Pete Alonso Making Mets Decision Easy
In the ninth inning of the All-Star Game, Pete Alonso pinch hit for Freddie Freeman to lead off the ninth inning with the National League down by two runs. With Freeman being a Mets killer and Alonso’s struggles, most Mets fans chuckled at the decision.
Of course, we know it’s about everyone playing. Long ago, the All-Star Game went from competitive to participation trophy. Still, the juxtaposition was notable for Mets fans.
By most measures, this appears to be a career worst year for Alonso (COVID season being an exception for a litany of reasons). Right now, Alonso is on pace for a career worst slugging, OPS, and wRC+.
Notably, he’s well on pace for a career low in homers. That is correlating with more doubles. This isn’t Alonso legging out extra base hits, but more likely, a diminution in power.
His 11.7 barrel% is a career worst. The 88.3 average exit velocity is a career worst, and more alarmingly, this would mark a third successive season Alonso has seen his exit velocity dip.
Looking at the “clutch” stats, he’s doing most of his damage when the game is out of reach. When the score is within three runs, his stats are abysmal. It gets to the point where you don’t expect him to deliver in the big spot anymore.
Of course, not all of that is fair to Alonso. Clutch stats vary year-to-year. With the season teetering early and Gary Cohen pondering if this was already the low point of a lost season, he hit a huge homer to deliver the Mets first win of the season.
Fact is, we’ve seen many big moments from Alonso over his Mets career. The question is will there be more in the ensuing seasons.
This is partially a question because Alonso turned down a seven year $158 million extension offer. For a point of reference, this was higher AAV than the Atlanta Braves signed Matt Olson, who is a superior first baseman.
Whatever the reason, Scott Boras or not, Alonso believed he deserved more. Watching him this season, it’s difficult to imagine he even matches the offer the Mets once gave him.
Keep in mind, that was when Billy Eppler was the GM. Eppler is now out, and David Stearns is in charge. Stearns’ appetite to keep Alonso may motivated be the same. That does double with Juan Soto hitting the free agent market.
Free agent history is replete with massive mistakes for deals with one dimensional slugging first basemen. Ask the Philadelphia Phillies about the Ryan Howard deal, or the Baltimore Orioles about Chris Davis.
It’s very likely we already saw the best of Alonso. Truth be told, with his -6 OAA, Mark Vientos is already a better option at first. At the moment, Vientos is also a better hitter with a brighter future. Keep in mind, Vientos is a bad third baseman, and he needs to move across the diamond.
In the end, seeing Alonso’s decline and Vientos’ rise, the Mets would almost be foolish to extend Alonso at this point. That goes double with the pending free agent class. In reality, such an extension would be purely sentimental.
Fortunately for Alonso, he has the second half where he can show the Mets he’s the guy who can hit 500 homers in Queens. He’s historically been a second half player, and the Mets need him to be that to lead them to the postseason.
However, if we see more of the same of the 2024 Alonso, this will unfortunately be his last season as a Met. So far, he’s made that an easy decision for Stearns. It’s time for him to make it a difficult decision.
Vientos is a solid 3rd baseman but still learning the nuances, but he’s much more raw as first baseman. His footwork around the bag, and stretches with his foot on or around the bag needs bunch of improvement.
I do however agree there are questions about Alonso’s future performance and that he has the remaining games to convince the Mets and other teams he’s still a force and will be as he heads into his 30’s. There is bona fide doubt, but there also has to be bona fide, , accurate understanding behind his sub par 2024. And that includes whether the stress of possibly no longer being a Met is impacting him on the field. It might be but he’s not going to admit it during the season. Unless he’s injured, has mechanical flaw, has changed his workouts, he’s too young for a decline in home run power.
My concern with extending Alonso is blocking power hitting, smooth swinging prospect Clippard, and future homegrown players like the kid Collins Mets just drafted who has pretty swing and big power. Alonso’s sub par 2024 no longer makes extending him long term a no-brainer. Short term yes but doubtful he’s gonna agree to that unless it’s March. Signing Soto eliminates an outfield or DH spot for a decade and likely longer.
Turning down the Mets previous 7/158 offer, may come back to bite him the same way it did Conforto and Duda who turned down big deals and ended up losing a good deal of cash due to injury/performance decline.
I’m sure this being a contract year weighs on Alonso, but unfortunately, it’s something the Mets have to factor.
Going further, you’re right. The Mets have a ton of talent coming up through the system, and Vientos is already here.
Personally, I think the Mets should go all-in on Soto and move on from Pete. Of course with Cohen, they may be able to have both.