Yoenis Cespedes
Recent reports indicate in the likely event Yoenis Cespedes opts out if his contract, the starting point in negotiations will be four years, $100 million. Other industry insiders believe with the run Cespedes has had with the Mets, his next contract will exceed $125 million. Seeing how much Cespedes has meant to the Mets, the team can ill-afford to lose him in free agency no matter what the cost.
So what exactly does this have to do with Mets minor leaguer Tim Tebow? Well, Tebow is the golden goose.
It's Tebow Time! @TimTebow #LGM pic.twitter.com/en7IT5nSmo
— Majestic Athletic (@MajesticOnField) September 19, 2016
That’s right. The Mets are selling Tebow jerseys and other Tebow merchandise. Quickly, the Tebow Mets jersey has already become a top seller. Normally, teams would not be permitted to sell jerseys of minor league players who are not on the 40 man roster. However as ESPN’s Darren Rovell reports, Tebow circumvented that by agreeing to a deal directly with Majestic.
This last point is important. According to ESPN’s Adam Rubin, because Tebow is not part of the MLB licensing deal, the Mets are not required to share the profits from the sale of Tebow merchandise with the other 29 teams. Accordingly, with each and every Tebow jersey sold, the Mets will make exponentially more money on it than they would have if, for example, a fan purchased a Cespedes jersey.
Overall, this means if you want the Mets to re-sign Cespedes, the best way to show your support for him might just be buying a Tebow jersey. If the Mets sell enough of them, there should be no excuse for the Mets being unable to re-sign Cespedes.
The Mets have had a number of players serve as admirable replacements and stop gaps to help lead the Mets charge back to the postseason.
Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have replaced the injured Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz in the Mets rotation, and they have combined to go 6-3 with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP in nine starts and 10 relief appearances. James Loney had a terrific first half to help cushion the blow of the loss of Lucas Duda. Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson have helped to replicate the offensive production of Neil Walker who is done for the season after having season ending back surgery. After Flores went down with a neck injury, T.J. Rivera had the game of his life. When Juan Lagares needed surgery to repair a torn ligament in this thumb and Yoenis Cespedes found himself unable to play center field with his injured quad, Curtis Granderson began playing center field and hitting again. Same goes for Alejandro De Aza. For the very few games Justin Ruggiano played, he mashed left-handed pitching.
However, while each of these players have done a better than expected job, there is no doubt the Mets would be better off with their regulars. Fortunately, the reinforcements are on their way with Lagares being activated off the disabled list.
With the minor league seasons having been over for about a week, Lagares has not had the benefit of being able to face live pitching. That shouldn’t matter much as Lagares’ true value has always been as a center fielder. This season the 2014 Gold Glover has returned to form with a 4.5 UZR and a 7 DRS in 59 games this season. This will allow the Mets to put out their best defensive alignment of Cespedes in left, Lagares in center, and Granderson in right late in games.
This was the alignment the Mets used effectively in the stretch run last season and in their run to the World Series. Speaking of which, Lagares was a tremendous contributor to the Mets postseason run last year. Lagares appeared in 13 postseason games last year playing a Gold Glove caliber center field while hitting .348/.375/.435 with two stolen bases. If Lagares is again able to play and raise his game again, the Mets chances of returning to the World Series will greatly improved.
And as if that wasn’t enough, Duda will be activated later today, and at a minimum, he will be available to pinch hit. On Sunday, deGrom will return to the rotation. He will start to work his way back as he’s limited to 75 pitches. Finally, Matz has been throwing off a mound.
The reinforcements are coming, and with them the Mets chances of winning a World Series has vastly improved.
Tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals head out west to begin a pivotal four game series against the San Francisco Giants that will have far reaching implications on the National League Wild Card race. With each game played, the Mets will both gain ground on one team and lose ground to another. As the series begins, here is where the Wild Card race stands:
| Record | GB | |
| Giants | 77-68 | + 0.5 |
| Mets | 77-69 | – |
| Cardinals | 76-69 | 0.5 |
With the Mets being idle, one of two things are going to happen today: (1) they are going to be tied with the Giants for the first Wild Card; or (2) they are going to be tied with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card. As we can see from that, this four game set between the Giants and Cardinals can be both a blessing and a curse that makes you question what result you want from this four game set.
Case for the San Francisco Giants
Each generation of Mets fan has a tale of woe that has come at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals. There was the Terry Pendleton home run off Roger McDowell in 1987, and Carlos Beltran looking at an Adam Wainwright curveball in 2006. There have been many other instances, and if history is any evidence, there will be more. It is quite understandable if Mets fans do not want to see a Cardinals uniform in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game.
There are other baseball reasons to want to face the Giants over the Cardinals. Since the All Star Break, the Giants have had the worst record in all of baseball. The Giants ace, Madison Bumgarner, has struggled in the second half going 4-5 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP. The last time Bumgarner pitched against the Giants he only lasted five innings allowing six hits, four runs, four earned, and three walks while striking out six. Bumgarner isn’t the only Giants star that has struggled in the second half.
Buster Posey is amidst the worst year in his career which hast mostly been the result of him hitting .274/.352/.366 with only one home run in the second half. Posey is a major reason why the Giants have scored the third least runs in the National League after the All Star Break. You would have to like the Mets chances against this lineup when they are hopefully sending Noah Syndergaard to the mound.
Even if the Giants were to get a lead on the Mets in the Wild Card Game, it will not be a safe lead for the Giants whose bullpen has completely fallen apart. Santiago Casilla has lost his closer’s job. Joe Nathan was given a chance, but only proved why he was a 41 year old pitcher in the minors this year. Hunter Strickland crashed and burned in his first chance to take over the closer’s position. Fact is, the Giants don’t have a bullpen that can protect a lead which is really dangerous against a Mets team that has Yoenis Cespedes ready, willing, and able to hit a clutch home run late in the game.
In addition to the Giants falling apart, the Mets could very well have more trouble with the Cardinals. Yadier Molina is a Mets killer. Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk give the Mets fits. While the Cardinals rotation has been a big disappointment this season, Carlos Martinez has pitched like an ace this year. In his career, he is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA against the Mets. If the Cardinals get a lead, Seung-hwan Oh has shown himself to be a dominant closer. Given the past history, and how poorly the Mets matchup against the Cardinals, they would be better off facing the Giants.
Case for the St. Louis Cardinals
We can saw all we want about Madison Bumgarner having a tough second half, and it is true. However, under no circumstances do you want to face him in a winner-take-all game. You just have to go to the 2014 Postseason video for proof of that. In the Wild Card Game, he pitched a complete game shutout. In Game 7 of the World Series, he came out of the bullpen to pitch five shutout innings to earn the save. In his postseason career, he is 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.883 WHIP. You don’t want to be anywhere near him. In addition to this, many people will tell you that you don’t want to face the Giants because it is an even-numbered year.
No matter how much better the Mets may matchup against the Cardinals, you always want to avoid an ace like Bumgarner in the postseason. Pitching wins, and the Cardinals have no one on the level of Bumgarner.
Case for a Split
A sweep at the hands of the other could bury one of the Wild Card contenders. The corollary to that is it will rejuvenate one of the two Wild Card contenders. As it stands, the Giants and Cardinals have seemingly had trouble getting out of their own way. If either team was able to sweep or take three out of four in the series, it will be a significant mental boost that could lead to them playing better baseball from here on out. Ideally, the Mets do not want to face a hot team in that Wild Card game.
Ideally, the Mets would also have homefield in the Wild Card Game. Unless, the Mets sweep the Twins, which may proven to be more difficult than it should be with Gabriel Ynoa potentially slated to go Sunday, the Mets will trail one of these two teams for home field in the Wild Card race. As of right now, the Mets do not have any teams over .500 remaining on their schedule. If the Mets take care of business, they should be able to earn a Wild Card spot not matter what happens in the Giants-Cardinals series.
As it stands, the Mets would probably want to face the Giants, and they would want to face them at home. However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and as we have learned far too often, you should be careful for what you wish for.
The obvious answer to when a team loses a game is after they have recorded their 27th out. It’s also the technically correct answer. However, there are moments within a game, the proverbial turning points, when a team really loses the game.
With respect to today’s game against the Nationals, many will pinpoint the moment Wilson Ramos hit a solo home run off Fernando Salas in the bottom of the seventh. It would be the only run scored in the game. The reason it was the only run scored on the game was because the Mets offense wasted a chance to put a crooked number on the board in the first inning.
Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera led off the game with back-to-back singles off Tanner Roark. Curtis Granderson then drew a one out walk to load the bases. Then Jay Bruce stepped up to the plate. Bruce was brought to the Mets exactly for moments like this. He’s a “proven run producer.” Bruce struck out on three straight pitches.
After T.J. Rivera fouled out, the rally was over. From that point forward, the Mets would only get one more hit. It was important to get a hit there because Roark entered the game with a career 2.76 ERA against the Mets having never allowed more than two earned runs against them in any appearance. Their chance to win the game was right then and there, and they blew it.
It also spoiled a terrific effort by Robert Gsellman. The Gazelle shut out the Nationals over 5.2 innings only allowing five hits and one walk with four strikeouts. It was probably the best he looked in his short time in the majors.
He got into a little trouble in the sixth. He allowed a leadoff single to Roark, and Roark would advance on a wild pitch. At that point, even with two outs, Terry Collins wasn’t messing around with Daniel Murphy coming to the plate.
Not only did Collins bring in Josh Smoker, he ordered Smoker to intentionally walk Murphy. Smoker then caught Bryce Harper looking to get out of the jam.
Instead of this spurring the Mets to victory, it just delayed the inevitable. The Mets never threatened after the first losing the game. With it, the Mets lost the chance to go to 10 games over .500, and they missed the chance to leap to the top of the Wild Card standings.
Game Notes: In going 1-2, Murphy has gotten a hit in all 19 games against the Mets this season. The Nationals were 12-7 against the Mets this year after going 8-11 last year. Rene Rivera threw out two base stealers to complete strike ’em out-throw ’em out double plays.
Pick your reason why the Mets lost this game.
The first and obvious one was Rafael Montero. Montero’s final line was 1.2 innings, five hits, six runs, six earned, four walks, and two strikeouts. He probably wasn’t even that good either.
The sequence that perfectly sums up the night Montero had, as well as his Mets career, was his walking Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos with the bases loaded in the first inning.
Remarkably, Collins saw those 37 pitches and thought, “I want to see more of that!” Actually, you know what, it wasn’t all that surprising. Collins passed over a chance to hit for him in the second inning so he could get two more outs out of Montero before going to a rested Gabriel Ynoa or Sean Gilmartin. They’d eventually come into the game along with the other long man Logan Verrett.
For what it’s worth, Ynoa was roughed up as well pitching two innings allowing three hits, two runs, two earned, and two walks with one strikeout.
If Jacob deGrom or Steven Matz cannot come back quickly, the Mets are in trouble because they cannot keep doing this three more times this season. They probably can’t afford to do this even one more time.
Through Montero’s horrendous outing, you lose just how bad the Mets offense was. It’s quite easy to forget the Mets had a 1-0 lead with Yoenis Cespedes hitting an RBI groundout to score Jose Reyes, who had led off the game with a double. After that, the Mets did nothing against Mat Latos and the Nationals bullpen.
In fact, with Latos homering off Montero to lead off the second, he allowed as many runs as he knocked in. The only reason he didn’t get the win is he left the game early due to injury.
The Mets didn’t deserve to win this one, and they didn’t look like a team that was fighting for a Wild Card. To rub salt in the wound, Daniel Murphy was 3-5 with a double. Meanwhile, Neil Walker is done for the season with back surgery, and no one knows when Wilmer Flores can play again.
At least Kyle Hendricks took care of business against the Cardinals to keep the Mets a half game ahead of them in the Wild Card race.
For much of this season, it is fair to say that the Mets have underachieved which has put them in a fight for the Wild Card instead of a fight for the division. Nothing speaks more to that than the Mets going 3-13 against the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and the White Sox. Flip that, and you have the Mets a game up on the Nationals right now.
If you want to argue the Mets are in this position due to injuries, you have to admit the Mets have exacerbated those problems. Jim Henderson‘s usage may not have caused the shoulder impingement, how he was used early in the season certainly didn’t help. Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera were thrown out there game after game despite dealing with leg injuries. Neil Walker was playing everyday during the summer despite him not being able to feel his toes. This doesn’t even address pitching Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz with injuries of their own. Overall, the decisions to play these players was either Terry Collins‘ call or was a decision made in conjunction with him.
It’s important thing to keep in mind with Collins now being lauded for his managing and some wanting to put him in the Manager of the Year discussion. People want him in the discussion despite all that he has done to harm the Mets chances (and possibly players) to put them in position to return to the postseason. People want him in the discussion despite Collins making a poor decision each and every game that is at a minimum puzzling, and at worst prevents the Mets chances to win the game. Accordingly, after each game, I will have a separate entry highlighting Collins’ poor managerial decision making.
Yesterday, the Mets annihilated the Braves 10-3. In the fifth inning, the Mets had a 10-1 lead. The chances of blowing that game are next to nothing, and yet Collins kept his starters in virtually the entire game.
Asdrubal Cabrera has a balky knee. With the expanded rosters, the Mets had both Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds available to take over for him. Behind them were Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly. There was plenty of depth not just to get Cabrera out of the game, but also to have pinch hitters and infielders available. Instead, Collins kept him in until the eighth inning.
Yoenis Cespedes has had an injured quad that has hampered him for most of the season. Curtis Granderson has shown signs of fatigue with his playing center field. The Mets had Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto on the bench. Instead of getting Cespedes and Granderson out of the game, Cespedes played the full game and Granderson only came out in the eighth.
So no, Collins didn’t prevent the Mets from winning yesterday’s game. However, his decisions may have far-reaching implications for the Mets in the stretch run of the season.
In many ways, Turner Field was an absolute eye sore from the general design of the place to the players who wore the Braves uniforms to Kenny Rogers inability to throw one over the plate against Andruw Jones. What was ugliest of all was the Mets record there as the Mets were 67-106 at Turner Field. Keep in mind, that record was boosted by the Mets winning 11 of their last 14 there.
Just as the Mets luck would go, just as they were getting the hang of things there, the Braves decided to tear the place down. At least the Mets would close out their book at Turner Field in style.
First, it was the pitching of Seth Lugo. Again, he was economical with his pitches, and he was able to go deep into games. What is also impressive was his ability to once again navigate his way out of trouble. This is where there is a real debate between “traditionalist” and “stat-guys.” The traditionalist say he has an innate ability to get himself out of trouble while stat-guys say he is going to regress to the mean. Right now, with the Mets in fight for the Wild Card, the results are all that matter, and Lugo is getting the results.
After Freddie Freeman singled home Adonis Garcia, the Braves would then load the bases with no outs. At this point, the game was quickly turning from an easy 6-1 lead to a typical Turner Field nightmare. Lugo then induced Anthony Recker to pop out to first base. To be fair, having seen his time with the Mets, that wasn’t exactly impressive. What was impressive was him using his slider to induce a groundball from Dansby Swanson. Despite his speed, the Mets were able to turn the 6-4-3 double play to keep it at 6-1.
It was another great game from Lugo whose final line was seven innings, six hits, two runs, two earned, one walk, and five strikeouts. Overall, he is solidifying his spot on the postseason roster. Lugo got the win not just because of his pitching, but also because the Mets offense exploded.
As usual, when discussing the Mets offense exploding, you need to start with Yoenis Cespedes. In the first, his ground out scored Asdrubal Cabrera, who somehow legged out a triple on one leg, to give the Mets a 1-0 lead. In the third, he then did this:
At this point, not even Lawrence Chipper Jones could have save the Braves.
A shocking James Loney home run in the fourth would make it a 6-0 game. Credit is due to Loney here. After a disturbingly bad August, he has turned things around in September. So far this month, he is hitting .333/.391/.571 with two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. At a time when the Mets need to ride the hot hand to get the Wild Card, Loney has to be playing right now. No, I did not like saying that.
Add in another big rally in the fifth, featuring another Loney RBI base hit, and the Mets would go on to win 10-3. It was such a beating that even Lugo got into the action hitting a sacrifice fly. With that huge lead, it was beyond bizarre that Terry Collins would take his sweet time removing his injured players from the game. He didn’t remove Cabrera until the eighth despite having Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds on the bench. At least, Cecchini would get a pinch hitting appearance in the game (striking out). He waited until the ninth to remove Curtis Granderson for Michael Conforto even if it would behoove the Mets to give Granderson some extra rest where they can find it. Naturally, Cespedes would play the entire game.
It was a good day for the Mets as is everyday they beat the Braves. With the Cardinals losing, the Mets found themselves back a half-game ahead of them in the Wild Card standings and tied with them in the loss column. The only real problem with the game was the fact that once again the Mets failed to wear the First Responders caps to honor the fallen.
Game Notes: Logan Verrett is pretty much done for the season. He got mop-up work in the ninth, and he couldn’t complete the task. After allowing a run, he then loaded the bases, and he needed to be bailed out by Josh Edgin. Edgin would get out of the inning without allowing another run.
No one, not even Sandy Alderson himself, knew the Mets were getting this Yoenis Cespedes when they acquired him at the trade deadline last year. In Cespedes’ first three seasons in the majors, he was a .263/.316/.464 hitter who averaged 24 homers and 87 RBI. He was a guy had a lot of power, but he didn’t quite hit for enough power to compensate for his low OBP. However, with the Mets, Cespedes has been a completely different player. He might’ve just put together the best “season” any Mets player has ever had.
After last night’s game, Cespedes played in his 162nd game with the New York Mets. In those 162 games, Cespedes has hit .294/.358/.584 with 96 runs, 34 doubles, five triples, 44 homers, and 112 RBI. Other than Mike Piazza, Carlos Beltran, or possibly Darryl Strawberry, there are no Mets players that you expect to put up these types of numbers over the course of a season. In fact, no one has really put up these types of numbers in a season as a Met.
If Cespedes had put these numbers over the course of one season instead of parts of one season, he would hold the Mets single season home run record topping Beltran’s 2006 season and Todd Hundley‘s 1996 season. His .584 slugging only trails Beltran’s 2006 .594 slugging percentage (minimum 500 at bats). His 112 RBI would rank 11th all-time.
Keep in mind, this only refers to the kind of impact you can quantify. These numbers do not speak to how he has energized both the team and the fanbase. It only alludes to how each and every Cespedes at bat is a must see event; how you don’t leave the room when he steps up to the plate. It only gives a glimpse to how Cespedes has taken the Mets from a team in the postseason mix to a team that is in the discussion to win the World Series. Overall, Cespedes’ 162 game run is among the greatest, if not the greatest, we have seen in Mets history.
This speaks to how much the Mets need to have him on the team and in the lineup. Over this past “season” he has shown just how important he is. If Cespedes does indeed choose to opt out after the season, the Mets must do everything they can do to make sure he stays with the team.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online