Will Watson
Let’s start with two premises. The first is you can never have enough pitching. The second is the New York Mets starting pitching completely fell apart in 2025.
With that out of the way, we need to assess what the Mets have and act accordingly. Remember, just because things were bad last year, it doesn’t mean they’re automatically bad the next.
Right off the bat, Nolan McLean looked like a future ace. He burst onto the scene like Jacob deGrom did in 2014, and the hope is McLean improves in year two in the same way deGrom did (no one is saying McLean will be the Cy Young version of deGrom . . . yet).
Behind McLean is Kodai Senga. When healthy, he’s been untouchable. Before Pete Alonso’s throw, he was 7-3 with a 1.47 ERA while averaging nearly six innings per start.
He just wasn’t right after he returned from injury. We don’t know what happened, but the fair assumption is he can get back to the pitcher who has pitched at a near ace level in his career.
It was a tale of two halves for David Peterson. He went from an All-Star to a mess. Lost in last season was the fact he pitched far more innings than he ever had as a Major Leaguer.
In 2024, Peterson pitched 121.0 innings, which was a then career high. Through 127.0 innings in 2025, he was 7-4 with a 2.83 ERA. With him being so good, and the other pitchers either injured or unable to go deep into games, Carlos Mendoza pushed him during this stretch.
After that 127.0 mark, Peterson was 2-2 with an 8.42 ERA averaging under five innings per start. It’s fair to assume there was some fatigue involved. Certainly, we should expect him to be fresh to start the year, and with closer attention to his workload, he should be able to get through the year better.
Sean Manaea was injured to start 2025, and he never got fully healthy, and he never built up his stamina. After 25 pitches, his K/9 went from 10.00 to 5.25.
He didn’t have a spring training, and he rushed back to help the team. He pitched through pain, and he faltered. Fortunately, he’s feeling healthy now.
Whether he gets back to being the top of rotation pitcher who led the Mets to the 2024 NLCS remains to be seen. Still, he should be able to give you five quality innings at the back end of the rotation.
Then, there is Clay Holmes in his second year as a starter. He actually held up well through his first 17 starts going 8-4 with a 2.99 ERA even if his 4.42 FIP indicated a regression was coming, which did come.
After those 17 starts, Holmes was 4-4 with a 4.23 ERA. He does deserve credit for a big time start his last outing of the year. All told, we should see more stamina from him in 2026.
Right there, the Mets have a viable five man rotation.
- McLean
- Senga
- Peterson
- Manaea
- Holmes
That’s now where the pitching stops. Next up is Brandon Sproat. There were some positives in his four starts with a 2.80 FIP. His first two starts with the Mets were very good. He should start the year in Triple-A, and we will likely see a better version of him when needed.
The same can be said for Jonah Tong. He had some flashes but mostly struggled. Still, he has the stuff and the highest ceiling of any of the three Mets prospects called up at the end of last year.
Speaking of Mets young pitching, we all forgot about Christian Scott. He’s fully recovered from Tommy John, and he appears ready to go for spring training. He showed flashes in 2023 while dealing with a torn UCL, and we can hope he can take a step forward in 2026.
At the moment, that puts the Mets Major League ready pitching depth at eight starters. That increases to nine with the team signing Carl Edwards Jr. to a minor league deal.
Edwards has had success in the majors out of the pen, and he’s recently transitioned to a starter. He did have some success as a starter in the Mexican Leagues last season making this an interesting gamble.
Top pitching prospect Will Watson will likely start the year with Double-A Binghamton. That puts him closer to making it to the majors. With a breakout season, he may very well force his way there.
Same goes for Jack Wenninger. He pitched better than Watson in Double-A and appears much closer to the majors. It’s very possible we see him in Queens next year.
We saw Jonathon Pintaro make his Major League debut next year, and he could be among the first called up next year. We could see a Zach Thornton or Jonathan Santucci pop in 2026.
Point is, there’s real pitching depth here without the Mets making one move to add a starter this offseason. It’s prudent and practical to add more pitching because as we saw in 2025, you can never have enough pitching.
That said, despite the narratives being pushed on Mets fans, they have starting pitching. They’re very well poised to be successful in 2026, and we should see the starting pitching be a driving force of the 2026 season.
David Stearns’ New York Mets were worse in year two than they were in year one. They failed despite adding Juan Soto, which is just baffling.
Every fan and pundit is going to point to the starting pitching. Obviously, the starting pitching was a failure, but at some point, you have to actively say there’s only so much one man can do.
Right off the bat, Stearns made a massive mistake signing Frankie Montas instead of bringing back Luis Severino. Montas was a disaster, but he was also broken. It’s fair to question just how much of that was something that happened with the Mets, and whether the team physical missed something.
Looking at Severino, he was not good in 2025. He had a 1.0 WAR and a 92 ERA+. It’s possible he could have been better with the Mets, but based off what we saw, he was a below average pitcher whose strikeout rate dropped. Still, his 29 starts averaging 5.2 innings would have been more than welcome.
Aside from that mistake, Stearns had Kodai Senga and David Peterson returning to the rotation. He re-signed Sean Manaea, the ace from the 2024 staff. Right there, the Mets had as good as a top three as anyone in baseball.
Like with Montas, something either happened or was missed with Manaea. We looked at him as someone that could be an ace to someone battling through injury barely able to give you three quality innings. ‘
Senga was pitching at a Cy Young level. That was until Pete Alonso made one of his horrendous throws to first base leading to a Senga injury. After that throw, Senga went from a 1.47 ERA to a pitcher who had a 5.90 ERA over his last nine starts.
Peterson was great in the first half. He was an All-Star. Who knows what happened to him after July 20. After that start, he was 3-2 with a 6.34 ERA. The hope is it was the extra workload, but based on the missed injuries we saw with Montas and Manaea, a potential injury can’t be dismissed.
Joining that group in the rotation was Clay Holmes. Holmes had a good first year as a starter with a 114 ERA+. If starters didn’t drop like flies, he might’ve been able to be transitioned to the bullpen late in the season. Alas, that opportunity never arose.
Tylor Megill was quality starting pitching depth again. He had a 3.95 ERA over his 14 starts. Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John and will miss all of 2026.
Adding to the depth, Stearns signed Griffin Canning. He was a revelation of his 16 starts. At one point, he was on the outskirts of All-Star discussion, and he finished his season with a 107 ERA+ before he suffered a fluke ruptured ACL tear.
Look over that list again. In theory, the Opening Day rotation was supposed to be Manaea, Senga, Peterson, Montas, and Holmes. Behind them was Megill and Canning. That’s seven quality starters who should have been able to get you through the season.
Behind them, the Mets farm system did a great job developing Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong. McLean will enter next season as the ace, and Sproat should be in the conversation to join the Opening Day roster. Tong clearly needs more time in Triple-A.
Without making any trades, the Mets had 10 different starting pitchers that were capable of winning games. That is all even before we consider the Paul Blackburn disaster.
Sometimes you are just snakebitten. Obviously, there is a curse that is in the Citi Field bullpen. Either that, or the Mets need to address how they review physicals and keep pitchers healthy.
If Stearns goes into 2026 with this level of starting pitching depth, things will be better for the Mets next season. Stearns had a good philosophical approach to the staff, but he did not have the luck he had in 2025.
And before anyone starts, no, the Mets don’t need to go buck wild spending on free agent starters. The Opening Day rotation will have McLean, Peterson, Manaea, Senga, and Holmes. That is great. ‘
Behind that group, they will have Sproat and Tong ready to go. Possibly, Will Watson will be ready at some point in 2026. It would be nice to see if they can bring back Canning.
Think about this for a second. Even with the Montas blunder, Stearns did enough last offseason to build a formidable rotation for 2026. He did his job very well. He just now needs to figure out the health and possibly a way to better keep these pitchers healthy.