Assessing The Lucas Duda Trade

Now, one thing I have been upfront about is that I am partial to Lucas Duda.  For me, seeing Duda go from the Mets organization was more than just seeing a good player leave, it does close a small chapter of my life.  Unlike most writers, I want to be upfront about my biases because everyone writes with some bias.  If you understand that, you’re better able to assess the evaluation.

Now before addressing this specific trade, Duda was arguably worth a second round pick or the equivalent due to the changes in the qualifying offer system.  Ultimately, when assessing the Mets trade of Duda for Drew Smith, the question is whether the Mets accomplished that in this deal.

The answer?  Maybe.

On the one hand, only earlier this year his trade value was just a fourth outfielder in Mikie Mahtook.  However, judging his value on that alone is silly.  It’s very possible the Tigers made a bad trade.  It’s also possible Smith got better as the year progressed.  With Smith, it seems both might be true.

Based on various scouting reports, Smith is a reliever who throws it in the high 90s and he can reach 99 MPH.  He combines that with a good but inconsistent curveball. Both pitches have been dominant for him this year with him going 1-2 with a 1.60 ERA, 0.911 WHIP, and an 8.0 K/9 across three levels of the minors and in two different organizations.  Smith certainly gets the most out of these pitches because he locates both of these pitches well.

Looking at the stats and his stuff, there is a lot to like.  He has been getting good results.  One thing that stands out with him is he has allowed just five extra base hits in 45.0 innings pitched.  Four of those extra base hits were doubles, and the lone home run he has allowed was to now fellow Mets prospect Peter Alonso.  Remarkably, that homer is the only one he has allowed in his career.

On the downside is there’s not a lot of strikeouts.  For someone with his stuff, you’d expect a lot more.  More troubling is the fact he has yet to strike anyone above Single-A.  It should be noted he’s pitched 4.2 innings above Single-A.  One of the reasons why his strikeouts are low could be his fastball is a straight fastball.

Given his repertoire and the low amount of strikeouts, as Mets fans we may be looking at another Bobby Parnell or Vic Black.  Depending on your point of view, that’s a good or bad thing.

Ultimately, Smith is an interesting relief prospect, but in some ways, he’s also a project.  Given Duda’s production, the Mets probably should have done better than this.  Arguably, they should have also received another lower level prospect in return to mitigate some of the boom/bust potential in Smith.

However, this analysis does ignore the down market for sluggers like Duda, and the fact Sandy Alderson probably waited too long to trade him.  It also ignores this is a pitcher with high upside.  If he hits his ceiling, and he’s in an organization where he very well could, you’re probably calling this trade a win for the Mets.

Another factor is this trade does make room for Dominic Smith to play sooner rather than later.  This will allow Smith to get his feet wet this year and make the necessary adjustments heading into the 2018 season to help him be a much better player.

Overall, the Mets likely sold low on Duda.  In the end, we’re probably not going to care much if Smith becomes the 10 time All Star Duda said he wants him to become.  We’ll care even less if Smith becomes a dominant late inning reliever.  As of today, anything is possible

0 thoughts on “Assessing The Lucas Duda Trade”

  1. Gothamist says:

    Correct me, did Parnell have a resume?

    What did Pittsburgh see in Dilldos and Vic where they let them go?

    You would risk a tender on Duda?
    You have given up on 2018/2019 and prefer a #2 pick who might be 18 years old and MLB ready in 2024?

    Where else is bullpen coming from?

    If the Mets made the 2018 WS can they win w Duda on First Base?
    Would he take the $18m and be a FA in 2019 at nearly 33 and still get a 4-5 year deal at $15m per?

    Of Harvey Thor Jacob and Familia do you think the Mets will lock up three?

    I believe the window is 2018/2019 more so 2018.
    If Sandy wanted that prospect Sandy gets the pay, I do not..
    I have not scouted him.
    I trust in Sandy..

    1. metsdaddy says:

      Parnell had a nice career pre-TJ. Same could be said for Vic Black before his own injury issues. Neither were dominant That’s why you say it’s a mixed bag getting the new version of them.

      As I’ve previously said, I would 100% risk tendering Duda a QO. There was little to no downside.

      By the way, it’s doubtful Smith is an impact reliever next year as he’s been assigned to Binghamton.

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