Yoenis Cespedes
The Mets have a number of excuses why they are in the position they are. Those excuses mostly surround the pitching. Noah Syndergaard went down in April with a torn lat. Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom haven’t been the same since returning from their season ending surgeries. There has been a revolving door at the fifth starter spot that has seen the likes of Rafael Montero, Adam Wilk, Tommy Milone, and Tyler Pill. This has put stress on the bullpen, and the bullpen broke.
They broke because Jeurys Familia went down for the season. Hansel Robles couldn’t keep up with the workload and fell apart. Josh Smoker hasn’t been able to figure it out this year. Addison Reed is a much better set-up man than a closer.
Through all of this, despite playing a weak schedule, the Mets are seven games under .500. The Mets are THIS CLOSE to being sellers.
However, there is hope. Seth Lugo and Steven Matz are coming off the Disabled List. Last year, Lugo was 5-1 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP. He followed that breakout performance with a breakout performance in the World Baseball Classic.
Matz is even better than Lugo. Before succumbing to the bone spur in his elbow last year, Matz had a stretch from April 17th to June 18th where he was 7-2 with a 1.91 ERA and a 1.047 WHIP. That was after his rookie season where he was 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA and a 1.234 WHIP.
That combination of Lugo and Matz vastly improves the Mets rotation. It also bumps a good pitcher like Robert Gsellman into the bullpen. Lately, Gsellman has figured it out. In his last four appearances, he’s 2-0 with hold posting a 2.66 ERA and a 1.082 WHIP. This will give the bullpen a fresh arm. More than that, it means one of Smoker or Neil Ramirez is going to be gone from the bullpen.
Finally, the Mets will have the pitching to help an offense that has tried to carry this team. In May, the Mets averaged the second most runs per game (5.7) in the National League. Things promise to get better with Yoenis Cespedes having played in his first rull rehab game for St. Lucie last night.
With that, the Mets will have as complete a team as they can expect for the reason for the season. Now, they just have to take advantage of their opportunities. That starts with the four game series with a Braves team who is a half game up on the Mets for second place in the National League East. Sweep them, and the Mets will find themselves just three games under .500.
After that, the Mets have a seven game home stand. First, there are the Chicago Cubs, who are not the same team they were last year. After that, the Mets have a four game set with the Washington Nationals.
If the Mets take care of business against the Braves and Cubs, that could be a HUGE series for this Mets team. Sweep the Nationals at home, and all of a sudden the Mets could be just eight games back in the division or better. That’s still a large deficit to overcome, but it’s not as daunting as the 12 games they are now.
The Mets don’t take advantage of this opportunity? It’s time to sell. At that point, the team should look to move everyone to pave the way for Amed Rosario, who frankly should be here now, and Dominic Smith to become the David Wright and Jose Reyes of this generation.
If the Mets don’t want to do that, it’s time to take care of business. That starts tonight with a huge start for Matt Harvey. This used to be the exact moment you wanted him on the mound. It is time for that to happen again.
No one should expect a manager to publicly criticize his players. We also shouldn’t exactly anticipate a manager will be 100% honest in his responses. Still, there are times when a manager gives answers to honest questions, and he reveals part of himself. When Terry Collins does this, the answers are downright scary.
Zach Braziller of the New York Post posited a question to Collins if the Mets would platoon Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, and Curtis Granderson when Yoenis Cespedes returns. Collins’ answer to the question was he thought Conforto is tiring. This is a nonsense.
In the Month of May, Conforto hit .314/.426/.627 with nine doubles, a triple, seven homers, and 21 RBI. Over the last two weeks, he is hitting .333/.472/.643. But sure, he’s the one who’s tiring. Not Bruce who is hitting .210/.296/.430 with seven doubles, five homers, and 19 RBI in May. Over the last two weeks, Bruce is hitting .214/.300/.429.
There is a world of acceptable answers to this question including Terry’s favorite, “You hit, you play.” Maybe he’s abandoned it because he really doesn’t follow the mantra especially when he’s batting Jose Reyes second and Bruce third in the lineup. Speaking of Reyes, Collins had a doozy of an answer about Reyes:
TC on Reyes role in #mets offense in May: "It helps that Jose swung better, getting on base." May numbers: .216/.280/.330. .610 OPS.
— Zach Braziller (@NYPost_Brazille) June 1, 2017
Seriously, how can anyone have anything positive to say about Reyes’ play this season? He’s been a bad baseball player. Among the everyday players, Reyes has the worst batting average, OBP, slugging, OPS+, wRC+, and WAR. You name it, and he’s bad at it. About the only thing you can say about Reyes is he leads the Mets in stolen bases with six. Despite all of this, Reyes bats second in the lineup instead of playing the Eric Young, Jr. role as a pinch runner.
Given his managerial decisions, Collins’ answers have given insight into what he really believes to be true. Somehow he believes Conforto is the player who is tired, and Reyes is getting on base. It really makes you question if he’s actually watching the games.
Let’s be honest. With nearly two months gone in the season, there is not a lot of reason to believe in the 2017 Mets. The team is five games under .500 and just 14-16 against their own division. Important players like Yoenis Cespedes, Jeurys Familia, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard and David Wright have had extended stints on the disabled list. Presumably, Familia, Syndergaard, and Wright are done for the season. The team features two everyday players who are fighting to get and stay atop the Mendoza Line, and the entire pitching staff has underperformed. And despite all of these problems, and many more which have not been mentioned, there are very real reasons to be optimistic about the Mets as we head into the summer months:
1. The Starting Pitching Is Improving
In case, you haven’t noticed the Mets are no longer have the worst ERA in all of baseball. A huge reason for that is the starting pitching is not only improving, but they are also pitching deeper into games. That has started with the re-emergence of Jacob deGrom. Before last night’s debacle, in his last two starts, deGrom pitched 15.1 innings allowing just one earned run. He threw down the gauntlet, and the other starting pitchers have responded.
The Mets are now starting to put together quality starts with some regularity. Matt Harvey and Robert Gsellman are coming off their best starts in over a month. Zack Wheeler continues to pregress well in his first season in over two years. Matz and Seth Lugo will soon join the rotation. As we have seen time and again, this team goes as its pitching goes, and the pitching is trending in the right direction.
2. The Bullpen Is Settling Down
With the starters failing to go deep into games and Familia essentially being a non-factor this season, the bullpen has struggled. The struggles stem from both overwork and trying to slot guys into different roles than had previously been anticipated. With the starters going deeper, the bullpen is starting to get some rest, and the bullpen is starting to look better.
Another factor is the emergence of Paul Sewald. A player the Mets were willing to risk losing in the Rule 5 Draft has now become the Mets most important reliever. He has been used for multiple innings and to nail down the eighth inning. He has shown his success in Vegas was no fluke pitching to a 2.21 ERA in 20.1 innings. His emergence has allowed Terry Collins to ease up on some of his other relievers.Salas has responded by lowering his ERA by almost two runs in the month of May, has not blown one lead, and he has not allowed an earned run in 11 of his last 14 appearances. A rejuvenated Salas is good for the Mets.
Another key factor is the composition of the bullpen. Rafael Montero is gone. Neil Ramirez is on his way out as well. He should be gone once Hansel Robles figures things out in Vegas and/or Gsellman is moved to the bullpen with the return of Matz and Lugo from the disabled list. Certainly, the composition of arms is going to be much better down there, and with the starters going deeper, they will be better rested.
3. Help Is On The Way
As noted, Matz and Lugo will soon rejoin the rotation. Behind them, we may also see Robles return to the majors prompting the Mets to send down one of the more ineffective arms in Ramirez and/or Josh Smoker. But it’s not just on the pitching side that the Mets will improve, it’s also on the offensive side.
According to various reports, Cespedes is about 7-1o days away. When he returns, the Mets will be adding an MVP caliber player to play alongside Michael Conforto in the outfield, who is having an MVP caliber season himself. Cespedes not only lengthens the lineup, but he also adds a right-handed power threat which the lineup is sorely lacking right now. While the offense isn’t the issue so far, a team that is fighting to not only get back to .500, but also to get back to the postseason needs to upgrade everywhere it can.
It’s more than Cespedes. At some point, the moving target that is the Super Two deadline is going to comfortably pass clearing yet another hurdle for the Mets to call-up Amed Rosario. If Rosario does get called-up, it would significantly improve the Mets infield defense, and it could also improve the lineup. Through his first 50 games, Rosario is hitting .354/.393/.519 with 13 doubles, three triples, five homers, and 37 RBI.
With all that, there is legitimate reason for hope the Mets will be a better team over the final four months of the season. That team could catch the Nationals in the standings especially when you consider the two teams have 13 games against one another remaining. That is enough games to make-up the 9.5 game gap between the teams in the standings. That goes double when you consider the Nationals have bullpen issues of their own, and they are just 15-12 since losing Adam Eaton for the season.
If the Mets play as well as they can play, this is going to be an exciting summer at Citi Field. If the Mets play the way they are capable, this will soon become a pennant race.
Whenever he takes the mound, the biggest story in any Mets game is going to be Matt Harvey. Part of the reason is Harvey is a lightning rod. The main reason is the Mets need Harvey to be good if they have any hopes to get back to .500 and then back into the NL East race. If we get the Harvey we saw tonight, there is a chance.
Now, this wasn’t the Harvey of 2013 or even 2015. Heck, this wasn’t even the Harvey of April. This was a Harvey still trying to find himself and succeeding more than he has been. We saw some things from his struggles this year that gave you some pause as to how this game would progress. First, there is his propensity to give up the long ball as evidenced by the Gregory Polanco second inning home run. There is the command as shown by Harvey’s two walks. Then, there is the inability to really put batters away. Tonight, he had only four strikeouts.
And yet, there was a Harvey emerging that could be a good pitcher again. The one thing that stood out was his ability to limit the damage. The biggest example of this was the fourth inning. The Mets had a narrow 2-1 lead, and the Pirates had a rally going. David Freese hit a one out infield singles, and Andrew McCutchen followed with his own single. As if this wasn’t enough, Harvey threw a wild pitch putting runners on second and third with one out. Harvey responded by striking out Francisco Cervelli and Jordy Mercer to end the inning.
Overall, Harvey threw 102 pitches over six innings. It was his longest outing in over a month, and it was his second straight win. It might’ve been due to a weak Pirates lineup. It could be Harvey is getting back to becoming a reliable pitcher. Whatever it is, the Mets should take it right now.
The Mets will also take the seven runs they got tonight. The biggest source of those runs came from the three players who would be most affected by the return of Yoenis Cespedes – Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, and Curtis Granderson. Bruce showed signs of getting out of his May funk going 3-5 with a run, two doubles, and an RBI. Granderson, hitting lead-off with Michael Conforto getting the night off, had hit first three hit game of the season going 3-5 with a run, double, and an RBI. Duda homered in his second straight game, and third out of the last four games.
Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera also collected RBI hits in what was an easy 7-2 victory. Overall, the only thing that put a damper on the night was Terry Collins‘ handling of the bullpen. With a five run lead in the seventh, he turned to Paul Sewald for two innings making him unavailable again for a few days. It wasn’t until the ninth that he used Neil Ramirez, and Ramirez struggled enough to lead to Jerry Blevins having to warm up in yet another game.
Still, the Mets took two out of three in the series. It was a step in the right direction and another step towards .500. Sooner of later, the Mets are going to have to stop giving games away, and they are going to have to turn some of these series victories into sweeps. Still, it was a good win leaving the team on a good note as they head back to Citi Field.
Game Notes: This was the Mets first win on a Sunday since their first Sunday game of the season. For the second straight game, a Mets pitcher failed to get down a sacrifice bunt. Juan Lagares was the only Mets starter without a hit.
Well, Jacob deGrom went out there tonight and reminded everyone why he should be considered the Mets ace.With the bullpen on fumes and the team coming off two embarrassing losses to the Padres, deGrom went out there and played the part of the stopper.
deGrom became not only the first Mets starter to record an out in the eighth, he became the first Mets starter to throw a pitch in the ninth. He was in that position because he completely dominated the Pirates.
To put it in perspective, deGrom was 2-4 at the plate. He only had four fewer hits than he allowed. In his 8.1 innings, deGrom allowed just those six hits while walking one and striking out 10. If not for a mistake to Gregory Polanco in the fourth, it might’ve been a shutout.
On a night like this, deGrom didn’t need much help from his team. Still, the Mets gave him a ton of run support led by native son Neil Walker.
.@NeilWalker18 knows a thing or two about hitting home runs in Pittsburgh. #LGM pic.twitter.com/MfaC10P4d3
— New York Mets (@Mets) May 27, 2017
Walker was 3-5 with three runs, two homers, and four RBI. His RBI accounted for half the Mets offense on the night.
The first run the Mets scored came in the second with Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson hitting a pair of doubles off Pirates starter Chad Kuhl.
After Walker hit his first homer in the third, the Mets rallied again in the fourth. Jose Reyes tripled and scored on a Jay Bruce sacrifice fly. Walker followed this with his second homer of the game. He would be heard from again.
In the sixth, there were runners on first and second and two out due to Michael Conforto and Bruce earning walks off Pirates reliever Johnny Barbarto. Walker blooped a ball just past the out stretched hands of Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer to make it 6-1.
Duda followed with a bases clearing double to make it 8-1. With the double, Duda continued a hot stretch over the past few games where he’s hitting .500 with an OBP above that.
Almost as hot is Granderson. Over the last two weeks, he’s hitting .291/.395/.581. He added to those totals going 1-4 with a double, walk, and an RBI. Both Duda and Granderson need these hot streaks with Yoenis Cespedes playing his first rehab game today.
But tonight, that was about deGrom and Walker. Both players stepped up big when the Mets needed it the most.
Game Notes: Jerry Blevins warmed up in the eighth but did not appear in the game. Fernando Salas recorded the last two outs.
With the impending return of Yoenis Cespedes, the debate will begin to emerge over which Mets outfielder needs to go to the bench. Thankfully, that will not be Michael Conforto, not even against left-handed pitching. Instead, the discussion is between a pair of left-handed hitting right fielders who are in the last year of their contract.
If this decision was made in May, it would have been clear-cut. You play Jay Bruce. He was the best hitter on the team. However, he has stumbled in May. In the month of May, he has been eerily reminiscent of the player who struggles upon coming to the Mets hitting just .191/.282/.426 with four homers and 14 RBI. If Terry Collins is paying attention to this slump, this may just open the door for Curtis Granderson to play over Bruce.
While Granderson is typically a slow starter, he had a nightmare April leading many to question if he’s done at 36 years old. It’s May now, and Granderson is hitting much better. Now, when you hit .128/.174/.221 in April, that bar is absurdly low. And certainly, you can argue his hitting .232/.328/.518 with three homers and nine RBI does not merit a starting job. Still, there is an argument for Granderson over Bruce.
Even with his subpar May numbers, Granderson is having a better May. Whereas Bruce usually gets off to hot starts and cools off, Granderson starts out slow and improves as the season progress. Granderson is hot right now hitting .296/.387/.630 with two homers and four RBI over his last nine games. Between the two, Granderson is the much better right fielder. He also gives the Mets the option of playing him in center while Conforto plays in right.
No matter who Collins or the Mets front office decides to bench, it is going to be a tough decision that is going to lead to much double guessing. It may also be an issue with the team because these are two All Star right fielders who are playing for a contract. Sitting on the bench is going to damage their free agent value. There may be a work around benching either player.
It’s possible the Mets could bench Lucas Duda and play Bruce at first base. The justification for this is Duda has struggled since returning from the Disabled List. In his nine games back, Duda has hit just .154/.354/.231 with no homers or RBI. The OBP is where you want it to be, but Duda just looks lost when it comes to the rest of his game. This could be part of the normal peaks and valleys a player has during the season, or it could be part of the lingering effects of Duda’s elbow injury.
This creates its own problem as well. While there were some positive signs, Bruce looked raw at first base in the six games he played there. While there may not be a cause and effect, it should be noted Bruce’s season took a definitive turn when he played first base. Before playing first base, he was hitting .309/.387/.673 with six homers and 14 RBI in 14 games. In the 26 games since, he is hitting .216/.302/.431 with five homers and 16 RBI. There’s also the matter of Duda being an impending free agent himself. Certainly, he does not want to have any diminution of his free agent value by moving to the bench.
Right now, the Mets have a decision to make on which left-handed 30 home run impending free agent needs to go to the bench. There is no good answer to this conundrum. It’s a decision that is going to have far reaching implications on how the Mets ability to get back into the National League East race. There is still time for each player to distinguish themselves and take the decision out of the Mets’ hands similar to how Conforto has.
This is the type of question that makes or breaks seasons. Whenever the Mets have to make this decision, they need to make the right one.
It started early for the Mets. Steven Matz was injured before Opening Day, and the Mets again wondering what is really wrong with him. Seth Lugo pitched in the World Baseball Classic, partially tore his UCL, and he is going to try to rehab it rather than having Tommy John surgery. Indirectly, this led to Rafael Montero pitching like, well, Montero. It also led to a less than inspiring performance by Adam Wilk.
Noah Syndergaard is gone for an extended period of time with a torn lat. Matt Harvey has been suspended three games for failing to show up at the ballpark. Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda have not played in a few weeks, and there are just rumors that they are soon to return. Travis d’Arnaud is yet again on the disabled list himself, and as usual we are unaware when he can return. Once again, Asdrubal Cabrera has been hobbled in the early part of the season leading everyone to wonder when the Mets finally put him on the disabled list.
Jeurys Familia was suspended for the first few weeks of the season, and he was not sharp immediately upon his return. Addison Reed struggled in his adaption to closer and again in his transition to the eighth inning reliever. Fernando Salas just struggled, and Josh Smoker has probably struggled more than Reed and Salas combined.
Jose Reyes was hitting .095 midway through April. Curtis Granderson entered the month hitting just .128. Neil Walker is under the Mendoza Line against right-handed pitching, and he entered the month of May hitting just .195. Wilmer Flores cannot his right-handed pitching. Juan Lagares can’t hit any pitching.
The end result was the Mets losing six in a row and 10 of 11. Already, people were starting to wonder if this team was similar to the 1992 or the 2009 Mets teams. Despite all of this, the Mets are back at .500 and second place in the National League East. How did it happen?
Well, for starters young and under utilized players have stepped up. Michael Conforto went from the bench to one of the best hitters in baseball. For the second straight season, T.J. Rivera has taken complete advantage of an unexpected opportunity being given to him. Josh Edgin has become a dominant LOOGY in the bullpen. We have even seen Paul Sewald step up pitching terrifically after some initial hiccups.
Then there are the veterans who have had career best seasons so far. Jay Bruce is on base to put up career best numbers in every offensive category. Jerry Blevins has been used almost every game, and he is putting up better numbers than he did last year’s career best season for him. Rene Rivera is hitting over .300. Hansel Robles is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in 16 appearances.
More than there, the Mets have exhibited some professional pride. Reyes is hitting .282/.341/.564 with three doubles, a triple, two homers, nine RBI and a stolen base over his last 10 games. Granderson has hit .250/.368/.625 with three doubles, a homer, and four RBI over his last five games. Walker has hit .276/.364/.414 with four doubles and four RBI in the month of May.
In addition, the bullpen has been much better of late. Familia has had five straight scoreless outings. Reed has allowed just two hits with no runs in the month of May. Terry Collins has been more judicious in his use of Salas, and Salas has not allowed any runs in his last five appearances. With Blevins, Edgin, and Robles continuing their outstanding seasons, this has become the dominant bullpen everyone envisioned it would be to start the year.
With the combination of the resurgent veterans and the outstanding young player, the Mets are winning again. In the month of May, the Mets lead the majors in runs scored. They are fifth in the National League in homers. However, unlike last year, the Mets do not need homers to score runs. The Mets .320 team batting average and .517 slugging with runners in scoring position is second best in the majors, and its .419 OBP with runners in scoring position is the best in baseball.
Despite all the noise around the Mets, this team is playing its best baseball of the season. Once their pitching gets relatively healthy, and their current pitchers pitch close to their true talent levels, this team will once again be one of the best teams in all of baseball. Until then, this current group of Mets will make sure the Washington Nationals will be within shouting distance allowing the Mets to compete for the division.
So far, the following Mets have been chosen to wear the crown after a Mets win:
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Noah Syndergaard
- Jay Bruce
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Zack Wheeler
- Michael Conforto
- Jerry Blevins
- Jose Reyes
- T.J. Rivera
The 10 players wearing the crown are depicted here:
Jay III pic.twitter.com/WH15dctngd
— Meditations in Panic City (@MedInPanicCity) May 7, 2017
Looking over that photo, there is one thing that stands out – Jay Bruce is the only player to accompany the crown with a stately orange and blue king’s robe. Bruce is not only comfortable in New York, but he also wants to be its king.
If he keeps this up, he certainly will. Through his first 28 games, Bruce is hitting .291/.376/.609. If he continues this, all three would easily be career bests. He’s on pace to score 112 runs, hit 47 doubles, 50 homers, and 140 RBI. Those wouldn’t be just career bests, those numbers would amount to the best season a Mets position player has ever had.
Certainly, if he even comes close to that, he will forever be Mets royalty.
With voting opening, Michael Conforto‘s name does not appear on the All Star Game ballot. His name doesn’t appear because a team only has three outfielders listed, and the Mets Opening Day outfield of Yoenis Cespedes–Curtis Granderson–Jay Bruce is on there. Still, that doesn’t mean you still can’t vote for Conforto. In fact, you can and should write his name in.
To date, Conforto has had an outstanding year. Through his first 23 games this season, the newly minted leadoff hitter has hit .344/.421/.688 with seven homers and 16 RBI. He’s gone from a player the Mets needed to try to find playing time for to a player they cannot afford to take out of the lineup. He’s been one of the best outfielders in all of baseball.
Among National League outfielders with at least 70 at-bats, he is one of the top ranked players. His batting average, on base percentage. and slugging are second only to Bryce Harper. Again, his 183 wRC+ is second only to Harper. Same goes for his 189 OPS+. It should then come as no surprise that his 1.1 fWAR and 1.1 bWAR are also second to Harper. No matter what state you cite, the only rationale conclusion you can reach is Conforto is the second best outfielder in the National League.
Last year, he had suffered from the proverbial ‘Sophomore Slump” due to a wrist injury, benchings, and the struggles that typically ensue from both of these circumstances. Despite proving himself in Triple-A, the Mets still wouldn’t trust him over injured and struggling players. Rather than give him the opportunity to be the player he was, the Mets traded for Bruce. The failure to move Bruce in the offseason led to Conforto starting the year on the bench. Despite this, Conforto was ready to to step in when the Mets needed him most.
He’s played all three outfield positions, and he has played them well. With Granderson’s and Jose Reyes‘ struggles, he has provided the team with a lead-off hitter. With the injuries to Cespedes and Lucas Duda, he has provided his team with a great bat – a bat that is the second best in the National League. Conforto has been everything the Mets have needed and more.
In reality, the question shouldn’t be whether Conforto should be in the All Star Game, the question is when does everyone start inserting his name into MVP discussions. Yes, it is too soon for MVP discussions, and so at this point, we should focus on his being an All Star. With his name not being on the ballot, Mets fans need to step up and write-in his name.