Tom Seaver
Terry Collins grew up watching baseball in an era when you had batting average, homeruns, and RBI to judge hitters. There was W-L record, ERA, and strikeouts to judge pitchers. Back then, utilizing the eye test was justifiable as there was no way to really quantify all you are seeing.
It’s important to keep this in mind when analyzing Terry Collins’ opinions on advanced statistics:
It’s become a young man’s game, especially with all of the technology stuff you’ve got to be involved in. I’m not very good at it. I don’t enjoy it like other people do. I’m not going to sit here and look at all of these [expletive] numbers and try to predict this guy is going to be a great player. OPS this. OPS that. GPS. LCSs. DSDs. You know who has good numbers? Good [expletive] players.
This quote reminds me of when I talk baseball with my Dad. He’s actually two years older than Terry Collins.
Whenever I talk to my Dad about baseball, I sometimes refer to advanced statistics. I will refer to WAR, FIP, UZR, etc. When I refer to them, he looks at me incredulously. He doesn’t know what they are. He doesn’t understand them. He asks me how to calculate them. I will give him a cursory explanation, but I can’t give him the exact formula. He can’t sit down and calculate it with his calculator. He’d rather talk about the statistics in which he’s more conversant.
The strange thing is I became interested in part due to my Dad. Growing up, he always told me to take W-L record with a grain of salt. He told me OBP was more important than batting average. He told me this in the 80’s! Back then merely suggesting that was heresy.
Now, we’re well beyond OBP and ERA being the advanced statistics to analyze. In many ways, Terry Collins is right. The game of baseball has passed them by. These newfangled statistics really are for a younger generation. Yet, we can all still enjoy baseball in our own way.
We don’t really need advanced statistics to tell us Matt Harvey is a really good pitcher. Yes, advanced statistics will support that conclusion. I love sitting there and watching games with my Dad. I remember in 2013 when he said that he expected Matt Harvey to throw a no-hitter every time he goes out to pitch. One night, we were there when it almost happened.
I love hearing my Dad tell me about how impossibly great Tom Seaver was. I love hearing him tell me that despite that he wanted Jerry Koosman on the mound for a big game.
So yes, how we analyze the game has changed since my Dad was a kid. Not to mention that teams are even trained differently from the days of old, with new technology and tools like the baseball swing trainer V2 and others available for anyone who aspires to be a solid player. It still doesn’t mean he doesn’t know a great player when he sees one. It doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a wealth of knowledge when it comes to the game of baseball. It doesn’t mean I don’t love talking baseball with him.
There will come a time when there are new statistics I won’t understand. I’ll be too old and set in my ways to learn the new ones. My son will roll his eyes at me when I refer to someone’s WAR or UZR. There’s going to be new statistics that will make all I think I know obsolete. That’s fine as long as we’re talking baseball (hopefully about his career). That’s all that matters.
No matter what happens, no matter what new statistics arise, the game never passes you by. As long as there are fathers and sons talking baseball, the game will belong to each and every generation. It will be a shared experience.
With that said, hopefully one day, my son will be able to explain to me what LCS and DSD is before I begin ignoring all thess newfangled statistics.
When David Wright came up in 2004, we thought every year was going to be like last year. Much like this year, we anticipated that each and every year Wright manned third base, the Mets would contend for a World Series.
As we know, it didn’t happen that way. A lot went wrong. The Mets came ever so close in 2006. They collapsed in 2007 and 2008. A poorly designed outfield, poor personnel decisions, and financial crisis ensued. Then, as things began to turn around, Wright injured his hamstring. Then he was diagnosed with spinal stenosis. Last year was his first trip to the World Series. This year may be his last year as a key contributor on a World Series team.
It could also be Wright’s last year to build his Hall of Fame credentials.
Third base is the least represented position in the Hall of Fame. Accordingly, standards are high to enter the Hall of Fame as a third baseman. The average of 13 Hall of Famers at the position had a career WAR of 67.5, a WAR7 (best seven years combined) of 42.7, and a JAWS of 55.1. Looking at the stats, Wright falls short. His career WAR is 50.1. His WAR7 is 40.0. His JAWS is 45.1. For a player that Mets fans believed would be a Hall of Famer, he now has an uphill climb.
WAR7
Looking at theses factors, it’s presumably easiest for Wright to increase his WAR7. To do so, he would need to have one year where he accumulates 2.7 more WAR that his seventh best season. Here are his seven best WAR seasons:
- 2007 – 8.3
- 2012 – 7.0
- 2008 – 6.8
- 2013 – 5.9
- 2005 – 4.8
- 2006 – 4.1
- 2009 – 3.2
For Wright to put his WAR7 within range, he would need to have one more season that is 5.9 or better. Wright last did that in 2013. That year Wright only played on 112 games. He hit .307/.390/.514 with 18 homers and 58 RBI. His 156 OPS+ was the best of his career. In that season, Wright missed a significant amount of time with a strained hamstring. Sounds just like his April 2015 hamstring injury that wouldn’t heal.
The Mets are hopeful that Wright can play 130 games in 2016. Judging from Wright’s 2013 season, it is certainly possible that Wright can have a 5.9 season again. A better and much stronger Mets lineup will assist him in that task.
Cumulative WAR
Going into the 2016 season, Wright has a career WAR of 55.1, which is presumably 12.4 behind the 67.5 career WAR he would need to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame.
This is where things may get a little tricky for Wright’s chances. Don Mattingly had back problems, and his once promising Hall of Fame career was over at 34. Lenny Dykstra had spinal stenosis, and his career was over at 33. David Wright is entering his age 33 season. Based on other player’s careers, he’s near the end of his career. If Wright plays past his age 34 season, he will be in uncharted territory.
Naturally, it is safe to assume Wright will not have a 12.4 WAR season thereby cementing his Hall of Fame case. To do that, Wright would have to match Babe Ruth‘s 1927 season when he hit 60 homeruns. No, if Wright is going to accumulate the needed 12.4 WAR, he’s going to have to remain healthy and effective. He’s going to have to manage his spinal stenosis.
Wright is currently signed until 2020. There are $90 million reasons why Wright will do all he can to finish that contract.
Presuming Wright does do that, he has five more years left in his career. In order to attain the necessary 12.4 additional WAR, Wright will have to average a 2.5 WAR a year for those five seasons.
In 2014, Wright played 134 games, and he was a 2.7 WAR player. In that season, he hit .269/.324/.374 with eight homers and 63 RBI. If Wright manages his back, and his treatments are effective, seasons like this over the next five years are certainly attainable.
Other Criteria
As Wright’s peak is over, there really isn’t anything he can do to improve his JAWS. With that in mind, we need to look at other areas that would improve Wright’s Hall of Fame case.
Unfortunately, he will be unable to surpass Mike Schmidt‘s 548 homeruns or even reach the once magic number 500 homeruns. He won’t catch Chipper Jones‘ 1,623 RBI. He won’t catch Brooks Robinson‘s 16 Gold Gloves at third base. It does not appear Wright will reach 3,000 hits as he would need to average 250 hits over the next five years to reach that number. No, it seems like the only thing that will help Wright is the narrative.
The best thing going for Wright is the fact that he will most likely play his entire career as a Met. Aside from Tom Seaver, Wright is making a case as the best player to ever play for the Mets. Here are his Mets rankings:
- Games Played – Second (307 behind Ed Kranepool)
- Runs – First
- Hits – First
- Doubles – First
- Homeruns – Second (17 behind Darryl Strawberry)
- RBI – First
In addition, Wright’s 50.1 WAR with the Mets is the second most any player has accumulated with the Mets; the most accumulated by any Mets position player. Even with Mike Piazza‘s recent election to the Hall of Fame, it appears that Wright is the team’s best position player.
So overall, Wright still has a legitimate shot at the Hall of Fame. His name will be atop all the major offensive catergories. His WAR and other catergories will put him on the cusp of election. A strong 2016 will get him a lot closer to those goals.
Winning a World Series in 2016 can’t hurt either.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
There are two things that are usually true about my birthday: (1) it always rains on my birthday; and (2) the Mets are not usually playing at home on my birthday. When the Mets are home on my birthday, the rain usually wrecks havoc with the Mets home game.
I was thinking about this when the Mets announced Mike Piazza Weekend. I’m assuming that entire weekend will be sold out. I know it was difficult getting good seats to the Saturday night retirement ceremony. As an aside, I would’ve retired Mike Piazza‘s #31 on July 31st instead of the 30th. Not a big deal, but just a quirk I noticed that will eventually drive either me or everyone else around me to a mental institution. I digress. It’s going to be awesome to see the fans come out the entire weekend. It’s a testament to how much we love Piazza and how good the 2016 Mets will be.
The entire weekend will be a celebration of Mike Piazza and the current Mets team. It’s a far cry from what Tom Seaver received when he had his Tom Seaver Night the year he was inducted into the Hall of Fame.
There are birthdays we have that always stand out in your mind, and August 12, 1992 is one of them. I got one of those newfangled CD players. I got to rock out to such musical visionaries as C&C Music Factory. Oh and by the way, it rained. Boy oh boy did it rain. Water was getting into the house. Seriously, 100 times out of 100 they call this game. However, there was zero chance the Mets were going to call this game because it was Tom Seaver Hall of Fame night. It was the night Seaver was going to receive his Hall of Fame ring in a pregame ceremony.
I know I was the only one in my family who wanted to go, but guess what; it was my birthday so we went. Seriously, my mother must’ve tried to talk me out of it like 41 times. Eventually, we went out. I remember on the way to Shea Stadium, the windshield wipers were at their highest setting, but it didn’t matter.
We made it to Shea Stadium in time for the ceremony. The announced attendance was 20,488. During the ceremony, there must’ve been a couple of thousand, and most of them were in the back rows of the Lodge and Mezzanine. The fans were mostly driven away by the rain. They were also driven away by a terrible Mets team. You might also remember them as The Worst Team Money Could Buy.
On that night, they were Terrific. In his third career start, Eric Hillman pitched eight scoreless innings against the hated Pirates. That night Hillman was every bit the 6’10” giant we thought he could be. That night at least Seaver was honored with a great pitching performance because he certainly wasn’t honored with the type of fan turnout he deserved.
Piazza won’t have that problem. Piazza will get three straight sell-outs and a good Mets team. I’m sure not even the rain could keep people away. I know it won’t stop me.
As we have seen throughout their history, the media has had a profound impact on the Mets. We first saw it with Dick Young’s columns leading to Tom Seaver demanding a trade. There were the days of Mike and the Mad Dog bringing Mike Piazza to the Mets. Dick Young has since passed, Mad Dog Chris Russo is on Sirius XM, and Mike Francesca has announced he’s leaving WFAN in 2017.
It appears the torch has already been passed to Mike Vaccaro. If you’re asking who Mike Vaccaro is right now, newspapers are in bigger trouble than advertised. With that said, Mike Vaccaro is the preeminent sports columnist in New York. A July column of his secured his place amongst the greats.
Back in July 2015, Mets fans were subjected to Eric Campbell and John Mayberry, Jr. hitting the in the middle of the lineup. Mets fans were clamoring for a trade. Sandy Alderson mocked Mets fans referring to New York as “Panic City.” Mike Vaccaro called it what it really was, “Malpractice.”
He kept the heat on up until the trade deadline. He questioned if the front office was a fraud. He called the lineup an indictment of Sandy Alderson. He called the Mets willfully ignorant. He said the Mets were not committed to making the team better. He kept the heat on the Mets. He wasn’t saying anything different than every Mets fan was at the time. It’s one thing for Mets fans to hoot and holler on Twitter. It’s another thing for a respected columnist to say it.
The Mets began a relative flurry of trades before the non-waiver trade deadline acquiring Tyler Clippard, Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, and Yoenis Cespedes. Whether you thought the trades were good, bad, or ugly, this series of trades changed the narrative about the Mets. I’m sure a number of factors went into those decisions, but I’ll never discount the public pressure. I’ll always appreciate that Mike Vaccaro for being the lead voice. Anytime you have a cause, no matter how relatively insignificant, it’s always beneficial to have a well respected voice leading the way.
By the way, when you were upset with the offseason, so was Mike Vaccaro. He called out the Wilpons for being cheap. Again, he said exactly what you and I were thinking. Again, the public pressure was ratcheted up. Then it happened. The Mets re-signed Yoenis Cespedes. They expanded payroll to make it commensurate with revenues and the market in which they play. In the end, that’s all that Mets fans were asking of ownership.
We can all parse through who gets credit for all of this, and I’m sure there’s enough credit to spread around to everyone. However, I don’t think anything resonated quite like the Malpractice column. At least to me, it was a seminal moment.
A large part of Dick Young’s legacy was his columns which caused Seaver to demand a trade. With it came some awful baseball and an empty Shea Stadium. Part of Mike Francesca’s legacy was the Mike Piazza trade, and by extension, Piazza entering the Hall of Fame as a Met. Right now, part of Mike Vaccaro’s legacy is Yoenis Cespedes being a Met. The rest of that story is yet to be written. When it is written by Mike Vaccaro, it will be a must read.
In any event, Yoenis Cespedes is still a Met, and for that, I say, “Thank you Mike Vaccaro.”
There was a long 23 year wait between the induction of Tom Seaver and the induction of Mike Piazza to the Hall of Fame. While I’m still overjoyed at Piazza entering the Hall of Fame as a Met, I’m curious if the Mets will have to wait another 23 years for another one of their players to go in as a Met.
Looking over the future years’ ballots, there are some former Met players like Jason Isringhausen eligible. However, it’s not likely any of them will be elected. Furthermore, if they are elected, they will most likely not be inducted as a Met. Therefore, if we don’t want to wait another 23 years, we’re going to have to look at current players; preferably those towards the end of their careers. As it so happens, it has been rumored Carlos Beltran may retire at the end of the year. That would mean he could be inducted anywhere between 2022 – 2032. That would mean the next possible Mets Hall of Famer would be within the next six to 16 years.
However, I’m getting ahead of myself here. The first question is whether or not Beltran is a Hall of Famer. I’d argue he is.
For his career, Beltran has hit .280/.355/.490 with 392 homers while playing the majority of his career at a premium defensive position. In an average season, he hits 28 homers and 101 RBI. He’s part of the 300/300 club. He’s won the Rookie of the Year, been an eight time All Star, and won three Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. All of this is indicative of a Hall of Fame career.
The advanced stats also suggest he has a good case. On average, a Hall of Field centerfielder has a 70.4 WAR, 44.0 WAR7 (best seven seasons WAR combined), and a 57.2 JAWS score. Beltran right now is at 68.4/44.3/56.4. Essentially, his peak years were Hall of Fame worthy, and he’s right on the cusp of playing his entire career at a Hall of Fame level.
Even if he falls short in a few areas, he’s bound to get credit for being an incredible postseason player. He has hit .332/.441/.674 in the postseason. Strikeout or not, he’s amongst the greatest postseason performers in major league history. If he retires without playing a game this season, he’s a Hall of Famer.
The next question is what hat will he wear. That’s not as clear cut. Essentially, Beltran will have three options: (1) Royals; (2) Mets; or (3) no affiliation. It’s a tough decision. He played eight years each for the Royals and Mets, playing only 44 games more with the Mets. Overall, he was a better player with the Mets.
He hit .280/.369/.500 with 149 homers as a Met as opposed to .287/.352/.483 with 123 homers as a Royal. He won all of his Gold Gloves as a Met, and he appeared in five of his eight All Star Games as a Met. He accumulated 31.3 WAR with the Mets and 24.7 WAR with the Royals. However, you can’t discount the potential emotional tug he may feel towards the team that drafted him. A place he won his Rookie of the Year Award.
It all got me thinking. Piazza chose the Mets, in part, due to his relationship with the fans. Like Piazza, Beltran initially had a rocky relationship with Mets fans getting booed in 2005. However, even with the strikeout, I believe things got better. He received cheers and standing ovations in his last home game as a Met. He noticed them too. He Was cheered loudly at the 2013 All Star Game during introductions, and that was while wearing a Cardinals uniform. Lastly, but more importantly, Beltran said he could see himself entering the Hall of Fame as a Met.
Like Piazza, Beltran was a great Met. Like Piazza, Beltran deserves induction into the Hall of Fame. When that day comes, I hope Beltran is like Piazza, and he enters the Hall of Fame as a Met.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
With the 2016 Hall of Fame class being announced yesterday, it’s hard to believe the Mets will have two Hall of Famers. Understandably and rightfully so, 2016 will be the year for the Mets to honor Mike Piazza. However, it’s high time the Mets also honor Tom Seaver.
Depending on your age, you identify the Mets with a particular player. Some will pick Piazza. Younger fans will pick David Wright. Many will pick any one of the players from the 1986 Mets. Part of this is a recency bias. Another part of this is the failure of the Mets organization to forever hold out Tom Seaver, The Franchise, as the Mets singular franchise player.
Go to other big league stadiums, particularly the new ones. The Yankees have Monument Park. In Monument Park, the Yankees have paid special tribute to five Yankees including Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. The Giants have a statue of Willie Mays. The Phillies have one for Mike Schmidt. The list goes on and on. The Mets? They only have a special honor for Jackie Robinson.
Walk around Citi Field. There’s no special designation for Seaver. Yes, his number is retired. His retired number also hangs on the same wall as Jackie Robinson. There needs to be a Tom Seaver statue. The main reason is all Mets fans need to know who he was. For some reason, Seaver isn’t spoken about in the historical context as he should. Part of the reason could be the team he represents.
This isn’t an issue of the Mets finances. I’m not mocking the Mets here for not having enough money to purchase a statue. The Mets had the money to build Citi Field. It’s an issue or priorities. They never prioritized honoring Seaver. I still don’t understand why.
Every Mets fan needs to see Seaver on their way into Citi Field. Kids should be asking their parents and grandparents about Seaver. They should hear stories like I did from my father. Stories about how he was nicknamed The Franchise because he turned the Mets around. They need to hear about “The Imperfect Game.” They need to hear stories about the Miracle Mets. They should hear about how Seaver used his legs so much while he was pitching he got dirt on his knee.
There’s no better place to tell these stories than at the ballpark. It’s where my father told me about them. I hope one day he’ll get to tell my son those stories too. I’d love for my son to see the statute and ask, “Who’s Tom Seaver?” I’ll just then sit back as my Dad tells him the same stories he told me.
This is what we’re missing with the Seaver statue. We’re missing the history not only of the Mets, but also baseball. Sure, I look forward to my Dad telling my son about how he grew up a Brooklyn Dodger fan, and Jackie Robinson was his favorite player because he ran pigeon-toed just like my Dad did. It’ll be awesome, but it’s also a problem. My son will ask the Jackie Robinson but not the Tom Seaver question on his way into the ballpark.
The Mets have been around for 54 years and have developed their own rich history. It’s time to properly honor it with a Seaver statute. Then maybe one day we can have a Piazza statute when I can regale my son and hopefully grandson in the future with stories like the trade bringing him to the Mets, him being the greatest hitting catcher ever, and the post 9/11 homerun. Sure, I’ll relate those stories anyway because they’re great stories. However, I want my son to ask me about them. A statue honoring the Mets Hall of Famers would go a long way in that regard.
It’s time to honor Tom Seaver. It’s time to build him his statue. It’s not just for him, but for all Mets fans. The ones that saw him play and the ones not yet born. The a Mets need to honor their history now and set it in bronze.
Seeing how there were weird and unnecessary discussion regarding the hat which Mike Piazza will select for his Hall of Fame plaque, let’s just end the next discussion before it starts. The Mets will retire Piazza’s # 31.
The Mets had him close out Shea with Tom Seaver. He opened Citi Field again with Seaver recreating the moment at Shea Stadium. He was inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame. He threw out the first pitch in the first World Series game at Citi Field. He’s obviously respected by the entire Mets organization. Once Piazza is elected to the Hall of Fame, he should get his number retired by the Mets. It’s the next step in a logical process.
I don’t understand why anyone would question if Piazza’s number will be retired after he’s elected to the Hall of Fame. You can ask why it wasn’t retired sooner, but to question if it’ll be retired at all makes no sense. If you want to have a debate at all, question how that number will appear on that wall.
Will they go with the black uniforms most synonymous with those Mets teams? Will they go with the non-pinstriped jersey? If they go with the pinstriped jersey to keep it homogenous, will they include the drop shadow on the jersey number? This is the real question; not whether or not Piazza’s number will be retired.
Piazza’s number will be retired.
Honestly, I don’t know of a more underrated and under appreciated great player than Tom Seaver. He was bafflingly omitted from the All Century Team. In his stead were players like Nolan Ryan. Another inane fan vote named Sandy Koufax over Seaver as part of the Franchise Four Living Legends.
Seaver doesn’t get the respect he’s due. He could very well be the best right handed pitcher of all time. He’s inarguably a top five pitcher, especially when you omit those who have cheated. Yet, Seaver can’t get a statue in front of Citi Field. He isn’t mentioned among the best of the best. The fans don’t see it. This tells me he’s been largely forgotten. I say largely because he does get mentioned every time this year as he is still the player who was elected to the Hall of Fame with the highest percentage.
In 1992, Seaver received 98.84% of the vote. It means each year, he’s necessarily mentioned as the player elected with the highest percentage of the vote. Every year, Mets fans can puff their chests out in pride. Now, it seems like that is all in jeopardy:
Including the partial ballots at the bottom of the sheet, Griffey is 150/150. Needs 295 of the est. 300 remaining to break Seaver's record.
— Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs) January 3, 2016
Ken Griffey, Jr. has received 100% of the vote from those writers who have published their ballots thus far. He’s a legitimate threat to be the first unanimously elected player in the Hall of Fame. In many ways, it’s a sign of progress. I’m selfish. I hope he doesn’t get it. I hope six writers find absurd reasons to omit Griffey’s name from the ballot.
The reason is simple. I’m a Mets fan that believes Seaver never got his due. I believe the fan votes establish that. A Mets ownership that refuses to properly honor him with a statue establishes that. The only real thing that keeps Seaver in the baseball public consciousness is his Hall of Fame tally.
Honestly, I care more about this than Mike Piazza getting elected this year. He will get in eventually. He will always be remembered as the greatest hitting catcher and the post 9/11 home run. As a Mets fan, I’m not worried about Piazza’s legacy.
I am about Seaver, the greatest Met there ever was. Perhaps, the greatest Met that ever will be. The man who is one of the five greatest pitchers ever. He’s never gotten his due, except when it came to Hall of Fame voting. It’s the only time we hear about him. I shouldn’t have to hope voters do the wrong thing, but I do.
For the sake of Seaver’s legacy, I hope six voters do the wrong thing and don’t vote for Griffey.
Before looking at my ballot, please keep in mind that the IBWAA already elected players on the current ballot. This includes Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell I would’ve voted for them because I don’t play the steroids guessing game.
I also would’ve voted for Tim Raines, but he already received the necessary 75% from the IBWAA. Raines was the second best lead off hitter of all time, and frankly I haven’t seen a good reason to withhold your vote for him. Furthermore, even if the vote doesn’t count towards the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, I didn’t want to incur the wrath of Jonah Keri.
As a reminder, here are the criteria I use in Hall of Fame voting. As such, I did not vote for Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens. With that said, here are the players on my ballot:
Junior might’ve been the best player in my lifetime, at least when he was launching home runs in the old Kingdome. When you look at his WAR, he’s only behind Willie Mays, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, and Mickey Mantle. If you’re the fifth best ever at a position, you deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.
The average Hall of Fame SS has a career WAR of 66.7, a peak WAR (also known as WAR7) of 42.8, and a JAWS score of 54.7. Trammell’s numbers are 70.4/44.6/57.5. Translation, he’s one of the top SS in major league history. Keep in mind, he is a .285/.352/.415 career hitter with four Gold Gloves, six All Star Game appearances, and three Silver Sluggers.
On top of that, he hit .333/.404/.588 in the postseason. He was also the 1984 World Series MVP. It’s his last year on the ballot. He deserves to be elected.
The narrative on Walker is he’s a Coors Field creation. I get it because he hit an amazing .381/.462/.710 at Coors Field. Those are insane numbers.
Look at it this way. Walker has hit .278/.370/.495 on the road in his career. In his six years with the Expos at the beginning of his career, he hit .281/.357/.483. Reggie Jackson, who was one of the top RF all time, hit .262/.356/.490. On top of this, Walker was a five time All Star with seven Gold Gloves and two Silver Sluggers. He was the 1997 NL MVP. If you’re comparable to Reggie Jackson, you’re a Hall of Famer.
If you look over Kent’s career, his WAR, WAR7, or JAWS doesn’t match-up. The average for second baseman is 69.3/44.4/56.9. Kent was only 55.2/35.6/45.4. He fell short on those terms, but I voted for him anyway.
The issue is Kent was not a good defensive player, but he was a terrific hitter. Amongst second baseman, he’s hit the most homeruns, fourth most doubles, third highest RBI, and the second highest slugging percentage. Overall, he was a .290/.356/.500 hitter with 377 homeruns. He was the second best offensive second baseman to Rogers Hornsby. To me, being the second best offensively at his position was barely sufficient for me to vote for him.
Look, I think postseason excellence should be considered in Hall of Fame voting. Schilling was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA, a 0.968 WHIP, and a World Series MVP. Bloody sock or not, that is as impressive as it gets.
With that said, I didn’t vote for Schilling due to his postseason success. I voted for him due to his regular season success. Schilling was 216-146 with a 3.46 ERA. 1.137 WHIP, a 8.6 K/9, and a 4.38 K/BB ratio. His K/BB is second best all time. His stats are good enough for a 127 ERA+, which is the same as Tom Seaver. His WAR is 79.9, which is higher than the average WAR for a Hall of Fame pitcher.
Postseason success or not, Curt Schilling is a Hall of Famer.
Speaking of career WAR, Mussina’s career WAR of 83.0 is actually higher than Schilling’s.
Mussina was 270-153 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.192 WHIP. Those are remarkable numbers considering he pitched his entire career in the AL East during the steroid era. It’s unsurprising he would have an ERA+ of 123. That’s better than Juan Marichal and Nolan Ryan. Mussina bomgs in the Hall of Fame.
Other Notables
I didn’t vote for Edgar, who is a career .312/.418/.515 hitter. My vote for him only partially had to do with him being a DH.
I do believe there is room for a DH to be in the Hall of Fame. No matter how they are characterized, there are two right now: Frank Thomas and Paul Molitor. As these are the only two DH’s in the Hall of Fame, I’m judging Edgar against the two of them.
Edgar had a 147 OPS+, 147 wRC+, .415 wOBA, and a 68.3 WAR.
Thomas had a 156 OPS+, 154 wRC+, .416 wOBA, and a 73.7 WAR.
Molitor had a 122 OPS+, 122 wRC+, .361 wOBA, and a 75.4 WAR.
Now, Thomas and Molitor had the magic numbers. Thomas hit over 500 homeruns. Molitor had over 3,000 hits. Now, this isn’t dispositive, but it counts for something. Molitor also has postseason success hitting .368/.415/.615. He won the 1993 World Series MVP.
I bring this up because Edgar was a better hitter. Every stat but WAR is in Edgar’s favor. Edgar averaged a 3.79 WAR per year to Molitor’s 3.59 per year, so in that respect Edgar is again better. However, by no measure is Edgar better than Thomas. Thomas is better than Edgar in every stat.
Now, normally, I would say Edgar falls in line between Thomas and Molitor, so let him in. However, we’ve only had the DH since 1973. That’s only 42 years, or 27 years (10 year career with five year waiting period) of DH’s even being eligible for the Hall of Fame. With that in mind, I look at Thomas, and not the mean, as the standard.
No, I don’t think it’ll be a travesty if Edgar is elected to the Hall of Fame. Over time as I see better arguments for his inclusion, I may change my mind. However, at this time I think Edgar falls just short for me.
In response to an anticipated counter-argument, no, I don’t think it’s hypocritical that I voted for Kent due to his bat. While I do think defense should count, I have Kent credit for being the second best offensive second baseman ever. As a DH, all Edgar does is hit. Using the same standards, he would have to be the second best hitter ever. He’s clearly not that.
So for right now, I left Edgar off my ballot.
Billy Wagner
I’ll readily admit I’m a fan of Billy Wagner. I respect him. He was awesome. You should read up on him to learn about his perseverance. I really wanted to vote for him, but I didn’t.
Sure, there are amazing stats in his favor. Wagner has the most ever saves for a left handed pitcher. He has a career 2.31 ERA, 0.998 WHIP, and a 11.9 K/9. They are impressive numbers. What’s not impressive is his 28.1 career WAR. That’s lower than Tom Gordon, who is off the ballot, and Lee Smith, who last year received 29.9% in the voting last year.
Overall, I wanted to vote for Wagner on a personal level. However, when the people who are better than you aren’t in the Hall, you shouldn’t be either.
Trevor Hoffman
This was an easy name to leave off the ballot. Looking over the career stats, the only thing Hoffman has over Wagner is his saves total.
Like Wagner, Hoffman’s WAR falls short. Hoffman’s WAR was 28.4. Essentially, you’d be voting for him because he had the highest save total ever when he retired. If that wasn’t good enough for Lee Smith, it shouldn’t be enough for Trevor Hoffman.
Synopsis
Overall, even if this doesn’t count towards the BBWAA vote, I took this seriously, and I tried to justify my votes. Admittedly, Kent was my weakest vote. I still think someone could change my mind on Edgar. I don’t see myself voting for a reliever until Mariano Rivera hits the ballot.
In case you missed it, the Mets are having a Bobblehead giveaway. You just need to re-tweet the Tweet and vote for the player you want:
RT to enter to win a bobblehead of the player that wins the poll below! #Mets #PickAPrize https://t.co/0K3M6ip6Bt
— New York Mets (@Mets) November 23, 2015
David Wright is crushing Tom Seaver with 65% of the vote. Seriously? I know it’s a popularity contest, but there is no way you should want a bobblehead of Wright over Seaver. Seaver is the greatest Met ever. He just might be the greatest right hand pitcher of all time. There should not be any Met more popular than him.
Frankly, the result of this poll is embarrassing to Mets fans. It shows we can’t respect what little history we have. It’s a shame.