Steven Matz
This was a strange year in the National League Manager of the Year race. All the teams that were supposed to be contenders were actually contenders despite most of those teams suffering brutal injuries.
That Nationals lost Stephen Strasburg for a good part of the year and will likely not have him in the postseason. The Mets lost Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, David Wright, and Lucas Duda for a good portion of the season. At one point, the Dodgers entire starting projected rotation was on the disabled list with the most crushing blow being a Clayton Kershaw trip to the disabled list. The Cardinals have had their shortstops, Jhonny Peralta and Aledmys Diaz, on the disabled list with injuries, and they lost their closer Trevor Rosenthal. Even the Cubs suffered a huge injury with Kyle Schwarber going down with a torn ACL. With these teams overcoming those injuries, it could be quite difficult to determine who was actually the best manager in the National League this season. Taking all that into consideration, here is my ballot:
1st Place – Dave Roberts
A large part of his award goes to Roberts because of what he did despite his team being the most injured team in all of baseball. By the first week of the season, he lost two members of his starting rotation with Brett Anderson and Hyun-Jin Ryu. He would also lose important bullpen arms in Carlos Frias, Yimi Garcia, and Chris Hatcher for the year. He’d also deal with the most dramatic injury of all when Kershaw went down with a back injury.
When Kershaw made his last start before heading to the disabled list, the Dodgers were 41-36, eight games behind the Giants in the West and a game behind the Marlins for the second Wild Card. From that point forward, the Dodgers have the second best record in baseball. They have won the NL West for the second year in a row, and they seem poised to make a deep run in the postseason.
That’s not the only reason why Roberts is the Manager of the Year. He’s also capably handled a number of tricky situations that would have the potential to flummox other managers and potentially poison some clubhouses. He had to get Howie Kendrick to accept being a utility player and eventually an outfielder. He had to get one last great season out of Chase Utley. He would pull rookie Ross Stripling while he had a no-hitter going because it was the best thing for the young player’s career and the Dodgers’ future.
Clearly, Roberts has been unafraid to make the tough decisions. He had control of the clubhouse. He avoided near disaster, and he led his team from eight games back to win the NL West. That’s Manager of the Year material.
2nd – Joe Maddon
In reality, any other year this award would go to Maddon. Maddon has established himself as the best manager in the game.
Maddon was handed a roster that was easily a World Series favorite, and he delivered during the regular season. Not only did he get another great season from Jake Arrieta, but he also got better years from Jon Lester and John Lackey. By the way, somehow he got a Cy Young caliber season out of Kyle Hendricks.
We also saw Maddon play mad scientist like he loves to do. When Schwarber went down, Maddon took his budding superstar Kris Bryant and turned him into a Ben Zobrist type of player. It probably helped Bryant that he had the actual Zobrist on the team to give him some pointers. Additionally, never one to stay at the status quo, Maddon experimented using multiple relievers on the field.
On June 28th, Maddon would actually play Spencer Patton and Travis Wood in the outfield in a 15 inning game against the Reds. It actually worked out well for the Cubs. Patton started the 14th inning on the mound and Wood in left field. When Jay Bruce came up to bat, Maddon would switch them around to get Bruce out. After the Bruce at bat, Maddon switched them back so Patton could get Adam Duvall out. This was reminiscent of the 1986 game where Davey Johnson was forced to shift Jesse Orosco and Roger McDowell between left field and the pitcher’s mound due to a Ray Knight ejection leaving the Mets without another position player. However, Maddon wasn’t forced into the decision. There wasn’t an injury or an ejection. Rather, Maddon did it because he simply believed it gave the Cubs the best chance to win the game.
That is the type of progressive thinking that has made Maddon the best manager in the game, and it has helped the Cubs to a 100 win season with the best record in baseball. If not for the terrific season Roberts had, Maddon would have won this quite easily.
3rd – Dusty Baker
Last year, the Nationals were done in by a toxic clubhouse and a terrible manager in Matt Williams. In the offseason, the Nationals did what they had to do in firing Williams, and then they had to settle on Baker as their manager.
Baker has always been a curious case. He has never been a favorite of the Sabermetrically inclined. He makes curious in-game decisions (hello Russ Ortiz), and he has a tendency to over rely on veterans over young players that are probably better and can do more to help the team win. Despite all of that, Baker has won wherever he has gone. He has brought the Giants, Cubs, Reds, and now the Nationals to the postseason. The reason is Baker is a manager that gets the most out of his players.
It wasn’t easy for him this year. Bryce Harper had a down year, Jonathan Papelbon wouldn’t last the season as either the closer or as a National, and Ben Revere would show he was not capable of being the center fielder for a good team. Worse yet, Strasburg went down with injury despite Baker actually being someone careful with his young pitcher. So how’d he do it. Well, he got career years from Daniel Murphy and Wilson Ramos. In a sign of growth, Baker trusted a young player in Trea Turner to not only play everyday, but also to play out of position. Mostly, Baker was Baker.
Overall, it is clear that Baker has some innate ability to get his teams to play well. He did that again this year in turning around a Nationals team that fell apart last year to a team that comfortably won the NL East.
Honorable Mention – Terry Collins
By no means did Collins have a strong year this year. You can point to the injuries, but he did do a lot to exacerbate them by playing players who he knew was injured. He had a year where he messed around with Michael Conforto‘s development and threatened the career of Jim Henderson by abusing his surgically repaired shoulder for a “must-win” game in April. Furthermore, he flat out abused the arms of Hansel Robles, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia. So no, Collins is not deserving of the award.
However, he is deserving of an honorable mention with the class and dignity he comported himself in the aftermath of Jose Fernandez‘s death. He made sure his team was there to console the Marlins, and he prepared his team to win games when some of his own players were devastated by Fernandez’s death. This was one of the many acts of kindness Collins has shown as the Mets manager, and it should be highlighted.
Tonight marks Seth Lugo‘s last start in what has been an already incredible season for him. More than any other pitcher in the Mets organization, it was unlikely that Lugo would find himself in this position.
After 14 starts and a 6.93 ERA for AAA Las Vegas, the Mets organization decided Lugo should not be a starting pitcher. It was certainly understandable. The Mets major league team was flush with young starting pitching with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz. Zack Wheeler was supposed to join them soon as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Mets needed a spot starter, there was Logan Verrett, who did the job quite admirably last year, and Sean Gilmartin, who pitched well in the majors last season. When you also consider the Mets had well regarded pitching prospects in Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, it was seemingly time to move Lugo to the bullpen. At 26 years old, it was probably his best chance to make it to the majors.
Lo and behold, that’s exactly how he would make it to the bigs. In his first major league appearance, he unleashed what was then the best curveball ever thrown in the Statcast Era. The pitch fooled Anthony Rizzo, a player who finished in the top four in MVP voting last year, is a three time All Star, and is hitting .305/.395/.579 with 23 homers and 72 RBI off right-handed pitching. Right then and there Lugo not only showed that his curveball may be the best pitch in the entire Mets system, but that he belongs in the major leagues.
Lugo would continue to show he was a major leauger in his next nine appearances. In those appearances, he pitched 17.0 innings with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP. In those appearances, he limited batters to a .185/.273/.222 batting line.
Then disaster struck – not to Lugo, but to the Mets starting rotation. With Lugo pitching well out of the bullpen, he soon found himself in the one place no one thought he was ever going to be. The starting rotation. In his first start, Lugo was much better than anyone ever imagined pitching 6.2 innings against the Giants. He was able to be economical with his pitches thereby allowing him to go deep into the game despite it being his first start in two months.
From there, Lugo has shown he belongs in the rotation. In Lugo’s seven starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP. When there are runners in scoring position, Lugo has shown the ability to bear down (some would call it luck) adding a few extra MPH to his fastball and relying a little more heavily on a curveball that generates both swings and misses as well as groundballs. As a result, batters are only hitting .163/.259/.233 off of him in those situations.
That’s where Lugo finds himself on his last start of the regular season. He’s taking the mound against the Marlins in the hopes of dropping the Mets magic number to clinch one of the Wild Card spots from four to three or two. He’s also making his case that he should pitch the Wild Card Game in the event Syndergaard has to pitch in the regular season finale on Sunday. He’s also making the case he should be the third starter over Gsellman this postseason.
He’s also making the case that he belongs in the long term plans of the New York Mets. He’s already done a terrific job of doing that so far. Another strong start here and a good postseason, it’ll be a guarantee.
There is a fine line between being aggressive and going for it and just flat out panicking. The way Terry Collins managed last night was clearly the former.
In his two innings of work Gabriel Ynoa was getting hit by the Phillies. He allowed five hits, two runs, two earned, and one walk with only one strikeout. There were no extra base hits or any balls hit particularly hard. Still, Ynoa wasn’t fooling anyone. With him having already thrown 43 pitches, it was hard to imagine him going deep in the game.
However, no reasonable person could expect what happened next.
Travis d’Arnaud hit a two out RBI double to pull the Mets within 2-1. Then, rather than let Ynoa make his obligatory out to end the inning, Collins pinch hit Ty Kelly for Ynoa. In the second inning, Collins chased the run and pulled his starter from the game. If it’s Game Seven of the World Series where there’s no tomorrow, and you have your full compliment of arms, sure; why not? However, the Mets do have a game tomorrow.
By the way, in that game, the Mets are starting Sean Gilmartin because Noah Syndergaard has strep throat. Gilmartin’s last start was over a month ago. This means, at best, you can expect him to go five innings. More likely, you’re going to get less than that. With that in mind, you need as many guys as you can pitch tomorrow.
The Mets also needed to rest their bullpen as they have been taxed lately. Here is the breakdown in how much they’ve been used this week:
- Sunday 4.1 innings
- Monday 5.1 innings
- Tuesday 3.2 innings
- Wednesday 2.1 innings
- Thursday 6.0 innings
With that usage, Collins was asking his bullpen to find him seven innings the day before he was likely going to have to go deep into the bullpen again. Also, Sunday’s starter is Robert Gsellman who is averaging 5.2 innings per start meaning the Mets will most likely need to go deep into their bullpen again.
However, that’s addressing the future; a future that Collins ignored. Let’s focus on yesterday’s game.
Heading into the game, Collins already announced Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia were unavailable. Gilmartin is unavailable as he’s pitching tomorrow. All of the Mets arms have been used multiple times all week meaning the fresh arm in the bullpen was Logan Verrett. Verrett was where Collins went.
This season Verrett has a 5.22 ERA. Batters are hitting .284/.364/.530 off of him. While Ynoa hasn’t been great in his limited major league sample size, but there was no reason to believe Verrett would actually be a better option. If the Mets truly believed that Verrett was the better option, he would have been named the starter when it was announced Steven Matz was being shut down for the season.
Verrett would go out there and pitch two pretty ugly innings of his own. He allowed a leadoff homer to Maikel Franco in the third. He would then load the bases in the fourth, and he would narrowly escape the jam.
With Verrett pitching poorly, Collins would have to desperately find guys to go multiple innings to try to avoid going to Reed and Familia.
He first tried Josh Smoker. In his second inning of work, Darin Ruf would hit a two run homer off of him. Erik Goeddel would come in for Smoker and pitch a clean inning.
Despite his history of arm problems, Collins would try to push Goeddel another inning. When he got into a jam, Collins brought in Josh Edgin for a batter. After Edgin allowed a single, Collins did what he usually does in these situations. Collins brought in Hansel Robles not just to get out if the jam, but also to pitch the final 2.2 innings to get the win.
Robles did his job as did most of the Mets bullpen last night. However, Collins didn’t. He put the Mets in a position to empty their bullpen of their worst relievers instead of allowing Ynoa to go deeper in the game.
Now, the Mets bullpen is taxed, and it she’s not PpeR things will get better for them anytime soon.
When a player goes down, the natural inclination is to go seek out a veterans to be the stop gap or replacement. The reaction is understandable because you want a steady presence with someone who has proven stats. Granted, it’s most likely going to be diminished stats, but people would rather deal with that than a young player who may not be ready and could be even worse than the veteran.
That’s why we saw the Mets make a move to re-acquire Kelly Johnson not too long after David Wright went down. It’s why the Mets acquired James Loney to replace Lucas Duda. It’s also why the Mets brought back Jose Reyes to help an injured and underperforming Mets offense. It’s also why the Mets traded for Jay Bruce rather than counting on Michael Conforto to return to form. For the most part, it has worked out for the Mets.
With that said, Reyes is the only imported veteran who is currently producing. Johnson is mired in a 12-54 slump. Loney has hit .253/.287/.337 since the All Star Break. Bruce has hit .181/.261/.297 since joining the Mets.
These underperforming veterans coupled with the Neil Walker and Wilmer Flores injuries have forced the Mets to turn to some youngsters.
T.J. Rivera has all but taken over the second base job for the rest of the year. In the five games since he became the starting second baseman, he is hitting .450/.455/.800 with two home runs. Both of those home runs proved to be game winners. For the season, he is hitting .344/.344/.492.
Yesterday, Conforto started for Bruce, who the Mets have taken to booing after every at bat. Conforto made the most of his opportunity going 2-4 with two RBI. In the four games he was given an opportunity to start since he was recalled when rosters expanded, Conforto has gone 4-16 with two doubles, two RBI, a walk, and a hit by pitch.
It’s not just the offensive players that are outprodicing the veterans, it is the young pitchers as well.
When Matt Harvey went down, the Mets understandably turned to Logan Verrett who did an admirable job filling in as a spot starter last year. Unfortunately, this year he had a 6.45 ERA as a starter in 12 starts. The Mets also went out and brought back Jon Niese who was actually worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates before undergoing season ending knee surgery.
With Verrett and Niese faltering and the injuries to Steven Matz and Jacob deGrom, the Mets had no choice but to go with their young pitchers.
First was Seth Lugo, who has arguably been the Mets best starter since he has joined the rotation. Lugo has made six starts going 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP. Including his nine relief appearances, Lugo is 4-2 with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP.
He is joined in the rotation by Robert Gsellman. Gsellman has made four starts and one relief appearance where he came in for Niese when he went down for good with his knee injury. Overall, Gsellman is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA and a 1.405 WHIP.
In addition to the offense and the rotation, the Mets have had Josh Smoker emerge in the bullpen. In 15 appearances, Smoker is 2-0 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP while bailing the Mets out of a few jams. More impressively, he is striking out 15.3 batters per nine innings.
Overall, these young and untested players have stepped up and helped take the Mets from an under .500 team to a team 11 games over .500 and in the top Wild Card spot.
The Mets have had a number of players serve as admirable replacements and stop gaps to help lead the Mets charge back to the postseason.
Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have replaced the injured Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz in the Mets rotation, and they have combined to go 6-3 with a 2.64 ERA and a WHIP in nine starts and 10 relief appearances. James Loney had a terrific first half to help cushion the blow of the loss of Lucas Duda. Wilmer Flores and Kelly Johnson have helped to replicate the offensive production of Neil Walker who is done for the season after having season ending back surgery. After Flores went down with a neck injury, T.J. Rivera had the game of his life. When Juan Lagares needed surgery to repair a torn ligament in this thumb and Yoenis Cespedes found himself unable to play center field with his injured quad, Curtis Granderson began playing center field and hitting again. Same goes for Alejandro De Aza. For the very few games Justin Ruggiano played, he mashed left-handed pitching.
However, while each of these players have done a better than expected job, there is no doubt the Mets would be better off with their regulars. Fortunately, the reinforcements are on their way with Lagares being activated off the disabled list.
With the minor league seasons having been over for about a week, Lagares has not had the benefit of being able to face live pitching. That shouldn’t matter much as Lagares’ true value has always been as a center fielder. This season the 2014 Gold Glover has returned to form with a 4.5 UZR and a 7 DRS in 59 games this season. This will allow the Mets to put out their best defensive alignment of Cespedes in left, Lagares in center, and Granderson in right late in games.
This was the alignment the Mets used effectively in the stretch run last season and in their run to the World Series. Speaking of which, Lagares was a tremendous contributor to the Mets postseason run last year. Lagares appeared in 13 postseason games last year playing a Gold Glove caliber center field while hitting .348/.375/.435 with two stolen bases. If Lagares is again able to play and raise his game again, the Mets chances of returning to the World Series will greatly improved.
And as if that wasn’t enough, Duda will be activated later today, and at a minimum, he will be available to pinch hit. On Sunday, deGrom will return to the rotation. He will start to work his way back as he’s limited to 75 pitches. Finally, Matz has been throwing off a mound.
The reinforcements are coming, and with them the Mets chances of winning a World Series has vastly improved.
After last night’s game, Terry Collins stated the obvious when he said Rafael Montero wouldn’t get another start. The natural follow-up Collins couldn’t quite answer yet was, “Who will replace Montero in the rotation?” Unfortunately, the Mets have few options.
Injured Starters
One of the reasons Montero is in the rotation to begin with is because Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz are injured. While there have been optimistic reports about them getting back on the mound, there are no indications either will be availsble to pitch on Saturday.
Right now, it seems deGrom is the closer of the two, but the Mets only intend to use him in the bullpen for now.
Skip the Fifth Starter’s Spot
With the Mets having an off day on Thursday, they can pitch everyone on normal rest for one turn through the rotation. If the Mets pursue this option, the team wouldn’t need a fifth starter until Wednesday, September 21st against the Braves.
This route accomplished two tasks. First, it allows the Mets to pitch their best (remaining) pitchers thereby giving them the best chance to win. Second, it gives deGrom and Matz a little more time to rejoin the rotation.
Gabriel Ynoa
If you’re judging Gabriel Ynoa by the 5.1 innings he has thrown in the majors, you wouldn’t want him or his 15.19 ERA anywhere near the mound. Worse yet, in Ynoa’s outings, he has been hit hard, and he has had trouble putting batters away.
However, it should be noted those are only 5.1 innings. It should also be noted Ynoa was pitching out of the bullpen in each of these spots, which is a very unfamiliar situation for him.
Ynoa also was on a hot streak before getting called up in September. In his final four starts of the season, he was 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. These are better numbers than what Montero had in AA when he was tabbed the fifth starter.
Logan Verrett
Mets fans have seen enough of Logan Verrett in the rotation this year. In his 12 starts, he was 1-6 with a 6.45 ERA and a 1.617 WHIP. These are terrible numbers, BUT they are better than what Montero is giving the Mets right now.
Sean Gilmartin
Unfortunately, the 2016 version of Sean Gilmartin had been nowhere near as good as the 2015 version. Whether it was due to the shoulder injury which put him on the seven day DL or not, the results aren’t there for him.
In 18 starts and one relief appearance in AAA, Gilmartin was 9-7 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. His worst month was August where he was 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP in three starts.
In his 11 appearances for the Mets this year, he has a 5.40 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. However, he has been pitching better of late. In his last six appearances, he has allowed only two runs with a 1.17 WHIP.
Bullpenning
With the publication of Brian Kenny’s new book, “Ahead of the Curve” there has been more and more discussion about the plausibility of the concept of bullpenning.
Bullpenning is when a team eschews a starting pitcher, and instead opts to go with their bullpen for all nine innings. With September call-ups, the Mets have a deeper bullpen certainly making this concept a plausible option.
With Fernando Salas, Addison Reed, and Jeurys Familia set for the last three to four innings, the Mets would only need to account for the first five to six innings of the game.
Now, given the fact that Ynoa, Verrett, and Gilmartin have not been stretched out in a while all three could give two innings each to begin the game. Hansel Robles has also shown the a ability to go multiple innings to either change the look batters see it to step in if one of the aforementioned pitchers falter.
Bullpenning could also be an avenue to start deGrom and Matz while still limiting their innings and pitch count.
As it stands at the moment, there is no obvious solution. With that in mind, the Mets are probably going to need a hybrid approach to replace Montero in the rotation.
Pick your reason why the Mets lost this game.
The first and obvious one was Rafael Montero. Montero’s final line was 1.2 innings, five hits, six runs, six earned, four walks, and two strikeouts. He probably wasn’t even that good either.
The sequence that perfectly sums up the night Montero had, as well as his Mets career, was his walking Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos with the bases loaded in the first inning.
Remarkably, Collins saw those 37 pitches and thought, “I want to see more of that!” Actually, you know what, it wasn’t all that surprising. Collins passed over a chance to hit for him in the second inning so he could get two more outs out of Montero before going to a rested Gabriel Ynoa or Sean Gilmartin. They’d eventually come into the game along with the other long man Logan Verrett.
For what it’s worth, Ynoa was roughed up as well pitching two innings allowing three hits, two runs, two earned, and two walks with one strikeout.
If Jacob deGrom or Steven Matz cannot come back quickly, the Mets are in trouble because they cannot keep doing this three more times this season. They probably can’t afford to do this even one more time.
Through Montero’s horrendous outing, you lose just how bad the Mets offense was. It’s quite easy to forget the Mets had a 1-0 lead with Yoenis Cespedes hitting an RBI groundout to score Jose Reyes, who had led off the game with a double. After that, the Mets did nothing against Mat Latos and the Nationals bullpen.
In fact, with Latos homering off Montero to lead off the second, he allowed as many runs as he knocked in. The only reason he didn’t get the win is he left the game early due to injury.
The Mets didn’t deserve to win this one, and they didn’t look like a team that was fighting for a Wild Card. To rub salt in the wound, Daniel Murphy was 3-5 with a double. Meanwhile, Neil Walker is done for the season with back surgery, and no one knows when Wilmer Flores can play again.
At least Kyle Hendricks took care of business against the Cardinals to keep the Mets a half game ahead of them in the Wild Card race.
For much of this season, it is fair to say that the Mets have underachieved which has put them in a fight for the Wild Card instead of a fight for the division. Nothing speaks more to that than the Mets going 3-13 against the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and the White Sox. Flip that, and you have the Mets a game up on the Nationals right now.
If you want to argue the Mets are in this position due to injuries, you have to admit the Mets have exacerbated those problems. Jim Henderson‘s usage may not have caused the shoulder impingement, how he was used early in the season certainly didn’t help. Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera were thrown out there game after game despite dealing with leg injuries. Neil Walker was playing everyday during the summer despite him not being able to feel his toes. This doesn’t even address pitching Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz with injuries of their own. Overall, the decisions to play these players was either Terry Collins‘ call or was a decision made in conjunction with him.
It’s important thing to keep in mind with Collins now being lauded for his managing and some wanting to put him in the Manager of the Year discussion. People want him in the discussion despite all that he has done to harm the Mets chances (and possibly players) to put them in position to return to the postseason. People want him in the discussion despite Collins making a poor decision each and every game that is at a minimum puzzling, and at worst prevents the Mets chances to win the game. Accordingly, after each game, I will have a separate entry highlighting Collins’ poor managerial decision making.
Yesterday, the Mets annihilated the Braves 10-3. In the fifth inning, the Mets had a 10-1 lead. The chances of blowing that game are next to nothing, and yet Collins kept his starters in virtually the entire game.
Asdrubal Cabrera has a balky knee. With the expanded rosters, the Mets had both Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds available to take over for him. Behind them were Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly. There was plenty of depth not just to get Cabrera out of the game, but also to have pinch hitters and infielders available. Instead, Collins kept him in until the eighth inning.
Yoenis Cespedes has had an injured quad that has hampered him for most of the season. Curtis Granderson has shown signs of fatigue with his playing center field. The Mets had Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto on the bench. Instead of getting Cespedes and Granderson out of the game, Cespedes played the full game and Granderson only came out in the eighth.
So no, Collins didn’t prevent the Mets from winning yesterday’s game. However, his decisions may have far-reaching implications for the Mets in the stretch run of the season.