Taijuan Walker
For two nights in a row, J.D. Davis made errors which cost the New York Mets dearly. In back-to-back nights, his defense was a direct cause of Taijuan Walker and David Peterson being unable to navigate through five innings.
The problems with Davis at third are multi-faceted. He sometimes has difficulty hitting balls hit right at him. He doesn’t have range. While he has a strong arm, he seemingly has the yips where he is taking multiple steps before releasing the ball.
Honestly, this is a player who is crossed up right now, and it is an adventure when he is out there. Right now, his play is on par with Todd Hundley in left field or Mike Piazza at first base. Put another way, the Mets are putting a player in a position to fail, and despite Davis’ best efforts, he’s failing miserably.
This is not a direct reflection on the effort. We all saw the reports of Davis working with Gary Disarcina and Francisco Lindor. There is really nothing to doubt the effort. That said, there is every reason to doubt he can play third base or any position.
Since joining the Mets in 2019, Davis has a -19 DRS at third base. That is the worst at the position by a significant margin. In fact, on just his play at third base alone, he’s the fifth worst defender in the majors. When you include his -9 DRS in left field, he surpasses Jurickson Profar as the worst fielder in all the majors.
The Mets were attempting to hide him at third, and they thought putting him next to Lindor would help. Seeing him in action this year and over the past three years, it’s not working. It can’t work.
Also, keep in mind, the Mets are not just trying to hide Davis’ glove. Because they refused to make the hard decisions, they put Pete Alonso at first pushing Dominic Smith to left field. That put Brandon Nimmo to center. Of all those moves, Nimmo in center seems to be the only one working well. That’s the Mets getting lucky.
The Smith in left field is another factor. The Mets left side defense is atrocious. He and Davis combined are working to neutralize Lindor. Honestly, what is the point of getting Lindor if you’re going to surround him by terrible defenders? That’s like putting a great sound system in a Ford Pinto.
The bigger problem is the Mets pitching staff. We saw it with Walker and Peterson, and we will see it with Marcus Stroman. In fact, we will also see it with Jacob deGrom. The Mets have a ground ball pitching staff. That issue will further compound it self when Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard return from the IL.
Overall, the Mets have built a team based on ground ball pitching. That is why you could believe you can get away with Smith in left and Nimmo in left. That’s all well and good. However, you can’t assemble a ground ball staff and put literally take the worst defensive third baseman in the majors and make him the starter.
The Mets decision is compounded by the fact they have Luis Guillorme, who is a great defender. We also see Guillorme is hitting to start the season. He’s a grinder who is just never going to give up. Case-in-point is Guillorme’s at-bat last night. The Mets were down 12 with two outs in the ninth, and he got a base hit after battling in a seven pitch at-bat.
Overall, when you look at how the Mets built this team, Davis cannot start. When you look at how mightily, he’s struggling, Davis cannot start. When you see his numbers over the past three years, Davis cannot start. When you see the other options available, Davis cannot start.
Yes, this is getting redundant, but then again, so is the Mets insistence on trying to make Davis an everyday player. They tried. Davis tried. It’s not working, and they are putting an entire season at risk by doing so. It’s time to make Davis the strong bench player he was always meant to be and allow Guillorme and/or Jonathan Villar play in his stead.
After the rain-out yesterday, the New York Mets started Taijuan Walker, who was great for four innings. For the second straight start, Walker’s velocity was up, and he was throwing strikes.
Walker got into trouble three times. In the second, Alec Bohm led off the inning with a double, but Walker limited the Philadelphia Phillies to just one run. In the fourth, it was Bohm again who started a rally; this time drawing a one out walk. Didi Gregorius would follow with a single, but Walker got out of the inning by inducing Jean Segura to hit into an inning ending double play. The third time would happen in the fourth, but by that time, the Mets already had a lead.
4️⃣-6️⃣-3️⃣. ? #LGM pic.twitter.com/HeUJRzpuNG
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 13, 2021
Walker needed to get out of those jams too because the Mets reconfigured line-up still wasn’t scoring many runs or creating many opportunities. We were going to see it the other day, but we officially saw Michael Conforto dropped to sixth in the order with Dominic Smith and Jeff McNeil moving up to third and fifth respectively.
In the first, it looked like genius. As is usual, Brandon Nimmo would lead-off the game with a walk. He would then come home to score when Dominic Smith hit a one out two run homer against Phillies Chase Anderson.
This ball had somewhere to be. ☄️@TheRealSmith2_ | #LGM pic.twitter.com/aupBqe56vT
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 13, 2021
That meant Walker and the Mets had a lead going into the top of the fifth. At that point, Home Plate Umpire Joe West, fresh off his defamation suit victory over Paul Lo Duca, stopped being able to tell the difference between balls and strikes. To be fair to West a bit, Walker got a bit wild, and he wound up walking back-to-back hitters after striking out Andrew Knapp to start the inning.
At that point, Luis Rojas went to Miguel Castro, who seems to be becoming the Mets go-to reliever in these big spots. Castro did come up big first striking out Andrew McCutchen. Then, Roman Quinn would commit a mortal baseball sin by making the last out at third. Quinn blew it two different ways.
To be fair, he was absolutely safe initially on what first seemed like a well executed double steal. James McCann‘s throw to third was high, and it took Luis Guillorme jumping to prevent the ball from going into left field. Quinn appeared to assume it went to left field, and it looked like he started to go head for home. While this happened, Guillorme landed on Quinn assuring he was off the bag leading to the easy inning ending tag out.
Luis Guillorme playing tackle football out here…and it's working. pic.twitter.com/C8KRAnQ9YI
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) April 13, 2021
Walker’s final line was 4.1 IP, 3 H, R, ER, 3 BB, 8 K. Walker would not have qualified for the win. For some reason, you need to pitch five innings to earn a win in both a nine and seven inning game. You would think the rules would be re-calibrated for shortened seven inning double header games, but that makes too much sense. Then again, shortening games two innings makes zero sense in the first place.
That all became academic as Casto would lose the lead in the sixth. He did escape the fifth, but he got into trouble himself by issuing a lead-off walk to Rhys Hoskins in the sixth.
Bryce Harper followed with a single. Castro responded by striking out Bohm, and getting Gregorius to hit into a fielder’s choice. However, that was not enough as Segura hit one off the end of the bat. Guillorme charged in, but he couldn’t get it to first in time. That tied the score 2-2 and put more pressure on a feckless Mets lineup.
You could criticize Guillorme for fielding it with the glove costing him seconds. Of course, Segura was still safe by a pretty good margin. It’s also noteworthy Guillorme is a second baseman by trade, and he played that ball like the middle infielder he is. Of course, McNeil is much more experienced as third, but for some reason, the Mets want to go with the lesser defensive positioning.
Pete Alonso led off the sixth with a strikeout against Jose Alvarado dropping him to 0-fer his last 14, but unlike Conforto, he won’t be booed or dropped in the order. Speaking of Conforto, Alvarado threw at his head and missed and then later plunked him in the at-bat. Luis Rojas was irate and argued because for some reason Alvarado was not tossed from the game. The Mets would not make Alvarado and the Phillies pay for it as McCann would fly out to end the inning.
After a scoreless inning from Edwin Diaz, the Mets would have a chance to walk it off in the bottom of the seventh.
Guillorme, one of the few Mets doing anything offensively, led off the inning with a walk against Connor Brogdon. Jonathan Villar pinch ran, and then Kevin Pillar drew a walk.
The Mets offense would again falter. Nimmo stuck out. Francisco Lindor flew out, and then Smith struck out to end the inning.
That led to a combination of the two dumbest rules in baseball. The eighth inning began with a runner on second because this was a m seven inning game. Pure idiocy.
Trevor May wound up giving up an “unearned run” putting the Mets down 3-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth on a Gregorius infield single.
The bright side is the feckless Mets offense was gifted a runner at second. Hector Neris would be the one who had the task of keeping the Mets offense incapable of hitting with RISP.
The speedy Lindor quickly scored as Alonso finally got a hit driving home Lindor. McNeil hit into a fielder’s choice, and Conforto walked. McCann singled to load the bases.
Villar, who came on to pinch run for Guillorme, had his first big moment as a member of the Mets driving home McNeil to win the game.
.@JRvillar6 put this one in the books! ? #MetsWin! | #LGM pic.twitter.com/kVFRSPzQKm
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 13, 2021
It wasn’t the prettiest win, and it’s dumb gimmick baseball. That said, you take the win and get ready for the second half of the doubleheader.
Game Notes: Guillorme went 1-for-1 with two walks while batting eighth. He is now hitting .571 with a 1.299 OPS on the season. This was Castro’s fourth appearance over the Mets first six games. May earned his first win as a Met.
Due to the rain-out yesterday, the New York Mets split a series against the Miami Marlins. There was a lot which happened in the span of those three days, which is just an indication of just how bizarre the start to this season has been:
1. Not calling a game which had zero chance of ever getting played was a very Wilpon like decision. Hopefully, this is something that we will not see happen again.
2. Whenever there is a threat of rain, teams should just use an opener. It is not worth wasting a pitcher’s turn through the rotation in the hopes of a game being played. Instead of getting someone like Robert Gsellman some work, the Mets are going to have to wait until Friday to see Marcus Stroman again.
3. Aside from David Peterson, the Mets starting pitching has been quite good this season. The best surprise might’ve been Taijuan Walker who looked like the pitcher many thought he would be when he was once a top 10 prospect in the game.
4. Why bother reading the Wilpon owned Mets website, when you can come here and read it done first and better?
5. Jeff McNeil was swinging a good bat and ran into some bad luck before hitting that clutch homer. That bat flip was reminiscent of the Asdrubal Cabrera one.
6. The umpires completely blew it when ruling Michael Conforto was hit by the pitch to force in the game winning run. The fact replay can’t fix that error is a failure of the system.
7. Just when you thought that was bad, on Sunday Night Baseball, Alec Bohm never touched home plate, was ruled safe, and the call was somehow upheld on replay. What is the point of the system when you can’t get obviously blown calls corrected?
8. By the way, Travis d’Arnaud did an amazing job receiving that throw and blocking the plate. There really is no one better in the game than him at doing that, and it is also notable the Mets have spent a ton of money on catchers who are no better than him.
9. These two plays are reminiscent of when Chase Utley went out of the baseline, tackled Ruben Tejada, never touched the bag, and was ruled safe on replay and awarded second base. By the way, the manager who asked for that review and wound up winning partially because of that absurdity was Don Mattingly, so he can save us from listening to his whining.
10. The booing of Conforto was ridiculous. Yes, he had a really bad four game stretch as all players are going to have during the course of the season. You would just think a player of his stature who has been a good Met for this long would have a longer leash than four games.
11. Dropping Conforto in the line-up was a pure panic decision. It’s not like he’s the only Mets player not hitting. For example, there was no booing of Pete Alonso despite his being hitless over his last 11 at-bats, and no one wants him dropped in the order. Remember, Conforto was great last year whereas Alonso comparatively struggled.
12. No, this is not a call to boo Alonso. It is also not a call to boo McNeil who has one hit this year. The same goes for James McCann and Francisco Lindor who have matching .176 batting averages with no extra base hits. It is was too soon to boo any of these players.
13. Conforto is eventually going to break out of his slump due to the ebbs and flows of the baseball season. His being dropped to fifth, sixth, or even seventh in the order will have nothing to do with hit.
14. If this was about rewarding the best hitters, Luis Guillorme would be playing everyday. That goes double when you consider J.D. Davis hit the IL. Guillorme is literally hitting .500 in his limited playing opportunities.
15. Brandon Nimmo has been phenomenal to start the season. He has flat out been the Mets best player with a 223 OPS+ and a 1 OAA in center. He’s been locked in to start the season. Yes, it is too soon to talk All-Star or even MVP consideration, but he looks like he’s poised to have a great year.
16. Of course, no one is better than Jacob deGrom. On the season, he has allowed one run over 14.0 innings while striking out 21. We are running out of words to describe how great he is.
17. We’re also running out of ways to describe just how terrible the lack of run support he receives is. It is beyond a joke deGrom is 0-1 to start the year. It’s really difficult to pinpoint the reason, but there is no rational explanation why this keeps happening.
18. Congrats to Joe Musgrove for throwing the first no-hitter in San Diego Padres history. Doing that for the team you grew up rooting for is like Mike Baxter making the no-hitter saving catch for Johan Santana‘s. On that topic, Anthony DiComo certainly showed his true colors.
19. People need to stop this over the top criticism of Luis Rojas. We are five games into a disjointed season with COVID cancellations and front office blown decisions on a rain delay. Like all managers, he is not the one setting the lineup or deciding whether or not to play the games. He is working with the front office on these decisions, including scripting out how long the starters go and which relievers pitch. He’s just the face and fall guy for many of these decisions.
20. The Mets already have four games to make up this season. The bright side will be those games will come when Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco have returned.
When the Mets signed Taijuan Walker, the expectation was when everyone was healthy, he was going to be the team’s fifth starter. If his first start of the season was any indication, Walker is going to be much more than that.
Before delving into his first start as a member of the New York Mets, it is important to start with Walker the prospect. Before Walker was called up by the Seattle Mariners in 2013, he was a rated as a top 10 prospect in all of baseball.
John Sickels, then of Minor League Baseball, wrote Walker was in the conversation for “Best Pitching Prospect in Baseball honors.” Fangraphs said Walker “has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter.” Bleacher Report said “If you were to build a prototype for what you want in a potential No. 1 starter, Taijuan Walker would hit all the marks.” Baseball Prospectus said:
He produces seemingly effortless 92-98 mph velocity from his strong frame, presenting it to hitters on a steep downward plane. His cutter––which can touch 93 mph––is another potential plus-plus pitch; it has hard, short break with some late tilt, and he’ll use it as a weapon against both left- and right-handed hitters.
All told, the expectation was Walker was going to be a top of the rotation pitcher. It didn’t happen due to a combination of his being rushed to the majors and his dealing with injuries. In many ways, that made his 2020 season very important in that he had to prove he could stay healthy and that he could stick as a starter. By and large, he did that and more.
In 2020, Walker looked lack a solid middle to back end of the rotation starter. For a Mets team loaded with top of the rotation talent, this made New York a perfect landing spot for Walker. What no one really considered was what if Walker could be more than he has shown in recent years.
Notably, Walker has been about a five inning pitcher, but that was partially a function of the injuries. The same could also be said about his velocity dipping to the low 90s. On that point, Walker is a 28 year old pitcher reaching his prime, and he is a player who is another year away from injuries. It is very possible he is finally healthy again, and he is ready to pick up where his career left off before his first major injury.
Taijuan Walker, 96mph Fastball (foul) and 87mph Slider (Swinging K), Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/IUAc9lyxmF
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2021
Yesterday, Walker was throwing consistently in the mid to upper 90s. His average velocity was 95.4 MPH which is over 2 MPH faster than he threw last year. In fact, Walker hasn’t averaged 95 with his fastball since 2014. As noted by Michael Mayer of MMO, Walker hit 97 MPH with his fastball, a mark Walker had not hit in four years.
We also saw Walker was tighter with his release points. More than that, we saw Walker was able to get more spin on all of his breaking pitches. The end result was a pitcher who was more difficult to pick up. With him pitching like that, the Marlins went hitless through the first 4.1 innings, and when the Marlins did make contact, Walker generated weaker contact.
This should come as no surprise for two reasons. First, as noted, he’s healthy. Second, as noted in an interview with Fangraphs, Walker has been working at Driveline to see how analytics could help make him a better pitcher. He used the analytics to hone his pitching and get the most out of his talent.
In terms of his first start with the Mets, we saw what health and increased work on his craft could do for him. The Walker we saw yesterday did not look like the back end of the rotation starter we all thought the Mets were getting when he signed a free agent contract. Rather, Walker looked like the top of the rotation pitcher many expected him to be when he was first called up to the majors.
This is a very exciting development for Walker and the New York Mets. With more games like this under his belt, the sky is the limit for both Walker and the Mets chances of winning the World Series in 2021.
Being a starting pitcher isn’t always fair. You can have a great outing like Taijuan Walker and still not get the win.
Walker came out throwing heat hitting 97 MPH on his fastball. With a little help from Francisco Lindor, he’d keep the Miami Marlins hitless through 4.1 innings.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml
The problem for Walker was the Mets offense was non-existent. Well, their offense with runners in scoring position.
Brandon Nimmo led off the bottom of the first with a double, and he was stranded. In the third, Lindor and Michael Conforto drew a pair of two out walks only for Pete Alonso to foul out.
In the fourth, the Mets loaded the bases with one out, but Walker couldn’t help his own cause hitting into the inning ending double play. Finally, the Mets would break through in the fifth, but they were unlucky.
The Mets loaded the bases with one out with Dominic Smith at the plate. Smith hit a long fly to center which looked like it would clear the bases one way or another. Instead, Starling Marte would make a great read and play limiting Smith to a sacrifice fly.
Unfortunately, Walker gave the lead right back. Mets killer Jon Berti singled to lead off the inning. Walker came very close to picking him off, and it would cost him.
Corey Dickerson hit a double to right, and when Conforto fumbled with the ball which bounced off the wall towards center, Berti scored easily. Marte would later move Dickerson to third on a fielder’s choice.
Walker then battled Jesus Aguilar. Aguilar had a great at-bat battling back from 0-2, checking his swing on a nasty pitch, and then singling home the go-ahead run on a full count.
On the bright side, the Mets bullpen, who struggled in Philadelphia, was excellent. Miguel Castro, Trevor May, and Edwin Diaz combined for three scoreless innings which gave the Mets a chance in the bottom of the ninth.
Jeff McNeil, who for reasons beyond comprehension is only batting seventh in the lineup, led off the ninth after starting the season 0-for-10. Actually, make that, 1-for-11.
Bottom 9. Down 1. Home opener. Also your birthday.
Seems like a good time for a DINGER! ? pic.twitter.com/joFGHyyD1f
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 8, 2021
That homer off Marlins closer Anthony Bass tied the score at 2-2. The Mets weren’t done.
Luis Guillorme pinch hit for Diaz, and he hit an infield single to second. After Nimmo doubled, the Marlins walked Lindor to load the bases to put the pressure on Conforto who has been struggling at the plate.
What looked like strike three nicked Conforto’s shoulder forcing home the winning run. Conforto successfully stuck his elbow out to get the win.
It was quite the redemption story for Conforto who needed that hit. It was also a great start to the season for Diaz getting that win. It’s even better the Mets won their first game of the season.
Game Notes: Dellin Betances was put on the IL with a shoulder impingement. Trevor Hildenberger was called up to join the bullpen.
Maybe this is just the excitement which comes from Opening Day. Certainly, that is amplified by new ownership, the Francisco Lindor extension, and Jacob deGrom taking the mound. However, taking everything into account, this New York Mets team is the best one we have seen since 2015 and probably 2006.
Like most times the Mets are good, they are going to be led by pitching. Their starting staff is great, and when healthy, it is the best in baseball. Part of the reason why is deGrom is still the best pitcher in baseball. Behind him right now is Marcus Stroman. Stroman has made adjustments and added new pitches, and he looks set for a career year. That is really saying something considering he has been a gamer his entire career, and he was the World Baseball Classic MVP.
Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Carrasco may be the two most underrated pitchers in baseball. Looking at their FIP, they pitch at or near an ace level. In this rotation, they may be no better than third or fourth starters. It’s not just doing deGrom-Stroman-Syndergaard-Carrasco. This is one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball.
Behind that quartet is Taijuan Walker who was once a top 100 prospect, and he seems poised to take a big step forward after using analytics to help him improve. After Walker, the Mets have David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto, each of whom could be around a three in most rotations. For the Mets, they will eventually be on the outside looking in.
They are all going to be better pitchers because they have the tandem of James McCann and Tomas Nido behind the plate. Both of these players are strong catchers who are excellent pitch framers. Having catchers like that behind the plate make good pitchers even better. When your starting pitching is great and operating at a high level, you are going to win a lot of games.
This is paired with an incredible lineup. They Mets have an embarrassment of riches on that front. Consider Francisco Lindor, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil have each been All-Star lead-off hitters, and they aren’t even the Mets best lead-off hitter. That’s Brandon Nimmo. With that group plus Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith, their 1-6 of their lineup can and probably should be hitting in the middle of the order.
Now, this Mets team isn’t perfect. Far from it. The first problem is their bullpen. The good news on that front is between Edwin Diaz and Trevor May, they have the last two innings covered well. The hope is at least one of Dellin Betances, Miguel Castro, or Jeurys Familia can figure it out to become that seventh inning reliever. That is at least until Seth Lugo is good to return. When that happens the Mets bullpen will be in great shape.
Another factor there is the Mets have some other interesting options. Sooner or later, Drew Smith will be healthy and ready to rejoin the bullpen. It should also be noted when the Mets have their full rotation, someone like Lucchesi can move down to the bullpen where his churve could be a weapon on par with Lugo’s curveball.
The other issue is the defense. Simply put, having J.D. Davis at third is unacceptable. He can’t remotely field the position. Having Dominic Smith behind him makes the left side defense one of the worst in baseball. To that, they may not be the worst in the division with the Atlanta Braves probably being worse with Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna.
It’s very possible Brandon Nimmo can succeed with positioning in center. After all, he’s had positive OAAs in center most of his career, and he does have the speed for the position. Jeff McNeil seems more comfortable at second, and while Alonso has his defensive issues, he is quite adept and receiving throws around first.
While the lineup has serious defensive issues, the bench does not. Luis Guillorme is a Gold Glove caliber defender. Albert Almora and Kevin Pillar are also quite good. With the lead, we can and should see Luis Rojas run all three out with Smith moving to first base. When that happens, the Mets defensive alignment turns from questionable to really strong.
Therein lies the key. Aside from health, Rojas is going to be the biggest key to this Mets season. He is going to need a deft touch as to when to utilize his defensive replacements. He and Jeremy Hefner are also going to have to get their rotation healthy through the season, which is all the more challenging because of the shortened season last year. They are also going to have to find the right mix in the bullpen while making sure they don’t overuse their best relievers.
Right now, the Mets have the right mix to have a great season. They also have an owner willing to invest in the team, and they have Sandy Alderson in charge, who we know will not be shy making a key trade or two to improve this Mets roster.
Looking at the Braves, their pitching has durability issues, and their defensive issues may be worse than the Mets. The Phillies don’t have the starting pitching, and their bullpen was a disaster last year. The Marlins are young and not deep. The Nationals still don’t know what they are going at key positions on the field.
Taking everything into account, the Mets are the best team in the National League East. If Rojas is up to the task, and there is every reason to believe he will be, the Mets are well poised to return to the postseason again and let their pitching take them back to the World Series.
In case you were wondering just how much the Wilpons have scarred New York Mets fans, we see the reactions to the Francisco Lindor contract discussions. Seeing it, you’d think the Wilpons were again outbid for a borderline MLB reliever.
It should be noted the Mets have offered Lindor a 10 year/$325 million contract. That’s an AAV of $32.5 million which would pay Lindor until he’s 37 years old.
It would make it the largest contract in Mets history given to David Wright by more than double. It would fall only short of Mookie Betts and Mike Trout for the largest extensions in MLB history. It’s on par with the extension given to Fernando Tatis, Jr., and it would put him only behind Bryce Harper in the division.
Yes, Lindor has every right to negotiate for every last penny, and he’s in his right to reject that offer. After a big year, he could get a better offer, and perhaps he won’t. That said, you have to respect him betting on himself.
That’s what this is. It’s a mixture of Lindor thinking he’s worth more and betting on himself. You can say that because the Mets made an extremely fair and reasonable offer.
It’s part of a completely different offseason for the Mets where they added a lot of payroll. Seriously, you wouldn’t see the Wilpons make these moves in one offseason let alone two or three:
- Francisco Lindor $22.3 million
- Marcus Stroman $18.9 million
- Carlos Carrasco $12 million
- Taijuan Walker $10 million
- James McCann $8.15 million
- Trevor May $7.75 million
- Kevin Pillar $3.6 million
- Jonathan Villar $3.55 million
- Aaron Loup $3 million
- Albert Almora $1.25 million
- Jose Martinez $1.0 million
- Joey Lucchesi ~ $600k
Adding those salaries up, the Mets added $92.1 million. Read that again. The Mets added $92.1 million to the 2021 payroll.
What exactly about that is the same old Mets? If it’s missing out on Trevor Bauer, George Springer, or not extending Lindor yet, it’s over focusing on the negative. Likely, it’s schtick, scarring from the Wilpon era, or just a want to be miserable.
Whatever happens with Lindor will happen. We can judge that on Opening Day as well as the 2021 season and beyond. Whatever the case, this is a very different Mets organization than we’ve seen from the Wilpons, and it should be viewed and treated as such.
If this was just based on performance, Corey Oswalt has been one of the New York Mets best pitchers this Spring Training, and as a result, he should be on the Opening Day roster. If nothing else, we have heard on a number of occasions Luis Rojas has been impressed with how Oswalt has looked.
Corey Oswalt was dealing. ♠️♣️♥️♦️ pic.twitter.com/CWHzj2eo3E
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 15, 2021
One of the biggest developments for Oswalt has his finding that extra gear on his fastball. Now, this could be the result of his going shorter stints during the Spring. It could also be the result of the Mets making more advanced data available to their pitchers and coaching staff. Whatever the case, that velocity is there right now.
If the concern is he couldn’t maintain it as a starter, the Mets do have spots open in the bullpen due to injuries this Spring. In his first Spring appearance, he struck out five of the six St. Louis Cardinals batters he faced. Now, it should be noted that came against mostly minor league players for the Cardinals, but it did happen.
More importantly, as noted, the velocity happened, and according to reports, it is something that has carried forward into team workouts and B games. Long story short, Oswalt has seemingly made the jump that took him from a fifth starter ceiling to possibly something more as a Major League pitcher.
In years past, especially given the injury to Carlos Carrasco, that could have meant a shot at joining the Mets Opening Day rotation. However, with David Peterson‘s emergence last year coupled with the acquisitions of Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto at the moment, there is no spot for Oswalt in the rotation in the short or long term.
That would mean the bullpen is the best destination for Oswalt. In many ways, it makes sense to send him there. He’s shown the increased velocity and effectiveness in the shorter spurts. Moreover, with Seth Lugo down, the Mets really need someone to fill that role. No, no one is saying Oswalt could be a Lugo in the bullpen, but rather, he can definitively be the type of reliever who can give the Mets multiple innings out of the bullpen.
Given the truncated 2020 season, that is of increased performance. It is also noteworthy with Taijuan Walker and some combination of Lucchesi, Peterson, and Yamamoto for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, the Mets are running three 5+ inning starters out there. That puts a stress on the bullpen to pick up the slack, especially when that happens three consecutive games.
Having Oswalt out there can alleviate some of that burden. Really, of all the pitchers currently in camp, it is just him and Robert Gsellman who can fill that type of a role. Given the rotation, the Mets probably need two or more pitchers who can reliably give you 2+ innings.
In some ways, just picking a role for Oswalt is what can best help him succeed as a pitcher. Remember, this is a pitcher who has bounced between starting and relieving for three years now. That has been coupled with abusive use and inexplicable fallow periods. If nothing else, this would put Oswalt in the best position to succeed.
If he succeeds, he can then help the Mets succeed in 2021. He has the increased velocity, and he has the ability to eat some innings for the bullpen. Looking at performance and need out there, Oswalt should be in the Opening Day bullpen.
When teams assemble their pitching rotations, they typically assemble them in order of the talent of their top starters. Taking the New York Mets as an example, Jacob deGrom will be the Opening Day starter. After him, with Carlos Carrasco possibly delayed to start the season and Noah Syndergaard on the 60 day IL, it is fairly clear right now Marcus Stroman would be the second starter.
If you are taking the long term view of the season, Stroman should not be the second starter. Yes, he is the second best starter available, and if this was Game 2 of a postseason series, you would definitively be handing him the ball. However, in the regular season, that does not make any sense.
Looking at deGrom, since he has been the best pitcher in baseball, he has averaged 6.1 innings per start. If you look at the two seasons prior to 2020, he averaged 6.2 innings. That means whenever he takes the ball, the bullpen is getting a break. That is important when you consider the bullpen gets increasingly taxed and taxed with each start. To that, here is the average innings per start over the last four seasons for the Mets projected 2021 rotation options:
- Jacob deGrom 6.1
- Noah Syndergaard 6.0
- Carlos Carrasco 6.0
- Marcus Stroman 5.2
- Taijuan Walker 5.0
- David Peterson 5.0
- Joey Lucchesi 5.0
- Jordan Yamamoto 4.2
Now, the Mets seemed to be blessed with pitchers who tend to go deeper into games than most teams. Still, when fully healthy, this will be a rotation with two 5+ inning starters at the back end of their rotation. That means a bullpen who gets increasingly used after deGrom starts will be asked to provide a lot more without much of a break.
That was something which truly presented an issue for the Mets during deGrom’s first Cy Young campaign. Yes, he received little to no run support far too often that season. However, he also would see the bullpen blow a number of late leads for him. Part of the result is that the bullpen had been taxed heading into his starts. Rather than having the bullpen in the best possible shape to secure a win from their ace, they were on fumes hoping for deGrom to give them a break.
That is partially how you take a season for the ages and turn it into a 11-10 record for deGrom. That is both a reflection of how wins and losses for a pitcher are overrated. However, it is also an indication that something is going wrong that a pitcher who is setting records can’t buy a win.
If we were to look at the current Mets rotation, the bullpen is going to be well rested when deGrom takes the mound. Typically speaking, they will need to get about 6-8 outs in a game. That will leave them well rested. That is exactly the right time to line up the bullpen for a Walker start.
Typically speaking, Walker provides 5+ innings in a start. After deGrom, the bullpen will be well poised to provide that. Of course, after that, the Mets will have run through some of their bullpen. That is when you combat that by going to Syndergaard or Carrasco (if healthy) or Stroman. The Mets can then go to their 5+ inning fifth starter whether that is Luccesi, Peterson, or Yamamoto. Finally, the Mets could then go to Stroman who can eat some more innings before handing the ball back to deGrom.
By restructuring the rotation in that fashion, the Mets are positioning their bullpen to get breaks here and there. You are getting them regular work, and you are avoiding some fallow periods where they are not getting work because the top pitchers are eating up innings. Overall, the general concept is to stagger the pitchers by the innings they will reasonably provide instead of just lining them up without any concept on the impact it will have on the bullpen and staff as a whole.
Hopefully, that means a better rested Edwin Diaz. It could mean less of a need to rely on Seth Lugo for multiple innings when he returns. It could mean not needing to have the Triple-A to MLB shuttle for pitchers like Drew Smith. Instead, pitchers are put in a position where they get regular rest and work. That should help them succeed, and it should help prevent them from blowing games for deGrom.