Starling Marte
The St. Louis Cardinals are doing a “reset” and looking to part with some of their biggest contracts. As part of that, they’re looking to trade Nolan Arenado, who has named six teams he’s be willing to be traded.
One of those teams is the New York Mets. There’s a lot to consider when contemplating such a trade.
First, Arenado has three years $64 million remaining on his deal for whoever obtains him. The three years are broken down as $27 million (2025), $22 million (2026), and $15 million (2027). That’s not an onerous contract for the Mets.
Addressing Pete Alonso for a second, he turned down a 7 year $158 deal ($22.6 million AAV). As such, he’s likely going to carry a higher cost over the next three years than Arenado.
In theory, executing an Arenado trade would be cheaper than re-signing Alonso. As a result, the Mets could free up money to do other things like sign Sean Manae and rebuild their bullpen (again).
Before getting there, let’s analyze what Arenado is and is not; what he would do for the Mets.
First and foremost, Arenado brings defense. No, he’s not the otherworldly defender he was three years ago. He’s regressed into merely being ONLY the third best defensive third baseman in the game.
That addresses a major problem the Mets had. Mark Vientos’ bat was a revelation which took the Mets to new heights. His glove was better than advertised but still not good.
Vientos was the fifth worst defensive third baseman. Moving him to first already improves the Mets defensively. Replacing him with Arenado is like going from the discovery of the wheel directly to a race car.
Arenado and Francisco Lindor would immediately become the best defensive left side of the infield in the game. It could rival Rey Ordoñez and Robin Ventura. It would be that great.
A defensive upgrade like that makes the pitching staff better. With David Stearns optimizing run prevention, this would seem like the perfect move.
It’s far from a no brainer. After all, if you’re going to part ways with Alonso, you better be sure it’s the right decision.
The biggest hesitation with Arenado is the bat. He will be 34 on Opening Day, and he’s clearly in decline.
In 2022, Arenado posted a career best 149 wRC+. In the subsequent two years, he’s posted a 106 and a 102.
He’s coming off a year with a career worst in nearly every offensive metric. He barely barreled any pitches (3.2%), and he had a career low exit velocity. Both appear part of a career decline.
Simply put, he’s not hitting the ball hard anymore. He’s a league average hitter, and in all likelihood, he will soon be a below average hitter.
Now, Arenado’s defense is at a point where it can offset the dip in offense. He will likely be a productive player, and with his salaries deceasing, he should fulfill his contract.
Still, Alonso is a far superior hitter. In a down year, he had a 122 wRC+. He still has game changing power as evidenced in the NL Wild Card Series. Part of the issue for the 30 year old is how many more years he has as a premier slugger.
In an ideal world, the Cardinals would take back Starling Marte in a trade. However, it’s hard to see the Cardinals taking back a 36 year old right fielder making $20.75 million.
That could be the case even if the Mets were also willing to take on Steven Matz and his $12.5 million contract. As an aside, Matz would help in the bullpen.
If the deal makes sense, the Mets should go get Arenado. He will make them better. He probably raises the ceiling more than Alonso would. That all said, if the Mets go this route they better be right.
When looking at the New York Mets free agents, it’s obvious they need to push to keep Sean Manae. Of course, fans want to keep Pete Alonso.
However, when you break it all done, Jesse Winker might just be the most important free agent to re-sign this offseason.
Winker has had an interesting relationship with this franchise. First, he was an irritant. Then, he joined a Mets franchise he said he long wanted to play for. He following a massively disappointing post-trade deadline regular season with a great postseason.
With the postseason, we saw Winker slot nicely in as a platoon DH option. It was from that position, he did the most damage as a Met including his NLDS homer against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Looking at this Mets team, there isn’t a pure DH option available. Digging deeper into free agency, there isn’t a clear cut better option than Winker, and no, we’re not going to consider that horrendous human being, Marcell Ozuna, as an option.
Winker, 31, has been a solid hitter and on-base machine in his career. Over his eight year career, he has a 121 wRC+ and a .367 OBP. In many ways, you could describe him as Brandon Nimmo lite.
He’s at the tail end of his prime. After a troubling decline in his metrics the previous few seasons, he rebounded in 2024 showing an improved exit velocity, hard hit percentage, and barrel rate.
Mostly, with the Mets, he brings something different to the table. He brings an edge they haven’t had in years, and he has a way of getting under everyone’s skin the way he used to irritate Mets fans in previous seasons.
Going back to Nimmo for a moment, the Mets do need other everyday outfield options to help keep him healthy. For his part, Winker can play left field but can’t everyday. In all honesty, he’s one of the worst corner outfielders in the game as evidenced by the Mets keeping a hobbled Nimmo in left over him.
That said, it’s a 162 game season. The Mets can find spots for Winker to give Nimmo a day. There’s certainly value in that.
The other downside is he’s really just a platoon option at DH with a career 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. However, when looking at the Mets roster, that might be a benefit for them.
Starling Marte is 36, struggles against right-hand pitching, and might actually be a worse fielder than Winker. The Mets always need Mark Vientos in the lineup, but they don’t need his glove in the field. Francisco Álvarez can benefit from more days off behind the plate while getting consistent plate appearances.
All told, whether or not the Mets sign Juan Soto, Winker is a fit at DH. The team can use his bat from the left side at DH, his flair for the dramatic, and his edge. He’s the rare player built to thrive in New York, and the Mets should work quickly to keep him here.
As had been detailed here when the Mets fired Luis Rojas, Buck Showalter was never the right man to manage the New York Mets. When you’re looking to overall your organization top to bottom to be more analytically driven like the Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Tampa Bay Rays, you can’t hire someone who never was willing to adapt his style of managing to suit the modern game.
Assuredly, there were people who loved him. He talked a good game. He kept the media in check even despite the Mets collapse of yesteryear. A lesser respected manager would have routinely mocked for the way he handled the Joe Musgrove glistening ear situation in the deciding game three.
Perhaps, that was also the result of low expectations and an unwillingness to recognize just how good and deep the 2022 Mets roster was. Certainly, that was a driving force behind his winning Manager of the Year.
As for this year, he and the Mets were a bit snake bit. Edwin Díaz was injured during the World Baseball Classic. José Quintana had a cancer scare and bone graft surgery. Starling Marte never fully healed from offseason surgery. Justin Verlander was injured to start the season.
There was the Mets inability to adapt to the new rules right away. Max Scherzer had difficulty adapting to the old rules. The list goes on and on with that article from The Athletic doing him no favors in terms of just how ill suited he was for the job this season.
That’s not to say Showalter is too old to adjust. That’s unfair and unwarranted. He still has a sharp mind, and he knows what he knows. The issue is he was taught to manage a certain way, and that worked wonders for decades. He has just been unwilling to change.
Part of the issue is his apparent loyalty and affinity for older players. In the case of Tommy Pham, the Mets were better for it as Pham had a good year, and it led to a great trade at the deadline. However, in the case of Daniel Vogelbach, it severely damaged the team in the short term and the long term.
Maybe the Mets were always going to hire David Stearns. Certainly, it didn’t seem like an accident Craig Counsell‘s contract was up the same time as Stearns’, and Counsell wasn’t looking to sign a contract extension with the Milwaukee Brewers.
To that end, it does seem like Showalter was hired for two years with a chance to force himself upon Stearns. Certainly, if Showalter was more like Dusty Baker in his willingness to balance his strengths while accepting the analytics more, perhaps we would have seen Showalter remain on the job.
However, for better or worse, Showalter wanted to manage this team like he wanted to manage. In the case of players like Francisco Lindor, they loved him for it. Perhaps, they would’ve loved him more if he changed even a little bit, and the Mets won the World Series.
All this said, Showalter does deserve respect for taking this job and not embarrassing the Mets organization in the process. He did come at a time when things were going sideways, and he did in fact restore some public credibility, and he did keep the media pressure off in ways Bobby Valentine and Willie Randolph (two better Mets managers) ever could.
He deserved the dignity of being able to end it publicly on his terms. He earned the respect of his players, and he does deserve some gratitude from the fans, especially with all the damage that had been done to the organization since Brodie Van Wagenen and Mickey Callaway did, and the shadow it cast until Showalter’s hiring.
In all honesty, hopefully, we will see Showalter get one more crack at managing. Hopefully, like Baker, he will accept the game has changed, and we can see his strenghts carry him to that elusive World Series title. With that, he may eventually get into the Hall of Fame.
The New York Mets are a disaster at the moment. We have seen the return of the dreaded June Swoon with this team. They are 6-16 this month, and you can only see things getting worse.
The NL East is no longer within reach, and the same may be true for the Wild Card. The Mets are 16 games behind the Atlanta Braves. They are 8.5 games back in the Wild Card race. In the NL, only the St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, and Washington Nationals have a worse record than the Mets. The Mets have lost a series to all three of those teams.
During this time, Buck Showalter has been a disaster.
The lineups are not analytically driven. Starling Marte has never been the option to bat second, and he’s even less of one when he is not healthy. Really, Showalter has flaunted his disdain for analytics by pointing out how he used them to tell Tommy Pham what they had to say about him.
Showalter is getting testy with reporters who are finally seeking accountability. When pressed as to why he didn’t use David Robertson in the eighth when the game was on the line, Showalter sounded dumbfounded as to how he would use his closer during the most important part of the game.
What made that worse was while Showalter was espousing Adam Ottavino was unavailable, Ottavino was saying he was good to pitch. Fast-forward to the next game, we see Showalter using Robertson, Ottavino, and Brooks Raley in a loss. It would be difficult to argue he wasn’t being passive aggressive.
At this point, you have to start to wonder if Showalter is trying to get fired. Steve Cohen pumped all this money into analytics only for the manager to ignore it. That’s all well and good when you’re winning, but at the moment, no one is playing worse baseball than the Mets.
For some reason, Cohen is not acting. He is sitting idly by as all the money he has invested has been absolutely wasted. The analytics investments have been wasted by the manger. The money for payroll has been wasted by Billy Eppler who built a flawed roster. Moreover, the player development investment is being wasted.
We get back to Showalter here. Showalter would rather lose with veterans than try to win with rookies. He’s gone out of his way to marginalize the young players on this roster.
At some point, the focus needs to be on Cohen,. Why is he so content to allow his GM and manager to just waste hundreds of millions of dollars? Why is he not motivated to take action when the Mets are becoming laughingstocks again?
Yes, Eppler built a poor roster. Certainly, Showalter has gone out of his way to make things worse. However, in the end, Cohen has the ability to make changes, and he is not making them. Sooner or later, we need to hold him accountable for his inaction.
The danger with calling up Mark Vientos was that Buck Showalter was not going to play him. That is just Showalter’s instincts when it comes to young players. While veterans need not have to produce to keep a roster spot, young players have to go above and beyond to earn playing time.
When Brett Baty was first called up, he was immediately put into a platoon at third base with Eduardo Escobar. What was bizarre about that was Baty was called up to the majors specifically because of Escobar’s struggles. Baty has since played his way out of the platoon.
For two years running, the Mets said when Francisco Álvarez was called up to the majors, he was going to be the primary catcher. However, when Álvarez was called up after the Omar Narváez injury, Showalter first made Álvarez the back-up to Tomás Nido.
Eventually, Nido’s struggles and eye issues forced him to the IL, and now Álvarez is the primary catcher. However, even with Álvarez being the Mets best hitter for over a month now, he still bats ninth.
That brings us back to Vientos.
Vientos was called up because Daniel Vogelbach was not hitting for power, and he was slumping. Tommy Pham was not getting it done either from the DH spot. Mostly, the Mets needed more power in their lineup. Given the power display Vientos was exhibiting in Triple-A coupled with him dramatically cutting down on the strikeouts, the Mets were almost forced to call him up.
When he was first called up, it looked genius. Vientos would homer off of Ryan Thompson to tie the game and spark what would be the Mets best win of the season. Notably, Vientos was just one of four players over the past three seasons to homer off of Thompson’s slider:
Good thing they didn’t call up Mark Vientos sooner.
— Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) May 18, 2023
Even with the homer, the Mets would not get him back into the lineup. He sat against the right-handed Taj Bradley. However, he would get into the lineup again against the right-handed Cal Quantrill. In that game, Vientos came up with the big base hit off Emmanuel Clase in the 10th to pull the Mets within a run.
For Vientos, that was two games played with two big hits producing an RBI. Despite that, he would not appear in the lineup until two games later. Being fair here, one of the games he missed the first half of a doubleheader. Still, after two big hits, Showalter’s inclination was to sit Vientos for two straight games.
Vientos struggled against Shane Bieber, who was excellent over eight innings. Then again, the Mets lineup only produced two runs on seven hits for the day.
Vientos would start at DH in the first game of the series against the Chicago Cubs with Drew Smyly taking the mound. After going 0-for-2 with two strikeouts, Showalter pinch hit Vogelbach for Vientos when the right-handed Jeremiah Estrada relieved Smyly.
When Showalter pinch hit for Vientos, there were runners on first and second with one out. Vogelbach flied out with Francisco Lindor and Alonso moving up. You’ll note when Starling Marte, the Mets worst hitter this season, came to the plate, Showalter did not use Jeff McNeil to pinch hit for him. Instead, he left Marte in to ground out killing the Mets chances of getting back into that game.
With Marcus Stroman taking the hill, Vientos was again on the bench in favor of Vogelbach. Vogelbach was 0-for-3 with a strikeout. Again, Vogelbach had the type of performance which led to Vientos getting called up.
Taking all into account, here is where we are. Vientos was impactful the first two games but has not been since. He is struggling with sporadic playing time going 2-for-13 at the plate with a homer and two RBI (65 wRC+).
Vientos is not producing enough at the moment. He has also been taken out the rhythm he was in Triple-A with the sporadic playing time he has had. Put the blame where you want it, but the end result is Vientos not playing frequently and not producing the way he did even when he was first called-up.