Zack Wheeler
Ahead of a huge three game set against the St. Louis Cardinals, the 61-61 New York Mets are at .500 and are 4.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot. Even with a good series here, nothing is guaranteed as the Mets are one of four teams currently withing five games of the last Wild Card spot. Here is where they all stand:
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are currently the second Wild Card with a 66-57 record. The team is hot having gone 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Cardinals hot streak is surprising given the fact that they are without Matt Adams, Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Michael Wacha, Seth Maness, and Trevor Rosenthal. The current Cardinals streak is a testament to their depth, resiliency, and the managing ability of Mike Matheny. Either that or it is a random hot streak, and the Mets are in prime position to take them down.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins are at 65-59 and are 1.5 games back of the Cardinals. Over their last 10 games, the Marlins are playing .500 ball. Worse yet for the team, they are starting to deal with some major injury problems. The team is most likely without Giancarlo Stanton and Wei-Yin Chen for the rest of the season. The team is currently without Adam Conley, and they have the prospect of having to shut down Jose Fernandez at some point in the season. Andrew Cashner was supposed to help alleviate some of these issues, but he has remained the same pitcher he was with the Padres. Offensively, first baseman Justin Bour has been on the disabled list for quite a while, but no one quite knows when he will return.
Over the course of the season, the Marlins have been a pleasant surprise (if you’re not a Mets fan). Ichiro Suzuki seems rejuvenated and got his 3,000 hit. Don Mattingly and Barry Bonds have changed the culture while helping young players like Christian Yelich reach their potential. However, now that they are no longer healthy, there is real doubt that they can stay in the race.
Pittsburgh Pirates
As we have seen with the Pirates the past few seasons, the Pirates a second half team. They are currently 62-59, three games back, and have a favorable schedule from here on out.
The Pirates are turning things around by turning over their rotation. They have traded away struggling and underperforming pieces in Francisco Liriano and Jon Niese and have replaced them with top prospect Jameson Taillon and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Nova seems to be the type of pitcher pitching coach Ray Searage thrives with, and it certainly hasn’t hurt him being reunited with his old catcher Francisco Cervelli.
Part of the reason the Pirates are in this position is not just their rotation, but it was also due to the struggles of Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen is having a big second half. Coupled with Starling Marte‘s terrific season, and the Pirates suddenly have a potent lineup.
In the end, the big question is if the young Pirates rotation and a bullpen without Mark Melancon can continue a second half charge to claim the second Wild Card spot.
New York Mets
The Mets have been a mess since April. Most of their players were hurt, stopped hitting, or both. However, now, the team is healthy, or as healthy as they can possibly be. Seeing Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup reminds you of the difference maker he is in the Mets lineup, and it is a reminder of the type of run the Mets are capable of making. For that to happen, the Mets are going to need more of the same from Jacob deGrom, and they are going to need Noah Syndergaard to keep pitching the way he did yesterday. The Mets will also need their other pitchers to step up especially if Steven Matz is going to be out for the season like Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler are.
In the end, if the Mets are goign to run, they have to start with them taking the Cardinals down a few pegs in this three game set starting tomorrow. If the Mets are not able to at least win two out of three, it is going to be an even steeper hill to climb to make it back to the postseason.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online.
Reports are that Justin Ruggiano has begun his rehab assignment in Las Vegas. It’s strange to think that is the case because Ruggiano was released from the Texas Rangers while he was in AAA before the Mets picked him up. Apparently, it is because the Mets believed he was a better option in center field than just about anyone, including Michael Conforto.
It was an odd decision considering Ruggiano is not a particularly good defensive center fielder. Over the course of his career, he has a -6.4 UZR and a -9 DRS. If the Mets were looking to add him for offense for when the team faces left-handed pitching, their decision making is equally misguided as Ruggiano is a career .271/.334/.516 hitter against them. Overall, the addition of Ruggiano could be classified as a bit of a panic move as Yoenis Cespedes is unable to play center field for the rest of the year, and Terry Collins has outright refused to play Conforto and Brandon Nimmo against left-handed pitchers. Long story short, the Mets are without a true center fielder, especially when there is a lefty on the mound. In some ways, the Mets signing Ruggiano was the team making the best out of a bad situation.
However, now there is a better center field option available as the Houston Astros have released Carlos Gomez.
Now, the Astros released Gomez as he has been terrible for them. Since he joined them last year, Gomez has hit .221/.277/.342 as an Astro. With each and every game, Gomez faltered, and he justified the Mets decision to void the trade to acquire him for Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores due to concerns about his hip. However, now, the Mets can acquire Gomez, and they should be interested.
From 2013 – 2015, Gomez averaged an 11.7 UZR and a 13 DRS in center field. Now, his defense has slipped from his 2013 Gold Glove caliber season, but judging on the advanced defensive metrics, Gomez has been an average at worst defensive center fielder no matter what Collin McHugh thinks:
Look, Gomez is available because he has been a bad baseball player for the past year. However, he is not that far removed from being a very productive major leaguer, and he is still only 30 years old.
If the Mets really want a right-handed bat as a platoon option, if the Mets want a player who still may have upside, and a player that can actually play center field, the Mets should go out and get Carlos Gomez. But they won’t, and it shouldn’t come as any surprise as this is a team that truly believes Ty Kelly is currently a better option in the outfield than Conforto right now. This is a team that passed over Juan Uribe to keep Kelly on the roster.
Passing on Gomez in favor of Ruggiano will become just the latest in a series of curious roster decisions the Mets have made this season.
Do you wish Terry Collins will become a better manager?
Do you wish Jay Bruce will start hitting like he was hitting for the Reds this year?
Do you wish Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Jim Henderson, Juan Lagares, Jose Reyes, Justin Ruggiano and/or Zack Wheeler can get off the disabled list soon?
Do you wish Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz will return to their pre-bone spur form?
Do you wish Curtis Granderson can return to his 2015 form?
Do you wish Michael Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud will stop regressing and start fulfilling their promise?
Do you wish Neil Walker can stay this hot for the rest of the season?
Well for all those that wish for all that and much more like a postseason berth, Grandpa Gustafson has a message for you:
The Mets have not won back-t0-back games since over a month ago. At that time, they have gone from three back in the division and leading the race for the second Wild Card. They have seen Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, and Jose Reyes go on the disabled list. Matt Harvey had season ending surgery. The Mets have seen themselves fall to nine back in the division.
Yet, the Mets are still in the thick of the Wild Card race.
After a much needed day off, the Mets begin a six game homestand against two of the worst teams in baseball in the Diamondbacks and the Padres. After that the Mets begin a West Coast trip starting with the Diamondbacks. These are nine extremely winnable games. If the Mets are a playoff team, they will steamroll through the Diamondbacks and the Padres and take possession of the second Wild Card spot.
Even better, they should have some help coming soon. Jim Henderson, Zack Wheeler, and Reyes are on rehab assignments in St. Lucie. Adding these health players along with a Michael Conforto, who hit an opposite field home run yesterday, gives you some optimism in what has mostly been a frustrating season for both him and the team.
All that anger and frustration can go away over the next nine games against two bad baseball teams.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online
Coming into the season, the Mets were high on Dilson Herrera, and they viewed him as the second baseman of the near future. It is why the Mets let postseason hero Daniel Murphy walk, and they eschewed other long term free agent options to trade for Neil Walker who was a year away from free agency. However, the Mets made it perfectly clear they were willing to forego Herrera as the second baseman of the future if the right player came along. That is why the Mets doggedly pursued Ben Zobrist in the offseason. For the right piece or for the right price, the Mets were going to move on from Herrera to make the team better.
It is just hard to believe that player was Jay Bruce.
There is a lot to like about Bruce. He is a traditional slugger who is leading the league in RBI. He has a very affordable team option. He is insurance against Yoenis Cespedes missing an extended period of time this year, and quite possibly insurance against him leaving in free agency. He also helps with a sluggish Mets offense and with the Mets inability to hit with runners for scoring position. He is also more of the same.
This is a Mets team full of low OBP, high slugging outfielders – Bruce, Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Michael Conforto. With the exception of Cespedes, all of the Mets current outfield options are left-handed batters. What this team doesn’t have is a center fielder. Currently, the best defensive center fielder on the team is Alejandro De Aza. While he is the team’s hottest hitter and best defender, it is hard to imagine he is going to be an everyday player while the team sits one of Granderson or Conforto everyday. In sum, Bruce is a nice offensive upgrade, but he doesn’t solve the teams problems. With that in mind, it seems like Herrera was a steep price to pay for someone that doesn’t solve what ails the team.
It’s also selling low on Herrera in what has been a tough year for him. Herrera has gone from a .327/.382/.511 hitter to a .276/.327/.462 hitter in AAA this year. He has had nagging shoulder issues, and he has fallen into some bad habits at the plate. It has been the first time the 22 year old has struggled at the minor league level. However, given the fact that he is still young for his level, and the fact that his struggles are closely associated with an injury, there is every reason to believe Herrera will rebound and become the All Star second baseman the Mets envisioned he would become. That is a steep price to pay for a duplicative player that does not solve the Mets problems.
We are just seeing it now with Michael Fulmer in Detroit. Fulmer was the big time prospect the Mets traded last year. He is the leading Rookie of the Year contender, and he is certainly in the Cy Young conversation with him going 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP. With each and every dominant start, it is a stark reminder how much the Mets need him this year with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery and Zack Wheeler being well behind schedule to return to the rotation. Overall, the idea behind trading Fulmer was to trade from depth to acquire a missing piece . . . a missing piece that was an imperfect fit. As we see last year, the Mets supposed depth was an allusion.
Now, the Mets did trade from depth with Herrera. Gavin Cecchini could move from shortstop to second, which now seems to be his destiny with the meteoric rise of Amed Rosario. Wilmer Flores could move over there next year. The Mets could always re-sign Neil Walker or another free agent or make another trade. Depending on David Wright‘s health, Jose Reyes could move from third to second. There are any number of factors at play, but as we see again this year, the Mets can never have enough depth as this team seems more snakebitten than any other team in the majors. With that in mind, the Mets are now less deep at second base, and they are quite possibly without their best second base option for next year.
The Mets traded away another big time prospect for another slugging corner outfielder. Hopefully, Bruce will have a similar effect on the Mets as Cespedes did last year. The Mets are going to need that type of performance to help them get back to the postseason. They are going to need that type of performance to help Mets fans forget about the player they gave away in Herrera.
Last year, the Mets seemingly had a trade in place for Carlos Gomez sending Citi Field abuzz, or in this day and age, I should say a-twitter. Apparently, the only person who was unaware that a trade happened was the Mets manager Terry Collins who kept a crying Wilmer Flores in the field.
As we would subsequently discover, the trade would fall apart due to Gomez’s hip. As a result, Flores and Zack Wheeler would remain New York Mets. In the next game Flores would play, he would do this:
Today, Brandon Nimmo finds himself in a similar situation. He was supposed to be part of the trade that sent Jay Bruce to the Mets. As one of the Mets minor leaguers in the trade failed a physical, the deal had to be reworked. The resulting deal was the Mets sending Dilson Herrera to the Reds instead of Nimmo.
As we saw with Wilmer Flores, the only possible result to this fiasco is Nimmo hitting a game winning home run tonight to beat the New York Yankees.
According to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo, the Mets have inquired about Jon Niese, and the team may be interested in Mark Melancon.
Niese makes a lot of sense for the Mets. With the Mets not knowing when and if Zack Wheeler can come back this year and Steven Matz dealing with bone spurs in his elbow, it would not hurt for them to have some insurance in their starting rotation even if it is Niese, who was dreadful as a starting pitcher this year. The hope is that Niese could get back to what he was with the Mets when he is once again working with Dan Warthen. It is also possible that Niese could pitch out of the bullpen for the Mets as he did so well for them last year.
Niese was demoted to the bullpen by the Pirates, and he has made four appearance so far pitching well. He is 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA and a 1.080 WHIP.
On the other hand, it is hard to believe the Mets could also acquire the pending free agent Melancon from the Pirates even if it was a package deal to take on both Niese and Melancon. Melancon is having another outstanding year as the Pirates closer going 1-1 with 30 saves, a 1.51 ERA, and a 0.960 WHIP in 45 appearance. Either this is a ploy to drive up the price of Melancon as the Nationals are interested in him, or it’s the Mets trying to get him on the cheap by having the Pirates try to package him with Niese. It is doubtful the Mets would give up the prospects necessary to land him to have him set up for Jeurys Familia.
The Mets are apparently more interested in a bat now due to Juan Lagares‘ injury. In other news, the Mets were interested in Steve Pearce, but they have found the Rays asking price to be too high. The Mets have also inquired on Jay Bruce as insurance for Yoenis Cespedes for both this year and the next. It should be noted that the Reds turned down a Bruce for Wheeler deal last year that resulted in the Mets acquiring Cespedes for Michael Fulmer last year at the trading deadline.
The Reds are also dangling Ross Ohlendorf, Blake Wood, and Tony Cingrani in the hopes of making a deal to alleviate some payroll for next year. There are no reports that the Reds have discussed any of these relievers with the Mets in a deal that could or could not involve Jay Bruce. However, we do know that the Reds have been scouting Kevin Plawecki for some reason or another.
If the Mets were able to move Plawecki for a Cingrani or a Wood, they have to consider it as they are both having good years out of the pen. Wood has made 44 appearances going 5-1 with one save, a 3.42 ERA, a 1.500 WHIP, and an 8.6 K/9. Cingrani has made 46 appearances going 4-2 with 12 saves, a 3.20 ERA, a 1.267 WHIP, and a 6.4 K/9. Both relievers are controllable past this year, and it appears as if Plawecki may never fulfill his offensive potential with the Mets. It is worth a shot.
With Steven Matz taking the loss last night, he fell to 0-4 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.475 ERA over his last seven starts. In those seven starts, he has been spotted rubbing his elbow in the dugout between innnigsm and he has thrown his slider less frequently. He has been clearly affected by the bone spurs in his elbow that need to eventually be surgically removed from his elbow. Matz’s problems highlight the Mets rotation issues which also include Noah Syndergaard‘s dead arm scare, and Matt Harvey having season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrom.
The options to fill Harvey’s spot in the rotation leave much to be desired. Logan Verrett currently has a 5.20 ERA as a starter this year. Both Gabriel Ynoa and Sean Gilmartin have pitched to an ERA over 6.00 for the past few months. Zack Wheeler, who was initially slated to rejoin the rotation in the beginning of July, has had a number of setbacks and is still throwing bullpen sessions. Best case scenario, Wheeler is back around mid-August. That may be too long to wait given the Mets current hole in the rotation and the health issues the Mets other starters are currently experiencing. Strange as it may sound, the Mets are actually investigating the possibility of adding a starting pitcher at the trade deadline, including but not limited to Jon Niese. Ideally, the Mets would look to add a back of the rotation starter who would hopefully not cost much in terms of prospects and who could eat up some valuable innings as the Mets continue fighting in this pennant race. With that in mind, here are some possible trade targets:
Jon Niese – Niese is having a nightmare of a season with a 4.89 ERA and a 1.556 WHIP that got him banished to the bullpen. Still, over his Mets career, he had a serviceable 3.91 ERA and a 1.361 WHIP while averaging six innings per start. In the postseason last year, he was moved to the bullpen where he got many valuable outs.
The Rays
Matt Moore – Moore is not the same pitcher who was an All Star and finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting. After his 2014 Tommy John surgery, he has not been the same pitcher. With this being his first full season back, he is 5-7 with a 4.33 ERA and a 1.298 WHIP. He is primarily a fastball-change up pitcher with a low to mid nineties fastball and a mid eighties change up. Over the course of this season, he is averaging a little over six innings per game. He still has some upside, and he has a $7 million team option and $2.5 million buyout for next year.
Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is 4-5 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.274 WHIP in 20 starts for the Rays this season. Part of the issues with Odorizzi is he doesn’t go deep into games averaging under 5.2 innings per start, and the fact that he has a higher career ERA, WHIP, and opponent’s batting average in the second half of the season. The 26 year old is under team control until 2020.
Drew Smyly – Smyly is another member of an underachieving Rays pitching staff that could be moved at the trade deadline. Smyly has been dealing with a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder, and he has opted not to have surgery. He is now in the process of having the worst year of his career going 2-11 with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.358 WHIP while averaging almost six innings per start.
Jeremy Hellickson – Unlike his former teammate Moore, Hellickson, the 2011 Rookie of the Year, never did undergo Tommy John surgery. The 2017 free agent is putting together a solid season for the Phillies going 6-7 with a 4.03 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP while averaging 5.2 innings per start. These numbers stand to be his best in four years.
The Pending Free Agents
Tyler Chatwood – The 26 year old Chatwood is having a good season with an 8-5 record with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.286 WHIP while averaging six innings per start. These numbers are all the more impressive when considering the fact that he pitches half of his games at Coors Field, and the fact that this is his first full season after having had Tommy John surgery in 2014.
Andrew Cashner – The pending free agent is having the worst year of this career going 407 with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.478 WHIP averaging under five innings per start while pitching a majority of his games in Petco Park, which could be the best pitcher’s park in the majors.
Jorge De La Rosa – The 35 year old De La Rosa is approaching both free agency and the end of his career. This year he is 6-6 with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.573 WHIP while averaging five inning per start. Surprisingly, he is even worse away from Coors Field going 2-4 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.778 WHIP.
The Angels
Jered Weaver – Once an ace for the Angels, Weaver has seemingly lost it this season. He has gone from a guy who got guys out with guile, location, and a 90 MPH sinker to a guy who tops out at 84 MPH. The result is an 8-7 record with a 5.05 ERA and a 1.412 WHIP.
Tim Lineceum – Weaver’s current Angels teammate has also gone from an ace to an also ran. In his five starts for the Angels, he is 1-3 with a 6.85 ERA and a 2.070 WHIP.
Hector Santiago – Santiago is putting together another average season going 7-4 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.272 WHIP while averaging a little over five innings per start. The 28 year old is scheduled to be a free agent after next season.
Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker is another Angel on a staff of mid to the back of the rotation starters. This year, Shoemaker is 5-9 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.264 WHIP while averaging almost six innings per start. He may be the player the Angels are least likely to move as he is under team control until 2021.
Overall, the trade options do not stand to be much better than the internal options. This may be one of the reasons why the Mets are prioritizing adding pieces to the bullpen over adding another starting pitcher at the trade deadline.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com