. In other ways, it makes it the right time to trade him.
You don’t trade someone like Harvey who is still building up his trade value. You trade the player who you believe is at peak value. Again, while I don’t advocate trading a starting pitcher, we should at least identify the one who will bring back the most value and be at the most risk for regression.
That player is deGrom.